I think we can say two things:
1) Generally speaking HELOCs continue to look quite ugly throughout the landscape
2) BAC is telling us that even though a consumption spree/binge happened from coast-to-coast people, in CA, FL, AZ, NV people did it in a much larger way.
To address the question in the previous thread about why ABK and MBI (and other beaten down stocks and sectors) are doing well today, I think the long/short quant funds have gotten completely blown out by all the turmoil. It has literally blown their fuses, and they are liquidating, probably with big losses.
In these cases we utilized external pricing services consistent with our normal valuation processes. We priced over 70% of the exposure in this manner.
I'm not up on my conferencecallese, but it sounds like that they have more dookie to find, and an outside party to blame when they do.
I think also that we're seeing some kind of quant fund action "interfering", if you will, with historical patterns, overseas market patterns etc'. If this is so, then over the next few days the market will tank anyway.
I will go as far as saying that unless Greenspan announces that he's disconnecting from PIMCO over the next 2 -3 weeks, PIMCO's PR's are de facto Greenspan bossing around Bernanke.
Then why is 30-year money actually more expensive than yesterday?
The 10-year rate barely budged. The yield curve is much steeper now. Since consumers cannot borrow at the Fed Funds rate, how is this supposed to help?
If BofA is using money to shore up its capital base instead of lending it to consumers, how does the rate cut help anything?
This panic reaction is destabilising in the short run. In the medium term it subordinates the price stability target to the real economic activity target. It also lays the foundations for the next credit bubble, after the recession of 2008 has become a distant memory.
The Fed has just become part of the problem. Interesting times indeed.
Will T - The rate cuts help the banks because they steepen the yield curve. The banks borrow short and lend long. The spread is profit. Profit means solvency.
Will T - No doubt, but that has always been the business of banking. Banks intermediate time, that's why we have them and it's their business. Most of the time it makes money, sometimes it doesn't, but they don't really have any choice. If they stop doing it, they aren't banks any more. That's why the FED is cutting rates, to make the business of banking profitable again.
(No, I haven't been incommunicado in the bankerdome or curled up in fetal position anywhere. Laser eye surgery last week required some rest and staying away from my computer for a few days.)
An anecdote regarding refinancing. I contacted my mortgage-loan broker recently and told him I was ready to do a cash-out refi now that rates were low again. I also told him I thought the Fed was going to drop rates pretty soon, so now he thinks I'm prescient and is wondering whether I should be on his payroll to monitor such things.
But never mind that. He told me that he has a list of 600 people just like me, ready to "lock-and-refinance." All they (we) were waiting for was a good opportunity, and now they've (we've) got a great one.
What does this mean for my personal home-ATM? My mortgage payment will be virtually the same, I clean-up all my consumer debt, and do some re-modeling to boot.
So, bottom-line: An improved balance-sheet for me, an enhanced home-value and a stimulus to the local construction business. Times 600.
probert - yesterday on one of the threads, I mentioned that if you have Ameritrade, today you will have issues getting on the site, and if you do get on, you wont be able to do crap. Same as it was the last two big selloffs on heavy volume. They refuse to address the server issue. Lame.
Why does a man who was a former stock broker who knows it all have a mortgage and have consumer debt that needs to be cleaned up?
Is it actually now official that there is not a single person in the USA who is not consuming more than he earns and having to rely on cash out refis????
Worried asked: "...Why does a man who was a former stock broker who knows it all have a mortgage and have consumer debt that needs to be cleaned up?..."
You're making this personal instead of concentrating on the issue. Anybody with a decent amount of home equity is now in a position to benefit from this windfall of lower rates, and the economy will directly and quickly benefit. In my own case, my credit cards will go to zero balances, my car-loan will be paid and with a monthly mortgage payment that's no different than before, all that cash-flow that was going toward debt repayment is now available for brand-new discretionary spending.
And never mind the impact of lower rates on all those ARMs that are re-setting. The casualties there are going to wind up being considerably overstated. Low interest rates aren't going to suddenly shoot back up, either.
What does this mean for my personal home-ATM? My mortgage payment will be virtually the same, I clean-up all my consumer debt, and do some re-modeling to boot.
The majority of people that I've seen do this are usually on a death spiral towards bankruptcy. While the payments remain the same, the household balance sheet continues to deteriorate.
Few have the savvy to calculate the fees involved or that a good portion of the reduction in payments comes from resetting the term of the loan.
The fact that they have consumer debt to roll onto the mortgage usually indicates they are already living beyond their income. The savings from the over-all lower interest rate isn't usually enough to get them back to even on a monthly basis.
I've never known any of them to realize that they needed to cut spending after a refi.
Eventually, they are underwater on the home, car, and the credit card is maxed. Most of them are actually suprised when they run out of options.
