Median price already down 17.8% off the peak. More importantly, price declines lag volume (sales) decreases. So, those estimates of 40-50% declines off bubble highs seem plausible.
Not just plausible, pretty much inevitable. Heck, we haven't even had the recessionary effects hit yet. The state's budget cuts are only now getting started.
If anyone hadn't noticed, someone posted that California sales & use tax collections were off 9.7% YOY for January. The trouble's only just started here...
What's a foreclosure party supposed to be like? I mean, is it before eviction, where you get wild & crazy helping the FB's totally trash the place? Or, is it afterwards when you jump on a big fancy bus and tour REOs while sipping wine and eating cheese?
My realtor in OC called me today and said that now is the 'best' time to buy, rates are low and the conforming limit is higher. The prices will increase as there are many people waiting on the sidelines who can 'afford' 700k+ homes.
I think i will take a pass.
The key words here are "market turbulence". While people still believe that this is a temporary dip in price, markets will continue to seize. The question is, why do people think prices will jump right back up? Leaving basic stupidity aside, what if some are assuming the following scenario:
government generates inflation, lifting nominal house prices and helping people pay their mortgages. This generates big losses for banks, where government uses taxpayer money to repair them.
What do you all think? 10% inflation should be enough to do this? I think we are close to that number.
Although we've already covered this ad nauseum, the only type of inflation that matters to housing is "wage inflation" and that isn't happening. Inflation in all other things actually takes money away from people's housing budget. As long as we have a weakening economy and "global wage arbitrage" there's no way to inflate our way out of the housing bubble trouble.
Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bonds sold by U.S. municipal borrowers with rates set through periodic auctions failed to attract enough buyers as banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. that run the bidding won't commit their own capital to the debt.
Rates on $100 million of bonds sold by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, with bidding run by Goldman, soared to 20 percent yesterday from 4.3 percent a week ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Presbyterian Healthcare in Albuquerque and New York state's Metropolitan Transportation Authority also experienced failures, officials said.
tj, I am not saying this scenarios reduces economic troubles, I am just saying maybe people are refusing to sell low because that is the scenario they are hoping for?
Because otherwise it is just plain ignorance, or worse.
Greater Phoenix resale market in January comparable to 2002 levels
MESA, Ariz. The resale home market did not start the new year with a bang. The 3,350 recorded sales is below last years 4,520 sales and the record of 9,360 sales set in January 2005. However, it is very comparable to the 3,345 recorded sales of January 2002.
The median home price opened the year at $230,000, which is below the $232,000 of December 2007 and last years $260,000. It represents a continuation in declining median price, which started at $265,000 in July 2007. This is the lowest monthly median home price since $221,000 in April 2005, but better than the $194,000 reported in January of 2005
Median sale price is down 12% YoY, yet asking price is flat.
OT - From across the pond, the BBC had some very good summation with data and graphics on the emergence of the Subprime crisis. In particular, how it strongly affected, and possibly emerged from, inner city lending (i.e., Cleveland).
Yeah, when you're drowning you'll grab at anything that looks like a life preserver. I think it ties into people's basically optimistic nature -- they just figure things can't get any worse (but, of course, they do). I've been there.
Since we're talking about some of the early, regional sales report, I thought I'd check in from my area of South Florida. One of the local firms puts out some early stats every month. The numbers show:
Sales fell 45.3% YOY to 383 units from 700 in January 2007.
The inventory of homes for sale rose 7.3% to 24,550 from 22,888. That means we had roughly 64 months (or more than 5 years) of supply on the market -- a truly staggering sum.
What did prices do in response? They tanked. The median price of an existing home fell 19.2% YOY, or $57,000, to a new cycle low of $240,000.
Its great to see that So. Cal. had another leg down in sales.
Financing is drying up faster than sellers can cut prices and interest rates can drop.
I was really thinking we were at the bottom in terms of sales. But I am glad to see I overestimated.
Sellers and their "real estate expert" adviser/agents have zero idea about current market pricing. The buyers have an exact idea between what the bank tells them they can afford and the crap that exists in that price range... buyers are saying No.
In California, purchase money mortgages are non-recourse under Civil Code section 580b. Refinancing makes them recourse. However, even if the loan is recourse, the lender has to go through judicial foreclosure in order to get a deficiency judgment (and the borrower has a one year redemption period). Civil Code section 580d bars deficiency judgments if the lender elects non-judicial foreclosure. Not sure how it works in other states.
Record low sales volume (at least for the last 20 years) is amazing considering the additional number of homes that have been built during that time. The "experts" said we were near the floor on sales because they couldn't imagine them going lower than they had in the past. Just one more wrong prediction from the RE "experts." With volume continuing to tank, prices will continue to fall hard.
That's a pretty stunning plunge in price & sales. I would not be the least bit surprised in Fannie, Freddie & FHA, the intermediate bagholders (until the ultimates bagholder US taxpayer ) get busy we actually get a temporary bump in both price and sales and we get a monster rally that then soon gets clobbered. This loan limt crankup was done to coincide with Spring selling. We'll see. It'll be a great short op...
The one key factor in the "government generates inflation, lifting nominal house prices and helping people pay their mortgages" is the implicit assumption that WAGES will keep up with inflation.
Based on the last 30 years in the US, I think that this is highly improbable. It's too easy to move to lower labor cost areas (or bring cheap workers in). I don't want to highjack this thread into a political diatribe, but many industries have moved to cheap labor cost areas (if they can). When they can't, they simply "import" cheap labor (see, for example meatpacking or homebuilding).
There seems to be a common thread that the US will either a) undergo a 2nd great depression or b) it's the 1970's all over again. What may actually be happening is a return to the way that the world has been for the last 5000 years (with the exception of the period 1950-1990): the preponderance of productive assets held by a relative handful. In other words, the end of the "true" middle class.
These CA numbers are funny. I'm just wondering how much the new limits in conventional mortgages will change things. Personally, I believe there will a short-term bump, followed quickly by a fall back to reality. (A dead house bounce.)
Only 15 and 30-yr fixed.
No Interest Only.
No High CLTV - 80% max.
Pricing hits.
Only SFR detached.
Full documentation regardless of automated findings.
And this will do what to "save" the housing market? Seems like all of CA and most other places are basically excluded from an FNM/FRE "bailout". This was nothing more than another scam to buy more time for pigmen to hide losses in the Milky Way and will do nothing to help JSP or any other FB.
This isn't on point but I had to pass it on!
Bush Administration Hides More Data, Shuts Down Website Tracking U.S. Economic Indicators
The U.S. economy is faltering. Family debt is on the rise, benefits are disappearing, the deficit is skyrocketing, and the mortgage crisis has worsened. Conservatives have attempted to deflect attention from the crisis, by blaming the medias negative coverage and insisting the United States is not headed toward a recession, despite what economists are predicting.
The Bush administrations latest move is to simply hide the data. Forbes has awarded EconomicIndicators.gov one of its Best of the Web awards. As Forbes explains, the government site provides an invaluable service to the public for accessing U.S. economic data:
This site is maintained by the Economics and Statistics Administration and combines data collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, like GDP and net imports and exports, and the Census Bureau, like retail sales and durable goods shipments. The site simply links to the relevant departments Web site. This might not seem like a big deal, but doing it yourselfsay, trying to find retail sales data on the Census Bureaus siteis such an exercise in futility that it will convince you why this portal is necessary.
