I guess it is time to start sending in offers to pay in full with a sufficient discount on my investment property second;-}

Someday this war's gonna end...

Why trust them at all? A friend got in deeper and deeper trying to 'WORK' it out with Saxon- a solution that ultimately forced loss of ownership of the property.

Sharks getting ignored. Gee, now they need the poor sucker they have abused for years.

Good Luck Wall Street- you are reaping what you have sown.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Many borrowers have been pursued before by aggressive debt collectors who encouraged them to use their retirement accounts, borrow from family members or raid their child's college fund to catch up on their bills, said Michael Shea, executive director of Acorn Housing, a counseling agency. "They badger you until [you] don't want to talk to the servicer again," he said. "By then, [you] don't even want to answer the phone."

Even though lenders said they were reaching out, it remains difficult to work out deals, said Mosi Harrington, executive director of Housing Initiative Partnership in Prince George's County. "We have cases that we have tried for two months to get paperwork to the right department," she said. "They put you on hold for half an hour, and the phone clicks off."

'nuff said.

I am not sacrificing my retirement account to feed these vampires, either.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Is 'this' war between AllenM and AllenM?

I know the war is going to end soon. Nearly every daily in our state had a big feature article by local realtors declaring that this is the time to buy. Desperate times.

Anecdotal evidence in South Florida is that Countrywide doesn't work with people at all. They want to pretend they are helping, but no reality.

But why? What they are doing now doesn't work. Looks like they are just trying to string things along from month to month. To merger with B of A?

But most other lenders are acting in the same way.

Wedding invitations? This would only make me angrier, as I threw the worthless piece of paper in the garbage.

Fine writing.

Why would duplicitous tactics of the lenders come as a surprise? It seems to me that's the behavior that got us here in the first place.

I'd hide from them too.

I've never trusted those phone call wedding invitations. I cannot say the same thing for winning contests. I show up to get my winnings, and the cops put me in jail every time. I'll I wanted was my prize. When will I learn?

How about they send notices disguised as funeral invitations? I always open those if only to check that it's not mine.

It seems to me that Mish and CR/Tanta are competing/copying eachother more and more ? Is it me or what ? what's going on ?

I've been hearing that some angry clients are not only waiting for the foreclosure to take place (while pocketing everything they can), but before the padlock gets put on the door, they are trashing the house.

Concrete is being poured down the pipes, electrical wires cut throughout the house, kitchems and bathrooms being taken apart and sold as scrap for extra money. Not only is the foreclosure process going to cost the lenders $50,000. They won't be able to sell the house "as is" because the new financing company won't accept that run down condition at closing. New buyers won't even get insurance on it.

That means that the lenders may have to "fix" the property so they can sell it. If enough people get angry enough to do this, it will bring the banks to their knees.

Are we talking about IndyMac?

what we're really seeing is a breakdown of society; rules/contracts no longer apply. all bred by a lack of trust in the banking system. heaven help us.

i am locked and ready.

It seems to me that Mish and CR/Tanta are competing/copying eachother more and more ?

Mish is allowed to read the same newspaper we read.

IF the lenders are genuinely interested in making deals at this point, it seems a trusted middleperson is needed. Unfortunately, there is no obvious candidate for the job.

BRAVO BRAVO BRAVO.
Great piece of journalism. You showed some anger there. We are all angry. Maybe 1 800 flowers will get some business out of the mortgage companies if the wedding invites dont work.

Keep up the great writing

Do debt collectors really behave aggressively?

That gets me bothered if they do....

Once upon a time I worked in a small shop servicing 10K or so loans. We took pride in customer service, didn't use a dialer, didn't use a VRU, provided little things like payment histories and document copies for free. But servicing was a commodity and, thus, the company and portfolio was consumed by a larger entity. Much to the dismay of the customer.

But what are the alternatives? I wonder, would borrowers be willing to pay a premium to have the servicing of their loan be local? Or not subject to transfer? Is there a market for "niche" servicing?

Tanta,

Gretchen M was on NPR there other day explaining what was happening in the industry... I thought of you and chuckled.... Smile

what we're really seeing is a breakdown of society

I'm trying to suggest that the so-called "breakdown of society" has its roots in the way this industry is structured.

For decades, the mortgage servicing industry has been sending one consistent message to borrowers: we don't really give a shit. Sure, it was dressed up a little ("For all other inquiries, press zero" and wait on hold for three hours) but that's what it worked out to.

A lot of people made a lot of money on that business model. Now they're going to give a lot of it back. The difference here is that the end-game is starting to resemble classic farce. (Hiring legions of non-profit workers to walk neighborhoods in DC? Given the popularity of "faith-based initiatives," I'm only surprised they didn't hire Jehovah's Witnesses. "Here's a Watchtower, and oh, have you called your mortgage servicer lately? They're ready to make a deal with you now.")

I've recently inherited three timeshare properties I feel the same way about. I didn't want them but had to take them just to get JP Morgan to close the damned estate after FOUR YEARS. I'm ready to just walk away from them but really don't want to damage my credit. This scam market has also been going on for far too long now.

That post will make me smile for a couple of weeks.

"Here's a Watchtower, and oh, have you called your mortgage servicer lately? They're ready to make a deal with you now."

Salvation and a deal with the Devil all in one visit? Praise be we are saved!

What is needed is a cheap consumer voicemail system programmed to deal with debt collectors.

For mortage related problems press 1.
For auto loans press 2.
For credit cards in arrears press 3.

All arranged to go in a nice infinate loop, around and around. Just have a separate cell phone for people you actually want to talk to.

I read on someone's blog the other day a large, unnamed lender wouldn't do subordinations any more, unless they could do the first.

Either the lenders don't fully appreciate what's going on or their employees don't.

It's going to be a difficult learning experience all the way around.

Nothing surprising, I look at the caller ID before I answer - Dial America gets ignored. If I pickup and there is no immediate response to my "Hello?" I hang up. If you want to talk to me the CallerID better say the name of a company I deal with and it better not be a robo call.

Called my servicer yesterday to ask a question about taxes and escrow. Select 1 for your balance, 2 for your payoff amount, 3 for your next payment, 4 for something else. I selected 4 and was connected to the workout department! She was polite and connected me to the correct place but it's a sign of the times I guess Smile

Wedding Invitations? "'til debt do us part".I can,and have give an hour long presentation on how to design envelopes and letter for a maximum response.A little problem arises when trying to establish trust with a frightened customer by sending them something like a fake wedding invitation...of course corporate folk who start their day with 2 xanax and a big bowl of scumbaggios don't understand this well.

Once upon a time I worked in a small shop servicing 10K or so loans.

Same here. Regional bank, $6 billion portfolio, big enough to be able to afford better computers, small enough to be allergic to dialers and phone menus.

The subprime servicers have already been claiming for a year that they can't get by on a mere 50 bps servicing fee, and that was before the horrors of Q407 got underway. Just exactly how much more would borrowers need pay to get decent servicing, if they're going to have to pay significantly north of 50 bps to get wretched servicing? I no longer understand the math involved. Maybe if we didn't pay people like Angelo Mozilo multi-million dollar annual pay packages plus bonus, we could afford people instead of robots in the collections department.

So at some level, I suspect that people would pay another 12.5 bps for better, more consumer-friendly servicing. On the other hand I'm not sure why they should have to.

From the linked article:

Fannie Mae is offering foreclosure lawyers up to $600 to help find solutions for these homeowners.

