Is it ok if I connect wal-mart to muni bonds and infrastructure build out during the housing bubble/liquidity implosion?
Follow the money kids!
Brad Howard requested that the Council issue a letter of support of his efforts to locate a big box retail store or distribution center in Holbrook. Mr. Heward stated that he has had contact with Wal-Mart and a letter of support would be icing on the cake. Mr. Heward also stated that the Wal-Mart in Taylor is not a done deal due to the site which has been chosen was once a landfill and there appears to be settling issues. Councilmember Carlisle made a motion to issue a letter of support of Mr. Hewards effort to bring business to Holbrook. Councilmember Cobb seconded and the motion carried unanimously.
It definately is time for the "no shit, sherlock" moment in America. Land of the brave, home of the free.
The moneyed interests' have been sucking our wealth dry with crap. There are no rocket scientists on wall street, get it. All of their models are shit, just like the " CAPM, the Nobel prize winning Black-Scholes derivative models, Eugene Fama, and all the rest of them. " Finance is an adaptive system which means that as soon as we all believe one thing, an exception appears (GS).
The markets are not normally distributed. It is a mathematical illusion. Black Swan, fat tails etc are crap. The markets are not any nightengale efficient, there are no "primitive securities" in the short run. These are only post facto artifacts.
The financial markets are so manipulated that the century we are revisting is the 20th, as in 1920's. Let us hope that we revist the era of labor (consumer) and government savvy of the 50's and 60's when it's over.
Have a good weekend. By the way, I predict the markets ......
You're kidding right? That's an oxymoron. Yeah boy those 50's and 60's, before Europe and Japan pulled there arses out of the bombed out rubble WWII left behind sure was an era of Gov't savy. Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions (yeah it was cool, but really, did nothing), Vietnam and Korean wars, Mosadegh and the Shah...
Yes, SIV's are dead. Finished. We're never gonna see them again. A failed product. We're all much wiser. ....So,...what name are they going to use for them next time?
and while the good citizens of Florida suffer penalties of 2% and probably more on their life savings, Wall St is in full celebration mode of its snapback rally. just wait til after the holidays u chumps...
if you're the one who went long this rally, i was the one shorting into you.
i wouldn't sleep too well this weekend b/c even if you do get a bump up from a rate cut, it will be short lived if at all since its already been priced in. and if its only a 0.25% cut; uh oh.
The space program was the best investment America made in the latter half of the 20th century, The ROI is inestimable. Everything from computers to polymers. And in those days, NASA was the Civilian Aerospace agency of the US. We shared most, if not all, of the technology we developed with the world.
The American effort to get to the moon was initiated by JFK, who set what, at the time, was the somewhat absurd goal of successfully landing a man on the moon and returning him successfully to earth within a decade (we had yet to send a man into space). We met that goal. Much of the technology we use today would not exist without the space program.
If I could pick one thing I'd like a political leader to do, it would be to set a similar goal for global energy self-sufficiency. Now, there's an investment in the future. Alas, cream no longer rises to the top.
Yeah in the negative direction. If I feel like pulling up the research on this tonight I will. But it the cost of the program was well in excess of any return. Computers already existed, and business was paying for improvements. Polymers also existed.
"Much of the technology we use today would not exist without the space program."
Well I'd like some proof of that assertion.
In fact, because of Kennedy's mandate, NASA went for off the shelf tech, because they didn't have time to wait for the really interesting stuff to come on line. Research the ion engine a bit. Because of the Apollo program we are still using WWII technology to get into space.
This really isn't the place to debate this, so let's leave it at that. If you know of a way to privately discuss this via email or something, I would be happy to do so tomorrow.
Okay Misean: Normally I don't service ... but I think anj unexamined life is not worth living here we go .....
"Yeah boy those 50's and 60's, before Europe and Japan pulled there arses out of the bombed out rubble WWII left behind sure was an era of Gov't savy. Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions (yeah it was cool, but really, did nothing), Vietnam and Korean wars, Mosadegh and the Shah.."
Korea and Vietnam ... the US Military is not designed to conquor and destroy, like a Roman Legion. Hopefully never will be. We should have learned.
Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions... and ? Knowledge is unrelenting.. your problem.
Mosadegh muslim africa stuff. By the way, where is Europe in stopping the genocide. You mention something about them. They passed on Iraq (smart) why aren't they in Mosadegh (sp?)
S&P loves the investment banksters,
All the little banksters of the world.
Red and yellow, black and white,
They are precious in his sight.
S&P loves the little banksters of the world.
Everything is AAA in its own way.
Like the HELOC, 80/20 on a snow-covered winter's day.
And loan is beautiful, in their own way.
Under Paulson's heaven, the world's gonna find the way.
There is none so blind as he who will not see.
We must not close our minds; we must let our thoughts be free.
For every hour that passes by, we know the world gets a little bit older.
It's time to realize that beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder.
And everything is AAA in its own way.
Like the $800k condo, or a snow-covered winter's day.
Oh, sing it children!
Everybody's AAA, in their own way.
Under God's heaven, the world's gonna find the way.
We shouldn't care about the pay stubs, or the number of his flips.
Don't worry about what shows from without, but the love that lives within.
And we're gonna get it all together now; everything gonna work out fine.
Just take a little time to look on the good side my friend,
And straighten it out in your mind.
And everything is AAA in its own way.
Like the starry summer night, or a snow-covered winter's day.
Ah, sing it children!
Everybody's AAA in their own way,
Under Paulson's heaven the world's gonna find a way.
One more time!
Everything is AAA in its own way.
Like corporate bridge loan, or a snow-covered winter's day..
"Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions... and ? Knowledge is unrelenting.. your problem."
I dunno, I guess stealing money at gun point from the citizenry to develop technology to blow up the world is good in your view. I find it reprehensible.
"the US Military is not designed to conquor and destroy, like a Roman Legion."
Tell that to the Afghan's and Iraqi's.
"Mosadegh muslim africa stuff."
???????????????? psst..come here...Mosadegh was elected prime minister of Iran in the 50's...
Now that Fla. has supposedly come clean, when does the pension confessional officially open???
Coming clean and not having a problem remaining are two different things.
The run on the LGIP is unlikely to happen on the FRS (Florida Retirement System) funds. The employees/retirees are not demand depositors like the LGIP participants are. That was a major error in the pool design. FRS supposedly has some problem investments as well. Whether they are bad enough to 'break the buck' remains to be seen.
Mohammad Mosaddeq (Mossadeq (help·info)) (Persian: محمد مصدق Moḥammad Moṣaddeq, also Mosaddegh or Mossadegh) (19 May 1882 5 March 1967) served as the Prime Minister of Iran[1][2] from 1951 to 1953. He was democratically elected to the parliament, and as leader of the nationalists was twice appointed prime minister by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, after a positive vote of inclination by the parliament.[3] Mossadegh was a nationalist and passionately opposed foreign intervention in Iran. He was also the architect of the nationalization of the Iranian oil industry, which had been under British control through the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), today known as British Petroleum (BP).
He was eventually removed from power on August 19, 1953, by military intervention. The coup d'état was supported and funded by the British and U.S. governments and was led by General Fazlollah Zahedi [4]. The Mohammed Mosaddeq - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
American operation to encourage it was run by CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt, Jr.,[5][6] the grandson of U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt, and came to be known as Operation Ajax,[5] after its CIA cryptonym, and as the "28 Mordad 1332" coup, after its date on the Iranian calendar.[7] Dr. Mosaddeq was imprisoned for three years and subsequently put under house arrest until his death. He is, in many countries, considered a symbol of anti-imperialism
Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions... and ? Knowledge is unrelenting.. your problem."
I dunno, I guess stealing money at gun point from the citizenry to develop technology to blow up the world is good in your view. I find it reprehensible.
your problem
"the US Military is not designed to conquor and destroy, like a Roman Legion."
Tell that to the Afghan's and Iraqi's
Good, you get what I'm saying
"Mosadegh muslim africa stuff."
???????????????? psst..come here...Mosadegh was elected prime minister of Iran in the 50's...
The American Securitization Forum wrote the rate freeze presented to the public by the President and the Treasury Secretary.
It can be found it at americansecuritization.com
The framework allows servicers to modify loans without borrower signatures
Source: American Securitization Forum, Streamlined Foreclosure and Loss Avoidance Framework for Securitized Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans, Executive Summary, December 6, 2007, page 13, third paragraph from bottom of page
According to the American Securitization Forum's Framework for the rate freeze, borrowers will not have to document current income to be eligible for refinancing, even if they received initial loans with embellished incomes
Source: American Securitization Forum, Streamlined Foreclosure and Loss Avoidance Framework for Securitized Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans, Executive Summary, December 6, 2007, page 3, FICO test
Counseling and modification expenses are to be charged to securitized trust cash flows, so service providers, like Countrywide, which has a representative on the board of the American Securitization Forum, will profit from the process.
Source: American Securitization Forum, Streamlined Foreclosure and Loss Avoidance Framework for Securitized Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans, Executive Summary, December 6, 2007, page 7, first full paragraph
Appraised value for modifications are based on the date of origination, even if the current value is much less.
Source: American Securitization Forum, Streamlined Foreclosure and Loss Avoidance Framework for Securitized Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans, Executive Summary, December 6, 2007, page 2, second bullet
Some of the firms that may profit from the rate freeze are members of the industry group that authored the plan.
Back to the Mortgage Plan - Add to the things that I don't understand...
THE PLAN's purpose is to streamline the process because the servicers don't have the qualified staff to do it piecemeal (i.e. "right").
But it seems to me that the process of a servicer dealing with a borrower should be much less time-consuming at this point than at origination, when servicers had to deal with providing competing (and therefore multiple) quotes.
Also, the resets should occur at about the same rate as the loans were written; so the load on the servicers don't necessarily need to be crammed into a short time period.
One possible reason that the effort might be heavily front-loaded is the fact that up to now most FC's have occurred before rate resets--borrower can't even handle the initial rate. If that's the case, keeping these folks on the hook is no favor.
if you're the one who went long this rally, i was the one shorting into you.
i'm shorting into you, too.
suckers.
America suffers from a combination of denial (like a drug addict) and privilege syndrome (like a suburban teenager). The majority of people in the U.S., including james, just can't conceive of anything other than oil-driven, mall-destined prosperity.
i think its important to understand why the mkts rallied the last 2 wks. IMO it was do or die for the hedge funds after the Primary Dow Theory Bear Mkt Sell Signal triggered on 11/26.
we were headed for a crash and they needed a coordinated effort to reverse the trend before the month/year end closeout of the books. on 11/27 i remember hearing a CNBC interview of a hedge fund manager who said he was fundamentally bearish but was buying stocks. Mark Haines asked for clarification and the manager paused and explained in a halting voice that he headed up 2 hedge funds and they needed to finish up at year end. so they were buying and hard despite their beliefs.
these types of insights are priceless. in Sun Tzu's The Art of War understanding what your opponents is thinking is critical to triumphing over him.
Yeah, this is hardly a surprise. They killed a bunch of stores this summer. Their business model was poor. Smaller parts retailers did better with IT pro's and box stores like Best Buy started thing like remote repair services.
so with Circuit City, Best Buy, and now CompUSA suffering, the NDX rolls on?
with the QQQQ and the SPX at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement levels from their previous highs, will they be able to push thru these resistance barriers?
Easier access to capital for small public firms is on the way after the Securities and Exchange Commission lifted heavy regulations that had spooked investors.
On Nov. 15, the SEC voted unanimously to adopt changes to Rule 144 which governs the holding and selling of restricted company securities.
Smaller public companies often offer restricted securities stocks or bonds not registered with the SEC or publicly traded to private investors as a way of raising cash quickly. The company sells the securities at a discount, and investors then sell them at market value.
