Went to show a house with a client late yesterday afternoon. The house in a semi-rural area in Northwest NJ. Large lots, no real "neighborhood" to speak of.
We pull up, get out, walk through the snow to the front door. The house has been vacant for some time, no cars around, driveway hasn't seen tracks since it snowed a few days ago.
I proceed to open the lockbox, no key inside, odd. I swear a little bit, I can just picture it being on the kitchen counter, left there by the last agent to show the place. Client tries the door, it opens.
Hmm, really odd now. No cars around, in the middle of nowhere, no keybox, and the door is open?
Walk into the foyer and yell a bit, no answer. Start looking for the keybox, etc. What do we find?
A "realtor" in the basement.
I introduce myself, he says he is just "previewing" the house, mumbles his name and then hurries out.
No car? Middle of nowhere? A turd in the toilet (no, I'm not kidding)?
I wonder how many starving Realtors are "camping out" in vacant homes that they have easy access to? Sure seems like a nice perk.
Now someone is going to have to come up with an analogy with the bandos and what happened to abandoned houses during the Great Depression. Then the picture will be complete (except for some Hoovervilles).
In a town I lived in, a realtor got arrested for renting out foreclosed and vacant properties. He got found out when one of the owners who had not been there for years made a surprise visit to find people living in his place. Commissions were lean at the time and this guy thought he had found the ticket.
I'm all for them. Things have been skewed in favor of the rich rich far to long in the US. Time for the forgotten and abandoned to take whatever measures they want to rectify things a bit. I hope they become a political issue and embarrass the hell out of the GOP.
I find it disturbing that people can so brazenly break the law and others will actually empathize with them.
This is more a sign of the unwillingness of the banks to actively liquidate their REOs because they are so capital impaired they would prefer to mark-to-model than take their losses and move on.
Abandoned properties need to be turned over efficiently to new owners not seized opportunistically by 'bandos' or out of work realtors. The losses will be severe enough without this added on top.
In Brooklyn we don't have Bandos. We have crackheads.
These cracksheads are using foreclosed properties as their personal ATMs. You'd think these dudes were commodity traders. I've seen buildings with all the copper piping, electrical wires, circuit breakers and other precious metal ripped out. I bet they're making a small fortune.
How the tides have turned. The Bandos are probably living in nicer houses and don't have to eat ramen for dinner like the common over-debted homeowner.
micronin,
Get used to the new nongentrified neighbors- give them some methadone clinics and a few more haircuts and they might just qualify for a Bush Loan to buy their new squat.
When I was in grad school in Philly I knew some grad assistants that were squatting, they had the utilities turned on using a fake lease, and they were quite well established in their new residence. A couple of them were even bribed to vacate after their squats were sold for tax liens by the city.
I don't understand why banks aren't willing to just auction their properties and take whatever the highest bid at auction is. At least it would get the property off their books and into the hands of a new owner. Surely the losses would be less then letting the property be destroyed by squatters.
"I don't understand why banks aren't willing to just auction their properties and take whatever the highest bid at auction is"
I agree. I listened to those home auction ads on radio and visited their web site. Lots of listing but when I read the fine prints, a winning bid is legally binding, BUT a bid isn't a winning bid if it doesn't meet the unspecified reserve. Why waste time holding an auction when most of the homes won't be sold?
I don't understand why banks aren't willing to just auction their properties and take whatever the highest bid at auction is. At least it would get the property off their books and into the hands of a new owner. Surely the losses would be less then letting the property be destroyed by squatters.
Well it might also force down the value of other properties they have on the books and exacerbate the foreclosure situation by cutting off refinancings through lower property values. But in the end the only real solution to this mess is affordable house prices.
In my student days this was known as squatting - there was a certain cachet to living in a squat; the tonier the section of the city the better; happy days..
"I don't understand why banks aren't willing to just auction their properties and take whatever the highest bid at auction is. At least it would get the property off their books and into the hands of a new owner. Surely the losses would be less then letting the property be destroyed by squatters."
Although I am sure there are a few good bankers out there (just like I am sure there are a few good crackheads out there), I believe most of them don't understand risk and loss aversion principles. When I was deciding what to do for a career, many a banker told me not to go into banking. It seems that the message didn't get through to some thicker people. Thus, we have a money system run by more bozos than good bankers.
Um Rob, a lot of houses in da 'burbs will soon grow a crop of funny stuff or homeless with wirecutters.
As for CA budget problems- they had best get themselves into gear and do some Ronnie R style tax increases, or they may find the bond market is closed to them, and big brother Uncle Sam unwilling to do a bailout.
But hey, a huge tax increase is always stimulative, right? Here in AZ we have morons that refuse to smell the java and raise taxes enough to just get over this year's budget hole, let alone what we face starting July 1, so hey denial is definitely the face of the Republican party- some of the total fools are still pushing for tax cuts!!!
Oh yeah, unlike CA we have been run by the starve the beast folks for 10 years, and they think there is still fat to cut? Howls of derisive laughter. The first thing they proposed was an immediate hiring freeze. Okay, now what are you going to do about the 4 percent of your workforce that is going to retire ASAP to escape this banana farm.
Went to a retirement last week- no replacement for the guy going- just do less with less. Oh yeah, my boss listened to me and we just bought enough paper for next year- last recession I got the nickname "Crapgame" for moving our surplus to others to get what we were short of in office supplies.
Quite simply, this mess is getting bigger and bigger- nowhere near contained in my estimation.
It sure would be interesting to see some satellite photos comparing Metro Atlanta from six years ago with current ones. Our country is being paved over. More traffic anyone?
"Our country is being paved over. More traffic anyone?"
Not to sound surly, but, action speaks louder than words. You can whine about the traffic or you can do something about it like move to Chile. I hear the traffic isn't that bad down there once you hit the desert. Problem solved.
I dont sit in any stinking traffic. I only put about 5K or 6K miles a year on my car, I work from my house. This year it might be a little more driving down to my leased Condo in Florida. Its nice to know if we cant fill the pools here I should have one there
I was reading in the AJC that if we dont get enough rain people will have to truck in the water @ $300.00 per load, plus a Dollar a mile! I like to plan ahead.
I wouldn't mind the old bond window being closed to CA for a little while; they've abused the hell out of it for as long as I can remember. Can't speak for AZ, but CA has plenty of fat to cut, and none too few overly generous compensation plans that could stand some serious trimming, too.
BOSTON - Regulators are trying to punish Wall Street for mortgage finance practices that expanded home ownership and spread risk among a host of new players but also may have duped borrowers and investors who supplied cash to fuel a housing boom that's turned bust.
This is like the fitting ending to a weird move....
And we get a glimpse in to all the houses as people of varying incomes in varying states of ownership are enjoying dinner... I think maybe a little classic Van Morison playing... I think it should be cold out side too... Snow maybe....
Regulators are trying to punish Wall Street for mortgage finance practices...
Regulator A: "Let's punish those bastards with a flood of bailouts and cheap money!!"
Regulator B: "Yeah! That'll teach them!!!!"
Regulator C: "And let's punish those stupid regulators for not regulating when it really counted and trying to pass themselves off as saviors now that the damage is already done!"
i find the markets runup in reaction to the Qatar bank investment announcement amusing. do u really think they haven't ALREADY bought the bank stocks they say they're going to buy?
oh to be a big player and pump my own stocks up just by talking about them...
yesterday i exited my driveway and started heading down the street at a decent clip in a very nice neighborhood. in the middle of the street is a guy i've never seen before with golf clubs slung over his shoulder with 2 small kids walking toward us. he starts waving his arms and yelling at me so i pull over and roll the window down. he starts screaming at me for going too fast and how he's gonna kick my ass. i drive off w/o a confrontation. my wife and kids were in the car as well and we were stunned by the outburst.
my wife says its probably the son of one of our neighbors visiting (or perhaps relocating back home?). i began to think that perhaps all of us are going to start seeing strange faces in our neighborhoods, even good one, along with some pent up anger. i kept thinking i should have got out of the car and mixed it up with this jerk. but today's article on bandos makes me think this strategy could cause me harm in the long run b/c this could be the start of a more frequent occurence and fighting every fight might not be such a good idea.
idoc writes:
yesterday i exited my driveway and started heading down the street at a decent clip in a very nice neighborhood. in the middle of the street is a guy i've never seen before with golf clubs slung over his shoulder with 2 small kids walking toward us. he starts waving his arms and yelling at me so i pull over and roll the window down. he starts screaming at me for going too fast and how he's gonna kick my ass. i drive off w/o a confrontation. my wife and kids were in the car as well and we were stunned by the outburst.
my wife says its probably the son of one of our neighbors visiting (or perhaps relocating back home?). i began to think that perhaps all of us are going to start seeing strange faces in our neighborhoods, even good one, along with some pent up anger. i kept thinking i should have got out of the car and mixed it up with this jerk. but today's article on bandos makes me think this strategy could cause me harm in the long run b/c this could be the start of a more frequent occurence and fighting every fight might not be such a good idea.
idoc | 02.18.08 - 4:08 pm | #
You better be careful with those golfers. I know one that has a driver thats built to drive a 30-30 by just pushing a little button. No joke. I also know another one who can do the same with his bamboo looking walking cane. There are too many nuts out there today. Its not worth it.
