I was a little late in the thread, but pointed out that Weil is a hack this morning.

Yeah, well, I wasn't going to bother to say anything about it until I saw that Yves at naked capitalism and Barry at Big Picture both fell for it.

Crikey, but we can't seem to choose a narrative. Either servicers are entirely unresponsive (Gretchen Morgenson) or they're not unresponsive enough (Weil). What do investors want?

Tanta,

Well isn't that part of how this whole mess came to be - the "Gimme a AAA with junk bond yield" delusional investor? Wink

"What do investors want?"
Tanta | Homepage | 01.31.08 - 12:42 pm

A competent policy-maker like yourself that has the inhuman patience to make it clear to just about anybody.

i put this link on a different thread, but it's probably more relevant (kind of) here.

http://freddiemac.com/service/msp/pdf/foreclosure_avoidance_dec2007.pdf

Off topic, but in the letters section of the free weekly newspaper in my town of 80,000 people, a local realtor is calling on lenders to speed up the short sale process (it looks like they got a hold of the industry talking points)

Tanta, if you don't mind, I'd like to borrow a few choice passages from
your post of a couple weeks ago:

Calculated Risk: Phone Hustlers* Dislike Short Sale Processes

Okay, Weil's an idiot, but FAS 140 has much broader implications than the current little subprime mess. Once you move out into the rest of the securization world, who do you think the controlling parties are? Once you realize that some $1 million b-piece buyer is the controlling party and FAS 140 wants to put the $1 billion (with a B) whole deal on their balance sheet (they only invested $1 million, with two commas, mind you) - then you realize that the rule was revised by an accountant and would crush our entire financial system. Thats what's interesting - Weil missed the point, but not everything is just about subprime resi mortgages either.

Crikey indeed Tanta.

Simply, they need to read this blog more. No disrespect to them of course, I've read them with admiration daily for years. But there is a much higher level of expertise provided here in this area. Not unlike the expertise Dr. Setser at RGE Monitor provides for TIC data analysis, China, Petrodollars, etc.

Heck, I remember all the folks getting suckered by journalmalism leading to the Iraq war. Used to be we paid good money to investigative reporters, editors and had policies about media ownership...back when it was the Fourth Estate.

Oh well.

bacon- that report is kind of fluffy, dontcha think? The only thing that remotely seemed remarkable is that since 2005 the Interwebs have become twice as popular as a 'souce of information for avoiding default' among non-defaulters and defaulters alike.

I doubt if any of them are coming to CR, but just in case, maybe a public service UberNerdesque post would be in order.

In tommorrow's issue of IMF, there is a very interesting bit (pg.6) on ASF wanting to loosen FHASecure. At risk of having that Cecala, guy come and hang me upside down until the last fig newton drops from my pockets, I will only say that a whopping 417 loans rate-reset-related were done in the last four months of 07. If I'm reading that right - what's your take, bacon?

Tanta, actually I think it is one of the most important functions you have (T & CR) on the blog . . .

Prior to blogs, and particularly this one, and Duncan's, Media Matters, etc. this sort of thing would go totally unchallenged anywhere.

So you'd have a few informed people who would read it and shake their heads, but for the mass of everyone else it would be received wisdom.

There are repeat offenders, for whom more drastic measures are necessary (see e.g., Barry's woodshedding of Ben Stein).

So I think that posts like this one are among the most important that you do. I consider them PSAs.

I am sorry, but I do not understand the outrage here...

Weil's beef is not with whether the servicers are "wind-up toys", or whether they can make modifications. His beef is with the off-balance-sheet accounting treatment if those modifications are allowed.

If something generates earnings like an asset and losses like a liability, why the heck is it not on the balance sheet in the first place?

Put another way, if the original justification for allowing them off balance sheets was that they are just "clockwork", and it turns out they are not clockwork after all, shouldn't they be brought back on? As far as I can see, that is Weil's point. It has nothing to do with whether mortgages SHOULD be treated as clockwork; only how they should be accounted for.

Incidentally, weren't all these "off-balance-sheet" entities one of the primary enabling mechanisms for the entire crisis?

Tanta, there's a reason only your blog was cited by the Fed .. not Yves or Barry.

Zing!

Demanding that issuers take it all back onto their balance sheets as punishment for trying to mitigate losses to bondholders is beyond perverse.