As the law stands, investors must hold the securities for a year before they can sell them, and when they do sell, they are limited to selling 1 percent of the companys outstanding securities per quarter.
The revisions to the rule which will go into effect 60 days after a final draft is published in the Federal Register reduce the holding period to six months and lift all limitations on sales volume.
This removes a great deal of risk from an investor standpoint because the securities can be sold before prices drop.
The longer you hold a security, the greater the risk that it will decrease in value, said Irvin Brum, chair of the corporate and securities department at Ruskin Moscou Faltischek in Uniondale.
Looser investing standards will boost public investments that are particularly important to Long Islands small-business driven economy, Brum added.
Investors are subject to Rule 144 when they either invest in a public companys restricted securities, or a private company in which they hold securities goes public.
Private investments in public equity or PIPE investments are becoming an increasingly popular source of financing for small companies. Investors are expected to pump $45 billion into the public equity markets in 2007, according to PlacementTracker, which researches PIPE and other private investments.
This has been a booming market in the last five years, Burm said.
Back in 2000, PIPE investments reached $24.4 billion.
The changes to Rule 144 will also eliminate pricey, time-consuming registration requirements on small firms.
In the past, when investors bought securities and didnt want to hold them for the whole year, they would require the company to register the securities with the SEC. Once the securities were registered, they could be freely traded on the public markets, thus giving the investors access to the shares eight months sooner.
Ira Halperin, co-chair of the corporate and securities department at Meltzer, Lippe, Goldstein, & Breitstone, said such registration could cost over $50,000 and take up to four months.
Burm said some of these changes are being implemented to combat growing Sarbanes-Oxley costs. Financial reporting tied to Sarbanes can be a huge fiscal burden on small companies that dont have the internal structure to comply.
In recent years, the general trend has been against going public,
Some of the firms that may profit from the rate freeze are members of the industry group that authored the plan.
harlynman
Now why doesn't that surprise me? This is like the S&L debacle all over again. The same S&L owners that lost their bank to the FDIC later bought the assets backing the bad loans at firesale prices. The system is broken. Capitalism run amok.
A lot. Billions and billions. The ones in the article are small fries. That's the way the downgrades are going now. Hit the small fry's and hope the mrket doesn't notice the elephant in the living room.
Dec. 7, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) --
NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of credit card lenders mostly fell Friday on continuing concerns about the decay of credit quality.
Stifel Nicolaus analyst Chris Brendler downgraded American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) to 'Hold' from 'Buy,' forecasting more losses from unpaid credit card bills next year. The reeling housing and mortgage markets will put 'significant' pressure on consumer credit, he said.
Kenneth A. Posner, an analyst with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) , downgraded Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE:COF) based on expectations for higher unemployment. He thinks losses on credit card debt could reach 6.5 percent, while investors probably do not expect losses of more than 5.5 percent, he said.
'All eyes are focused on credit, but the market may not yet have discounted what we see as the full extent of the looming cycle,' he said.
Credit crunch!!
Stifel Nicolaus analysts today, who believe the global credit bubble is only beginning to unwind, and that the pressures will continue to be felt throughout 2008..."'Simply put, risk was underpriced, leverage was too high, and structures were too aggressive,'" write Chris Brendler and Michael Widner of Stifel. 'As this unravels, it is putting enormous pressure on balance sheets and valuations, causing lending institutions (including hedge funds and private equity) to pull back at a time when borrowers (both consumer and corporate) need it most.'"
Stifel Nicolaus downgrades American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) from Buy to Hold.
The firm also lowered its FY08 EPS estimate on American Express from $4.05 to $3.55. Stifel Nicolaus said it expects the issues in the housing/mortgage markets and the related credit crunch to have major economic effects on consumer confidence. Increasing delinquencies in the credit card sector in 2008 should lead to higher credit losses for American Express, according to Stifel Nicolaus.
Stifel Nicolaus analysts today, who believe the global credit bubble is only beginning to unwind, and that the pressures will continue to be felt throughout 2008..."'Simply put, risk was underpriced, leverage was too high, and structures were too aggressive,'" write Chris Brendler and Michael Widner of Stifel. 'As this unravels, it is putting enormous pressure on balance sheets and valuations, causing lending institutions (including hedge funds and private equity) to pull back at a time when borrowers (both consumer and corporate) need it most.'"
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Defaults on junk bonds are expected to skyrocket in the coming year as economic growth slows, the investment rating service Moody's said Thursday.
The rate at which speculative-rated companies will default on their debt - commonly referred to as junk bonds - is projected to jump to 4.2 percent, more than four times as high as the present 1 percent rate, according to Moody's default analyst Kenneth Emery.
Emery's projection is based on the assumption that economic growth in the United States will slow considerably in the coming year, but that there won't be a recession.
If the nation were to see a full recession, "default rates could increase to near double-digit (percentage) levels," he said in a press release.
The current global default rate is at a nearly 26-year low, a result of several years of easy credit conditions. It is down from 1.9 percent a year ago.
Lenders only began tightening their terms in July amid the first signs of the subprime mortgage-inspired credit crunch.
"Current rates reflect the easy credit conditions of the past couple of years ... and strong economic growth which has allowed issuers to make their debt service payments," said Emery in the release.
The percentage of borrowers whose debt is trading at junk levels reached 10 percent in November, its highest level in almost five years, and up from 7 percent last month.
As of the end of June, there were about $45.5-trillion (U.S.) worth of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding. That's a 72-fold increase in just six years.
CDS are, as I've mentioned in previous columns, essentially, insurance against the possibility of a bond defaulting on its payments. Everybody and his dog has been busily writing CDS protection for years now, and it has been pretty much of a no-brainer way to make buckets of money - kind of like selling flood insurance during a drought - since, like, it's different this time, dudes, nobody ever defaults any more.
The thing is, lately the credit-fallout rain just won't let up and, as Led Zeppelin so succinctly put it, "If it keeps on raining, levee's goin' to break."
So, default rates at historic lows, no worries then, eh? Well, not exactly. Default rates are a lagging indicator. By the time defaults begin to rise noticeably, it's already too late. A better predictor of future problems is Standard & Poor's distressed ratio. S&P defines "stressed" debt as bonds that trade at an option-adjusted spread of 600 to 800 basis points over government bonds (the "risk-free" alternative), and "distressed" debt as bonds that trade at 1,000 basis points or more over government bond yields. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) A distressed 10-year bond, then, would yield roughly 14 per cent. Yow! That's a whole lot of beeps.
In their most recent Distressed Credit Report, S&P points out that in November, the distressed ratio - the number of distressed credits divided by the number of speculative-grade issuers - rose to 4.9 per cent from 2.3 per cent in October. That's the biggest increase in five years.
The number of companies with debt issues trading at distressed prices rose from 120 in October to 224 in November. Mind you, the total amount of distressed debt was a mere $36.2-billion on Nov. 15, which is a drop in the bucket compared with the ocean of CDS insurance outstanding, but still up more than four times from the $8.6-billion total reported in October. Include the 600- and 800-basis-point thresholds - the merely stressed debt, the stuff that's not quite under water yet - and the total amount of affected debt is $165.3-billion. Okay, call it several drops in the bucket.
Even speculative-grade credits (junk bonds, basically) that weren't stressed or distressed saw their average spreads widen from 392 basis points over Treasuries on Oct. 13 to 502 beeps over on Nov. 15. They may not be stressed yet, but at that rate of spread widening, they aren't that far off.
Okay, so here's the scary part. Over the past 25 years, an average of 10.1 per cent of all global entities rated B-minus and 26.3 per cent of all the entities rated triple-C-plus or lower, defaulted within one year. During 2007, 48 per cent of all new junk bond issues were rated B-minus or lower. It won't take some 20-sigma, Black Swan, fat-tail, highly improbable exogenous event to cause
"Okay, so here's the scary part. Over the past 25 years, an average of 10.1 per cent of all global entities rated B-minus and 26.3 per cent of all the entities rated triple-C-plus or lower, defaulted within one year. During 2007, 48 per cent of all new junk bond issues were rated B-minus or lower. It won't take some 20-sigma, Black Swan, fat-tail, highly improbable exogenous event to cause"
Right, so figure out a way to defend a stagflation/inflation scenario. You've already pointed to a serious deflation...so the above are extra credit.
Subprime scapegoat is toast, the market is back on track with a 72 hour case of subprime flu, versus global panic; DOW 15000 within 2 weeks!!
Yields on 10- year notes fell last month the most in more than five years on concern that subprime mortgage losses will deepen.
``The market is coming to the realization that the worst is behind us and bond yields are supposed to be higher,'' said Joseph Balestrino, a senior portfolio manager in Pittsburgh at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $21 billion.
Ten-year note yields rose 9 basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 4.11 percent at 4:56 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 1/4 percent coupon due in November 2017 fell 23/32, or $7.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 5/32.
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade indicated a 24 percent chance that policy makers will lower the 4.5 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by a half- percentage point at their meeting Dec. 11, compared with a 36 percent likelihood yesterday. The odds of a quarter-point cut were 76 percent.
The market's priced to an extreme outcome,'' said Peter Kretzmer, senior economist in New York at Bank of America Corp.You have this dichotomy that seems to be going on between financial market behavior and the economy.''
After falling below 4 percent last week for the first time since 2005, 10-year yields will rise to 4.325 percent by year- end, according to the median forecast of the 21 primary dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve. The increase would mean a capital loss of 2.21 percent, Bloomberg data show. Ten- year notes returned 12 percent since yields rose as high as 5.3 percent in June, Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes show.
The Fed said Nov. 20 that it expects the economy to expand 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent in 2008. The median estimate in the Bloomberg survey is for 2.1 percent growth this year and 2.4 percent in 2008.
What concerns bond investors is that the slowing economy may lead the central bank to lower interest rates even though the dollar's 12 percent decline on a trade-weighted basis this year and the 61 percent increase in crude oil prices are causing inflation to accelerate. The consumer price index increased 3.5 percent in October from a year earlier, the fastest pace since August 2006, the government said Nov. 15.
Stagflation Danger
The last time the economy suffered through slowing growth and rising inflation, or stagflation, was in the 1970s. The 10- year note's yield rose to 10.3 percent by 1980 from 5.89 percent at the end of 1971.
I think we have some version'' of stagflation now, said Paul McCulley, a money manager at Newport Beach, California- based Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world's biggest bond fund.We're importing a degree of inflation with the weaker dollar and oil prices, which the Fed can't do anything about. The economy is weaker.''
Any evidence of growth will be enough to end the Treasury rally, said Joseph Balestrino, a senior portfolio manager in Pittsburgh at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $21 billion in bonds.
The government is forecast to say this week that the economy accelerated at a 4.9 percent annual pace last quarter, faster than its initial estimate of 3.9 percent on Oct. 31, according to the median estimate of 60 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Historically speaking, most of the yield decline has already occurred,'' Balestrino said.It's hard to be wildly bullish at this point unless you're calling for a recession. Yields will have to back higher.'
They were a private equity leveraged buy out that totally flopped. They had a great location in White Plains, a pretty affluent NYC suburb, where everybody used to go to buy PCs and laptops. But they shut it down in a sleezy way. Every week, you would drive by there and see "CLEARANCE" signs, only when you went inside they had like maybe three things on clearance. This went on for weeks, like a retail version of the Terminator, dying piece by piece. I knew retail was in trouble when CompUSA coundn't make it in White Plains. I'm telling you, Circuit City is next.
you are probably right about why the market rallied. as long as hedge funds can scrape together two nickels worth of leverage, they can engineer a brief rally. But the momentum is dying. The next chapter, they will scrape their nickels together to go short. I really feel sorry for the amateur longs right now. They've never seen a market where so many professionals would just as soon short as go long.
