March 28 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc along with other U.S. banks are likely to announce dividend cuts in April, as banks' earnings will not support current dividend payouts in 2008, Oppenheimer & Co analyst Meredith Whitney said.
"We continue to believe the bad news is not priced into the bank stock prices, and that progressively throughout this year, all financials, but particularly banks, will trade ... at least 25 percent lower from current levels," Whitney said.
Management at banks are only now beginning to come to terms with the severity of both the liquidity environment as well as the credit environment, the analyst said
Using you suggestion (assuming I remembered it correctly), it looks from February data like real PCE rose at a 0.9% pace in Q1 (used the January/February average rise as an estimate for March). Not so good, and consistent with expectations of a contraction in Q1 GDP. Note also that the big rise in income (0.5%, biggest since last July) resulted from government checks, rather than private sector activity.
WSJ, 1 April 2008 - "4822, the Occasional Poster to Calculated Risk, may raise as much as $20 million in capital to purchase a ranch and a small astronomical observatory in New Zealand."
Have Fannie and Freddie figured out those pesky accounting and risk management thingies yet? Might be nice, since they're now the mortgage lender of first, last and every resort
Are severence packages included in Personal Income calculations?
Severance packages are ordinary income and, in fact, in most states you cannot even file for unemployment until the severance is bled off. They use your last income to calculate how long that is. So if you get six months severance, you are considered employed for that six months because, in effect you are. You just got paid to job search.
"The two enterprises have effectively become the mortgage market at this point,'' Lockhart said.Effectively they have become the lender of first, last and every resort.''"
I don't think this is accurate since many banks are still writing mortgages that they intend to hold on their own balance sheets.
These guys are doing everything they can to postpone the inevitable (I suspect we will have a huge and chaotic unwinding shortly after the next President is sworn in). The same philosophical mindset that drives the Iraq debacle is driving economic policy: Official denial of reality in order to continue the systemic looting of the Treasury.
A rational response by our government would be to stem the tide of loss to the taxpayer - not to ratchet it up higher at every opportunity.
FNM and FRE common shareholders will get wiped out (a la Thornburg Mortgage) as these guys desperately raise and re-raise capital... over and over again.
Marcus I would disagree with you on two points. The great unwinding is not going to wait for the next president. It is happening now, at first slowly, but it will pick up steam a bit.
And the second is that I don't see the scam at all. I'm the sebastian of Fed policy. I think they are actually doing a fantastic job of keeping order and assisting in the orderly unwind by whatever creative means they can. Whether the unwind cooperates with them, however, remeains to be seen. That is what I worry about.
Or for a good explanation of where we are, you can go back in time to Bush 1 days and listen to Megadeth's Countdown to Extinction CD. 16 years later and we've clearly learned nothing.
"Effectively they have become the lender of first, last and every resort."
I am truly sickened by this new development where Fannie and Freddie are making loans to resorts. They are supposed to make loans for housing, not Club Med or the Sandals resorts! This is getting out of control in a hurry!
Thanks. I am, however, only a ghost of my former self. ; )
Ipodius:
We'll see what happens between now and Jan., 2009. No matter what, I think we'll have a major "readjustment" (yikes!) then.
As for the Fed's (Shadow Government's) actions, I think that they could have done many things to battle the trends, but they chose to concentrate on the top-tier money losers. In doing so, they have played into the hands of the culpable.
These guys will not spend the money they are being given (forgiven?), they will hoard it. They will take it overseas. The taxpayer will bear the brunt of less money and horrendous debt, both personal and national.
Better to have actual helicopters drop real dollars to the populace than to precision bomb the same dollars directly into the pockets of the thieves.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S. government-chartered mortgage companies, may raise as much as $20 billion in capital
from . . . who, exactly?
Since it is now well-publicized that FNM and FRE are buying anything with the word "mortgage" stamped on top, who is going to risk giving them capital?
I realize the markets are celebrating the lifting of FNM's and FRE's capital restrictions, but just wait until they actually try and raise the capital in question. I have serious questions about where the estimated $2 T in additional money is going to come from.