Is $600 really enough of an incentive for a lawyer to think up a solution for reaching out to a potentially defaulting homeowner?

So.. are they putting the odds of default, for this vaguely referenced group, at less than 2%? ($50,000*.012 = $600)

Reading news just confuses me.. Sad

"A lot of people made a lot of money on that business model. Now they're going to give a lot of it back."

well a lot will but most won't. they've grabbed their fees and won't give them back. i have several realtor and broker friends who act like everyone else in the industry; shocked and amazed that those borrowers and lenders would exploit the system as such.

i also think that the while the banks have certainly lost a good deal of money most of it will be socialized and the individual executives at fault will get off scott free. OTOH, the defaulting borrowers will suffer bad credit for years and probably will have assets dispossessed.

Congratulations Tanta, this post is priceless.

Tanta you are awesome and the truth you tell is fire.

if you and CR need some muscle to shield you from the mortgage evil doers know that there is a cadre of support here and more than a few will come to your aid.

My wife and i own our place (sweat equity and savings etc) and experienced first hand the dizzying onslaught of lender-hucksters as they tried to lure us into debt to pay for plasma TVs and kids education.

finally, one day, for the thrill of it i pretended to go along. I feigned interest and took a ride as i was handed from level to level of sales staff who "manipulated" me into deeper and darker deals over several days.

I READ EVERY CONTRACT I SIGN.

when we got near the end i confronted a loan officer type with the deception and lies as evidenced by the difference between what was written and what they said. I also threw a little CR and Roubini speak into the conversation...knowing your call on the future was way more accurate than theirs.

the response was explosive an they actually threatened me, over the phone, with litigation as i backed out of the deal.

Thanks to you, CR, Roubini, Noland, econbrowser, Thoma and DeLong i changed jobs, got control of my retirement funds which were heavily in repos, commercial paper and CDOs and now all is in ncua and fdic insured CDs, cash and PMs and IBonds.

i dont know the future, but i sleep well at night.

i owe you guys, and tell everyone who will listen to visit your site and be conservative in their investments.

Thanks...and call your loyal readers if you need us.those who speak the truth to power are often excoriated by the power brokers.

Did anyone see this?

Britain nationalizes mortgage lender Northern Rock

Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

Hoocoodanode visits my neck of the woods:

Declining values, defaults, foreclosures catch many local residents by surprise
[Bailey, aged74] and his wife, from whom he is now separated, had refinanced their Camarillo Springs home four times over six years as its value steadily climbed.
...
But when they tried to take out money again in early 2007, they discovered...

[and of course my reply on my blog.]

Tanta is consistently extraordinary. Excellence is manifest in her analysis and prose on a daily basis. What a pleasure to read her posts.

Okay, servicers and related lenders all suck and have lousy business plans. They can't deal with the current escalating problems in the housing market.

Where is the solution? Does Acorn need to expand 1000% in order to reach people? Do lawyers need to come up with some sort of prepackaged modification plan for borrowers at $600 per?

Borrowers exercising their put options and sticking lenders with large losses will only compound the problem. It just a variant on Mutually Assured Destruction.

I may have nothing but contempt for Bush, Paulson, etc., but I do believe we need to be looking for a solution that minimizes the economic fallout.

Northern Rock is the CDO/Monoline mess writ small.

Anybody who knows their game theory want to explain?

The police use the same tactics with other types of criminals with outstanding warrants. Free flat screen's. Lottery winnings.
Works like a charm, they are addicted to free cheese.

If they are going to walk from purchases fine, STFU and walk already, but the reality is that most have already extracted funds from the property under false representations, and that is theft.
This sub group should be hunted, how can a serious business blog encourage theft?

Goose meet gander? sure, prosecute both lenders and borrowers to the full extent of the law and bury them.

Why mother, what a deep voice you have! And what big hands you have! And what big TEETH you have!

Wait a minute - you're not my mother! You're my mortgage servicer!

Who knew this was non-fiction?

In eight years of popular outrage at the most outrageous time of my life, this is the most eloquent polemic I have read.

This is one for posterity.

Is 'this' war between AllenM and AllenM?

No, he's talking about the war in Iraq that too many of us have all but forgotten.

Tanta, a tour-de-force! Hopefully someone in the MSM will see this, and ask you to edit it for its next adaptation as a widely-read op-ed piece.

Britain nationalizes mortgage lender Northern Rock

Is this the UK equivalent of OTS/FDIC taking down a bank ?

Ray

DCRogers writes:
Tanta, a tour-de-force! Hopefully someone in the MSM will see this, and ask you to edit it for its next adaptation as a widely-read op-ed piece.

Why should Tanta destroy her credibility and narrow her audience by going MSM?

How long before armed Nat'l Guard 'volunteers' stop by to ask you to make a 'deal'?

The most telling sentence in the article is:

"But the lenders said they were trying to change the perception that they're difficult to work with." (bold added)

As long as the problem is still one where they are thinking in any way about "perception", the troubled mindset that led to this state of affairs is still intact.

No, he's talking about the war in Iraq that too many of us have all but forgotten.

..you must be new here, Number2son.. it's not a reference to Iraq.

umber2son
That and the war on the american sheeple by Wall Street.

I go to work and I act like the Colonel- it will just all be good if we keep pushing it forward!

But I come home and sink into the Captain....BS from Washington and Wall Street is piling up so high you need wings to rise above it.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Northern Rock should take glod higher a few notches.

Anon,

That move comes very soon after a Debtor's Union forms...which seems like one likely scenario as enough disaffected FWO's get together on the internet (Formerly Well Off or at least maintained the illusion).

Obviously, the "someday this war's going to end" is from Apocalypse Now (I know you know that)..

..but it's figurative reference is to the strange imbalances in the world we inhabit. Someday... it's all going to work itself out.. and the financial insanity will end.

[Is $600 really enough of an incentive for a lawyer to think up a solution for reaching out to a potentially defaulting homeowner?]

Most FC attys who are being shoved into the loss mit business will tell you that it's not profitable for them.

What's most interesting is that we're looking at a $30-50k loss depending on location, etc., and the lenders think they should be able to solve it with $600 (if you're an attorney) and $50 (if you're a non-profit).

I also think it's disingenuous to refer to most non-profits as advocates. Most are paid by the lenders, or Fannie, Freddie, HUD. If the plaintiff's paying your fee can you honestly say that you're representing the defendant.

One more anecdote before I sign off: I attended a Freddie training for non-profits a few months ago. Not surprisingly, they're training folks to be tools of the lender. If they follow the guidelines in the training, they're really just acting as debt collectors... like the servicers themselves.

how can a serious business blog encourage theft?

I'm not encouraging theft.

On the other hand, I'm not criminalizing bad financial decisions, either. My point is that if you have a 20-year history of making yourself really hard to talk to, you should probably not be surprised when people refuse to take your calls.

You want a solution? Well, let me tell you that even more consolidation isn't going to help. How is BoA going to do any better with that $1.5 trillion portfolio than CFC did? I've made that argument before: if you take all the "efficiency" out of it, it doesn't meet your valuation.

Break them up into regionals. Institute sane FTE-per-loan levels. Cut out the fee-gouging and rapid transfers. It'll be a less lucrative business, but someone will be tempted. Mr. Buffett?