EPFR Global, which tracks net investment flows by the world's biggest equity managers, says all of the major equity funds and ETFs posted net outflows for the week ending November 14. Equity funds in emerging markets had $5.58 billion pulled out, while $5.07 billion was pulled out of developed markets.
If investors were leaving their money in emerging markets, they tended to favor the larger economies. Net inflows to Brazil, Korea, China and Russia totaled $878 million. The BRIC funds took in an additional $480.6 million.
On the flip side, money market funds took in $10.1 billion. That brings the net inflows since the beginning of August past $100 billion.
yeah the fundamentals of the economy are deteriorating so rapidly and in such a profound fashion. and now they have to deal with watching their hedge fund comrades like Paulson whose short fund has trounced all the long funds this year and Goldman shorting the mortgage mkt.
this next wk should be very interesting esp. in the 24-48 hrs after the Fed cuts rates. i'll be ready with the dry powder.
EPFR Global, which tracks net investment flows by the world's biggest equity managers, says all of the major equity funds and ETFs posted net outflows for the week ending November 14. Equity funds in emerging markets had $5.58 billion pulled out, while $5.07 billion was pulled out of developed markets.
If investors were leaving their money in emerging markets, they tended to favor the larger economies. Net inflows to Brazil, Korea, China and Russia totaled $878 million. The BRIC funds took in an additional $480.6 million.
The CompUSA failure is no surprise. In recent weeks several week retailers have gone under: Bombay Co, Sofa Express, Levitz Furniture, Rent Way (closing 280 stores), now CompUSA. In a strong retail environment they were barely holding on; now you will start to see more and more of these. Next to go: Circuit City, followed by Kmart (I think the Sears brand will survive in some form, even if only as a shadow of its fromer self).
Alex Sink, Florida's chief financial officer, studies documents during a presentation at the Cabinet Meeting in the state Capitol in Tallahassee, Florida, on Dec. 4, 2007: capton on photo in Bloomberg story on State Fund.
Yeah. She's got a real "Sinking" feeling about all this, I bet.
The majority of people in the U.S., including james, just can't conceive of anything other than oil-driven, mall-destined prosperity.
James is waiting for the market to go down. In the meanwhile he is profiting from it. Got a complaint about that? Now what kind of prosperity do you want? Oil-free prosperity? Pray tell how will you arrange that for next year? Let me guess. You want everyone to stay home all the time and order everything, including groceries, via the internet?
I've been off a while shopping on-line. Not sure if you've seen this one from WSJ - FDIC Chief Bair Fears Hidden Agendas, Bets on Foreclosures Are Plan's Critics Also Investors? - WSJ.com
Yes, SIV's are dead. Finished. We're never gonna see them again. A failed product. We're all much wiser. ....So,...what name are they going to use for them next time?
sdtfs | 12.07.07 - 8:06 pm | #
"It is perfectly acceptable for funds to do this: The rules governing money-market mutual funds don't require funds to tell shareholders how much their investments are really worth."
Hey James -
You may not be going to Europe or Asia anytime soon, but those suckers are bidding up the prices you pay for everything that you need since they're relative purchasing power keeps increasing. So as long as you dont mind paying more for food, oil, anything with metal in it, outsourced services, etc. you'll be just fine. Thats why I get a chuckle when people say our exports are increasing and that will offset other issues - it means were shipping our friends oversees more food, scrap paper, scrap metal and other resources (I'm involved in the global transportation business) - none of which is good news for the US consumer or US manufacturer, or really helps truly "grow" our domestic economy.
A week US dollar is not a good thing for the economy - and it has never been considered to be - in order for people to rationalize the disaster in our currency and the situation we're in that mindset has changed. Remember, we're a global economy and while you may not be going to Europe or Asia anytime soon, the US companies that you invest in will be - and worse for them, their oversees competitors will be coming here and competing with them for resources and raw materials. Also, carve out the foreign currency gains for the Dow over the past 12 months and you'll be quite disappointed in what you see in the earnings trend. When the Euro weakens (which is coming soon given their issues) much of those paper currency gains will be given back as losses in the coming quarters. I'm sure the bulls will be more than willing to classify those losses as non-recurring then while they've somehow failed to recognize that fact over the past year.....
The dollar decline is a huge problem regardless of your personal vacation plans.
Hey Anon: thanks for the lecture. Most of my posts are ironic but you probably doh't do irony. Anyway most of my investments, recent, have been in foreign stocks that have risen more than the dollar has fallen. And what do you means the lower dollar is not good for the USA? A low RMB has been good for China. The US needs to export more to balance our trade and the lower dollar is about the only way to do that. If inflation goes up (and so far it has hardly moved up, albeit a wee bit) then the Fed can put on the brakes and we'll have the recession all you whiny bears are longing for. I don't mind either. And you have a very unsophisticated and jingoistic notion of the US economy. We're not alone in the world and capitalism is international, you know.
ABX up sharply over the past couple of weeks. Could Goldman have by chance seen this coming and covered their positions in a hurry, unloading their CDS on yet more unsuspecting bagholders?
I wonder wink how on earth Goldman's timing could have been so good? Could they have a partly bald crystal ball that sings in a stutter?
"We do not see asset values rising appreciably in the coming months, and we could see price erosion continue"
If this is the general sentiment, then the Paulson 'Hope' plan is already a failure. The purpose of that plan was to stabilize market expectations. If it does not do so, it is DOA.
"The dollar decline is a huge problem regardless of your personal vacation plans.
Anonymous | 12.08.07 - 8:24 am | # "
I am somewhat torn on a weaker dollar. A few years ago i started a part time business selling certain american sourced used items mainly to europe. About six months ago my business exploded. Exploded to the point i will make more working 20-25 hrs a week vs my very good 40 hr a week job. A weak dollar has been VERY good to me.
Heck my main job is with a multinational and we just had a announcement wed all hourly employees are getting a 11% raise. Works out to a little over 3.50 hr for me...Like i said,i am sorta torn on a weaker dollar...
Chris,
True. The lower dollar and disaster in leveraged trading carry the seeds of revival within them, just as a forest fire reseeds a new forest. It is painful, but it must happen. That's why I don't think the Fed is on the right path at the moment.
In a few years lot of US companies will have strong businesses in export trade.
"A few years ago i started a part time business selling certain american sourced used items mainly to europe."
Chris,
that may be the key. your company doesn't sound like it needs to buy expensive raw materials for manufacturing. in addition if ppl are dumping used items for cash that would also benefit you.
but in general our service based economy cannot be exported and many companies will be hit with higher raw material costs. what i think we're witnessing is the weakening of our economy from a weak dollar and the secondary side effects of certain businesses benefitting in the short run from that weak dollar. i don't think we can weaken our currency and expect it to lead to more prosperity.
I almost fell over wed when we were told of the raises. Our company is a HUGE user of petroleum based products. It is our single largest expense. The only thing i can think of is our overseas income is strong enough to compensate for a weak dollar. From an inside view we,as a company,are making some very good moves to weather this downturn.
I will say this though...This years christmas season is looking to be very weak.
TEHRAN (AFP) - Major crude producer Iran has completely stopped carrying out its oil transactions in dollars, Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said on Saturday, labelling the greenback an "unreliable" currency.
"At the moment, selling oil in dollars has been completely halted, in line with the policy of selling crude in non-dollar currencies," Nozari was quoted as saying by the ISNA news agency.
"The dollar is an unreliable currency, considering its devaluation and the oil exporters' losses," he added.
Interesting but as somewhat of a contrairan I wonder if that is what our leaders are actualy anticipating. When other type loans eventualy get inclused in this cluster.
Gaming the system is as American as apple pie. It would be a shame if only the Wall Street boys and Republican cronies could game the system. Let the games begi
I am a automotive junkyard scrounger. On my way home from work i pass 6 or so junkyards. I stop by a couple a days a week and see whats shown up. If you know what to look for you can make a mint selling online. I have been doing this off and on for damn near 20 years to make an extra buck.
The dawn of the interwebs really made it nice because i don't have to drag all my shit to automotive swap meets.
James -
I'll assume your recent post was serious rather than sarcastic - let me know if I'm wrong. My firm is heavily invested in China and its been a great place to be - that country lives on exports right now although that is changing - but they were even more reliant on exports in the 99-02 period when their currency was much higher than today - and it did little to deter it. The US and Japan are by far China's biggest export markets - their currencies have been as week or weaker than China yet China's exports continue to grow - if you look at their currency changes compared to their export partners on a weighted average basis over the past few years I think you'll find that their currency weakness relative to their export partners isn't that great at all.
Glad to hear you're making money in Europe - too bad you dont go there - its a lovely place as is China.
Dont think my views of the US economy are as simplistic as you think. I've spent a lot of time investing and operating companies in it on a global basis for the past 2 decades. The businesses I am involved in now are all seeing business slow in the US and many are complaining about raw material inflation due to foreign demand that they cant pass through in the US markets since they are slowing.
I have been a bull for 90% of the past 20+ years. I am not one now. Credit contracts then business slows. This credit contraction is severe and spreading. Based upon what I have seen as an operator and investor I see a recession right around the corner. Regardless of what I think, earnings are not going to be good in Q4 or 2008 - and capital budgets are getting cut. You may not like hearing it but thats whats happening in the trenches.
Good luck with your investments.
BTW, my Super Colander Tin Foil Hat is flashing red lights looking at the very choppy dollar action. If you have the time for it, one of your little chaos charts on dollar action would be interesting.
"But it seems to me that the process of a servicer dealing with a borrower should be much less time-consuming at this point than at origination, when servicers had to deal with providing competing (and therefore multiple) quotes."
The company that originates the loan and the company that services it are often not the same, especially with securitised loans. Also, part of the problems being addressed by the plan, according to the ASF, is that borrowers may not want to speak to the servicer if they're having difficulty - this allows them to freeze the rates without explicit borrower consent, provided they make an effort to contact the borrower.
"More Enhanced Cash Troubles: Columbia StratCash Halts Redemptions. Market rumors swirled Friday that the largest entrant in the "enhanced cash" space, Columbia's Strategic Cash had halted redemptions. Enhanced cash pools, or "3c-7" funds, are private placements available to only the largest qualified institutional investors. We've received no official word from Columbia yet, but multiple investors and sources tell Crane Data that redemptions have been frozen temporarily but may be made "in kind", and that the pool is beginning the process of winding down or liquidating. Over half of the pool, $21 billion, has been separated into a "StratCash 2" portfolio, perhaps signaling a very large "in kind" separation. Assets of the now 2 pools have not declined precipitously, contrary to some rumors. StratCash has been gradually declined from $40 billion to $33 billion over the past several weeks. Columbia parent Bank of America reportedly set aside $300 million to support the pool previously. As in Florida, we don't believe any investors have suffered losses to date, and the fund's NAVs have remained at $1.00 a share so far. StratCash becomes the latest enhanced cash product to retreat from the besieged sector. Federated returned investors' money in full from its small entrant last month, taking a $4.9 million loss, and GE Asset Management liquidated its GE Enhanced Cash at $0.96 cents on the dollar."
This pretty much sums up Columbia's position on the issues-
"Money market investing involves certain risks. An investment in the fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund."
The subprime scapegoat is looking more and more like a non issue and more and more like politics.....but why? What is the motivation beyond the obvious bank bail out mentality here? Is America about to have a run on banks or will corporations dive in valuation without Bush & Paulson getting involved with market efficiency? Whats going on?
The lady doth protest too much, methinks". - (Act III, Scene II)!