Many HELOCs available to people--not fully tapped--would result in much higher CLTVs now than a couple of years ago due to house price declines. Do banks ever reduce the size of lines of credit when home values are sinking, the economy is on the skids, or credit scores are falling? If so, how much of this is done on an individual basis as compared to a general reduction in available lines?
I can cash advance on my credit cards since that previous balance has now been transferred to my over-inflated house value. That leaves me in a position to obtain fresh credit cards to pay off the newly cash-advanced cards so I can again cash advance on the original credit cards. After that income-stream has been consumed, I will cash advance on the new cards as I inevitably will be offered additional new cards. If for some strange reason I am denied acces to new cards, I still have my dog and cat that can probably receive cards. The key here, is the continuation of new plastic cards.
If they stop doing it, they aren't banks any more. That's why the FED is cutting rates, to make the business of banking profitable again. Tactical Flashlights r c helicopter video game
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I'm like,um,reassured.you bet.everything is fine,move along.
BoA needs to calculate its home equity CLTV ratios based upon current market conditions. Not on the "appraised" values.
Apparently this is all wonderful news, as BAC is amng the few stocks making gains today!
I think we can say two things:
1) Generally speaking HELOCs continue to look quite ugly throughout the landscape
2) BAC is telling us that even though a consumption spree/binge happened from coast-to-coast people, in CA, FL, AZ, NV people did it in a much larger way.
wow....
How long until the central banks get together to implement the first in a long series of "one time emergency currency devaluations"?
You know things become much clearer when you understand the truth.
Lie: "The fed uses interest rates to achieve low unemployment and low inflation."
Truth: "The fed uses interest rates to boost the stock market and housing market."
NO essential economic data came in that would have justified a rate cut. None. They simply cut in panic amidst a global sell-off in STOCKS.
To address the question in the previous thread about why ABK and MBI (and other beaten down stocks and sectors) are doing well today, I think the long/short quant funds have gotten completely blown out by all the turmoil. It has literally blown their fuses, and they are liquidating, probably with big losses.
I was actually surprised the Fed did not cut a full point before the market open. At least get the markets into the green.
Why should the CEO fo B of A or any other bank receive a large payday if their future depends on the actions of a limp FED?
I CAN HAZ 500 POINT DOW PLUNGE BACK?
In these cases we utilized external pricing services consistent with our normal valuation processes. We priced over 70% of the exposure in this manner.
I'm not up on my conferencecallese, but it sounds like that they have more dookie to find, and an outside party to blame when they do.
I think also that we're seeing some kind of quant fund action "interfering", if you will, with historical patterns, overseas market patterns etc'. If this is so, then over the next few days the market will tank anyway.
FITch cuts ABK - time for another rate cut!
I will go as far as saying that unless Greenspan announces that he's disconnecting from PIMCO over the next 2 -3 weeks, PIMCO's PR's are de facto Greenspan bossing around Bernanke.
"How long until the central banks get together to implement the first in a long series of "one time emergency currency devaluations"?"
They have been doing this for years, that is why gold is near $900
Look at financials, HOV, BKUNA up 6,8 % WFC up 5%.... how can this not be a quant event...
So the rate cut is supposed to help BofA?
Then why is 30-year money actually more expensive
than yesterday?
The 10-year rate barely budged. The yield curve is much steeper now. Since consumers cannot borrow at the Fed Funds rate, how is this supposed to help?
If BofA is using money to shore up its capital base instead of lending it to consumers, how does the rate cut help anything?
Sounds like the Fed is pushing a rope.
Is anyone successfully logging onto Ameritrade?? Anyone know anything? It's been like 20 minutes now I can't get in.
I wonder if Bernanke feels dirty, used, and cheap right now.
I hope they at least bought BB a nice dinner
From Willem Buiter:
This panic reaction is destabilising in the short run. In the medium term it subordinates the price stability target to the real economic activity target. It also lays the foundations for the next credit bubble, after the recession of 2008 has become a distant memory.
The Fed has just become part of the problem. Interesting times indeed.
FT.com | Willem Buiter's Maverecon | The Bernanke put: buttock-clenching monetary policymaking at the Fed
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Will T - The rate cuts help the banks because they steepen the yield curve. The banks borrow short and lend long. The spread is profit. Profit means solvency.
The answer is to invade California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada.
Average Joe:
Two Fed governors, one cup?
trail -
Borrowing short and lending long is what got the SIVs into trouble.
yeah but you can swap out fixed for floating. LOL
All that was needed for this to happen was collusion and a lack of regulation, which is why anything any of this crooks say is highly suspect!
Will T - No doubt, but that has always been the business of banking. Banks intermediate time, that's why we have them and it's their business. Most of the time it makes money, sometimes it doesn't, but they don't really have any choice. If they stop doing it, they aren't banks any more. That's why the FED is cutting rates, to make the business of banking profitable again.
