Look on the bright side: We are past the April peak.
Is it all downhill from here? How did we improve over the past few months?
If we focus on what happened since April, we can get a handle on this and drag ourselves out of this quagmire. Bring on the diagnostic tools, even stem cell research...anything that could possibly isolate those elements that are turning this economy around.
The longer we delay, the greater the likelihood that this opportunity will be lost, the trend will be reasserted and we'll never know what happened.
Hey CR - have you looked at these debt levels Month '03/'04 vs Month '04/05 comparison? My guess is you have... Are we still trending up or is it flat or tending down?
Also I know your measure iof total debt YOY is better than the 'offical voodoo books'... but are there accounts 'off budget' that even you aren't catching or that only show up at year end?
dry fly, I haven't looked closely at YoY for very long. That might be an interesting project ...
I think everything shows up eventually in the National Debt, but there is definitely a question of timing. The other reasonable approach is to look at the reported General Fund deficit. The only approach I object to is the "unified budget" - the one most commonly used by politicians.
calmo: The bounce since April has been due to better-than-expected tax receipts. I read somewhere (maybe here) that the extra was basically due to capital gains taxes paid by people selling houses for big profits. When the housing market goes south, so will this juice.
gab: These numbers (I think) represent the actual debt accumulation by the federal government, without counting the SS surplus. The number you hear on the nightly news excludes intragovernmental debt (such as to the SS trust fund), which makes it less than it really is (since intragovernmental debt is still debt that must be repaid).
Look on the bright side: We are past the April peak.
Is it all downhill from here? How did we improve over the past few months?
If we focus on what happened since April, we can get a handle on this and drag ourselves out of this quagmire. Bring on the diagnostic tools, even stem cell research...anything that could possibly isolate those elements that are turning this economy around.
The longer we delay, the greater the likelihood that this opportunity will be lost, the trend will be reasserted and we'll never know what happened.
Hey CR - have you looked at these debt levels Month '03/'04 vs Month '04/05 comparison? My guess is you have... Are we still trending up or is it flat or tending down?
Also I know your measure iof total debt YOY is better than the 'offical voodoo books'... but are there accounts 'off budget' that even you aren't catching or that only show up at year end?
dry fly, I haven't looked closely at YoY for very long. That might be an interesting project ...
I think everything shows up eventually in the National Debt, but there is definitely a question of timing. The other reasonable approach is to look at the reported General Fund deficit. The only approach I object to is the "unified budget" - the one most commonly used by politicians.
Best Regards!
Dr. CR - this is the unified budget right? Do you know or have a guess what it would be like without the Social Security surplus?
Thanks,
gab
calmo: The bounce since April has been due to better-than-expected tax receipts. I read somewhere (maybe here) that the extra was basically due to capital gains taxes paid by people selling houses for big profits. When the housing market goes south, so will this juice.
gab: These numbers (I think) represent the actual debt accumulation by the federal government, without counting the SS surplus. The number you hear on the nightly news excludes intragovernmental debt (such as to the SS trust fund), which makes it less than it really is (since intragovernmental debt is still debt that must be repaid).
The Bureau of the Public Debt gives us the unvarnished truth, updated every weekday.
CR: I've been reading your blog for a while, quietly ... pretty insightful stuff! Entertaining, in a doomsday kind of way.