A friend mentioned a variation on the squatting theme to me last week. He lives in the IE here in California. Homeless or drifters will find a house with a brown lawn or other signs of being abandoned. They will move in and party for a week or so, then move on to find yet another house before anyone really notices. There's certainly no shortage of houses to try out.
The more I think of it, the bigger this Bando problem likely will be. Instead of trying to keep up with the Jones, people might take on the mantra of staying down with the Bandos. Go to work? Not me, I want to be like a Bando. Take a shower? Ever see a Bando take a shower? Water the grass? Then the Bandos might think I think I'm better than them.
We must stop this impending wave of group think while we can. Otherwise, the future looks awfully dirty, lazy, and ugly.
OT-since the news appear light today i have to ask a question about last wks topic on money supply according to Lee Adler. he claims its decreasing, not increasing, and uses the following graph of declining SOMA as proof. my confusion arises from the fact that i think he's focusing on the wrong parameter, SOMA. i think that the rising top total line supports the fact that the Fed has been pumping money into the system resulting in inflation in commodities and assets. what do u guys think?
Many homeless people have serious mental health problems and self medicate with street drugs and alcohol.A lot of them also have drug resistant TB,Hepatitis and AIDs.They do not make good neighbors,and punching someone in the mouth who has Hep-c is not advisable.
Thankfully, some enterprising individual (prolly Rob Dawg) has already come up with a website where you can report your neighbors who are actually Hep-C bandos that leave floaters in the loo.
Instead of the Foreclosure Bus Tour, maybe a Bando Bus Tour is in the future? A few bucks here, a few bucks there, and a business is begun.
I still think the govt. could put great use to subsidizing Section 8 for these abandoned houses. Lots of hurting people in lots of hurting industries could use a little subsidizing. Nature abhors a vacuum, after all. Fill those houses up.
I am starting to think that some new housemates may be in order for many folk: Misters Smith and Wesson, for example.
Yeesh... this Bando thing is starting to sound way too much like something out of some grimy, dismal, dystopic cyper-punk future. All we need now is cyberware, etc.
Bandominiums in good school districts will be especially sought after by Bandos with their Bandinos. Cause this next generation of homeless may be more characterized by their craziness as to what they could possibly afford in their previous lifestyle than the current crop under the bridges.
I wonder if cities could practice something like "triage eminent domain." I have no idea of the legality. But say you have two or three new subdivisions that are mostly empty, half trashed, and magnets for squatters.
You slap all the empty properties with public nuisance charges and, when not addressed by the owners, seize them. Move all the remaining owners in two of the subdivisions into the other one -- fix up all the vacant houses and offer them good deals and advise them on how to walk away from their current mortgages. And then doze the the other two.
I was reading in the AJC that if we dont get enough rain people will have to truck in the water @ $300.00 per load, plus a Dollar a mile! I like to plan ahead.
Hmm. I wonder how many trucks it will take to bring enough water to Atlanta. Even if nobody takes a bath or flushes the toilet...
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Saturday signed six budget-cutting bills that will close the projected $3.3 billion shortfall in the state budget this fiscal year, but warned that more spending cuts would be needed.
The spending cuts were approved by the Democratic-led California legislature on Friday and will take a combined budget shortfall for California's current and next fiscal year, which had been expected to to top $14 billion, down to just over $7 billion.
James Bednar, were you able to determine if it was NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, that left the property? He may have just been attending to the residence, watching it appreciate while he was there.
Did you notice that roughly 1/2 of metropolitan areas showed price appreciation in Q4. Really! Don't believe me (and don't let that case-shiller fool you)?
John Stark writes:
I was reading in the AJC that if we dont get enough rain people will have to truck in the water @ $300.00 per load, plus a Dollar a mile! I like to plan ahead.
Hmm. I wonder how many trucks it will take to bring enough water to Atlanta. Even if nobody takes a bath or flushes the toilet...
John Stark | 02.18.08 - 4:55 pm | #
Please refer to posts @ 3:25pm & 3:30pm. TY
Id be in the water trucking business if it were for drinking and bathing!
Yeesh... this Bando thing is starting to sound way too much like something out of some grimy, dismal, dystopic cyper-punk future. All we need now is cyberware, etc.
Pondering the Mess,
Don't be afraid of our sci-fi future.. we should be so lucky to see big, exciting changes in the U.S.
Sadly, I doubt there will be anything as neat as roving bands of bandos taking over entire blocks. But, I can dream.. i suppose.
idoc,
This Lee Adler person at WallStreetExaminer seems to be just filling up space. As far as the FRB is concerned, the monetary base has decreased from $824 billion in August to $821 billion as of Jan 30th.
And, if you look at the TAF... the amount of money banks have borrowed to cover reserves is about equal to the reported decrease in (the humorously named) SOMA... that's why the monetary base is not showing a drastic decrease.
I don't really know what his point is... guess he's complaining that the Fed decreased bank margin?
Also, see my link above... non-borrowed reserves are projected to increase from -$8.7 billion on Jan 30th to -$18 billion on Feb 13th.
Just look at my non-sense blog post about the TAF.. the chart I posted.. just extend the red line below the -$10,000 mark.. and past the legend on the chart that explains what each line is.
The fed seems to be temporarily nationalizing the banks in the US. But, no one can really post on the TAF stuff since, it's hard to tell what this all means in an exact sense.
Hmm. I wonder how many trucks it will take to bring enough water to Atlanta. Even if nobody takes a bath or flushes the toilet...
John Stark | 02.18.08 - 4:55 pm | #
I can take a stab at some rough numbers...
Typical OTR load limit is (IIRC) 35 tons.
So we'll work with a number of 8,750 gal/truck.
As of 2000, GA was withdrawing 1,246mm Gal per day serving an estimated 6.730mm persons.
Avg usage per person per day was 185.1/gal.
Census estimates per 2006 This Georgia metro area (Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta) was the nations ninth largest as of July 1, 2006 with a population of 5.1 million.
I will reduce that 5.1 million number by 18% (for those not on public supply) giving a rough public supply base of 4.182 million persons.
If all the water used by that metro area had to be trucked in, that would be 774.26mm gal/day.
I come up with ~88,500 truck loads per day. I can't even imagine the additional traffic that would generate.
A couple of pipelines woild be a much better solution.
However the bailout progresses here, the backlash appears to be underway...
Wall Street faces fury over subprimes
By MARK JEWELL, AP Business Writer
For years Boston's Mayor Menino lashed at the banking community to make homes loans within his city, much of which is redlined because of the low end communities. The prices were insane to begin with, but with idiot credit bullied for by the mayor, the fools ran up the prices. The mayor said nothing. Smug that his tax base was increasing daily.
Now the chickens have come home to roost. the foreclosures in some sections of town are so bad the mayor was on tv bad mouthing the same banks he arm twisted yesterday and showed the city cleaning the streets and getting ready to buy out the houses.
Guess he needs the lawsuit money to buy out the sh*tholes caused by the city's own folly. Plenty of blame to go around, but somehow the government officals do not seen to have a mirror to look into. Then again, I do not think Satin can see his reflection either..
Keith...OT...You mention Mitch Snyder...He was a good friend of mine back in the 70's and early 80's...I spent quality time with him in DC jail among other adventures....He would have been absolutly agast at how our society has evolved during the last 15 years...The massive mis-allocation of money to build McMansions while people still live on the streets in DC....I was just visiting SW DC a few weeks back and was down near the waterfront...It was amazing how many people are living underneath cardboard under the SW freeway...You would not believe...
Mitch had his issues...Believe me, I disagreed with him on a number of things....but he was one of the closest people I know to a living saint....
Bandos.... I seem to remember something called Urban Homesteading. Some cities with lots of abandoned housing and HUD were selling houses for $100 as long as the new "owner" brought the house up to code and lived in it 1 or 2 years. It might be something to solve the problem.