There does seem to be a liquidity problem, a foreclosure problem, a dollar valuation issue, banking problems, oil problems, inflation/stagflation concerns, but yet, we have the President saying the economy is doing a heck of a great job, and then he pops up with Paulson, as if reading a script to say the subprime thing is under control............huh?
The lady doth protest too much, methinks". - (Act III, Scene II)
My take on this is Machiavellianism versus Shakespearian, i.e, I think this drama is based on the fact that The Fed, with the full blessing of The Senate, Congress and all these fine people like Bair, Helicopter Ben, Paulson, etc...... were having trouble modifying/privatizing Social Security, so they gave America a 900 page Pension Reform Act, which now links your pension to muni junk bonds and bogus subprime collateral!
August 2006 - Landmark pension reform legislation passed last night by Congress and expected to be signed by the President this month includes the most significant changes to the fiduciary provisions of ERISA since its enactment in 1974. The new legislation (the "Pension Reform Act") significantly relaxes the rules governing when asset-backed securities ("ABS"), including commercial mortgage backed securities ("CMBS") and collateralized debt obligations("CDOs"), may be offered to investors holding certain types of retirement plan assets. Absent an exception, issuers of ABS, CMBS and CDOs that are not structured as debt must comply with ERISA, including its stringent fiduciary and prohibited transaction rules -- which is not practical for most ABS, CMBS and CDO issuers. One regulatory exception (known as the "Significant Participation Exception") relied on by many issuers of either below-investmentgrade ABS, CMBS and CDOs or ABS, CMBS or CDOs that are not characterized as debt for tax (each of which typically cannot be characterized asdebt for ERISA purposes) applies if an issuer does not have "significant participation" by "benefit plan investors".
Who helped educate our simple minded government employees:
President Bush Signs Pension Reform Act
The Asset Managers Division is pleased to report that President George Bush signed the Pension Reform Act which modernizes the Employee Retirement Security Income Act (ERISA). Of particular note, the new pension legislation includes a prohibited transaction exemption for cross-trading between separate pension accounts held with the same money manager and boosts the
President Bush Signs Pension Reform Act; Cross Trading Exemption Included
President Bush this week signed the Pension Reform Act (H.R. 4), comprehensive pension legislation that represents a significant overhaul of the prohibited transaction provisions of the 32-year old Employee Retirement Security Income Act. H.R.4 is Public Law No: 109-280. The changes include a prohibited transaction exemption for cross-trading between separate pension accounts held with the same money manager and boost the level of ERISA assets that can be invested in investment vehicles such as hedge funds. Under the legislation, cross-trading would be allowed for private pension plans with at least $100M in assets, resulting in lower transaction costs for pension plans.
29 C.F.R. sec. 2510.3-101(a) (2005). As a result, a person who exercises authority or control
respecting management or disposition of the assets of the entity or renders investment advice with respect
to the assets for a fee (direct or indirect) is a plan fiduciary.
Exemption for cross trading
Present Law
Present law provides statutory exemptions from the prohibited transaction rules for
certain transactions.136 Present law does not provide a statutory prohibited transaction exemption
for cross trades.
Explanation of Provision
The provision provides prohibited transaction exemptions under ERISA and the Code for
a transaction involving the purchase and sale of a security between a plan and any other account
managed by the same investment manager if certain requirements are met. These requirements
are-
the transaction is a purchase or sale, for no consideration other than cash payment
against prompt delivery of a security for which market quotations are readily
available;
the transaction is effected at the independent current market price of the security;
no brokerage commission fee (except for customary transfer fees, the fact of which is
disclosed) or other remuneration is paid in connection with the transaction;
a fiduciary (other than the investment manager engaging in the cross trades or any
affiliate) for each plan participating in the transaction authorizes in advance of any
cross-trades (in a document that is separate from any other written agreement of the
parties) the investment manager to engage in cross trades at the investment managers
discretion, after the fiduciary has received disclosure regarding the conditions under
which cross trades may take place (but only if the disclosure is separate from any
other agreement or disclosure involving the asset management relationship),
including the written policies and procedures of the investment manager;
each plan participating in the transaction has assets of at least $100,000,000, except
that, if the assets of a plan are invested in a master trust containing the assets of plans
maintained by employers in the same controlled group, the master trust has assets of
at least $100,000,000;
the investment manager provides to the plan fiduciary who has authorized cross
trading a quarterly report detailing all cross trades executed by the investment
manager in which the plan participated during such quarter, including the following
information as applicable: the identity of each security bought or sold, the number of
136 In addition, under ERISA section 408(a), the Secretary of Labor may grant exemptions with
respect to particular transactions or classes of transactions after consultation and coordination with the
Secretary of Treasury. An exemption may not be granted unless the Secretary of Labor finds that the
exemption is administratively feasible, in the interests of the plan and its participants and beneficiaries,
and protective of the r
Thomas Martin, president of the Homeowners Consumer Center, a Washington, D.C.-based consumer advocacy group, estimates that pension funds will take a $1 trillion hit from the devalued securities. 'This is going to be scary,' he said in an interview with Thomson Financial News. 'We think the Fed will have to step in and bail out at least the pension funds.'
The California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPers), the nation's largest public pension fund with more than $255 billion in assets, has a residential housing portfolio of about $2 billion. Spokesman Brad Pacheco said CalPers does not have any loss estimates yet. 'As far the subprime [issue] is concerned, we are watching this closely,' Pacheco wrote Thomson Financial in an e-mail.
Ratings agencies have many of these securities on watch-negative, and on Tuesday, Moody's downgraded more than 70 of Countrywide's Alt-A deals, which are deals rated just above subprime. Those are but a few of the hundreds of downgrades at the ratings firms on tens of billions of dollars' worth of bonds issued over the past several years. More will come as defaults rise on adjustable mortgages which will soon reset to unaffordable levels. And as defaults rise, investors are finding their CDOs have no collateral backing them.
Public pension fund's debt portfolios must, under federal guidelines, consist mostly of investment grade securities, meaning pension funds may be forced to realize the losses by selling any downgraded securities. Asked whether CalPers will have to sell any below-investment grade securities, Pacheco said, 'we do have options to deal with these, instead of selling.'
The lawsuits against money managers have been rolling in from angry investors and employees who have incurred losses because of lenders' risky involvement in the subprime market. Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) , Citigroup's (NYSE:C) 401(k) plan, State Street Corp. (NYSE:STT) , Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC) , and AIG (NYSE:AIG) are among those who have been sued.
In the suit against Citigroup, for instance, participants allege that the Citi plan breached fiduciary duties to employees by exposing them to the risky subprime market and by making off-balance sheet transactions.
And at least one pension fund, Teamsters Union Local 282, has filed a suit against Moody's for giving excessively high ratings to bonds backed by subprime mortgages.
Other large pension fund investments are being affected, even if they are not directly in the subprime market. Florida is reportedly planning to sell off about $2.2 billion in asset-backed commercial paper over the next several months. The securities have been downgraded because of concern over weakness stemming from the subprime meltdown.
The shock waves from the credit debacle are reaching overseas pension funds, such as Mexico's Afores. Like U.S. pension funds, Afores are also governed by strict asset allocation guidelines.
BLS - Wages up 1/2% M/M. Is that a worrisome inflation reading, from the real ecomony? Is that suggestive to Ben, to lower radically, FF by 50bpts?
Dunno, but I think there may be some on the reserve board that may object. I think a hold or even rate hike is in order, until the effects of the 75bpts cut over the past couple of months show up in economic readings. Tough to slow down inflation once the psychology in entrenched.
If you are a woman, I'd give you a big kiss. Because I'm lazy I have not done the data search you did, but I've been harping on the ERISA situation for quite a while. You've brought into focus the finger pointing I've been doing, as in:
This shoe is out, is pension fund exposure the next (or one of the next)?
States' Investment Strategy Scrutinized
Saturday December 8, 6:21 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Many State Officials Have Explaining to Do About Exotic Investments Made on Wall Street
NEW YORK (AP) -- State treasurers from Florida to Maine to Montana have found themselves in the awkward position this past week of having to explain why they parked taxpayer money in some of the most opaque investments on Wall Street.
More than a dozen state-run cash pools that manage money for local governments have some exposure to mortgage-related and other high-risk holdings that roiled credit markets this past summer, according to rating agency Standard & Poor's.
OMG- I forgot I was vested in the Western Confeence Teamster Pension. I wonder whether they're directly affected/infected? Wasn't counting on it, so it's more academic. What I liked was that it was "safe", reviewed by a judge because of all those LCN relationships. What is LCN you ask? I was puzzled too; until I saw La Cosa Nostra. I thought those names looked familiar.
The Bank of Japan came in for stinging criticism from Bernanke: he claims they made lame excuses for not adding liquidity in the 90's. If lowering rates didn't do the job, Bernanke argued, they should have bought debt directly. There was simply no excuse for failure to add liquidity.
Fast forward to today. 75bps of cuts and no liquidity added. Bernanke finds himself in exactly the same situation as the BOJ. If he's going to remain true to his convictions, then he has to cut deeper and faster, so he has time to resort to more extreme (buying mortgages outright) options.
Now fold in the rest of the FOMC. Mishkin is BB's alter ego, and Kohn seems somewhat convinced. But there's likely two votes on the board that don't see it Bernanke's way. If BB wants to stay true, he has to risk dissent. There is no other way, because there is NO EXCUSE for failure.
Man, all the stereotypes about the industry are true apparently.
I for one welcome the new leaders of our financial system:
The plot thickened when a flamboyant character named Bill Ash claimed Filomena Tobias confessed she lured her coked-up hubby to his death by coaxing him into the pool with the promise of sex with Tiger.
StratCash 2" portfolio, perhaps signaling a very large "in kind" separation. Assets of the now 2 pools have not declined precipitously, contrary to some rumors. StratCash has been gradually declined from $40 billion to $33 billion over the past several weeks. Columbia parent Bank of America reportedly set aside $300 million to support the pool previously.
Connect the dots.
StratCash = funding from Bank of America.
1st Marblehead = securitization via Bank of America (mainly).
James -... My firm is heavily invested in China and its been a great place to be - that country lives on exports right now although that is changing - but they were even more reliant on exports in the 99-02 period when their currency was much higher than today ... The US and Japan are by far China's biggest export markets - their currencies have been as week or weaker than China yet China's exports continue to grow...
Glad to hear you're making money in Europe - too bad you dont go there -
What on earth are you talking about "their currency higher than today"???. The yuan has been tied to the dollar since 1995 at 8.28/$; it was revalued to 8.11/$ in 2005 and now is in a managed float and trades at about 7.414/$. As for the yen since the yuan has been tied to the dollar until recently it fluctuated vs the yen as did the dollar.
I used to live in Europe, so I really don't need to "go there."
Why do you always spell weak as "week"? A week has seven days; weak is the opposite of strong.
The Bank of Japan came in for stinging criticism from Bernanke: he claims they made lame excuses for not adding liquidity in the 90's. If lowering rates didn't do the job, Bernanke argued, they should have bought debt directly. There was simply no excuse for failure to add liquidity.
Fast forward to today. 75bps of cuts and no liquidity added. Bernanke finds himself in exactly the same situation as the BOJ. If he's going to remain true to his convictions, then he has to cut deeper and faster, so he has time to resort to more extreme (buying mortgages outright) options.
I think Ben is simply naive.
He's apparently mystified by the BoJ's reluctance to, in effect, hand out wealth. This makes me think he's just an "Ivory Tower" academic with no "street smarts".
Talking about helicopter drops is all well and good, but the second he actually makes a concrete proposal to start taking the wealth of politicians, fund managers, businessmen, etc. and "dropping it out of helicopters", he might start to understand the BoJ's reluctance.