1-800-eli-swaps

just how big is the CDS industry? 45T or higher? seen all sorts of figures.

if i were smart i'd move to the Caymans, setup my own HF, and sell CDS protection all day long. and WTSHTF, turn off my fax

energycon- After the 'foreclosure freeze' that we discussed betting on.

i can't believe those CDS sellers having only to pay out 36 cents for every 100 cents protection they sold. amazing.

i think WTSHTF, the hedge funds who are undercapitalized and never should have been writing this stuff are going to walk just like everyone else. hell, its "socially acceptable".

That move comes very soon after a Debtor's Union forms...which seems like one likely scenario as enough disaffected FWO's get together on the internet (Formerly Well Off or at least maintained the illusion).

energyecon,

I'm glad to see others thinking on the Debtors Union. Which makes more sense "Debtor's Union" or "Debtors' Union" or just "Debtors Union"?

In my sci-fi visions of the future.. if our contemporary financial imbalances aren't worked out in some reasonable manner.. the Debtors Union will sort of arise naturally. It's sort of like violent revolt without violence.

People are already simply ignoring their bills.. all you need now is for some groups of people to stand up and label this as a movement. Once you give individuals a sense of connection.. these sort of lazy seeming actions become more meaningful (rightly or wrongly).

Then it takes on a life of its own. hehehe Smile

Dave writes:
Are we talking about IndyMac?

...you prob'ly think this song is about you...

Mark Twain could have written that post. nice

..you must be new here, Number2son.. it's not a reference to Iraq.

I'm not new here and I haven't forgetten the war in Iraq or the war Allen talks about.

BTW, Tanta. One thing that tends to get little attention these days is the shift in segue predatory lenders have made into reverse mortgages. I have a bad feeling that in a few years time (or maybe sooner) we're going to be reading stories about people in their 70's and 80's who have drawn out all the equity in their homes and have no resources to cope with a financial emergency. Or worse, lose their homes.

But maybe I just worry too much.

Actually, the non-recourse homeowner can view their mortgage as a call option that rolls from month to month.

The strike price is the principle balance and the premium is (or should be as discussed in another thread) a component of the interest payments.

The homeowner can exercise an in-the-money call for a profit by selling or choose not to roll an out-of-the-money call by walking away (i.e. letting the option expire worthless).

i live in a relatively wealthy west coast community with high housing prices and i have a broker friend who at the peak made over 500K. now that his business is in the doodoo he tells me he's advising his former clients who are upside down to walk from their homes. simply amazing.

idoc, ask your broker "friend" how he lives with himself.

umber2son

easy. its always someone else's fault. a symptom of our society.

idoc writes: i think WTSHTF, the hedge funds who are undercapitalized and never should have been writing this stuff are going to walk just like everyone else. hell, its "socially acceptable".

What scares me is a series of cascading defaults caused not by financial insolvency but rather by a 'screw the other guy' decision.

Walking away is not socially acceptable and in some contexts would be socially deplorable if not criminal.

Allen

your view makes more sense.

I'm not new here and I haven't forgetten the war in Iraq or the war Allen talks about.

number2son,

Sorry.. my comment was a little too snarky. Too much coffee for me.

just how big is the CDS industry? 45T or higher? seen all sorts of figures.

idoc,

isda.org puts it at $45 trillion as of the first half of 2007.

Now.. to be clear... a lot of that is default protection against corporate bonds.. not CDOs.

You can be damn sure there were a lot of CDS contract written over the last 8 months.

Just for fun.. I'd randomly guess we have $65 - $70 trillion in CDS outstanding for 2nd half 2007. But, that is literally a number from my butt.

Maybe I should go higher.. and just say $80 - $90 trillion.. hmm..

Not so long ago, people assumed that a big, nationally-known company would not blatantly cheat them.

Now, when we get a telemarketer phone call or read an advertisement from major companies, most of us assume that there is some significant deception going on, because we've been burned or almost burned in the past.

The level of cynicism and bitterness is as high as it's been in my lifetime.

eli

how can buyers of CDS rationally justify their huge increase in purchases over the last 6 mo given the lack of regulation, hi risk of default, and expense associated with such? look whats happened to AIG.

Actually, the non-recourse homeowner can view their mortgage as a call option that rolls from month to month.

Allen C,

hehe.. i'm going to pedant out here since I hear all this put/call talk on the mortgages for these homes.

I really think the most accurate analogue would be:

Owning a home purchased with a no money down mortgage is like going long a futures contract on that home with no margin requirements. You just have to pay a minor monthly fee to keep rolling it over.

The futures contract minus margin captures the idea of... if the price drops too much and you sell.. technically you do owe money. If it were a long call or long put that you exercised, there would be no lingering debt.

I'm watching Dr. Who. The good DR was just in a Hooverville, whilst the Dahlek just ordered pig men....I'm off to the bunker.

I'm so friggin' scared I can't type.

Cheers,

$45 trillion is enough to bring the entire system down if counterparties believe they don't have to honor contracts and are able to get away with it. It would be a bloodbath in the financial markets followed by one in the streets.

Not so long ago, people assumed that a big, nationally-known company would not blatantly cheat them.

Exactly. The day Wells Goddam Fargo has to send out disguised letters to assure its customers that it is trustworthy enough--because they'll throw it away if they think it's from their mortgage servicer--the whole effing industry just jumped the shark.

Remember in the post-Enron years when all the accounting/consulting firms changed their names to "Altria" and made-up shit like that?

You wait. BoA will announce that after the CFC acquisition, it will do business under the name "Honestia."

sh*t. i had shorts on Prudential a couple of months back at 99 and covered at 90 b/c of impatience. now after AIG they plummeted. "stick to your convictions" i always say Sad

I think the homeowners like me who have a significant amount of equity in their homes will NOT walk away. Back in the nineties when the Los Angeles townhome I purchased in 91 dropped in value from my $150,000 puchase price to around $90,000, I never once considered walking away. I knew that in the long term the value would climb back up again. And it did: at the height of this real estate bubble I could have sold it for $400,000.

My point is that if you have a 20-year history of making yourself really hard to talk to, you should probably not be surprised when people refuse to take your calls.


That's a PR issue, expertly obfuscated, but still a PR issue.

People that had no equity from day one can not lose anything, because they never had any skin in the game.

All this activism is nothing but a wish to get a grant for unrealized imagined profit.

Anyone that ever operated a business knows that there are lots of customers better lost then found. In many cases the banks were forced by policy to do business with people against their better judgment.

Heck, even in the motorcycle business we often invite some customers to take their business somewhere else.

how can buyers of CDS rationally justify their huge increase in purchases over the last 6 mo given the lack of regulation, hi risk of default, and expense associated with such?

idoc,

I don't know.. I mean.. if one has a lot of cash on hand, selling Credit Default Swaps during a panic would seem like a good deal..

That's when you sell insurance.. when people are scared shitless.

(for the record, one does not buy or sell a CDS, from what I understand. Two parties enter into a swap contract since they are agreeing to swap flows of money. If anything, the CDS is being sold since one counterparty pays at least twice a year and the other pays nothing unless there is a default event.)

But, a problem occurs if people get even more scared shitless. You'd better have enough cash on hand to cover an increase in the price of the swaps contracts you entered into because margin requirements could increase.

