Let's sell the rest of Blackstone to sovereign wealth funds so we can get more of our dollars back. Might as well put all our bubble experience to good use.
--
CR: risk capital, I'll ask Jas to post fewer comments.
And you will allow others to make me a subject rather than what I post being a subject and allow imposters to post as Jas Jain? Tanta and you certainly dont have problem with personal attacks and poor language as along as it is directed at me.
Tanta has taken the lead in telling everyone that they should not read my comments, mostly indirectly, and then we have a slew of people telling others, and each other, to not read my comments. I have no problem with that but it creates an audience of blind followers, something that propagandists always try to do. I find this practice of labeling disgusting. It is somewhat similar to America of few decades ago when there was discrimination against a black family that moved into a white neighborhood and there would be attempts to make the black family forced to leave. It is disgusting if you think about it.
People here are simply scared of my conclusions and, most importantly, they cant handle someone showing how bad the American System has gotten. How evil people have taken control of the economy and the political system. That is what bothers most Americans.
I have no problem with people choosing not to read my comments, but the way it is being attempted smacks of cowardice.
CR, what is the significance of this Blackstone-ADS thing in the greater picture? (Sometimes I'm not sure why certain news bits get posted... just trying to play along.)
ADS looks ready to put up a fight. It said it "strongly disagrees with Blackstone's stated assertions that (i) the OCC's most recent written proposal to Blackstone's counsel embodied the OCC's "final position" with respect to the terms on which the required approvals would be granted and (ii) the OCC is "demanding that extraordinary measures be taken by ADS and various Blackstone entities in connection with the Change in Control Notice" that "represent operational and financial burdens on ADS, Blackstone and it affiliates that cannot be reasonably assumed." Moreover, the Company believes that Blackstone has the ability to cause the condition to closing cited in Blackstone's letter to be satisfied.
According to the company, Blackstone's notice did not assert any breach of the merger agreement by Alliance Data or the occurrence or anticipated occurrence of any material adverse effect.
I read this from his blog and somehow I find it very sad.
was patiently trying to explain to a colleague at Cisco why the company's strategy was all wrong. He said this to me (and I remember it word for word):
"Jas, it's not that I don't understand you. What you're saying is not difficult to understand at all. It's that you're wrong."
When I tried for the fifth time to show him the errors in his reasoning, he interrupted me with this:
"Jas, Jas, let me finish. And it's not just that you're wrong, it's also that nobody here likes you. You're an insufferable bore. You know how some people laugh at you to your face? Well, everyone laughs at you behind your back."
Then and there the searing truth knocked me over: Every American I had ever met was a dope!
Lots of red ink in the world markets this am. DAX is showing NA, and I saw it was down over 10% earlier, so I wonder if they suspended trading? Hang Seng down 4.25%, Nikkei 225 down 3.97%.
It looks to me that Blackstone is looking for any excuse they can to get out of the deal. My assumption is they figured they can no longer sell cube steak with a filet minon label on it. Their business model no longer works.
Seems like PE guarantees of break fees aren't worth the paper they are written on. Sallie Mae dropped its $900m (I think) fee and settled for loans to keep in business
Brave indeed. Did ya happen to notice a hit counter on his blog?
It takes a special kind of person to firmly believe he is right and everyone else in the world is wrong. Psychologists sometimes use the term sociopath. At the very least chronically delusional.
Mal: "what is the significance of this Blackstone-ADS thing in the greater picture?"
To me Mal, this is a spillover story. This is how we get from a crisis in one market (e.g., subprime and housing) to another market (e.g., business investment).
Basically, the M&A boom seems now to be over, affecting buyers, sellers, and their matchmakers (banks). Expect to see lots of difficulty for firms raising capital to do acquisitions, expect to see banks having to keep loans that they committed to on their own books, expect investment bankers to have difficulty finding work, and expect companies that have debt coming due to have difficulty servicing (or rolling over) that debt. This will lead to an increase in default, a decrease in profits, and an increase in unemployment.
The whole cycle feeds on itself and markets are interconnected.
Charlie,
Those deals break down to a cash flow analysis as the last straw. There are many other considerations, but the realities of cash will be the building block of the arguement for or against.