People who came to power by spending all their life's effort and resourcefulness to accumulate wealth may have something to say about it when some nerd academic comes to take it from them and hand it out to people who bought stuff they couldn't afford because they didn't spend all their life working and understanding the world the lived in.
Heck my main job is with a multinational and we just had a announcement wed all hourly employees are getting a 11% raise. Works out to a little over 3.50 hr for me...Like i said,i am sorta torn on a weaker dollar...
Chris
cobradriver
cobradriver,
There is no data set that is more mean-reverting over time than currencies. That's because currency imbalances tend to correct themselves, with a few exceptions, such as corrupt third-world countries.
Wise companies and people don't get dependent on their currency windfalls. So, try to bank a little of that extra cash while you can.
Despite all the hot air, currency gains aren't a positive for U.S. corporate earnings. They help some companies and hurt others, and when the trend reverses it will be vice versa. The problem is when investors start to believe currency gains are propping up earnings and the markets. They are bound to be disappointed. Currency changes are like the wind, fluctuating, sometimes powerful but ultimately not very consequential.
Assets of the now 2 pools have not declined precipitously, contrary to some rumors. StratCash has been gradually declined from $40 billion to $33 billion over the past several weeks.
I guess a about billion a week(?) isn't precipitously.
The exposure of pension funds to the mortgage meltdown is serious, and ultimately a lot of it will fall upon the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., which insures pensions. The PBGC is vastly underfunded to handle a serious pension crisis.
The PBGC can, should and probably will sue the ratings agencies to recover. But even if they obtain most of the ratings agencies' assets and drive them out of business, it may be a drop in the bucket.
"Why do you always spell weak as "week"? A week has seven days; weak is the opposite of strong."
Does he always? Or perhaps a typo. I suppose you're perfect but sometimes in the blogging realm, people miss type. Teh is common for the. If that's your bitch then you're a wanker.
"The PBGC is vastly underfunded to handle a serious pension crisis"
It's an epidemic of leverage and cheerful optimism, or lack of discipline that allowed the charade. It's a game that works until it stops, just like the mortgage calamity. That is what out fragile house-of-cards economy was built on. An ever increasing load of leverage built on an eroding capital base.
Doesn't take much for the whole mess to collapse. Equities are at the top of the tower and have a long drop ahead.
You're right. I think that's why BB will run into trouble with the Fed Bank Presidents like Poole, Fisher, Plosser. Even Bies, an uber-dove, is more practical then academic. None of these folks is scholar of the Great Depression, and some, especially Fisher, have said or implied that extreme measures (1% FF rate) led us to this current juncture. Sure they want to be seen as proactive, but that's why they went along with the last two cuts, and probably a gradualist approach of more (25bps a meeting). BB will have to deal with their dissent somehow.
"Why do you always spell weak as "week"? A week has seven days; weak is the opposite of strong."
Does he always? Or perhaps a typo. I suppose you're perfect but sometimes in the blogging realm, people miss type. Teh is common for the. If that's your bitch then you're a wanker.
Cheers,
Misean | 12.08.07 - 2:08 pm | #
It doesn't seem to be a typo since he keeps doing it. And he has no clue re the yuan over the past 12 years although he says he is involved in business in China. I....well...I am not impressed to be nice about it.
And in YOUR case..."miss type"??!!
Shouldn't you at least be politically correct and write "Ms. type"? LOL.
ac: "People who came to power by spending all their life's effort and resourcefulness to accumulate wealth may have something to say about it when some nerd academic comes to take it from them and hand it out to people who bought stuff they couldn't afford because they didn't spend all their life working and understanding the world the lived in.
actaully , those peopel are very happy that ben will drop dollar from the sky since he will do it in a way that they will be the only one to get the flying notes....
"Shouldn't you at least be politically correct and write "Ms. type"?"
Nope, Ms. is used for a marriage neutral women who doesn't want her marital status known. Further, miss was used as a verb, not a noun. From dictionary.com:
Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) - Cite This Source - Share This
miss1 /mɪs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[mis] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
verb (used with object)
1.\tto fail to hit or strike: to miss a target.
2.\tto fail to encounter, meet, catch, etc.: to miss a train.
3.\tto fail to take advantage of: to miss a chance.
4.\tto fail to be present at or for: to miss a day of school.
5.\tto notice the absence or loss of: When did you first miss your wallet?
6.\tto regret the absence or loss of: I miss you all dreadfully.
7.\tto escape or avoid: He just missed being caught.
8.\tto fail to perceive or understand: to miss the point of a remark.
verb (used without object)
9.\tto fail to hit something.
10.\tto fail of effect or success; be unsuccessful.
noun
11.\ta failure to hit something.
12.\ta failure of any kind.
13.\tan omission.
14.\ta misfire.
Verb phrases
15.\tmiss out, Chiefly British. to omit; leave out.
16.\tmiss out on, to fail to take advantage of, experience, etc.: You missed out on a great opportunity.
Idiom,
I'm sorry if you did not know the function of the word miss in my previous post. I'll try to be clearer in the future. However, I will NOT diagram sentences for you. That's your homework.
If you are a woman, I'd give you a big kiss. Because I'm lazy I have not done the data search you did, but I've been harping on the ERISA situation for quite a while. You've brought into focus the finger pointing I've been doing, as in:
Look over there...ERISA!
Brilliant....
Cheers,
Misean | 12.08.07 - 1:15 pm | #
Im not a women but thanks anyway.
This is the next shoe to drop and it will impact a lot of people that have no clue that they are buying worthless derivatives with pensions!
I'm sorry if you did not know the function of the word miss in my previous post. I'll try to be clearer in the future. However, I will NOT diagram sentences for you. That's your homework.
Cheers,
Misean | 12.08.07 - 2:58 pm | #
You protest too much to be believed. You meant to say "mistype" but screwed it up and now you give me umpteen lines of excuses for your error. You can miss a target but you can't miss type since you cannot use a verb to modify another verb. You might have missed a key on your keyboard but you didn't say that. You can't diagram your sentence since you don't know how.
James -
Sorry for the mispelling - I'm not a very good typist or speller for that matter. Thank you for making my point on the yuan (oops, almost typed "juan"). You were the one who originally said China has been been doing great with a "weak" currency. My point was that their currency hasn't been weak at all when compared to their major trade partners. Your most recent post further underscores that - which leads me to believe that your first post was an error and that now you agree with me that China's currency has actually been pretty strong when compared to its major trading partners. Also, dollar adjust the yuan since 1995 to see how its performed before you say it was so weak in 99-03 - compare it to the Euro.
Not sure any of it matters, but the "weak" dollar isn't helping matters for any business that is concentrated on the US. The "weak" dollar helping exports argument is somewhat misleading - our biggest exports are food and our junk - which we need to live and make our own metals and paper related products. That was my only point. You think a "weak" dollar is good for the US - I couldn't disagree more. If its so great, why doesnt everyone just shoot for a "weak" currency and why would China feel compelled to continue to strengthen theirs?
The weak dollar just helps the big US based multinationals artificially prop up earnings from foreign currency profits translating into higher dollar profits - irrespective of any nominal growth. That will go the other way in the not too distant future.
Pardon any typos or ms. spellings...
While looking at pension fund potential problems, remember that many discount rate asumptions currently do not reflect reality in the markets and will need to be adjusted in Q1.
People who came to power by spending all their life's effort and resourcefulness to accumulate wealth may have something to say about it when some nerd academic comes to take it from them and hand it out to people who bought stuff they couldn't afford because they didn't spend all their life working and understanding the world the lived in.
ac, a large fraction of the wealthy and powerful accumulated wealth through the finance industry, especially in the last decade. Since many of them are the first in line when the fed hands out money, I doubt it they'll complain much.
Bank Lawyer's Blog
Much Ado About Squat 12/7
It's all about Tanta's initial reaction to the New Hope Plan! "Is it possible to be in lust with a woman's mind? I think so. If Tanta's married, I sure hope she cheats."
Cessation Agreements
The Government proposes to allow a simpler alternative to an Approved Withdrawal Arrangement a Cessation Agreement. This will be an arrangement whereby the debt payable by a withdrawing employer is reduced but a guarantor gives the trustees a long-term guarantee. The key proposals are as follows:
The debt due from the withdrawing employer will be the Cessation Agreement Share. This will be the employers share of the total deficit on the Pensions Act 2004 funding basis (or, if the scheme has not yet moved onto the Pensions Act funding basis, the PPF valuation basis), the share being calculated by reference to liabilities attributable to the employer.
The amount to be guaranteed by the guarantor will be calculated much as under the existing Regulations as to Approved Withdrawal Arrangements, on either a fixed or a floating basis.
The Cessation Agreement will not need to be approved by the Regulator.
However, the trustees will be able to enter into the Agreement only if they are satisfied that the remaining employers' ability and willingness to fund the scheme is not adversely affected, and that the guarantor's assets are such that the guarantor is "likely to pay" the guaranteed amount.
More rumbling over at the Big Picture about mortgage securitizers needing to show documentation that they actually own the mortgages they say they own.
I nominate the following video for an upcoming Video of the Day.
The people at VERSUS have updated their Malay Ride holiday song.
If you haven't heard it, it is worth a listen! The upbeat song (with its dire lyrics) is sure to appeal to even the most deeply sarcastic amongst us. I can't stop listening to it, lol. sigh
(Thanks for the words of encouragement to all those who appreciate the charts I make.)
As James and anyone else who turned 18 since 2002 knows, the stock market goes up forever, you just have to believe. Where is James? I miss his childish and petulant banter... tugging at the forelock and all that.
China's currency has actually been pretty strong when compared to its major trading partners.."!!!!
You mean like the Euro? Or the Pound? Geez, why don't you read Brad Setser's blog and learn something? Almost every trading partner of China complains about how weak the RMB is. Can't you follow the news?
Of course the weak dollar helps US exports. As the dollar has dropped our exports have risen. Almost all our major exporters like a weak dollar. You simply don't know what you are talking about. Sad.
The ONLY way the US can reverse the balance of payments deficit (and it will HAVE to be reversed eventually) is to export more and that can happen ONLY if the dollar drops drastically in value or other currencies RISE against it, which is in essence the same thing. This will be painful since it means the US will have to EARN its way instead of just issuing worthless pieces of paper to the world; it will have to cut consumption and work to produce things for others to buy. You may know something about real estate. You know very little about international trade.
I think you're out of luck. She's got way too much confidence and integrity to "cheat". Even if there were some arrangement I'm sure it's carefully spelled out with exceptions noted in the footnotes or addenda, with places for initials on pages 3 through 8.
And I'm sure it's possible to fall in love with a woman's mind,...more than that, this deponent saith not.
Is it ok if I connect wal-mart to muni bonds and infrastructure build out during the housing bubble/liquidity implosion?
Follow the money kids!
Brad Howard requested that the Council issue a letter of support of his efforts to locate a big box retail store or distribution center in Holbrook. Mr. Heward stated that he has had contact with Wal-Mart and a letter of support would be icing on the cake. Mr. Heward also stated that the Wal-Mart in Taylor is not a done deal due to the site which has been chosen was once a landfill and there appears to be settling issues. Councilmember Carlisle made a motion to issue a letter of support of Mr. Hewards effort to bring business to Holbrook. Councilmember Cobb seconded and the motion carried unanimously.
just in time-
- Bloomberg.com
Florida Towns, Schools Pull $560.7 Million From Fund (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Reading this opened my eyes pretty wide.
Bottom line is that Tsunami has not even arrived yet.
Straight Talk on the Mortgage Mess from an Insider - Herb Greenberg - MarketWatch
It's always good to dump on Friday afternoon. Keeps the sheeple out of the loop. That ought to give us a 200 point rally on Monday.