But think of all the po' widdle bond holders, who've never heard of due diligence or risk pricing or mortgage servicing or defaults or foreclosures or REOs or declining real estate markets or declining asset values . . .

Everyone with money wants to park it in a safe investment with high returns -- but no investor wants to admit that "safe" and "high returns" are often mutually exclusive.

If the bag holders . . . er, bond holders . . . got suckered by the Wall Street CDO scam de jour, all I can say is -- welcome to the club.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hi Tanta,

My (equally incoherent to Charlatan's) worries about QSPE's are as follows:

1) did the buyers of the assets put amounts on their balance sheets to offset what the sellers got to take off, or do SFAS 140 deals make asset amounts disappear from the aggregate of balance sheets?

2) is anyone checking to see if the buyer counterparties have the strength to withstand the deluge now on the horizon, or is this going to be AMBAC and MBIA again in a few months?

Please reassure me on this. I really need to concentrate on important stuff like learning the T part for Beethoven's Op. 123 and writing a 50 page poem about the storm drains on the street outside my door. Just tell me that OFHEO used the right number for calculating Fannie's and Freddie's QSPE capital requirements and I can chuck finance over my left shoulder for good.

Statement of Sheila C. Bair, Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Strengthening the Economy: Foreclosure Prevention and Neighborhood Preservation; before the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs; U.S. Senate; 538 Dirksen Senate Office Building
January 31, 2008
FDIC: Error 404 - Page Not Found

Put another way, if the original justification for allowing them off balance sheets was that they are just "clockwork", and it turns out they are not clockwork after all, shouldn't they be brought back on?

No. If the servicer is managing a REMIC pool--think about the way a CDO manager or hedge fund manager "manages" a portfolio by buying and selling loans--then they're not really REMICs.

If all the issuer is doing is trying to collect as much principal and interest for the trust as is possible, the servicer is just servicing. To put the deal on the servicer's balance sheet is to say that the servicer should take all the credit risk.

The thing doesn't "generate earnings like an asset" to the servicer.

Incidentally, weren't all these "off-balance-sheet" entities one of the primary enabling mechanisms for the entire crisis?

REMICs have been off-balance sheet since the 80s. The problem is that off the issuer's balance sheet means on somebody else's balance sheet. And apparently that somebody else is now facing loss. The SEC is saying the servicers can try to mitigate that loss for the investor's balance sheet; in fact, it's apparently the servicer's obligation to do that if it maximizes recovery.

What "caused the whole thing" (at least in part) was the assumption that REMICs could be valued like a pool of T-bills or something that have no credit risk problems. As soon as an instrument has credit risk, there's the question of mitigating that risk. But SFAS 140 doesn't say you can make the issuer of the deal take back the credit risk you bought if you were too stupid to understand what credit risk is. Nor does it say that we can just make the word "managing" mean whatever we want it to mean today.

Compare this to the RE speculators: a bunch of people decided that RE can transact like stocks. You can just mark 'em daily and issue a sell order when you're ready to get out.

These folks are learning to the contrary. RE isn't that liquid, and transactions are long and expensive.

Yeah, so, mortgages aren't risk-free bonds.

what's your take, bacon?

yes, Shnaps, i believe you read that correctly.

Unfortunate member of 'dirty dozen' I gratefully thank you for usual clarification.

Cheers

Demanding that issuers take it all back onto their balance sheets as punishment for trying to mitigate losses to bondholders is beyond perverse.

I followed everything up until this line. Could you elaborate on "punishment" please? Are you referring to investors invoking repurchase clauses with their MBS/CDO issuers in case of large numbers of defaults?

Mortgage modifications too slow, FDIC's chief says - MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The mortgage industry is moving too slowly on modifying loans under risk of default, said Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in congressional testimony Thursday. Bair said credit problems are developing outside the subprime sector, and urged regulators and the industry to work quickly to develop programs to modify Alt-A and prime nontraditional loans. With prices falling and credit tightening, "hundreds of thousands of additional mortgage foreclosures" could be seen in the next few years. Lenders and homeowners alike might be better served by forgiving part of the debt, she said.