About fifteen years ago my friend, Murray, bought a few springs in North Georgia to supply his bottled water business. At the time I thought he was daft.
It seems that Murray is one of my smartest friends.
Pondering the Mess writes:
I am starting to think that some new housemates may be in order for many folk: Misters Smith and Wesson, for example.
Sounds more like a new business opportunity for the chainlink fence rental business. Although it might be cheaper to buy the fence to keep out Bandos since the house won't be selling anytime soon.
Adler is trying to address the whole inflation/deflation debate. many think the Fed is pumping liquidity into the system and they pt to M3 as evidence. Adler begs to differ and points to this graph and decreasing SOMA as evidence against excess Fed liquidity. i don't buy it and am in the M3 camp which is why i'm bullish on commodities and PM's.
he looks at that graph of monetary supply and sees decreasing SOMA. i look at it and see steadily increasing top line monetary growth of inflationary proportions.
it's tempting to think the system is outta control, but i guess instead that,...ALL GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN!!.
name an elected official who is willing to belly up to the microphone and tell the american people it is:... time to sacrifice,... save,... buy victory bonds,... pay down debt, live in a sustainable rather than a debt laden and over-growth society,....who?
if our mainstream leaders were to tell the truth,the rabble would scream and scratch their eyes out
just two have been so daring that i can think of... one small dem from cleveland ohio, and one squeaky repub from lake jackson texas...that's it!
most americans have lived way beyond their means ...less than 10% of the worlds population consuming more than 3/4ths the worlds resources.
we like to be told; it is morning in amercia, remember?
that the best way to defeat the terrorist is to shop, remember?
20 years ago a presidential candidate said as a matter of nationl security, we need a 50cent gas tax to fund alternative fuels research and was excoriated, remember?
yes folks. this is not investment banking gone haywire. THIS IS THE Plan.
America will shrink its insatiable appetite to consume all, but no leaders will have to bear the bad news... no, not one.
instead the money changers at the temple have been allowed to run wild, to excess, and gorge themselves one last time, until collapse... one last great roman orgy...think of it as the mardi gras before the fast.
and then the pograms will begin. lets see who shall they blame this time... don't worry im certain we will find our untermenchen. the real criminals will escape.
i suspect the elite are prepared for the next step.
The strange thing is that I had similar - although more benign - problems almost a decade ago. Real estate sales were slow here in the late 90's - and when people had to move - or were on the verge of being foreclosed - they leased their houses to "house sitters". Who were supposed to be great - but in reality it was usually a group of 4-5 unrelated single adults who didn't like to do maintenance - but liked to party late in the night. We wound up with "house sitters" on both sides of our house at one point. And it drove me nuts.
At this point - I know the people on one side aren't going anywhere until they retire. Think the people on the other side plan to stay put too. Don't know how the husband's business is doing (he worked as an appraiser for a bank) - but the wife sells medical equipment - like artificial hips - so I suspect she is doing fine. And her parents have money. So I think I am safe for now.
BTW - one reason the banks can't sell the houses immediately is - at least here in Florida - you need a judgment of foreclosure to get title to the house. Even if the proceeding isn't contested - the court process can take a while. And many foreclosures are being contested - there's a whole unit at legal aid devoted to fighting them (your tax dollars at work) - which can wind up dragging things out for years.
Ray On the Farm - What county do you live in? I really liked your message about your trips to the "big city" - i.e., Gainesville (smile). Roby
I agree (with Adler) that the Fed isn't pumping liquidity for over a year now, though I wouldn't say they are really tightening.
I am still bullish on PM's, have been bullish on commodities, but am not certain what they will do over the next few years. Long term they are going to the moon unless complete societal breakdown occurs first.
I think of it as M3/M1 being an indicator of leverage in the system. Right now debt is beginning to be destroyed through defaults, but overall leverage is still increasing.
There's a lot of BS out there, but I believe Russo when he claims that David Rockerfeller told him that the goal was to have an rfid chip in every american.
I also believe that this whole mess is a planned precursor to a new currency, either regional or global.
You can call me a kook, but I want to be grouped alongside that kook Andrew Jackson, who had written on his tombstone, "I killed the bank".
so how do u interpret the graph. i think if u follow the top line of the mountain representing all of the monetary base components, its been increasing over the past yr.
Oh give me a home,
Where foreclosures soar
And the heat and the water are free,
Where seldom is heard,
An owner's word,
And the guy next to me,
Is a Bando, too.
I'm in the rental house business. I've had homeless persons move into vancants on occasion. They can and will do thosuands of dollars in damage in 2-3 days.
That graph certain shows a yoy increase, but I'm not sure if those are the "right" components to look at. I've been watching "Currency in Circulation", which stood at 819B at the beginning of 2007, and is at 813B according to the last H41 release. It's essentially been flat for the last year. I think a certain amount of increase in repos, TAF, etc is needed just to offset the declining willingness of banks to lend, and their loss of capital.
Either way they aren't openly inflating with increasing amounts of cash. It appears they are just trying to keep things moving forward for the time being. I'm still suspect that they may have started to covertly monetize the government debt, but obviously cannot prove it. It is obvious that the "traditional" buyers are no longer buying.
On the point of banks' taking their lumps on REO portfolios:
"Banks" is such a misleading term as many banks are just servicers. So as been addressed in this blog, finding just exactly who is the investor, who can make a decison, etc. is perplexing. Tanta's recent post Walking Away or Hiding Away is spot on.
Once the wheels actually get turning to list the property, have an auction, etc a major concern of institutions with "brands" to protect is public perception. This may be a bigger hindrance to fire sales than anything else at this point. Banks don't want to be accused of block-busting, kicking people out on the streets, etc. They are so much in CYA and PR mode, they can't get out of their own way to make rational decisions about what needs to happen. Understandable as they are such easy, public targets. Everyone else can shovel off their own mistakes and irresponsibilties onto these big targets. Sleazy public officials just LOVE to offload public angst onto the evil banks with self-serving "public summits/hearings." Pathetic.
We just had a big public REO auction extravaganza this wknd. Winning bids were about 50% off peak prices (about fair mkt value or a little over at this time). HOWEVER, winning bid is not the final word. It's merely the right to submit a purch offer to the lender, servicer, investor, whatever who can counter or refuse. I was told that there is about a 70% pull through on the auction bids. The other 30%? They go back to the original listing agent to sit on MLS for another 3-4 months at which time it will be put in the auction in June. Listing agents who had properties put in auction get 2% of auction price. Expenses are reimbursed outside this amount. Fuckin parasites. They are bascially being rewarded for having a languishing, expired listing. Many of the agents made btwn $40 - $100K+ in ONE day at this sale. Yeah, they might have been managing the property the whole time they had the listing - NOT! They simply "set it and forget it". Sign in yard (maybe), lockbox on door, listing on MLS, and.... wait for auction company to do the work and pick up check once deals close. Outrageous. Nice work if you can get it. Talk about just simply showing up and putting your self in the way of order flow like a toll booth.
Things are gonna have to break soon, these vacant homes are gonna cost so much more in vandalism and other liabilities. But, like all great dumbshit bureaucracies, gotta take a kick in the face to wake up and start doing more intelligent things.
I'm in the rental house business. I've had homeless persons move into vancants on occasion. They can and will do thosuands of dollars in damage in 2-3 days.
Reminds me of a great quote from a real old-timer in the business referring to his foray into public housing. He had busted his butt rehabbing a rundown project and it turned out quite nice... until the dirtbags moved in. Within months the place was a shambles. This is what he said:
They consume properties.
Like bipedal termites or something. They consume properties. Great visual. I always remember that comment.
Did you finish your post without realizing that what you describe as criminal merely fills the vacuum of what hasn't worked and still isn't working?
===
No. I am comfortable with calling it a criminal act to squat in a home.
What might appear heartless is really not. Am I heartless to have concerns about the greater economy? Should I just go along with the Robin Hood bleeding heart sentiment of this thread?
My children are 6 and 9 and if I were going to try to explain this to them, I would probably say that though it is tragic that there are people without homes, that it is still wrong to take things that do not belong to you.
I'm not saying that society does not need to do more to fight poverty and homelessness. But each abandoned home is already a tragedy whether the result of job loss, divorce, or simply someone choosing to exercise a put and stiffing an investor who very well could be a pension fund that thousands of retirees are depending upon to remain solvent.
The collateral still belongs to someone and it should be preserved as best it can until if can be sold to the next owner.
