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Looks like a great story, but why is the WSJ so damn slow with getting good stories out? Things are so much faster here, so thanks for being here!
The real problem is that pension trustees are no longer fulfilling their patriotic duty to suck up all this crap without asking questions. Damn commie pension trustees just don't know their place.
96 and a half coppers for a sawbuck--yummeh! Yeah, CR, I'm with you--I wonder what the less desirable stuff comes in at--And what about the utter crap?
"What am I bid for this shredder-fuel? Can we start the bidding at 18 dollars per ton?"
What a time to try to go to market with that 'stuff'... if timing is everything these guys know nothing.
Banks can always parcel off these loans at a discount. I suspect we shall see a good deal of this in the coming months as banks preserve the balance shhet at say 70 cents on the dollar.
Some Anon poster in the Coments posted a tid bit of info on Vancouver Canada and how it is not a safe city...did some digging...There have been 21 execution style drug related murders, in public places, in the last few months...no arrests..I guess we could loan them a few FBI folks. I will avoid travels to this town.
96.5 on the bond for that earning potential sounds pretty good, but will they throw in a Platinum Players Club card for all Harrah's properties just to sweeten the deal?
And the first shall be last.
Dryfly,
I agree with you, and the banks aren't stupid, I assume they will postpone the offering if they legally can, and if, as we all expect, the market is disorderly.
Banker was right, though, when he said that the longer these pier loans stayed on the books, the greater risk that some additional extraneous events would come along and complicate matters for the banks. Now "Something wicked this way comes."
This debt is much less desirable than in 2006. November gaming revenues on the LV strip were down 19% YOY ( Las Vegas Casino and Gambling Revenue Declined in November ).
Funny that they decided in early Jan to push thru the deal (when mgmt would have an idea of what the earnings would look like), and set a deadline that is before their normal earnings release (late Feb). If I'm investing in those bonds, I need to see the 2007 financials.
Given the recent downturn in gaming revenues, these bonds may no longer be "seen as the most desirable".
AZ,
Heh heh, looks like we had the same thought, only you trumped me with a nice link!
TJ - I take pride in thoroughly researching my puts!
There have been 21 execution style drug related murders, in public places, in the last few months...no arrests..I guess we could loan them a few FBI folks. I will avoid travels to this town.
Barely - you the kind of guy drug lords would want to execute? If not I wouldn't sweat it too much and go enjoy BC if you get the chance. Nice place.
If these were RANDOM shootings that's one thing - or bombings. But they are targeted assassinations which are just that... targeted. If you aren't involved in practices likely to lead one of them to target you (or mistake you for their target) then you would be MORE than safe. The last thing they want to do is miss their target and hit you bringing heat down on them so they have to flee without fulfilling their contract.
This debt is much less desirable than in 2006. November gaming revenues on the LV strip were down 19% YOY
And indian casinos are expanding all over too...
Dryfly - You seems to know quite a bit about "hits". What did you say you do for a living? I recall it involved a lot of travel...
Dryfly - You seems to know quite a bit about "hits". What did you say you do for a living? I recall it involved a lot of travel...
AZ_Cowboy | 01.21.08 - 10:46 pm | #
LOL. I have a family full of lawyers. Both my sis & her hubby worked white collar crime for the fed gov't - tax primarily. My sister knew prosecutors who were gunned down on the steps of a federal court house in the 80s... I believe it was in Miami. Mob hit - drug case.
We would have lovely talks about stuff like this at holiday dinners...
Now there are places I worry about being an 'accident'... hit by cross fire or mistaken... places like Juarez or TJ... especially if you are a moron gingo like me walking around gawking. But I wouldn't worry a minute about targeted assassinations in a place like BC - they absolutely won't hit you unless they intend to hit you. If you know what I mean.
Barley,
Because you're a drug dealer?
Does anyone have directions to the bankerdome? Im loaded up with supplies, so much so, that he might let me in.
dryfly and rich....I tend to avoid places with high crime rates. I always thought Vancouver was a place of simple pot heads now it appears to be just a big turf war. Not my thing at all! Been there before - a very nice place and the scenery is nice, ok people and some good dining. But who want to go to a five star place thinking that the next table is the next to be hit. I'll pass, thanks.
If this stuff wasn't profitable for the banks, then why were they making these deals for, except for suckers. . . and now they are the suckers. Too damn bad.
lets see, increasing competition from Macao, an imploding local economy, and a national one slipping inevitably into recession. Hotels super overbuilt, rates about to hit the skids...yeh, I want some of that debt for Harrahs...BWAHAHAHAHAH. Enjoy holding it IB suckas!
Barley,
That's a shame to hear about Vancouver. I remember eating some great big crabs there once, bigger than a plate, at 10 p.m. in the summer and it wasn't dark yet. With some great local beer.
