Can that be right? What does it mean? I have learned a ton on CR over the past year or so, but that chart seems more ominous than anything else I've seen. Perhaps someone with knowledge of the banking system can explain why a net negative reserve for the entire system is not alarming?
From the article in the below link is this quote: "In another report on Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department said net overall capital flows in the country fell to its lowest level in four months in January. The inflows were not sufficient to cover the month's U.S. trade deficit." Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
When there is insufficient inflow, how instantaneous is the counter balancing move? Is it on the order of 1 month as short term loans and CP cannot get funded? Or is there a longer lag?
Anonymous said: "What is great about Sebastian for bears is that he confirms here daily that the recession is still not priced in the market."
Thank-you. See what I mean about how deceptive a chart can be based on its implication? There is an automatic assumption of recession, even in the absence of reliable confirming evidence.
LEH is clearly on death watch. I'm sure all the employees are glued to their Bloomberg terminals.
Been there, done the equivalent when Worldcom went down. I had worked at MCI when WCOM bought them. I can still remember the day some months before when my husband (who also worked there) and I took a walk at lunch and discussed the fact that we now worked for a pyramid scheme.
We've had four mortgage walk-aways in my village of roughly 100 families near Las Vegas--all houses that had been bought by flippers near the top of the market as local families who had been here for decades cashed in.
The houses sold quickly after foreclosure (this is a great area), but at much lower prices than the flippers had paid for them.
1st?
Finally some good news.
Im going all in on home builder stocks;-)
Land banks getting a margin calls this year
Your graph kinda looks like an EKG, now flatlining.
"Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still valiantly holding on in his fight to remain dead."
Seventy-four percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey say the economy has entered a recession
Poll: Three-quarters think U.S. in recession - CNN.com
"Seventy-four percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey say the economy has entered a recession"
Sebastian must have cast 26% of the total votes. (Just having fun, Seb.)
CR,
Maybe roll into an update box somewhere the economic measures that have been lost in the background today:
Mar 17 8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Mar -22.2
Mar 17 9:15 AM Industrial Production Feb -0.5%
Mar 17 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Feb 80.9%
I still think that this:
http://img.skitch.com/20080317-bg6b9fjwphchb83e2xffn8ff65.jpg
is the scarier chart.
(ripped from Brad DeLong's blog)
Another chart that implies something not in evidence (i.e., "this indicator is at recession levels").
The Builder Confidence level is lower than it was at the end of the previous two recessions...yet we're not in recession.
In 1995, the confidence level was lower than in the 2001 recession...but there was no recession in 1995.
Sebastia
Winston:
I saw that chart too: a true WTF moment.
Elaine
What is great about Sebastian for bears is that he confirms here daily that the recession is still not priced in the market.
Re: Winston's Chart.
Can that be right? What does it mean? I have learned a ton on CR over the past year or so, but that chart seems more ominous than anything else I've seen. Perhaps someone with knowledge of the banking system can explain why a net negative reserve for the entire system is not alarming?
Pilgrim,
Check out
Through the Looking Glass Sends Us to the Non-Borrowed Reserves Graph - J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles
and
Through the Looking Glass
for context.
I wonder when this survey was completed...
Leh-43% down..Glad were not in a recessio
whoops 46%
Cd - "Soft Patch"
LEH is clearly on death watch. I'm sure all the employees are glued to their Bloomberg terminals.
Econ 102 question.
From the article in the below link is this quote: "In another report on Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department said net overall capital flows in the country fell to its lowest level in four months in January. The inflows were not sufficient to cover the month's U.S. trade deficit."
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
When there is insufficient inflow, how instantaneous is the counter balancing move? Is it on the order of 1 month as short term loans and CP cannot get funded? Or is there a longer lag?
Thanks,
LEH is clearly on death watch. I'm sure all the employees are glued to their Bloomberg terminals. - safe_as_apts
Yep, and working out how much their stock portfolio is worth with their Lehman shares priced at $2.
Anonymous said: "What is great about Sebastian for bears is that he confirms here daily that the recession is still not priced in the market."
Thank-you. See what I mean about how deceptive a chart can be based on its implication? There is an automatic assumption of recession, even in the absence of reliable confirming evidence.
Sebastian
safe_as_apartments:
LEH is clearly on death watch. I'm sure all the employees are glued to their Bloomberg terminals.
Been there, done the equivalent when Worldcom went down. I had worked at MCI when WCOM bought them. I can still remember the day some months before when my husband (who also worked there) and I took a walk at lunch and discussed the fact that we now worked for a pyramid scheme.
I feel for the employees: the execs, not so much.
This must be the bottom! Happy days are here again!
We've had four mortgage walk-aways in my village of roughly 100 families near Las Vegas--all houses that had been bought by flippers near the top of the market as local families who had been here for decades cashed in.
The houses sold quickly after foreclosure (this is a great area), but at much lower prices than the flippers had paid for them.