The active management thing is from back in the days when the agencies first used grantor trusts to securitize pools ... the IRS would tax them as associations (C corporations) if the trustee could actively manage the assets, while treating it as a grantor trust (pure pass through) if trustee was prohibited from active management.

When congress created new vehicles REMIC for securitizing they kept the active management rule to protect the fisc.

Just back from the bank where I drew $200,000 to bet on the Super Bowl.

I do this for a living so don't recommend others follow.

Bet on who? I'll bet on both sides in an attempt to "middle the game".

I take the Pats on the Money Line to just win the game and I'll take the Giants plus the 12 points in the spread bet.

I win both bets if the Pats win by less than 12 points i.e. I win the ML bet and the Giants +12.

If the Giants win or the Pats win by more than 12 (cover) I win one bet and lose one bet.

This is a very low risk strategy with a potential high reward. What is the odds if it working? About 1 in 7.

Just wanted to share a good use for HELOC funds that is a little outside the box.

I followed everything up until this line. Could you elaborate on "punishment" please? Are you referring to investors invoking repurchase clauses with their MBS/CDO issuers in case of large numbers of defaults?

Weil's assumption has to be that if the servicer took these things onto the balance sheet, that would be disadvantageous to them. (That's the only way I can understand his claim that the SEC is doing them a favor by letting them maintain the Q status.)

So no, it would be "punishment" because it would force the servicer to hold capital against an "asset" that it isn't "controlling." It's just servicing those assets per a servicing agreement.

The repurchase clauses, by the way, are another perfectly acceptable "exception" to the "brain dead" rule. They require repurchase at par only for defective loans only. That means that the trust gets 100% of principal back always, and creates an incentive for the issuer to not include defective loans.

Tanta,

I have to agree with Nemo on this issue. When the Banks sold morgages to the SPEs and took Billions in profits, it was based on transactions which were "arms length" (ie the Banks had no, or very very limited control, over the SPE). Now the Banks want to exercise significant control over the SPEs, and to keep their billions in profits at the same time. I say, take the loans back on their balace sheets and modifiy away!!! If some banks fail, that is capitalism, is it not?

"...anyone who pretended otherwise was an idiot."

Please excuse me. No jury of peers would claim otherwise? Probably not, given the accomplishments of the peer group in question.

Not withstanding, other ordinary and sane folks who're now picking up the tab would suggest investigation, prosecution and restitution in proportion to the fraud and/or theft determined.

We must discontinue both actions immediately, and discourage future perpetrations with accountability meaning the speedy directive to assess and enforce penalties for uncivil business practices.

As long as I'm asking for a level of general indignation that would demand equity at justice, ie., probably unlikely, here's another suggestion destined to remain a secret...

Manditory financial education beginning in grade school. We are, as a nation, (statistically speaking -- not CR, Tanta and many here) illiterates regarding these absolutely necessary to know and related subject matters:
- economic fundamentals
- money & credit
- banks & lenders
- personal accounting & finance
(checking, saving and credit accounts)
- fiscal & monetary actions
- valuation & risk
- financial statements
- budget & forecast
- correlation & myth
- mood & herding
- linearity & cyclicality
- technical indicators

That's a start. Add more if you like.

Now the Banks want to exercise significant control over the SPEs

Just asserting that doesn't make it true.

Please explain to me why you consider this "significant control."

Let's say I hire a fire department to protect my property. There is a fire, and the firemen decide it could be put out. They break my windows in order to get inside and douse the flames.

Are the firemen co-owners of my home, because they have the "right" to break my windows? Are they now co-owners of every house on the block, because they have been "controlling" my property?

I'm surprised I haven't seen more references to Bill Gross's op-ed piece in today's WaPo, which addresses this very issue.

He points out that our economic crisis, which was precipitated by the housing bubble, will not be solved by stimulating the economy through temporary gifts of cash but only by the government intervening to stabilize home prices.

And, you don't do that by an impersonal, gi-go,computer algorithm designed to yield the best cost-effective outcome but by an FHA type agency prepared to deal with each individual home-owner's need to have an affordable, secure and predictable mortgage.

William H. Gross - It's the Housing Market Deflation - washingtonpost.com

As long as I'm asking for a level of general indignation that would demand equity at justice, ie., probably unlikely, here's another suggestion destined to remain a secret...


Equity and making money are mutually exclusive.