Opportunistic squatters are criminals. I don't really have anymore to say about this and I'm sure many disagree with me.
I don't think anyone would dispute that what 'bandos' do is against the law.
The economic question is how to minimize this risk, which has been present since the first REO was recorded under the reign of Marcus Aurelius in 160 A.D.
What is the cause of this?
a) field services companies are in thinner supply than decent plumbers during the boom.
b) servicers are not adequately staffed with experienced staff to handle the volume of REOs.
c) servicers are sandbagging REO inventory in hopes that the market will improve.
I think it's mostly a, some b, and much as some want to believe so - not c at all.
Okay. So who has the right of enforcement? Only the owner of the property can say whether the alleged 'squatter' has any right to be there. Therefore the owner of the property is responsible? And we should apply legal remedies to the banks/ holders of the deeds?
"I don't think anyone would dispute that what 'bandos' do is against the law. "
Sure it is. But the reason why bandos may be a growth industry is yet another variation on this moral hazard bit. You fund a real estate industry with irresponsible loans and pool those loans into rotten securities. And yet when the loans fail and the homes go vacant, the financial types who take possession of the homes are ill-prepared to protect them, to the the ultimate harm of the community.
Screw that. Communities should pass laws, step in, protect the properties and keep out bandos -- and bill the mortgage holders for every dime, with penalties.
I think the drop in M1 is the real reason for the 1.25% panic cut. That's quite a plunge after 1/1/08. The Fed has obviously decided for some years now that M1 is its prime target. It does pretty well for the CPI, that's for sure, while M3 is a total bust for the CPI. Some don't agree with the M1 target but I think we're all honest enough to admit nobody knows whether M1, M2 or M3 is the best measure right now.
Commodity shortages are mostly being driven by genuine shortages. The earth is only so big and we're really starting to push some limits now with industrialization spreading from 1 billion first worlders to 4 billion or so in BRIC and similar countries.
"Screw that. Communities should pass laws, step in, protect the properties and keep out bandos -- and bill the mortgage holders for every dime, with penalties."
First of all it is "Bandos," not "bandos." You won't refer to Cher as "cher," would you?
Secondly, to bill mortgage holders for every dime, with penalties, sounds great on its face, but, ultimately, those mortgage holders are the US gov't, and, as such, you and me will end up paying those penalties. I'd rather spend my money on fast cars and loose women or, if those are not available, beef jerky.
I prefer a 12 year old single malt aged in Spanish oak to beef jerky, fast cars or loose women (that last, I've found ways to pick up without paying). Prefer any of the above to buying my share of the shitpile.
The lenders made this mess, let them lie in it... with the Bandos and the midnight U-Haulers.
The way to stop the bandominiums quick would be for the banks to sell the properties off at heavily reduced prices. But they're not doing that, so we've got a lot of empty homes.
Of course people will move in and squat. If you were living outside under some bridge, what would you do? Freeze in your cardboard box or kick open a basement window and camp out inside?
A few weeks back, a realtor showed me a place that had "bandominium" written all over it (in one room).
Back in the late 70's/early 80's (? can't remember the exact time period), during the Great Manhattan RE/General collapse, my sister squatted in a nice lower Manhattan apt. The whole building was full of squatters. Nice bunch of people,most had been renting in the city for years and those were the best apts. they'd ever had (ie. big and free). They started a beautiful garden in the next door lot where the building had been demolished.
Basically, they kept the neighborhood safe simply by being there. Until the city finally woke up and began selling for back taxes or less. At which point several of the squatters bought.
The banks can wake up now and sell these places for 80K or they can wait a few years and let the city take 'em over and sell them for 2K.
Either way they're losing money because that's the way they themselves set the scheme up.
"The banks can wake up now and sell these places for 80K or they can wait a few years and let the city take 'em over and sell them for 2K."
The problem is that the banks who loaned on these deals already know they are going to be taken over by a bailout, so they have no incentive to do right. Their only incentive is to try to get paid salaries as long as possible.
I say give The Bandos Credit Cards and monetize this situation for the betterment of America, after all, this is still the Ownership Society, and we need these people to own things, just like CDOs and SIVs!
Indeed - perhaps the gubermint needs to issue "Save Amerika" credit cards to Bandos so they can furnish their new squatters' paradise. After all, we are what we consume, or something like that, and consumption is the most important thing we produce!?
If bandos are common criminals, what are the bankers & brokers who got us into this mess?
Personally I'd rather have the widowed accident victim on disability move BACK into his house across the street from me, despite being forclosed on, than have it stripped by little thieves after the big bank thieves took it from him.
If it stays vacant with the power off much longer it's not going to be worth a thing. This is still the rainy season. Without the sump pump working, that house is going to rot.
And I gotta say, if we had national healthcare, the poor guy would still be in his house because he wouldn't have needed to take a 2nd mortgage to pay medical bills.
Nothing wrong with having the bandos living next to you. They are a good source for babysitters if you are in a bind. Probably cheap, too.
On the street we call them 'Abandominiums'.
Give them a lawn mover and let them earn their keep!
Mower, or mover. Whatever.
Maybe a federal program will be created to turn some of these money pits into Section 8 housing. Don't know why it wouldn't work.
Interesting anecdote..
Went to show a house with a client late yesterday afternoon. The house in a semi-rural area in Northwest NJ. Large lots, no real "neighborhood" to speak of.
We pull up, get out, walk through the snow to the front door. The house has been vacant for some time, no cars around, driveway hasn't seen tracks since it snowed a few days ago.
I proceed to open the lockbox, no key inside, odd. I swear a little bit, I can just picture it being on the kitchen counter, left there by the last agent to show the place. Client tries the door, it opens.
Hmm, really odd now. No cars around, in the middle of nowhere, no keybox, and the door is open?
Walk into the foyer and yell a bit, no answer. Start looking for the keybox, etc. What do we find?
A "realtor" in the basement.
I introduce myself, he says he is just "previewing" the house, mumbles his name and then hurries out.
No car? Middle of nowhere? A turd in the toilet (no, I'm not kidding)?
I wonder how many starving Realtors are "camping out" in vacant homes that they have easy access to? Sure seems like a nice perk.
Now someone is going to have to come up with an analogy with the bandos and what happened to abandoned houses during the Great Depression. Then the picture will be complete (except for some Hoovervilles).
In a town I lived in, a realtor got arrested for renting out foreclosed and vacant properties. He got found out when one of the owners who had not been there for years made a surprise visit to find people living in his place. Commissions were lean at the time and this guy thought he had found the ticket.
I think my irony circuits just fried.
I'm all for them. Things have been skewed in favor of the rich rich far to long in the US. Time for the forgotten and abandoned to take whatever measures they want to rectify things a bit. I hope they become a political issue and embarrass the hell out of the GOP.
Outsider,
Section 8 will allow the people who couldn't afford to live in the house they bought to live in the house they couldn't afford.
Actually there are some of us with healthy incomes and our finances in perfectly good order living in "abandon" homes.
See? Libertarianism DOES work! The free market got rich investors to build homes for the homeless, at a loss!
Eat your heart out, Mitch Snyder.
BTW I don't think there's anything morally or ethically wrong with this if you plan to buy the house when the market picks back up.
I love it..."negative externality"
Guess it sounds better than "turd in the neighborhood punchbowl."
If two vagrants try to occupy the same house, you have "Dueling Bandos."
I'm feeling kinda folksy today...
There was a squatter in the house
And Bando was his name-O
B-A-N-D-O
B-A-N-D-O
B-A-N-D-O
And Bando was his name-O
cd
I find it disturbing that people can so brazenly break the law and others will actually empathize with them.
This is more a sign of the unwillingness of the banks to actively liquidate their REOs because they are so capital impaired they would prefer to mark-to-model than take their losses and move on.
Abandoned properties need to be turned over efficiently to new owners not seized opportunistically by 'bandos' or out of work realtors. The losses will be severe enough without this added on top.
The 'bandos' are common criminals.
James Bednar
LOL!
so how do u know he was a realtor? did he look like he'd had a hangover?
on foot too!
They are a good source for babysitters if you are in a bind. Probably cheap, too.
And you can threaten to "report them" if they don't mow your lawn once a week.
Circling the Drain
ROTFLMFAO!!!
hey, that guy with the 1 tooth looked like my Dad.
"The 'bandos' are common criminals."
Au contraire. I think they are uncommonly resourceful and a welcome and proud addition to any neighborhood. Just like squirrels.
In Brooklyn we don't have Bandos. We have crackheads.
