(OT) Apologies for this being off-topic, but I thought this was too cool to miss. Econobrowser has a graphic showing the state-by-state development of the last recession.
Seb (OT Thanks!) that looks to be an interesting paper although they're handling of geography so far is slightly above the throwing a regression line through an alphabetical listing of states level. There are ways to attempt to handle the spillover effects and Econometricians tackling regional variation should have run across Luc Anselin http://sal.uiuc.edu/users/anselin/ who's a Spatial Econometrician. Still, fun maps and an effort to keep track of.
Seb,
Saw that yesterday. Kinda cute to see the contagion move around. Iteresting to see some states immune to the infection. Not that I would like to live in those states.
--
One-by-one ALL Bankrupters and Fraudsters will fall and all the debt market will get nationalized.
That is the beauty of the American Free market system -- Free gains for the capitalistic Crooks who are bred in the art of deception and manipulation. And the people are bred to be total dopes so that can't figure out an obvious Scam of Pushing Debt with the help of the Fed and the USG.
--
Thanks, Seb. 42% of America was in recession in 2007Q3 (according to the most honest economist on Wall Street David Rosenberg), CA very much included. In 2007Q4 it was more like 70% and in 2008Q1 we probably surpassed 85% level. By 2008Q3 we should hit the 98% mark.
You have been right all along, Seb; we would not hit 100% mark until 2009.
Oh mercy heavens what's all that commotion in the chicken coop? Lordy lordy! Elmer... git yer shotgun and get out to the chicken coop quick like. There's gonna be a wedding.
scav said: "that looks to be an interesting paper although they're handling of geography so far is slightly above the throwing a regression line through an alphabetical listing of states level."
Unfortunately (for me), I feel a research-project coming on. As bad luck would have it, there's data available going back to 1990 for the individual states.
Check the metro area definitions and have at it. From 1990 to 2003 you've got the old MSAs and from 2003 to now you've got the CBSAs and there are changes in individual MSA definitions each year (usually counties added) but the basic signal may still be there.
The real thing to look out for is that the old MSA definitions in New England are Township-based while the rest of the US had County-based MSAs (that's why New England states also had NECMAs which are County-based). Now the entire US has County based CBSAs and for those that want Township-based ones in NE they have to use NECTAs. I'm not sure if that info is in the cheat sheet everybody knows or in the 2000 page documentation that nobody reads, so forgive me rattling on.
"A central bank acting as a lender needs to be able to evaluate the solvency and liquidity of a borrowing institution," Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, ... "Knowing how likely it is that an institution's sources of funds will evaporate during times of financial stress requires a significant understanding of the institution's liabilities and its counterparty relationships."
What's up with these pushy Federal agencies today? First this, and then the Fed wants the IBs to open their books if they want to use the Fed's windows? Why, what good is it being an IB if you can't stuff all your bad investments into some dark hole named Level III and let them out a little at a time as profits allow?
scav said: "The real thing to look out for is that the old MSA definitions in New England are Township-based while the rest of the US had County-based MSAs (that's why New England states also had NECMAs which are County-based)."
Well, this is going to be easier than I thought. In true "New Paradigm" fashion, the difficulty in getting the right data makes New England "not important", LOL! Cross that one off the list, ROTLMAO!
FDIC does not have trained staff (or trained contractors) to handle a proper payout for this size bank and will have to find a buyer or, in the alternative, provide an assistance transaction or other relief. Any bank over $3 billion in assets would be very difficult if not impossible for the current trained FDIC staff to handle in a payout situation. If it had to close & payout two large banks at once or back to back it could not.
Ah yes, the 70+ C&D order.... memories...!! I remember that night like yesterday, can't believe it took over a year for FMT to actually fully collapse.
Here is the CNNMoney link:
Fremont General says FDIC orders recap of bank and credit units...
"The FDIC has directed the company to sell enough voting shares or obligations of the bank so that it will be 'adequately capitalized,' or to accept any acquisition offers for the bank from a depository institution holding company or combine with another insured depository institution." CNNMoney.com: 404 Page Not Found
Just wondering; how much in bonds does Fremont have outstanding and how much in credit default swaps is written with those bonds as the underlying asset?
6!
Lending changes are being driven by price reductions (even if the horse has already left the barn).
Silicon Valley price reductions are definitely coming. Just look at the price vs. rents in,
"Ah...the joys of owning"
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id402.html
Thanks!
(OT) Apologies for this being off-topic, but I thought this was too cool to miss. Econobrowser has a graphic showing the state-by-state development of the last recession.
Econbrowser: Recessions at the state level
S.
I think Wells Fargo is looking to buy on the lowside!
OT Black Swan reunited with plastic boat after being dumped by courted white swan.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Error Page - Yahoo! News
I am just sure there is some symbolism I'm supposed to take away from this.
Seb (OT Thanks!) that looks to be an interesting paper although they're handling of geography so far is slightly above the throwing a regression line through an alphabetical listing of states level. There are ways to attempt to handle the spillover effects and Econometricians tackling regional variation should have run across Luc Anselin http://sal.uiuc.edu/users/anselin/ who's a Spatial Econometrician. Still, fun maps and an effort to keep track of.