Tanta can we change the "We are all subprime now" to "We are all AAA rated now"? It just sounds so much more upbeat. Wink

Speaking of actually thinking about loans, have you seen this news on FAS 114? It looks like the banks are actually going to have to address impairment on their loans! What a concept.

FASB Rebuffs Mortgage Bankers Request
For Relief From Statement 114 Standards

The Financial Accounting Standards Board Jan. 30 refused to add a future agenda item to consider allowing the mortgage banking industry to report troubled loans under Statement of Financial Accounting Standard 5, Accounting for Contingencies, rather than Statement 114, Accounting by Creditors for Impairment of a Loan.
The Mortgage Bankers Association asked FASB for help in addressing "the likelihood that hundreds of thousands of mortgage loans might need to be modified over the next two years" because of fallout from the subprime mortgage market meltdown.

FASB staff recommended against adding the project to its agenda. The board members agreed with its staff's assertion that FAS 114's guidance is clear regarding the required accounting treatment for troubled debt restructuring (TDR) for all loans, including smaller-balance homogeneous loans, such as those bundled in mortgage-backed securities.

The board was concerned that because most of these TDRs will be worked out by interest rate modifications, "which would not necessarily be captured under a Statement 5 approach," according to FASB staff, no losses would be recognized.

The FASB board agreed that allowing investors to evaluate the magnitude of a lenders' losses related to TDRs is the paramount consideration and that Statement 114 provides that disclosure, while Statement 5 does not.

"In my reading, Statement 114 appropriately addresses the type of loan restructurings that will take place," said FASB member George Batavik.

FAS 114 is "very clear when a lender adds a concession ... that a loss recognition threshold has been triggered," board member Leslie Seidman said. Statement 114 also "is explicit that the only loans that are scoped out are those at fair value."

FAS 114 in effect would require the use of discounted cash flow techniques in evaluating TDRs, and "most companies that have shared their views with MBA state they simply do not have the systems capability to measure impairments of modified smaller balance residential mortgage loans using a discounted cash flow approach," MBA's Dec. 5 letter said.

FASB was unsympathetic to this problem, with members saying lenders should have systems in place to record the terms of the loan from "day-one." The board suggested MBA seek relief in this area from the SEC or banking regulators.

A FASB staff member said lenders can evaluate impairment of debt under FAS 114 either on a loan-by-loan basis or aggregated, although to date lenders applying FAS 114 have not measured impairments on an aggregated basis.

FASB Notes Exemptions From FAS 140

The board also mentioned that the mortgage banking industry already had been granted some exemptions from FAS 140, Accounting for Transfers and Servicing of Financial Assets and Extinguishments of Liabilities, by SEC's Chief Accountant Conrad Hewitt, who said in a Jan. 8 letter that his office would "not object" to mortgage servicers modifying terms of loans to avoid default. The board agreed the industry did not need further relief from FASB standards at this time.
FASB staff also noted in its recommendation against the MBA request that MBA was seeking relief from FAS 114, which has been in effect since January 1995, not only for previously originated loans that were intended to be sold in secondary markets, but also for loans currently being originated. "Lenders should consider the costs to comply with Statement 114's requirements when continuing to offer teaser-rate loan programs," the FASB staff report concluded.

Finally, the staff pointed out that allowing lenders to use FAS 5 would create another divergence between U.S. generally accepted accounting principles and international financial reporting standards.

A meeting handout prepared by FASB staff is available at http://www.fasb.org/board_handouts/01-30-08.pdf.

By Lyda Phillips

Are there conflict of interest issues when issuers with first-loss retained interests also retain servicing?

Tanta --

Weil's assumption has to be that if the servicer took these things onto the balance sheet, that would be disadvantageous to them.

I'm sorry, but I did not think this discussion had anything to do with the servicers' balance sheets. I thought it had to do with the issuers' balance sheets.

As I understand it, the lenders set up these QSPEs to buy the mortgages, allow the lender to record a "gain on sale", and move them off of the balance sheet. As "Anonymous" said, the accounting rules allowed this because the QSPEs supposedly operate like "clockwork". And now, the SEC is "interpreting" the rules to allow the same treatment even if it is not clockwork anymore.

As far as I can tell, this is also Weil's entire point. What are he (and I) missing?

