Rule of thumb, when there is blood in the street buy, but dont be fooled by going into battle and being part of a fight, wait for all the dead to be carted away, then look for gold! Lots of time here!
As you recall NBC Radio was a hot new technology and lots of people in The Great Depression that had homes and radios, were able to listen to news about depressing things, so maybe we are the cusp of something here?
Dang, that brings back some good memories. Summer 1974.
Who says recessions are tough? Dad bought a new station wagon. I played baseball. And then there was Tina and Jenny and cut-off shorts. This recession is gonna be awesome!
Hopefully we'll get the 250 bps emergency rate cut before the market opens tomorrow so permabears with those short ETFs won't have a chance to cash in.
This is very surrealistic and should be made into a movie of the week ASAP while people still televisions:
Parts from the opening script: Bush and Congress are scrambling to take action as fears mount that a severe housing slump and painful credit crisis could cause people to close their wallets and businesses to put a lid on hiring, throwing the country into its first recession since 2001.
"Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," Bush said.
Can someone state a "rule of thumb" to help interpret these numbers?
Nylund | 01.21.08 - 7:37 pm | #
I agree... so a neg 450 on the DOW futures corresponds to what? Minus 450 on the DOW next day? Minus 900? I realize these are pretty good predictors of near term movement but how accurate both in magnitude and timing?
I know nothing (nothing, nothing - a la Sgt Schultz) when it comes to this part of the market.
Remember this little nugget from October which at the time seemed a bit dangerous to me?:
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The New York Stock Exchange said it will no longer impose curbs on computer-program trading that were put in place after the crash of 1987, claiming they're no longer as effective in damping swings in prices.
No curbs in place could mean some real fun tomorrow!
As crazy as this sounds, I don't think this is the Big Down in this bear market. That usually comes closer to the end. But the size and strength of this down says that the Big One may be enormous, when it comes, and that it could be up to a year away. It also says that there could be a whiplash rally in a few days.
I don't know what's going to happen. I just feel in my bones that there is nothing out there capable of providing a solid floor to this bear market for about the next year.
"Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," Bush said.
The fundamental real problem we have with our economy is that we over-consume relative to the amount we invest. Barring continued charity from overseas, long-term you can't keep consuming more than you produce.
The fact that Bush is talking about promoting further consumption shows that he doesn't get it.
Very worrisome when our politicians add 2 and 2 and get 5.
I agree... so a neg 450 on the DOW futures corresponds to what? Minus 450 on the DOW next day?
Yes.
More precisely, were the U.S. markets to magically open right now, those futures tell you where the Dow would start. (If not, there would be a trivial arbitrage opportunity, and the market does not offer those lightly.)
But seriously, this is just depressing. Especially when I think about how many people I really care about that I utterly could not convince that we were heading this way, even though I tried for months.
Now the trick will be figuring out when it is a good buying opportunity. I think I'll start putting back in when we are down 30%, and keep putting, whether we are heading up or down from there. I thought that was a year away, but seeing as tomorrow we'll have already done a cumulative 20%, maybe Im early and should wait for a real slaughterhouse. Already this much carnage and the real s(*t hasn't even started hitting the fan. (layoffs, 7% unemployment, 50% falls in house prices)
Thousands of panicked retail investors have overwhelmed the website of retail broker Commsec, crashing the system as the sharemarket opened today.
As shares continued to tick downwards for a record 12th day, Commsec customers found themselves unable to access their account on the internet between 10.10am and 10.30am.
"As crazy as this sounds, I don't think this is the Big Down in this bear market. That usually comes closer to the end. But the size and strength of this down says that the Big One may be enormous, when it comes, and that it could be up to a year away. It also says that there could be a whiplash rally in a few days."
I feel the same way, rich. The markets couldn't possibly be more treacherous right now, whether you're long or short.
And tomorrow the dollar will most likely do a freefall against the yen.
Nothing to do- I put in some low, but not totally ridiculous buy orders on my homebuilder shorts. I suspect that the market makers are totally screwed due to options expiration delivering shares and will be caught with a neutral book that they won't want to sully with fresh shares.
hence they will reach deep down into the buy orders, all five of them, LOL;-}
Nice money if you happen to be leaning the right way.
seriously, what can the PPT and the fed do? Keep it orderly, and not much else. Now we see how deep the hedge funds are leaning short.
It's totally common. I guarantee any of you with Ameritrade when you try to access the site tomorrow will get skunked. It's happened both of the last two times we had super heavy volume, and tomorrow's will swamp those combined. Ask Ameritrade each time and they will tell you theyve done something about it, and still, they havent. My money says you wont even be able to get your account balances for the first hour of trading. So, man the phones, and start calling early, since you'll wait to get through there. Im planning to just watch on the sidelines and hope for now major whipsawing. Pathetic...
In my opinion, the Dow is a worthless indicator of market strength or weakness, it's price weighted and as alluded to previously, serves little purpose. I could also provide a good argument for the ability to move the index based on previous points.
As to futures, you must balance the reported figure versus the fair value close, this, "in theory" is supposed to represent the potential strength or weakness on the open.
I like to follow the S&P and Russell 2000, 2's and 10's.
Bloomberg now reflects movement again from Fridays close-
No Paul, not just the poor. Also the wanna be rich, who thought they were better off than they were. They're the next big wave of pain coming to a theatre near you after next Christmas.
Basically, the entire world is saying, the stock market will crash tomorrow, and there isn't a thing you can do about it.
All I know is i'm getting to work early tomorrow and getting the few things I need to get done done, so I can witness the carnage.
I think after tomorrow its gonna be tougher trading if you're short - Jan thus far has been easy money - a second crash is a real possiblity, as is an otherwordly rally......
If you're short and in cash tomorrow, before the day is over, you should think taking some of those gains off the table for a bit and being heavier weighted to cash. But of course, tomorrow has so much shock and awe potential ahead in so many ways, it will be just jaw dropping to watch.
Was anyone living in LA during the Rodney King riots? I was
The day after the riots, with my school closed, I went to the Federal Building to get my passport in preparation for going off to Japan later that year.
The change you are seeing is relative to fair value. Futures pricing is pretty straight forward. Right now the front month is March (the contract will expire the 3rd Friday in March).
Fair value pricing is simply the cost to carry the hedge from now til then. If a future contract has a notional value of say $250,000 (just a number for illustrative purposes)- or that amount of the index then to price it out you'd figure out your cost to buy all of the stocks in the index in the right amounts to equal the value of the futures contract. You sell 1 future and hedge your risk with the long stock basket. Keep in mind that you have an opportunity cost - so whats the interest you would have earned on the cash spent on buying the stocks - less dividends received by the stocks held. Add this opportunity cost to the current index spot price to get a sense for what the future will trade for - this is the fair value price. Equity futures trade for a spread over the cash or spot price of the index. The spread gets less and less as you approach expiration.
all this fun because a few poor people in the US tried to buy houses
more like millions of people borrowed trillions of dollars that they won't be able to repay.
Previously here I've said the bubble blow off 2002-2006 lending was 4 Trillion, but if one normalizes that to the 2000-2001 lending plateau that would be TWO TRILLION of dead money walking.
IOW, the total lending 2003-2007 that exceeded the (already high) 2000-2001 levels is about $2T. Doing the usual loss-mitigation calculations on that is still HUNDREDS of billions of vaporized capital.
I sent you the 10-year S&P500 Chart and showing the current level (it is now down to 1258, ten minutes ago when I checked based on cash fair value). Please feel free to post because it is highly illuminating.
"Was anyone living in LA during the Rodney King riots? I was."
MTH,
I was working 3 blocks from Florence and Normandy. Rode my motorcycle that day. Former Marine. White. It scared me worse than some fucker that was taking pot shots at us in the PI. Escort to 405 to go home...Still sucked...
Chris
Yes this is starting to give me the creeps also...
What's worrying me at the moment is the momentum and how it will play out in Washington. Our politicians pass incredibly BAD legislation whenever the public is panicked. (re: Patriot Act, AUMF, etc)
I moved half of my 401(k)into short term cash this morning...maybe I should have moved all of it...........
uhh, you do know that your order won't get filled until 3:45PM tomorrow, since the market was closed today ...
Thanks Mike in LI - I don't get it but that's not your fault (I need to work some numbers and do some more reading first... but then maybe my time would be better spent cutting wood & planning a garden next summer [;)]...
Thousands of panicked retail investors have overwhelmed the website of retail broker Commsec, crashing the system as the sharemarket opened today.
As shares continued to tick downwards for a record 12th day, Commsec customers found themselves unable to access their account on the internet between 10.10am and 10.30am.
thats enough for me to want to be a permabear forever (redundant). WTF with all these gimmicks to limit selling?
I'm listening to Bloomberg TV Asia and the anchor can't contain himself. Keeps saying things like OUCH! Very funny but sad
Blonde Vigilante
I have CBNC Worldwide on; I can get most channels so do you have a channel/satellite/TP number for the one you are watching ?
It was weird this morning ( Mountain Time ) - there's this big event happening and the normal CNBC and CNBCW stuck to their holiday programming. So I switched to BITV on channel 203/250|110/x for the first time in my life and they were doing fine ( awful number of ads though) showing the US futures until 9:30 EST came along and OFF they went switching over to the cash market - which is of course closed ! Idiots ! no sense of relevance it seems.
Was anyone living in LA during the Rodney King riots? I was
I was living in Culver City, at the western end of one of the streets out of South Central (Slauson Ave) and it was very surreal going from watching the really bad stuff going down on TV, to looking out over the LA basin and seeing the plumes of smoke, to seeing a couple of the neighborhood businesses get looted, to watching the Fox Hills Mall being surrounded by National Guardsmen in Humvees and M-16s the next day.
Watching this happening in the markets does give me that same rhyming feeling.
Agree with Average Joe - we blew past the point on Friday at which I checked out of most of the market last week. Still have some money in two equity funds but only those managed by guys w/excellent and long-term experience. They'll take hits for sure but over twenty years, survive. Everything else went off of the table and I took flak from friends for being an alarmist...