Yet the Bush administration has decided to shut down this site because of budgetary constraints, effective March 1:
These CA numbers are funny. I'm just wondering how much the new limits in conventional mortgages will change things. Personally, I believe there will a short-term bump, followed quickly by a fall back to reality.
Well, this is some unconfirmed internet info... I'm desperately searching for confirmation but, allegedly the new Fannie/Freddie Jumbo limits will include:
Only 15 and 30-yr fixed.
No Interest Only.
No High CLTV - 80% max.
Pricing hits.
Only SFR detached.
Full documentation regardless of automated findings.
If true... they could raise the limits to infinity and it won't help CA. Anecdotally, on the westside of LA, where "prices will never fall®" people are gleefully awaiting the raised limits because then the market will be saved. It's very frustrating here for a potential buyer.
"crispy&cole writes:
NOTE on these numbers - THEY INCLUDE FORCLOSURES AS SALES. This is distorting tranasction and volumes.
If a home is repoed the sale is included at the loan amount and the sales is counted. Back these out and it is much worse."
DQ does NOT include trustee sales in their numbers. They include homes that have gone back the the beneficiary and have been sold via the MLS or auction (like REDC auction not courthouse auction).
It is arms lengths transactions only, both FSBO and MLS but not houses going back to the trustees. Those are shown in their quarterly foreclosure reports.
The numbers reported today are an accurate represenation of the housing activity on the open market in So. Cal.
The C.A.R. report generated by DQ includes only MLS sales and thus the sales numbers are lower.
JBR your info comes from the CFO (or was it CEO) of Suntrust mortgage, he sent out a memo saying that was his opinion of how fannie/freddie conforming increase would shake out.
As long as we have a weakening economy and "global wage arbitrage" there's no way to inflate our way out of the housing bubble trouble.
Never say "never".
More general inflation won't "save" any FBs or resurrect the RE market, but at this point, what other option does the government really have? Defaulting on it's foreign and domestic debts?
Collectively, we face the Twin Towers of future unfunded Medicare & S.S. liabilities, National Debt higher than ever, and consumers hitting their own Peak Debt. What realistic option is left?
Heck, if things get bad enough, they can always just add a zero or two to our bank accounts, Brazil-style. No "wage inflation" necessary.
If it's true that this data includes Trustee Sales, then it is potentially very misleading on both volume and price. Most lenders will "credit bid" the entire unpaid principal balance at trustee sale, so those prices will reflect the 80 or 90 LTV loan amount (unless of course it was a neg am loan, when the LTV could have been higher).
What's the source for the comment that these sales include Trustee Sales?
Last month's median was 17.8 percent below the $505,000 peak reached last spring and summer. While the steep decline in median sales price does reflect a drop in prices, it also reflects significant shifts in the types of homes selling. Particularly noticeable is a drop-off in sales of more expensive homes financed with "jumbo" mortgages.
The new $729K GSE CLLs just signed into law ought to be changing that in a big hurry. And if it doesn't, Congress will simply keep changing the rules until it does. It's great to be a government, ain't it?
Only 15 and 30-yr fixed becomes "up to 100-yr whatever" No Interest Only becomes "Interest-Only and neg-ams welcome!" No High CLTV - 80% max. becomes "200% LTV ok" Only SFR detached. becomes "spec condos welcome!" Full documentation becomes "don't worry, we'll fill in those pesky numbers for ya' later"
Do you remember last Spring, Mar-May when the builders and lenders had a punishing rally (to the shorts). It was a bullshit driven rally fueled by ridiculous tiny upticks in NAR & BLS numbers. I didn't say the housing market gets saved. Only that we might see an uptick in some numbers. It doesn't take much, and this last report is low enough that it makes for easy comparisons. The bulls will fire off a monster short covering rally as they extrapolate their meager upticks to infinity.
I studied a trustee sales list for my county compared to the total sales for the county and got the numbers in the ballpark of DQ (trustee minus total sales is ballpark DQ sales). I am very confident of my assertion.
MAB, my understanding is a refi is recourse in every state.
Cal, that is my understanding on foreclosures - DQ does not count the trustee sale, only the sale of the foreclosure to an unrelated buyer - so I think the DQ numbers reflect actually sales. I disagree with our good friend crispy&cole on this one.
"I'm going to get a check for $1200, which i can dab my eyes with as I watch the country go down in flames"
The good news is that this rebate check isn't free money and counts against your 2009 return so a lot of folks will be surprised when the 2009 check is a little lite. LOL!! ROFL!
the article says that most of the price decline can be attributed to the slowdown in "jumbo" sales. doesn't that mean that with this new stimulus package, the median price will start going back up, since jumbo loans will be attainable again?
I am reposting this into this current comment string in the hope of getting more info out of the MofT.
SeattleSun
Ministry of Truth writes
Keep tabs on the recorder's office to see when the notice of sale comes up. From there you probably have 20-30 days until the sale.
Once the bank takes ownership try dealing with them but they will probably just post a 5 day to quit notice.
Note: we are a very mobil operation and could easly move in 5 days if we had to and really wouldn't care as long as the NCAA Basket Ball Tournament is over. Truth is the lease runs to July 31 and we really want out of here on April 1st.
After the 5 days the sherrif will show up and escort you out if you have not already left.
Ministry of Truth
To: Ministry of Truth
First thanks for the response.
The "reconveyance" what ever that means has already happened. Is that considered a "sale" or does this just mean that the bank can now sell it?
"Auction of Sale Pending" seems to be the status of the property. I think this means an auction is pending. Is this what you say to watch for with a 20 to 30 day lead time?
I don't understand what happens at the auction but doesn't the bank just buy it for the outstanding amount on the mortagage which is $411,650?
In the 600 unit complex I am in I believe there are at least 50 units in foreclousre.
Note: our lease says we should get 60 days notice. Is that meaningless especially if we stopped paying the rent? I would trade a few months free rent for loss of a 60 day notice clause.
Mine is going into a forex account- just seems poetic >; )
My mom is about to crack finally. Last night she asked 'are you sure you're never going to move back down here?' My answer was 'I'm sure; I'd rather have rectal cancer then go back to OC'.
So madre is now looking at selling the monster in HB and coming up here. All the other relatives who owned in NB and Tustin Hills have already fled.
-- In California, the median household income was $53,629 in 2005. And five California cities were among the 10 wealthiest nationwide: San Jose's median household income was $70,560, San Francisco's $57,496, San Diego's $55,637, Anaheim's $52,158 and Riverside's $50,416.
doesn't that mean that with this new stimulus package, the median price will start going back up, since jumbo loans will be attainable again?
Um, no. The problem lies in the word "attainable". The people that were buying before cannot buy now, because they couldn't afford the homes without those 100%, stated income, interest only (or negative amortizing) loans. For those with good credit, down payments and sufficient income, well, jumbos have been and will continue to be available -- although the rates on them may come down a tiny bit.
jackk writes:
the article says that most of the price decline can be attributed to the slowdown in "jumbo" sales. doesn't that mean that with this new stimulus package, the median price will start going back up, since jumbo loans will be attainable again?