I don't think this is accurate since many banks are still writing mortgages that they intend to hold on their own balance sheets.
Good observation, Staubster.
In 2008 YTD originations, I see 36% are bank portfolio, 30% are GSE, and 9% are private investors. the rest is still warehoused (plus a pinch of GNMA), but even if all the warehouse ends up with the GSEs, there is still a siginficant portion being done outside of the GSE realm.
I never thought Lockhardt was given to hyperbole. I'm a little surprised by that quote.
The Traditional way to restore confidence in America is with slogans.I'd like to kick it off with one for Publisher's Clearing House "America's Retirement Plan".
And the second is that I don't see the scam at all. I'm the sebastian of Fed policy. I think they are actually doing a fantastic job of keeping order and assisting in the orderly unwind by whatever creative means they can. Whether the unwind cooperates with them, however, remeains to be seen. That is what I worry about.
I'm with MA (a few posts above) - we'll see if the baby can wait until Jan 09 & whether the fed is a good midwife or not. Just hope they got gas...
At what price would a prudent buyer touch their paper? In my bubble area prices have dropped to 350x monthly rent from 500x monthly rent.Around here I would want 25% down and 14% for a 30 year fixed,and i'd still be nervous.
--
"Why aren't we waging war on Iraq or Iran using the same strategy we destroyed Iceland with?"
ac,
Because in Iran and Iraq we were dealing with heretics. In Iceland we had the believers. It is lot easier to con a believer. Case in point -- democratic dupes!
--
"Better to have actual helicopters drop real dollars to the populace than to precision bomb the same dollars directly into the pockets of the thieves."
MA,
Fed is doing its job -- "bomb the same dollars directly into the pockets of the thieves."
The USG does a bit for "the populace."
You don't need Mafia (actually, we needed to get rid of the Mafia because it was competing with the Fed and the USG!) when we have legalized financial criminal gangs.
US e-CON-omy -- a criminal enterprise at a gigantic scale supported by force.
People need to come to terms with the real nature of the American system. It puts all the criminal enterprises in history to shame.
"US e-CON-omy -- a criminal enterprise at a gigantic scale supported by force.
People need to come to terms with the real nature of the American system. It puts all the criminal enterprises in history to shame.
Jas"
Jas, seriously, it's great. We all got it. Now please go and spend your efforts posting this on any Fox News blog. I'm sure Hannity or O'Reilly have some blogs that you would be speaking to the needy. I'm sure their comments sections need someone just like you.
Go there, and give 'em hell. Don't reference us, please, but rest assured we're completely behind you in your pontificatory endeavors.
Maybe at this point we should question whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should even exist. Should the taxpayer, er I mean government be in this business?
Does it makes sense for the GSEs to take on loans that private enterprises won't even take?
But I guess Wall Street and the whole housing industry needs to be propped up and the taxpayer has to do it. No wonder Republicans hate taxes so much when activities like these make them look like vehicles for special interests to rape the public.
You are given the right to spread my words wherever you see fit. Hannity is a rogue broadcaster. Actually, Faux Propaganda Machine recruits propagandists with great care.
FNM and FRE need to raise capital just to put some non-fictional accounting assets back on their balance sheets, and would have a hard time just doing that. But to fix the mortgage crisis? Not without being nationalized.
At what price would a prudent buyer touch their paper? In my bubble area prices have dropped to 350x monthly rent from 500x monthly rent.Around here I would want 25% down and 14% for a 30 year fixed,and i'd still be nervous.
Tom Stone | 03.28.08 - 11:14 am | #
Damn... 350x rent would take 29 years to the Breakeven - that's not even accounting for taxes, maintenance, interest... wow.
Awesome! The Housing Bubble is solved! Yeah - now get back to buying houses at 5x, 7x, and 10+x your income!
Oh, wait... so, what happens when: 1) nobody can qualify for a GSE loan, and/or 2) anyone qualify, we reinflate the Bubble, and then the GSE's roll over and die and we're left with nothing but hyperinflation?