OK, so stocks will fall 5% tomorrow. yawn
"Markets will fluctuate"
jus me | 01.21.08 - 8:33 pm | #
And rich could well be right - that tomorrow could be a 'nuthin burger'... with the real downdraft a year from now and catching a lot more people by surprise.
I mean this thing sure has had a lot of hype... if there is a PPT man they got time to get their ducks in a row for tomorrow. I'm not a big believer in the PPT but markets do tend to balance... and when 'events are orchestrated' up or down it makes me highly suspicious.
don't lose sleep over this. This is nothing compared to 9-11, it'll be a tough period, we'll wash out some of the asshole hedge funds (couldn't happen to nicer assholes), growth will slow/decline, and we'll move forward.
Don't let the end of the world crowd get to you. (:-
The more I look at it, the more I like it. I do think it's good. The fact is, no matter how closely I study it, no matter how I take it apart, no matter how I break it down...it remains consistent.
I wish you were here to see it! -- KC
This is my prayer for the bottom to be in, at least for today in Asia.
Here's some numbers to hopefully make it easier to understand.
The emini $5 Dow Future is valued such that every point in the Dow is worth $5. So if the Dow is at 12,000 then one $5 Dow emini contract has a total notional value of $60,000. If the Dow were to drop to 11,950 then the value of one contract would be $59,750 (50 points times $5 = $250)
Now to hedge the sale of one Dow Future with a notional value of $60,000 you would look to buy $60,000 worth of the stocks that make up the Dow.
As an aside, the Dow is a price weighted index - you actually own equal share amounts of each stock (most indexes are weighted by market cap) so high dollar stocks have more influence on the Dow.
So I buy $60,000 worth of the Dow stocks as a hedge against the sale of the future which expires 3 months from now. Let's say 3 month LIBOR is 3% - I could reasonably expect to earn $450 in interest on $60,000 over the next 3 months. But remember I own stocks which pay dividends which lowers my cost of carry. Let's say the Dow has a 2% Dividend yield. I have to make some assumptions about how much of that I'll get but lets say its worth $300 (2% of 600000 is $1200 divided by 4 since the contract covers 3 months or 1/4 of the year).
Based on that info - my cost of carry is $150. So my fair value future price would be 12,000 plus my cost of carry of 12,150.
Those futures price changes are off that 12,150 number but give a good - actually very good - indication of how much lower the cash market would open.
As a reformed member of the doom-mongerers, I am keeping in mind that I've lived through both the '87 crash (DOW cratered 22% in one day) and the Nasdaq implosion of 2000/2001. Both events were largely forgotten with the passage of time.
The former stands out in my mind as scarier, though at the time I was still in college and had no real understanding of how markets worked.
So I am able to keep some perspective. A 600 point DOW plunge tomorrow would be a mere 5%. Bad, but not historically awful.
That the markets stay open and functioning, with a consistent bid at some reasonable level, is more important to me than any magic number and what I will be looking for as a possible buy signal.
Just had a birthday dinner with my mom. She is a teacher. Retiring this year. I got all of her retirement out of the market back in July (she was all in index funds, like i'm afraid many of her coworkers still are because they don't know better and are still trying to get back their money that got wiped out in the dotcom bit). I told her that it was a good thing she listened to me or we'd be eating dinner knowing that she was about to lose a lot of money in the morning. A lot of boomers are going to be really unhappy.
One of her friends ridiculed her for listening to her son and getting out of those funds back then. He said his broker told him to stay long in the market. I pointed out that I'm a lot younger than his broker and i'm retired and that if his broker was so smart he also should be retired.
How about this scenario:
Fed announces a full percent discount
before the markets open tomorrow.
Dow zooms up over 1000, as all the
shorts jump in to cover.
Unlikely, but maybe possible.
Adamski.
to 12th percentile...enjoyed your proverb, but attribution...12th century arab curse..."may you live in interesting times"...not to be confused with modern arab curse.."may you be an f....g urinal in a Greyhound bus station"
Two weeks ago, I came on here and said run far away from commodities.
In a deflation, all commodities go down in the intial stages of the downturn. Gold and Silver are going to get pummelled. So will oil.
The Euro has topped out and the U.S Dollar has put in a major bottom, which supports a bear market in commodites. We got all bear market coming in all asset classes outside of U.S bonds.
Adamski -
There is no possible way the market will be up 1000 points tomorrow or even 500.....regardless of the fed's action.
100bps wont help and all the big money knows it - particularly the shorts.
What we are seeing is the global acceptance that a recession is happening in the US which will lead to a worlwide slowdown. The markets know more than 100bps is coming in rate cuts so the timing is irrelevant - rate cuts wont keep us out of a recession - they never have - they just make the pain at the bottom of the cycle more tolerable.
I also dont think you'll see a rate cut until the meeting unless we're down more than 1000 pts tomorrow which I doubt will happen.
all u guys lookin to go long or fearful of a rate cut sit back and relax.
the sh*t has only begun to hit the fan. don't forget we have yrs of ARM resets coming, CRE has yet to give up the ghost, corporate BK's have not yet started, plenty of hedge funds to blow up, monolines will go BK in couple of wks to be followed by muni bond defaults, cc delinquencies to skyrocket to name a few. the show has only begun.
some schadenfreude is good after all it has been miserable to be a skeptic about bubbly markets for the last few years - but this blog isn't really about short term market moves I think that attracts the wrong sort of visitor. It doesn't really matter what the dow does, it is about whether or not the system is finally pricing risk correctly, and whether true inflation (including in asset prices) is being reported and fought.
The Sydney Morning Herald
Wall Street execs collect $US33b bonuses
"The Wall Street gurus who presided over the subprime mortgage crisis currently shredding global sharemarkets have awarded themselves bonuses totalling $US33.2 billion." Wall St execs collect $US33b bonuses
"So I am able to keep some perspective. A 600 point DOW plunge tomorrow would be a mere 5%. Bad, but not historically awful."
True but what about a 400 pt plunge on the heels of a serious of triple digit plunges and followed by a series of triple digit plunges? Just because something crashes in slow motion doesn't stop a build up of fear.
Look at this way, if the 87 crash was maximum on the fear meter, then ask yourself what kind of crash would engender the same maximum fear that 87 did in the press and minds today? the markets may have insured themselves against single day crashes but psychology has the same vulnerability. If we're heading for an instant of maximum fear necessary to form a bottom and shake out the losers then we're going to get it, one way or another, sooner or later & it won't be an 87 crash because that won't create the necessary maximum level of fear anymore.
Asian stocks tumbled, extending a global slump that has wiped more than $5 trillion from stock markets this year, on concern world economic growth is faltering.
More than 77 billion was wiped off the value of Britains stock market yesterday in its biggest one-day percentage loss since September 11, 2001. Shares across the world plunged over fears that the threatened US recession will undermine the global economy. Londons leading shares tumbled by 5.5%
This is interesting because Japan is down about 25% (almost 30% now) in 6 months, while FTSE & S&P 500 are both down by about 15%, but then again, Tuesday....
bunch of gleeful morons on this site reveling in the misery of others. there are many people who've done nothing wrong but follow the advice of building wealth by contributing each paycheck and diversifying their portfolio who will be hurt by all this. this calamity will affect all companies and many people including some dopes on here could lose their job due to the contraction.
but please, don't let me disturb your kiddie party.
Hang Seng down 5%. If you think it'll be bad here, just wait, the riots in China will be fugly if markets there crash. They get pissed when they lose their money.
Justin, for some reason you've got me thinking of Spinal Tap...
Seriously, though... as regards short term volatility vs. long term risk pricing, events like the past week (including tonight and tomorrow) play a big role in connecting less-involved market participants to reality. Especially when there are several disjoint underlying trends (financials crisis / recession / dilution of capital investment by construction cost surges) as we have now... the way daily swings in the equities market play out in headlines are very relevant to understanding the behaviors that couple with the risks we try to evaluate at the long term.
Brower Piven said a class action lawsuit has been filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York on behalf of purchasers of the common stock of Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) between Oct. 19, 2005 and Nov. 26, 2007.
Target Corp. (TGT) said Monday its January sales are coming in at the low end of the range it had expected earlier this month.
It was one more sign of weakness at the nation's second-largest discount retailer.
Target said earlier this month that same-store sales for January would range between a decline of 1% and a gain of 1%
The Bank of China's (SHA 601988; HK 3988) A-shares were suspended this morning on the Shanghai Stock Exchange pending an announcement.
Yesterday, the South China Morning Post reported that Bank of China may report lower profits or even a loss when it announces its 2007 results in April due to writedowns on its 7.95 bln usd worth of investments in securities linked to US subprime mortgages.
The Hang Seng index opened down 1,194.57 points or 5.02 pct at 22,624.29.
The market that I'll be watching in my dreams tonight is Germany (DAX). It's not a bubble market, not in bad shape economically, and not given to frothy markets. But it dropped more than 7% yesterday.
If Germany doesn't stabilize tonight, it could get bad in the U.S. tomorrow. I mean...bad for the bulls.
I noticed that NBC was the only broadcast network to even mention the stock market in the first minutes of its 6:30 pm newscast. It was their lead story, although they didn't spend long on it.
The mainstream media will ignore this. Not juicy enough. They'd rather focus on Britney Spears, Lindsay Lohan and the rest of those flakes. This stuff is too cerebral for the avg Joe.
Spinal tap I think because I kept typing "maximum", well if the 87 crash was a "10" is there an "11" on the fear knob?
As for the poor investor referred to by "Richard" who saves and invests a little every pay check, they are sleeping soundly because they have a long term strategy. Right? So I don't see that they are offended by any bear told-you-sos.
The ones that should hurt now are the Ben Steins who put their reputation on the line (I hope) by saying there was no risk to the downside and everyone should shake out their couch change to buy MORE (he is now saying mea culpa - but asking people to buy cadillacs). Seeing those people with egg on their faces is very pleasant.