"In many cases the banks were forced by policy to do business with people against their better judgment."

um, i don't think so. the banks willingly and enthusiastically took these poor loans on b/c they made the faulty assumption that homeowners would never give up the house/mortgage vs. cc's or autos. they covet the idea of debt slaves.

if i were smart i'd move to the Caymans, setup my own HF, and sell CDS protection all day long. and WTSHTF, turn off my fax
idoc

that's so 2005

i guess thats why i don't run a hedge fund Smile

I'm an Idiot

BTW, how u doin dude?

my comment was a little too snarky. Too much coffee for me.

No problem, eli. I took offense too easily for the same reason ... and the fact that I'm working on my tax paperwork this weekend. Wink

movin up to next thread

Tanta, Wow! This piece is terrific!

Mencken is lighting one up with a smile on his face.

Great work!

After reading several of your witty and insightful (aren't they all) blogs, I felt moved to comment.

1.Do you think the mortgage servicers will stop to think what they sowed for this year's crop when they have reaped megamillions from last years' crops?
Blake Fleetwood: Richie Rich: When a Two Million Dollar Xmas Bonus is Chump Change

  1. From Greenspan sees strong chance of U.S. recession - Feb. 15, 2008 a quote from Greenspan:
    "If it weren't for the fact that business were so well-supplied with capital - thanks to the low interest rates over the last several years - he said the economy would already be in recession." Greenspans's rationalization of his actions get wierder and wierder. Isn't this like telling a worker in a polluted toxic waste plant working for 25% more than going wages, when he is stricken with cancer after a few years that he is lucky that he is so well-equipped with some savings for cancer treatment. I know a couple of young (20's) women who quit working for mortgage companies because of what they believed was the companies' unethical practice of pushing loans the borrowers could not afford. This was at a time when the leaders of our economy were encouraging reckeless borrowing and lending in the name of "American dream" of home ownership. It is depressing that fresh-out-of-college youth understands priciples of economics better than the leaders of the economy. Wait, it is actually encouraging; these old fogies will retire/die soon.

In many cases the banks were forced by policy to do business with people against their better judgment.

Ah, yes. The old "these poor banks were forced by the gubbmint to make loans to poor people, who are sharks" argument. Spare me.

That's why this is so farcical. ACORN, among others, was one of those groups agitating for serious enforcement of CRA for years, and getting ripped by the industry as a bunch of agitators who were going to force them to make loans against their "better judgment."

Now they're tripping all over each other to get ACORN's name on their letterhead.

In many cases the banks were forced by policy to do business with people against their better judgment.

Riiiight.

Dissident = Tangelo?

It seems to me that Mish and CR/Tanta are competing/copying eachother more and more ?

When people from different ends of the socio-economic & political spectrum 'converge' on the same conclusion... it would be wise to look at the unifying force driving that convergence. There is probably something there. Just sayin'...

um, i don't think so. the banks willingly and enthusiastically took these poor loans on b/c they made the faulty assumption that homeowners would never give up the house/mortgage vs. cc's or autos. they covet the idea of debt slaves.

They willingly and enthusiastically extended loans to more and more people because that was the only way their business could "grow." Companies traded on the stock exchange are always looking to "grow" their companies. Otherwise your company's stock begins to resemble a power company: You preside over your service area, try to look for little cost-cutting measures, pay out a nice little dividend while your P/E ratio languishes in the single digits.

idoc writes: how can buyers of CDS rationally justify their huge increase in purchases over the last 6 mo

Because the "smart" money realized it needed to hedge its CDO exposures last summer, so in a hurry they covered... and now they sit, sweating, claiming they're "neutral", but with a tight, sickened, feeling in their gut... hoping this lasts at least through the next bonus season...

This is great stuff. Tanta--do you want to be Jonathan Swift or Thomas Paine when you grow up? I thought you were just playing a feminine Tonto to CR's Lone Ranger, but maybe you have a calling greater than the silver/LCD screen?

DCRogers

so they hedge buying CDS, shorting CMBX, ABX, LCDX. when do they short stocks?

Two snaps, Tanta. You go, girl!

That's why this is so farcical. ACORN, among others, was one of those groups agitating for serious enforcement of CRA for years, and getting ripped by the industry as a bunch of agitators who were going to force them to make loans against their "better judgment."


Since you concede one of my points I concede this one. True.
Point being that all these activist organizations are composed of people too incompetent to make a living in the open market, so they find a "reservation" of sorts within government and/or exploiting their own people.

Don't get me wrong here, I dislike the Wall St corporate model as much as anyone, but these people are what enable them.

My view on your "we are all sub prime now" is that it is correct but only because of the sub prime sector ingrained standards and thinking that over time went mainstream and enabled the corporate leeches.

Heck, if they offer me a deal that I don't like I give them the one finger salute, I don't go and kiss them on the arse and sign their papers. But if I sign the paper I stick to the deal.

Wow, great post, great thread.

If any good comes of this at all it'll be that the vast majority of Americans realize that they're sharing the same boat. (Much to Carl Rove's displeasure I'm sure.)

If any good comes of this at all it'll be that the vast majority of Americans realize that they're sharing the same boat.

I think Americans (excluding the overly privileged) have begun to realize this over the past couple of years. We are all in this together, like it or not.

Even though many here like to make fun of the MSM, there's a good article on Yahoo Finance that suggests there's been a general unease among a growing segment of the population ever since the last recession ended:

Expired

I think Jimmy Carter had a word for it: malaise.

Actually I am still new here having only lurked for about 3 months. The explanation for Allen M's sign-off was helpful.

Concerning Tanta's post, does this reflect a softening of what I previously perceived to be her skepticism that more people will be walking away from the loans in this downturn?

Excellent post. The seemingly intentional inaccessibility, the lousy service, the CRs who either don't know (but they "understand how you feel"--because that's the next line of dialogue in their manual) or can't do much anyway, the continual inefficiencies & account errors . ... You got it all.

Not restricted to mortgage servicers, though, telecomms, consumer banking/some credit unions, credit card issuers, airline industry, and others exhibit these same behaviors.

For years I've thought that large corporations have externalized some of their costs of doing business by forcing consumers/customers to shoulder an increasing portion of the costs of correcting errors, making sure mandated/agreed upon changes are made, scheduling repairs, etc. (or whatever it was just didn't get done--usually increasing the profit of the corp but not always). Consumers/customers use up their time (which is worth $$--if only to the customer) because that particular business is no longer willing to pay employees to perform that function or to train what employees it does have to deal with those matters or problems. Instead, they offshore, don't make sure the offshore employees are properly trained or simply substitute automated telephone menus that are described so well in Tanta's post.

If any of those businesses that have been so happy to dump part of the cost of doing business--including possession of relevant experience & knowledge--on the customer, is now going to lose millions or billions as a result--I say, GREAT!

Their loss of billions, & business credibility may be a social problem but their reputation for untrustworthiness is amply deserved and perhaps is part of an eventual "solution" which I would say would include a return to former levels of regulation--and prompt enforcement of that regulation. That such institutions are perceived to have been "punished" (even if the CEOs walk away with big "retirement" packages) and are restricted in what they can do/how they do it might help restore some trust.

However, I agree with an earlier post of Tanta's in which she said she did not have a "solution" and there might no be one (I hope I'm remembering that post accurately).

good read about how we feel...

Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found


Misean writes:
I'm watching Dr. Who. The good DR was just in a Hooverville, whilst the Dahlek just ordered pig men....I'm off to the bunker.

Yeah I've DVRed it - I've taken up Dr. Who again and its not because of Freema either - when is Part 2 btw and is this the new slot of Dr. Who ? It used to be Tue and Sat - Sun was for occasional back to back episodes/marathons so I was looking for Episode 2.

