Ah well, was shooting for first. I worked for two regional banks, which are now part of the Borg, BAC.
In those heady years when I was right out of college (circa 1996) and Glass-Steagall was being tossed in the bin, it looked like we'd merge down to an oligopoly.
I was thinking that too actually. All the regional banks in my town are now nationals, who immediately raised rates.
So now I bank at a small place with four branches and a CEO that knows me by name. And really between ATM cards and electronic fund transfers, it really doesn't matter anymore.
I was in Australia and banked seamlessly with my small small town bank half a world away. It was kind of surreal.
On the comment regarding regional banks, the U.S. still has an incredible number of banks, especially relative to Europe and Japan. Some regional banks, but a lot of smaller, local banks.
While the number continues to drop, improvements in communications have slowed that, as it's allowed people to receive the services of their hometown banks even outside of traditional service areas. When your hometown bank actually has live people who pick up the phone when you call, there's a certain incentive to stay with them, so the major national banks haven't had as much traction as they otherwise might.
And while there are some regional and local banks in trouble (especially in certain areas), many of them are much more stable than their national counterparts.
PV, yes, but what we were seeing back then was a move to a dichotomy of huge nationals vs. tiny locals and nothing in between. hasn't exactly worked out that way.
Also at that time was the "branch model is a dinosaur" theory; then Commerce exploded on the scene.
Dryfly, yes the regionals have major, major CRE exposure. Many of my old friends are working that beat, or were until recently, and it doesn't look good out there.
Dryfly, yes the regionals have major, major CRE exposure. Many of my old friends are working that beat, or were until recently, and it doesn't look good out there.
Gary | Homepage | 01.23.08 - 10:08 am | #
I see the empty developments everywhere I drive - no sir, it does not look good.
What are the implications if we get money supply and asset price deflation, but consumer price inflation? Am I correct in thinking that that's just about the worst conceivable situation?
SunTrust has an aggressive wholesale division -- they had one of the biggest booths at this year's lender fair in Denver. I think their niche is A paper GSE loans, but they were pitching like crazy -- and they were giving away these way cool flat LED keychain lights.
JUST RELEASED VIDEO!!!
Bernanke as teen tried to hold back funds then. Luckily a wise senior citizen taught a group of young bankers some sound words of advice.
for the second straight day, the garbage stocks are rallying while quality stocks are tanking. It's the strangeness of an anti-flight-to-quality within an overall flight-to-quality.
To me, it means major implosion in long/short hedge funds. There' many hedge funds that bought Apple and shorted Circuit City. It makes sense, right? Not today. Those funds are getting creamed. The fact that it has gone on for two days shows the size of the hedge fund unwind/losses.
Gift for financial shorts: DSL just announced today a horrible quarter, totally awful, but the shares are UP in the general financial/REIT buying going on. I can't believe this one....
What are the implications if we get money supply and asset price deflation, but consumer price inflation? Am I correct in thinking that that's just about the worst conceivable situation?
J. Michael Neal
You and several others on here, speak repeatedly about what hedge funds are doing as if you intimately involved with them. Are you? I don't mean to sound skeptical, I'm just curious where you get all this inside info from. Care to share?
Went on a jungle tour in Sumatra once. A monkey suddenly pulling my tour badge from my neck, and started biting my face. I strangled it to death and even broke its clavicles. It sure felt good.
It looks like there is just reflexive buying going on. Who gains from ultra-low rates? Banks, REITs, homebuilders....
I think the market is betting that Bernanke will keep cutting aggressively, and that it will work like a charm. I think the first part might well be correct.
DOW is down 148 at 11,822 -- it looks like todays target floor is 11,800. If the Tuesday rate cut leads to a slow unwinding of the equity markets, that will be a good thing. Orderly retreats are always better than panic crashes.
Considering the bad options BB has to choose from, he is doing okay. We can have a stagflation recession, or a deflationary depression -- the former is bad news, the latter would be a disaster.
It looks like there is just reflexive buying going on. Who gains from ultra-low rates? Banks, REITs, homebuilders....
