Down Go Rates... Down Go Rates : The average 30-yr fixed rate fell to the lowest since Mar 04 at 5.31%. (Bloomberg)
2:36 pm - Recession & Jobs : The recession potential threatens to get unemployment up to "bust it's 50-year average" of about 5.6%, reports Bloomberg, with yesterday's chart of the day from UofM professor Mark Perry. Charting jobs back to 1949 he writes "In all of the 10 past recessions, the peak unemployment rate was always above the average rate of 5.6%," he is going on forecasts by Morgan Stanley's Richard Berner for an early 09 unemployment peak at 5.7%.
Pricing the Plague : The sickly bond insurer Ambac sought out new terms on an estimated 5-yr $400M of revolving credit borrowed from Citigroup last year. The original +22 basis points is likely laughably under priced but sadly new terms have not yet been disclosed.
The markets 600 point swing is a signal for a huge drop, as future earnings are dropping and no reason for future market swings upward, the next big swing will be down hard!
he goal of time series analysis depends on what kind of data are available, but generally it can be subdivided into three parts:
Forecasting: Usually for economic variables, but population data is another example.
Characterization: By using certain parameters one can, for example, be able to discriminate between the seismic signal from an earthquake and the corresponding signal from an underground nuclear explosion. Similar techniques are being used in voice recognition.
Modeling of relationships: In the analysis of large systems of equations of economic variables one seeks to isolate variables which has a causal effect on others (control variables or exogenous variables) and variables which do not have this property.
Wowza, the map makes it look like things are simply lukewarm, but the overall graph indicates some serious cliff diving starting. It's interesting that the coastal states that were hit the hardest by the housing downturn are mostly blue and its mainly the Central West and MidWest states that are showing red. Less buffering for the economic downturn there or simply more dependent on agriculture, commodities and/or manufacturing?
OT - CR some details on the counter-party party. I don't know if anyone posted these yet. From Bloomberg and Financial Times.
This ain't your grandfather's market. With the sheer amount of money in hedged positions today, money exiting -- whether by redemptions or carry trade unwinds or whatever -- is as likely to drive prices up as it is to drive them down.
Guessing short-term market moves is a fool's game.
DD, You're link doesn't show us off to a good start. Our chances of choosing a good next president would be vastly improved if we had someone to choose from (in either party).
How difficult would it be to get the images of the Philly Fed's previous quartlerly maps and do a time sequence dissolve through the various images? That would take your info porn to the next level PLUS seeing future updates would be darkly fascinating...
Excellent charts/graphs. Perhaps, since some of the most populous states are still in the blue zone, this is why some are not currently feeling any down draft.
A bit academic but what is a recession in a service based economy? How can you record or capture, say a white collar accountant who has been asked to cut service hours by 20% (to 30 hours/week) vs an unemployment tick for a laid off worker in a manufacturing plant.
energyecon - maybe you scan squint at the Drought Monitor and pretend.
What puzzles me is that Delaware is in the red. Shouldn't those parasites be making out like bandits from all the credit card fees and interest on higher balances?
Good point Anon@6:34p, I recall reading an article a while ago that compared the burgeoning "age of information" as being a throw back to previous ages, like that of the age of Ben Franklin, dominated by many small shops and part-time workers. The Industrial and Post-Industrial age by comparison was dominated by clock-punch work schedules and more full time employments. As evidenced by CR's experiences in trying to follow the downturn in construction employment, small shops and independent contractors are hard to track for changes in employment status and work loads.
Yeah, I couldn't help but notice that. Now recession is a reality, it's on one of CR's charts.
Another precedent set: The media, the IBs, the money-center banks, the Fed, the Treasury Secretary, Congress, the President and some Presidential candidates have all identified a recession in real-time as it happens.
Ask an economist what he thinks the odds on that are.
"I've added the current probably recession. At least half of the U.S. was in recession in December based on this indicator (and probably the entire U.S. economy)"
Not to squabble but I don't think recession is going to be measured in either number of states or square miles of states having a problem.
I took the liberty of tallying all the states that were pink or red in terms of their 2006 GDP, all #'s in billions.
RI 30
Del 50
mich 337
nev 100
idaho 45
new m 62
mont 26
min 213
kan 94
mich 200
total pink/red 1157
total us gdp 11291
quick calculation shows that gdp is dropping in about 10% of the places when weighted by GDP.
The states in red on the coincident index map are hard to figure. Nevada is obviously due to the real estate crash and declining gambling; Michigan is getting crushed by the automakers' problems; but I don't understand what the issue might be in Idaho. Could be a combination of real estate and semiconductor industry problems; Micron Technology (MU) has its HQ in Boise. A quick check of MU's stock chart shows it has declined from $14 to around $6 in the last six months.
CR, help me out here. Seeing the map, and since I live in Idaho, does that mean that Idaho slipped into a recession (at least technically) in December?
Thanks,
MiTur
Down Go Rates... Down Go Rates : The average 30-yr fixed rate fell to the lowest since Mar 04 at 5.31%. (Bloomberg)
2:36 pm - Recession & Jobs : The recession potential threatens to get unemployment up to "bust it's 50-year average" of about 5.6%, reports Bloomberg, with yesterday's chart of the day from UofM professor Mark Perry. Charting jobs back to 1949 he writes "In all of the 10 past recessions, the peak unemployment rate was always above the average rate of 5.6%," he is going on forecasts by Morgan Stanley's Richard Berner for an early 09 unemployment peak at 5.7%.
Pricing the Plague : The sickly bond insurer Ambac sought out new terms on an estimated 5-yr $400M of revolving credit borrowed from Citigroup last year. The original +22 basis points is likely laughably under priced but sadly new terms have not yet been disclosed.
