CR4RE Newsletter: Sign Up Now to Receive February Issue

Has anyone sent a gift subscription to Gretchen Morgensen yet?

Do you accept Amex?

For some reason I couldn't sign up with my card.

Does it include the grass seed?

Gary,

Paypal was accepting AMEX in Dec. It's how I tip.

Call Amex. They're kinda twitchy about paypal.

Cheers,

It's been a great $60 investment thus far.

Tanta, plees I can haz mortgage pig in next issue?

For $60 I can buy a condo in Lauderdale, Florida.

FFDIC, true, but then you have to pay HOA, special assessments (which are kind of high when 3 of you are paying for the entire 20 unit building) etc on a depreciating asset.

This newsletter can MAKE you money.

Thanks Misean.

I'll just write a damn check, it will be easier than dealing with customer service.

This newsletter can MAKE you money.

CR, I think you found your marketing staff.

SRM Global Fund seeks to block BofA-Countrywide deal "That amounts to less than $8 a share."
Page expired - MSN Money

FFDIC - They must be upset that their investing strategy (bankrupting themselves) was foiled by BofA.

Think "The Producers" running a hedge fund.

I'll sign up it you have the weather reports worldwide like this.
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Asian mining stocks rose, led by BHP Billiton Ltd. and Zinifex Ltd., after the worst snowstorms in decades in China halted production and drove up prices of coal and zinc.

Winners and losers....

"Royal Dutch Shell reignited anger over excessive profits today after revealing it made $27.6 billion (£13.9 billion) in 2007 - a new record for a UK company."

"Exxon is expected to make $39.2 billion for all of 2007, just shy of its previous record of $39.5 billion in 2006, which breaks down to the company earning about $75,000 a minute."

Neal, the Bush administration has been a failure for most of us . . . but for the "base" it has been a smashing success.

I'll sign up if you include the term "Zillowed Away!!

Well I sign up anyway, but I still wantz my credit;-}

Someday this war's gonna end...

MOM,
Just an attempt at 'low dollar' humor in this increasingly frustrating 'high dollar' society. I'm NOT trying to make money. I'm trying to maintain a thread of sanity in the Greater Depression. Did Cheif Metalheart make it home?

There's a question I've been trying to answer for some time, and just today the answer hit me. It really woke me up.

We all know how much awareness and intelligence CR and Tanta have built into this blog, and how far ahead and on-target it has been.

So, the question is: How could rich, powerful, MBA-educated corporate sr. execs. just blindly ignore all the warnings about excessive debts, recession and economic damage? How can they keep ignoring them today when even the MSM is waking up?

How could the sr. mgt. team of Findlay, the jewelry chain, borrow $200 million from GE Capital to buy Bailey Banks & Biddle, a luxury jewelry chain, heading straight into a recession, when Findlay was already in hock by more than $200 million?

How could the sr. mgers. of Corus Bankshares brag in a quarterly news summary printed THIS WEEK that they not only are adding $1 billion in construction financing to high-rise condos in the 1st quarter of 2008, but they also are "diversifying" into construction loans for offices? (I'll guarantee you the OCC and FDIC will not let Corus make $1 billion more construction loans.)

What happened to these people's sense of responsibility or even self-preservation?

Here's the answer that hit me. When a really bad downturn is about to happen, and you're already this far in, turning back isn't an option.

It's no longer about trying to make money, save money, or save face. It's just about playing out the string, because you have no other choice. It's pretty sad. It's also what you saw today with the CEO of MBIA.

This one is gonna get bad. Soon.

$60 is truly a bargain. Jim Grant charges $850 -- and will cost you a lot more if you follow his investment advice.

good questions, and a satisfying answer to them from you,
But I'm curious why you're so confident that you're willing to "guarantee you the OCC and FDIC will not let Corus make $1 billion more construction loans."

Everyone,

Does it really matter if the monline insurance companies (MBIA,Ambac, etc.) keep their AAA rating?

My point, the concern is that if they lose their AAA rating they will be unable to garner any new business and will be forced to shut down.

But at this point in time, who out there really truly believes they are AAA and who in their right mind would bring them any new business?