Yay! SIeVe's failing! Big cuts coming! Woohoo!
Cheers,
It definately is time for the "no shit, sherlock" moment in America. Land of the brave, home of the free.
The moneyed interests' have been sucking our wealth dry with crap. There are no rocket scientists on wall street, get it. All of their models are shit, just like the " CAPM, the Nobel prize winning Black-Scholes derivative models, Eugene Fama, and all the rest of them. " Finance is an adaptive system which means that as soon as we all believe one thing, an exception appears (GS).
The markets are not normally distributed. It is a mathematical illusion. Black Swan, fat tails etc are crap. The markets are not any nightengale efficient, there are no "primitive securities" in the short run. These are only post facto artifacts.
The financial markets are so manipulated that the century we are revisting is the 20th, as in 1920's. Let us hope that we revist the era of labor (consumer) and government savvy of the 50's and 60's when it's over.
Have a good weekend. By the way, I predict the markets ......
zinc,
"government savvy"
You're kidding right? That's an oxymoron. Yeah boy those 50's and 60's, before Europe and Japan pulled there arses out of the bombed out rubble WWII left behind sure was an era of Gov't savy. Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions (yeah it was cool, but really, did nothing), Vietnam and Korean wars, Mosadegh and the Shah...
Ah, to return the era of Gov't savy...
Cheers,
absolutely do not forget that European banker from Germany who said that the SIV is DEAD and will never recover.
zzzzzz zinc Zinc ZINC COME BACK!
Yes, SIV's are dead. Finished. We're never gonna see them again. A failed product. We're all much wiser. ....So,...what name are they going to use for them next time?
Now that Fla. has supposedly come clean, when does the pension confessional officially open???
Oh, the finger pointing will be freakin deafening.
and while the good citizens of Florida suffer penalties of 2% and probably more on their life savings, Wall St is in full celebration mode of its snapback rally. just wait til after the holidays u chumps...
sdtfs,
Easy:
Heuristic Investment Vehicles.
That ought to do it.
Cheers,
Hey the market is up today. Stop all the bellyaching. Stop, I say, this instant!
And to think I thought Misean had living brain cells ? Who knew
credit line gone-
Expired
zinc,
Good rebuttal zinc. Right up there with neeneer neeneer neeneer.
Cheers,
James,
if you're the one who went long this rally, i was the one shorting into you.
i wouldn't sleep too well this weekend b/c even if you do get a bump up from a rate cut, it will be short lived if at all since its already been priced in. and if its only a 0.25% cut; uh oh.
Misean,
The space program was the best investment America made in the latter half of the 20th century, The ROI is inestimable. Everything from computers to polymers. And in those days, NASA was the Civilian Aerospace agency of the US. We shared most, if not all, of the technology we developed with the world.
The American effort to get to the moon was initiated by JFK, who set what, at the time, was the somewhat absurd goal of successfully landing a man on the moon and returning him successfully to earth within a decade (we had yet to send a man into space). We met that goal. Much of the technology we use today would not exist without the space program.
If I could pick one thing I'd like a political leader to do, it would be to set a similar goal for global energy self-sufficiency. Now, there's an investment in the future. Alas, cream no longer rises to the top.
James,
But sir, the DOW was up but a paltry 0.04%, whilst the dollar fell 0.11%. Isn't that actually a loss?
Don't hitme! Don't hit me!
Cheers,
Marcus,
"The ROI is inestimable"
Yeah in the negative direction. If I feel like pulling up the research on this tonight I will. But it the cost of the program was well in excess of any return. Computers already existed, and business was paying for improvements. Polymers also existed.
"Much of the technology we use today would not exist without the space program."
Well I'd like some proof of that assertion.
In fact, because of Kennedy's mandate, NASA went for off the shelf tech, because they didn't have time to wait for the really interesting stuff to come on line. Research the ion engine a bit. Because of the Apollo program we are still using WWII technology to get into space.
This really isn't the place to debate this, so let's leave it at that. If you know of a way to privately discuss this via email or something, I would be happy to do so tomorrow.
Cheers,
Okay Misean: Normally I don't service ... but I think anj unexamined life is not worth living here we go .....
"Yeah boy those 50's and 60's, before Europe and Japan pulled there arses out of the bombed out rubble WWII left behind sure was an era of Gov't savy. Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions (yeah it was cool, but really, did nothing), Vietnam and Korean wars, Mosadegh and the Shah.."
Korea and Vietnam ... the US Military is not designed to conquor and destroy, like a Roman Legion. Hopefully never will be. We should have learned.
Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions... and ? Knowledge is unrelenting.. your problem.
Mosadegh muslim africa stuff. By the way, where is Europe in stopping the genocide. You mention something about them. They passed on Iraq (smart) why aren't they in Mosadegh (sp?)
That all
S&P? HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!
Come on kids, let's sign the S&P song:
S&P loves the investment banksters,
All the little banksters of the world.
Red and yellow, black and white,
They are precious in his sight.
S&P loves the little banksters of the world.
Everything is AAA in its own way.
Like the HELOC, 80/20 on a snow-covered winter's day.
And loan is beautiful, in their own way.
Under Paulson's heaven, the world's gonna find the way.
There is none so blind as he who will not see.
We must not close our minds; we must let our thoughts be free.
For every hour that passes by, we know the world gets a little bit older.
It's time to realize that beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder.
And everything is AAA in its own way.
Like the $800k condo, or a snow-covered winter's day.
Oh, sing it children!
Everybody's AAA, in their own way.
Under God's heaven, the world's gonna find the way.
We shouldn't care about the pay stubs, or the number of his flips.
Don't worry about what shows from without, but the love that lives within.
And we're gonna get it all together now; everything gonna work out fine.
Just take a little time to look on the good side my friend,
And straighten it out in your mind.
And everything is AAA in its own way.
Like the starry summer night, or a snow-covered winter's day.
Ah, sing it children!
Everybody's AAA in their own way,
Under Paulson's heaven the world's gonna find a way.
One more time!
Everything is AAA in its own way.
Like corporate bridge loan, or a snow-covered winter's day..
If I had time, it'd be interesting. I still think I'm right ; )
zinc,
"Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions... and ? Knowledge is unrelenting.. your problem."
I dunno, I guess stealing money at gun point from the citizenry to develop technology to blow up the world is good in your view. I find it reprehensible.
"the US Military is not designed to conquor and destroy, like a Roman Legion."
Tell that to the Afghan's and Iraqi's.
"Mosadegh muslim africa stuff."
???????????????? psst..come here...Mosadegh was elected prime minister of Iran in the 50's...
"where is Europe in stopping the genocide."
???? :/
I'll stop now.
Cheers,
Now that Fla. has supposedly come clean, when does the pension confessional officially open???
Coming clean and not having a problem remaining are two different things.
The run on the LGIP is unlikely to happen on the FRS (Florida Retirement System) funds. The employees/retirees are not demand depositors like the LGIP participants are. That was a major error in the pool design. FRS supposedly has some problem investments as well. Whether they are bad enough to 'break the buck' remains to be seen.
Marcus,
I'm not saying you have an unreasonable opinion. That's why it would be a good debate.
Cheers,
edgar,
Gotta post the tune name....It's on the tip of my tongue...but I can't access it.
By the way...NICE.
Cheers,
Mohammed Mosaddeq - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Mohammad Mosaddeq (Mossadeq (help·info)) (Persian: محمد مصدق Moḥammad Moṣaddeq, also Mosaddegh or Mossadegh) (19 May 1882 5 March 1967) served as the Prime Minister of Iran[1][2] from 1951 to 1953. He was democratically elected to the parliament, and as leader of the nationalists was twice appointed prime minister by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, after a positive vote of inclination by the parliament.[3] Mossadegh was a nationalist and passionately opposed foreign intervention in Iran. He was also the architect of the nationalization of the Iranian oil industry, which had been under British control through the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), today known as British Petroleum (BP).
He was eventually removed from power on August 19, 1953, by military intervention. The coup d'état was supported and funded by the British and U.S. governments and was led by General Fazlollah Zahedi [4]. The Mohammed Mosaddeq - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
American operation to encourage it was run by CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt, Jr.,[5][6] the grandson of U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt, and came to be known as Operation Ajax,[5] after its CIA cryptonym, and as the "28 Mordad 1332" coup, after its date on the Iranian calendar.[7] Dr. Mosaddeq was imprisoned for three years and subsequently put under house arrest until his death. He is, in many countries, considered a symbol of anti-imperialism
sbarrkum,
Yes, elected to parliament appointed prime minister. Gimme a break, it's Friday, and I'm on my second martini.
Cheers,
Hydrogen bombs, ICBM's, Moon missions... and ? Knowledge is unrelenting.. your problem."
I dunno, I guess stealing money at gun point from the citizenry to develop technology to blow up the world is good in your view. I find it reprehensible.
your problem
"the US Military is not designed to conquor and destroy, like a Roman Legion."
Tell that to the Afghan's and Iraqi's
Good, you get what I'm saying
"Mosadegh muslim africa stuff."
???????????????? psst..come here...Mosadegh was elected prime minister of Iran in the 50's...
couldn't care less
Misean,
Vaguely remembered. Used Google.
at home today, think its a bug.
On my 3rd beer, more accurately Fosters.
Just makes life so much pleasenter.
regards
barr
The American Securitization Forum wrote the rate freeze presented to the public by the President and the Treasury Secretary.
It can be found it at americansecuritization.com
The framework allows servicers to modify loans without borrower signatures
Source: American Securitization Forum, Streamlined Foreclosure and Loss Avoidance Framework for Securitized Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans, Executive Summary, December 6, 2007, page 13, third paragraph from bottom of page
According to the American Securitization Forum's Framework for the rate freeze, borrowers will not have to document current income to be eligible for refinancing, even if they received initial loans with embellished incomes
Source: American Securitization Forum, Streamlined Foreclosure and Loss Avoidance Framework for Securitized Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans, Executive Summary, December 6, 2007, page 3, FICO test
Counseling and modification expenses are to be charged to securitized trust cash flows, so service providers, like Countrywide, which has a representative on the board of the American Securitization Forum, will profit from the process.
Source: American Securitization Forum, Streamlined Foreclosure and Loss Avoidance Framework for Securitized Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans, Executive Summary, December 6, 2007, page 7, first full paragraph
Appraised value for modifications are based on the date of origination, even if the current value is much less.
Source: American Securitization Forum, Streamlined Foreclosure and Loss Avoidance Framework for Securitized Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans, Executive Summary, December 6, 2007, page 2, second bullet
Some of the firms that may profit from the rate freeze are members of the industry group that authored the plan.
Guys! Maria has just commented in the previous thread. Enjoy.
Here you go Misean
The markets are not any nightengale efficient, there are no "primitive securities" in the short run.
In the old days, those "primitive"
securities were known as "assets," and the "derivative" securities were called "bucket shops."
But of course, they were backwards then. They hadn't figured out the right mathmatical formulas for losing $500 billion in the mortgage market.
Back to the Mortgage Plan - Add to the things that I don't understand...
THE PLAN's purpose is to streamline the process because the servicers don't have the qualified staff to do it piecemeal (i.e. "right").
But it seems to me that the process of a servicer dealing with a borrower should be much less time-consuming at this point than at origination, when servicers had to deal with providing competing (and therefore multiple) quotes.
Also, the resets should occur at about the same rate as the loans were written; so the load on the servicers don't necessarily need to be crammed into a short time period.
One possible reason that the effort might be heavily front-loaded is the fact that up to now most FC's have occurred before rate resets--borrower can't even handle the initial rate. If that's the case, keeping these folks on the hook is no favor.