No way, you guys are 100% wrong. I am seeing all my non-financial non-interest sensitive crappy stocks go up just as much as the financials. It's whatever had heavy short interest that is going up.
You and several others on here, speak repeatedly about what hedge funds are doing as if you intimately involved with them.
I do work for them. I'm a vendor. But I don't really have much inside information. I just try to understand the industry. You have a lot of fairly young people in their 30s and early 40s running billion-dollar hedge funds. They've never seen a real bear market.
They've developed techniques and systems that they believe in. Now, for the first time ever, they are being put to an acid test. What makes everything swing so wildly, and why strange things occur, is leverage.
For awhile, hedge funds of almost any size have not had any trouble getting as much leverage as they want, pretty cheap. They still have a lot left. They're trying to de-leverage and change the navigation systems on their space ships in mid-flight.
I'm sure some of the buying in REITs and home-building is rate cut euphoria. But it won't last. Think about it. There's never been any doubt where interest rates were going. Everybody said the Fed would cut toward 2-3% if things got bad. The only doubt was timing.
Moving rate cuts up a couple of months isn't going to help troubled HBs or CRE projects, or the banks that loaned to them. It's just smoke and when it clears, the HBs and REITs will tank again. I bought more SRS today.
What are the implications if we get money supply and asset price deflation, but consumer price inflation? Am I correct in thinking that that's just about the worst conceivable situation?
That's a tough one for the Fed but I expect Bernanke will consider money supply deflation unacceptable and if avoiding that causes some consumer inflation, well, tough.
It's not the worst possible situation. It's not necessarily even particularly bad - 0.1% money deflation plus 2% CPI could just be a recession. The worst situations are blowouts either to the deflationary or inflationary sides. Given that for 15+ years asset prices have climbed much faster than consumer prices asset deflation + consumer inflation may be inevitable. We're in that now actually.
FYI: Circuit City Stores (NYSE) was a major beneficiary, rising 79 cents, or 21%, to 4.55, after the founder of Hollywood Entertainment reported a 6.5% stake in the electronics retailer and said he was considering acquiring the company.
If you ignore or are unaware of all the bad news on commercial real estate coming down the road, then REIT yields in the 8-10% range look pretty good. The question is what the vacancy rates and rents will be in a year or two. Both will be down, I suspect. On the other hand, the better capitalized REITs will be able to pick up property on the cheap.
SunTrust it occurs to me has the bulk of their operating footprint in FL & GA.
Their retail bankers and instructed regularly to solicit home equity loans from customers. I can't imagine that is going to end well in FL. I wouldn't take a first position, let along a 2nd just about anywhere in that state.
When CRE hits the fan, especially in FL, SunTrust is going to be very exposed. The charge they reported this quarter was just to prevent 2 of their funds from "breaking the buck"
I love this company and would really like to own it one day, but I'm not sure all of this is priced in the stock yet.
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firssssssst!
today we might be getting our compensatory downdraft from Asia that we didn't get yesterday.
98%... ha
maybe we will actually see 99.99%
"but see were still made $1.00 so yup we're profitable"
We still have regional banks?
What other "fixes" does the Fed have in store for the economy? I'd like to have a list so I know when they've all been tried.
Ah well, was shooting for first. I worked for two regional banks, which are now part of the Borg, BAC.
In those heady years when I was right out of college (circa 1996) and Glass-Steagall was being tossed in the bin, it looked like we'd merge down to an oligopoly.
Pocket change.
Moin,
DSL results are looking ugly
test
10-year note now yields 3.32%
Unless my eyes deceive me, that is the lowest it has been in 50 years.
No surprise there, everyone was passing out loans like candy these last few years.
emo - you missed the memo we have decided on ZIRP per BB
i'm going to call my bank today and see if i can refinance my 30 y fixed.
10-year note now yields 3.32%
Unless my eyes deceive me, that is the lowest it has been in 50 years.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.23.08 - 9:56 am | #
So adjusted for inflation rate that means ...uh we're paying the fed 2% or so take our money?
We still have regional banks?
Gary | Homepage | 01.23.08 - 9:42 am | #
Aren't the regionals more at risk from CRE 'containment'? I believe CR has posted on that before. If so their fun has just begun.