Here's a link to a site maintained by the province of Ontario, with a chart indicating that Vancouver has one of the higher crime rates in Canada--and a crime rate far LOWER than many big U.S. cities. Dramatically lower. Look at the chart.
http://www.2ontario.com/welcome/ooql_602.asp
I'm not liking this decade any more. Can we go back to the 90s now?
Very interesting story re: Wynn's entry into Macau and how high fuel surcharges on trans-pacific flights mean more and more asian gambling money is heading to Macau and not LV -- occupancy rates this lunar New Year will be interesting.
OT, but following several recent posts...
The recent Vancouver killing was gang related - as were most of the previous ones. From looking at the statistics, Vancouver is a much, much safer city than most U.S. cities (2.6 murders per 100,000 vs. 15.2 for LA and 34 for Atlanta.
The Daily, Thursday, July 21, 2005. Crime statistics
and
>Don's Home Page
One anecdotal high-profile killing is not a reflection on a whole city, nor is it necessarily race-based or a long-term trend.
The problem is that there's a time in the cycle when investors want iffy companies loaded with debt, and then there's a time when they don't.
Unfortunately, the PE firms keep churning out deals after the good time has passed.
The real bag holders aren't the investors who buy this debt. At 10%, it might do okay. The bag holders are the investors in Apollo Management who hold the equity stub. Suckers.
I can't help thinking of work tomorrow (Big Northeast Regional U). Glad I don't work in Development. They just launched a big $1 billion capital campaign. Something tells me alums aren't going to be feeling too generous after tomorrow.
Followed up by a stocks expert who says "Yes, I would be betting my grandmother's money on the Hong Kong market at these levels (Hang Seng 22000)). Hmmm...
(both of the above stories from bloomberg TV Asia)
hmm. remember blackstone group (BX)going public last summer? currently minus 50% from highs. good timing, for them!
According to the economist regarding bongwater, 3 points of denial:
"First was that the Federal Reserve would rescue both the markets and the economy, as it has done so often before. Second, even if the American economy faltered, the rest of the world (particularly Asia) could take up the burden of producing global growth. Third, given the global picture, corporate profits could stay high."
"All three assumptions are now coming under question."
John Stark - Thanks saw this. Thanks. But if you go to the Federal Govt web site (Statistics Canada) you will note some interesting stuff. The homocides are per Vancouver but not the populations of surrounding areas..this is like saying the homocide rate in NY (minus Queens, Bronx...is lower for Manhatten because the reported incident is over there not here.
To use your source the homocide rate per 100k for TO is so low because we lump in all of Jane/Fintch and Mississauga, ...
"nor is it necessarily race-based or a long-term trend"
OO please...
Oh yeah, economist link:
Premium content | Economist.com
Maybe we should sue the agents:
Feeling Misled on Home Price, Buyers Are Suing Their Agent
Or maybe I should my travel agent who suggested Vancouver?
Regards,
that was a reference to someone on a previous thread who called it 'immigration'...
There was a previous post which brought up NBC radio in regard to The Last Great Depression and that era when good ol folks sat around watching news beam from a massive wood cabinet. I just ran across this web TV site that has an episode of The Simpsons, and instead of commercials selling Geritol or corn flakes, the commercial are from CISCO. So to me this seems like an obvious new direction for high tech to fuse infotainment into blogmania and then glue it all together with customized algorithmic broadbanded connectivity.
The only reason i bring this up, is because as global markets crash and the stars re-align into a different pattern in the next few years, its probably a good idea to keep in mind that if you do your DD and stay tuned to blogs like this and others, there will be progress linked to opportunities, but for now, as with any bubble, time has to pass and the liquidity trap will have to wash off shore. In the meantime check it out: Free Videos Online - Watch TV Online - Free Video Clips | Veoh
India just opened up - Down 10% - what was that about decoupling?
duh DOOJZ!!! (the sound INP etf makes tomrrow when it's imploding)
Back when these big PE deals were being made I remember asking banker if anyone was even thinking far enough ahead as to whether these companies could 'operate' under the condition of these agreements.
Understand I come for the other end of the pipe than he does - from the make the company run by selling its output side. He came from the get the deal done side. I really appreciated a lot of his input 'cause it was alien to me. Not sure I still get it but that's 'nuther issue...
My point at the time was what if these companies actually have to make money for the PE firms & banks (as opposed to the IBs & PES just being able to flip them to somebody else)? I had serious doubts as to whether they were structured to be able to run profitably (debt load cost structure that is).
If the banks can't unload the bonds and the PE's can't flip the equity - they are going to have to either make these operations make money or lose a bunch more than they realize.
Its looking more and more like its a repeat of 80s LBO Hell.