These cracksheads are using foreclosed properties as their personal ATMs. You'd think these dudes were commodity traders. I've seen buildings with all the copper piping, electrical wires, circuit breakers and other precious metal ripped out. I bet they're making a small fortune.
How the tides have turned. The Bandos are probably living in nicer houses and don't have to eat ramen for dinner like the common over-debted homeowner.
micronin,
Get used to the new nongentrified neighbors- give them some methadone clinics and a few more haircuts and they might just qualify for a Bush Loan to buy their new squat.
When I was in grad school in Philly I knew some grad assistants that were squatting, they had the utilities turned on using a fake lease, and they were quite well established in their new residence. A couple of them were even bribed to vacate after their squats were sold for tax liens by the city.
Welcome to Exurban Decay- Rob Dawg style;-}
Someday this war's gonna end...
"In Brooklyn we don't have Bandos. We have crackheads."
Come on. I bet they are soft and cuddly once you get to know them. Just like squirrels.
I don't understand why banks aren't willing to just auction their properties and take whatever the highest bid at auction is. At least it would get the property off their books and into the hands of a new owner. Surely the losses would be less then letting the property be destroyed by squatters.
Wow. Trickle-down economics really does work.
beautiful.
"I don't understand why banks aren't willing to just auction their properties and take whatever the highest bid at auction is"
I agree. I listened to those home auction ads on radio and visited their web site. Lots of listing but when I read the fine prints, a winning bid is legally binding, BUT a bid isn't a winning bid if it doesn't meet the unspecified reserve. Why waste time holding an auction when most of the homes won't be sold?
I don't understand why banks aren't willing to just auction their properties and take whatever the highest bid at auction is. At least it would get the property off their books and into the hands of a new owner. Surely the losses would be less then letting the property be destroyed by squatters.
Well it might also force down the value of other properties they have on the books and exacerbate the foreclosure situation by cutting off refinancings through lower property values. But in the end the only real solution to this mess is affordable house prices.
Welcome to Exurban Decay- Rob Dawg style;-}
That's "Cenurban Decay" thankyouverymuch. "Exurban Decay" is brown lawns followed by midnight debarkations.
I wonder if the banks have any insurance on those houses? lol
In my student days this was known as squatting - there was a certain cachet to living in a squat; the tonier the section of the city the better; happy days..
-K
Abandoned properties need to be turned over efficiently...
The CAT dealer down the street has some trackhoes for rent if you and your sledgehammer aren't up to the task.
I keep thinking of all the prime farmland around Sacramento, covered over with abandoned houses and wonder where will my next meal come from?
"I don't understand why banks aren't willing to just auction their properties and take whatever the highest bid at auction is. At least it would get the property off their books and into the hands of a new owner. Surely the losses would be less then letting the property be destroyed by squatters."
Although I am sure there are a few good bankers out there (just like I am sure there are a few good crackheads out there), I believe most of them don't understand risk and loss aversion principles. When I was deciding what to do for a career, many a banker told me not to go into banking. It seems that the message didn't get through to some thicker people. Thus, we have a money system run by more bozos than good bankers.
Does this mean there may be more than one bum in Corona del Mar?
Topher-no.
Um Rob, a lot of houses in da 'burbs will soon grow a crop of funny stuff or homeless with wirecutters.
As for CA budget problems- they had best get themselves into gear and do some Ronnie R style tax increases, or they may find the bond market is closed to them, and big brother Uncle Sam unwilling to do a bailout.
But hey, a huge tax increase is always stimulative, right? Here in AZ we have morons that refuse to smell the java and raise taxes enough to just get over this year's budget hole, let alone what we face starting July 1, so hey denial is definitely the face of the Republican party- some of the total fools are still pushing for tax cuts!!!
Oh yeah, unlike CA we have been run by the starve the beast folks for 10 years, and they think there is still fat to cut? Howls of derisive laughter. The first thing they proposed was an immediate hiring freeze. Okay, now what are you going to do about the 4 percent of your workforce that is going to retire ASAP to escape this banana farm.
Went to a retirement last week- no replacement for the guy going- just do less with less. Oh yeah, my boss listened to me and we just bought enough paper for next year- last recession I got the nickname "Crapgame" for moving our surplus to others to get what we were short of in office supplies.
Quite simply, this mess is getting bigger and bigger- nowhere near contained in my estimation.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Don't let anyone tell you that this administration didn't help the poorest of the poor find affordable housing.
It sure would be interesting to see some satellite photos comparing Metro Atlanta from six years ago with current ones. Our country is being paved over. More traffic anyone?
"Our country is being paved over. More traffic anyone?"
Not to sound surly, but, action speaks louder than words. You can whine about the traffic or you can do something about it like move to Chile. I hear the traffic isn't that bad down there once you hit the desert. Problem solved.
I dont sit in any stinking traffic. I only put about 5K or 6K miles a year on my car, I work from my house. This year it might be a little more driving down to my leased Condo in Florida. Its nice to know if we cant fill the pools here I should have one there
CR,
IMHO you should post on the S&P story that Sandy linked on the last thread. Could be the last straw on the monoline camel's back.
I was reading in the AJC that if we dont get enough rain people will have to truck in the water @ $300.00 per load, plus a Dollar a mile! I like to plan ahead.
AllenM,
I wouldn't mind the old bond window being closed to CA for a little while; they've abused the hell out of it for as long as I can remember. Can't speak for AZ, but CA has plenty of fat to cut, and none too few overly generous compensation plans that could stand some serious trimming, too.
I was thinking of setting up some sort of Bando wardriving but the friendly banks have already put up some nice pink signs of vacancy.
...No car? Middle of nowhere? A turd in the toilet (no, I'm not kidding)?
Say, is that how the new History Channel special, "Life After People" Starts?
It will be amusing to watch the community struggle to convince themselves that they are in a different social stratum than their new neighbors.
So, uncommon criminals are ok?
would these be bankers by any chance?
and three cheers for Circling the Drain!!!
However the bailout progresses here, the backlash appears to be underway...
Wall Street faces fury over subprimes
By MARK JEWELL, AP Business Writer
BOSTON - Regulators are trying to punish Wall Street for mortgage finance practices that expanded home ownership and spread risk among a host of new players but also may have duped borrowers and investors who supplied cash to fuel a housing boom that's turned bust.
[snip]
This is like the fitting ending to a weird move....
And we get a glimpse in to all the houses as people of varying incomes in varying states of ownership are enjoying dinner... I think maybe a little classic Van Morison playing... I think it should be cold out side too... Snow maybe....
CR,
Forget that prior comment about S&P. AOTC noted that it was a one-month old story. Funny, though, that we haven't seen more fallout from that.
There's a reality show waiting to be made for this.
I have a bad feeling the ones that are really going to get punished are us. The taxpayers!
"There's a reality show waiting to be made for this."
The Beverly Bandos
Regulators are trying to punish Wall Street for mortgage finance practices...
Regulator A: "Let's punish those bastards with a flood of bailouts and cheap money!!"
Regulator B: "Yeah! That'll teach them!!!!"
Regulator C: "And let's punish those stupid regulators for not regulating when it really counted and trying to pass themselves off as saviors now that the damage is already done!"
Regulator B: "Yeah!! I think."
Regulator A: "Wut?"
Or "Foreclosed Swap" where couples can avoid the collection agencies and officials of the opposite group when the switch homes...
tj,
Isn't S&P running the numbers on Alt-A and prime... a much larger bit of work than the subprime I imagine.
I imagine they are under tremendous pressure to not re-rate from TPTB as the frantic deck chair Olympics continues...
Sal: "History Channel special, "Life After People" Starts?"
I saw that a while back. I never made the connection until you mentioned it. How appropriate!
I think they are uncommonly resourceful and a welcome and proud addition to any neighborhood. Just like squirrels.
If I find them running around in the attic, there may be a problem here.
"If I find them running around in the attic, there may be a problem here."
Bankers prefer attics just like rats. So, if you see bankers running around your attic, you are allowed to put out the poison.
What's gonna happen when the Bandos take over 2,3,4 houses in a row or an entire block...and a couple of them are armed?
I suspect thats the point at which this is gonna get real interesting.
i find the markets runup in reaction to the Qatar bank investment announcement amusing. do u really think they haven't ALREADY bought the bank stocks they say they're going to buy?
oh to be a big player and pump my own stocks up just by talking about them...