There’s NOW some rumor that the Fed may bail out the bond insurers. Tough to win when you’re playing within the rules and the other team is dragging everyone in the stands onto their side of the field.

This is the last day of the month. We have seen this type of trading activity before where the funds are pulling out every available stop to put lipstick on their pig statements. Usually unravels in the next couple of trading days...

Are there conflict of interest issues when issuers with first-loss retained interests also retain servicing?

I for one always preferred deals where the servicer has skin in the game. They work harder to prevent loss when they have to take it.

But they have to carry those retained interests on the balance sheet. They've never been able to get away from that.

The funny part here is that a lot of these PSAs have the "golden rule" standard of servicing: the servicer is obligated to do with the investor's loans whatever it would decide to do with its own loans.

Servicers who also have an investment portfolio (or other retained interests) are busy busy busy right now modifyin' and short-salin' and otherwise workin' out on their own portfolios. For these servicers to fail to offer loss-mit alternatives on securitized loans they don't own would be the fishy thing.

Seattle-

What's that moneyline number though-- +325?

So how are you structuring them to cover everything?

Tanta: But SFAS 140 doesn't say you can make the issuer of the deal take back the credit risk you bought if you were too stupid to understand what credit risk is. [my emphasis, thanks to Nemo for his query]

Now we're getting warm. Did SFAS 140 engineer enough balance sheet strength for the buyers of the risk so that the stupid losers would be able to pay up, or is "Counterparty Risk" going to feature on the cover of The Economist in a couple more weeks?

Thanks so much for your insight from another of the Dirty Dozen (Debi put me up to it, does that make it 13?)

Tanta,

'Please explain to me why you consider this "significant control".'

It is my understanding that even if a securitization agreement specifically provides that "no modifications can be made", admittedly an extreme example, but there may be some, this ASF "interpretation" would permit modifications to be done anyway. By which, I am trying to say that contravening the securitization agreement is exercising "significant control".

Here's what investors want.
The fears that were out there have been allayed somewhat,'' said Walter Bucky'' Hellwig, who helps oversee about $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama.Money's going to work in these oversold sectors like financials and consumer discretionary where you have the potential for the biggest bounce back.''
This guy couldn't coach footbal so he's running a hedge fund. Sheesh

As I understand it, the lenders set up these QSPEs to buy the mortgages, allow the lender to record a "gain on sale", and move them off of the balance sheet. As "Anonymous" said, the accounting rules allowed this because the QSPEs supposedly operate like "clockwork".

The SEC ruling on SFAS 140 just didn't have anything to do with gain on sale and "clockwork."

You can securitize and book gain on sale as long as you don't have some ability to repurchase those loans at less than par or something like that. In other words, it has to be a "true sale."

That doesn't mean that once the loan is sold, the servicer can never do anything on behalf of the new owner except collect payments. That is what the SEC letter Weil hates so much says, in simple terms.

The issuer might be the same party as the servicer, or they might be two parties. For clarity's sake I try to describe the party being accused of "management" here as the servicer, even if that party is also the issuer, since it is the party acting as the servicer who does these mods.

FBI targets senior bankers in far-reaching sub-prime fraud inquiry - Times Online

“America's Federal Bureau of Investigation is investigating senior banking executives for insider dealing and fraud as part of a criminal inquiry into the sub-prime crisis, the agent leading the inquiry said yesterday.”

“Bond insurers are among the other targets of litigation. These firms, which guarantee the payment of interest and principal of the bonds they underwrite in the event of a default, stand accused of failing to inform their investors of the true extent of the dangers posed by the sub-prime securities they insured.”

It is my understanding that even if a securitization agreement specifically provides that "no modifications can be made", admittedly an extreme example, but there may be some, this ASF "interpretation" would permit modifications to be done anyway.

Then I think you should go read it again.

This is on page one:

The servicer will not take any action that is prohibited by the pooling and servicing
agreement (“PSA”) or other applicable securitization governing document, or that
would violate applicable laws, regulations, or accounting standards. ASF’s Statement
of Principles, Recommendations and Guidelines for a Streamlined Foreclosure and
Loss Avoidance Framework for Securitized Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage
Loans, published concurrently with this document, analyzes how the framework
described in the Executive Summary is consistent with typical PSA provisions. The
ASF urges readers of this Executive Summary to review the full Statement.
• The ASF believes that this framework is consistent with the authority granted to a
servicer to modify subprime mortgage loans in typical PSAs. The ASF expects that
the procedures in this framework will constitute standard and customary servicing
procedures for subprime loans.