Also the prospect of a stock market that is not functioning as a casino with a guaranteed 15% payout per year to punters would be nice. That doesn't sound sustainable to me.
bunch of gleeful morons on this site reveling in the misery of others. there are many people who've done nothing wrong but follow the advice of building wealth by contributing each paycheck and diversifying their portfolio who will be hurt by all this. this calamity will affect all companies and many people including some dopes on here could lose their job due to the contraction.
but please, don't let me disturb your kiddie party.
Gee genius isn't this why this site exists...as a community to help people preserve their wealth....some listen..some don't...which one are you?..I say crash and crash hard...we are wave over priced...and way over due for a correction in the values of assets it is only worth what i am willing to pay for it...not what some dink in a tie tells me it worth. Welcome to Deflation..get use to it.
bunch of gleeful morons on this site reveling in the misery of others. there are many people who've done nothing wrong but follow the advice of building wealth by contributing each paycheck and diversifying their portfolio who will be hurt by all this. this calamity will affect all companies and many people including some dopes on here could lose their job due to the contraction."
Richard
Understood but that is why many of us were getting pissed off four years ago. We did not understand how borrowing a bunch of money and putting it a non productive asset like housing was going to make us all wealthy. If our salaries did not support all that borrowed money and we outsourced most of our manufacturing how the hell were we going to pay it back.
Stuart This stuff is too cerebral for the avg Joe.
Actually, I think it would be more accurate to describe this stuff as too cerebral for many of the "trained journalists". The average joes are doing just fine following along with the uebernerdly stuff. Heck, they wake up on Saturdays and spend half a morning over here.
In my own dealings over the last few years, I've seen that the "average joes" are far more attuned to economic basics than most of the advanced degree theorists. Seriously. The best summary of the housing bubble I ever read was written by a carpenter on Democratic Underground before all of this erupted. I am pretty sure it was in late 2005. He was in the NW. He said he had money saved, was earning a good income, and everyone was advising him to buy a house. He wrote that he wasn't going to do it, because he couldn't figure out how most people were able to afford the houses they were buying and, I quote "I don't want to end up with a $200,000 mortgage on a $150,000 house."
The mainstream media will ignore this. Not juicy enough. They'd rather focus on Britney Spears, Lindsay Lohan and the rest of those flakes. This stuff is too cerebral for the avg Joe.
Nikk(e)i doesn't look good in a miniskirt, but Britney and Lindsay do...
From the FT:
"Michael Cox, of the Royal Bank of Scotland, said: “We now believe there are no public markets open to the monolines in their quest to raise capital...The only potential solution we can see that would enable triple-A ratings to be retained now is a co-ordinated bail-out by interested parties – banks and/or politicians.”
MOM, you said it! If the MSM chooses to keep running the britney circus over financial news, they do it at their peril. Media credibility has been declining for a decade, while the poll numbers consistently show that it's the economy (now, more than the war in Iraq) that concerns most Americans.
I hope gold and silver drop alot tomorrow. I will buy more. Obviously CBs will be cutting rates for a while. If emerging markets fall hard in the next few weeks I would expect the dollar to strengthen as a safe haven. The time may be close to move back into dollars and hedge it with gold. But I am a novice. My big quandry is what happens to ag commodities? Any comments would be welcomed Rich.
I follow the trucking industry...
Some may have heard of xtra-lease
trailer co.---
around the country there lots are so full, they can't fit another empty trailer on the lot.
Why would PIMCO make a press release of that? We know they have the inside number to call BB. What purpose could it serve but to improve their position by releasing this? or is it just a public service because they are great guys?
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Corporate Accountability
Investigation into Mortgage CEO Compensation Expands
As part of its ongoing investigation into executive pay, the Oversight Committee asked Countrywide Financial, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch to provide documents relevant to the compensation of Angelo R. Mozilo, Charles Prince and E. Stanley OÂ’Neal.
No gold bugs....but i am one happy silver bug....I am way way ahead...Buffet was selling at the time I was buying.....hehe!...Log term investment for me and i will buy more on the down turn...Silver is real money to me....your paper...is just that....paper...nothing more.
"bunch of gleeful morons on this site reveling in the misery of others. there are many people who've done nothing wrong but follow the advice of building wealth by contributing each paycheck and diversifying their portfolio who will be hurt by all this. this calamity will affect all companies and many people including some dopes on here could lose their job due to the contraction."
Richard
Well as others have stated that's why we come here and other sites to make our own up. I persomally coverd all shorts a couple pf months ago. Opened a Trade Link account with T.Rowe price and sold all holdings in their funds. That was the only way I could buy FDIC insured CD's @ 4.75% for 6 months. I can sit back and wait now till I feel it's time to get back in. I truely enjoy reading your posts and viewer comments. I trll as many people as I can to read this Blog!
I don't follow it professionally, i should have said.
Purely anecdotal.
The surge- from just watching the lots i come in contact with, never occured...
we have secondary evidence of that now.
Same thing I noticed with Cat at there yards around the country...
stuffed, with many new and used in oversupply.
Same thing I noticed with Cat at there yards around the country...
stuffed, with many new and used in oversupply.
Cat and Deere construction products groups are very slow & inventory is building... across town their ag products divisions are 30-40% above forecast and running balls to the wall. Talk about your 'market distortions'...
For all the "Richards" of the world who may have "tuned in late", these "morons" here have been investing countless hours of their precious time WARNING folks about the calamity ahead.
I, for one, am so very grateful they have. I have protected over $200,000
due to "paying attention" (or at least renting it). As someone who calls himself a "Scottish Jew", I can assure you, that amount means a lot to myself and my family.
felt that also dryfly ,
but that makes me question the commoddity bubble theory also...
farmer's should have a banner year for all-time top-line revs.
so did they overorder?
I had a hell of a time with T.Rowe Price before they even told me I had the option of opening a Trade Link account to move 401K funds to. They originally told me I only had their family of funds to choose from. I had to speak with management and have them listen to my recorded conversations regarding my concerns with the holdings in their funds. I found out what their holdings truly were buy going to a SEC website and reviewing it myself. Their “prospectus” they sent me or that was available online was seriously lacking information.
"Cat and Deere construction products groups are very slow & "
here in southern california, dozens of heavy graders have been sitting unused, covered with plastic tarps, for at least six months in the middle of a housing development.
these "morons" here have been investing countless hours of their precious time WARNING folks about the calamity ahead.
I, for one, am so very grateful they have.
If they didn't it would be the first time ever - farmers are famous for always over ordering then over shooting and over canceling or liquidating what they ordered at fire sale prices.
Back in the 90s there was another mini-commodity boom... and farmers bought capital very heavily. I knew guys at Deere who told me they had a 'firm' 18 month backorder. Then the market for grain went south and that 'firm' backorder evaporated in a matter of months.
Turns out the 'firm' farmer demand was really dealers just guessing they could sell them... during the boom demand was so hot they sold all they could get their hands on so they ordered MORE than they had orders for. When the market softened they canceled those orders en masse.
Watching CNBC Asia. The host is freaking out. The title running across the screen is MARKET MELTDOWN.
Funny how they have their own Minister of BS saying how this is "overdone."
Mish, I believe the Panic button has been hit.. and hit HARD. I heard the word PANIC several times in the last hour. The Ausie market computer system crashed due to the panic selling.
What an interesting day. I go to have some fun with the kids and get back to the markets crashing. Luckily, I kept telling my wife that "Honey, no matter what you see on the TV tomorrow about the market, remember that we are in bonds and cash except for my comany stock." Should be interesting with the China market speculator's panic and the baby boomer's panic. Should be a very interesting Tuesday.
Bombay just opened--- down 10 % 1700 points in the first TWO MINUTES! Now halted- tripped the breakers.
MASSIVE margin calls worldwide.
This one ASSCLOWN permabull states India is a "screaming buy."
BigDaddy63
I thought I heard something like that on Bloomberg TV but I was tidying up and not focussed so I didn't catch it fully and they aren't playing it up.. Hang on.. silly me - I can go to my Indian channels to see what's what - funny I never think of them as offering business news..
OK. Bloomberg is repeating that info. The market is closed for 1 hour.
Almost half of the world's biggest stock indexes fell into a bear market as mounting concern about a U.S. recession dragged down banking and retail shares across Asia, Europe and Latin America.
The MSCI World Index's 3 percent decline yesterday, the steepest since 2002, left benchmarks in France, Mexico, Italy and 35 other countries at least 20 percent below their highs in the last year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index may post its biggest decline since 2001 when the U.S. market resumes trading today after the Martin Luther King Day holiday, futures showed.
""That's it -- buyers have been defeated. They have finally run out of money and brokers are now making margin calls,"" said Andrew Clarke, trader with SG Securities.
Where do you get it ? I can only get CNBC(Worldwide ) and those idiots did a 10 minute meltdown thing and went back to regular scheduled business magazine shit. Which is why I switched to Bloomberg.
Anyway - I googled CNBC Asia - Looks like their sat footprint doesn't encompass USA.. Alles clear now. But the Indian channel Headlines today is displaying the collective angst in a rather subdued and restrained manner - Maybe it sounds more err.. passionate manner on the two Hindi news channels. I shall have to check.
Well, AAJTAK has its priorities right. They aren't going to interrupt their news feature on cricket, I say old chap - it just wouldn't be cricket would it. Jeez.. SAMAY is the same but their feature is about Bollywood - but their FLASH "MARKET CLOSED" overlay is bigger. O well, so much for relevance. Maybe this ISN'T a big deal ?
Down 750 points and closing towards 650, what a ride down, but US futures are probably way off at this stage of the game and I would shoot for at least a 4% punch for US indexes
The Hang Seng Index is expected to fall further when the market reopens after the mid-day break.
""People are predicting a 500-point fall in the US market today, so when the European traders come in this afternoon we can expect further sell orders, "" he said.
The benchmark index is likely to record its biggest single-day point loss today, beating the 1,526.02 point decline on Nov 5, 2007.
My daughter informed me this evening before bedtime that one of her pull-out classes (middle school) for the second half of the year will be on the Stock Market and stock selection.
Laughed like hell...
Told her to invest in physical assets and cash for the next year or so.
It's a "Challenge" class for gifted kids; they are expected to keep up with the classwork on the class from which they're "pulled out" but can take electives.