Eddie Izzard that follows Dr. Who today is a hoot too.

Separately, I'm trying to educate myself about USA behaviours during Depressions so I look at anything about that - which is one of the reasons I DVRed the Hooverville Dr. Who episode - Freema had nothing to with it - the same way I'll watch that ancient Startrek episode about the Depression - Joan Collins will have nothing to do with it !

I've been slogging through "Freedom From Fear - David Kennedy" - American People during Depression and War 1929 - 1945 Its part of the OU History of the United States - its a bit disappointing so far actually - I was expecting the same evenhandedness that "Battle Cry For Freedom " offered - so far this doesn't discuss the opposition to FD Roosevelt and the Ne w Deal in very little detail.

Or so it seems to me - Other book suggestions are welcome.

-K

But I come home and sink into the Captain....BS from Washington and Wall Street is piling up so high you need wings to rise above it.

Yup and Paulson wants to hand out more speeding tickets at the Indy 500.

idoc writes: so they hedge buying CDS, shorting CMBX, ABX, LCDX. when do they short stocks?

(To backup, my point was that the surge in CDS sales was caused by the ("unexpected") breakdown in their CDO models... causing them to scramble back to neutrality when their highly-leveraged "AAA"-rated capital soured.)

As far as I know, their stock market quant models have performed as expected, so while there's lots of stock and index short purchasing in anticipation of recession, it's not caused by model or ratings breakdown.

You have borrowers who choose the lesser evil of losing their homes in silence rather than the greater evil of trying to deal with you.

Well said.

"We will use someone else's letterhead."

Yeah, baby. Mine!

I'm looking forward to sticking it to the banks.

Maybe part of the answer in the long term is peer-to-peer or direct lending. Instead of lending your cash (or your pension fund's cash) at a low rate to some crook in a suit and letting him lend it at usorious rates, let's dispense with the middlemen. One rationale for interposing bankers in the process was that they were professionals who could better determine good borrowers from deadbeats. Well....

I've read a bit about Grameen Bank and other microlenders. Their default rate would put Citi to shame. Perhaps they have something to teach the rest of us?

It seems a given, to me at least, that both business and government have been engaged in an effort to shift costs to the rest of us. It truly is a race to the bottom, and I'm going to help them.

I recently purchased a Hewlett Packard Photosmart C5240 printer, thinking the product might be worthy of its corporate heritage. As it turns out, the piece of sh*t won't even work as advertised.

So, their great-looking product was tossed out into the snow this morning and I'm putting HP on notice:

Your sht is no better than all of the other cheap sht out there. From now on, I'll just buy cheap sh*t until I find something that works.

So much for the goodwill value of your corporate franchise.

Have a nice day.

Most of the articles on this site are pretty good but this one is kind of a joke. The fact is that there is no 'work out' for most of these borrowers who are heading into foreclosure. Most of them should never have been given loans to begin with and probably none of the 'ARM' crowd can afford their home at the fully amortized rate. They just can't.

So whether the bank talks to the borrower before they foreclose makes no difference. I mean really, that Washington Post article was about a cashier and a receptionist who were trying to get a workout after their loan reset. Those people should be renting.

By the way, why do most people on this site feel like the borrowers are such victims? Most of them didn't have to put any money down, they got to live in a huge house at a teaser rate, and now they get to live rent-and-payment-free for the next year while they wait for the bank to foreclose. That sounds like a pretty awesome deal to me.

The real victims in all of this are people like myself who have been responsibly renting for years, have 20% to put down, but are too afraid to buy a house because values are too far out of whack.

"You wait. BoA will announce that after the CFC acquisition, it will do business under the name 'Honestia.'"

Was their old name "Rubicon" perchance?

Hey, the Google guys thought up "Videocracy" for the Youtube spiel though I thought "Idiocracy" was a better choice.

Maybe part of the answer in the long term is peer-to-peer or direct lending. Instead of lending your cash (or your pension fund's cash) at a low rate to some crook in a suit and letting him lend it at usorious rates, let's dispense with the middlemen. One rationale for interposing bankers in the process was that they were professionals who could better determine good borrowers from deadbeats. Well....

I've read a bit about Grameen Bank and other microlenders. Their default rate would put Citi to shame. Perhaps they have something to teach the rest of us?

The solution to this is incredibly simple: require borrowers to put 20% down. That's it. If each borrower throughout this entire wacky bubble period had been required to put 20% down, this bubble never would have happened.

Intermediaries are fine. You just need to make sure the borrower has some significant skin in the game. When you put $80,000 of your own cash into a $400,000 house, I can assure you that walking away is no longer such an easy solution.

"The real victims in all of this are people like myself who have been responsibly renting for years, have 20% to put down, but are too afraid to buy a house because values are too far out of whack."

You are not a victim. You are smart. However, why the overriding drive to buy? The longer you wait, the better off you will be, the better selection you will have, the less you will pay, and the absurdity of calling yourself a "victim" will quickly be realized.

Tanta,

Seriously, this is high snark from you. And I love it, of course. But what happened? Did some very specific piece of news get you so thoroughly exercised or is this a straw and camel situation? As a friend used to say, "Enough is enough and too much is a plenty."

"The real victims in all of this are people like myself who have been responsibly renting for years, have 20% to put down, but are too afraid to buy a house because values are too far out of whack."

People who are walking away from upside down mortgages don't realize it, but they really are just renters. No down payment? I call that a lease, not a mortgage.

Watching in Awe- No question, if I were lending MY money to someone to buy a house I would certainly demand they put a healthy amount down. Of course, the intermediaries weren't lending THEIR money, so they had no skin in the game either. The #1 reform I hope to see- bonuses are paid to bankers only as the loans made are paid back by the borrowers.

Misean/SK - How about some Torchwood - "2008 is the year that every changes..you gotta be ready..."

Last year, for the first time in my life, I knew I was going to be over 30 days late with my mortgage payment (I had only once before ever been late at all).

I called my mortgage lender, Wells Fargo, to inform them of this, to let them know the reason why and most importantly, to let them know when I would have all the money I owed to them. The lady on the phone was very kind and said she'd put a note in my account. That's all I wanted, so I was happy.

The next week, I've got the money together to be current, call Wells Fargo and they tell me they have no record of my having called earlier, attack me for being a deadbeat and then refuse to take my payment unless I enter credit counseling. I was incredulous, the lady on the phone said she literally could not take my payment until I entered credit counseling, and then started to ask me very personal questions about my finances. I hung up on her and tried again, until I found someone willing to take my payment.

I've learned my lesson, never call Wells Fargo.

I made my last loan payment on 1998-debt free since then. I read this site for vindication. I think lending has its place, but it is not the be all and end all for the borrower. When I saw ads for purchasing stereos twenty five years ago on credit, I thought that went too far. I had a bad taste in my mouth when my mortgage was sold to an out of state company about 18 years ago and there were foul-ups in making payments etc.

I have always viewed this business as a business and not the lender looking out for the borrower. The lenders and their shareholders began to believe their own pitch. Repeat something often enough and it can appear to be true and you can fool yourself.

Then there is demographics.

Thoth - read the Wash post article. It's pretty funny.

watching in awe:

I disagree with your assertion that "most people on this site feel like the borrowers are such victims?"

