Maricopa County (Phoenix) sent out the new tax assessments last week. Mine went down about 15%. Other people I've talked to are getting similar reductions.
I'm surprised they're admitting this when the city, county and state all need money so badly. I figured at least one more year of increases on the rationale that they're still catching up with the bubble prices.
PPI out and it is terrible. Inflation is now rearing its dreaded head and grinning at the Fed. Fed is shocked and has awe on its face. What to do? Lower interest rates in the face of raging inflation? Ben's helicopter isn't much help with this.
It's 11:30 EST I write this. Historic declines in home prices announced today, along with much worse than expected consumer confidence and an absolutely shocking PPI number.
Result? SP 500 is up four points. The downside risk to US equities is just breathtaking now. But because the Fed has forced folks to either accept substantial real negative rates of interest in fixed income, that money now is forced into risky assets (equities) to try to stay ahead of inflation.
This is a hell of a price to pay to prop up the stock market short term. I used to think we were in for a grinding 2000-03 bear market, but no more. A 1987 type-event is coming soon. When the 10 year starts to back up (and how can it not with PPI coming in at nearly 7%?), look out.
Pension funds, retirees and those facing retirement soon are simply being led to slaughter.
Soooo, with OFHEO onboard with this declining values thingy, will NAR's Yun accuse THEM of having some sort of vested interest in falling markets, like the fraud he essentially directed at Shiller?
And, if OFHEO calls it a decline, jeebus, how bad is it?
The sane and conservative reaction to an aircraft (the stock market) with dire engine trouble is to regain control of the aircraft and try to find a relatively safe place to crash-land.
These clowns are trying to reach the airport, and are gaining altitude to do so.
Excuse me, Stewardess, are there any parachutes on this plane?
I tend to agree with you in principle on a rapid drop in stocks when the market gets a real understanding of the weakness of the E in forward PE.
Watching the market lately though I have tended to see a move back and forth in the market. As you can see GOOG is way down on an up day. The upswing in retailers and homebuilders came at the cost of tech such as apple and google.
I'm wondering if the REQUIREMENT by so many to buy and hold stocks is artificially prop up the market. The average joe has just kept on buying bi-weekly in their retirment funds meaning there are guaranteed buyers. Also so many fund managers simply can't just go all cash because it's not in their prospectus. So there is a constant search for the safest stocks (those with the least downside). It seems reasonable that many thought that HB's and retailers had the least downside risk and thus went there. This at the expense of the high flyers as they sold.
With this amount of money that has to be in the market, can you really have a huge market crash? Perhaps the real pain from owning stocks is not a sudden crash but years and years of underperfomance which frankly is much worse since it's like a frog in boiling water. The average retiree will just retire with a lump sum, never knowing their actual return, never knowing exactly how much they put in, never knowing that they likely would have done better in risk free CD's.
The index, which is
based on data from home sales, was 1.3 percent lower on a seasonally-adjusted basis
in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter of 2007
Result? SP 500 is up four points. The downside risk to US equities is just breathtaking now. But because the Fed has forced folks to either accept substantial real negative rates of interest in fixed income, that money now is forced into risky assets (equities) to try to stay ahead of inflation.
This is just typical interal stuff that occurs in bear markets. Gotta clear out all the shorts before heading back down unless we get some major shock.
Also as we get higher and higher there's more bears that are going to run into margin calls and be forced to buy stocks, causing more margin calls... so if the rally can keep on going it might gain momentum.
what is it we're never supposed to be betting against? Because I'm still convinced one good supernova could take it out, whatever the bloody hell it and its flag lapel pin are.
There's been conversation here over the past several months of the Fed tap dancing like crazy.
Your analogy as to the airplane is excellent. Having pretty much checked out of the market last year, it is helpful in explaining to the better half why we shouldn't get back in RIGHT NOW.
Wow... they're really on top of their game.
Are we gonna need a freekin' ubernerd on HPIs? There are a number of reasons that they don't always jive.
It shouldn't surpise any of you that the OFHEO drop wasn;t as sharp as Case-Shiller's.
This might help:
http://www.ofheo.gov/media/research/OFHEOSPCS12008.pdf
When the hell is this going to hit Manhattan?
wallster
Bite your tongue
Prices stay put til I get a summer rental
Maricopa County (Phoenix) sent out the new tax assessments last week. Mine went down about 15%. Other people I've talked to are getting similar reductions.
I'm surprised they're admitting this when the city, county and state all need money so badly. I figured at least one more year of increases on the rationale that they're still catching up with the bubble prices.
PPI out and it is terrible. Inflation is now rearing its dreaded head and grinning at the Fed. Fed is shocked and has awe on its face. What to do? Lower interest rates in the face of raging inflation? Ben's helicopter isn't much help with this.
albrt, when they lower the assessed value, can't they increase the rate?
They'll get the money one way or the other.
When the hell is this going to hit Manhattan?