Market Standards & Practices

So what does a Servicer do if the borrower has no interest in a Mod? How is this captured in a risk assessment of any pool? Does it simply run the standard course of events?

What we have seen is that some borrowers can not be found. And, some just dont care because they are upside down. My take is relying on foreclosure figures as an indication of macro economic health is no longer so valid.

So what does a Servicer do if the borrower has no interest in a Mod?

Foreclose. Or take a deed in lieu or a short sale, possibly.

Pretty much all the "teaser freezer" plan said was that if the borrower could continue to make the old payment, you could accept that.

If the borrower isn't making payments, and does not agree to start up again, you foreclose.

I don't know what you mean by relying on FCs as an indicator. Wise folks have always looked at the roll rate of serious delinquency to FC start, and FC start to completion.

We are seeing that more and more FC filings result in real FCs. That means that there was nothing the servicer could offer that would work the loan out.

Thanks, bacon dreamz. I'm not sure I want to play Who Wants to be an Accountant?, but maybe other folks would.

See the link bd provided for explanations of the gain on sale dealie.

yes, Shnaps, i believe you read that correctly.

I thought I read the 417 right - I just wanted your take on the relative safety of my fig newtons.

One might conclude that the FHA has not done dilly poo thus far. Here is a link (anyone can pay-per-view it for 50 bucks). Or just wait for a related post to appear on CR. cough

Tanta,

Thanks for the clarification. I reread the Weil article, and he is basing his argument on trust charters setting up the SPE, not securtization agreements. Nevertheless, I think you are right to consder the systemic risk more important than contractual issues in this situation.

What do investors want?
Tanta | Homepage | 01.31.08 - 12:42 pm | #

They want 'more'...

I just wanted your take on the relative safety of my fig newtons.

your fig newtons are about as safe as an R around Tanta.

(thanks for returning mine, T.)

They want 'more'...

They want eggs in their beer. But you're probably the only person who hangs out here who has ever heard that phrase . . .

Tanta, I must say your patience truly is inhuman. Superhuman. Incredible, and beyond my very human patience.

I did get a good laugh out of the idea that anyone would draw up a PSA saying that the servicer couldn't modify any loans. To the best of my knowledge, this is one piece of stupidity that no one ever has committed. If anyone ever did, my guess is that the end investors might have a successful lawsuit on their hands!

To everyone that darkly suspects that Weil has a legitimate point here, somehow, I think you need to check your meds and stop listening to those voices. I truly and sincerely do not mean to be rude, but please think about the connotations of what you are alleging. If it were not for servicer's expertise and ability to handle problem loans, there would be no need to pay fees that range from .5% to .125%. Handling the loan payments could be done far more cheaply by contracting it out to a utility company.

But loans aren't electric bills, and it is far more expensive and complicated to either foreclose or figure out if it is cheaper to modify than to cut off electric service, and in fact, even utility companies do work out forbearances and modifications. THINK ABOUT IT.

I saw the article but I thought it wouldn't fool anyone.

OT

I feel the next year will bring sharply slowing growth and earnings all over the world, combined with mounting inflation pressures. If you want to invest in this view, how can you (aside from gold and silver)?

Oil, base metals and materials may be vulnerable to slower global growth. But maybe not food. I'm not sharp enough to go into futures, but I looked for a pure food play and bought some. It is DBA, a PowerShares ETF. It is a basket of futures with corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar. To summarize what I believe in for the next full year.

SRS
TWM
EEV
FXP
SLV
GLD
DBA

One or two of these might not pan out. But most will.

All right, which one of these commenters is Weil?

The crummy stocks beat quality stocks theme continued strong for another day. Even though the market is up big today, it's bearish.

It's just wrecking long/short hedge fund models. It has to be driven in part by the drying up of margin credit, which is similar to what was posted here earlier today about drying up of HELOCs, except of course on a bigger scale.

Hang in there if you are short crummy stocks. It will pass, and the short interest will be low enough for the bear to resume.