"We still have regional banks?
Gary "
I was thinking that too actually. All the regional banks in my town are now nationals, who immediately raised rates.
So now I bank at a small place with four branches and a CEO that knows me by name. And really between ATM cards and electronic fund transfers, it really doesn't matter anymore.
I was in Australia and banked seamlessly with my small small town bank half a world away. It was kind of surreal.
Moin again,
the Greenback is on the way to rival the Yen as the new carry trade currency....
dryfly, yes, the regionals have more CRE exposure, but that isn't hitting them - yet!
Best Wishes.
10-year note now yields 3.32%
Unless my eyes deceive me, that is the lowest it has been in 50 years.
I see 3.13% in 2003 on a daily basis.
FDIC will have to be recapitalized.
So adjusted for inflation rate that means ...uh we're paying the fed 2% or so take our money?
ajmstilt | 01.23.08 - 9:59 am | #
No, no, no silly... you are paying the US Treasury not the fed. What are you, a congress woman from Toledo?
On the comment regarding regional banks, the U.S. still has an incredible number of banks, especially relative to Europe and Japan. Some regional banks, but a lot of smaller, local banks.
While the number continues to drop, improvements in communications have slowed that, as it's allowed people to receive the services of their hometown banks even outside of traditional service areas. When your hometown bank actually has live people who pick up the phone when you call, there's a certain incentive to stay with them, so the major national banks haven't had as much traction as they otherwise might.
And while there are some regional and local banks in trouble (especially in certain areas), many of them are much more stable than their national counterparts.
emo-
Oct 1981 was 1.515....Oops, my mistake, those darn decimels.
sub3.32 has happened
FDIC will have to be recapitalized.
rich | 01.23.08 - 10:01 am | #
I TEAR for the souls of lost trees. Our wallets will be stuffed fuller than Conjure Bag after a dog show....
There's haiku in there somewhere but I'm too tired to re-structure it.
So adjusted for inflation rate that means ...uh we're paying the fed 2% or so take our money?
ajmstilt | 01.23.08 - 9:59 am | #
No, no, no silly... you are paying the US Treasury not the fed. What are you, a congress woman from Toledo?
dryfly | 01.23.08 - 10:02 am | #
"fed" not "FED" no wait, maybe you're right which one is which? apearantly i can't remember...
PV, yes, but what we were seeing back then was a move to a dichotomy of huge nationals vs. tiny locals and nothing in between. hasn't exactly worked out that way.
Also at that time was the "branch model is a dinosaur" theory; then Commerce exploded on the scene.
Dryfly, yes the regionals have major, major CRE exposure. Many of my old friends are working that beat, or were until recently, and it doesn't look good out there.
"10-year note now yields 3.32%"
I am bonds illiterate, what is the implications of the above?
Does it mean people are taking refuge to the treasury bonds?
Morning Haiku:
The insects come back
For laying eggs in the spring
Babies everywhere.
Dryfly, yes the regionals have major, major CRE exposure. Many of my old friends are working that beat, or were until recently, and it doesn't look good out there.
Gary | Homepage | 01.23.08 - 10:08 am | #
I see the empty developments everywhere I drive - no sir, it does not look good.
ac --
I see 3.13% in 2003 on a daily basis.
OK, so it is only historical if it is sustained. But should that happen, the Fed will smell deflation and really get busy, I think.
What are the implications if we get money supply and asset price deflation, but consumer price inflation? Am I correct in thinking that that's just about the worst conceivable situation?
What the heck is going on with homebuilders? These guys aren't going to make any money for 2 years, why is the XHB up again???
Is this a good time to get back into HB shorts? TOL, PHM, KBH, all up.
2% on the 13-week.
^IRX: Basic Chart for 13-WEEK TREASURY BILL - Yahoo! Finance
The financials are once again rallying on the fact that someone made $2.22 in total profits.
SLM announced a loss for Q4, inc. "major losses on its derivative and hedging activities". Stock cratering.