Not until Congress changes the type of loans the GSEs can purchase. If/when they change the rules allowing GSEs to buy I/O, neg-ams, option-ARMs, NINJAs and other wonderful new "affordability" loan products, then, yes, it could act as a government "put" under prices.
Personally, I'm hoping for a Patriot Act II that reclassifies savers/renters as economic terrorits and raises payroll taxes to 90% for anyone who refuses to buy a McMansion with an option-ARM. Considering recent legislation and proposals on the table, I wouldn't rule it out.
OT- I just finished listening to Gretchen Morgenstern of the NY Times on "Fresh Air w/ Terry Gross" on NPR (podcast is probably available at their website) Nothing you haven't read here, but a sign of the times- even a radio program heavily into the Arts is talking about the economy, banks, credit, and Buffett!
There are places where they use DQ data and another data engine (On Board LLC) such as on the Sac Bee Sales data page. The confusion is when you have 2 different source that appear to be the same.
I and many others have caught the TDs going back to bank being listed as sales on that engine. When you have such a small amount of volume like my local market, those few errors do corrupt the data. The question has always been, are these also part of the DQ dataset or that data engine pulling from somewhere else?
And I couldn't give you an estimate on how frequently this occurs since I've only run into these TD 'sales' when looking in my search area and have never tried to quantify the errors.
what types of loans will be accepted under this raised conforming limit? will they accept IOs, what will the min CLTV be, etc? when will that be decided and who will decide it - OFHEO, Fannie, the Congress? also who gets to decide if the new 700k jumbos will be sold with other TBAs (in which case everyone's mortgage rates will go up), or will they be sold as a group (in which case the interest rates on them might end up being the same as before)?
MY GOD !! You kicked our ass over here. We are at about 10k inventory with roughly 250 sales. This includes lots because I really don't feel like separating them. The numbers looked decent in Nov.(snowbirds) and lately they tanked.
I am trying to figure out roughly how much hidden inventory is around here.
I went down a street today that had 4 for sale signs,1 fsbo and it looks like 9-11 empty but not yet REO homes...
If you wanted to prove DQ wrong, you could purchase their sales data set (after all they are in the business of selling this data) for a month and find a trustee sale shown in their data.
SeattleSun, you should be able to find out the sales date once it is set, either by the owner getting a notice, public records and I think it is also advertised in the newspaper.
A notice of foreclosure sale must be made within 21 days of the date of the sale and at a time, place and manner as stated in the notice of default. Sale must take place in the same manner as an execution sale would occur in a judicial foreclosure.
If it is easy to move you could just wait until the 5 days to quite notice is posted on your door.
Was just reading it. It sounds like the reporting function for that paper is hitting the total sales ("Prospect Finder Farm Services" must just show all sales) but the report generated monthly by DQ news follows their methodology of removing non-arms length transactions from the total sales.
Again, I checked the numbers for myself for 1 month in Ventura. Looking off the raw sales data I have and a Trustee list for one month and the number was close to what was reported.
I just think the person SD on housingdoom was taking one thing (the total sales reported by the record searchlight from Dataquick) and applying to another (the report generated monthly by Dataquick) and assuming he/she was correct in his/her accusation.
I bet that the rave partying crowd is going to catch on to abandoned property craze and begin tracking foreclosures to schedule parties. Hey, if the renter has left the door open in response to the posted notice, they will move in for five days, right?
Mike, what part of South Florida are you at? I'm in Miami, Hialeah.
MAB--in Florida all mtg loans have the possibility of a deficiency judgment, in fact, it is a matter of right, but lenders--up to now--never, ever ask for them.
Price stout - I dont disagree with DQ's explanation. I agree with Cal 100% - he is right. My point is I don't think they follow this methodology 100% of the time.
I dont see anywhere that the data set published by the record searchlight doesnt includge foreclosures either. I found a similiar data set on Ventura County Star (same owner as record searchlight I think) and the numbers are "weird" and I have no idea what they represent. The data I looked at included new home sales and foreclosuers but there are homes I know that closed that arent shown (the numbers for a particular month seem low). Basically, until you find out the methodology of the data you are looking at, dont assume it applies to another set of data.
Don't laugh, but I know someone going to DR Horton's "sale" looking for a condo in the Palm Desert area.
On the report CR cited and linked, the more important language to me is buried:
"The median price paid for a home financed with a conforming loan was $380,000 in January, down 5.0 percent from $400,000 a year ago, and down 7.3 percent from the $410,000 peak reached in March and April of 2007."
I understand "a 17.8% drop" makes a much better news story, but that number only makes sense if one assumes absolutely no change in the market for jumbo loans which of course has changed dramatically since last summer.
"Respondents voiced concern over the threat to credit markets from diminished liquidity. In a sharp reversal from prior surveys, respondents stressed a 'decline in banks and other investors' willingness to lend as the greatest risk currently posed to the leveraged loan market. 'The lack of investor demand in this market will make it hard for high risk borrowers to get fresh capital or refinance existing obligations in 2008,' said Senior Director William May."
SeattleSun, you should be able to find out the sales date once it is set, either by the owner getting a notice, public records and I think it is also advertised in the newspaper.
A notice of foreclosure sale must be made within 21 days of the date of the sale and at a time, place and manner as stated in the notice of default. Sale must take place in the same manner as an execution sale would occur in a judicial foreclosure.
If it is easy to move you could just wait until the 5 days to quite notice is posted on your door.
Ministry of Truth | 02.13.08 - 5:43 pm | #
To: Ministry of Truth
Thanks again.
A question on the other side of the coin.
But first I note by your "bunny ranch" comment that you are a Las Vegas or NV guy? The last time I drove HWY 95 (aka the HWY of Love)from LV to Reno the bunny ranch was closed. Another piece of "distressed real estate?"
Now for the question.
Q. Would like to buy a distressed luxary condo LV but can't quit figure out how to locate the available list.
SeattleSun, you should be able to find out the sales date once it is set, either by the owner getting a notice, public records and I think it is also advertised in the newspaper.
A notice of foreclosure sale must be made within 21 days of the date of the sale and at a time, place and manner as stated in the notice of default. Sale must take place in the same manner as an execution sale would occur in a judicial foreclosure.
If it is easy to move you could just wait until the 5 days to quite notice is posted on your door.
Ministry of Truth | 02.13.08 - 5:43 pm | #
Thanks again for the info.
Nerds on this site should understand that although I have a BS Aerospace and MBA both cum lauda and my math skills could put a cruise missle thru your bedroom window tonight I have no idea what these terms mean:
1) notice of foreclosure sale
2) an execution sale
3) a judicial foreclosure
4) quite notice
Is there a primer on the voculbary used on this site?
While I have someone attention is NV a "non recourse" state? I actually know what that means!
I think I can help with the terms (but I don't know whether NV is a recourse state).
1) notice of foreclosure sale: a notice that is recorded and usually published prior to a foreclosure sale (the timing of the notice varies by state - in California I believe it has to be recorded and published at least 21 days before the foreclosure auction).
2) an execution sale: not typically used here in California in relation to RE (usually it would be a sale of a debtor's personal property to satisfy a judgment); however, it could refer to a foreclosure sale.
