We're All Subprime Now

in

If you buy stocks in risky companies using margin, that's scary and dangerous. But if you buy stock in risky companies using mortgage equity, that shouldn't be a problem. After all, mortgages are safe.

buffet saves the monolines!!! wait, what's this, they have to pay 1.5x of the remaining premiums to reinsure? doesn't it mean? oh no, he doesn't save them!!!!

However, lenders like Countrywide will not allow borrowers to freeze the rates on their loans until they are 90 days past due.
This could cause a liquidity problem for the lenders in two ways. One, they'll certainly have more walk-aways. Two, people will deliberately stop paying in order to qualify. My sister in law tried to speak to Countrywide about fixing the rate on a HELOC. They had a very arrogant attitude and told her she'd have to pay a much higher rate than the current 8.9%.
I can't see how their business practices help even themselves.

What does this heretofore under-recognized not-just-subprime group have to say about the pickle it's in?

"let me out of this pickle. it smells like vinegar in here."

Reposting from end of previous thread...

Heh, heh, heh...too funny. Toll Bros vice chairman's daughter is "walking away" from her Toll Bros Florida condo.

Florida Taking Its Toll (Brothers) On Daughter's Condo - CNBC

So I guess she is subprime too.

"Labels: WASN."

A very nice touch on the end, there.

My secy knows a couple of friends who are in foreclosure on their Countrywide loans because they can't afford the loans anymore, not because they are ruthless.

They called Countrywide. There is no help to be had.

Also, kids with parent with less money manage to go to college. Sometimes they go to state schools, sometimes they take a few years off to work, sometimes they join the military for the freebies (not advised now!). It gets done. Most state schools are excellent. From the article, they've been pulling money out for enough years for the kid to get her PhD.

Also, Tanta, IHB-ers say there is a particularly worthless article in the Times with no fact checking. In a mood to rant?

Hello ,I liked your blog.Besides,the arrangement of contents are easy to look up and good information.Nice to meet you.

We have a friend who lost her husband a few years back and has 2 kids. She basically got screwed out of most of his life insurance policy on technicals as usual.

She ended up going upide down on her home last year by several refinances done by her "friend" the wife of a chiropractor where she worked. We looked and the wife took $4500 each refinance for all her "help". She chose short sale over bankruptcy last year as she could not make the payments.

Long story short, ...The IRS sent her a bill for 10,000 for their part of the short sale plus interest. She's devestated but remarkably,..blames nobody but herself for taking the money.

"They invested much of the money in shares of companies that subsequently went bankrupt."

Wow. Dumb in housing and dumb in equities, too. Real geniuses!

-- Judge Smales
"You'll get nothing and like it"

I don't want to beat yesterday's dead horse, but just let me say this. I don't discount anyone's experiences or the data, but I think I am in the same boat as many millions who don't read or post on this board. Call us the "Silent Majority" if you want. I own a house that I bought many years ago to live in, not as an investment. My mortgage payment is a very modest % of my income. I intend to live here another 15 years and will be perfectly happy to sell it for 2x what I paid for it, a 5-6% annual appreciation over 25 years. Other than that, I haven't paid much attention to home prices. I do my investing in the market and have done pretty well over quite a few years.

I do resent the fact that one way or another I and those like me will end up paying for all the foolishness, through higher taxes, a weakened economy or lower investment profits, or, most likely, a combination of all of the above. But I am resigned to the fact that I will be paying. Anyway, I do have some thoughts as to how the economy will get through this and begin growing again, but I will save those for later.

Best wishes to all. By the way, seems like the market may be up today thanks to Buffett, who lives in a middle-market city and bought his home as a place to live in.

Still, Mr. Doyle does not regret refinancing in 2004. “My goal was clear: I wanted to help my daughter go through college,” he said. “It wasn’t like it was for us.”

Yes, this has the same result as someone who took a spin on the sub-prime roulette wheel, but as someone who is also struggling to pay for my children's college I can empathize with his situation.

Last week I wrote a check for my son's spring tuition and fees. And while he is on 50% scholarship, I still sent more money in that one payment than it cost me for my entire education at a small liberal arts college in MN back in the early 80's.

The "middle class" can no longer afford college for their children without taking on enormous financial risks.