(No, I haven't been incommunicado in the bankerdome or curled up in fetal position anywhere. Laser eye surgery last week required some rest and staying away from my computer for a few days.)
An anecdote regarding refinancing. I contacted my mortgage-loan broker recently and told him I was ready to do a cash-out refi now that rates were low again. I also told him I thought the Fed was going to drop rates pretty soon, so now he thinks I'm prescient and is wondering whether I should be on his payroll to monitor such things.
But never mind that. He told me that he has a list of 600 people just like me, ready to "lock-and-refinance." All they (we) were waiting for was a good opportunity, and now they've (we've) got a great one.
What does this mean for my personal home-ATM? My mortgage payment will be virtually the same, I clean-up all my consumer debt, and do some re-modeling to boot.
So, bottom-line: An improved balance-sheet for me, an enhanced home-value and a stimulus to the local construction business. Times 600.
Sebastia
The answer is to invade California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada.
to do what... kick out the snowbird invasion from from Canada ?
"Two Fed governors, one cup?"
Now that is just disgusting! Apropriate, but disgusting!
probert - yesterday on one of the threads, I mentioned that if you have Ameritrade, today you will have issues getting on the site, and if you do get on, you wont be able to do crap. Same as it was the last two big selloffs on heavy volume. They refuse to address the server issue. Lame.
Sebastian
"I clean-up all my consumer debt,"
Why does a man who was a former stock broker who knows it all have a mortgage and have consumer debt that needs to be cleaned up?
Is it actually now official that there is not a single person in the USA who is not consuming more than he earns and having to rely on cash out refis????
Strange times.
Worried asked: "...Why does a man who was a former stock broker who knows it all have a mortgage and have consumer debt that needs to be cleaned up?..."
You're making this personal instead of concentrating on the issue. Anybody with a decent amount of home equity is now in a position to benefit from this windfall of lower rates, and the economy will directly and quickly benefit. In my own case, my credit cards will go to zero balances, my car-loan will be paid and with a monthly mortgage payment that's no different than before, all that cash-flow that was going toward debt repayment is now available for brand-new discretionary spending.
And never mind the impact of lower rates on all those ARMs that are re-setting. The casualties there are going to wind up being considerably overstated. Low interest rates aren't going to suddenly shoot back up, either.
Sebastia
""Two Fed governors, one cup?"
Now that is just disgusting! Apropriate, but disgusting!
Yearning to Learn
Seconded...for a minute I thought I was the only demented person that got that reference...
What does this mean for my personal home-ATM? My mortgage payment will be virtually the same, I clean-up all my consumer debt, and do some re-modeling to boot.
The majority of people that I've seen do this are usually on a death spiral towards bankruptcy. While the payments remain the same, the household balance sheet continues to deteriorate.
Few have the savvy to calculate the fees involved or that a good portion of the reduction in payments comes from resetting the term of the loan.
The fact that they have consumer debt to roll onto the mortgage usually indicates they are already living beyond their income. The savings from the over-all lower interest rate isn't usually enough to get them back to even on a monthly basis.
I've never known any of them to realize that they needed to cut spending after a refi.
Eventually, they are underwater on the home, car, and the credit card is maxed. Most of them are actually suprised when they run out of options.
(Not implying Sebastian is in this situation)
Sebastian,
I fail to see how transferring debt from your credit cards to your mortgage helps your balance sheet.
Tanta or CR:
Many HELOCs available to people--not fully tapped--would result in much higher CLTVs now than a couple of years ago due to house price declines. Do banks ever reduce the size of lines of credit when home values are sinking, the economy is on the skids, or credit scores are falling? If so, how much of this is done on an individual basis as compared to a general reduction in available lines?
Thanks
transient said: "I fail to see how transferring debt from your credit cards to your mortgage helps your balance sheet."
Fair point, and my own fault for not being precise.
It improves my cash-flow, not my balance-sheet, even if the freed-up cash flow subsequently has a positive impact on my balance-sheet.
S.
Sebastian is a revolver.
LOL!
Why does a man who was a former stock broker who knows it all have a mortgage and have consumer debt that needs to be cleaned up?
Perhaps he worked for OLDE.
What Sebastian really meant to say was...
I can cash advance on my credit cards since that previous balance has now been transferred to my over-inflated house value. That leaves me in a position to obtain fresh credit cards to pay off the newly cash-advanced cards so I can again cash advance on the original credit cards. After that income-stream has been consumed, I will cash advance on the new cards as I inevitably will be offered additional new cards. If for some strange reason I am denied acces to new cards, I still have my dog and cat that can probably receive cards. The key here, is the continuation of new plastic cards.
See. It is so easy once you understand it.
Is anyone successfully logging onto Ameritrade?Tactical Flashlights
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If they stop doing it, they aren't banks any more. That's why the FED is cutting rates, to make the business of banking profitable again.
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