"Circling the Drain writes:
If two vagrants try to occupy the same house, you have "Dueling Bandos." "
LOL
yesterday i exited my driveway and started heading down the street at a decent clip in a very nice neighborhood. in the middle of the street is a guy i've never seen before with golf clubs slung over his shoulder with 2 small kids walking toward us. he starts waving his arms and yelling at me so i pull over and roll the window down. he starts screaming at me for going too fast and how he's gonna kick my ass. i drive off w/o a confrontation. my wife and kids were in the car as well and we were stunned by the outburst.
my wife says its probably the son of one of our neighbors visiting (or perhaps relocating back home?). i began to think that perhaps all of us are going to start seeing strange faces in our neighborhoods, even good one, along with some pent up anger. i kept thinking i should have got out of the car and mixed it up with this jerk. but today's article on bandos makes me think this strategy could cause me harm in the long run b/c this could be the start of a more frequent occurence and fighting every fight might not be such a good idea.
It was a show: "The Riches"
I'm thinking this is going to be one hell of a year full of strong candidates when it comes time to pick the word of the year.
"fighting every fight might not be such a good idea."
You only fight the little ones. The big ones you just run over.
Elvis
believe me; it occurred to me.
Maybe the gubmint should issue every homeless person a HUD REO key. bye bye homeless problem!!!
Totally pointless aside, but in my favorite book as a kid there was a character given the name "Bando."
He turned out to be an English professor.
(No my memory isn't that good, my son read the book this year for a book report in school.)
My Side of the Mountai
idoc writes:
yesterday i exited my driveway and started heading down the street at a decent clip in a very nice neighborhood. in the middle of the street is a guy i've never seen before with golf clubs slung over his shoulder with 2 small kids walking toward us. he starts waving his arms and yelling at me so i pull over and roll the window down. he starts screaming at me for going too fast and how he's gonna kick my ass. i drive off w/o a confrontation. my wife and kids were in the car as well and we were stunned by the outburst.
my wife says its probably the son of one of our neighbors visiting (or perhaps relocating back home?). i began to think that perhaps all of us are going to start seeing strange faces in our neighborhoods, even good one, along with some pent up anger. i kept thinking i should have got out of the car and mixed it up with this jerk. but today's article on bandos makes me think this strategy could cause me harm in the long run b/c this could be the start of a more frequent occurence and fighting every fight might not be such a good idea.
idoc | 02.18.08 - 4:08 pm | #
You better be careful with those golfers. I know one that has a driver thats built to drive a 30-30 by just pushing a little button. No joke. I also know another one who can do the same with his bamboo looking walking cane. There are too many nuts out there today. Its not worth it.
A friend mentioned a variation on the squatting theme to me last week. He lives in the IE here in California. Homeless or drifters will find a house with a brown lawn or other signs of being abandoned. They will move in and party for a week or so, then move on to find yet another house before anyone really notices. There's certainly no shortage of houses to try out.
This from genesis @ ticker forum:
Closing Predictions for Today 8/14, I'll start - Dow -300, NDX under 1900.
Note: The market proceeded to rally for two straight months.
Genesis is a shill, he knows nothing. If you listen to him you will lose money. It wouldn't surprise me if he was long equities.
The more I think of it, the bigger this Bando problem likely will be. Instead of trying to keep up with the Jones, people might take on the mantra of staying down with the Bandos. Go to work? Not me, I want to be like a Bando. Take a shower? Ever see a Bando take a shower? Water the grass? Then the Bandos might think I think I'm better than them.
We must stop this impending wave of group think while we can. Otherwise, the future looks awfully dirty, lazy, and ugly.
OT-since the news appear light today i have to ask a question about last wks topic on money supply according to Lee Adler. he claims its decreasing, not increasing, and uses the following graph of declining SOMA as proof. my confusion arises from the fact that i think he's focusing on the wrong parameter, SOMA. i think that the rising top total line supports the fact that the Fed has been pumping money into the system resulting in inflation in commodities and assets. what do u guys think?
Fed Eunuchs Reveal True Selves In Technicolor | The Wall Street Examiner
Many homeless people have serious mental health problems and self medicate with street drugs and alcohol.A lot of them also have drug resistant TB,Hepatitis and AIDs.They do not make good neighbors,and punching someone in the mouth who has Hep-c is not advisable.
Tom Stone,
The accusation that the homeless have other problems that lead to their homelessness is both shocking and absurd.
I'll be back later. I'm going to start building my bunker!
"Abandominiums" will be in the running for new word of the year. Brilliant!
Tom Stone,
Thankfully, some enterprising individual (prolly Rob Dawg) has already come up with a website where you can report your neighbors who are actually Hep-C bandos that leave floaters in the loo.
http://www.rottenneighbor.com/
> IMHO you should post on the S&P story that Sandy linked on the last thread. Could be the last straw on the monoline camel's back.
Look at the date. The story is from last month, not this month.
Instead of the Foreclosure Bus Tour, maybe a Bando Bus Tour is in the future? A few bucks here, a few bucks there, and a business is begun.
I still think the govt. could put great use to subsidizing Section 8 for these abandoned houses. Lots of hurting people in lots of hurting industries could use a little subsidizing. Nature abhors a vacuum, after all. Fill those houses up.
I am starting to think that some new housemates may be in order for many folk: Misters Smith and Wesson, for example.
Yeesh... this Bando thing is starting to sound way too much like something out of some grimy, dismal, dystopic cyper-punk future. All we need now is cyberware, etc.
These cracksheads are using foreclosed properties as their personal ATMs.
Why should the middle-class (borrow-and-spend) crackheads have all the fun of using their home as an ATM?
Harsh Realty,
Already retracted per my 3:42 comment.
Bandominiums in good school districts will be especially sought after by Bandos with their Bandinos. Cause this next generation of homeless may be more characterized by their craziness as to what they could possibly afford in their previous lifestyle than the current crop under the bridges.
I wonder if cities could practice something like "triage eminent domain." I have no idea of the legality. But say you have two or three new subdivisions that are mostly empty, half trashed, and magnets for squatters.
You slap all the empty properties with public nuisance charges and, when not addressed by the owners, seize them. Move all the remaining owners in two of the subdivisions into the other one -- fix up all the vacant houses and offer them good deals and advise them on how to walk away from their current mortgages. And then doze the the other two.
That would be extreme, though satisfying.
I was reading in the AJC that if we dont get enough rain people will have to truck in the water @ $300.00 per load, plus a Dollar a mile! I like to plan ahead.
Hmm. I wonder how many trucks it will take to bring enough water to Atlanta. Even if nobody takes a bath or flushes the toilet...
Standard Chartered's Whistlejacket SIV [$7.15 billion ] May Default
Standard Chartered's Whistlejacket SIV May Default (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
California is just such a trend setter...so remember that they did state budget busting before it was cool!
Schwarzenegger signs budget cuts, warns more to come
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Saturday signed six budget-cutting bills that will close the projected $3.3 billion shortfall in the state budget this fiscal year, but warned that more spending cuts would be needed.
The spending cuts were approved by the Democratic-led California legislature on Friday and will take a combined budget shortfall for California's current and next fiscal year, which had been expected to to top $14 billion, down to just over $7 billion.
[snip]
James Bednar, were you able to determine if it was NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, that left the property? He may have just been attending to the residence, watching it appreciate while he was there.
Did you notice that roughly 1/2 of metropolitan areas showed price appreciation in Q4. Really! Don't believe me (and don't let that case-shiller fool you)?
Real Estate Data, Statistics, Demographics, & Trends: NAR Current News
Hmm.... Maybe we need to relax the requirements of the Law of Adverse Possession. Just pay the property taxes for three years and you're the owner!
You are so lucky you didn't get out of the car.
I can't believe you almost fell for the golf clubs and two kids trick.
Old as the hills among "los gitanos bandos."
Those kids would have cut your throat for a couple of quarters.
John Stark writes:
I was reading in the AJC that if we dont get enough rain people will have to truck in the water @ $300.00 per load, plus a Dollar a mile! I like to plan ahead.
Hmm. I wonder how many trucks it will take to bring enough water to Atlanta. Even if nobody takes a bath or flushes the toilet...
John Stark | 02.18.08 - 4:55 pm | #
Please refer to posts @ 3:25pm & 3:30pm. TY
Id be in the water trucking business if it were for drinking and bathing!
Yeesh... this Bando thing is starting to sound way too much like something out of some grimy, dismal, dystopic cyper-punk future. All we need now is cyberware, etc.
Pondering the Mess,
Don't be afraid of our sci-fi future.. we should be so lucky to see big, exciting changes in the U.S.