SunTrust has an aggressive wholesale division -- they had one of the biggest booths at this year's lender fair in Denver. I think their niche is A paper GSE loans, but they were pitching like crazy -- and they were giving away these way cool flat LED keychain lights.
So adjusted for inflation rate that means ...uh we're paying the fed 2% or so take our money?
It's so cruel that just when people need to be saving we punish them for saving by lowering the rate of return they get.
dunham
that may not be a bad idea. if any sector is going to continue to feel pain, its them.
mega rall-e
imo, up 200 on da day
JUST RELEASED VIDEO!!!
Bernanke as teen tried to hold back funds then. Luckily a wise senior citizen taught a group of young bankers some sound words of advice.
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Link
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The banks are starting to resemble the town in Blazing Saddles, you know, the one that was propped up with sticks?
at moments like these, do what u don't want to do.
AP
CBO Sees $250 Million Deficit
deceiving headlines, ayyy?
try Billion, MR editor!
Expired
Lessee, BofA, Wach, and Suntrust: -95%, -98%, -98% profit changes. Modern accounting technology is amazing!
this is an opportunity to take the gift that keeps on giving.
ok, i'll be open about it. i just shorted PHM at 11.79. now come get me mkt.
What does this mean for the risk of bank failure?
Deregulation and the Financial Crisis
Robert Weissman: Deregulation and the Financial Crisis
for the second straight day, the garbage stocks are rallying while quality stocks are tanking. It's the strangeness of an anti-flight-to-quality within an overall flight-to-quality.
To me, it means major implosion in long/short hedge funds. There' many hedge funds that bought Apple and shorted Circuit City. It makes sense, right? Not today. Those funds are getting creamed. The fact that it has gone on for two days shows the size of the hedge fund unwind/losses.
But it's a great opportunity to short crap.
Gift for financial shorts: DSL just announced today a horrible quarter, totally awful, but the shares are UP in the general financial/REIT buying going on. I can't believe this one....
Downey Savings is up almost 10%.
Unbelievable !!
rich
why not just outright irrational knife catching?
What are the implications if we get money supply and asset price deflation, but consumer price inflation? Am I correct in thinking that that's just about the worst conceivable situation?
J. Michael Neal
Well hold on, we're about to find out.
rich,
You and several others on here, speak repeatedly about what hedge funds are doing as if you intimately involved with them. Are you? I don't mean to sound skeptical, I'm just curious where you get all this inside info from. Care to share?
HB's have broken the top Bollinger band and r in overbought territory on decreasing volume. duh?
Washington Post Columns
Capitalism's Enemies Within
Robert J. Samuelson - Capitalism's Enemies Within - washingtonpost.com
good question Bob
Dear Rally Monkey,
Went on a jungle tour in Sumatra once. A monkey suddenly pulling my tour badge from my neck, and started biting my face. I strangled it to death and even broke its clavicles. It sure felt good.
i guess i should confine those technical comments to PHM. i just checked XHB and they don't apply just yet.
Rich and idoc.
Your view is the only one I see here that makes sense so far. How sure are you?
It looks like there is just reflexive buying going on. Who gains from ultra-low rates? Banks, REITs, homebuilders....
I think the market is betting that Bernanke will keep cutting aggressively, and that it will work like a charm. I think the first part might well be correct.
I gotta agree. You don't have to invoke hedge funds to explain buying interest sensitive stuff after a 75bp cut with another to come.
DOW is down 148 at 11,822 -- it looks like todays target floor is 11,800. If the Tuesday rate cut leads to a slow unwinding of the equity markets, that will be a good thing. Orderly retreats are always better than panic crashes.
Considering the bad options BB has to choose from, he is doing okay. We can have a stagflation recession, or a deflationary depression -- the former is bad news, the latter would be a disaster.
It looks like there is just reflexive buying going on. Who gains from ultra-low rates? Banks, REITs, homebuilders....
No way, you guys are 100% wrong. I am seeing all my non-financial non-interest sensitive crappy stocks go up just as much as the financials. It's whatever had heavy short interest that is going up.
I do work for them. I'm a vendor. But I don't really have much inside information. I just try to understand the industry. You have a lot of fairly young people in their 30s and early 40s running billion-dollar hedge funds. They've never seen a real bear market.