According to Bloomberg TV - $5 trillion of stock market wealth lost this month.
The Indian stock market shutdown because of a circuit break...
Dumb Canuck my research says there is a reason they call that place Hong Kover...not that there is anything wrong with that what-so-ever!
But for travel: know where you go
For investment: Do your research.
For this town pass on both accounts
I dont know enough about it to figure out what it means, but just the decline we've seen in the US markets since the start of the year has to, in and of itself, make whatever plans many of these firms had to get around the crunch just that much harder. And as far as I know, no matter what scenarios commentators cobbled together for how we would muddle through this, with losses tricking out slowly and the damage never really mattering overall to growth, that sort of all goes out the window since it was based on the market holding up. Add the significant hit to confidence globally that this will induce, and think about how much of european growth is built on that confidence, and then the whole decoupling starts to seem ridiculous. If you look at the recent indicators there, it is getting ugly and quick. This just has the look of superglobalunwindathon, and no sir, I dont like it at all.
definitely pass on any Vancouver stocks - the capital of penny stocks and frauds.
As for Hong Kong in North America, yes. But if you look closely, the victim had a rather Italian name (Scarpino)...
What the h** happened in India?
Down 9.75% in minutes and then just stopped trading. Limit down?
I may have to rethink tomorrow.
India done for the day. They will try again tommorow...
India's Sensex plunges 11.5% at open. Trading halted. After yesterdays 7% drop.
Hang Seng down 7%. Nikkei another 4%.
OK. Decoupled!
If no Ben tomorrow, Dow down 1000 pts or about 8%. Dow has 2 days of 5-6% down days in Asia and Europe to catch up.
malabar - There will be no decoupling! India is beyond reproach. I think the market will be closed for three days. The HK "Mainland Free Float" and China markets are interesting. A lag of information and sentiment perhaps?
India's Sensex plunges 11.5% at open. Trading halted. After yesterdays 7% drop.
Oh to have been in a Bangalore cyber cafe today and get to watch history happen.
Anybody wanna bet on the DOW opening tomorrow? Lets hear some views..
I'm long Canada and in particular Vancouver... Just went there 3 months ago... Beautiful and clean, super clean. The kicker was that the trash union had been on strike for 3 weeks...
However I think they are poised for a residential condo crash... Holy new buildings...
I can just smell the hedge fund sharks moving short into Asia tonight. Mesmerizing ugly.
"Beautiful and clean, super clean" - Yes and the city was spending $77.00/hr for folks to clean the streets
Wanna job?
If this fear and chaos keeps up this could be a hell of a tueseday. Perhaps something people are talking about 15 years from now...
How will it be remembered? _________ Tuesday...
Anyone have a good color or adjective?
Torpedo Tuesday...
If debt was wealth, then the future is deflationary.
Martin Luther King Tuesday
$77.00 an hour... That explains how they could live there... I felt poor there... It was expensive....
Debt went to the masquerade ball dressed as wealth. But the party is over, and he is going home alone. The ugliness has been revealed.
And the carriage is a rotting squash....
Or was it pumpkin... It stunk none the less....
Who's pulling an all-nighter... ?
Twas the night before Tuesday,
and all through the blog,
not a blogger was resting,
not especially, the "longs"....
West coast over here... Its early yet....
I'll be up before pre market trading, but if I stay up all night and watch Europe, I'll make myself sick.
Trading in Bank of Chinas Shanghai-listed A-shares was suspended on Tuesday as the company failed to make comments on an important event"
I so wish I pulled the trigger on those double short Chinese ETFs last week....
damn....
Does Asia's drop today qualify as worse than Sept 11? We're talking -9% in indonesia, 10 in india, 8 in hong kong, nearly 7 in taiwan...yikes!
"How will it be remembered?"
Event Horizon Tuesday.
Cheers,
prat
Nades, that would have been playing with fire. I went a bit safer to EEV.
So if I bought a bridge loan, not necessarily on a casino, and the intended project will never come to fruition, can I still call it a pier? I like that word.
In my world, a bridge loan is a bridge loan (for example, the loan between acquisition and construction, or completion of construction and stabilization; also between floating rate debt and a fixed-rate perm takeout), even if the IBs don't sell it.
sorry, i meant "even if they DO sell it"
I will stay up for Europe open then get up at 5:00 or so - I am economics nerd!
All with Piers on their minds should check out the story in the Economist's Christmas edition... all about Piers, literally
My grandparents owned a large lot / small motel at the (forget the name) pier in San Diego; sold it for less than $100k to pay for medical expenses in the early 50's. Arghh 
YouTube
- Broadcast Yourself.
"Nades, that would have been playing with fire. I went a bit safer to EEV."
After Ben saves the day tomorrow I might pour it on EEV....