CompUSa to close all of its 103 stores
Business, financial, personal finance news - CNNMoney.com
if you're the one who went long this rally, i was the one shorting into you.
i'm shorting into you, too.
suckers.
America suffers from a combination of denial (like a drug addict) and privilege syndrome (like a suburban teenager). The majority of people in the U.S., including james, just can't conceive of anything other than oil-driven, mall-destined prosperity.
they are in for a shock.
edgar,
Thanks...
And for those not familiar...here's that 70's tune:
YouTube -
For those who don't know it.
Cheers,
rich
i think its important to understand why the mkts rallied the last 2 wks. IMO it was do or die for the hedge funds after the Primary Dow Theory Bear Mkt Sell Signal triggered on 11/26.
we were headed for a crash and they needed a coordinated effort to reverse the trend before the month/year end closeout of the books. on 11/27 i remember hearing a CNBC interview of a hedge fund manager who said he was fundamentally bearish but was buying stocks. Mark Haines asked for clarification and the manager paused and explained in a halting voice that he headed up 2 hedge funds and they needed to finish up at year end. so they were buying and hard despite their beliefs.
these types of insights are priceless. in Sun Tzu's The Art of War understanding what your opponents is thinking is critical to triumphing over him.
FFDIC,
Yeah, this is hardly a surprise. They killed a bunch of stores this summer. Their business model was poor. Smaller parts retailers did better with IT pro's and box stores like Best Buy started thing like remote repair services.
A tech bubble remnant that lost its way.
Cheers,
sbarrkum,
It's Austrailian for beer mate.
Cheers,
FFDIC
wow, CompUSA? geez, i buy all my hardware there.
so with Circuit City, Best Buy, and now CompUSA suffering, the NDX rolls on?
with the QQQQ and the SPX at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement levels from their previous highs, will they be able to push thru these resistance barriers?
Easier access to capital for small public firms is on the way after the Securities and Exchange Commission lifted heavy regulations that had spooked investors.
On Nov. 15, the SEC voted unanimously to adopt changes to Rule 144 which governs the holding and selling of restricted company securities.
Smaller public companies often offer restricted securities stocks or bonds not registered with the SEC or publicly traded to private investors as a way of raising cash quickly. The company sells the securities at a discount, and investors then sell them at market value.
As the law stands, investors must hold the securities for a year before they can sell them, and when they do sell, they are limited to selling 1 percent of the companys outstanding securities per quarter.
The revisions to the rule which will go into effect 60 days after a final draft is published in the Federal Register reduce the holding period to six months and lift all limitations on sales volume.
This removes a great deal of risk from an investor standpoint because the securities can be sold before prices drop.
The longer you hold a security, the greater the risk that it will decrease in value, said Irvin Brum, chair of the corporate and securities department at Ruskin Moscou Faltischek in Uniondale.
Looser investing standards will boost public investments that are particularly important to Long Islands small-business driven economy, Brum added.
Investors are subject to Rule 144 when they either invest in a public companys restricted securities, or a private company in which they hold securities goes public.
Private investments in public equity or PIPE investments are becoming an increasingly popular source of financing for small companies. Investors are expected to pump $45 billion into the public equity markets in 2007, according to PlacementTracker, which researches PIPE and other private investments.
This has been a booming market in the last five years, Burm said.
Back in 2000, PIPE investments reached $24.4 billion.
The changes to Rule 144 will also eliminate pricey, time-consuming registration requirements on small firms.
In the past, when investors bought securities and didnt want to hold them for the whole year, they would require the company to register the securities with the SEC. Once the securities were registered, they could be freely traded on the public markets, thus giving the investors access to the shares eight months sooner.
Ira Halperin, co-chair of the corporate and securities department at Meltzer, Lippe, Goldstein, & Breitstone, said such registration could cost over $50,000 and take up to four months.
Burm said some of these changes are being implemented to combat growing Sarbanes-Oxley costs. Financial reporting tied to Sarbanes can be a huge fiscal burden on small companies that dont have the internal structure to comply.
In recent years, the general trend has been against going public,
How much is in these SIV's
Anonymous | 12.07.07 - 10:25 pm,
Ah...can't get the big boys to piss away money. Let's get the smaller players back in the game. Meat's back on the menu boys:
YouTube - LOTR Extended Edition - Merry-Pippin escape
Cheers,
Some of the firms that may profit from the rate freeze are members of the industry group that authored the plan.
harlynman
Now why doesn't that surprise me? This is like the S&L debacle all over again. The same S&L owners that lost their bank to the FDIC later bought the assets backing the bad loans at firesale prices. The system is broken. Capitalism run amok.
Tim,
A lot. Billions and billions. The ones in the article are small fries. That's the way the downgrades are going now. Hit the small fry's and hope the mrket doesn't notice the elephant in the living room.
Cheers,
SIV fuel running lower!!!
Dec. 7, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) --
NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of credit card lenders mostly fell Friday on continuing concerns about the decay of credit quality.
Stifel Nicolaus analyst Chris Brendler downgraded American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) to 'Hold' from 'Buy,' forecasting more losses from unpaid credit card bills next year. The reeling housing and mortgage markets will put 'significant' pressure on consumer credit, he said.
Kenneth A. Posner, an analyst with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) , downgraded Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE:COF) based on expectations for higher unemployment. He thinks losses on credit card debt could reach 6.5 percent, while investors probably do not expect losses of more than 5.5 percent, he said.
'All eyes are focused on credit, but the market may not yet have discounted what we see as the full extent of the looming cycle,' he said.
Credit crunch!!
Stifel Nicolaus analysts today, who believe the global credit bubble is only beginning to unwind, and that the pressures will continue to be felt throughout 2008..."'Simply put, risk was underpriced, leverage was too high, and structures were too aggressive,'" write Chris Brendler and Michael Widner of Stifel. 'As this unravels, it is putting enormous pressure on balance sheets and valuations, causing lending institutions (including hedge funds and private equity) to pull back at a time when borrowers (both consumer and corporate) need it most.'"
Stifel Nicolaus downgrades American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) from Buy to Hold.
The firm also lowered its FY08 EPS estimate on American Express from $4.05 to $3.55. Stifel Nicolaus said it expects the issues in the housing/mortgage markets and the related credit crunch to have major economic effects on consumer confidence. Increasing delinquencies in the credit card sector in 2008 should lead to higher credit losses for American Express, according to Stifel Nicolaus.
James
so what do you think of the analysts that downgraded COF and AXP?
Stifel Nicolaus analysts today, who believe the global credit bubble is only beginning to unwind, and that the pressures will continue to be felt throughout 2008..."'Simply put, risk was underpriced, leverage was too high, and structures were too aggressive,'" write Chris Brendler and Michael Widner of Stifel. 'As this unravels, it is putting enormous pressure on balance sheets and valuations, causing lending institutions (including hedge funds and private equity) to pull back at a time when borrowers (both consumer and corporate) need it most.'"
Anonymous | 12.07.07 - 10:54 pm,
Yep...I call it deflation. Nothing left to lever against.
IMHO.
Cheers,
Thanks for the link to the ACA filing, r-c-. That looks like an ugly event to my untrained eye.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Defaults on junk bonds are expected to skyrocket in the coming year as economic growth slows, the investment rating service Moody's said Thursday.
The rate at which speculative-rated companies will default on their debt - commonly referred to as junk bonds - is projected to jump to 4.2 percent, more than four times as high as the present 1 percent rate, according to Moody's default analyst Kenneth Emery.
Emery's projection is based on the assumption that economic growth in the United States will slow considerably in the coming year, but that there won't be a recession.
If the nation were to see a full recession, "default rates could increase to near double-digit (percentage) levels," he said in a press release.
The current global default rate is at a nearly 26-year low, a result of several years of easy credit conditions. It is down from 1.9 percent a year ago.
Lenders only began tightening their terms in July amid the first signs of the subprime mortgage-inspired credit crunch.
"Current rates reflect the easy credit conditions of the past couple of years ... and strong economic growth which has allowed issuers to make their debt service payments," said Emery in the release.
The percentage of borrowers whose debt is trading at junk levels reached 10 percent in November, its highest level in almost five years, and up from 7 percent last month.
As of the end of June, there were about $45.5-trillion (U.S.) worth of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding. That's a 72-fold increase in just six years.
CDS are, as I've mentioned in previous columns, essentially, insurance against the possibility of a bond defaulting on its payments. Everybody and his dog has been busily writing CDS protection for years now, and it has been pretty much of a no-brainer way to make buckets of money - kind of like selling flood insurance during a drought - since, like, it's different this time, dudes, nobody ever defaults any more.
The thing is, lately the credit-fallout rain just won't let up and, as Led Zeppelin so succinctly put it, "If it keeps on raining, levee's goin' to break."
So, default rates at historic lows, no worries then, eh? Well, not exactly. Default rates are a lagging indicator. By the time defaults begin to rise noticeably, it's already too late. A better predictor of future problems is Standard & Poor's distressed ratio. S&P defines "stressed" debt as bonds that trade at an option-adjusted spread of 600 to 800 basis points over government bonds (the "risk-free" alternative), and "distressed" debt as bonds that trade at 1,000 basis points or more over government bond yields. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) A distressed 10-year bond, then, would yield roughly 14 per cent. Yow! That's a whole lot of beeps.
In their most recent Distressed Credit Report, S&P points out that in November, the distressed ratio - the number of distressed credits divided by the number of speculative-grade issuers - rose to 4.9 per cent from 2.3 per cent in October. That's the biggest increase in five years.
The number of companies with debt issues trading at distressed prices rose from 120 in October to 224 in November. Mind you, the total amount of distressed debt was a mere $36.2-billion on Nov. 15, which is a drop in the bucket compared with the ocean of CDS insurance outstanding, but still up more than four times from the $8.6-billion total reported in October. Include the 600- and 800-basis-point thresholds - the merely stressed debt, the stuff that's not quite under water yet - and the total amount of affected debt is $165.3-billion. Okay, call it several drops in the bucket.
Even speculative-grade credits (junk bonds, basically) that weren't stressed or distressed saw their average spreads widen from 392 basis points over Treasuries on Oct. 13 to 502 beeps over on Nov. 15. They may not be stressed yet, but at that rate of spread widening, they aren't that far off.
Okay, so here's the scary part. Over the past 25 years, an average of 10.1 per cent of all global entities rated B-minus and 26.3 per cent of all the entities rated triple-C-plus or lower, defaulted within one year. During 2007, 48 per cent of all new junk bond issues were rated B-minus or lower. It won't take some 20-sigma, Black Swan, fat-tail, highly improbable exogenous event to cause
Anonymous | 12.07.07 - 11:43 pm,
"Okay, so here's the scary part. Over the past 25 years, an average of 10.1 per cent of all global entities rated B-minus and 26.3 per cent of all the entities rated triple-C-plus or lower, defaulted within one year. During 2007, 48 per cent of all new junk bond issues were rated B-minus or lower. It won't take some 20-sigma, Black Swan, fat-tail, highly improbable exogenous event to cause"
Right, so figure out a way to defend a stagflation/inflation scenario. You've already pointed to a serious deflation...so the above are extra credit.
Cheers,
Subprime scapegoat is toast, the market is back on track with a 72 hour case of subprime flu, versus global panic; DOW 15000 within 2 weeks!!
Yields on 10- year notes fell last month the most in more than five years on concern that subprime mortgage losses will deepen.
``The market is coming to the realization that the worst is behind us and bond yields are supposed to be higher,'' said Joseph Balestrino, a senior portfolio manager in Pittsburgh at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $21 billion.