There are diverse opinions on this site related to borrower culpability.

it is true, some here feel that the borrowers are "victims" that will "lose their homes".

I would say that that is a minority however.

most feel that both lenders and borrowers are culpable. That said, some assign more guilt to the lenders, given the assymetry of information when it comes to the financial transaction.

I for one won't lose a second of sleep for most people who overbought or over-refinanced. Nor for the poor lenders.

I reserve my pity for those who had fraudulent/illegal contracts (as example, when their loan was changed after signing etc) or for those who truly couldn't understand the process (like retared people or those with severe dementia given loans) and also to the CHILDREN of the soon-to-be-displaced families

As for Tanta's post:
it's a little Sunday light-hearted snarkiness.

The message is true however, don't create your business to be impossible to contact, and then whine when the customers don't try to reach you.

[Tanta writes:
In many cases the banks were forced by policy to do business with people against their better judgment.

Ah, yes. The old "these poor banks were forced by the gubbmint to make loans to poor people, who are sharks" argument. Spare me.]

ACORN, CW, and the Lehmans of the world remind me of that Gahan Wilson cartoon of the creepy looking kids selling 5c lemonade on one corner while their confederates around the corner collect $5 from the customers lined up at the "Lemonade Antidote" stand.

Yes, there were plenty of predatory lenders out there, helping originate crappy liar loans, no down piggy backs, and thin equity low credit score junk paper to predatory borrowers in the expectation that they could repackage it and sell most of the sliced crap into the secondary market through predatory securitizers who figured they could pass the trash to credulous investors who put their money out based on S&P/Moodys/Fitch ratings.

It worked for several years too, going from ABS to CDO to CDO-squared to CDO-nth power, until suddenly the muzak stopped last July and August. Now the new scam is to highlight the torment of the credit-o-holics who have overdosed on all the freely available money in order to get the same politicians who were juiced by the PAC bribes from their builder, broker, and investment banker supporters to create this environment to "socialize" the mess [S&L Meltdown, Keating Five, RTC redux] and save them from the consequences of their scams by propping up collateral values so they can get back to fleecing savers and credit junkies.

In a minimally sane world, this would be a great big NO SALE. In the world we actually inhabit, the various creepy interest groups who gave us the present mess will probably go a long way towards succeeding in further debasing the financial system to eke out another short term advantage until they can figure out the next big scam to keep the action rolling. Any one of the current presidential candidates with a good chance of winning, together with the bulk of Congress, present or future plausible candidates, can be counted on to roll over for this. Indeed, one member of the last "Keating Five" group is in the A list for the Oval Office. Another A-lister has previous real estate and commodity market scams in her unauthorized resume. The third is a demonstrated master of spreading pixie dust backed by zero substance over mesmerized audiences; just the trio needed to give the voters an illusion of a real choice and then get back to the important business of making sure that this mad merry-go-round of "heads I win, tail someone else, or if all else fails, the taxpayers lose" gets another whirl or two.

Concerning Tanta's post, does this reflect a softening of what I previously perceived to be her skepticism that more people will be walking away from the loans in this downturn?

I am happy to repeat my previous contention that the fact that Ken Lewis believes something doesn't make it so.

I was challenging the assumption that there is some huge number of people who can afford to pay but are just walking away, and that this constitutes a "shift in values."

For all I know there is more than one borrower out there who can comfortably afford his payment, but has decided to let the thing go to foreclosure, even though he wouldn't have dreamed of behaving this way twenty years ago.

However, I see more evidence that people cannot, in fact, afford the homes they purchased with marginal loans; that in fact they're probably making too many financial sacrifices to keep them current (see the Post article today: these borrowers seriously scrounged to make payments as long as they could); that when they try to talk to their servicer they get nowhere; so they end up not even responding to servicer calls; and that this isn't some "change" in attitudes, it's exactly what you'd predict would go on if you had a IQ over room temperature.

You cannot claim that we just spent a boom making loans to people who couldn't afford them, and then turn around and claim that defaults are being caused by people who can afford these loans but just don't want to pay them. Do read the Ken Lewis quote again (last link in the post). He is "astonished" that people aren't stiffing their credit card and auto lenders in order to pay the mortgage lender. So apparently the old morality that Ken is so sorry to see go away was the one where mortgage lenders could count on always being first in line, and screw the other creditors. Oh, yeah, those good old days.

Ken Lewis's biggest fear is that borrowers will behave with the same amoral calculations that banks do. I think that's a fact about Ken Lewis. I am not saying it reflects a trend in the real world.

It cracks me up that our comment section is routinely filled with paranoid screeds assuming that every damn thing every lender has ever said is a lie, but then all of a sudden we're happy to believe this story about the "intentional foreclosures" with no skepticism whatever.

What I argued in my previous post is that borrowers who dodge the servicer's phone calls are often doing so because they are embarrassed by their own financial failure, not because they're brazen shameless amoral deadbeats. And if you read this WaPo piece, you will see stories of, precisely, very embarrassed people who simply felt too hopeless to even try to get anywhere with the mortgage company. That doesn't strike me as evidence of borrower ruthlessness.

Frankly, I've had it with people who are incapable of taking a hard look at the dysfunctional structure of the contemporary mortgage servicing industry because it's just too effing entertaining to get all righteous about little people behaving badly.

Harrumph.

The next step in this is to wonder exactly what the value of mortgage servicing rights are when the costs exceed the fees.

This is not a minor matter, although it may be possible to delay recognizing this on balance sheets.

CFC has $20b in MSR's listed as assets.
WFC has close to that.

BAC has only booked $3 billion.

The point is that if these assets disappear, it cuts heavily into capital.

It's possible that they might be able to protect the balance sheet estimate by expensing the extra costs somewhere else.

Nevertheless, timing differences reverse themselves and economic reality can only be delayed. Maybe that's enough.

Plus, they seem to be using higher math in calculating these things. Convexity and all the other fine points of valuing assets.

I dunno -- maybe all the costs should go into loan loss accruals.

Still, when you have huge assets that seem impaired, it seems like a big deal to me.

Barrons ran a favorable article on WFC but didn't talk about msr's.

"It seems to me that Mish and CR/Tanta are competing/copying eachother more and more ?

Mish is allowed to read the same newspaper we read."

By the way, this stuff was not in the newspaper 6 months ago. It is going mainstream.

I actually read a comment on the Miami Condo Housing Blog by some guy that was recommending that anyone buying a condo consider hedging by shorting banks making the loans.

Yearning to Learn on borrower culpability:

This is the great debate. Few feel sorry for the speculators who gambled and lost. They probably made money on the first few properties they flipped and lost money on the last one. So what.

I hope we don't lose sight of the larger problem. Unsophisticated buyers were sucked into mortgages they could not afford by very slick brokers. The products put out by the lenders - teaser rates, no docs etc - invited this behavior.

The lenders had a duty to the investors in MBS if not to the borrower and they blew it.

It's long past time to abolish HELOC and creative financing. Run low down payment loans through FHA. Stop allowing cash outs on refinancings for lower interest rates.

If people want to cash out of their homes, sell it and buy a new cheaper house.


Misean/SK - How about some Torchwood - "2008 is the year that every changes..you gotta be ready..."
Big ?

I think Torchwood is one of the best things to come of the Beeb in recent years - their BBC Wales production unit at that - when they moved the Dr. Who production over there I was sceptical( ). The new Dr. Who and Torchwood series have proven me wrong.