I think Bushie, during the SOTU, is going to break the PO debate wide open, and link to his "addicted" speach, and lay some fairly interesting agenda's , that will actually make him look like a leader, reagardless of how palatable the plan is.
"My grandparents owned a large lot / small motel at the (forget the name) pier in San Diego; sold it for less than $100k to pay for medical expenses in the early 50's. Arghh :)"
Crystal?
dunham - CR had a number of posts on bridges & piers a few months back - you might want to look at what he said then (he predicted these difficulties even though quite a few industry insiders jumped on him - saying the IBs would have NO PROBLEM syndicating these loans).
My guess is none of us can answer your specific question - its probably in the fine print of your contract. HOWEVER if you take out the loan and don't do the project... I think that might be a problem and put you in violation of the loan convents. But that's just a guess.
YouTube -
That stock trader posted a video 45 minutes ago.
dunham I gather you're involved in commercial real estate development. I think a pier loan in you're industry would be more like this. I get a huge loan for a sweet piece of CBD land and all of a sudden rents don't justify building the new highrise. You're stuck with a huge loan on a property that wont have any yield in the foreseeable future...
Big Bang Tuesday?
Someday this war's gonna end, and maybe it's gonan be Tuesday January 22, 2008.
I think Bushie, during the SOTU, is going to break the PO debate wide open, and link to his "addicted" speach, and lay some fairly interesting agenda's , that will actually make him look like a leader, reagardless of how palatable the plan is.
Even if he got it right - after all blind pigs do occasionally find acorns - he is at least four years too late. He might as well spend more time on the ranch and just try like hell to not let the situation get worse.
dryfly -
really more of a semantical question from my end.
if i was around a couple of months ago, i certainly would have supported CRs contention re syndications - i work for a fund that both originates and buys CRE loans, including these tranches of these large loans/syndications, and things started getting tough around then.
there is still a market for most of these by the way - they are just getting done at way wider spreads.
the big risk with owning a bridge loan now is that your likelihood of getting "taken out" (ie a permananent or even floating rate financing that refinances the debt you own) is much, much, much lower than it was 9 months ago. just hope your borrower has extension options, or it will get messy.
ades,
exactly correct.
from that last youtube video:
"you lose all sexual motivation"
hahahahahhaha
(worst part is i feel bad for the kid, well not that bad he's up 50% in a year....
)
Based on the futures being quoted over on Yahoo Finance, The S&P 500 is now 6.4% below where it was when fearless leader took office almost exactly 7 years ago today. Heck of a Job, Bushie.
Why would anyone with money in the mkt ever want to vote GOP? I'll take those mid teens CAGR's we had under Clinton, even if I have to pay 28% on my dividends and cap gains, any time
the big risk with owning a bridge loan now is that your likelihood of getting "taken out" (ie a permananent or even floating rate financing that refinances the debt you own) is much, much, much lower than it was 9 months ago. just hope your borrower has extension options, or it will get messy.
I'm an ops guy and asked the question - who cares if the loan is flexible if the company isn't operationally solvent!!!
Sort of like residential RE ARMs where the home owners struggle with the teaser and have no hope making the reset. These piers are gonna have a similar issue - the cash flows won't be there for the pier owners/lenders.
Gonna be some commercial 'modifications' coming down the pipe too.
I'm 6:34 in to this video and I'm beginning to suspect he might not have slept for a few days...
Now's he laughing...
I'm now thinking narcotics....
crystal meth
Why would anyone with money in the mkt ever want to vote GOP?
Dirk, Dirk, Dirk... comments like that will get you in hot water around here. Didn't anyone tell you this isn't a trading forum?
Oh ya and no politics either...
YouTube - Pat Robertson's 2008 Predictions
holy shit... maybe this guy does have a telephone to upstairs....
totally sweet dude. i know a local bank that has a pier loan with my name on it!
good thing we can take out in any day now.
but you know, i get the feeling we could miss a series of payments, be in maturity default - among others, and yet, foreclosure would never even come up. so long as the prospect of a refi was in the mix.
i asked me partner a while ago, how many payment can we miss before they get REALLY distraught. Nine he said.
i asked me partner a while ago, how many payment can we miss before they get REALLY distraught. Nine he said.
dc1000 | 01.22.08 - 12:50 am | #
Oh sure what do you have to worry about - we know the story - you're gonna be RE-disintermediation central for all that stimulus headed our way - skimming and creaming galore!!!
"that will actually make him look like a leader"
right, sort of the anti-Midas, if you will.
Torpedoes away!
Oh, shi....... BOOM
It will be interesting to see if this "most desirable" of buyout debt gets sold, and at what price. Imagine the haircuts for the less desirable debt. And these pier loans also contributes to the credit crunch by limiting the amount the banks can loans to other companies.