Rich,the good old boys used to say that the hardest part of riding a Tiger is getting off.I agree on the timing as well,soon and bad

I posted on earlier thread ...Did anyone catch FL AG on Cavuto , they announced that CFCis responding to a subpoena seems some BK judges tipped him off about bad fees and subsequent investigation shows people signing papers for higher rates at closing than they were quoted. FL AG says they have others that they are planning on sending subpoenas as well...

How can it continue to happen?

Bubbles--the kind of bubble that results when you have been winning for so long it seems life forever. The bubbles that results when the politicians and media you trust tell you not to worry. The bubble that results from when everyone you know is doing just fine.

Although, there will be people who do just fine in this coming crisis, just as there are those who are doing just fine in Zimbabwe right now.

All you have to do is have high enough walls around your compound, enough guards to keep the rabble at by, a fast jet and an overseas account.

Unfortunately, those jewels of wealth are not evenly distributed enough to keep the economy humming, so most people and most businesses will suffer. So chain purveyors of luxury for the middle class (such a jewelers) will suffer. But Tiffanys will be just fine.

Hey MOMM, Maxed out Marketing Momma,

Red or white tonight?

Read this letter from Bill Ackman. He basically calls out the rating agencies about the monoline insurers. Great read!

Goode Value Investing & Trading Blog » Bill Ackman’s Letter to Rating Agencies Regarding Bond Insurers 

sychodave writes:

But I'm curious why you're so confident that you're willing to "guarantee you the OCC and FDIC will not let Corus make $1 billion more construction loans."

Because it is transparent that for every additional dollar of CRE construction loans Corus makes, the FDIC will end up paying out 100 cents on the dollar.

Add even more fuel to the fire- a whole bunch of the last couple of years of buyers are not even citizens:

Apartments going empty as hiring law hits migrants

Someday this war's gonna end....

subscribed, and bowing to the big mountain that blows when angry volcano.

[psychodave writes:
good questions, and a satisfying answer to them from you,
But I'm curious why you're so confident that you're willing to "guarantee you the OCC and FDIC will not let Corus make $1 billion more construction loans."]

I'm with psycho. I agree on the craps table leaving everything in and letting it roll, but rich, I don't see why you somehow think the OCC & FDIC are going to step in and shut the craps table down. It endangers FHLB & FDIC. THey won't. They are playing exactly the same table and will clean up after the last roll is over. That's it. Somewhere today I read about relaxation of accounting rules concerning valuation of L2 & L3 assets. I'm wondering if reserve requirements are also being relaxed. It's a conspiracy now. If the rate cuts and capital infusions along with stimulus packages larded with GSE & FHA hikes don't turn the tide the whole system will blow up all at once in a nuclear chain reaction. We are at the tipping point and prolly Treasury goombas are working over Moodys & S&P trying to get one last gasp...

CR & Tanta,

I just signed up. Youse guys rool!!

Just thought many would be interested in business cycle theory. Very nicely stated: THE REAL ESTATE CYCLE AND THE DEPRESSION OF 2008

I'm in. Might as well recycle some of this adsense money in a good way. Smile

I'm signing up, but it's only so I can give you money. You could fill it with limericks, for all I care (would you, please!?).

j/k, mostly.

This one is gonna get bad. Soon.
rich | 01.31.08 - 10:15 pm | #

You know what makes me feel better?

Make up some mint juleps and listen to something like this:

People Take Warning
Murder Ballads & Disaster Songs, 1913-1938

Amazon.com: People Take Warning! Murder Ballads & Disaster Songs 1913-1938: Various Artists: Music

Red Pill,

That's a good-looking box set. Are those Alan Lomax recordings?

CR / Tanta --

Thanks for the awesome blog (and thanks go to all of those who provide the insightful commentary as well !) and now the newsletter.

I consider now Calculated Risk a mandatory requirement in my pursuit of a "Real World" MBA.

Regards to all,

Al

CR,

When you throw one of these sales pitches up...it's all good...but it drives posters away.

At this time last night there were over 200...now 24.