That's not to say that cash flow alone will make the merger successful.
Seems like PE guarantees of break fees aren't worth the paper they are written on. Sallie Mae dropped its $900m (I think) fee and settled for loans to keep in business
If you sign a 'deal' with a PE - get the money first (say an escrow to a neutral third party) or consider the payments optional. I work with a couple PEs and I would not recommend the practice to others.
I will ignore your personal attacks and only respond to the subject matter.
It must be news to you that Americans are BRED to be dopes as part of the control that the economic ruling elite wish to exercise over the population and to keep it in line. It is called the Great American Propaganda Machine. You need evidence?
Bull markets can make bad deals look like genious temporarily. The truth always gets revealed during a bear market.
Remember Worldcom trying to buy Nextel and then Sprint just before its implosion. Or how about the Time Warner AOL deal. True deals of genious. NOT!
How about the failed Sallie Mae and United Rental deals of late. It was dumb luck that prevented these deals from closing, not investment acumen. Billions of Private Equity money would have been vaporized in both of these deals. And for egregious fees.
Protect your nut, wall street will not. Buy side or sell side.
I have yet to see genious on wall street, but I have seen and abundance of stupitiy.
Jas, one bit of friendly advice. Many of us may agree with you, but there is no point belaboring the same (crooks etc) again and again and be so strident. People like Peter Schiff have made similar points as you, without being insufferable.
mal, this is just another LBO deal falling apart. From the perspective of the credit crunch this is good - it means less bridge loans for the investment banks.
Jas, sometimes your posts are filled with anger and venom. I've asked you privately to tone it down - now I'll ask you publicly - please tone it down.
That's not to say that cash flow alone will make the merger successful.
But without cashflow you can bet it won't work. PE firms do not like to inject a lot of capital offset initial cashflow short falls... Oh they will do it IF they can borrow it and get good terms... but generally avoid letting much of their own skin be at risk in the game.
They in fact much prefer the opposite... mine the existing capital from a freshly minted deal immediately even if it results in shitty operational cashflow later.
--
If shot at I will respond. That is the American Way.
I never have any problem with people's conclusions about the economic system that drives everything else, including the political system. I am convinced, based on my read of history, that we are where Germany was roughly hundred years ago. Very bad leadership is the number one reason.
I will post less, naturally, if people stop making me the subject of their posts. Is this so hard to grasp? There is something called escalation. People here want to use harassment to make me leave. It is not going to happen from my side.
Dry, I remember reading some book about KKR. I think the first deal they did was a place that made bricks. They were not sure at all of their own business model, so they made sure the takeover target had an extremely predictable operational cash flow.
Dry, I remember reading some book about KKR. I think the first deal they did was a place that made bricks. They were not sure at all of their own business model, so they made sure the takeover target had an extremely predictable operational cash flow.
Now they look for money sacks first... and an exit strategy - cash flow is for suckers.
Bought 1000 ADS at 39 today. What a gift. Don't people realize that the same factors that make these companies attrative to PE make them ideal holdings during reccession.
To Take an IQ question perspective, unconsumated LBOs are to LBOs what Early/First Payment Defaults that caused the really fly-by-night mortgage brokers to collapse in Dec 06/early 07 were to the full blown mortgage issue.
As time passes, many of the companies that WERE bought out in won't be able to service the debt they were saddled with as part of the LBO. There are even LBO'd companies out there whose income doesn't even service the interest ! No doubt there's the hope that as rates come down they can refi( where have we heard THAT before ) but of course credit standards have tightened
Look for these companies to go BK and the high-yield debt to go into default.
It happened at the end of the junk bond era and will happen again.
This is a new area for me but I'm researching ways of betting against distressed debt - there ought to be distressed debt ETFs out there.
I have been a lurker here for most of this blogs life. I don't come here for news or charts. I come here for translation, opinion and commentary. I have learned from many of the frequent posters here. I HAVE ALSO DISAGREED WITH MOST OF YOU SEVERAL TIMES. This is why I have found this site so valuable. As Tanta said if the thread gets stupid or pointless people don't want to read it. I think all of this talk on commenting and who can comment is beyond stupid and pointless. I just don't see what is so difficult with skipping over a certain poster's comments if you feel that it is not worth your time. Now with so many making stupid and pointless comments about commentatiors this whole blog has become a lot less interesting.