-K

Frankly, I've had it with people who are incapable of taking a hard look at the dysfunctional structure of the contemporary mortgage servicing industry because it's just too effing entertaining to get all righteous about little people behaving badly. (Tanta)

Right on target again. The problem the servicers are having is that (as Tanta keeps reminding us) renegotiating these deals one by one is complex, time-consuming, costly, and the outcome for the lender is not increased profits, but reduced losses, maybe.

These companies have spent the last few years trimming any part of the payroll not involved in closing another profitable deal right now. Now they have to rebuild the customer service component. But that part of the business is pure cost--a cost that must be incurred to cut losses instead of increasing profits. It's easy to understand why the people in charge of these companies are having trouble embracing this change.

Other thoughts on HELOC:

If we don't get rid of them completely we have to create a mechanism to cut off access when the LTV changes - something akin to a margin call. I suggest 20% as the limit but smarter people than me can come up with the right number. Of course, then the banks would actually have to pay attention to property values - they might want to reconsider their bribes to the appraisers.

For all I know there is more than one borrower out there who can comfortably afford his payment, but has decided to let the thing go to foreclosure, even though he wouldn't have dreamed of behaving this way twenty years ago.

Most likely this behavior wasn't as prevalent 20 years ago because buyers back then actually had some equity in their homes. Today's borrowers ... not so much. It's much tougher to walk away from a house when you have tens of thousands of your own money invested into it as a down payment.

This whole 'morality' thing is a canard. Most people are as moral as their wallet tells them to be. Twas always and ever shall be.

Of course, then the banks would actually have to pay attention to property values - they might want to reconsider their bribes to the appraisers.

Haha. Yep. I'd like to see a story on this. Yesterday's appraiser was receiving bribes to jack up the appraised value. Is today's appraiser receiving bribes from the bank to undercut the appraised value?

A look at housing prices in the San Fernando Valley (Los Angeles): Kate in the Valley

Harrumph.

i love a good harrumph.

someone above writes: Because the "smart" money realized it needed to hedge its CDO exposures last summer, so in a hurry they covered... and now they sit, sweating, claiming they're "neutral", but with a tight, sickened, feeling in their gut... hoping this lasts at least through the next bonus season...

Goldman Sachs?...

Watching in Awe | 02.17.08 - 3:08 pm |

Your comment is 100% in the money!

A look at housing prices in the San Fernando Valley (Los Angeles): Kate in the Valley

That is just crazy. 2000 sq feet for $654,900. Those folks in CA really are smokin' somethin'.

The weather isn't that good.

Paul,
Look at Dataquick: DQNews - DataQuick Real Estate Headlines and Statistics
Dozens upon dozens of zip codes at $325/sf or more.

Paul, in my neck of the socal woods, which is another valley with the same weather, I just sold my 1650 sf home for $735k.

sk-
To understand life in the 30's don't miss Frederick Allen's "Since Yesterday"- written in 1940. The sense of utter bewilderment seen in the elite then as the whole edifice collapsed is eerily familiar.

Can we settle this issue of "victims" once and for all? I'm sick of reading strawman attacks along the lines of "I can't believe you think they are victims; these are the real victims!".

CR/Tanta, can we set up a poll, so that each class of person affected can get a vote of victimhood by the readership? At least then, the comments might read "the 74% of you who think that people who were induced to lie about their income by their broker are victims are idiots".

Culpability and responsibility aren't binary functions, nor are the punishments that are being inflicted in this mess.

Grameen Bank is the cure?

If a cure is lending money at usurious rates with marginal assets, then Globopawn would be a fortune 500 company.

Now they charge usurious rates not for the money, but because it forces the borrower to look at their business plan to see if it truly is a home run.

There's all sorts of market opportunities in 3rd world markets because for globocorp there's not enough of a margin, whereas for a broke as a joke mama with 5 mouths to feed that margin literally is a world of difference.

Grameen Bank as a solution to the housing mess only works if you peers are house flippers and relitters.

sk,
Be careful of David Kennedy. He did a hit piece review of Paul Krugman a while ago. He really f**ked up on a historical reference. He is a "historian"??? Brad Delong handed him his head over that one. You might find it by Googling delong and david kennedy. Good Luck.

SoCal housing is crazy. Is it really worth it? Come to beautiful Michigan where the weather sucks 9 months out of the year and you can buy the same house for 1/3 the price.

No wonder those folks are in foreclosure.

Oy Vey wrote:
Great piece of journalism. You showed some anger there. We are all angry. Maybe 1 800 flowers will get some business out of the mortgage companies if the wedding invites dont work.

I was thinking Singing Telegrams.

Your mortgage holder cannot reach you
So they sent me to beseech you
to stop being a dope
and call 1-888-995-HOPE

If I don't pay my credit card debt the lenders can come after me - in many cases even after bankruptcy.

If I walk away from my house and its non-recourse loan the lenders can take the house and ding my credit rating but that's it. In addition I don't have to pay taxes on the forgiven debt.

Tough decision. No wonder the bankers are all in a tizzy. The law of unintended consequences at work.

Don, don't worry about about California housing prices. Once we're done loading it up with debt and encumbrances, we'll give it back to Mexico. They'll call their new/old state something like Aztlan.

It will have an agro-industrial economy. The agro will be dope grown in Mendocino. The industrial will me brewing crystal meth in the central valley.

We'll still have elections, but they will be much less confusing. The outcomes will be already known. All of us debt peons will dutifully troop over to the Patron's haceinda before the vote to get our instructions.

Housing prices around SoCal are insane.

For what it's worth....

I'd like to buy but not in this environment and probably not in California. I've been trying to remove some of the emotional aspect from the decision making process since it's a big commitment money wise. I don't want to get caught in a money pit because of house lust.

Part of the process has been trying to figure out what is in fact actually affordable. Yes, there's aiming for 2x income, but there's also the factor of price per sq/ft.

I finally arrived at $100 per sq/ft as a modest and conservative price of just how much house I'd be willing to buy. So while a house might be priced at just 2x income, if the price per square foot is $300 sq/ft, it's going to make me stop and think twice.

(price of house = (2 x income))/sq ft = 100

There's probably a formula out there for calculating all of this. I just haven't come across it yet.

BEl Goyo said:

But what are the alternatives? I wonder, would borrowers be willing to pay a premium to have the servicing of their loan be local? Or not subject to transfer? Is there a market for "niche" servicing?

This is nothing new. 25 years ago I had a loan sold out to GMAC. Pinheads send me a coupon book with 360 little pieces of paper in it, like the taxes were never going to go up.

about the mid 90s, the government mandated one of those pieces of papers you get at closing is the percentage of loans they keep. I found a great local bank that kept their paper. Used them on a couple mortgages. If I have a problem, i can call or go to the bank, take the elevator to the 2nd floor and TALK to the PEOPLE. Cost me .25 of a percent over the cheapest rate, but to me, it is a better deal than sleeping poorly at night.

What is aggrevation worth?

Gomer

It will have an agro-industrial economy. The agro will be dope grown in Mendocino.

Growing with pride in the state forest since 1964. If you are a tourist, stay on the marked roads, wander off and you will be shot.