They've developed techniques and systems that they believe in. Now, for the first time ever, they are being put to an acid test. What makes everything swing so wildly, and why strange things occur, is leverage.
For awhile, hedge funds of almost any size have not had any trouble getting as much leverage as they want, pretty cheap. They still have a lot left. They're trying to de-leverage and change the navigation systems on their space ships in mid-flight.
I'm sure some of the buying in REITs and home-building is rate cut euphoria. But it won't last. Think about it. There's never been any doubt where interest rates were going. Everybody said the Fed would cut toward 2-3% if things got bad. The only doubt was timing.
Moving rate cuts up a couple of months isn't going to help troubled HBs or CRE projects, or the banks that loaned to them. It's just smoke and when it clears, the HBs and REITs will tank again. I bought more SRS today.
Buy somethin into SOTU, for a trade.
moo
speaking of Stagflation, where is Stag mark... anyone have a link to his site?
If you think this is just a reaction to rate cuts, why is Circuit City up almost 50% in two days?
How does rate cuts help them?
Mark has gone silent on his blog, though he popped in here yesterday-ish.
Illusion of Prosperity
Maybe Circuit City's CEO was a Bush Pioneer, and they've decided to do the stimulus in Circuit City gift cards?
rich --
What is a hedge fund vendor?
How would you compare the positions of the hedge funds to the mutual funds?
========
What are the implications if we get money supply and asset price deflation, but consumer price inflation? Am I correct in thinking that that's just about the worst conceivable situation?
That's a tough one for the Fed but I expect Bernanke will consider money supply deflation unacceptable and if avoiding that causes some consumer inflation, well, tough.
It's not the worst possible situation. It's not necessarily even particularly bad - 0.1% money deflation plus 2% CPI could just be a recession. The worst situations are blowouts either to the deflationary or inflationary sides. Given that for 15+ years asset prices have climbed much faster than consumer prices asset deflation + consumer inflation may be inevitable. We're in that now actually.
Oops, I spoke too soon. Mark posted a nice graph on retail sales early this morning.
If you think this is just a reaction to rate cuts, why is Circuit City up almost 50% in two days?
How does rate cuts help them?
rich
Good point. It also doesn't explain DSL and ACF both being up after extraordinarily bad reports.
I'm not doubting your reasoning, just the basis for it. Let's face it, hedge funds are pretty opaque.
FYI: Circuit City Stores (NYSE) was a major beneficiary, rising 79 cents, or 21%, to 4.55, after the founder of Hollywood Entertainment reported a 6.5% stake in the electronics retailer and said he was considering acquiring the company.
Well, that answers that...
It also illustrates my point. Finding that took me about 10 seconds, right on the Yahoo stock page.
You didn't see something as obvious as that, yet you know what hedge funds are doing... I guess I am a little skeptical.
If you ignore or are unaware of all the bad news on commercial real estate coming down the road, then REIT yields in the 8-10% range look pretty good. The question is what the vacancy rates and rents will be in a year or two. Both will be down, I suspect. On the other hand, the better capitalized REITs will be able to pick up property on the cheap.
Buying Circuit City?
That isn't knife catching, that's anvil catching!!!
SunTrust it occurs to me has the bulk of their operating footprint in FL & GA.
Their retail bankers and instructed regularly to solicit home equity loans from customers. I can't imagine that is going to end well in FL. I wouldn't take a first position, let along a 2nd just about anywhere in that state.
When CRE hits the fan, especially in FL, SunTrust is going to be very exposed. The charge they reported this quarter was just to prevent 2 of their funds from "breaking the buck"
I love this company and would really like to own it one day, but I'm not sure all of this is priced in the stock yet.
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mega rall-e
imo, up 200 on da day
Rally Monkey | 01.23.08 - 10:22 am | #
I iza bear, but bounce's be good...
like sittin on a river, catchin the salmon swimmin up to spawn...
$##,###.## ---- really, really happy today... thanks CR,T and gang
an opportunity to take the gift that keeps on giving.
Tactical Flashlights
r c helicopter
video game