CR, Your most recent comments directed at Jas are very disappointing. I don't see the anger and venum that you do. I do see anger and venum from many others now being validated by your comment. You don't own the comments section of this blog. Trying to control comments will only make them stupid and pointless.
Jas Jain, as I share the concern of so many on this blog, I hope that you'll keep on being Jas Jain.
Cripes, folks, this is the Internet! If JJ really feels shunned, JJ will change or leave. This hasn't happened for natural reasons. Unfortunately, we're seeing unintended consequences of the new paradigm that are no less of a bummer in this patch of real estate than on any cul-de-sac.
Tanta has subordinated ideas to personalities by boldfacing names before comments. And such a good writer knows better than to back into quotes, as every post now does.
Nice! And even more appropriate if you consider some of the words from Paul Simon's song.
“The problem is all inside your head, She said to me.
The answer is easy if you Take it logically.
I’d like to help you in your struggle To be free; ...
CR, Your most recent comments directed at Jas are very disappointing. I don't see the anger and venom that you do. I do see anger and venom from many others now being validated by your comment.
Thanks, justhewax. Someone if not afraid to tell the truth.
Yes, CR made sure that he says nothing against overt personal attacks on me and he DID MEAN to encourage attacks on me by telling the attackers that he will try to reign me down by asking me to post less, but he would do nothing to those who feel like attacking me on whim. I regret to say that part of it is bigotry. Their unstated goal is to harass me out of here. It is shameful. They are scared that I could be right in some of my negative forecasts of the future.
CR and Tanta suffer from the knowledge that they dont have. Sadly, many Americans share this characteristic. They both, especially, Tanta, suffer from serious over-estimation of their general abilities. I do think that they are intelligent and good at what they do, but they have serious behavioral deficiencies and deficiency of knowledge outside their narrow areas. They want to develop a Personality Cult! And I am a threat, it seem.
Propagandists are the most popular and likable commentators in America!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They have something to sell. They need to lure customers and I dont.
Anyway, I write what I believe and I could be wrong. Why cant people get this simple idea in their head?
CR, I guess we are all Troll feeders now. My point is as Tanta said back on the Comments thread "we all have to manage the ones who can't restrain themselves by ignoring them and not emulating them." I thought that this was the game plan. Publicly asking a poster to change their behavior will only feed their afliction and encourage others to get personal.
I realy enjoy this blog and thank all who have made it so great, especially CR and Tanta.
Back to lurkin' and learnin'...
Let's sell the rest of Blackstone to sovereign wealth funds so we can get more of our dollars back. Might as well put all our bubble experience to good use.
"Give it to Mikey. He'll eat anything."
OT,
Tan Man to give up severance.
--
CR: risk capital, I'll ask Jas to post fewer comments.
And you will allow others to make me a subject rather than what I post being a subject and allow imposters to post as Jas Jain? Tanta and you certainly dont have problem with personal attacks and poor language as along as it is directed at me.
Tanta has taken the lead in telling everyone that they should not read my comments, mostly indirectly, and then we have a slew of people telling others, and each other, to not read my comments. I have no problem with that but it creates an audience of blind followers, something that propagandists always try to do. I find this practice of labeling disgusting. It is somewhat similar to America of few decades ago when there was discrimination against a black family that moved into a white neighborhood and there would be attempts to make the black family forced to leave. It is disgusting if you think about it.
People here are simply scared of my conclusions and, most importantly, they cant handle someone showing how bad the American System has gotten. How evil people have taken control of the economy and the political system. That is what bothers most Americans.
I have no problem with people choosing not to read my comments, but the way it is being attempted smacks of cowardice.
Jas
CR, what is the significance of this Blackstone-ADS thing in the greater picture? (Sometimes I'm not sure why certain news bits get posted... just trying to play along.)
i agree with Jas
wake up to what you are doing.