3) a judicial foreclosure: depending on the state, there may be non-judicial foreclosure and judicial foreclosure. Non-judicial foreclosure is done by way of a trustee sale/auction. Judicial foreclosure requires that the lender file a complaint with the court to foreclose on the loan and go through the entire lawsuit through trial. Typically only used when required as it is much longer (a year would be typical) and more expensive than non-judicial foreclosure. In California, it is required in order to get a deficiency judgment (assuming the loan is recourse in the first place).
4) quite notice: I think you mean a notice to quit. This is a notice given to a tenant or occupant of property by the owner telling the occupant that they must leave (quit) the property (e.g., because the lease term has expired or the lease was wiped out by foreclosure). It's usually required as a pre-requisite to filing an eviction lawsuit.
Nerds on this site should understand that although I have a BS Aerospace and MBA both cum lauda and my math skills could put a cruise missle thru your bedroom window tonight
Apparently the cum laude accolades weren't in the Latin arts. Nerds don't usually get marked off for "speling" except when bragging.
Regarding the methodology used by DQ,I believe it has changed.There was a lot of discussion and outrage about this,and I believe it was the Marin Real Estate Bubble,or Sacramento Landing that had a quote from DQ acknowledging that they did in fact include foreclosures as sales because it was a reconveyance.This would have been in late 2006 or early 2007.Sonoma housing bubble also covered this in some detail,and anyone patient enough to search the archives should be able to find the quote.
The gubermint better hurry up and start handing out toxic loans backed by the taxpayer or housing might become affordable again! The horror!
Maybe larger rebate checks would help, or instead of checks, mailing out 0% down, interest-only, 150% financing loans for McMansions. It could be like a lotto, where you buy tickets to "win" huge loans on unaffordable houses!
No area was spared!
Orange County is down 13% YOY. So much for being "different"
Median price already down 17.8% off the peak. More importantly, price declines lag volume (sales) decreases. So, those estimates of 40-50% declines off bubble highs seem plausible.
most homeowners assume home price has gone up YTY
most sellers think all these turbulence in temporary so asking for wtf price
dead lock
Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae, the largest source of U.S. home-loan money, faces a proposed class-action lawsuit over as much as $7 billion it earned on property owners' escrow accounts starting in the 1970s.
Fannie Mae Escrow Grab Exposes Shareholders to 24% Loss in Suit - Bloomberg.com
NOTE on these numbers - THEY INCLUDE FORCLOSURES AS SALES. This is distorting tranasction and volumes.
If a home is repoed the sale is included at the loan amount and the sales is counted. Back these out and it is much worse.
Not just plausible, pretty much inevitable. Heck, we haven't even had the recessionary effects hit yet. The state's budget cuts are only now getting started.
If anyone hadn't noticed, someone posted that California sales & use tax collections were off 9.7% YOY for January. The trouble's only just started here...
How about all these speculators who bought at the top. Negative carry on an asset that is plunging in value. Ouch! That has to hurt.
All the weak hands are going to be much better off defaulting sooner rather than later. MUCH SOONER!
We'll all be attending foreclosure parties real soon.
Add in 2007 yoy inflation at 4.1% and the real losses exceed 20% from peak and are still falling.
Leverage is a bitch in reverse.
What's a foreclosure party supposed to be like? I mean, is it before eviction, where you get wild & crazy helping the FB's totally trash the place? Or, is it afterwards when you jump on a big fancy bus and tour REOs while sipping wine and eating cheese?
My realtor in OC called me today and said that now is the 'best' time to buy, rates are low and the conforming limit is higher. The prices will increase as there are many people waiting on the sidelines who can 'afford' 700k+ homes.
I think i will take a pass.
Mike - was it a answering machine with a message first recorded on his first day on the job?
The key words here are "market turbulence". While people still believe that this is a temporary dip in price, markets will continue to seize. The question is, why do people think prices will jump right back up? Leaving basic stupidity aside, what if some are assuming the following scenario:
government generates inflation, lifting nominal house prices and helping people pay their mortgages. This generates big losses for banks, where government uses taxpayer money to repair them.
What do you all think? 10% inflation should be enough to do this? I think we are close to that number.
Missed Information,
Although we've already covered this ad nauseum, the only type of inflation that matters to housing is "wage inflation" and that isn't happening. Inflation in all other things actually takes money away from people's housing budget. As long as we have a weakening economy and "global wage arbitrage" there's no way to inflate our way out of the housing bubble trouble.
[oops -- should've been ad nauseam]
in case you missed it from the end 4 threads back:
Bloomberg.com refer=home
By Martin Z. Braun
Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bonds sold by U.S. municipal borrowers with rates set through periodic auctions failed to attract enough buyers as banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. that run the bidding won't commit their own capital to the debt.
Rates on $100 million of bonds sold by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, with bidding run by Goldman, soared to 20 percent yesterday from 4.3 percent a week ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Presbyterian Healthcare in Albuquerque and New York state's Metropolitan Transportation Authority also experienced failures, officials said.
Does refinancing alter the recourse/non-recourse status of a mortgage in CA, FL or NV?
tj, I am not saying this scenarios reduces economic troubles, I am just saying maybe people are refusing to sell low because that is the scenario they are hoping for?
Because otherwise it is just plain ignorance, or worse.
sorry for bad link on failed bond auction from 2:37 post above
again
Auction-Bond Failures Roil Munis, Pushing Rates Up (Update5) - Bloomberg.com
Greater Phoenix resale market in January comparable to 2002 levels
MESA, Ariz. The resale home market did not start the new year with a bang. The 3,350 recorded sales is below last years 4,520 sales and the record of 9,360 sales set in January 2005. However, it is very comparable to the 3,345 recorded sales of January 2002.
The median home price opened the year at $230,000, which is below the $232,000 of December 2007 and last years $260,000. It represents a continuation in declining median price, which started at $265,000 in July 2007. This is the lowest monthly median home price since $221,000 in April 2005, but better than the $194,000 reported in January of 2005
Median sale price is down 12% YoY, yet asking price is flat.
OT - From across the pond, the BBC had some very good summation with data and graphics on the emergence of the Subprime crisis. In particular, how it strongly affected, and possibly emerged from, inner city lending (i.e., Cleveland).
BBC NEWS | Business | The US sub-prime crisis in graphics
They also show repossessions (UK foreclosures) rising recently.
BBC NEWS | Business | Home repossessions rise to 27,000
TJ & the Bear,
What's a foreclosure party supposed to be like?
Anytime you can shed the chains of an untenable situation its time for a celebration.
Missed Information,
Yeah, when you're drowning you'll grab at anything that looks like a life preserver. I think it ties into people's basically optimistic nature -- they just figure things can't get any worse (but, of course, they do). I've been there.
Since we're talking about some of the early, regional sales report, I thought I'd check in from my area of South Florida. One of the local firms puts out some early stats every month. The numbers show:
Its great to see that So. Cal. had another leg down in sales.
Financing is drying up faster than sellers can cut prices and interest rates can drop.
I was really thinking we were at the bottom in terms of sales. But I am glad to see I overestimated.
Sellers and their "real estate expert" adviser/agents have zero idea about current market pricing. The buyers have an exact idea between what the bank tells them they can afford and the crap that exists in that price range... buyers are saying No.
Anyone know what a Hub home is?