But borrowers like Mr. Doyle, the engineer in Northern California, say they are victims of their circumstances — housing prices collapsed and lending standards tightened just as they needed to sell or refinance.

But they chose to get a mortgage that they knew would require that they refinance in the future. If you get a 30yr fixed, you can be sure that barring any unforseen circumstances in your own circumstances (job loss, divorce, illness etc.) you can pay the mortgage. By getting an OA that they could not afford to make ammortizing payments on, they made a high stakes gamble that housing market would still be bubbling up when they reached their limit.

"she would have to pay a prepayment penalty of about $40,000 if she chose to refinance or sell her home before May 2009."

The loan amount is $740K and the prepay amount is 40K? The math says this is a 5.4% prepayment penalty. The highest prepay I have ever seen is 3pts and it's for a 3yr prepay and declines over the 3yrs from 3 to 2 to 1%.

Doesn't sound right.

For these stories it often seems they seek out the least sympathetic borrowers. Or maybe there is no other kind.

You really have to look at the cost/benefit ratio of college anymore. It's getting more difficult to argue you will be better off with just any college degree.

We welcome Vikas Bajaj and Louise Story of the New York Times to the clubhouse. Budge over, everyone.

dammit, i forgot the secret password again. will one of you guys throw down the rope, please? it's me, bacon dreamz! come on! look, i brought cupcakes!

By the way, seems like the market may be up today thanks to Buffett, who lives in a middle-market city and bought his home as a place to live in.

Yes, Mr Buffett will gladly take money for insuring bonds that do not need insurance, but won't touch any of the paper that is causing talk of monoline downgrades and eventual insolvency ('runoff'). And the market will rise on this news. No doubt.

Buffett to monolines
I may lose a fortune but I am willing to back your munis to. Just pay me a premium and I will take all that safe stuff off your hands and you keep the crap and go bankrupt. Great news for Wall Street cheerleaders.

Aheadofthecurve -

You are not alone. I live in a relatively underheated market, and bought my house in 2000 just to have a roof over my head for the next 10-15 years, not as an investment. At the time, I knew people who were really stretching to build their dream home at 30, or moving to much hotter housing markets nearby, and wondered if I was an idiot. Now, my earlier caution is making me feel like a freakin' genius (an unjustified conclusion, I can assure you, which soon passes when I realize how lucky I was to have the opportunity to buy a house the old-fashioned way in this loony market).

Yes, Mr Buffett will gladly take money for insuring bonds that do not need insurance, but won't touch any of the paper that is causing talk of monoline downgrades and eventual insolvency ('runoff'). And the market will rise on this news. No doubt.

Yes, it's hard to see why the market's getting so euphoric about Buffet's offer. And it's hard to imagine any of the monolines would accept his offer.

Yes, this has the same result as someone who took a spin on the sub-prime roulette wheel, but as someone who is also struggling to pay for my children's college I can empathize with his situation.

Of course I empathize as well. Tuition inflation is crippling the middle class and simply devastating the working class's aspirations.

I just want us to confront the reality that a lot of kids can't go to college unless their parents are homeowners with a HELOC without a toss-off insult to anyone who is in trouble right now for "selfish" reasons. I've met more than a few parents for whom it is, exactly, "for them" and not really for the kid: the kid would probably thrive at the local state U, but the parents' egos demands that they go to a prestige school they can't afford.

I am, btw, the proud graduate of the local state U.

...but as someone who is also struggling to pay for my children's college I can empathize with his situation.

I can only assume that you missed this part:

They invested much of the money in shares of companies that subsequently went bankrupt.

Yes, my empathy cup runneth over.

One thing I have noticed is that the general consensus reached on this site for any given post seems to be the opposite conclusion of "the market".

Provided you live in a state that has a university system worth a damn, they are easily the best bargain left and probably one of the few places you can get back what you've paid in tax. Considering that this family was in California, I'd say their state qualifies as having a university system worth several damns and maybe a hot damn thrown in for good measure.

Also the whole Buffett thing is a hoot. Read the early react quotes from Reuters and tell me it's just the credit markets that are in trouble!

Instant View: Warren Buffett offers to help bond insurers
| Reuters

They invested much of the money in shares of companies that subsequently went bankrupt.