Sadly, I doubt there will be anything as neat as roving bands of bandos taking over entire blocks. But, I can dream.. i suppose.
idoc,
This Lee Adler person at WallStreetExaminer seems to be just filling up space. As far as the FRB is concerned
, the monetary base has decreased from $824 billion in August to $821 billion as of Jan 30th.
And, if you look at the TAF... the amount of money banks have borrowed to cover reserves is about equal to the reported decrease in (the humorously named) SOMA... that's why the monetary base is not showing a drastic decrease.
I don't really know what his point is... guess he's complaining that the Fed decreased bank margin?
Also, see my link above... non-borrowed reserves are projected to increase from -$8.7 billion on Jan 30th to -$18 billion on Feb 13th.
Just look at my non-sense blog post about the TAF.. the chart I posted.. just extend the red line below the -$10,000 mark.. and past the legend on the chart that explains what each line is.
The fed seems to be temporarily nationalizing the banks in the US. But, no one can really post on the TAF stuff since, it's hard to tell what this all means in an exact sense.
Bando Realty, a division of Ramen Corp.
"We'll put you in the home you don't have to afford."
"do u really think they haven't ALREADY bought the bank stocks they say they're going to buy?"
Of course they have!!!! Let them run the banks up. I'll be long SKF after the emotional buying and the panic short covering. I Love this game!!!
"Abandominiums" will be in the running for new word of the year. Brilliant!
Yeah, that's a pretty good one. I'm going to start using that frequently in everyday conversation.
Hmm. I wonder how many trucks it will take to bring enough water to Atlanta. Even if nobody takes a bath or flushes the toilet...
John Stark | 02.18.08 - 4:55 pm | #
I can take a stab at some rough numbers...
Typical OTR load limit is (IIRC) 35 tons.
So we'll work with a number of 8,750 gal/truck.
Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2000
As of 2000, GA was withdrawing 1,246mm Gal per day serving an estimated 6.730mm persons.
Avg usage per person per day was 185.1/gal.
Census estimates per 2006
This Georgia metro area (Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta) was the nations ninth largest as of July 1, 2006 with a population of 5.1 million.
I will reduce that 5.1 million number by 18% (for those not on public supply) giving a rough public supply base of 4.182 million persons.
If all the water used by that metro area had to be trucked in, that would be 774.26mm gal/day.
I come up with ~88,500 truck loads per day. I can't even imagine the additional traffic that would generate.
A couple of pipelines woild be a much better solution.
energyecon writes:
For years Boston's Mayor Menino lashed at the banking community to make homes loans within his city, much of which is redlined because of the low end communities. The prices were insane to begin with, but with idiot credit bullied for by the mayor, the fools ran up the prices. The mayor said nothing. Smug that his tax base was increasing daily.
Now the chickens have come home to roost. the foreclosures in some sections of town are so bad the mayor was on tv bad mouthing the same banks he arm twisted yesterday and showed the city cleaning the streets and getting ready to buy out the houses.
Guess he needs the lawsuit money to buy out the sh*tholes caused by the city's own folly. Plenty of blame to go around, but somehow the government officals do not seen to have a mirror to look into. Then again, I do not think Satin can see his reflection either..
We have been waiting for the final act. It seems to be starting. Bandos for goodness sakes!
Keith...OT...You mention Mitch Snyder...He was a good friend of mine back in the 70's and early 80's...I spent quality time with him in DC jail among other adventures....He would have been absolutly agast at how our society has evolved during the last 15 years...The massive mis-allocation of money to build McMansions while people still live on the streets in DC....I was just visiting SW DC a few weeks back and was down near the waterfront...It was amazing how many people are living underneath cardboard under the SW freeway...You would not believe...
Mitch had his issues...Believe me, I disagreed with him on a number of things....but he was one of the closest people I know to a living saint....
Bandos.... I seem to remember something called Urban Homesteading. Some cities with lots of abandoned housing and HUD were selling houses for $100 as long as the new "owner" brought the house up to code and lived in it 1 or 2 years. It might be something to solve the problem.
the evolution of "hope"-
Bush Finally Found a Good `Ad Man' in Paulson: Caroline Baum - Bloomberg.com
About fifteen years ago my friend, Murray, bought a few springs in North Georgia to supply his bottled water business. At the time I thought he was daft.
It seems that Murray is one of my smartest friends.
Hoocouldanode....
Bernanke Turns 10-Year Notes Into Losers
Bernanke Turns Notes Into Losers as Refinancing Rises (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Pondering the Mess writes:
I am starting to think that some new housemates may be in order for many folk: Misters Smith and Wesson, for example.
Sounds more like a new business opportunity for the chainlink fence rental business. Although it might be cheaper to buy the fence to keep out Bandos since the house won't be selling anytime soon.
eli
Adler is trying to address the whole inflation/deflation debate. many think the Fed is pumping liquidity into the system and they pt to M3 as evidence. Adler begs to differ and points to this graph and decreasing SOMA as evidence against excess Fed liquidity. i don't buy it and am in the M3 camp which is why i'm bullish on commodities and PM's.
he looks at that graph of monetary supply and sees decreasing SOMA. i look at it and see steadily increasing top line monetary growth of inflationary proportions.
(a non prime time rant, please excuse)
it's tempting to think the system is outta control, but i guess instead that,...ALL GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN!!.
name an elected official who is willing to belly up to the microphone and tell the american people it is:... time to sacrifice,... save,... buy victory bonds,... pay down debt, live in a sustainable rather than a debt laden and over-growth society,....who?
if our mainstream leaders were to tell the truth,the rabble would scream and scratch their eyes out
just two have been so daring that i can think of... one small dem from cleveland ohio, and one squeaky repub from lake jackson texas...that's it!
most americans have lived way beyond their means ...less than 10% of the worlds population consuming more than 3/4ths the worlds resources.
we like to be told; it is morning in amercia, remember?
that the best way to defeat the terrorist is to shop, remember?
20 years ago a presidential candidate said as a matter of nationl security, we need a 50cent gas tax to fund alternative fuels research and was excoriated, remember?
yes folks. this is not investment banking gone haywire. THIS IS THE Plan.
America will shrink its insatiable appetite to consume all, but no leaders will have to bear the bad news... no, not one.
instead the money changers at the temple have been allowed to run wild, to excess, and gorge themselves one last time, until collapse... one last great roman orgy...think of it as the mardi gras before the fast.
and then the pograms will begin. lets see who shall they blame this time... don't worry im certain we will find our untermenchen. the real criminals will escape.
i suspect the elite are prepared for the next step.
The strange thing is that I had similar - although more benign - problems almost a decade ago. Real estate sales were slow here in the late 90's - and when people had to move - or were on the verge of being foreclosed - they leased their houses to "house sitters". Who were supposed to be great - but in reality it was usually a group of 4-5 unrelated single adults who didn't like to do maintenance - but liked to party late in the night. We wound up with "house sitters" on both sides of our house at one point. And it drove me nuts.
At this point - I know the people on one side aren't going anywhere until they retire. Think the people on the other side plan to stay put too. Don't know how the husband's business is doing (he worked as an appraiser for a bank) - but the wife sells medical equipment - like artificial hips - so I suspect she is doing fine. And her parents have money. So I think I am safe for now.
BTW - one reason the banks can't sell the houses immediately is - at least here in Florida - you need a judgment of foreclosure to get title to the house. Even if the proceeding isn't contested - the court process can take a while. And many foreclosures are being contested - there's a whole unit at legal aid devoted to fighting them (your tax dollars at work) - which can wind up dragging things out for years.
Ray On the Farm - What county do you live in? I really liked your message about your trips to the "big city" - i.e., Gainesville (smile). Roby
idoc-
I agree (with Adler) that the Fed isn't pumping liquidity for over a year now, though I wouldn't say they are really tightening.
I am still bullish on PM's, have been bullish on commodities, but am not certain what they will do over the next few years. Long term they are going to the moon unless complete societal breakdown occurs first.
I think of it as M3/M1 being an indicator of leverage in the system. Right now debt is beginning to be destroyed through defaults, but overall leverage is still increasing.
mock turtle-
I agree with you. This is the plan.
There's a lot of BS out there, but I believe Russo when he claims that David Rockerfeller told him that the goal was to have an rfid chip in every american.
I also believe that this whole mess is a planned precursor to a new currency, either regional or global.
You can call me a kook, but I want to be grouped alongside that kook Andrew Jackson, who had written on his tombstone, "I killed the bank".