--
Just as UGLY in the Bay Area:
DQNews - DataQuick Real Estate Headlines and Statistics
PPSF for Santa Clara Co. is down from $517 to $436 in six months and it was $491 a year ago. Either way big price drops and even bigger volume drop.
California sinking.
Jas
Shnaps: "Anyone know what a Hub home is?"
Boston refers to itself as 'The Hub'.
Shnaps writes:
Anyone know what a Hub home is?
At one time Boston was the center of the universe and thus the nickname "The Hub." Try he Top of the Hub restaurant/bar at The Pru.
MAB:
In California, purchase money mortgages are non-recourse under Civil Code section 580b. Refinancing makes them recourse. However, even if the loan is recourse, the lender has to go through judicial foreclosure in order to get a deficiency judgment (and the borrower has a one year redemption period). Civil Code section 580d bars deficiency judgments if the lender elects non-judicial foreclosure. Not sure how it works in other states.
But, but, but,... the Dow, it's up! So everything is OK, right?
Record low sales volume (at least for the last 20 years) is amazing considering the additional number of homes that have been built during that time. The "experts" said we were near the floor on sales because they couldn't imagine them going lower than they had in the past. Just one more wrong prediction from the RE "experts." With volume continuing to tank, prices will continue to fall hard.
Rob Dawg -
What do you mean, "used to be"?
Har!
PP
Rob Dawg -
What do you mean, "used to be"?
I moved, thus the center shifted to SoCal.
That's a pretty stunning plunge in price & sales. I would not be the least bit surprised in Fannie, Freddie & FHA, the intermediate bagholders (until the ultimates bagholder US taxpayer ) get busy we actually get a temporary bump in both price and sales and we get a monster rally that then soon gets clobbered. This loan limt crankup was done to coincide with Spring selling. We'll see. It'll be a great short op...
Missing Information:
The one key factor in the "government generates inflation, lifting nominal house prices and helping people pay their mortgages" is the implicit assumption that WAGES will keep up with inflation.
Based on the last 30 years in the US, I think that this is highly improbable. It's too easy to move to lower labor cost areas (or bring cheap workers in). I don't want to highjack this thread into a political diatribe, but many industries have moved to cheap labor cost areas (if they can). When they can't, they simply "import" cheap labor (see, for example meatpacking or homebuilding).
There seems to be a common thread that the US will either a) undergo a 2nd great depression or b) it's the 1970's all over again. What may actually be happening is a return to the way that the world has been for the last 5000 years (with the exception of the period 1950-1990): the preponderance of productive assets held by a relative handful. In other words, the end of the "true" middle class.
Would anyone here know off hand what the median income is for Socal and how it may have changed?
I suppose median household income wouldn't be more than about $80k for these $400k homes -- meaning about 40% yet to go.
These CA numbers are funny. I'm just wondering how much the new limits in conventional mortgages will change things. Personally, I believe there will a short-term bump, followed quickly by a fall back to reality. (A dead house bounce.)
barely, get real.
Only 15 and 30-yr fixed.
No Interest Only.
No High CLTV - 80% max.
Pricing hits.
Only SFR detached.
Full documentation regardless of automated findings.
And this will do what to "save" the housing market? Seems like all of CA and most other places are basically excluded from an FNM/FRE "bailout". This was nothing more than another scam to buy more time for pigmen to hide losses in the Milky Way and will do nothing to help JSP or any other FB.
Barely,
Didn't see yours. You are a wise man.
This isn't on point but I had to pass it on!
Bush Administration Hides More Data, Shuts Down Website Tracking U.S. Economic Indicators
The U.S. economy is faltering. Family debt is on the rise, benefits are disappearing, the deficit is skyrocketing, and the mortgage crisis has worsened. Conservatives have attempted to deflect attention from the crisis, by blaming the medias negative coverage and insisting the United States is not headed toward a recession, despite what economists are predicting.
The Bush administrations latest move is to simply hide the data. Forbes has awarded EconomicIndicators.gov one of its Best of the Web awards. As Forbes explains, the government site provides an invaluable service to the public for accessing U.S. economic data:
This site is maintained by the Economics and Statistics Administration and combines data collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, like GDP and net imports and exports, and the Census Bureau, like retail sales and durable goods shipments. The site simply links to the relevant departments Web site. This might not seem like a big deal, but doing it yourselfsay, trying to find retail sales data on the Census Bureaus siteis such an exercise in futility that it will convince you why this portal is necessary.
Yet the Bush administration has decided to shut down this site because of budgetary constraints, effective March 1:
Besides, FNM and FRE balance sheets (you know, the ones with the huge smoking holes in them) are in no shape to take on craploads of dicey jumbos.
These CA numbers are funny. I'm just wondering how much the new limits in conventional mortgages will change things. Personally, I believe there will a short-term bump, followed quickly by a fall back to reality.
Well, this is some unconfirmed internet info... I'm desperately searching for confirmation but, allegedly the new Fannie/Freddie Jumbo limits will include:
Only 15 and 30-yr fixed.
No Interest Only.
No High CLTV - 80% max.
Pricing hits.
Only SFR detached.
Full documentation regardless of automated findings.
If true... they could raise the limits to infinity and it won't help CA. Anecdotally, on the westside of LA, where "prices will never fall®"
people are gleefully awaiting the raised limits because then the market will be saved. It's very frustrating here for a potential buyer. 
semi-OT...
CNN: Rust and Sun Belt cities lead '07 foreclosures
Of the 100 largest U.S. cities surveyed by RealtyTrac, 86 reported higher foreclosure rates.
Dig that chart at the bottom...
Tanta: Check your spam folder for a PDF from PACER
Follow up for Meltdown2008.
Due to budgetary constraints, the Economic Indicators service (http://www.economicindicators.gov) will be discontinued effective March 1, 2008.
Economic Indicators.gov
Now we are not going to have access to important economics data. Another sinister move by the administration to hide truth.
"But, but, but,... the Dow, it's up! So everything is OK, right?"
only if you are long.
Mike_in_Fl | Homepage | 02.13.08 - 2:51 pm |
Mike,
Where might this area be in Florida sir?
I am in Charlotte county/Work in Sarasota.
Chris
"crispy&cole writes:
NOTE on these numbers - THEY INCLUDE FORCLOSURES AS SALES. This is distorting tranasction and volumes.
If a home is repoed the sale is included at the loan amount and the sales is counted. Back these out and it is much worse."
DQ does NOT include trustee sales in their numbers. They include homes that have gone back the the beneficiary and have been sold via the MLS or auction (like REDC auction not courthouse auction).
It is arms lengths transactions only, both FSBO and MLS but not houses going back to the trustees. Those are shown in their quarterly foreclosure reports.
The numbers reported today are an accurate represenation of the housing activity on the open market in So. Cal.
The C.A.R. report generated by DQ includes only MLS sales and thus the sales numbers are lower.
More on shutdown of EconomicIndicators.gov.
Bush administration
Just more Bush admin prevarication and criminal behavior that we've seen and suffered with since 2000.
JBR your info comes from the CFO (or was it CEO) of Suntrust mortgage, he sent out a memo saying that was his opinion of how fannie/freddie conforming increase would shake out.
tj & the bear writes:
As long as we have a weakening economy and "global wage arbitrage" there's no way to inflate our way out of the housing bubble trouble.
