The winning numbers for inventory and peak months of supply were based on having conviction in NAR not to put out more scary numbers, whatever it took.
CR, you might want to think about an Excel Art (tm) contest for the best Angelo Mozilo portrait. Tanta's portraits of the Fed the other day were truly inspirational.
OT - Brad Setser doesn't think that the trade and FX imbalances are correcting. stating that:
"one of the questions that I have long pondered is who would finance the US during a slump, even one that helped to bring the US external deficit down gradually. The only real answer I could come up with was the same folks who financed the expansion of the US deficit at time when private demand for US assets remained subdued.
...
I suspect that some central banks have gotten a little bit more conservative with their funds over the past three months even as some sovereign wealth funds have gotten more aggressive. And remember, the flow through central banks is a lot bigger somewhere between 6 and 10 times bigger than the flow through wealth funds.
Put it this way: Would any central bank reserve manager want to be the one who recommended dabbling in the US asset-backed securities market last spring? The one who recommended a 10% allocation for global equities in December? Central banks don't like losing money, at least not in dollar terms. If they lend a dollar out, they want a dollar and (a very small amount of) change back."
He then follows up with a post on the dilemas facing the PBoC noting estimates that they have switched over and are no longer making money on their dollar reserves. By some estimates, the PBoC is currently losing $4 Billion a month.
Looks like it is time for some Calculated Risk swag for prizes for the winners. May I suggest Mortgage Pig (tm) coffee mugs that change with the changing temperature of its contents, and (of course) Mortgage Pig (tm) fuzzy slippers for Rich who won two contests?
2) the peak inventory reported by NAR in 2007. Actual: 4.561 million.
Hey, don't we get credit for being right?
Or do we only win if we predict what the
NAR is going to pull out of it's ass?
Augh.
KnotRP
I'll take 4.5 million.
Why? I simply note that 1980-81had a pretty steep drop in percentage terms, and I think it takes about two years past the peak for folks to realize that the oft quoted housing market "rating agency" (NAR) is actually full of it. Housing is about to have a housing mark-to-NAR-model -> mark-to-market transition -- lots of motivated sellers, but very few bidders, all bidding so low that the sellers decide to withdraw from the market rather than sell.
Folks are going to be stuck with ARM resets and hunker down (hello consumer recession). Financial pressure will escape the system via the slower foreclosure process rather than underwater money-at-closing sales.
Anonymous | 07.29.07 - 3:38 pm | #
Anonymous | 07.29.07 - 3:38 pm
That was me - 4.5m.
KnotRP | 07.29.07 - 3:39 pm | #
Will the numbers be revised, or is this final?
shouldn't we wait for revisions?
wow...
there are some really brainy people on this site! (or lucky)
lemme guess.. LYun came in last?
Congrats to all the fine winners and for making CR a great place to hang out.
Now who was the most bullish in the hosuing predictions because the NAR wants to hire them.
Thanks, CR. It was fun to play. I hope my winning will not be revised away. Anyway, the promised prize of "ethernal fame" will be hard to take back
Your 5.6-5.8 prediction was perfect, too
someday this oversupply is going to end...
AllenM fer prez....
David Yaseen, REBear, I may provide an update after the revisions are out next month (that is usually the final revision for the NAR).
But in the rules, I stated the winner would be announced in January - so these are the winners.
Congratulations. There were other predictions that were very close too.
Best to all.
Do they win a free no money down ARM?
They win a lifetime of free insurance from AMBAC
Grats all,
Cheers,
CR - can you do another thread for 2008 predictions? (Or did you already post that thread?)
Maybe all the winners should receive a limited edition Angelo Mozillo portrait by bacon dreamz?
eternal fame? At the very least you could have included a free lifetime subscription to Calculated Risk.
The very least.
Cheers to the winners.
The winning numbers for inventory and peak months of supply were based on having conviction in NAR not to put out more scary numbers, whatever it took.
Don't bet against the fed.
Don't bet against NAR.
CR, you might want to think about an Excel Art (tm) contest for the best Angelo Mozilo portrait. Tanta's portraits of the Fed the other day were truly inspirational.
They win a lifetime of free insurance from AMBAC
Ministry of Truth | 01.24.08 - 1:30 pm | #
Their lifetime or AMBACs?
Did David Lereah participate?
If only REOs were counted as inventory
Damn poszi, ams16, curlydan
At 1.3% off I wasn't even in the competition. Wow, that's impressive.
Cheers,
Paulson: "I'd like to thank the leader for his leadership"???? wtf?
How did Sebastian do? Curious...
Seb posted that he found the whole thing silly. He was correct, but he posted no number.
Cheers,
OT - Brad Setser doesn't think that the trade and FX imbalances are correcting. stating that:
"one of the questions that I have long pondered is who would finance the US during a slump, even one that helped to bring the US external deficit down gradually. The only real answer I could come up with was the same folks who financed the expansion of the US deficit at time when private demand for US assets remained subdued.
...
I suspect that some central banks have gotten a little bit more conservative with their funds over the past three months even as some sovereign wealth funds have gotten more aggressive. And remember, the flow through central banks is a lot bigger somewhere between 6 and 10 times bigger than the flow through wealth funds.
Put it this way: Would any central bank reserve manager want to be the one who recommended dabbling in the US asset-backed securities market last spring? The one who recommended a 10% allocation for global equities in December? Central banks don't like losing money, at least not in dollar terms. If they lend a dollar out, they want a dollar and (a very small amount of) change back."
RGE - Are imbalances correcting?
He then follows up with a post on the dilemas facing the PBoC noting estimates that they have switched over and are no longer making money on their dollar reserves. By some estimates, the PBoC is currently losing $4 Billion a month.
RGE - The PBoC's dilemmas
someday this oversupply is going to end...
AllenM
... because I'll buy them all. Make me an offer.
O-Joe
Rich and AllenM -- impressive.
Nice work.
OMG I came in second! sob I know I would have takeen 1st if AllenM hadn't done better in the evening gown competition!!
contest was obviously rigged
Looks like it is time for some Calculated Risk swag for prizes for the winners. May I suggest Mortgage Pig (tm) coffee mugs that change with the changing temperature of its contents, and (of course) Mortgage Pig (tm) fuzzy slippers for Rich who won two contests?
there are some really good dart throwers on this site!
Elvis style-
Thank you very much.
I'll try to do better next year.
but till then:
Someday this war's gonna end...
2) the peak inventory reported by NAR in 2007. Actual: 4.561 million.
Hey, don't we get credit for being right?
Or do we only win if we predict what the
NAR is going to pull out of it's ass?
Augh.
KnotRP
I'll take 4.5 million.
Why? I simply note that 1980-81had a pretty steep drop in percentage terms, and I think it takes about two years past the peak for folks to realize that the oft quoted housing market "rating agency" (NAR) is actually full of it. Housing is about to have a housing mark-to-NAR-model -> mark-to-market transition -- lots of motivated sellers, but very few bidders, all bidding so low that the sellers decide to withdraw from the market rather than sell.
Folks are going to be stuck with ARM resets and hunker down (hello consumer recession). Financial pressure will escape the system via the slower foreclosure process rather than underwater money-at-closing sales.
Anonymous | 07.29.07 - 3:38 pm | #
Anonymous | 07.29.07 - 3:38 pm
That was me - 4.5m.
KnotRP | 07.29.07 - 3:39 pm | #
Ooops.
Yeah...just saw it...number above, chart below.
Arg 2.
KnotRP
BTW - nice going to those who got on two charts. You guys should be getting GS sized bonuses this year.
Hey, hey, hey, wait a minute! What about my prediction that I still wouldn't be able to afford a home?