Katrina reached major status this morning and continued intensification is forecast. She is already down to 940mb with improving organization and a strongly favorable environment for the next 48 hours.
While a significant disruption to production and refining in the Gulf is guaranteed, it remains to be seen whether this will be short term problem due to weather or whether storm damage will produced a longer term effect.
Katrina is located within an atmospheric environment that seemingly cannot get much more conducive for strengthening... primarily due to a very large upper-level anticyclone over the entire Gulf of Mexico. Not surprisingly... upper-level outflow from the hurricane continues to become more established. This weak wind shear environment is forecast by the dynamical models to persist for about the next three days until an upper-level trough moves into Texas from the west. Therefore shear could begin to increase over the hurricane near the time it makes landfall on the northern Gulf Coast... but it seems that will be too late to prevent Katrina from maintaining major hurricane status at landfall.
From... Forcaster Knabb
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 16 - Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 27, 2005
On a tangent note - look at the projected storm track... just east of New Orleans. That could be one expensive storm if it follows that track. But if it moves just a little farther west... it could be a complete disaster.
My BIL grew up in NO and now lives in the north... But he still follows storms and has told me many times that a storm track with an eye wall just west of the city could completely destroy New Orleans.
The city is something like 6 ft UNDER sea level and requires huge pumps to continuously pump out the water that seeps under the levees. If a huge storm came through and (1) knocked out the pumps and (2) pushed Lake Poncatrain over the levees into the city it would nevr get pumped back out... The 'ideal track' of such a storm is to have eyewall slightly west of the city's eastern levees... pushing the storm surge into the city.
An added 'bonus' might be rains that come so fast that the river over runs the Atchafalaya diversion and the Mississippi River switches channels - to the Atchefalaya which entes the Gulf a couple hundred miles west of the current mouth. Read about the levee system HERE... If that happens they probably never get Big Muddy back in the 'original' channel because it is 'higher' than than the Atchefalaya Basin... Shipping in and out of the Mississipps would be disrupted for YEARS and maybe longer.
It would be a double blow to New Orleans and probably mean humans 'abandon' the city as the cost to reclaim would exceed the value many times over... It would in effect become America's first great 'ruin'.
Obviously this is a long shot but if it happened the cost (to locals & international insurers a like) would be FAR greater than oil price disturbances. It would be a disaster on a par with the eventual 'Big One' on the West Coast.
I DO NOT think this is AT ALL likely this time... but it will happen someday, just a matter of time. And it becomes even more likely as global warming drives up the ocean levels and the channel of the Mississippi as we know it continues to rise vis-a-vis t
BTW - he is already advising residents in NO to evacuate even if the emergency mgmt people say it is too early to panic... the storm is expected to make landfall somewhere in 72 hrs and it takes AT LEAST 72 hrs to evacuate NO...
dryfly: While disaster is always a possibility, don't let dark imagination get the better of you. As they say, prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. No offense though, please.
cm - I'm not tha 'dark' but hurricanes are a big deal.
And while I said I don't think the worst will happen... not this time... it WILL HAPPEN. There is no escaping these things when the exposure is there it is just a matter of continuing to roll the dice. There is nothing we as 'mortals' can do about it.
But that is why I'm not all hung up on the wealth - if you lose it all - EVERYTHING - did you really lose much? Not really... it is family & friends that really matter.
My whole point is that the disruption of a this storm as far as gasoline prices could be minor compared to what could happen... if lady luck abandons them and tracks 'worst case'. People down there are WELL AWARE or that risk.
I lived in Alabama when Camille hit... we were inland & spared a lot of damage (flooding only... 27 inches of rain spread over a little more than a day and a half)... but we had close friends in Pascagoula MS near where the eyewall landed. There wasn't a piece of their home that survived nor a tree in their yard that wasn't snapped off at the base... they had pines two feet in diameter all over their yard prior to the storm. Wind gages near by in Pass Christian broke at something like 165 mph... storm surges as high as 30 feet.
But our friends all survived and were able to rebuild. No harm no foul. Others weren't so lucky.