Who are you? George Bush?
"Just drop off the key, Lee."
Sounds like we have the theme song for 2008.
jas
[URL=http://thumbsnap.com/v/HEzitt17.gif][IMG]http://thumbsnap.com/t/HEzitt17.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
From 24/7.com
ADS looks ready to put up a fight. It said it "strongly disagrees with Blackstone's stated assertions that (i) the OCC's most recent written proposal to Blackstone's counsel embodied the OCC's "final position" with respect to the terms on which the required approvals would be granted and (ii) the OCC is "demanding that extraordinary measures be taken by ADS and various Blackstone entities in connection with the Change in Control Notice" that "represent operational and financial burdens on ADS, Blackstone and it affiliates that cannot be reasonably assumed." Moreover, the Company believes that Blackstone has the ability to cause the condition to closing cited in Blackstone's letter to be satisfied.
According to the company, Blackstone's notice did not assert any breach of the merger agreement by Alliance Data or the occurrence or anticipated occurrence of any material adverse effect.
(end quote)
Only hearing what you want to hear is a recipe for disaster, what has this blog been exceptional at--speaking that which was not spoke elsewhere.
I read this from his blog and somehow I find it very sad.
was patiently trying to explain to a colleague at Cisco why the company's strategy was all wrong. He said this to me (and I remember it word for word):
"Jas, it's not that I don't understand you. What you're saying is not difficult to understand at all. It's that you're wrong."
When I tried for the fifth time to show him the errors in his reasoning, he interrupted me with this:
"Jas, Jas, let me finish. And it's not just that you're wrong, it's also that nobody here likes you. You're an insufferable bore. You know how some people laugh at you to your face? Well, everyone laughs at you behind your back."
Then and there the searing truth knocked me over: Every American I had ever met was a dope!
Remember DFT - Don't Feed Trolls.
listen to dryfly dang gummit.
--
Breaking news...
New Home Sales UGLY -- 604K (CNBC)
Builders can't compete with resellers, or is it the "Foreclose Me!" crowd?
Poor builders built for the annual demand of 1.65-1.9M estimated by economists. Listening to economists could be bad for your business or investments.
Jas
Jas,
I still read your comments. But less comments might get more readers.
Jas
u have some good things to say. just streamline and eliminate all the vociferousness.
Lots of red ink in the world markets this am. DAX is showing NA, and I saw it was down over 10% earlier, so I wonder if they suspended trading? Hang Seng down 4.25%, Nikkei 225 down 3.97%.
Looks like everyone is grumpy this am.
It looks to me that Blackstone is looking for any excuse they can to get out of the deal. My assumption is they figured they can no longer sell cube steak with a filet minon label on it. Their business model no longer works.
Please listen to Dry and Bacon....please?
"Extraordinary measures" are usually doable during better times.
The one 'extraordinary measure' that couldn't be overcome was the final sanity check to complete the deal.
Wonder if ADS will collect the break fee?
Seems like PE guarantees of break fees aren't worth the paper they are written on. Sallie Mae dropped its $900m (I think) fee and settled for loans to keep in business
"NoVa writes:
I read this from his blog"
Brave indeed. Did ya happen to notice a hit counter on his blog?
It takes a special kind of person to firmly believe he is right and everyone else in the world is wrong. Psychologists sometimes use the term sociopath. At the very least chronically delusional.
Mal: "what is the significance of this Blackstone-ADS thing in the greater picture?"
To me Mal, this is a spillover story. This is how we get from a crisis in one market (e.g., subprime and housing) to another market (e.g., business investment).
Basically, the M&A boom seems now to be over, affecting buyers, sellers, and their matchmakers (banks). Expect to see lots of difficulty for firms raising capital to do acquisitions, expect to see banks having to keep loans that they committed to on their own books, expect investment bankers to have difficulty finding work, and expect companies that have debt coming due to have difficulty servicing (or rolling over) that debt. This will lead to an increase in default, a decrease in profits, and an increase in unemployment.
The whole cycle feeds on itself and markets are interconnected.
At least that's sorta what I take from it...