Well here is somebody putting our economic woes in the context of our imperial foreign policy:
Empire and the Economy
'Bout time, I say.
Empire and the Economy
Here is someone putting our economic woes in the context of our imperial foreign policy.
'Bout time, I'd say.
CR, I can't help but notice you haven't addressed the Wright Model "B" impact of these numbers
Nice graph (#1), CR; perfectly illustrative.
Naive question:
"activity"?! What kind of "activity"?
The markets 600 point swing is a signal for a huge drop, as future earnings are dropping and no reason for future market swings upward, the next big swing will be down hard!
he goal of time series analysis depends on what kind of data are available, but generally it can be subdivided into three parts:
Forecasting: Usually for economic variables, but population data is another example.
Characterization: By using certain parameters one can, for example, be able to discriminate between the seismic signal from an earthquake and the corresponding signal from an underground nuclear explosion. Similar techniques are being used in voice recognition.
Modeling of relationships: In the analysis of large systems of equations of economic variables one seeks to isolate variables which has a causal effect on others (control variables or exogenous variables) and variables which do not have this property.
Finally, another blue bar!
Wowza, the map makes it look like things are simply lukewarm, but the overall graph indicates some serious cliff diving starting. It's interesting that the coastal states that were hit the hardest by the housing downturn are mostly blue and its mainly the Central West and MidWest states that are showing red. Less buffering for the economic downturn there or simply more dependent on agriculture, commodities and/or manufacturing?
OT - CR some details on the counter-party party. I don't know if anyone posted these yet. From Bloomberg and Financial Times.
Banks, New York Regulator Meet on Bond Insurer Rescue (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
FT.com / Financials - Banks pressed to bail-out bond insurers
I'm stunned at the sheer size of the swing.
Isn't this about the point where Scotty starts to warn of a warp core breach and buckling hull?
This ain't your grandfather's market. With the sheer amount of money in hedged positions today, money exiting -- whether by redemptions or carry trade unwinds or whatever -- is as likely to drive prices up as it is to drive them down.
Guessing short-term market moves is a fool's game.
homedad43,
Scotty actually gave warning of the dilithium crystal's impending implosion...just sayin'
As the recession bites in an election year, I hope we end up choosing a good next president. Our democratic system can get us out this mess.
Odds from 2008HORSERACE.COM - Vote Today for President of the United States --
Clinton 9-5
McCain 4-1
Obama 5-1
Romney 7-1
DD, You're link doesn't show us off to a good start. Our chances of choosing a good next president would be vastly improved if we had someone to choose from (in either party).
How difficult would it be to get the images of the Philly Fed's previous quartlerly maps and do a time sequence dissolve through the various images? That would take your info porn to the next level PLUS seeing future updates would be darkly fascinating...
Excellent charts/graphs. Perhaps, since some of the most populous states are still in the blue zone, this is why some are not currently feeling any down draft.
A bit academic but what is a recession in a service based economy? How can you record or capture, say a white collar accountant who has been asked to cut service hours by 20% (to 30 hours/week) vs an unemployment tick for a laid off worker in a manufacturing plant.
energyecon - maybe you scan squint at the Drought Monitor and pretend.
What puzzles me is that Delaware is in the red. Shouldn't those parasites be making out like bandits from all the credit card fees and interest on higher balances?
I allways preffered Jordi over Scotty.
What I want to know is: what happened in Idaho?
Good point Anon@6:34p, I recall reading an article a while ago that compared the burgeoning "age of information" as being a throw back to previous ages, like that of the age of Ben Franklin, dominated by many small shops and part-time workers. The Industrial and Post-Industrial age by comparison was dominated by clock-punch work schedules and more full time employments. As evidenced by CR's experiences in trying to follow the downturn in construction employment, small shops and independent contractors are hard to track for changes in employment status and work loads.
Panicker said: "Finally, another blue bar!"
Yeah, I couldn't help but notice that.
Now recession is a reality, it's on one of CR's charts.
Another precedent set: The media, the IBs, the money-center banks, the Fed, the Treasury Secretary, Congress, the President and some Presidential candidates have all identified a recession in real-time as it happens.
Ask an economist what he thinks the odds on that are.
S.
CR
"I've added the current probably recession. At least half of the U.S. was in recession in December based on this indicator (and probably the entire U.S. economy)"
Not to squabble but I don't think recession is going to be measured in either number of states or square miles of states having a problem.
I took the liberty of tallying all the states that were pink or red in terms of their 2006 GDP, all #'s in billions.
RI 30
Del 50
mich 337
nev 100
idaho 45
new m 62
mont 26
min 213
kan 94
mich 200
total pink/red 1157
total us gdp 11291
quick calculation shows that gdp is dropping in about 10% of the places when weighted by GDP.
The states in red on the coincident index map are hard to figure. Nevada is obviously due to the real estate crash and declining gambling; Michigan is getting crushed by the automakers' problems; but I don't understand what the issue might be in Idaho. Could be a combination of real estate and semiconductor industry problems; Micron Technology (MU) has its HQ in Boise. A quick check of MU's stock chart shows it has declined from $14 to around $6 in the last six months.
Yay, the visitor count is back!
CR, help me out here. Seeing the map, and since I live in Idaho, does that mean that Idaho slipped into a recession (at least technically) in December?
Thanks,
MiTur
energycom says "do a time sequence "
Here is a time sequence, no desolve though, dont want you keyboard to get all sticky
r0m30,
Cute!
(Poor Michigan...)
What I want to know is: what happened in Idaho?
ajmstilt | 01.23.08 - 6:42 pm | #
Timber probably - building supplies.
HP and Micron Technologies are also headquartered there dryfly.
Perhaps, since some of the most populous states are still in the blue zone
Tactical Flashlights
r c helicopter
video game