Never say "never".
More general inflation won't "save" any FBs or resurrect the RE market, but at this point, what other option does the government really have? Defaulting on it's foreign and domestic debts?
Collectively, we face the Twin Towers of future unfunded Medicare & S.S. liabilities, National Debt higher than ever, and consumers hitting their own Peak Debt. What realistic option is left?
Heck, if things get bad enough, they can always just add a zero or two to our bank accounts, Brazil-style. No "wage inflation" necessary.
"BR your info comes from the CFO..."
Thanks... so it's just an opinion. Hope he's right.
If it's true that this data includes Trustee Sales, then it is potentially very misleading on both volume and price. Most lenders will "credit bid" the entire unpaid principal balance at trustee sale, so those prices will reflect the 80 or 90 LTV loan amount (unless of course it was a neg am loan, when the LTV could have been higher).
What's the source for the comment that these sales include Trustee Sales?
mike, if it is true there are many people waiting on the sidelines who can 'afford' 700k+ homes. Wouldn't your realtor be to busy to call?
SUNTRUST EVP memo...
http://blownmortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/newconforminglimits.pdf
Price stout: crispy&cole incorrectly stated the DQ numbers reported today included trustee sales.
Last month's median was 17.8 percent below the $505,000 peak reached last spring and summer. While the steep decline in median sales price does reflect a drop in prices, it also reflects significant shifts in the types of homes selling. Particularly noticeable is a drop-off in sales of more expensive homes financed with "jumbo" mortgages.
The new $729K GSE CLLs just signed into law ought to be changing that in a big hurry. And if it doesn't, Congress will simply keep changing the rules until it does. It's great to be a government, ain't it?
Only 15 and 30-yr fixed becomes "up to 100-yr whatever"
No Interest Only becomes "Interest-Only and neg-ams welcome!"
No High CLTV - 80% max. becomes "200% LTV ok"
Only SFR detached. becomes "spec condos welcome!"
Full documentation becomes "don't worry, we'll fill in those pesky numbers for ya' later"
Bank Reserves are negative $8.7 Billion! The Banks only way out of this is higher rates and fees?
Fed Auctions Another $30B | Banks | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com
Has anyone mentioned California unemployment rate has inched up to 6.1 percent over the last year?
Falling tax revenue, higher unemployment, large budget deficits...good combination!
I suspect a lot of the regulars here underestimate politicians' (and the public's) capacity for ruthlessness, short-sightedness, and recklessness.
Um, inventory is up so what's with the remark that sellers appear to be waiting out the markey?!?!
Its the buyers stupid, not the sellers.
Cal - I disagree.
Darth Toll writes: "barely, get real"
Do you remember last Spring, Mar-May when the builders and lenders had a punishing rally (to the shorts). It was a bullshit driven rally fueled by ridiculous tiny upticks in NAR & BLS numbers. I didn't say the housing market gets saved. Only that we might see an uptick in some numbers. It doesn't take much, and this last report is low enough that it makes for easy comparisons. The bulls will fire off a monster short covering rally as they extrapolate their meager upticks to infinity.
We'll see.
Harm- We all USED to be stupid.
@Anonymous 4:14,
Ignorant? Yes. stupid? I hope not.
Barely,
My guess is Darth Toll misunderstood what you said. I think you are both on the same wave length over the long term, his rant aside.
Harm- Sorry, your right...should have wrote 'stupid'
)
crispy&cole
I realize you disagree. Have anything to back your claim up?
DQNews - DataQuick Real Estate Headlines and Statistics
Says they include arms length transactions only.
I studied a trustee sales list for my county compared to the total sales for the county and got the numbers in the ballpark of DQ (trustee minus total sales is ballpark DQ sales). I am very confident of my assertion.
MAB, my understanding is a refi is recourse in every state.
Cal, that is my understanding on foreclosures - DQ does not count the trustee sale, only the sale of the foreclosure to an unrelated buyer - so I think the DQ numbers reflect actually sales. I disagree with our good friend crispy&cole on this one.
Best to all.
Bush signed the "manual stimulation package" today.
I'm going to get a check for $1200, which i can dab my eyes with as I watch the country go down in flames. What a goddamn joke.
Gary, for $1200 you can get the full monty at the bunny ranch. Wonder why it is called the "manual stimulation package"?
Harm,
Sorry, yes, I should've noted that by saying "inflating" I implicitly did not mean "hyperinflating". If we go there, all bets are off.
cosmodog:
Yes I noticed it last week. 6.1% for CA.
http://www.bls.gov/lau/home.htm#overview
Intra-family transfers are not included, nor are foreclosures until a home is re-sold to a new buyer.
And Cal wins the debate by linking to DQ's own methodology explanation.
I love me some interwebs.
Thx Cal!
barely, I get where you're coming from now, and I agree wholeheartedly. I thought you were talking about the RE market not the equities market.
FNM conforming limits will have zero effect on the RE market, but may have a great effect on financial shorts!
CalculatedRisk writes:
MAB, my understanding is a refi is recourse in every state.
WOW! That really changes the balance of power. It really appears that many underwater borrowers would be better off defaulting.
"I'm going to get a check for $1200, which i can dab my eyes with as I watch the country go down in flames"
The good news is that this rebate check isn't free money and counts against your 2009 return so a lot of folks will be surprised when the 2009 check is a little lite. LOL!! ROFL!
FYI, statewide California median household income for 2006 was $55,000. Still looking for SoCal-specific numbers...
the article says that most of the price decline can be attributed to the slowdown in "jumbo" sales. doesn't that mean that with this new stimulus package, the median price will start going back up, since jumbo loans will be attainable again?
ATTENTION: MINISTRY OF TRUTH!
I am reposting this into this current comment string in the hope of getting more info out of the MofT.
SeattleSun
Ministry of Truth writes
Keep tabs on the recorder's office to see when the notice of sale comes up. From there you probably have 20-30 days until the sale.
Once the bank takes ownership try dealing with them but they will probably just post a 5 day to quit notice.
Note: we are a very mobil operation and could easly move in 5 days if we had to and really wouldn't care as long as the NCAA Basket Ball Tournament is over. Truth is the lease runs to July 31 and we really want out of here on April 1st.
After the 5 days the sherrif will show up and escort you out if you have not already left.
Ministry of Truth
To: Ministry of Truth
First thanks for the response.
The "reconveyance" what ever that means has already happened. Is that considered a "sale" or does this just mean that the bank can now sell it?
"Auction of Sale Pending" seems to be the status of the property. I think this means an auction is pending. Is this what you say to watch for with a 20 to 30 day lead time?
I don't understand what happens at the auction but doesn't the bank just buy it for the outstanding amount on the mortagage which is $411,650?
In the 600 unit complex I am in I believe there are at least 50 units in foreclousre.
Here is the 600 unit complex in LV
http://www.meridianprivatereside...residences.com/
Note: our lease says we should get 60 days notice. Is that meaningless especially if we stopped paying the rent? I would trade a few months free rent for loss of a 60 day notice clause.