You're welcome. And welcome to the 21st century American education system.
Most can't read or write for S**t, but they do make efforts for the advanced...
homedad43 | 01.22.08 - 1:20 am | #
Surprisingly, there have also been gains at the low end, as NCLB has encouraged efforts to bring up the "low-hanging" students (best bang-for-the-buck). It's the middlin' students who are stuck in our worst educational mediocracy, mostly. Too much work for too many students for few points on the standardized tests. We bought puts and calls and sold the stock.
Hang Seng was down to 8.49%, but is back to 8.16%.
This is getting messy. Time to pop lots of popcorn in the am. Long day ahead, that is for damn sure.
People at this site have seen the same bs going on for a long time now. We are not gloating over the collapse of the systems, but rather we are actively discussing it.
It used to be everyone would sit at home and discuss the disaster with friends and acquaintances, everyone silently suffering while the press fed us crap for info.
Thank goodness we have the internet! We are able to discuss the crisis, and people here have been pointing out the flaws in the 'reality' of our financial system. They are only holding a mirror up, it is not their fault that the image in it is so damn ugly.
Sorry, but I'd just like to see the market return to the "good old days" where bad news was BAD, and good news was good, not the current crack-pot delusion of "all news is good, everything always goes up!" and "bad news is good since it means 1) rate cuts or 2) all the bad news is priced in."
The current economy is a unproductive shell-game of scams and debt, balanced on its point like an inverted pyramid. At the bottom of the pyramid, skewered to the ground, is the average underpaid, deeply in debt American, while sitting lazily on the top is a whole host of greedy Wall Street pigs with tons of cash and other loot stuffed in their pockets. Now, the pyramid is swaying and shedding pieces. Who am I going to believe: the average American stuck at the bottom who is not happy about it and who says that there is a problem, or the Wall Street crooks who think the pyramid is just fine or that it needs a few more layers of crooks added to the top?
Nikkei.com - Market Live
NZX
Major World Indices - Yahoo! Finance
my bet is the fed announces an emergency rate cut before US markets open tomorrow. Nikkei has opened down more than 4%
If this keeps up it's really going to put a lot of pressure on politicians to do something stupid.
Only 2600 points left to go before the normal 30% correction is over.
Nothing like a good old fashioned panic to kick off the new year.
I hope everyone has buckled up and is ready for a true disaster.
But hey, the shorts will soon have plenty of money to go long.
I imagine a few sectors will just die, one of which is the homebuilders.
This type of panic is not conducive to buying a new home or an investment property.
Someday this war's gonna end....
Can someone state a "rule of thumb" to help interpret these numbers?
I'm listening to Bloomberg TV Asia and the anchor can't contain himself. Keeps saying things like OUCH! Very funny but sad
Nikkei don't lose that number...
For anyone who wants to look at the $5 emini dow futures
Dow Emini Future Live Open Book
Nikkei now down 621...WOW!
WHich goes to 10k first - Nikkei or DOW??
ouch, crispy- that is a small part of my retirement getting pasted in japan- how's the yen doing?
Soaring? Right, then I haven't lost in terms of dollars;-}
Historical events are always bit stunning to the participants.
Helicopters will definitely be warming up after this week.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Wow, we may get to see history made! Just like our forebearers in October 1929!
A 5% drop on the Nikkei would be .... 666.3 points. Heh.
Rule of thumb, when there is blood in the street buy, but dont be fooled by going into battle and being part of a fight, wait for all the dead to be carted away, then look for gold! Lots of time here!
Mike (in Long Island): Golden link, thanks!
Thanks, Mike in LI; fun to watch.
Anything similar for S&P 500 futures?
As you recall NBC Radio was a hot new technology and lots of people in The Great Depression that had homes and radios, were able to listen to news about depressing things, so maybe we are the cusp of something here?
"Nikkei don't lose that number ..."
Dang, that brings back some good memories. Summer 1974.
Who says recessions are tough? Dad bought a new station wagon. I played baseball. And then there was Tina and Jenny and cut-off shorts. This recession is gonna be awesome!
Hopefully we'll get the 250 bps emergency rate cut before the market opens tomorrow so permabears with those short ETFs won't have a chance to cash in.
State of the Union address coming up. Should be something.
This is very surrealistic and should be made into a movie of the week ASAP while people still televisions:
Parts from the opening script: Bush and Congress are scrambling to take action as fears mount that a severe housing slump and painful credit crisis could cause people to close their wallets and businesses to put a lid on hiring, throwing the country into its first recession since 2001.
"Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," Bush said.
Can someone state a "rule of thumb" to help interpret these numbers?
Nylund | 01.21.08 - 7:37 pm | #
I agree... so a neg 450 on the DOW futures corresponds to what? Minus 450 on the DOW next day? Minus 900? I realize these are pretty good predictors of near term movement but how accurate both in magnitude and timing?
I know nothing (nothing, nothing - a la Sgt Schultz) when it comes to this part of the market.
Remember this little nugget from October which at the time seemed a bit dangerous to me?:
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The New York Stock Exchange said it will no longer impose curbs on computer-program trading that were put in place after the crash of 1987, claiming they're no longer as effective in damping swings in prices.
No curbs in place could mean some real fun tomorrow!
As crazy as this sounds, I don't think this is the Big Down in this bear market. That usually comes closer to the end. But the size and strength of this down says that the Big One may be enormous, when it comes, and that it could be up to a year away. It also says that there could be a whiplash rally in a few days.
I don't know what's going to happen. I just feel in my bones that there is nothing out there capable of providing a solid floor to this bear market for about the next year.
Honestly, It seems to me like many weak hands got caught long over the three day (weak)end. What were they thinking?
"Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," Bush said.
The fundamental real problem we have with our economy is that we over-consume relative to the amount we invest. Barring continued charity from overseas, long-term you can't keep consuming more than you produce.
The fact that Bush is talking about promoting further consumption shows that he doesn't get it.
Very worrisome when our politicians add 2 and 2 and get 5.
Maybe they don't celebrate MLK Day. I'll bet they will next year.
dryfly --
I agree... so a neg 450 on the DOW futures corresponds to what? Minus 450 on the DOW next day?
Yes.
More precisely, were the U.S. markets to magically open right now, those futures tell you where the Dow would start. (If not, there would be a trivial arbitrage opportunity, and the market does not offer those lightly.)
So the Nikkei is down another 5%? Oh dear...
Wahhhhhhh, wahhhhhhhh! Mommy!!!
But seriously, this is just depressing. Especially when I think about how many people I really care about that I utterly could not convince that we were heading this way, even though I tried for months.
Now the trick will be figuring out when it is a good buying opportunity. I think I'll start putting back in when we are down 30%, and keep putting, whether we are heading up or down from there. I thought that was a year away, but seeing as tomorrow we'll have already done a cumulative 20%, maybe Im early and should wait for a real slaughterhouse. Already this much carnage and the real s(*t hasn't even started hitting the fan. (layoffs, 7% unemployment, 50% falls in house prices)
Eh, so it goes.
Share trading site crashes
Thousands of panicked retail investors have overwhelmed the website of retail broker Commsec, crashing the system as the sharemarket opened today.
As shares continued to tick downwards for a record 12th day, Commsec customers found themselves unable to access their account on the internet between 10.10am and 10.30am.
Share site crashes - National - smh.com.au
"As crazy as this sounds, I don't think this is the Big Down in this bear market. That usually comes closer to the end. But the size and strength of this down says that the Big One may be enormous, when it comes, and that it could be up to a year away. It also says that there could be a whiplash rally in a few days."
I feel the same way, rich. The markets couldn't possibly be more treacherous right now, whether you're long or short.
Everyone be careful. And use stops!
Anyone short NIFTY?
Thanks.
short sfx, srpix, dxd, evv. Fortunately started loading up more of these last week, even though I got reamed for some of em. But I held. Yay.
Not ususal for brokerage firm phones and websites to go dead during bad times, in fact its rather normal. good luck if your long....
And tomorrow the dollar will most likely do a freefall against the yen.
Nothing to do- I put in some low, but not totally ridiculous buy orders on my homebuilder shorts. I suspect that the market makers are totally screwed due to options expiration delivering shares and will be caught with a neutral book that they won't want to sully with fresh shares.
hence they will reach deep down into the buy orders, all five of them, LOL;-}
Nice money if you happen to be leaning the right way.
seriously, what can the PPT and the fed do? Keep it orderly, and not much else. Now we see how deep the hedge funds are leaning short.
Someday this war's gonna end...
It's like an asteroid man, coming right for us.
no, it's like the Indonesian tsunami and the water went out on Friday.
It's totally common. I guarantee any of you with Ameritrade when you try to access the site tomorrow will get skunked. It's happened both of the last two times we had super heavy volume, and tomorrow's will swamp those combined. Ask Ameritrade each time and they will tell you theyve done something about it, and still, they havent. My money says you wont even be able to get your account balances for the first hour of trading. So, man the phones, and start calling early, since you'll wait to get through there. Im planning to just watch on the sidelines and hope for now major whipsawing. Pathetic...
dryfly-
In my opinion, the Dow is a worthless indicator of market strength or weakness, it's price weighted and as alluded to previously, serves little purpose. I could also provide a good argument for the ability to move the index based on previous points.
As to futures, you must balance the reported figure versus the fair value close, this, "in theory" is supposed to represent the potential strength or weakness on the open.
I like to follow the S&P and Russell 2000, 2's and 10's.
Bloomberg now reflects movement again from Fridays close-
Stock Futures on Bloomberg
"Thousands of panicked retail investors have overwhelmed the website of retail broker Commsec . . . "
Was anyone living in LA during the Rodney King riots? I was.
There's a point where you're watching something bad happening in real time when you realize you're no longer a spectator but a participant.
You know, that point where you switch from "it's happening to them" to "it might just happen to me."
We'll see. Life will probably go on just fine, but bank panics and such give me a little of the 'ol heebus jeebus.
I have zero dollars long in the stock market, so it's not that. It's the follow-on stuff.
And to think - all this fun because a few poor people in the US tried to buy houses.