SweetHomeKilla
so how do u interpret the graph. i think if u follow the top line of the mountain representing all of the monetary base components, its been increasing over the past yr.
The Bando's ballad:
Oh give me a home,
Where foreclosures soar
And the heat and the water are free,
Where seldom is heard,
An owner's word,
And the guy next to me,
Is a Bando, too.
micronin127
But you're heartless. And not too prescient.
Did you finish your post without realizing that what you describe as criminal merely fills the vacuum of what hasn't worked and still isn't working?
I'm in the rental house business. I've had homeless persons move into vancants on occasion. They can and will do thosuands of dollars in damage in 2-3 days.
Michael,
Blaming the homeless for your parties is not right. Someday the man is going to catch you.
idoc-
I was asleep during Fed Res stats 101.
That graph certain shows a yoy increase, but I'm not sure if those are the "right" components to look at. I've been watching "Currency in Circulation", which stood at 819B at the beginning of 2007, and is at 813B according to the last H41 release. It's essentially been flat for the last year. I think a certain amount of increase in repos, TAF, etc is needed just to offset the declining willingness of banks to lend, and their loss of capital.
Either way they aren't openly inflating with increasing amounts of cash. It appears they are just trying to keep things moving forward for the time being. I'm still suspect that they may have started to covertly monetize the government debt, but obviously cannot prove it. It is obvious that the "traditional" buyers are no longer buying.
reality show
Flip That Turd (Bando edition)
On the point of banks' taking their lumps on REO portfolios:
Things are gonna have to break soon, these vacant homes are gonna cost so much more in vandalism and other liabilities. But, like all great dumbshit bureaucracies, gotta take a kick in the face to wake up and start doing more intelligent things.
I'm in the rental house business. I've had homeless persons move into vancants on occasion. They can and will do thosuands of dollars in damage in 2-3 days.
Reminds me of a great quote from a real old-timer in the business referring to his foray into public housing. He had busted his butt rehabbing a rundown project and it turned out quite nice... until the dirtbags moved in. Within months the place was a shambles. This is what he said:
They consume properties.
Like bipedal termites or something. They consume properties. Great visual. I always remember that comment.
But you're heartless. And not too prescient.
Did you finish your post without realizing that what you describe as criminal merely fills the vacuum of what hasn't worked and still isn't working?
===
No. I am comfortable with calling it a criminal act to squat in a home.
What might appear heartless is really not. Am I heartless to have concerns about the greater economy? Should I just go along with the Robin Hood bleeding heart sentiment of this thread?
My children are 6 and 9 and if I were going to try to explain this to them, I would probably say that though it is tragic that there are people without homes, that it is still wrong to take things that do not belong to you.
I'm not saying that society does not need to do more to fight poverty and homelessness. But each abandoned home is already a tragedy whether the result of job loss, divorce, or simply someone choosing to exercise a put and stiffing an investor who very well could be a pension fund that thousands of retirees are depending upon to remain solvent.
The collateral still belongs to someone and it should be preserved as best it can until if can be sold to the next owner.
Opportunistic squatters are criminals. I don't really have anymore to say about this and I'm sure many disagree with me.
"Opportunistic squatters are criminals. I don't really have anymore to say about this and I'm sure many disagree with me.
micronin127"
Just FWIW - I agree with you. Roby
"Abandominiums" will be in the running for new word of the year. Brilliant!
How about condemniniums?
I don't think anyone would dispute that what 'bandos' do is against the law.
The economic question is how to minimize this risk, which has been present since the first REO was recorded under the reign of Marcus Aurelius in 160 A.D.
What is the cause of this?
a) field services companies are in thinner supply than decent plumbers during the boom.
b) servicers are not adequately staffed with experienced staff to handle the volume of REOs.
c) servicers are sandbagging REO inventory in hopes that the market will improve.
I think it's mostly a, some b, and much as some want to believe so - not c at all.
How about..."Bandomonium"?!
Opportunistic squatters are criminals.
Okay. So who has the right of enforcement? Only the owner of the property can say whether the alleged 'squatter' has any right to be there. Therefore the owner of the property is responsible? And we should apply legal remedies to the banks/ holders of the deeds?
"I don't think anyone would dispute that what 'bandos' do is against the law. "
Sure it is. But the reason why bandos may be a growth industry is yet another variation on this moral hazard bit. You fund a real estate industry with irresponsible loans and pool those loans into rotten securities. And yet when the loans fail and the homes go vacant, the financial types who take possession of the homes are ill-prepared to protect them, to the the ultimate harm of the community.
Screw that. Communities should pass laws, step in, protect the properties and keep out bandos -- and bill the mortgage holders for every dime, with penalties.
I think the drop in M1 is the real reason for the 1.25% panic cut. That's quite a plunge after 1/1/08. The Fed has obviously decided for some years now that M1 is its prime target. It does pretty well for the CPI, that's for sure, while M3 is a total bust for the CPI. Some don't agree with the M1 target but I think we're all honest enough to admit nobody knows whether M1, M2 or M3 is the best measure right now.
Commodity shortages are mostly being driven by genuine shortages. The earth is only so big and we're really starting to push some limits now with industrialization spreading from 1 billion first worlders to 4 billion or so in BRIC and similar countries.
"Screw that. Communities should pass laws, step in, protect the properties and keep out bandos -- and bill the mortgage holders for every dime, with penalties."
First of all it is "Bandos," not "bandos." You won't refer to Cher as "cher," would you?
Secondly, to bill mortgage holders for every dime, with penalties, sounds great on its face, but, ultimately, those mortgage holders are the US gov't, and, as such, you and me will end up paying those penalties. I'd rather spend my money on fast cars and loose women or, if those are not available, beef jerky.
I prefer a 12 year old single malt aged in Spanish oak to beef jerky, fast cars or loose women (that last, I've found ways to pick up without paying). Prefer any of the above to buying my share of the shitpile.
The lenders made this mess, let them lie in it... with the Bandos and the midnight U-Haulers.
The way to stop the bandominiums quick would be for the banks to sell the properties off at heavily reduced prices. But they're not doing that, so we've got a lot of empty homes.
Of course people will move in and squat. If you were living outside under some bridge, what would you do? Freeze in your cardboard box or kick open a basement window and camp out inside?
A few weeks back, a realtor showed me a place that had "bandominium" written all over it (in one room).
Back in the late 70's/early 80's (? can't remember the exact time period), during the Great Manhattan RE/General collapse, my sister squatted in a nice lower Manhattan apt. The whole building was full of squatters. Nice bunch of people,most had been renting in the city for years and those were the best apts. they'd ever had (ie. big and free). They started a beautiful garden in the next door lot where the building had been demolished.
Basically, they kept the neighborhood safe simply by being there. Until the city finally woke up and began selling for back taxes or less. At which point several of the squatters bought.
The banks can wake up now and sell these places for 80K or they can wait a few years and let the city take 'em over and sell them for 2K.
Either way they're losing money because that's the way they themselves set the scheme up.
"The lenders made this mess, let them lie in it... with the Bandos and the midnight U-Haulers."
They all will, but, alas, we (the tax payers) will have to clean it up. Personally, I'd rather have somebody else do it.
"The banks can wake up now and sell these places for 80K or they can wait a few years and let the city take 'em over and sell them for 2K."
The problem is that the banks who loaned on these deals already know they are going to be taken over by a bailout, so they have no incentive to do right. Their only incentive is to try to get paid salaries as long as possible.
I also believe that this whole mess is a planned precursor to a new currency, either regional or global
Yeah right. Wake me up when the UK starts using the Euro.
I say give The Bandos Credit Cards and monetize this situation for the betterment of America, after all, this is still the Ownership Society, and we need these people to own things, just like CDOs and SIVs!
Indeed - perhaps the gubermint needs to issue "Save Amerika" credit cards to Bandos so they can furnish their new squatters' paradise. After all, we are what we consume, or something like that, and consumption is the most important thing we produce!?
With the earlier comparisons to bankers and vermin, and how Bandos "consume" housing, I can't believe that this video has not yet been referenced.
If bandos are common criminals, what are the bankers & brokers who got us into this mess?
Personally I'd rather have the widowed accident victim on disability move BACK into his house across the street from me, despite being forclosed on, than have it stripped by little thieves after the big bank thieves took it from him.
If it stays vacant with the power off much longer it's not going to be worth a thing. This is still the rainy season. Without the sump pump working, that house is going to rot.
And I gotta say, if we had national healthcare, the poor guy would still be in his house because he wouldn't have needed to take a 2nd mortgage to pay medical bills.