TIA
SeattleSun | 02.13.08 - 12:47 pm | #
Mine is going into a forex account- just seems poetic >; )
My mom is about to crack finally. Last night she asked 'are you sure you're never going to move back down here?' My answer was 'I'm sure; I'd rather have rectal cancer then go back to OC'.
So madre is now looking at selling the monster in HB and coming up here. All the other relatives who owned in NB and Tustin Hills have already fled.
Some 2005 data:
-- In California, the median household income was $53,629 in 2005. And five California cities were among the 10 wealthiest nationwide: San Jose's median household income was $70,560, San Francisco's $57,496, San Diego's $55,637, Anaheim's $52,158 and Riverside's $50,416.
Cobradriver -- This is in the greater West Palm Beach area. Stats available at:
IPRE Real Estate Trends
Does the Sac Bee database use DQ or MLS data? I can't remember anymore.
doesn't that mean that with this new stimulus package, the median price will start going back up, since jumbo loans will be attainable again?
Um, no. The problem lies in the word "attainable". The people that were buying before cannot buy now, because they couldn't afford the homes without those 100%, stated income, interest only (or negative amortizing) loans. For those with good credit, down payments and sufficient income, well, jumbos have been and will continue to be available -- although the rates on them may come down a tiny bit.
IOW, won't make any difference whatsoever.
Cal -
I stand corrected. I spent some time trying to find where I read that and could not find it.
Thanks for keep the facts straight.
What did the under-water homeowner say when he was asked how it's going? It's going swimmingly!
jackk writes:
the article says that most of the price decline can be attributed to the slowdown in "jumbo" sales. doesn't that mean that with this new stimulus package, the median price will start going back up, since jumbo loans will be attainable again?
Not until Congress changes the type of loans the GSEs can purchase. If/when they change the rules allowing GSEs to buy I/O, neg-ams, option-ARMs, NINJAs and other wonderful new "affordability" loan products, then, yes, it could act as a government "put" under prices.
Personally, I'm hoping for a Patriot Act II that reclassifies savers/renters as economic terrorits and raises payroll taxes to 90% for anyone who refuses to buy a McMansion with an option-ARM. Considering recent legislation and proposals on the table, I wouldn't rule it out.
-terrorits
+terrorists
U.S. States' Credit Rating Outlook Turns Negative, Moody's Says...
U.S. States' Credit Rating Outlook Turns Negative, Moody's Says - Bloomberg.com
OT- I just finished listening to Gretchen Morgenstern of the NY Times on "Fresh Air w/ Terry Gross" on NPR (podcast is probably available at their website) Nothing you haven't read here, but a sign of the times- even a radio program heavily into the Arts is talking about the economy, banks, credit, and Buffett!
Crispy and all,
There are places where they use DQ data and another data engine (On Board LLC) such as on the Sac Bee Sales data page. The confusion is when you have 2 different source that appear to be the same.
I and many others have caught the TDs going back to bank being listed as sales on that engine. When you have such a small amount of volume like my local market, those few errors do corrupt the data. The question has always been, are these also part of the DQ dataset or that data engine pulling from somewhere else?
And I couldn't give you an estimate on how frequently this occurs since I've only run into these TD 'sales' when looking in my search area and have never tried to quantify the errors.
HARM, it's "terrists".
MoT, I made that part up. That's my take on the so-called stimulus package . . . I think my moniker is more apt.
Thanks D Jane.
Well I don't know that those TDs aren't in the DQ data either. I know what DQ says but .......
what types of loans will be accepted under this raised conforming limit? will they accept IOs, what will the min CLTV be, etc? when will that be decided and who will decide it - OFHEO, Fannie, the Congress? also who gets to decide if the new 700k jumbos will be sold with other TBAs (in which case everyone's mortgage rates will go up), or will they be sold as a group (in which case the interest rates on them might end up being the same as before)?
Housing Doom ran a story on this a year ago or so, I just cant find it.
Is it going to mess up the goverment's plans if I use my rebate to pay estimated taxes for 2008?
Mike_in_Fl | Homepage | 02.13.08 - 4:56 pm |
MY GOD !! You kicked our ass over here. We are at about 10k inventory with roughly 250 sales. This includes lots because I really don't feel like separating them. The numbers looked decent in Nov.(snowbirds) and lately they tanked.
I am trying to figure out roughly how much hidden inventory is around here.
I went down a street today that had 4 for sale signs,1 fsbo and it looks like 9-11 empty but not yet REO homes...
Chris
HERE IS THE LINK:
Dataquick Appears to Overstate California Sales - Housing Doom
C&C,
Glad I could help.
Deflationary Jane,
If you wanted to prove DQ wrong, you could purchase their sales data set (after all they are in the business of selling this data) for a month and find a trustee sale shown in their data.
cal-
Can you read my housing doom link? There seems to be some issues on this.
thanks
Quote from housing doom story:
"Thanks SD for pointing this one out to us. As foreclosure rates rise in CA, this issue will increasingly affect sales and pricing numbers"
The author of that blog - twist - is very respected for here accuracy and analysis.
SeattleSun, you should be able to find out the sales date once it is set, either by the owner getting a notice, public records and I think it is also advertised in the newspaper.
A notice of foreclosure sale must be made within 21 days of the date of the sale and at a time, place and manner as stated in the notice of default. Sale must take place in the same manner as an execution sale would occur in a judicial foreclosure.
If it is easy to move you could just wait until the 5 days to quite notice is posted on your door.
C&C,
Was just reading it. It sounds like the reporting function for that paper is hitting the total sales ("Prospect Finder Farm Services" must just show all sales) but the report generated monthly by DQ news follows their methodology of removing non-arms length transactions from the total sales.
Again, I checked the numbers for myself for 1 month in Ventura. Looking off the raw sales data I have and a Trustee list for one month and the number was close to what was reported.
I just think the person SD on housingdoom was taking one thing (the total sales reported by the record searchlight from Dataquick) and applying to another (the report generated monthly by Dataquick) and assuming he/she was correct in his/her accusation.
SeattleSun,
you should negotiate with the bank for a move out payment.
Maybe $800 to cover your costs;-}
Of course, I would not send another dime to the former owner. Hey, he is going to let you have to move, why should he get anything from you?
Read the mail addressed to occupant closely, they won't have your name.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I bet that the rave partying crowd is going to catch on to abandoned property craze and begin tracking foreclosures to schedule parties. Hey, if the renter has left the door open in response to the posted notice, they will move in for five days, right?
I can hardly wait to say:
Whocoudanode?
Someday this war's gonna end...
JBR and/or Darth Toll:
Is the SFR limit on new conformings you posted verified anywhere or just rumor? Read over the SunTrust doc and it didn't mention that.
This ought to help those median numbers.
If by help, one means kicking a guy when he's down.
Prices Offered Up to 50% Off During D.R. Horton's 'UnAuction' Sale - February 16 and 23 Only!
Cheers,
Mike, what part of South Florida are you at? I'm in Miami, Hialeah.
MAB--in Florida all mtg loans have the possibility of a deficiency judgment, in fact, it is a matter of right, but lenders--up to now--never, ever ask for them.
And by kicking a guy when he's down, I mean shooting his entire family and then running them over with a steamroller.
Up to 50% off! That beats the pants off of Hovnanian's crappy little sale last fall.
Crispy - I think the lesson here is don't believe everything you read, be it on a blog or in a newspaper.