Seb,
Saw that yesterday. Kinda cute to see the contagion move around. Iteresting to see some states immune to the infection. Not that I would like to live in those states.
Loved Tanta's first comment on your year-old posting.
--
One-by-one ALL Bankrupters and Fraudsters will fall and all the debt market will get nationalized.
That is the beauty of the American Free market system -- Free gains for the capitalistic Crooks who are bred in the art of deception and manipulation. And the people are bred to be total dopes so that can't figure out an obvious Scam of Pushing Debt with the help of the Fed and the USG.
Jas
Good link sebastian,
Is this your subtle way to say we are in a recession now?
--
Thanks, Seb. 42% of America was in recession in 2007Q3 (according to the most honest economist on Wall Street David Rosenberg), CA very much included. In 2007Q4 it was more like 70% and in 2008Q1 we probably surpassed 85% level. By 2008Q3 we should hit the 98% mark.
You have been right all along, Seb; we would not hit 100% mark until 2009.
Jas
Oh mercy heavens what's all that commotion in the chicken coop? Lordy lordy! Elmer... git yer shotgun and get out to the chicken coop quick like. There's gonna be a wedding.
scav said: "that looks to be an interesting paper although they're handling of geography so far is slightly above the throwing a regression line through an alphabetical listing of states level."
Unfortunately (for me), I feel a research-project coming on. As bad luck would have it, there's data available going back to 1990 for the individual states.
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Maybe I could cut it down and just do the "important" ones.
Sebastia
Seb - worse, there's a research paper looming first in order to identify the "important" states if you choose to go that route!
scav said: "Seb - worse, there's a research paper looming first in order to identify the "important" states if you choose to go that route!"
Yeah, but something else occurred to me, though: In looking over the state data it looks like it's available by metro area, too.
So maybe employment data for the Case-Shiller MSA's would be a good place to start.
S.
Sebastian writes:
"So maybe employment data for the Case-Shiller MSA's would be a good place to start."
That would be interesting. Too bad it only goes back to 1990.
Check the metro area definitions and have at it. From 1990 to 2003 you've got the old MSAs and from 2003 to now you've got the CBSAs and there are changes in individual MSA definitions each year (usually counties added) but the basic signal may still be there.
The real thing to look out for is that the old MSA definitions in New England are Township-based while the rest of the US had County-based MSAs (that's why New England states also had NECMAs which are County-based). Now the entire US has County based CBSAs and for those that want Township-based ones in NE they have to use NECTAs. I'm not sure if that info is in the cheat sheet everybody knows or in the 2000 page documentation that nobody reads, so forgive me rattling on.
"A central bank acting as a lender needs to be able to evaluate the solvency and liquidity of a borrowing institution," Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, ... "Knowing how likely it is that an institution's sources of funds will evaporate during times of financial stress requires a significant understanding of the institution's liabilities and its counterparty relationships."
What's up with these pushy Federal agencies today? First this, and then the Fed wants the IBs to open their books if they want to use the Fed's windows? Why, what good is it being an IB if you can't stuff all your bad investments into some dark hole named Level III and let them out a little at a time as profits allow?
God I hate it when I forget to close a tag!
scav said: "The real thing to look out for is that the old MSA definitions in New England are Township-based while the rest of the US had County-based MSAs (that's why New England states also had NECMAs which are County-based)."
Well, this is going to be easier than I thought. In true "New Paradigm" fashion, the difficulty in getting the right data makes New England "not important", LOL! Cross that one off the list, ROTLMAO!
S.
Seb,
Thanks for posting the Econobrowser link - I am now looking forward to his next post on the inter-state effects...cool!
(I mean the analysis and graphics not the economic pain)
FDIC does not have trained staff (or trained contractors) to handle a proper payout for this size bank and will have to find a buyer or, in the alternative, provide an assistance transaction or other relief. Any bank over $3 billion in assets would be very difficult if not impossible for the current trained FDIC staff to handle in a payout situation. If it had to close & payout two large banks at once or back to back it could not.
I'm on Meredith Whitney's Side:
I'm on Meredith Whitney's Side -- Seeking Alpha
Ah yes, the 70+ C&D order.... memories...!! I remember that night like yesterday, can't believe it took over a year for FMT to actually fully collapse.
FFDIC writes:
I'm on Meredith Whitney's Side:
she looks like a worn out pole dancer.
Here is the CNNMoney link:
Fremont General says FDIC orders recap of bank and credit units...
"The FDIC has directed the company to sell enough voting shares or obligations of the bank so that it will be 'adequately capitalized,' or to accept any acquisition offers for the bank from a depository institution holding company or combine with another insured depository institution."
CNNMoney.com: 404 Page Not Found
Just wondering; how much in bonds does Fremont have outstanding and how much in credit default swaps is written with those bonds as the underlying asset?