First? All your house belong to US.
March 28 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc along with other U.S. banks are likely to announce dividend cuts in April, as banks' earnings will not support current dividend payouts in 2008, Oppenheimer & Co analyst Meredith Whitney said.
"We continue to believe the bad news is not priced into the bank stock prices, and that progressively throughout this year, all financials, but particularly banks, will trade ... at least 25 percent lower from current levels," Whitney said.
Management at banks are only now beginning to come to terms with the severity of both the liquidity environment as well as the credit environment, the analyst said
Oppenheimer sees dividend cuts at Citi, Wachovia
| Reuters
I love you Meredith. APOL getting crushed.
Looks increasingly like the US govt may be following the consumer into bankruptcy.
United Banana Republics of America?
CR,
Using you suggestion (assuming I remembered it correctly), it looks from February data like real PCE rose at a 0.9% pace in Q1 (used the January/February average rise as an estimate for March). Not so good, and consistent with expectations of a contraction in Q1 GDP. Note also that the big rise in income (0.5%, biggest since last July) resulted from government checks, rather than private sector activity.
That was off topic, I know, but I figured you'd get around to it at some point.
Note also that the big rise in income (0.5%, biggest since last July) resulted from government checks
What government checks and where can I get some?
In order to raise capital, do Fannie and Freddie borrow or do they sell MBS? Or some combination? Or some other way?
WSJ, 1 April 2008 - "4822, the Occasional Poster to Calculated Risk, may raise as much as $20 million in capital to purchase a ranch and a small astronomical observatory in New Zealand."
``Effectively they have become the lender of first, last and every resort.''
Hail to the free market and competition. Have we finally arrived at our desti-nation or what.
Let us export our ideas to the rest of the world by peaceful means or war, but we must.
Jas
Oh glod, not again.
Have Fannie and Freddie figured out those pesky accounting and risk management thingies yet? Might be nice, since they're now the mortgage lender of first, last and every resort
Are severence packages included in Personal Income calculations?
Sorry if you already read my question in the previous thread.
k harris, yeah, I'm looking at the numbers now.
Best Wishes.
Let us export our ideas to the rest of the world by peaceful means or war, but we must.
Why aren't we waging war on Iraq or Iran using the same strategy we destroyed Iceland with?
Are severence packages included in Personal Income calculations?
Severance packages are ordinary income and, in fact, in most states you cannot even file for unemployment until the severance is bled off. They use your last income to calculate how long that is. So if you get six months severance, you are considered employed for that six months because, in effect you are. You just got paid to job search.
"The two enterprises have effectively become the mortgage market at this point,'' Lockhart said.Effectively they have become the lender of first, last and every resort.''"
I don't think this is accurate since many banks are still writing mortgages that they intend to hold on their own balance sheets.
These guys are doing everything they can to postpone the inevitable (I suspect we will have a huge and chaotic unwinding shortly after the next President is sworn in). The same philosophical mindset that drives the Iraq debacle is driving economic policy: Official denial of reality in order to continue the systemic looting of the Treasury.
A rational response by our government would be to stem the tide of loss to the taxpayer - not to ratchet it up higher at every opportunity.
We are being scammed.
FNM and FRE common shareholders will get wiped out (a la Thornburg Mortgage) as these guys desperately raise and re-raise capital... over and over again.
Short Entry Zones Were Damn Near Perfect
When will someone at the Lockhart home hide his car keys so he can't go to work and screw things up even further?
No wonder they call you the last of the five good emperors, Marcus.
Marcus I would disagree with you on two points. The great unwinding is not going to wait for the next president. It is happening now, at first slowly, but it will pick up steam a bit.
And the second is that I don't see the scam at all. I'm the sebastian of Fed policy. I think they are actually doing a fantastic job of keeping order and assisting in the orderly unwind by whatever creative means they can. Whether the unwind cooperates with them, however, remeains to be seen. That is what I worry about.
Time to revive yet another hollow political catchphrase; "Just say no."