DQ's methodology explanation, linked by Cal, is crystal clear.
I don't see how a data vendor's methodology explanation vs. an anonymous blogger is basis for concluding there's an actual dispute here.
Crispy, more importantly, you've got to get over to that DR Horton sale and give us a full report.
Gary - LOL!
Price stout - I dont disagree with DQ's explanation. I agree with Cal 100% - he is right. My point is I don't think they follow this methodology 100% of the time.
I dont see anywhere that the data set published by the record searchlight doesnt includge foreclosures either. I found a similiar data set on Ventura County Star (same owner as record searchlight I think) and the numbers are "weird" and I have no idea what they represent. The data I looked at included new home sales and foreclosuers but there are homes I know that closed that arent shown (the numbers for a particular month seem low). Basically, until you find out the methodology of the data you are looking at, dont assume it applies to another set of data.
Don't laugh, but I know someone going to DR Horton's "sale" looking for a condo in the Palm Desert area.
On the report CR cited and linked, the more important language to me is buried:
"The median price paid for a home financed with a conforming loan was $380,000 in January, down 5.0 percent from $400,000 a year ago, and down 7.3 percent from the $410,000 peak reached in March and April of 2007."
I understand "a 17.8% drop" makes a much better news story, but that number only makes sense if one assumes absolutely no change in the market for jumbo loans which of course has changed dramatically since last summer.
Apples to apples.
Fitch-2-13-08-
"Respondents voiced concern over the threat to credit markets from diminished liquidity. In a sharp reversal from prior surveys, respondents stressed a 'decline in banks and other investors' willingness to lend as the greatest risk currently posed to the leveraged loan market. 'The lack of investor demand in this market will make it hard for high risk borrowers to get fresh capital or refinance existing obligations in 2008,' said Senior Director William May."
Ministry of Truth writes:
SeattleSun, you should be able to find out the sales date once it is set, either by the owner getting a notice, public records and I think it is also advertised in the newspaper.
A notice of foreclosure sale must be made within 21 days of the date of the sale and at a time, place and manner as stated in the notice of default. Sale must take place in the same manner as an execution sale would occur in a judicial foreclosure.
If it is easy to move you could just wait until the 5 days to quite notice is posted on your door.
Ministry of Truth | 02.13.08 - 5:43 pm | #
To: Ministry of Truth
Thanks again.
A question on the other side of the coin.
But first I note by your "bunny ranch" comment that you are a Las Vegas or NV guy? The last time I drove HWY 95 (aka the HWY of Love)from LV to Reno the bunny ranch was closed. Another piece of "distressed real estate?"
Now for the question.
Q. Would like to buy a distressed luxary condo LV but can't quit figure out how to locate the available list.
Is there a web site that is actually useful?
Do I have to go to the banks for their REO lists?
How do I get started on this?
TIA
SeattleSu
AllenM writes:
SeattleSun,
you should negotiate with the bank for a move out payment.
Maybe $800 to cover your costs;-}
Yes that thought was rattling around in my head. I was only looking to maybe get a few weeks/months of free rent.
All the owners mail comes to this address as I believe it was probably an "owner occupied" deal.
I like your "Someday this war will end". I used to think that almost every day I woke up in S.E.A. And sure enought one day it did.
Ministry of Truth writes:
SeattleSun, you should be able to find out the sales date once it is set, either by the owner getting a notice, public records and I think it is also advertised in the newspaper.
A notice of foreclosure sale must be made within 21 days of the date of the sale and at a time, place and manner as stated in the notice of default. Sale must take place in the same manner as an execution sale would occur in a judicial foreclosure.
If it is easy to move you could just wait until the 5 days to quite notice is posted on your door.
Ministry of Truth | 02.13.08 - 5:43 pm | #
Thanks again for the info.
Nerds on this site should understand that although I have a BS Aerospace and MBA both cum lauda and my math skills could put a cruise missle thru your bedroom window tonight I have no idea what these terms mean:
1) notice of foreclosure sale
2) an execution sale
3) a judicial foreclosure
4) quite notice
Is there a primer on the voculbary used on this site?
While I have someone attention is NV a "non recourse" state? I actually know what that means!
TIA
SeattleSu
SeattleSun:
I think I can help with the terms (but I don't know whether NV is a recourse state).
1) notice of foreclosure sale: a notice that is recorded and usually published prior to a foreclosure sale (the timing of the notice varies by state - in California I believe it has to be recorded and published at least 21 days before the foreclosure auction).
2) an execution sale: not typically used here in California in relation to RE (usually it would be a sale of a debtor's personal property to satisfy a judgment); however, it could refer to a foreclosure sale.
3) a judicial foreclosure: depending on the state, there may be non-judicial foreclosure and judicial foreclosure. Non-judicial foreclosure is done by way of a trustee sale/auction. Judicial foreclosure requires that the lender file a complaint with the court to foreclose on the loan and go through the entire lawsuit through trial. Typically only used when required as it is much longer (a year would be typical) and more expensive than non-judicial foreclosure. In California, it is required in order to get a deficiency judgment (assuming the loan is recourse in the first place).
4) quite notice: I think you mean a notice to quit. This is a notice given to a tenant or occupant of property by the owner telling the occupant that they must leave (quit) the property (e.g., because the lease term has expired or the lease was wiped out by foreclosure). It's usually required as a pre-requisite to filing an eviction lawsuit.
Hope that helps.
Nerds on this site should understand that although I have a BS Aerospace and MBA both cum lauda and my math skills could put a cruise missle thru your bedroom window tonight
Apparently the cum laude accolades weren't in the Latin arts. Nerds don't usually get marked off for "speling" except when bragging.
Regarding the methodology used by DQ,I believe it has changed.There was a lot of discussion and outrage about this,and I believe it was the Marin Real Estate Bubble,or Sacramento Landing that had a quote from DQ acknowledging that they did in fact include foreclosures as sales because it was a reconveyance.This would have been in late 2006 or early 2007.Sonoma housing bubble also covered this in some detail,and anyone patient enough to search the archives should be able to find the quote.
SeattleSun.... try this one...
Real estate terms listed in online real estate dictionary.
BTW- wish I had math skills like that. My mother-in-law would be ash!
I second stdfs recommendation that the gretchen morgenson interview by terry gross on npr is worth listening to.
it is interesting to hear her judgments about outcomes...and hear an msm personality say it on a mass media outlet.
she comes out against the big CEOs drawing huge pay offs as they leave the sinking ship.
raises the question about sovereign funds taking over troubled banks.
also talks about FDIC insurance and bank failures.
estimates that the economic fallout from the SIVs and loans will take years to resolve.
worth the listen because terry gross is a good interviewer.
Measuring the Mortgage-Crisis Fallout : NPR
Mike, those are scary, scary numbers in Florida. Poor folks, there.
The gubermint better hurry up and start handing out toxic loans backed by the taxpayer or housing might become affordable again! The horror!
Maybe larger rebate checks would help, or instead of checks, mailing out 0% down, interest-only, 150% financing loans for McMansions. It could be like a lotto, where you buy tickets to "win" huge loans on unaffordable houses!
I and many others have caught the TDs going back to bank being listed as sales on that engine.
rc helicopter
Tactical Flashlights
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