AllenM, I'm actually leaning the other way with a buy order on my favorite junior gold minor at 10% off Friday's close.
But our thinking is the same in the sense that the MMs may be reaching down deep to find a place to unload shares.
No Paul, not just the poor. Also the wanna be rich, who thought they were better off than they were. They're the next big wave of pain coming to a theatre near you after next Christmas.
Even if the Fed showered money on Wall Street Tuesday AM the die is cast. Too many people are spooked now by the news and are just waiting to sell.
Fear 28, Greed 0, at halftime.
This is somewhat surreal to be honest.
Basically, the entire world is saying, the stock market will crash tomorrow, and there isn't a thing you can do about it.
All I know is i'm getting to work early tomorrow and getting the few things I need to get done done, so I can witness the carnage.
I think after tomorrow its gonna be tougher trading if you're short - Jan thus far has been easy money - a second crash is a real possiblity, as is an otherwordly rally......
It's nice to know I matter! I can screw up the world just like kings, presidents, and terrorists.
How low do you think the Nikkei can go?
would you people stop refreshing on the nikkei site! you're killing it!
I've NEVER had this much trouble on there...
Was anyone living in LA during the Rodney King riots? I was.
I was, too. Working at an office downtown when they erupted. I came out to go home and could smell the smoke from the burning cars down by City Hall.
If you're short and in cash tomorrow, before the day is over, you should think taking some of those gains off the table for a bit and being heavier weighted to cash. But of course, tomorrow has so much shock and awe potential ahead in so many ways, it will be just jaw dropping to watch.
Cramer says techs are OK.
Yahoo Plans to Eliminate About 700 Jobs, Person Says
Yahoo Plans to Eliminate About 700 Jobs, Person Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
hey sports, I would be doing buy orders too, but first that money has to get into my account.
I caught some damage last friday from that dead cat nonbounce.
So, I will go long on a couple of good stocks, but only after this disaster gets really good.
Most of what I hold hasn't been doing well for months so I have no desire to put more into the grinder.
Let my shorts pay off big, and then i will think about it.
someday this war's gonna end...
wow. very cool link. very depressing info.
Was anyone living in LA during the Rodney King riots? I was
The day after the riots, with my school closed, I went to the Federal Building to get my passport in preparation for going off to Japan later that year.
so much for China and emerging markets decoupling.
You wanted Bush the retard.... now you got him.
Happy?
I moved half of my 401(k)into short term cash this morning...maybe I should have moved all of it...........
AllenM, there's a time to every purpose, even the end of war.
I'm probably one of the few posters on this blog who is both in the stock market and not short anything, but then I'm only long gold stocks.
It'll also be a long time for me before I start looking for longer term buys in the general market. CRE might come back first.
dryfly,
The change you are seeing is relative to fair value. Futures pricing is pretty straight forward. Right now the front month is March (the contract will expire the 3rd Friday in March).
Fair value pricing is simply the cost to carry the hedge from now til then. If a future contract has a notional value of say $250,000 (just a number for illustrative purposes)- or that amount of the index then to price it out you'd figure out your cost to buy all of the stocks in the index in the right amounts to equal the value of the futures contract. You sell 1 future and hedge your risk with the long stock basket. Keep in mind that you have an opportunity cost - so whats the interest you would have earned on the cash spent on buying the stocks - less dividends received by the stocks held. Add this opportunity cost to the current index spot price to get a sense for what the future will trade for - this is the fair value price. Equity futures trade for a spread over the cash or spot price of the index. The spread gets less and less as you approach expiration.
Everyone be careful. And use stops!
number2son | 01.21.08 - 8:05 pm | #
If the market gets real ugly it'll blow through your stops like a runaway semi through a snow fence.
I moved half of my 401(k)into short term cash this morning...maybe I should have moved all of it...........
girlbear | 01.21.08 - 8:24 pm | #
Who wants to retire anyway...
all this fun because a few poor people in the US tried to buy houses
more like millions of people borrowed trillions of dollars that they won't be able to repay.
Previously here I've said the bubble blow off 2002-2006 lending was 4 Trillion, but if one normalizes that to the 2000-2001 lending plateau that would be TWO TRILLION of dead money walking.
IOW, the total lending 2003-2007 that exceeded the (already high) 2000-2001 levels is about $2T. Doing the usual loss-mitigation calculations on that is still HUNDREDS of billions of vaporized capital.
--
CR,
I sent you the 10-year S&P500 Chart and showing the current level (it is now down to 1258, ten minutes ago when I checked based on cash fair value). Please feel free to post because it is highly illuminating.
Jas
"Was anyone living in LA during the Rodney King riots? I was."
MTH,
I was working 3 blocks from Florence and Normandy. Rode my motorcycle that day. Former Marine. White. It scared me worse than some fucker that was taking pot shots at us in the PI. Escort to 405 to go home...Still sucked...
Chris
Yes this is starting to give me the creeps also...
one night in Bangkok and the world's your oyster
the bars are temples but their pearls aren't free
One night on Wall Street makes a hard man humble
Not much between despair and ecstasy
What's worrying me at the moment is the momentum and how it will play out in Washington. Our politicians pass incredibly BAD legislation whenever the public is panicked. (re: Patriot Act, AUMF, etc)
I moved half of my 401(k)into short term cash this morning...maybe I should have moved all of it...........
uhh, you do know that your order won't get filled until 3:45PM tomorrow, since the market was closed today ...
And to think - all this fun because a few poor people in the US tried to buy houses.
When the median price of a home rises to 8-10 times the median household income, the median household is poor...
Boy, having gone 98% cash in my 457 and my wifes 457/401a last spring before the February crash....
This is payback for having to watch the DOW climb to 14000 and hear experts like Abby J. Cohen say buy buy buy!
That was a very tough few months with the in-laws. The wife never lost faith.
The inlaws would bring up the market every chance they got before.
Haven't heard a peep in weeks.
Thanks Mike in LI - I don't get it but that's not your fault (I need to work some numbers and do some more reading first... but then maybe my time would be better spent cutting wood & planning a garden next summer [;)]...
central-
you just had to do it, didn't ya? (:-
OK, so stocks will fall 5% tomorrow.
yawn
"Markets will fluctuate"
NY Times - Stocks Plunge Worldwide on Fears of a U.S. Recession
"There is indeed some panic."
- NY Times
Thousands of panicked retail investors have overwhelmed the website of retail broker Commsec, crashing the system as the sharemarket opened today.
As shares continued to tick downwards for a record 12th day, Commsec customers found themselves unable to access their account on the internet between 10.10am and 10.30am.
thats enough for me to want to be a permabear forever (redundant). WTF with all these gimmicks to limit selling?
About the US markets being closed Monday:
If a market crashes and no one's around, does it make a sound?
I'm listening to Bloomberg TV Asia and the anchor can't contain himself. Keeps saying things like OUCH! Very funny but sad
Blonde Vigilante
I have CBNC Worldwide on; I can get most channels so do you have a channel/satellite/TP number for the one you are watching ?
It was weird this morning ( Mountain Time ) - there's this big event happening and the normal CNBC and CNBCW stuck to their holiday programming. So I switched to BITV on channel 203/250|110/x for the first time in my life and they were doing fine ( awful number of ads though) showing the US futures until 9:30 EST came along and OFF they went switching over to the cash market - which is of course closed ! Idiots ! no sense of relevance it seems.
The 'net beat TV hands down today, IMO.
-K
Was anyone living in LA during the Rodney King riots? I was
I was living in Culver City, at the western end of one of the streets out of South Central (Slauson Ave) and it was very surreal going from watching the really bad stuff going down on TV, to looking out over the LA basin and seeing the plumes of smoke, to seeing a couple of the neighborhood businesses get looted, to watching the Fox Hills Mall being surrounded by National Guardsmen in Humvees and M-16s the next day.
Watching this happening in the markets does give me that same rhyming feeling.
Agree with Average Joe - we blew past the point on Friday at which I checked out of most of the market last week. Still have some money in two equity funds but only those managed by guys w/excellent and long-term experience. They'll take hits for sure but over twenty years, survive. Everything else went off of the table and I took flak from friends for being an alarmist...
Even pulled money from the bank last week.
Well, she will learn the truth sooner or later, and I have a bad habit of telling people what they need to hear, not what they want.
OT - where are O-Joe and Seb to cheer me up? I'm starting to think this will be a sleepless night, and I'm all in cash.
Margin call
OK, so stocks will fall 5% tomorrow.
yawn
"Markets will fluctuate"
jus me | 01.21.08 - 8:33 pm | #
And rich could well be right - that tomorrow could be a 'nuthin burger'... with the real downdraft a year from now and catching a lot more people by surprise.
I mean this thing sure has had a lot of hype... if there is a PPT man they got time to get their ducks in a row for tomorrow. I'm not a big believer in the PPT but markets do tend to balance... and when 'events are orchestrated' up or down it makes me highly suspicious.
Yeah, markets like to surprise people. What's that saying -- something about "causing the most people the most pain"?
BTW - would you call 500 pts down in the DOW a nuthin burger? Would the media spin it that way after all this hype (which they failed to report).
Just askin'.
on the US markets being closed Monday:
If a market crashes and no one's around, does it make a sound?
Look on the bright side. In a few years, a renter like me will be able to afford a McMansion.
central-
don't lose sleep over this. This is nothing compared to 9-11, it'll be a tough period, we'll wash out some of the asshole hedge funds (couldn't happen to nicer assholes), growth will slow/decline, and we'll move forward.
Don't let the end of the world crowd get to you. (:-
oops,
I repeat myself when under stressed.
Show's over folks - the Nikkei bounced.
Nikkei bounce seems to be being driven by Japanese exporters -- Yen weakening sig. against dollar as market bounces.
The more I look at it, the more I like it. I do think it's good. The fact is, no matter how closely I study it, no matter how I take it apart, no matter how I break it down...it remains consistent.
I wish you were here to see it! -- KC
This is my prayer for the bottom to be in, at least for today in Asia.
Dryfly,
Here's some numbers to hopefully make it easier to understand.