Read my lips - just say no.
Or for a good explanation of where we are, you can go back in time to Bush 1 days and listen to Megadeth's Countdown to Extinction CD. 16 years later and we've clearly learned nothing.
--
"I love you Meredith."
Watch out, Anon. Her hubby is a wrestler.
Jas
were either all subprime or all prime
everyone should get the same rate if the govvie is "the" market
Anyone else see the google ad on here for a class action lawsuit against Bear Stearns?
--
"We are being scammed."
MA,
Normal outcome in a criminalized economy (mostly the financial system) aided and abetted by the Fed and the USG.
We can't leave something as important as the American nightmare to the free market.
Jas
--
"or all prime"
Targets!
Jas
"Effectively they have become the lender of first, last and every resort."
I am truly sickened by this new development where Fannie and Freddie are making loans to resorts. They are supposed to make loans for housing, not Club Med or the Sandals resorts! This is getting out of control in a hurry!
-kidding-
--
OT... my apologies to Seb. I honestly like the guy.
Jas
Bill M:
Thanks. I am, however, only a ghost of my former self. ; )
Ipodius:
We'll see what happens between now and Jan., 2009. No matter what, I think we'll have a major "readjustment" (yikes!) then.
As for the Fed's (Shadow Government's) actions, I think that they could have done many things to battle the trends, but they chose to concentrate on the top-tier money losers. In doing so, they have played into the hands of the culpable.
These guys will not spend the money they are being given (forgiven?), they will hoard it. They will take it overseas. The taxpayer will bear the brunt of less money and horrendous debt, both personal and national.
Better to have actual helicopters drop real dollars to the populace than to precision bomb the same dollars directly into the pockets of the thieves.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S. government-chartered mortgage companies, may raise as much as $20 billion in capital
from . . . who, exactly?
Since it is now well-publicized that FNM and FRE are buying anything with the word "mortgage" stamped on top, who is going to risk giving them capital?
I realize the markets are celebrating the lifting of FNM's and FRE's capital restrictions, but just wait until they actually try and raise the capital in question. I have serious questions about where the estimated $2 T in additional money is going to come from.
Amen, Marcus
I don't think this is accurate since many banks are still writing mortgages that they intend to hold on their own balance sheets.
Good observation, Staubster.
In 2008 YTD originations, I see 36% are bank portfolio, 30% are GSE, and 9% are private investors. the rest is still warehoused (plus a pinch of GNMA), but even if all the warehouse ends up with the GSEs, there is still a siginficant portion being done outside of the GSE realm.
I never thought Lockhardt was given to hyperbole. I'm a little surprised by that quote.
The Traditional way to restore confidence in America is with slogans.I'd like to kick it off with one for Publisher's Clearing House "America's Retirement Plan".
And the second is that I don't see the scam at all. I'm the sebastian of Fed policy. I think they are actually doing a fantastic job of keeping order and assisting in the orderly unwind by whatever creative means they can. Whether the unwind cooperates with them, however, remeains to be seen. That is what I worry about.
I'm with MA (a few posts above) - we'll see if the baby can wait until Jan 09 & whether the fed is a good midwife or not. Just hope they got gas...
As in the same vein when Citigroup said it was going to "lighten" it's exposure by selling $45b in mortgages securities...
I asked the same question:
To whom are they going to sell to??
Just like all the homeowners who want to sell at a still inflated price....denial goes all the way to the top floor at C too.
Marcus-
could not agree more......
Ciao
MS
PV,
It isn't $2T. The GSEs lever their capital. They'll loan out the same $20b 100x if necessary.
I have serious questions about where the estimated $2T in additional money is going to come from.
Peripheral Visionary | 03.28.08 - 10:32 am | #
I wouldn't be surprised to find that if you let a bloodhound loose a lot of that $2T could be tracked back to a fed window somewhere.
But that's not a problem, right, 'cause money is 'fungible'.