Perhaps after an advert post, an open thread post. Many posters like to post off of a theme.

Just a thought.

Cheers,

CR and Tanta,

Count me in. Thanks for the freebies these last two years. I anxiously await the February issue.

Perhaps after an advert post, an open thread post. Many posters like to post off of a theme.

Misean,

It's a good thing to drive off posters.. there are already too many here due to the rising popularity of the site.

Tanta's Umlaut-nerd posts maybe drive some people away.. but That's A Good Thing Too (TM). (yeah.. i'm too lazy to look up the html for teh trademark symbol.. or for the umlaut.)

I could resurrect my Debtor's Union concept if you want some grist for the mill.. Smile

From the WSJ$ comes this story:

Merrill Pays Back Springfield, Mass., For CDO Purchase

Merrill Lynch & Co. has bought back, from Springfield, Mass., complex debt securities that rapidly collapsed in value during the credit crisis.

The securities, known as collateralized debt obligations, were repurchased at the same price of $13.9 million that Merrill initially sold them to the city last spring. These CDOs, which are pools of debt that included subprime mortgages, are worth only $1.2 million, according to a recent Merrill account statement for Springfield.

Merrill also agreed to pay outside legal fees incurred by the Springfield Finance Control Board, which overseas the city's finances.

Mark Herr, a Merrill spokesman: "After carefully reviewing the facts, we have determined the purchases of these securities were made without the express permission of the city. As a result, we are making the city whole and we have taken appropriate steps internally to ensure this conduct is not repeated."

Piddly amounts, for sure. But less than 10 cents on the dollar is a bit revealing, eh? And could Merrill have set a precedent here that will impact it and other IBs in future cases?

That's a good-looking box set. Are those Alan Lomax recordings?
rich | 02.01.08 - 12:01 am | #

No, I don't think he has anything to do with it. I just got the set though and am still exploring it.

It was compiled from 78 RPM recordings by these people.

Tompkins Square Records

and Long Gone Sound Production

As some have already noted... the moneyed peoples of the world already have LLCs and the like to allow them to accumulate debt and walk away without harsh repercussions.

I suppose the general argument is that.. well.. most corporations are creating value.. They run a business or engage in some sort of investment activity. Regular citizens are just rolling the dice trying to flip houses or buy 50 inch flatscreens.

The regular citizen deserves their debt.. they deserve to have that debt follow them around indefinitely. They deserve whatever interest rate that the banks and lenders deem fair.

Why is that? If you view this system to be so ill and malformed, why would you think the average citizen should do nothing to ease their debt burden?

The debt that people hold is part and parcel of this system.. one way for "things" to fundamentally change is for the average person to realize that their debt load is wrong. Consumer credit is extended to people so that they may become indebted.. and then spend the rest of their adult lives paying off the interest on that debt.

Fine.. I accept that it is not rational to max out one's credit cards to make ends meet and to purchase gewgaws... but rationality infrequently plays a roll in our decision making processes.

Over the arch of history.. radical behaviour causes change.. or maybe change brings about radical behaviour... i'm not sure which comes first. You think people are just going to hit the salt mines and pay off the credit card companies for ever after?

That may be true... but.. I think that is a sad prospect.. Individuals have not benefited from big ass TVs or new cars on loan.. the entities that collect the interest on their purchases.. well, those entities are benefiting.

What is fundamentally wrong with debtors collectively bargaining for better terms on the debts they owe?

More pointedly, what is wrong with people realizing they've made a big mistake.. and then acting to correct that mistake?

oh.. and I mean..

Acting to correct that mistake collectively as a union since that is the main way the average person can wield power..

..as a group.

If FDIC has imposed a MOU on a bank it can and does restrict lending in certain circumstances. If Corus or any other bank has not signed/agreed to a MOU, C&D or some other formal regulatory enforcement action then it is typically free to lend usually without restrictions except those imposed by the bank's loan committee, formal written lending policy and current board of directors. If I am missing something here I'm sure someone will offer a response to assist us.

Tanta/CR,

Marketwatch has an article by Thomas Kostigen.