This is kind of odd considering that over the past 5-6 years corporate defaults and bankruptcies have been historically low. I mean either he wasn't diversified, or managed to put all his eggs in a basket with a hole in the bottom.

Good grief, anyone with the desire and aptitude can go to college. Amazingly, they don't need their parent's help either. But, they may have to grow up and make some sacrifices.

If you want your kid to work on Wall St. and trade CMO's, you have to send him/her to a prestige school. Come to think of it, you might have to send them to a prestige pre-school as well.

lama, that's not a very nice thing to do to your children.

A good reason not to go to a prestige school.

No worries. Countrywide and WM and four other lenders are going to work things out with there distressed borrowers and stop all the foreclosures.

Rowdy-I'd say that the flagship campus of almost any state U is a place where you can get an excellent education. Buffett didn't seem to be hampered by going to U Of Nebraska.

They call, and get no help. That is, to me, a very, very important key to all of this.

There is no back-end to the front-end promises. There will not be anytime soon.

My guess of what is needed:

A mortgage holder calls XYZ. Someone has to be sitting in an actual room with access to their history.

This would require that XYZ have the staff, the network infrastructure, and support resources.

The phone people weed them out based on a script and direct them to the appropriate department.

XYZ needs the departments up and running. Guidelines.

You would need:

Workout Dept.
Your Toast Dept.
OK, we will take over the property and manage it Dept.

All of these, especially workout, would need smart people with all the infrastructure again. Forms, rules, guidelines, software.

I don't know for sure but we are going to toss you a "lifeline" but once you grab hold we don't have anyone to pull you in, room on the boat, warm clothes, etc. is doomed?

Mr Greyshades: No, I don't feel like a genius. But my wife and I did chose to establish ourselves in a mid-size area so that we could afford to buy a very nice house without stretching.

Some thoughts on the latest mortgage triage proposal here:

Homeowners who are over three month late in payments are not likely to be able to make the note even if there is a freeze and restructuring of payments.

You have to wonder: Could the people behind these ideas possibly be ignorant of the basic facts about delinquencies, foreclosures, etc?

What is wrong with junior college?

"What is wrong with junior college?"

In California, not a thing. Takes care of all your general ed courses while you're living (cheaply) with the parents, and only pay maybe $20 a unit. Maybe HoityToity Private University wouldn't understand, but your local public university would. In fact, they'd rather not see you for at least the first year.

I am, btw, the proud graduate of the local state U.

You're quite right, Tanta. But never in recent history has money become such a barrier to higher education.

Even the Cali U's are priced out of reach of many now, and the next alternative, the state college system, is so overcrowded now due to lack of funding that my daughter could not get classes in her major.

I've taught in the state system here since I was in grad school (adjunct now). Actually money shouldn't be an issue at all. If you go to one of the community colleges (which is basically free) for two year, and you are in a degree program, all the courses have COMPLETE reciprocity. In other words you get two years practically free, and then you can transfer to a flagship as a Junior.

What a deal! And having been in academia for a long time, I can tell you that the undergrad courses at these fancy private institutions around here are the SAME classes. What you get is the networking so that you can...er...go work for an IB and lose other people's money. Or get a leg in at the executive level when you don't deserve it and lose shareholder money.

But, you know, this isn't quite so true anymore either. I know that my impression of MBAs from H is that they were told they were smarter than the rest. Not that they actually are. Every one I've ever worked with was amazingly inept.

A couple of years ago the State of Minnesota was in the process passing legislation/approving to provide free education for a few degrees/programs that were identified as needed to make the state more competitive. I think these degrees were for Educators, Engineers, Mathematicians and Nurses as long as they maintain a 2.85(C+) Point Average. Not bad for your tax money.

Want to be a doctor get your nursing degree first for free or want to be a Lawyer go to enginnering first for free.

But never in recent history has money become such a barrier to higher education.

I absolutely agree. My niece is now attending the same state U. I did a generation ago. Tuition has increased by many hundreds of percents (and textbook prices! Christ!), but the local part-time jobs she could get to help pay for it still pay nearly the same minimum wage they did then.

What is wrong with junior college?