Back on topic sort of, our son was a victim of identity theft a few years ago. The perp, now doing time in state prison, bought a motorcycle in my sons name. The original holder of the loan sold it to some collection company. It has since been sold repeatedly as no-one can collect the balance. On the rare occasions when we accidentally answer when one of these companies' calls, we tell them the story, give them the police case number and tell them, if they want further information, write a letter explaining why they think our son should pay for what a criminal did. They never write, just call. So we check the caller ID and don't answer. Currently we get an "unknown caller" every business morning at 8:05AM that we don't bother to respond to. Sort of the behavior described by Tanta; it is not worth our time to argue with collection companies.

FT Woods,

Most RE investors value houses based on how much rent the property would bring in. A good deal is around 100x monthly rent. So, if a place were to rent for $1000 per month, then a fair purchase price would be around $100K.

To really get an accurate view of the value of a property, you would need to spreadsheet it. Your spreadsheet should include the interest lost on your downpayment, your mortgage payment, property tax, HOA dues, and maintenance costs, expected appreciation/depreciation, etc. You can then compare your financial situation over various time periods based on owning a property versus renting an equivalent property.

Ambac in Talks to Split Itself Up
By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP, KAREN RICHARDSON and LIAM PLEVEN
February 17, 2008 7:18 p.m.

Ambac Financial Group Inc. is in discussions to effectively split itself up in a move aimed at ensuring that municipal bonds backed by Ambac retain high credit ratings, according to a person familiar with the situation.

A deal could fall apart because of the complexities in such a move, this person said. Bond insurers in recent weeks have become ground zero in the global credit crisis because the companies contractually have agreed to stand behind billions of dollars in securities underpinned by U.S. subprime mortgage loans.

A halving of Ambac would create one unit that insures municipal debt and one that would cover rapidly diminishing securities tied to the mortgages in a structure that effectively creates a so-called "good bank" and "bad bank." Bond insurers generate revenue by promising to cover bond payments on debt issued by a range of entities, including local governments. Bond insurers now are under pressure, though, because they also agreed to guarantee payments on mortgage debt or securities to banks, brokers and investors.

Ratings companies now are poised to further cut credit ratings on bond insurers because of those guarantees. Ratings downgrades can have chain reactions and lead to increased borrowing costs for municipalities and write-downs for banks that own debt backed by the insurance providers. To avert financial chaos, regulators in New York, including state insurance superintendent Eric Dinallo and Gov. Eliot Spitzer have pressured the companies to find solutions or else face regulatory action.

Ambac is one of two bond insurers considering an effective break-up. FGIC Corp. on Friday notified Mr. Dinallo's office, the New York State Insurance Department, that it is pursuing an effective break-up. But according to people familiar with the situation, FGIC's plan came as a surprise to a consortium of banks that had been in early discussions to shore up FGIC's capital. Talks between the two sides be prolonged and litigation may be one outcome. Ambac's plan is much further along and an announcement could be made this week.

But the plan to split Ambac is complex and has required tens of hours in recent days. While a "good bank-bad bank" model has existed for decades, there isn't a playbook for halving a bond insurer. A number of issues remain to be resolved, said a person familiar with the situation.

An Ambac spokesman wasn't immediately available for comment. Ambac is based in New York and is the second largest U.S. bond insurer behind MBIA Inc. FGIC ranks third.

Write to Carrick Mollenkamp at mollenkamp@wsj.com Karen Richardson at richardson@wsj.com and Liam Pleven at pleven@wsj.com

Good advice, wia. Thank you.

I think I'm a good 5 years out from making any kind of commitment to buy. And my rent is significantly less than the monthly mortgage for the same amount of space here.

Honestly, I just don't know what people in SoCal were thinking. I still do not get it.

A number of co-workers actually tried to convince me to buy with the old "but real estate always goes up"...sadly, I just learned one of them had to raid his kids college funds because he's loaded up on too much debt. I swear I almost had a sympathy panic attack when I heard about his plight.

wia, thank you for the advice. (I thought I posted a response but it's not showing up. Possible I posted it in the wrong thread.)

That's weird. It just showed up.

only reflection...what will the investors think...how will europeans feel when the paper is shoved up their petard..gotta love it

You rock, Tanta!
My pet theorey for why all the nutcases are showing up in the sane financial/economic blogs and the Obamatards are showing up in liberal blogs is that the much sought after "center" has deserted the Republican party in disillusionment, and have arrived in the reality based community with years of muddled thinking, misinformation, and a serious habit of believing any apocryphal anecdote that will get their tongues clucking in indignation, which they then extrapolate into a trend which they can trace back to Woodstock.
Be as patient as you can, but don't feel guilty when you have to kick some ass too. That Kool-Ade was some fcked up sht.

I missed this story yesterday, but I have to say that ACORN acting as agents of the mortgage industry to track down deadbeats is the ULTIMATE in class irony.

ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, is the nation's largest community organization of low- and moderate-income families, working together for social justice and stronger communities.

I'd say they came into the helping-low-income-people party just after the last of the weed got smoked. This co-opting by Countrywide is nearly comical--if it weren't so tragic in context.

(just a reminder--when a grassroots organization takes money from a huge corporation, they have jumped the grassroots shark)

Harrumph.

Ah, Tanta, that comment was worthy of a top-of-the-fold post in and of itself.

Tanta, IF I owned a wall I'd frame this commentary & display it prominently over the living room fireplace. You're one special person!

Unbelievable posting. Bravo. Just when I think it can't get any better...

Tanta, finally you've congratulated the herd trainers on their success!

There was something very John Gault about that post. I like it! The lenders never really like the borrowers anyway, so they will simply stop dealing with them. Seems fair to me.

Part of every homebuyer's mortgage/deed of trust is a provision that if you don't pay, the bank gets the property back.

Millions of Americans are now finding they choose to exercise that option, rather than to continue overpaying bloated amounts for overvalued property.

It's the American way and, it's in the contract.

Tanta,

You seem to have met my BofA mortgage servicer. In the seven months I have had my mortgage with this behemoth, the mortgage service department has:

  1. Over-collected the escrow needed for taxes at closing by $1,200.
  2. Sent the wrong tax payment to the wrong tax collector. Took two emails just to get them to understand their mistake.
  3. Over-refunded the overage collected by $600 when I pointed out the original mistake.
  4. Compounded that error by resetting the escrow payment based on the developer's tax rate for the previous year rather than my rate for the coming year, creating what will now grow to $1,400 shortfall.

Because BofA never notified me of the change I had naively been sending in the monthly payment amount established at closing - which was about the only number BofA got right. The mortgage department has been applying difference between the correct amount I am paying and the incorrect amount they are now collecting to loan principal rather than escrow. GRRRRR.

Meanwhile, BofA's helpful Web email form gives me a grand total of 10 lines to explain all the stuff it has gotten wrong. It would be easier to stuff an octopus into a thimble.

I've only been saying publicly that there are significant issues with servicing platforms for what - four years now?

And anyone that thinks that servicers aren't making an absolute KILLING in the current market better go read the prospectuses again. The longer the borrower remains in default the more money the servicers make - not the note holders. PSA contract negotiation 101 - "additional servicing compensation".

Mortgage Servicing Fraud. Because after all, all you have to lose - is your home.

Fat Tail - who's your servicer?

You might want to go hit Mortgage Servicing Fraud or brush up on Mortgage Servicing Fraud a bit when you have some time...

BoA will announce that after the CFC acquisition, it will do business under the name "Honestia."
Kudos. That's the funniest thing I've read in weeks.

Tantane caelestibus animis irae?

I am happy to repeat my previous contention that the fact that Ken Lewis believes something doesn't make it so.
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