Tanta, I must say your patience truly is inhuman. Superhuman. Incredible, and beyond my very human patience.

Patience? It seems to me that my posts on Weil keep getting more and more hopelessly exasperated.

If he publishes one more article on this, I'm going to have to do to him what Barry Ritholz just did to Ben Stein. And there would go my G rating.

"Wise folks have always looked at the roll rate of serious delinquency to FC start, and FC start to completion."

True.

But, from a traditional perspective, FC was usually a result of loss of income or marriage discourse or death/taxes or unfavorable lending rates. Essentially, some impairment on the financial front.

It would seem to me it is somewhat different in this cycle as some folks "choose" to FC. (as opposed to having to do so). And this to me might say while the national FC numbers are moving up, maybe the economy is not so bad (save the housing sector).

Some reports have said up to 20% of RE purchases were for investment/flipping. As a guide then we can discount the national FCs num by equal amount and return to some level of normalcy in looking at the FC rates a gauge for macro economic condition. Equally, looking at impairments within a pool we can assess the risk by slicing the first 20% off the top and judge accordingly.

It is my understanding that underwriting is an art in historical mapping/behavior. To me we are not in any normal range, up or down. The question becomes how odd relative tot he norm is the current condition and how can you quantify the new behavior of walking away when a borrower is upside down. Example: For very % decrease in market value RE prices expect XY as a discount or increase in risk level of YX.

This URL refers to a non-financial site and maybe off-topic, or not...anyone wish to comment? (Concerns Mark-It.)

$100 Billion and Counting: How Wall Street Blew Itself up | | AlterNet

BTW, thanks CR and Tanta!

If he publishes one more article on this...

Now I know what I want for Christmas.

I'm sorta busy today, but still addicted to the blog. I read Weil's article quickly. From an accounting standpoint, I don't really see what the point is.
If you don't like that fact that VIE's exist, sorry. VIE's were intended to take out ventures not core to business, so the ongoing part of the business is the focus of readers. Lama's opinion is that VIE's should be in separate columns to the right of the core business with the total of core and VIE's to the far left, next to the descriptions...but nobody asked me what I thought.
If you think modifications of loans within reasonable terms requires some adjustment on the balance sheet, sorry again.

"But you're probably the only person who hangs out here who has ever heard that phrase . . .
Tanta | Homepage | 01.31.08 - 2:52 pm |"

Make that two.

Whadaya want, eggs in yer beer?!

Thanks for the 'splainin, Tanta.

Could Weil have a point to the extent that none of this shit should ever have happened off B/S in the first place? By B/S I mean balance sheet.... Wink

I may be a bumpkin on accounting, but I've never seen a satisfactory explanation as to why off B/S accounting should exist at all. I know why companies like it. They get to hide stuff from the investors, regulators, et al. Can't see why the benefit of sunshine wouldn't have helped all of us just as it would have in the Enron, WorldCom debacles.

people-- good, bad and indifferent, lucky and unlucky, high-maintenance and low maintenance.... and ruthless.

Thanks Pablo X. But I am just a poor humble (former) real estate lawyer, who haunts the blogs seeking the full explanation of why she has no closing business anymore, and just has to eke out her living doing probates, litigation, evictions, and defenses to foreclosures (messed with the mind of a foreclosure mill atty today).

I don't understand about not confirming sales. . . When I trade some shares, every year or so (sold a bunch in Sept/Oct, thank you goddess).
I call Merrill; I tell them sell all my shares of IBM, and a few days later a piece of paper comes in the mail saying we sold IBM, and now your money is in our money mkt fund (less than $100,000 thanks).

So what's supposed to happen when these types trade. And after 30, 60 or 90 days, who can remember? And what does that mean trades were manual? In big ledger books? Dickens comes to mind. Tiny scraps of paper?

RW,
The original intent was to focus attention on the core business. They also can function to mitigate losses on risky ventures (leveraged securities or new technology ventures), because they don't roll up to the parent (once the entity is broke, you just close it).
Then, it took all of 10 minutes for the manipulation to start.

Here is FAS 140. My read is that Weil is correct. I think it was written that way to put investors minds at ease and now it is in the way. http://www.fasb.org/pdf/fas140.pdf

Forgot to mention see text starting on pg 11.

Login or register to post comments
Syndicate content