For education? What, a place where you or your parents can afford to pay, the professors actually focus on teaching instead of research and you don't have 500 people in one lecture? Prove yourself there even after a mediocre high school career, and you can probably waltz into a nice scholarship to State U or even somewhere more fancy. What's not to like?

I do not get Mr. Doyle's intention. Did he intend to sell his house, and buy a cheaper one at some point of time? If not, refinancing is just taking on a bigger loan then before, which one cannot afford.

There Mr. Doyle's are just trying to live beyond their means. No symphaty at all from me, or anyone from Finland, I assume.

Well, back t the idea of workouts, some are just not going to be able to refinance or continue with payments.

Question is, why try to work it out when the IRS is going to come after your for the difference of the short sale? Just walk away and be done with it.

benny, that was waived, so the IRS will not come after you now.

although I don't at all take pleasure in other's housing misfortune, it does make me feel like a rather smart cookie that I bought into a nice neighborhood in 1995 with a low fixed 30yr, refi'd 7 years ago to an even lower fixed rate, and never participated in that 'cash out your equity' insanity.

Nice to know that I've got a higher financial IQ than those six-figure folks. Even Elton John and Michael Jackson have managed to live beyond their substantial incomes.

DJ M-Trip: Unfortunately, all of us who did like you are going to pay for the idiots.

Still, Mr. Doyle does not regret refinancing in 2004. “My goal was clear: I wanted to help my daughter go through college,” he said. “It wasn’t like it was for us.”

Every-time I drive into the the "big city" that has a large impressive well-known 4-year school of higher education (UF if anyone cares), I notice that prices of various items climb steadily the closer I get to the campus. I've always wondered why. Now I think I know.

Why does a college education have to include a BMW, Armani clothing and Rolex watches?

Look at the college parking lots. They are whining because they may have to drive a Chevy.

@Dissident:

why do you need to have a car while in colloge? Live on campus and concentrate in your studies?

Aheadofthecurve
I can sympathize with your patience and satisfaction with moderate returns. Unfortunately, however, your math doesn't quite work out. If, after 25 years, you have doubled your nominal return, your annual real return won't be "5 to 6%." If you bought your house for 100,000 and assuming very low inflation (not something I would do) of 2.5% after 25 years you will have to NET 185,000 to BREAK EVEN. That's a 0% return over 25 years. And this does not include any carrying costs like interest and taxes, which would devastate your return. On the other hand, you have the pleasure of your home.

To double your real net return over 25 years you will have to get a return of inflation plus 3.5% - whatever that ends up being (4.1% last year). The odds of that are not especially good on average over the last 100 years according Shiller's studies.

Maybe HoityToity Private University wouldn't understand, but your local public university would.

Nah. My sister went to Harvard and all her JC credits transferred without a problem. She had one semester at a prestigious nursing school and those credits DIDN'T transfer to Harvard. She has a Harvard degreee and no one even cares if not ALL the credits were taken at Harvard. I went to a large private school for my last 2 years with similar results. The fact is the JC will check with your school of choice to see if the credits will transfer before you even register for the JC classes.

Tuition inflation is a disgrace, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the tuition inflation over the last few years has been due to the ability of parents to take out home equity to finance their kids' education.

Is there any data about where this money is going? I've got a PhD but work in the private sector. Most professors (in technical fields) are essentially commissioned salespeople these days, who are expected to pay their way and more by bringing in grant money. Undergrad courses, especially in the big schools like Harvard and MIT, are being taught by grad students and postdocs.

My assumption is that this all goes into the academic equivalent of dark matter, the administration. I was the main researcher on a partnership project with another university in Asia. After working on it for a year, we go to a cocktail party with our pals from the other university and all these people who I had never talked to and never heard about showed up. These were the admin people who apparently were working on this project. News to me.

I think there's a lot of the economy that felt very comfortable raising their prices in the last few years because consumers would use home equity funny money to pay it.

"Lenders didn't see that things were going too far, partly because we were too close to it, but mostly because objective evidence of this credit risk did not show up in our delinquencies and financial performance until it was too late to prevent significant losses."

We didn't know we would lose money until we lost money, just like putting money on 00 and not realizing that it would land on another number till the ball stopped.