When Vikram decides that not-rocking-the-boat isn't cutting it and lays off Citi workers by the boatload.
"Welcome to the party, pal"
It's 11:30 EST I write this. Historic declines in home prices announced today, along with much worse than expected consumer confidence and an absolutely shocking PPI number.
Result? SP 500 is up four points. The downside risk to US equities is just breathtaking now. But because the Fed has forced folks to either accept substantial real negative rates of interest in fixed income, that money now is forced into risky assets (equities) to try to stay ahead of inflation.
This is a hell of a price to pay to prop up the stock market short term. I used to think we were in for a grinding 2000-03 bear market, but no more. A 1987 type-event is coming soon. When the 10 year starts to back up (and how can it not with PPI coming in at nearly 7%?), look out.
Pension funds, retirees and those facing retirement soon are simply being led to slaughter.
The place for great investment advice.
longorshortcapital.com
Soooo, with OFHEO onboard with this declining values thingy, will NAR's Yun accuse THEM of having some sort of vested interest in falling markets, like the fraud he essentially directed at Shiller?
And, if OFHEO calls it a decline, jeebus, how bad is it?
A: Real bad.
The sane and conservative reaction to an aircraft (the stock market) with dire engine trouble is to regain control of the aircraft and try to find a relatively safe place to crash-land.
These clowns are trying to reach the airport, and are gaining altitude to do so.
Excuse me, Stewardess, are there any parachutes on this plane?
First,
Did the April crude contract spike up over $100/bbl at the same time the Dow broke out?
Dman that IBM swings some muscle!
Right - bad news everywhere you look.
Market is up! WTF?
This is going to seem like nothing if mortgage rates stay in the stratosphere.
this # just got revised up on my ECO screen from -1.3% to +0.1% - anyone else see this?
wtf??
Did the April crude contract spike up over $100/bbl at the same time the Dow broke out?
Also, if it keeps up its trajectory the US peso could hit new lows soon.
First Payment Default,
I tend to agree with you in principle on a rapid drop in stocks when the market gets a real understanding of the weakness of the E in forward PE.
Watching the market lately though I have tended to see a move back and forth in the market. As you can see GOOG is way down on an up day. The upswing in retailers and homebuilders came at the cost of tech such as apple and google.
I'm wondering if the REQUIREMENT by so many to buy and hold stocks is artificially prop up the market. The average joe has just kept on buying bi-weekly in their retirment funds meaning there are guaranteed buyers. Also so many fund managers simply can't just go all cash because it's not in their prospectus. So there is a constant search for the safest stocks (those with the least downside). It seems reasonable that many thought that HB's and retailers had the least downside risk and thus went there. This at the expense of the high flyers as they sold.
With this amount of money that has to be in the market, can you really have a huge market crash? Perhaps the real pain from owning stocks is not a sudden crash but years and years of underperfomance which frankly is much worse since it's like a frog in boiling water. The average retiree will just retire with a lump sum, never knowing their actual return, never knowing exactly how much they put in, never knowing that they likely would have done better in risk free CD's.
I'd like to pre-sell a NEC on a house i have'nt yet bought in the sac rice region...
An buy oil ,which is now trading handsomely over 100
The index, which is
based on data from home sales, was 1.3 percent lower on a seasonally-adjusted basis
in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter of 2007
Are prices seasonally adjusted as well?
Result? SP 500 is up four points. The downside risk to US equities is just breathtaking now. But because the Fed has forced folks to either accept substantial real negative rates of interest in fixed income, that money now is forced into risky assets (equities) to try to stay ahead of inflation.
This is just typical interal stuff that occurs in bear markets. Gotta clear out all the shorts before heading back down unless we get some major shock.
Also as we get higher and higher there's more bears that are going to run into margin calls and be forced to buy stocks, causing more margin calls... so if the rally can keep on going it might gain momentum.
Never bet against the US economy.
Ever.
ac,
You are confusing the house at the casino with the US economy!
ac,
Thanks for pointing out the DX looks to be retesting the all time low soon... you think it will bounce off of 75 again?
what is it we're never supposed to be betting against? Because I'm still convinced one good supernova could take it out, whatever the bloody hell it and its flag lapel pin are.
I think that the market will tank soon, sure we will see rallies but our highs and lows will be lower.
Marcus Aurelius @ 11:55:
There's been conversation here over the past several months of the Fed tap dancing like crazy.
Your analogy as to the airplane is excellent. Having pretty much checked out of the market last year, it is helpful in explaining to the better half why we shouldn't get back in RIGHT NOW.
I'm starting to consider jumping into one of the proshares ultra short funds after today. (with my "casino cash" as I call it)
we're starting to get back to the S*P levels of the end of Jan, before the last leg down...
now let's see here...
short the financials (SKF)
or short the S&P (SDS)
or short the Russell (TWM)
such tough decisions.
but this looks like a dead catter to me....
DX below 75, intra-day low is 74.843, not quite the low of 74.484 from back in November...yet?