BTW - I know those folks are heading north already even ahead of the evacuations... go through a storm like Camille and you don't mess around when Cat 3-4 storms (that could go Cat 5) are out there.
As I understand it, in addition to the slightly west of NO track, a direct south approach is equally bad as it will pump storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain on approach with SE winds and then push that surge into the city with NNW winds as the eye pulls away. And once the water is in, it will take a long time to pump it out of an urban bowl that is below sea level.
CM is right that this is a low probability event, as it requires an intense hurricane on a particular track, but Katrina may oblige unfortunately. Should she make a strike on New Orleans as a strong Cat 3 or stronger, Dryfly is right that gas will be not be the most major concern. Loss of life would probably be very considerable, more than we are accustomed to thinking about in this country. The property damage would be considerable too. But the national impact would be the disruption of the Port of New Orleans and shipping on the Mississippi. It would be an awful tragedy for New Orleans, but the economic impact would not be restricted to the Gulf Coast.
Let's hope Katrina gets sheared before she landfalls, where ever that may be!
spencer, the period comparison chart is in Barrels (a physical quantity) ... not dollars. Sorry for any confusion. I linked the DOE spreadsheet that I used.
All: Katrina is looking pretty bad. For this post I was interested in its impact on gasoline / oil supplies, but obviously the people in its path are a far larger concern. I wish them the best.
My sister has property in NOLA... a shotgun house about as low as you could get... she and my BIL watch these things like a hawk... every storm in the GOM... I'm sure he is glued to this one.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
And they didn't even mention the possibility of the levees failing... continued:
I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.
I presume that is some physical or real measure, not a current price measure.
Katrina reached major status this morning and continued intensification is forecast. She is already down to 940mb with improving organization and a strongly favorable environment for the next 48 hours.
While a significant disruption to production and refining in the Gulf is guaranteed, it remains to be seen whether this will be short term problem due to weather or whether storm damage will produced a longer term effect.
Katrina is located within an atmospheric environment that seemingly cannot get much more conducive for strengthening... primarily due to a very large upper-level anticyclone over the entire Gulf of Mexico. Not surprisingly... upper-level outflow from the hurricane continues to become more established. This weak wind shear environment is forecast by the dynamical models to persist for about the next three days until an upper-level trough moves into Texas from the west. Therefore shear could begin to increase over the hurricane near the time it makes landfall on the northern Gulf Coast... but it seems that will be too late to prevent Katrina from maintaining major hurricane status at landfall.
From... Forcaster Knabb
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 16 - Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 27, 2005
On a tangent note - look at the projected storm track... just east of New Orleans. That could be one expensive storm if it follows that track. But if it moves just a little farther west... it could be a complete disaster.
My BIL grew up in NO and now lives in the north... But he still follows storms and has told me many times that a storm track with an eye wall just west of the city could completely destroy New Orleans.
The city is something like 6 ft UNDER sea level and requires huge pumps to continuously pump out the water that seeps under the levees. If a huge storm came through and (1) knocked out the pumps and (2) pushed Lake Poncatrain over the levees into the city it would nevr get pumped back out... The 'ideal track' of such a storm is to have eyewall slightly west of the city's eastern levees... pushing the storm surge into the city.
An added 'bonus' might be rains that come so fast that the river over runs the Atchafalaya diversion and the Mississippi River switches channels - to the Atchefalaya which entes the Gulf a couple hundred miles west of the current mouth. Read about the levee system HERE... If that happens they probably never get Big Muddy back in the 'original' channel because it is 'higher' than than the Atchefalaya Basin... Shipping in and out of the Mississipps would be disrupted for YEARS and maybe longer.
It would be a double blow to New Orleans and probably mean humans 'abandon' the city as the cost to reclaim would exceed the value many times over... It would in effect become America's first great 'ruin'.
Obviously this is a long shot but if it happened the cost (to locals & international insurers a like) would be FAR greater than oil price disturbances. It would be a disaster on a par with the eventual 'Big One' on the West Coast.