Perhaps college tuition skyrocketed over the past few years at least in part for the same reason housing prices did: cheap and easy mortgages and HELOCs.

Same supply-and-demand dynamic.

Any loan with a prepayment penalty is a Subprime loan in my book. No matter what those 'creative' NYT writers think.

What we have here is the denouement of a speculator. Mr. Doyle has taken $39K per year tax-free out of his home since 1995 - close to the average after-tax income of an American family. This despite making “six figures” as an aerospace engineer who is presumably good at math. That is a brand-new Porsche every other year – tax free. That is three entire college educations at Harvard for his kids - tax free. (I just checked, Harvard is 46K per year now, but way less in 1995). But what did he actually spend all that money on? He's in the Bay Area - I'm guessing his "bankrupt stocks" were bubble technology stocks that crashed. This guy is a double-down speculator who was funding his equity get-rich-quick habit with his housing get-rich beliefs. He's now managed to participate front and center in two destructive bubbles, and he's the victim. Somehow my sympathy is lacking.

"What is wrong with junior college?" Agwee asks...

Nothing wrong with Jr. college, per se. The problem is the overwhelming portion of the student body that treat it like 13th grade. My fairly recent experience is that the vast majority of students who go to junior or community colleges are simply biding time until 'real life' hits (read as - mommy and daddy cut off their allowance) and to make their parents shut up about "going to college". They wile away the hours playing cards in the student union; go to class as little as necessary, which hardly impacts their grades because the instructors are just passing the trash like they did all through the years of primary education.

It takes an unusually motivated student to overcome those surroundings to be successful; and such a uniquely motivated student could likely have found a scholarship into a school with better prospects of advancement and fewer obstacles.

Much of the benefit to be derived from attenting a marquee university is not the substance of the education, but the people that you come to know. You have a new business idea? The CC grad walks into the local 1st National and asks for an SBA loan and lauches an undercapitalized venture that equates to a low-paying job. The HYS (Harvard-Yale-Stanford) grad calls up his frat buddy who is now with a venture fund or investment bank and gets more money that he probably needs to make a go of it. Where does that show up in the college recruiting statistics?

Janster: What you are forgetting is that after 25 years, I will have paid the mortgage balance down. So, if I put down $ 20 K on the $100 K house and sell it for $ 200 K, I walk away with perhaps $ 180 K. Not a bad return on $ 20 K, no matter how you slice it. And I got to live in and enjoy the house. Of course, I paid mortgage and taxes during that time, but I would have had to pay rent otherwise. My point is that even with very modest appreciation, you do fine. What happened the last few years was homeowner greed (along with lender and other greed) pure and simple.

Aheadofthecurve writes:
I don't want to beat yesterday's dead horse, but just let me say this. I don't discount anyone's experiences or the data, but I think I am in the same boat as many millions who don't read or post on this board. Call us the "Silent Majority" if you want. I own a house that I bought many years ago to live in, not as an investment... I do resent the fact that one way or another I and those like me will end up paying for all the foolishness, through higher taxes, a weakened economy or lower investment profits, or, most likely, a combination of all of the above. But I am resigned to the fact that I will be paying.

If you add to your case of pre-bubble buyers all the renters out there who avoided this mess (like me) then one has to ask to whom are politicians pandering? Really, aren't there more of "us" than bubble-buyers with negative equity?

Peterbob: I think the politicians are not concerned (and shouldn't be) with Mr Doyle and those like him. They are concerned (and should be) with:
(1) The functioning of the financial system; (2) The 401K plans of prudent homeowners like me and renters like you; (3) The finances of state and municipal governments.

Unfortunately, the need to protect #s 1-3 may necessitate a bail-out of Mr Doyle and other fools. I don't like it, but I accept it.

Why is it so hard for me to drum up sympathy for these people? To be fair, the individuals in both examples clearly made very bad decisions about their finances. On the other hand, the use of refinancing to tap illusory "equity" to pay bills, pay tuition, buy cars, go on vacation, etc, should clearly indicate that something has gone dreadfully wrong with our economy over the past 18 to 25 years. Despite official protestations to the contrary, inflation has not been "quiescent" - costs have risen across a number of product sectors. Coupled with a stagnation in real wage growth that began in the early 1970's and accelerated fro the mid-'80's onwards, this has placed the middle - and working-classes (what's left of them) in a tight spot.