The emini $5 Dow Future is valued such that every point in the Dow is worth $5. So if the Dow is at 12,000 then one $5 Dow emini contract has a total notional value of $60,000. If the Dow were to drop to 11,950 then the value of one contract would be $59,750 (50 points times $5 = $250)
Now to hedge the sale of one Dow Future with a notional value of $60,000 you would look to buy $60,000 worth of the stocks that make up the Dow.
As an aside, the Dow is a price weighted index - you actually own equal share amounts of each stock (most indexes are weighted by market cap) so high dollar stocks have more influence on the Dow.
So I buy $60,000 worth of the Dow stocks as a hedge against the sale of the future which expires 3 months from now. Let's say 3 month LIBOR is 3% - I could reasonably expect to earn $450 in interest on $60,000 over the next 3 months. But remember I own stocks which pay dividends which lowers my cost of carry. Let's say the Dow has a 2% Dividend yield. I have to make some assumptions about how much of that I'll get but lets say its worth $300 (2% of 600000 is $1200 divided by 4 since the contract covers 3 months or 1/4 of the year).
Based on that info - my cost of carry is $150. So my fair value future price would be 12,000 plus my cost of carry of 12,150.
Those futures price changes are off that 12,150 number but give a good - actually very good - indication of how much lower the cash market would open.
Hopefully that made sense to someone...
r_c, appreciate your comment as always.
As a reformed member of the doom-mongerers, I am keeping in mind that I've lived through both the '87 crash (DOW cratered 22% in one day) and the Nasdaq implosion of 2000/2001. Both events were largely forgotten with the passage of time.
The former stands out in my mind as scarier, though at the time I was still in college and had no real understanding of how markets worked.
So I am able to keep some perspective. A 600 point DOW plunge tomorrow would be a mere 5%. Bad, but not historically awful.
That the markets stay open and functioning, with a consistent bid at some reasonable level, is more important to me than any magic number and what I will be looking for as a possible buy signal.
is it lunch time yet in Japan? lots of saki on sale today.
Paul, dead cats do that.
The main act is tomorrow in any event.
A small s&p is 50 bucks per point.
A big s&p is 250 bucks per point.
A nasdaq futures contract is $20 per point.
If your trying to buy protection, get read to pay up, the volatility index is soaring
London Times
World markets plunge on US recession fears / George Soros said the situation was "much more serious than any financial crisis since the end of the war"...
World markets plunge on US recession fears - Times Online
is it lunch time yet in Japan?
7 more mins.
-K
central-
"That the markets stay open and functioning, with a consistent bid at some reasonable level, is more important to me than any magic number"
exactly.(:-
Re: show's over folks - the Nikkei bounced.
It bounced yesterday also and the show today has been better than the last show, so why is the show over?
Going cash ans staying there...other than buying silver on the low...
Just had a birthday dinner with my mom. She is a teacher. Retiring this year. I got all of her retirement out of the market back in July (she was all in index funds, like i'm afraid many of her coworkers still are because they don't know better and are still trying to get back their money that got wiped out in the dotcom bit). I told her that it was a good thing she listened to me or we'd be eating dinner knowing that she was about to lose a lot of money in the morning. A lot of boomers are going to be really unhappy.
One of her friends ridiculed her for listening to her son and getting out of those funds back then. He said his broker told him to stay long in the market. I pointed out that I'm a lot younger than his broker and i'm retired and that if his broker was so smart he also should be retired.
May we live in interesting times.
Show's over? I'm just tired and going to bed. There will be plenty more to see tomorrow I agree.
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX DOWN 3.7 PCT AT 4,732.40 POINTS
How about this scenario:
Fed announces a full percent discount
before the markets open tomorrow.
Dow zooms up over 1000, as all the
shorts jump in to cover.
Unlikely, but maybe possible.
Adamski.
sure Wall Street will love the cut....but the dollar index will not...and to the F.B,,,means nothing at this point.
Adamski - I, and many others, wont jump this time. Fool me once, shame on you...fool me ....you can't get fooled again!
Will a BMW cost more than my house ?
If you live in Jacksonville FL, yes.
what a wonderful day for the market to be closed. Thank you mlk. And here I am 100% short..oh me, sometimes life is soooo goood.
IHT - Tide of lawsuits approaches troubled U.S. mortgage market (the type of mortgage legal news Tanta likes to sink her ever so sharp teeth into)
A tide of lawsuits approaches U.S. mortgage market - The New York Times
Show's over folks - the Nikkei bounced.
OMG ITS HEEADING DOWN AGAIN!11!
to 12th percentile...enjoyed your proverb, but attribution...12th century arab curse..."may you live in interesting times"...not to be confused with modern arab curse.."may you be an f....g urinal in a Greyhound bus station"
ya like -587.63
Two weeks ago, I came on here and said run far away from commodities.
In a deflation, all commodities go down in the intial stages of the downturn. Gold and Silver are going to get pummelled. So will oil.
The Euro has topped out and the U.S Dollar has put in a major bottom, which supports a bear market in commodites. We got all bear market coming in all asset classes outside of U.S bonds.
Adamski -
There is no possible way the market will be up 1000 points tomorrow or even 500.....regardless of the fed's action.
100bps wont help and all the big money knows it - particularly the shorts.
What we are seeing is the global acceptance that a recession is happening in the US which will lead to a worlwide slowdown. The markets know more than 100bps is coming in rate cuts so the timing is irrelevant - rate cuts wont keep us out of a recession - they never have - they just make the pain at the bottom of the cycle more tolerable.
I also dont think you'll see a rate cut until the meeting unless we're down more than 1000 pts tomorrow which I doubt will happen.
all u guys lookin to go long or fearful of a rate cut sit back and relax.
the sh*t has only begun to hit the fan. don't forget we have yrs of ARM resets coming, CRE has yet to give up the ghost, corporate BK's have not yet started, plenty of hedge funds to blow up, monolines will go BK in couple of wks to be followed by muni bond defaults, cc delinquencies to skyrocket to name a few. the show has only begun.
some schadenfreude is good after all it has been miserable to be a skeptic about bubbly markets for the last few years - but this blog isn't really about short term market moves I think that attracts the wrong sort of visitor. It doesn't really matter what the dow does, it is about whether or not the system is finally pricing risk correctly, and whether true inflation (including in asset prices) is being reported and fought.
The Sydney Morning Herald
Wall Street execs collect $US33b bonuses
"The Wall Street gurus who presided over the subprime mortgage crisis currently shredding global sharemarkets have awarded themselves bonuses totalling $US33.2 billion."
Wall St execs collect $US33b bonuses
Silver are going to get pummelled
Great I can buy more on the down....with cash.
The U.S dollar has put in a major bottom. The Euro has put in a major top.
Why folks want to buy commodities is beyond me?
Just like the global disconnect. Let's sell the S&P because the US is going to hell in a handbasket, yet I'm going to buy Brazil or Hong Kong.
Talk about the height of folly. Emerging Markets and Commodites are for chumps.
"So I am able to keep some perspective. A 600 point DOW plunge tomorrow would be a mere 5%. Bad, but not historically awful."
True but what about a 400 pt plunge on the heels of a serious of triple digit plunges and followed by a series of triple digit plunges? Just because something crashes in slow motion doesn't stop a build up of fear.
Look at this way, if the 87 crash was maximum on the fear meter, then ask yourself what kind of crash would engender the same maximum fear that 87 did in the press and minds today? the markets may have insured themselves against single day crashes but psychology has the same vulnerability. If we're heading for an instant of maximum fear necessary to form a bottom and shake out the losers then we're going to get it, one way or another, sooner or later & it won't be an 87 crash because that won't create the necessary maximum level of fear anymore.
Asian stocks tumbled, extending a global slump that has wiped more than $5 trillion from stock markets this year, on concern world economic growth is faltering.
More than 77 billion was wiped off the value of Britains stock market yesterday in its biggest one-day percentage loss since September 11, 2001. Shares across the world plunged over fears that the threatened US recession will undermine the global economy. Londons leading shares tumbled by 5.5%
World markets plunge on US recession fears - Times Online
This is interesting because Japan is down about 25% (almost 30% now) in 6 months, while FTSE & S&P 500 are both down by about 15%, but then again, Tuesday....
Public Service of DHE
bunch of gleeful morons on this site reveling in the misery of others. there are many people who've done nothing wrong but follow the advice of building wealth by contributing each paycheck and diversifying their portfolio who will be hurt by all this. this calamity will affect all companies and many people including some dopes on here could lose their job due to the contraction.
but please, don't let me disturb your kiddie party.
Hang Seng down 5%. If you think it'll be bad here, just wait, the riots in China will be fugly if markets there crash. They get pissed when they lose their money.
Did they freeze the Nikkei trading or something? not updating the index
Justin, for some reason you've got me thinking of Spinal Tap...
Seriously, though... as regards short term volatility vs. long term risk pricing, events like the past week (including tonight and tomorrow) play a big role in connecting less-involved market participants to reality. Especially when there are several disjoint underlying trends (financials crisis / recession / dilution of capital investment by construction cost surges) as we have now... the way daily swings in the equities market play out in headlines are very relevant to understanding the behaviors that couple with the risks we try to evaluate at the long term.
Also, there's more adrenaline involved
Nikkei is on lunch.
Brower Piven said a class action lawsuit has been filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York on behalf of purchasers of the common stock of Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) between Oct. 19, 2005 and Nov. 26, 2007.
Target Corp. (TGT) said Monday its January sales are coming in at the low end of the range it had expected earlier this month.
It was one more sign of weakness at the nation's second-largest discount retailer.
Target said earlier this month that same-store sales for January would range between a decline of 1% and a gain of 1%
Tiny - They take a 1.5 hr lunch break. No action until it's over.
Thanks. Learn something new...
NBC news is leading with the financial free fall story and listing the carnage. Not bad for MSM.
Tiny Tim, The Japanese are slackers. They start trading late, take a long saki lunch, then finish with a brief afternoon session.
Suggestion for change of song title to
"How Far We'll Go".
YouTube -
The Bank of China's (SHA 601988; HK 3988) A-shares were suspended this morning on the Shanghai Stock Exchange pending an announcement.