I DO NOT think this is AT ALL likely this time... but it will happen someday, just a matter of time. And it becomes even more likely as global warming drives up the ocean levels and the channel of the Mississippi as we know it continues to rise vis-a-vis t
... vis-a-vis the Atchefalaya.
Here's a very good weather site with a 'Hurricane Blog' it runs during these storms...
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
BTW - he is already advising residents in NO to evacuate even if the emergency mgmt people say it is too early to panic... the storm is expected to make landfall somewhere in 72 hrs and it takes AT LEAST 72 hrs to evacuate NO...
Anon was me...
dryfly: While disaster is always a possibility, don't let dark imagination get the better of you. As they say, prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. No offense though, please.
cm - I'm not tha 'dark' but hurricanes are a big deal.
And while I said I don't think the worst will happen... not this time... it WILL HAPPEN. There is no escaping these things when the exposure is there it is just a matter of continuing to roll the dice. There is nothing we as 'mortals' can do about it.
But that is why I'm not all hung up on the wealth - if you lose it all - EVERYTHING - did you really lose much? Not really... it is family & friends that really matter.
My whole point is that the disruption of a this storm as far as gasoline prices could be minor compared to what could happen... if lady luck abandons them and tracks 'worst case'. People down there are WELL AWARE or that risk.
I lived in Alabama when Camille hit... we were inland & spared a lot of damage (flooding only... 27 inches of rain spread over a little more than a day and a half)... but we had close friends in Pascagoula MS near where the eyewall landed. There wasn't a piece of their home that survived nor a tree in their yard that wasn't snapped off at the base... they had pines two feet in diameter all over their yard prior to the storm. Wind gages near by in Pass Christian broke at something like 165 mph... storm surges as high as 30 feet.
But our friends all survived and were able to rebuild. No harm no foul. Others weren't so lucky.
BTW - I know those folks are heading north already even ahead of the evacuations... go through a storm like Camille and you don't mess around when Cat 3-4 storms (that could go Cat 5) are out there.
And cm... you think I'm dark?
Check this dude... storm junkie...
I wonder if that's my brother-in-law
As I understand it, in addition to the slightly west of NO track, a direct south approach is equally bad as it will pump storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain on approach with SE winds and then push that surge into the city with NNW winds as the eye pulls away. And once the water is in, it will take a long time to pump it out of an urban bowl that is below sea level.
CM is right that this is a low probability event, as it requires an intense hurricane on a particular track, but Katrina may oblige unfortunately. Should she make a strike on New Orleans as a strong Cat 3 or stronger, Dryfly is right that gas will be not be the most major concern. Loss of life would probably be very considerable, more than we are accustomed to thinking about in this country. The property damage would be considerable too. But the national impact would be the disruption of the Port of New Orleans and shipping on the Mississippi. It would be an awful tragedy for New Orleans, but the economic impact would not be restricted to the Gulf Coast.
Let's hope Katrina gets sheared before she landfalls, where ever that may be!
Let's hope Katrina gets sheared before she landfalls, where ever that may be!
Amen to that.
spencer, the period comparison chart is in Barrels (a physical quantity) ... not dollars. Sorry for any confusion. I linked the DOE spreadsheet that I used.
All: Katrina is looking pretty bad. For this post I was interested in its impact on gasoline / oil supplies, but obviously the people in its path are a far larger concern. I wish them the best.
and df says that I am depressing....
and df says that I am depressing....
You are depressing... that's why we luv ya!
Here are a couple of interesting links... discussing how 'vulnerable' NO is to a major storm
Flood Map
And...
Washing Away
My sister has property in NOLA... a shotgun house about as low as you could get... she and my BIL watch these things like a hawk... every storm in the GOM... I'm sure he is glued to this one.
A google on the 1927 flood
The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 - Google Search
dryfly: Looks like you are right. New Orleans being evacuated.
From the NWS at NOLA:
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
And they didn't even mention the possibility of the levees failing... continued:
From weather underground.com:
I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.
LINK
If you pray - pray for these people.
The link:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=81&tstamp=200508&allcomments=1">wunderground.com