But that's okay - by "outsourcing" manufacturing and associated management jobs to low-wage countries, we can beep inflation at bay while American move into "higher margin" service-sector jobs. Right? Right?

Sure.

Since when is EVERYONE...ENTITLED to a college education?

The best way to destroy the value of something is to make it free.

"She said that she now wishes she had taken a traditional fixed-rate loan when she bought the home."

This is the dumbest thing I've read all day. She couldn't afford a 30/fixed then and she can't now. Maybe she really wished she'd paid in full and not got a mortgage at all. Or maybe she wished she had a magic wand that could turn the house into a castle with a pretty prince and dancing unicorns.

It's these retards who sent real estate out of reach for people who save/can do math.

Tanta: "... but the parents' egos demands that they go to a prestige school they can't afford.

I am, btw, the proud graduate of the local state U."

I suggest you also started and executed your career when the credentialism and credential "branding" was not nearly as bad as today. These days, Google "prefers" (yet not quite requires) a bachelor degree for its Massage Operations Coordinators.

In much of the "prime job" industry, the bachelor is the new high school diploma, in the software world you have many Comp Sci PhDs in ordinary programmer/bug fixer roles. In a lackluster job market, if you don't have the pedigree you're out, or relegated to the lower tiers most heavily affected by offshoring and slipping working conditions and benefits. The worth of the degrees has apparently slipped likewise, as opposed to the price.

It's a pricing-in effect on all sides.

On the other hand, the use of refinancing to tap illusory "equity" to pay bills, pay tuition, buy cars, go on vacation, etc, should clearly indicate that something has gone dreadfully wrong with our economy over the past 18 to 25 years.

Indeed. Why have salaries remained stagnant while the cost of living continues to go up and up and up?

Why must people, with both partners working, leverage home equity to maintain a standard of living that used to be available to a family with a single wage earner?

The recent economic expansion has benefited corporations almost exclusively. Little trickle down, to borrow a phrase from a bygone era.

Tuition inflation is a disgrace, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the tuition inflation over the last few years has been due to the ability of parents to take out home equity to finance their kids' education.

Couple that with the availability of public and private student loan funding for those whose parents can't or won't fund it on the old homestead. I talk to a lot of young people and the student loan debt burden is crippling.

The recklessness of going from a loan of $275K to $740 on the same house is unfathomable to any responsible person. I'm not sure why anybody should have any pity for such idiotic act. Portrayal by NYT of this person as victim is even more intriguing ...downright substandard journalism!

JudgeSmales writes: Wow. Dumb in housing and dumb in equities, too. Real geniuses!

Then they decided to hang their dirty laundry out to a NYTimes reporter. They just won the dumb trifecta.

The people who finance an undergrad english degree at Podunk U with $80,000 in loans are the same people who take neg am loans. I have trouble finding sympathy for someone who takes out education loans of 2-3 times what they can expect to earn upon graduation.

My law degree cost me over $150,000 (half with variable interest private loans), but starting salaries at big firms are high enough to make it work. Of course, there's thousands in my cohort at second and third tier schools who expected the big bucks and made the same gamble, only to find themselves making $45k a year with a mortgage's worth of loans and a crappy degree.

I think I'm going to encourage my kids to be plumbers and electricians. Good, honest work, and no credential wars.

I have to agree with Ethan Stark. While tuition may be outrageous, Mr. Doyle took out of his house more than $450k, which would have put his daughter through Harvard many times over. His excuse looks pretty thin.

js: Isn't what you are saying effectively "why do they play Musical Chairs when they know there isn't a chair for everybody"? (And that after having obtained a chair.) Of course in the game all the chairs are the same, and all the players are placed in the same situation, so the analogy can be made only in metaphorical terms.

We live in the la-la land of Connecticut. And it DID make sense to do some cash-out refinancing with ARMs when the initial rate + the first year maximum reset rate times 0.625 was about equal to ( or less than ) tax exempt municipal bonds with roughly the same maturity. But it was prudent to keep ample powder dry to refinance into a fixed rate when the 2.50 over one-year LIBOR made it not work any more.

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