Yesterday, the South China Morning Post reported that Bank of China may report lower profits or even a loss when it announces its 2007 results in April due to writedowns on its 7.95 bln usd worth of investments in securities linked to US subprime mortgages.
The Hang Seng index opened down 1,194.57 points or 5.02 pct at 22,624.29.
The market that I'll be watching in my dreams tonight is Germany (DAX). It's not a bubble market, not in bad shape economically, and not given to frothy markets. But it dropped more than 7% yesterday.
If Germany doesn't stabilize tonight, it could get bad in the U.S. tomorrow. I mean...bad for the bulls.
I noticed that NBC was the only broadcast network to even mention the stock market in the first minutes of its 6:30 pm newscast. It was their lead story, although they didn't spend long on it.
ABC and CBS were campaign crap.
Tiny Tim, The Japanese are slackers. They start trading late, take a long saki lunch, then finish with a brief afternoon session.
Straw Buyer
And you should see their holiday schedule: 17 vacation days!
TSE : Calendar
Only the mainland Chinese are bigger slackers.
-K
Nikkei.com - Market Live
12,738.31 - 587.63
1/22 - 11:00
Public Service of DHE
I think it will be even more annoying if Ben comes out with a super rate cut and everything gets better for a while...
Lets just clean up all the bs and sh*t still out there asap... I'm kinda of sick of living in fairytale land...
Speaking of super rate cuts: Superdollar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The mainstream media will ignore this. Not juicy enough. They'd rather focus on Britney Spears, Lindsay Lohan and the rest of those flakes. This stuff is too cerebral for the avg Joe.
Spinal tap I think because I kept typing "maximum", well if the 87 crash was a "10" is there an "11" on the fear knob?
As for the poor investor referred to by "Richard" who saves and invests a little every pay check, they are sleeping soundly because they have a long term strategy. Right? So I don't see that they are offended by any bear told-you-sos.
The ones that should hurt now are the Ben Steins who put their reputation on the line (I hope) by saying there was no risk to the downside and everyone should shake out their couch change to buy MORE (he is now saying mea culpa - but asking people to buy cadillacs). Seeing those people with egg on their faces is very pleasant.
Also the prospect of a stock market that is not functioning as a casino with a guaranteed 15% payout per year to punters would be nice. That doesn't sound sustainable to me.
bunch of gleeful morons on this site reveling in the misery of others. there are many people who've done nothing wrong but follow the advice of building wealth by contributing each paycheck and diversifying their portfolio who will be hurt by all this. this calamity will affect all companies and many people including some dopes on here could lose their job due to the contraction.
but please, don't let me disturb your kiddie party.
Gee genius isn't this why this site exists...as a community to help people preserve their wealth....some listen..some don't...which one are you?..I say crash and crash hard...we are wave over priced...and way over due for a correction in the values of assets it is only worth what i am willing to pay for it...not what some dink in a tie tells me it worth. Welcome to Deflation..get use to it.
Will bargain hunters save the day when Europe opens? If not, I predict a stock market crash that will make all of the NYSE circuit breakers go off.
I'm doing a limit order on FRE for $20.
bunch of gleeful morons on this site reveling in the misery of others. there are many people who've done nothing wrong but follow the advice of building wealth by contributing each paycheck and diversifying their portfolio who will be hurt by all this. this calamity will affect all companies and many people including some dopes on here could lose their job due to the contraction."
Richard
Understood but that is why many of us were getting pissed off four years ago. We did not understand how borrowing a bunch of money and putting it a non productive asset like housing was going to make us all wealthy. If our salaries did not support all that borrowed money and we outsourced most of our manufacturing how the hell were we going to pay it back.
If the fed cuts prior to open, and we open with a bump, or even close to being flat, I'm going to short the living $#!+ out of the Rus2000
"Will bargain hunters save the day when Europe opens?"
I'd doubt it. Anyone who is saying anything is a buy after one day of correction is suicidal or lying....
target warns tonight-
Expired
"If the fed cuts prior to open, and we open with a bump, or even close to being flat, I'm going to short the living $#!+ out of the Rus2000"
Hahahahhaha....
Be careful people can remain irrational far longer than is believable....
(Dont get me wrong I'm way short too:))
Re: gleeful morons
Are you speaking of securities underwriters of mortgage lenders, or rating agency credit analysts? Who are you speaking of?
Stuart This stuff is too cerebral for the avg Joe.
Actually, I think it would be more accurate to describe this stuff as too cerebral for many of the "trained journalists". The average joes are doing just fine following along with the uebernerdly stuff. Heck, they wake up on Saturdays and spend half a morning over here.
In my own dealings over the last few years, I've seen that the "average joes" are far more attuned to economic basics than most of the advanced degree theorists. Seriously. The best summary of the housing bubble I ever read was written by a carpenter on Democratic Underground before all of this erupted. I am pretty sure it was in late 2005. He was in the NW. He said he had money saved, was earning a good income, and everyone was advising him to buy a house. He wrote that he wasn't going to do it, because he couldn't figure out how most people were able to afford the houses they were buying and, I quote "I don't want to end up with a $200,000 mortgage on a $150,000 house."
The mainstream media will ignore this. Not juicy enough. They'd rather focus on Britney Spears, Lindsay Lohan and the rest of those flakes. This stuff is too cerebral for the avg Joe.
Nikk(e)i doesn't look good in a miniskirt, but Britney and Lindsay do...
From the FT:
"Michael Cox, of the Royal Bank of Scotland, said: “We now believe there are no public markets open to the monolines in their quest to raise capital...The only potential solution we can see that would enable triple-A ratings to be retained now is a co-ordinated bail-out by interested parties – banks and/or politicians.”
MOM, you said it! If the MSM chooses to keep running the britney circus over financial news, they do it at their peril. Media credibility has been declining for a decade, while the poll numbers consistently show that it's the economy (now, more than the war in Iraq) that concerns most Americans.
pimco press release-
MarketWatch.com
Your retirement are all belong to us.
I hope gold and silver drop alot tomorrow. I will buy more. Obviously CBs will be cutting rates for a while. If emerging markets fall hard in the next few weeks I would expect the dollar to strengthen as a safe haven. The time may be close to move back into dollars and hedge it with gold. But I am a novice. My big quandry is what happens to ag commodities? Any comments would be welcomed Rich.
I follow the trucking industry...
Some may have heard of xtra-lease
trailer co.---
around the country there lots are so full, they can't fit another empty trailer on the lot.
Why would PIMCO make a press release of that? We know they have the inside number to call BB. What purpose could it serve but to improve their position by releasing this? or is it just a public service because they are great guys?
404 Not Found
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Corporate Accountability
Investigation into Mortgage CEO Compensation Expands
As part of its ongoing investigation into executive pay, the Oversight Committee asked Countrywide Financial, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch to provide documents relevant to the compensation of Angelo R. Mozilo, Charles Prince and E. Stanley OÂ’Neal.
No gold bugs....but i am one happy silver bug....I am way way ahead...Buffet was selling at the time I was buying.....hehe!...Log term investment for me and i will buy more on the down turn...Silver is real money to me....your paper...is just that....paper...nothing more.
"Actually, I think it would be more accurate to describe this stuff as too cerebral for many of the "trained journalists.'"
Exactly right.
Before you run to the next topic, thanks for the futures link, its in line with my calculations:
S&P 500\t1,268.00\t-57.30\t1,327.50\t
S&P 500 Index. $SPX (INDEX) 1,325.19
change:-8.06 -0.60%
SPX Index Quote - S&P 500 Index Index Quote - SPX Quote - SPX Index Price
S&P 500 P/E: = 16.83 E/P = 5.94176%
10 year Treasury @ 3.648%
^TNX: Basic Chart for 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE - Yahoo! Finance
S&P 500 Overvalued by 2.29376% (for fair value)
S&P 500 Fair Value for Tuesday = 1294
Dispatch this,
Isn't it pretty common for the yards to fill completely in January? My understanding is that lots of trailers exist only for the 4th quarter surge.
How does this year compare to prior years?
I'd just like to point out that the low on the sp500 on the 16th of August to the close on the 17th of August , the sp500 was up more than 5%.
"bunch of gleeful morons on this site reveling in the misery of others. there are many people who've done nothing wrong but follow the advice of building wealth by contributing each paycheck and diversifying their portfolio who will be hurt by all this. this calamity will affect all companies and many people including some dopes on here could lose their job due to the contraction."
Richard
Well as others have stated that's why we come here and other sites to make our own up. I persomally coverd all shorts a couple pf months ago. Opened a Trade Link account with T.Rowe price and sold all holdings in their funds. That was the only way I could buy FDIC insured CD's @ 4.75% for 6 months. I can sit back and wait now till I feel it's time to get back in. I truely enjoy reading your posts and viewer comments. I trll as many people as I can to read this Blog!
Thank You
I don't follow it professionally, i should have said.
Purely anecdotal.
The surge- from just watching the lots i come in contact with, never occured...
we have secondary evidence of that now.
Same thing I noticed with Cat at there yards around the country...
stuffed, with many new and used in oversupply.
Same thing I noticed with Cat at there yards around the country...
stuffed, with many new and used in oversupply.
Cat and Deere construction products groups are very slow & inventory is building... across town their ag products divisions are 30-40% above forecast and running balls to the wall. Talk about your 'market distortions'...
For all the "Richards" of the world who may have "tuned in late", these "morons" here have been investing countless hours of their precious time WARNING folks about the calamity ahead.
I, for one, am so very grateful they have. I have protected over $200,000
due to "paying attention" (or at least renting it). As someone who calls himself a "Scottish Jew", I can assure you, that amount means a lot to myself and my family.
felt that also dryfly ,
but that makes me question the commoddity bubble theory also...
farmer's should have a banner year for all-time top-line revs.
so did they overorder?
PS
I had a hell of a time with T.Rowe Price before they even told me I had the option of opening a Trade Link account to move 401K funds to. They originally told me I only had their family of funds to choose from. I had to speak with management and have them listen to my recorded conversations regarding my concerns with the holdings in their funds. I found out what their holdings truly were buy going to a SEC website and reviewing it myself. Their “prospectus” they sent me or that was available online was seriously lacking information.