Charlie,
Those deals break down to a cash flow analysis as the last straw. There are many other considerations, but the realities of cash will be the building block of the arguement for or against.
That's not to say that cash flow alone will make the merger successful.
Seems like PE guarantees of break fees aren't worth the paper they are written on. Sallie Mae dropped its $900m (I think) fee and settled for loans to keep in business
If you sign a 'deal' with a PE - get the money first (say an escrow to a neutral third party) or consider the payments optional. I work with a couple PEs and I would not recommend the practice to others.
--
NoVa,
I will ignore your personal attacks and only respond to the subject matter.
It must be news to you that Americans are BRED to be dopes as part of the control that the economic ruling elite wish to exercise over the population and to keep it in line. It is called the Great American Propaganda Machine. You need evidence?
A must watch BBC video Happiness Machines:
Google Videos Error
How is a born-and-bred dope to know that he, or she, is a dope?
Yes, my conclusions do make me unpopular. Charlatans and propagandists seek popularity and kill the truth in the process.
Jas
Bull markets can make bad deals look like genious temporarily. The truth always gets revealed during a bear market.
Remember Worldcom trying to buy Nextel and then Sprint just before its implosion. Or how about the Time Warner AOL deal. True deals of genious. NOT!
How about the failed Sallie Mae and United Rental deals of late. It was dumb luck that prevented these deals from closing, not investment acumen. Billions of Private Equity money would have been vaporized in both of these deals. And for egregious fees.
Protect your nut, wall street will not. Buy side or sell side.
I have yet to see genious on wall street, but I have seen and abundance of stupitiy.
ADS might have a stronger case than SLM. Anybody know if there's a breakup fee?
who's next:
http://www.arbitrageview.com/riskarb.htm
Jas, one bit of friendly advice. Many of us may agree with you, but there is no point belaboring the same (crooks etc) again and again and be so strident. People like Peter Schiff have made similar points as you, without being insufferable.
mal, this is just another LBO deal falling apart. From the perspective of the credit crunch this is good - it means less bridge loans for the investment banks.
Jas, sometimes your posts are filled with anger and venom. I've asked you privately to tone it down - now I'll ask you publicly - please tone it down.
Best to all.
That's not to say that cash flow alone will make the merger successful.
But without cashflow you can bet it won't work. PE firms do not like to inject a lot of capital offset initial cashflow short falls... Oh they will do it IF they can borrow it and get good terms... but generally avoid letting much of their own skin be at risk in the game.
They in fact much prefer the opposite... mine the existing capital from a freshly minted deal immediately even if it results in shitty operational cashflow later.
Yal, cool website. Thnx.
--
If shot at I will respond. That is the American Way.
I never have any problem with people's conclusions about the economic system that drives everything else, including the political system. I am convinced, based on my read of history, that we are where Germany was roughly hundred years ago. Very bad leadership is the number one reason.
I will post less, naturally, if people stop making me the subject of their posts. Is this so hard to grasp? There is something called escalation. People here want to use harassment to make me leave. It is not going to happen from my side.
The cowards here bode ill for Americas future.
Jas
CR, can you just ban Jas already? He ruins whatever blog he comments on, because he makes it all about him.
Dry, I remember reading some book about KKR. I think the first deal they did was a place that made bricks. They were not sure at all of their own business model, so they made sure the takeover target had an extremely predictable operational cash flow.
Dry, I remember reading some book about KKR. I think the first deal they did was a place that made bricks. They were not sure at all of their own business model, so they made sure the takeover target had an extremely predictable operational cash flow.
Now they look for money sacks first... and an exit strategy - cash flow is for suckers.
Justin,
Foxfire+Greasemonkey+killfile
See tanta's thread on comments.
Bought 1000 ADS at 39 today. What a gift. Don't people realize that the same factors that make these companies attrative to PE make them ideal holdings during reccession.
Cash flow machine.
Ben Stein Must Be Stopped!
Ben Stein Must Be Stopped | Media | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com
To Take an IQ question perspective, unconsumated LBOs are to LBOs what Early/First Payment Defaults that caused the really fly-by-night mortgage brokers to collapse in Dec 06/early 07 were to the full blown mortgage issue.