A matter of pride
No one should make it easy to walk away from your mortgage

I know for sure people will have different ideas on the issue. CR wrote about the same thing earlier. I would like to hear what you say about it. Personally I think he has some good points. If walkaway becomes acceptable, everyone will pay a price for the risk of walkaway in the future.

Americans need to be responsible, but how to make it happen??

Neal,
In my view, the oil companies' profits are coming from the speculative bubble in oil futures. One can't rationally get angry at RD Shell for making so much money. Speculators push up futures prices, the OPEC countries are saying that prices and fundamental supply data are out of whack, and the oil majors can't get access for exploration because most countries with significant reserves are keeping those reserves off limits to the oil majors. Recently refiners in the US were actually losing money refining gasoline, because about $3.00 a gallon is the limit that the US consumer is willing to pay and the cost per barrel to the refiners near $100 resulted in negative refining margins.

FORTUNE
'It's going to be much worse'
Famed investor Jim Rogers sees hard times ahead for the US and a big opportunity looming in China.
Jim Rogers: 'It's going to be much worse' - Jan. 31, 2008

"A matter of pride"

max profits and all else will look after it self.

Walk, stand up and walk. Stick it to the big man. Just walk!

YamhillMan, I don't usually comment much on oil & gas having grown up along Houston's ship channel and living in Texas with an ex-wife who worked for Shell Oil. The London Times has several articles this evening including this piece titled: Shell Chief blames speculators for oil price...you may find of interest.
Shell chief blames speculators for oil price - Times Online

Thread music for CR4RE Newsletter: Piano In The forest...
YouTube
- Piano In The Forest (Instrumental Music)

freebirdinblue writes:
Marketwatch has an article by Thomas Kostigen. A matter of pride.

No one should make it easy to walk away from your mortgage Thomas Kostigen's Ethics Monitor - MarketWatch

Thanks for the article, Freebird. Here's a quote from it that sums up my feelings on the matter:
"The market went down. Do they get to walk away? When stocks fall, how many people get to refuse to take losses?"

Misean writes:
CR,

When you throw one of these sales pitches up...it's all good...but it drives posters away.

What a pleasant thread... please do these more often...

Sad eli sad.. no one care about Debtors' Union here...

everyone too fiscally responsible.. I am too though... I have no debt.... but that doesn't stop me from seeing what it's done to many people around me.

Here's a link to The Mario Savio speech about throwing yourself upon the gears.. to keep the machine from working:

speech

If that doesn't inspire you... you're too rational for your own good. Smile

if you don't wanna watch the youtuber.. here's the quote:

“There’s a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart, that you cant take part, you can’t even passively take part, and you’ve got to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus, and you’ve got to make it stop! And you’ve got to indicate to the people who run it, to the people who own it, that unless you’re free, the machine will be prevented from working at all!”

Well, no other comment other than the oil companies are winners today. This pehaps points to the durability of resource base investing as opposed to financial plays.

At this time last night there were over 200...now 24.

Misean - It's Friday, 5PM on the East Coast. Occam's razor, d00d.

Sorry, Misean, I just noticed I'm 'first' on a repeat post, which apparently comes with original-post-comments in tow.

I would have to agree with Jim here:

"I'm extremely worried," he says. "I have been for a while, but I just see things getting much worse this time around than I expected." To Rogers, a longtime Fed critic, Bernanke's decision to ride to the market's rescue with a 75-basis-point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate only a week before its scheduled meeting (at which time they cut it another 50 basis points) is the latest sign that the central bank isn't willing to provide the fiscal discipline that he thinks the economy desperately needs.

"At this time last night there were over 200...now 24.

Misean - It's Friday, 5PM on the East Coast. Occam's razor, d00d."

Well, it's up to 88 now. Guess some people got home, nuked some pizza rolls, and logged in.

Or picked up a 12 pack of Olympia and a bag of pork rinds.

Dudes, I peruse the from the bar. Who needs to be home to get knowledge?

I agree on the craps table leaving everything in and letting it roll, but rich, I don't see why you somehow think the OCC & FDIC are going to step in and shut the craps table down.
Tactical Flashlights
r c helicopter
video game

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