"Cat and Deere construction products groups are very slow & "
here in southern california, dozens of heavy graders have been sitting unused, covered with plastic tarps, for at least six months in the middle of a housing development.
these "morons" here have been investing countless hours of their precious time WARNING folks about the calamity ahead.
I, for one, am so very grateful they have.
Amen.
Let's not forget that first Fed-induced "episode"...
http://stockmarketcrash.atspace.com
so did they overorder?
If they didn't it would be the first time ever - farmers are famous for always over ordering then over shooting and over canceling or liquidating what they ordered at fire sale prices.
Back in the 90s there was another mini-commodity boom... and farmers bought capital very heavily. I knew guys at Deere who told me they had a 'firm' 18 month backorder. Then the market for grain went south and that 'firm' backorder evaporated in a matter of months.
Turns out the 'firm' farmer demand was really dealers just guessing they could sell them... during the boom demand was so hot they sold all they could get their hands on so they ordered MORE than they had orders for. When the market softened they canceled those orders en masse.
I expect a repeat - just don't know how soon.
Watching CNBC Asia. The host is freaking out. The title running across the screen is MARKET MELTDOWN.
Funny how they have their own Minister of BS saying how this is "overdone."
Nikkei down 561 today + the 600 yesterday..
I'm betting over 600 to close...they love to toy with numbers
Hong Kong down 8% so far..
Mish, I believe the Panic button has been hit.. and hit HARD. I heard the word PANIC several times in the last hour. The Ausie market computer system crashed due to the panic selling.
The US markets could see 8 - 10 % down today.
What an interesting day. I go to have some fun with the kids and get back to the markets crashing. Luckily, I kept telling my wife that "Honey, no matter what you see on the TV tomorrow about the market, remember that we are in bonds and cash except for my comany stock." Should be interesting with the China market speculator's panic and the baby boomer's panic. Should be a very interesting Tuesday.
Bombay just opened--- down 10 % 1700 points in the first TWO MINUTES! Now halted- tripped the breakers.
MASSIVE margin calls worldwide.
This one ASSCLOWN permabull states India is a "screaming buy."
oh I just got the heebee jeebezz.
Is nikkei going to hit 700?
Nikkei down 673 and falling fast.
india sensex down 10% meltdown mode
698....
Bombay just opened--- down 10 % 1700 points in the first TWO MINUTES! Now halted- tripped the breakers.
MASSIVE margin calls worldwide.
This one ASSCLOWN permabull states India is a "screaming buy."
BigDaddy63
I thought I heard something like that on Bloomberg TV but I was tidying up and not focussed so I didn't catch it fully and they aren't playing it up.. Hang on.. silly me - I can go to my Indian channels to see what's what - funny I never think of them as offering business news..
OK. Bloomberg is repeating that info. The market is closed for 1 hour.
-K
oh baby:
HANG SENG INDEX NOW DOWN 8 PERCENT AT 21,903.04
Almost half of the world's biggest stock indexes fell into a bear market as mounting concern about a U.S. recession dragged down banking and retail shares across Asia, Europe and Latin America.
The MSCI World Index's 3 percent decline yesterday, the steepest since 2002, left benchmarks in France, Mexico, Italy and 35 other countries at least 20 percent below their highs in the last year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index may post its biggest decline since 2001 when the U.S. market resumes trading today after the Martin Luther King Day holiday, futures showed.
""That's it -- buyers have been defeated. They have finally run out of money and brokers are now making margin calls,"" said Andrew Clarke, trader with SG Securities.
Oh the humanity....
Watching CNBC Asia....
BigDaddy63
Where do you get it ? I can only get CNBC(Worldwide ) and those idiots did a 10 minute meltdown thing and went back to regular scheduled business magazine shit. Which is why I switched to Bloomberg.
-K
bloomberg streams
Bloomberg News
My CNBC feed on XM is carrying something about ultimate fighting right now. Gah.
go to CNBC.com homepage. click the watch live now..
Anyway - I googled CNBC Asia - Looks like their sat footprint doesn't encompass USA.. Alles clear now. But the Indian channel Headlines today is displaying the collective angst in a rather subdued and restrained manner - Maybe it sounds more err.. passionate manner on the two Hindi news channels. I shall have to check.
-K
NY Times - Stocks Plunge Worldwide on Fears of a U.S. Recession
"There is indeed some panic."
FFDIC | 01.21.08 - 8:33 pm | #
Does this mean I won't be getting my pony?
Well, AAJTAK has its priorities right. They aren't going to interrupt their news feature on cricket, I say old chap - it just wouldn't be cricket would it. Jeez.. SAMAY is the same but their feature is about Bollywood - but their FLASH "MARKET CLOSED" overlay is bigger. O well, so much for relevance. Maybe this ISN'T a big deal ?
-K
My CNBC feed on XM is carrying something about ultimate fighting right now. Gah.
F. Frederson | 01.21.08 - 11:58 pm | #
That would be tomorrow morning - on the floor of the NYSE...
Nikkei 225\t12,638.50\t-687.44\t-5.16%
Does this mean I won't be getting my pony?
DCRogers | 01.22.08 - 12:08 am | #
Sure. With or without fries?
That would be tomorrow morning - on the floor of the NYSE...
That will be more of a wailing and gnashing of teeth.
January 22 : 12,630.41 (- 695.53) 14:17
Conjure Clock
11:59:05
January 22 : 12,626.30 (- 699.64) 14:18
January 22 : 12,600.52 (- 725.42) 14:19
This will be an amazing historic hour! freefall?
mp, what are you doing? Your conjure clock is lagging.
Probert, I think we're reasonably on time. Four days ago, most folks would have said the clock was too fast.
1/2 hour to go to hit 1000
January 22 : 12,574.31 (- 751.63) 14:26
Something tells me Conjure's Clock will now be taken a little more seriously.
All is well,
January 22 : 12,621.93 (- 704.01) 14:39
the conjure clock tells me it's bedtime
Anony/Doc - Everyone who wants frequent updates has the appropriate sites up in another tab. Okay?
Down 750 points and closing towards 650, what a ride down, but US futures are probably way off at this stage of the game and I would shoot for at least a 4% punch for US indexes
The Hang Seng Index is expected to fall further when the market reopens after the mid-day break.
""People are predicting a 500-point fall in the US market today, so when the European traders come in this afternoon we can expect further sell orders, "" he said.
The benchmark index is likely to record its biggest single-day point loss today, beating the 1,526.02 point decline on Nov 5, 2007.
mp:
Is there any such event that would trip Conjure Bag's clock ahead by more than one or two second intervals?
My clock skips ahead, but usually because of a kid screwing with it - and my head.
mp:
Is there any such event that would trip Conjure Bag's clock ahead by more than one or two second intervals?
My clock skips ahead, but usually because of a kid screwing with it - and my head.
homedad- "Is there any such event that would trip Conjure Bag's clock ahead by more than one or two second intervals?"
Yes, and we may or may not see such an event tomorrow in New York.
O/T:
My daughter informed me this evening before bedtime that one of her pull-out classes (middle school) for the second half of the year will be on the Stock Market and stock selection.
Laughed like hell...
Told her to invest in physical assets and cash for the next year or so.
It's none of my business, but what is a "pull-out class?"
ok i'm retarded.
where are the mass reports of RMBS and CMBS debt defaulting such that CDO and CDS and CMO portfolios and on and on are in complete and finl jeopardy?
have all these write does as described by lama and tanta been REALIZED?
i'm starting to think the bottom is closer than ever (LOL) i mean almost here, is because the proclamations of doom exceed calculable reality.
this is not my idea, someone else brought it up earlier.
then idoc comes along and ruins the fun.
who knows
time to buy is when everyone says never ever buy this crap!
It's a "Challenge" class for gifted kids; they are expected to keep up with the classwork on the class from which they're "pulled out" but can take electives.
dc1000, we're now going to find the bottom.
Thank you. I''d never heard that term before.
You're welcome. And welcome to the 21st century American education system.
Most can't read or write for S**t, but they do make efforts for the advanced...
You're welcome. And welcome to the 21st century American education system.
Most can't read or write for S**t, but they do make efforts for the advanced...
homedad43 | 01.22.08 - 1:20 am | #
Surprisingly, there have also been gains at the low end, as NCLB has encouraged efforts to bring up the "low-hanging" students (best bang-for-the-buck). It's the middlin' students who are stuck in our worst educational mediocracy, mostly. Too much work for too many students for few points on the standardized tests. We bought puts and calls and sold the stock.
Regards to all of you and good hunting.
Hang Seng was down to 8.49%, but is back to 8.16%.
This is getting messy. Time to pop lots of popcorn in the am. Long day ahead, that is for damn sure.
People at this site have seen the same bs going on for a long time now. We are not gloating over the collapse of the systems, but rather we are actively discussing it.
It used to be everyone would sit at home and discuss the disaster with friends and acquaintances, everyone silently suffering while the press fed us crap for info.
Thank goodness we have the internet! We are able to discuss the crisis, and people here have been pointing out the flaws in the 'reality' of our financial system. They are only holding a mirror up, it is not their fault that the image in it is so damn ugly.
Thank goodness for CR and Tanta!
To quote Megatron, "Fall, FALL!!"
Sorry, but I'd just like to see the market return to the "good old days" where bad news was BAD, and good news was good, not the current crack-pot delusion of "all news is good, everything always goes up!" and "bad news is good since it means 1) rate cuts or 2) all the bad news is priced in."
The current economy is a unproductive shell-game of scams and debt, balanced on its point like an inverted pyramid. At the bottom of the pyramid, skewered to the ground, is the average underpaid, deeply in debt American, while sitting lazily on the top is a whole host of greedy Wall Street pigs with tons of cash and other loot stuffed in their pockets. Now, the pyramid is swaying and shedding pieces. Who am I going to believe: the average American stuck at the bottom who is not happy about it and who says that there is a problem, or the Wall Street crooks who think the pyramid is just fine or that it needs a few more layers of crooks added to the top?
Let it all fall.
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