As time passes, many of the companies that WERE bought out in won't be able to service the debt they were saddled with as part of the LBO. There are even LBO'd companies out there whose income doesn't even service the interest ! No doubt there's the hope that as rates come down they can refi( where have we heard THAT before ) but of course credit standards have tightened
Look for these companies to go BK and the high-yield debt to go into default.
It happened at the end of the junk bond era and will happen again.
This is a new area for me but I'm researching ways of betting against distressed debt - there ought to be distressed debt ETFs out there.
-K
Isn't there some kind of comment threading that Halo can do?
Comments in a flat format means those feeding the trolls cannot be quickly skimmed/collapsed..
I'll take my propaganda medium-rare.
Chuck Ponzi
I have been a lurker here for most of this blogs life. I don't come here for news or charts. I come here for translation, opinion and commentary. I have learned from many of the frequent posters here. I HAVE ALSO DISAGREED WITH MOST OF YOU SEVERAL TIMES. This is why I have found this site so valuable. As Tanta said if the thread gets stupid or pointless people don't want to read it. I think all of this talk on commenting and who can comment is beyond stupid and pointless. I just don't see what is so difficult with skipping over a certain poster's comments if you feel that it is not worth your time. Now with so many making stupid and pointless comments about commentatiors this whole blog has become a lot less interesting.
CR, Your most recent comments directed at Jas are very disappointing. I don't see the anger and venum that you do. I do see anger and venum from many others now being validated by your comment. You don't own the comments section of this blog. Trying to control comments will only make them stupid and pointless.
justhewax
Jas Jain, as I share the concern of so many on this blog, I hope that you'll keep on being Jas Jain.
Cripes, folks, this is the Internet! If JJ really feels shunned, JJ will change or leave. This hasn't happened for natural reasons. Unfortunately, we're seeing unintended consequences of the new paradigm that are no less of a bummer in this patch of real estate than on any cul-de-sac.
Tanta has subordinated ideas to personalities by boldfacing names before comments. And such a good writer knows better than to back into quotes, as every post now does.
"Just drop off the key, Lee."
Nice! And even more appropriate if you consider some of the words from Paul Simon's song.
“The problem is all inside your head, She said to me.
The answer is easy if you Take it logically.
I’d like to help you in your struggle To be free; ...
and get yourself free.
CR, Your most recent comments directed at Jas are very disappointing. I don't see the anger and venom that you do. I do see anger and venom from many others now being validated by your comment.
Thanks, justhewax. Someone if not afraid to tell the truth.
Yes, CR made sure that he says nothing against overt personal attacks on me and he DID MEAN to encourage attacks on me by telling the attackers that he will try to reign me down by asking me to post less, but he would do nothing to those who feel like attacking me on whim. I regret to say that part of it is bigotry. Their unstated goal is to harass me out of here. It is shameful. They are scared that I could be right in some of my negative forecasts of the future.
CR and Tanta suffer from the knowledge that they dont have. Sadly, many Americans share this characteristic. They both, especially, Tanta, suffer from serious over-estimation of their general abilities. I do think that they are intelligent and good at what they do, but they have serious behavioral deficiencies and deficiency of knowledge outside their narrow areas. They want to develop a Personality Cult! And I am a threat, it seem.
Propagandists are the most popular and likable commentators in America!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They have something to sell. They need to lure customers and I dont.
Anyway, I write what I believe and I could be wrong. Why cant people get this simple idea in their head?
Jas
I just love the new format of haloscan - I just fly by every time I see jas jain commenting.
Should have added....
Too much to lean
Too little time
IGNORE JAS
That should have bee "learn"
Jas, slow down turbo. Sorry for encourging and exciting you. My comments were directed at CR. I should be more clear.
CR, I guess we are all Troll feeders now. My point is as Tanta said back on the Comments thread "we all have to manage the ones who can't restrain themselves by ignoring them and not emulating them." I thought that this was the game plan. Publicly asking a poster to change their behavior will only feed their afliction and encourage others to get personal.
I realy enjoy this blog and thank all who have made it so great, especially CR and Tanta.
Back to lurkin' and learnin'...