At what price would a prudent buyer touch their paper? In my bubble area prices have dropped to 350x monthly rent from 500x monthly rent.Around here I would want 25% down and 14% for a 30 year fixed,and i'd still be nervous.
--
"Why aren't we waging war on Iraq or Iran using the same strategy we destroyed Iceland with?"
ac,
Because in Iran and Iraq we were dealing with heretics. In Iceland we had the believers. It is lot easier to con a believer. Case in point -- democratic dupes!
Jas
--
"Better to have actual helicopters drop real dollars to the populace than to precision bomb the same dollars directly into the pockets of the thieves."
MA,
Fed is doing its job -- "bomb the same dollars directly into the pockets of the thieves."
The USG does a bit for "the populace."
You don't need Mafia (actually, we needed to get rid of the Mafia because it was competing with the Fed and the USG!) when we have legalized financial criminal gangs.
US e-CON-omy -- a criminal enterprise at a gigantic scale supported by force.
People need to come to terms with the real nature of the American system. It puts all the criminal enterprises in history to shame.
Jas
"US e-CON-omy -- a criminal enterprise at a gigantic scale supported by force.
People need to come to terms with the real nature of the American system. It puts all the criminal enterprises in history to shame.
Jas"
Jas, seriously, it's great. We all got it. Now please go and spend your efforts posting this on any Fox News blog. I'm sure Hannity or O'Reilly have some blogs that you would be speaking to the needy. I'm sure their comments sections need someone just like you.
Go there, and give 'em hell. Don't reference us, please, but rest assured we're completely behind you in your pontificatory endeavors.
Go, Jas, Go beyond and spread the word!!
[Key word here is beyond.]
Maybe at this point we should question whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should even exist. Should the taxpayer, er I mean government be in this business?
Does it makes sense for the GSEs to take on loans that private enterprises won't even take?
But I guess Wall Street and the whole housing industry needs to be propped up and the taxpayer has to do it. No wonder Republicans hate taxes so much when activities like these make them look like vehicles for special interests to rape the public.
--
Anonymous,
You are given the right to spread my words wherever you see fit. Hannity is a rogue broadcaster. Actually, Faux Propaganda Machine recruits propagandists with great care.
Jas
--
OT...
Bush: "In order for democracy to survive the Iraqi People must have confidence in their govt."
Does the same apply to America?
Jas
PS: According to one author only 1% of Iraqis have confidence in their govt!! I wonder what the % is for Americans.
Hey,
I need help on another CR thread!! An invasion of clowns is distorting reality.
Help!
Re: Federal Reserve Governor Frederic S. Mishkin spoke tonight
FNM and FRE need to raise capital just to put some non-fictional accounting assets back on their balance sheets, and would have a hard time just doing that. But to fix the mortgage crisis? Not without being nationalized.
At what price would a prudent buyer touch their paper? In my bubble area prices have dropped to 350x monthly rent from 500x monthly rent.Around here I would want 25% down and 14% for a 30 year fixed,and i'd still be nervous.
Tom Stone | 03.28.08 - 11:14 am | #
Damn... 350x rent would take 29 years to the Breakeven - that's not even accounting for taxes, maintenance, interest... wow.
I have to laugh at the people who think allowing a Californian to buy a 715k house is going to fix this whole mess.
Not to mention, 715K in San Fran will get you a nice 1500 sqf box.
Uh...its the overpricing Stupid!
Just another way to prop up this mess a bit more
I have to laugh at the people who think allowing a Californian to buy a 715k house is going to fix this whole mess.
It will. We just need to find the right guy!
Awesome! The Housing Bubble is solved! Yeah - now get back to buying houses at 5x, 7x, and 10+x your income!
Oh, wait... so, what happens when: 1) nobody can qualify for a GSE loan, and/or 2) anyone qualify, we reinflate the Bubble, and then the GSE's roll over and die and we're left with nothing but hyperinflation?
Hmmm... maybe this doesn't fix everything!
I heard a rumor Fannie and Freddie will be nationalized - anybody here this? what are your thoughts of the effect this will have!?
gracias,