Ten-year note yields rose 9 basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 4.11 percent at 4:56 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 1/4 percent coupon due in November 2017 fell 23/32, or $7.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 5/32.
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade indicated a 24 percent chance that policy makers will lower the 4.5 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by a half- percentage point at their meeting Dec. 11, compared with a 36 percent likelihood yesterday. The odds of a quarter-point cut were 76 percent.
The market's priced to an extreme outcome,'' said Peter Kretzmer, senior economist in New York at Bank of America Corp.You have this dichotomy that seems to be going on between financial market behavior and the economy.''
After falling below 4 percent last week for the first time since 2005, 10-year yields will rise to 4.325 percent by year- end, according to the median forecast of the 21 primary dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve. The increase would mean a capital loss of 2.21 percent, Bloomberg data show. Ten- year notes returned 12 percent since yields rose as high as 5.3 percent in June, Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes show.
The Fed said Nov. 20 that it expects the economy to expand 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent in 2008. The median estimate in the Bloomberg survey is for 2.1 percent growth this year and 2.4 percent in 2008.
What concerns bond investors is that the slowing economy may lead the central bank to lower interest rates even though the dollar's 12 percent decline on a trade-weighted basis this year and the 61 percent increase in crude oil prices are causing inflation to accelerate. The consumer price index increased 3.5 percent in October from a year earlier, the fastest pace since August 2006, the government said Nov. 15.
Stagflation Danger
The last time the economy suffered through slowing growth and rising inflation, or stagflation, was in the 1970s. The 10- year note's yield rose to 10.3 percent by 1980 from 5.89 percent at the end of 1971.
I think we have some version'' of stagflation now, said Paul McCulley, a money manager at Newport Beach, California- based Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world's biggest bond fund.We're importing a degree of inflation with the weaker dollar and oil prices, which the Fed can't do anything about. The economy is weaker.''
Any evidence of growth will be enough to end the Treasury rally, said Joseph Balestrino, a senior portfolio manager in Pittsburgh at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $21 billion in bonds.
The government is forecast to say this week that the economy accelerated at a 4.9 percent annual pace last quarter, faster than its initial estimate of 3.9 percent on Oct. 31, according to the median estimate of 60 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Historically speaking, most of the yield decline has already occurred,'' Balestrino said.It's hard to be wildly bullish at this point unless you're calling for a recession. Yields will have to back higher.'
I knew CompUSA was toast last year.
They were a private equity leveraged buy out that totally flopped. They had a great location in White Plains, a pretty affluent NYC suburb, where everybody used to go to buy PCs and laptops. But they shut it down in a sleezy way. Every week, you would drive by there and see "CLEARANCE" signs, only when you went inside they had like maybe three things on clearance. This went on for weeks, like a retail version of the Terminator, dying piece by piece. I knew retail was in trouble when CompUSA coundn't make it in White Plains. I'm telling you, Circuit City is next.
idoc,
you are probably right about why the market rallied. as long as hedge funds can scrape together two nickels worth of leverage, they can engineer a brief rally. But the momentum is dying. The next chapter, they will scrape their nickels together to go short. I really feel sorry for the amateur longs right now. They've never seen a market where so many professionals would just as soon short as go long.
Night all,
38 of ya...
Maybe some rock blogging tomorrow....
Cheers,
I will buy the S&P 500 for 30 cents on the dollar. Today only.
EPFR Global, which tracks net investment flows by the world's biggest equity managers, says all of the major equity funds and ETFs posted net outflows for the week ending November 14. Equity funds in emerging markets had $5.58 billion pulled out, while $5.07 billion was pulled out of developed markets.
If investors were leaving their money in emerging markets, they tended to favor the larger economies. Net inflows to Brazil, Korea, China and Russia totaled $878 million. The BRIC funds took in an additional $480.6 million.
On the flip side, money market funds took in $10.1 billion. That brings the net inflows since the beginning of August past $100 billion.
Rich,
yeah the fundamentals of the economy are deteriorating so rapidly and in such a profound fashion. and now they have to deal with watching their hedge fund comrades like Paulson whose short fund has trounced all the long funds this year and Goldman shorting the mortgage mkt.
this next wk should be very interesting esp. in the 24-48 hrs after the Fed cuts rates. i'll be ready with the dry powder.
VMMXX
EPFR Global, which tracks net investment flows by the world's biggest equity managers, says all of the major equity funds and ETFs posted net outflows for the week ending November 14. Equity funds in emerging markets had $5.58 billion pulled out, while $5.07 billion was pulled out of developed markets.
If investors were leaving their money in emerging markets, they tended to favor the larger economies. Net inflows to Brazil, Korea, China and Russia totaled $878 million. The BRIC funds took in an additional $480.6 million.
The CompUSA failure is no surprise. In recent weeks several week retailers have gone under: Bombay Co, Sofa Express, Levitz Furniture, Rent Way (closing 280 stores), now CompUSA. In a strong retail environment they were barely holding on; now you will start to see more and more of these. Next to go: Circuit City, followed by Kmart (I think the Sears brand will survive in some form, even if only as a shadow of its fromer self).
Alex Sink, Florida's chief financial officer, studies documents during a presentation at the Cabinet Meeting in the state Capitol in Tallahassee, Florida, on Dec. 4, 2007: capton on photo in Bloomberg story on State Fund.
Yeah. She's got a real "Sinking" feeling about all this, I bet.
James,
But sir, the DOW was up but a paltry 0.04%, whilst the dollar fell 0.11%. Isn't that actually a loss?
Don't hitme! Don't hit me!
Sheesh. You think I'm going to Europe any time soon?!!?
The majority of people in the U.S., including james, just can't conceive of anything other than oil-driven, mall-destined prosperity.
James is waiting for the market to go down. In the meanwhile he is profiting from it. Got a complaint about that? Now what kind of prosperity do you want? Oil-free prosperity? Pray tell how will you arrange that for next year? Let me guess. You want everyone to stay home all the time and order everything, including groceries, via the internet?
I've been off a while shopping on-line. Not sure if you've seen this one from WSJ - FDIC Chief Bair Fears Hidden Agendas, Bets on Foreclosures
Are Plan's Critics Also Investors? - WSJ.com
FDIC bank report shows more slowing in Florida
FDIC bank report shows more slowing in Florida - South Florida Business Journal:
Florida banks await market rebound
BradentonHerald.com 404
Can ECB RAISE rates ????:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/07/cnecb107.xml
FDIC's Sheila Bair Launches Ad Hominem Attack on Subprime Plan's Critics
Sheila Bair Launches Ad Hominem Attack on Subprime Plan’s Critics « naked capitalism
Yes, SIV's are dead. Finished. We're never gonna see them again. A failed product. We're all much wiser. ....So,...what name are they going to use for them next time?
sdtfs | 12.07.07 - 8:06 pm | #
How about their legal name?
Charitable Trusts.
Securitisation: basic structures: example of a master trust structure
"It is perfectly acceptable for funds to do this: The rules governing money-market mutual funds don't require funds to tell shareholders how much their investments are really worth."
How Much Is a Fund Really Worth? - WSJ.com
For Tanta: Fannie Mae Introduces ‘Adverse Market’ Loan Fees, Reduces Financing in Areas Hardest Hit by Price Declines : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
and for CR:
China Tells Banks to Raise Reserves to Cool Economy (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Hey James -
You may not be going to Europe or Asia anytime soon, but those suckers are bidding up the prices you pay for everything that you need since they're relative purchasing power keeps increasing. So as long as you dont mind paying more for food, oil, anything with metal in it, outsourced services, etc. you'll be just fine. Thats why I get a chuckle when people say our exports are increasing and that will offset other issues - it means were shipping our friends oversees more food, scrap paper, scrap metal and other resources (I'm involved in the global transportation business) - none of which is good news for the US consumer or US manufacturer, or really helps truly "grow" our domestic economy.
A week US dollar is not a good thing for the economy - and it has never been considered to be - in order for people to rationalize the disaster in our currency and the situation we're in that mindset has changed. Remember, we're a global economy and while you may not be going to Europe or Asia anytime soon, the US companies that you invest in will be - and worse for them, their oversees competitors will be coming here and competing with them for resources and raw materials. Also, carve out the foreign currency gains for the Dow over the past 12 months and you'll be quite disappointed in what you see in the earnings trend. When the Euro weakens (which is coming soon given their issues) much of those paper currency gains will be given back as losses in the coming quarters. I'm sure the bulls will be more than willing to classify those losses as non-recurring then while they've somehow failed to recognize that fact over the past year.....
The dollar decline is a huge problem regardless of your personal vacation plans.
I put up some charts of the data from the Flow of Funds Accounts if anyone is interested.
Real Estate, Disposable Income, Debt, and Home Equity
It is mostly just variants on the theme that CR posted earlier.
Hey Anon: thanks for the lecture. Most of my posts are ironic but you probably doh't do irony. Anyway most of my investments, recent, have been in foreign stocks that have risen more than the dollar has fallen. And what do you means the lower dollar is not good for the USA? A low RMB has been good for China. The US needs to export more to balance our trade and the lower dollar is about the only way to do that. If inflation goes up (and so far it has hardly moved up, albeit a wee bit) then the Fed can put on the brakes and we'll have the recession all you whiny bears are longing for. I don't mind either. And you have a very unsophisticated and jingoistic notion of the US economy. We're not alone in the world and capitalism is international, you know.
Where's Waldo, errr.... Buffett. Oh goody, another Burrett sighting!
"For what it is worth, there is a rumor that Warren Buffett, who knows a lot about insurance, is eyeing an investment in bond insurers."
Buy Some Insurance - Forbes.com
ABX up sharply over the past couple of weeks. Could Goldman have by chance seen this coming and covered their positions in a hurry, unloading their CDS on yet more unsuspecting bagholders?
I wonder wink how on earth Goldman's timing could have been so good? Could they have a partly bald crystal ball that sings in a stutter?
I suppose if the big boys can get AAA ratings on crap, the individual ought to be able to juice his or her own numbers, too:
"Lousy credit? Buy somebody else's:"
Offer: Lousy credit? Buy somebody else's -- latimes.com
Actually, I can't believe this scam will be around very long.
Stag Mark- are you time shifted? I figured you for a night blogger.
Stag Mark,
Awesome charts. Thanks. Really liked the ones on corporate profits too.
GS will get hit. GS can be lucky once or twice but then your deeds catch up and when they do, they usually come in a s*it pile.
Bloomberg News
yeah, in a sudden reversal, Dick Bove re-downgrades GS, BSC and LEH to sell from hold.
"We do not see asset values rising appreciably in the coming months, and we could see price erosion continue"
If this is the general sentiment, then the Paulson 'Hope' plan is already a failure. The purpose of that plan was to stabilize market expectations. If it does not do so, it is DOA.
Stag Mark
thanks for the graphs!
"Lousy credit? Buy somebody else's:"
Actually, I can't believe this scam will be around very long.
sportsfan | 12.08.07 - 10:33 am | #
Flat out crazy. What bank would agree to this? I guess we'll find out in the court filings.
144 rule cut down to 6 months?
So the answer to keep your house from being robbed is by removing all the doors and windows?
The basic repeal of 144 will mean some world class pump n dumps will be filling our bloomberg terminals next summer.
I think Jas may be right.
"The dollar decline is a huge problem regardless of your personal vacation plans.
Anonymous | 12.08.07 - 8:24 am | # "
I am somewhat torn on a weaker dollar. A few years ago i started a part time business selling certain american sourced used items mainly to europe. About six months ago my business exploded. Exploded to the point i will make more working 20-25 hrs a week vs my very good 40 hr a week job. A weak dollar has been VERY good to me.
Heck my main job is with a multinational and we just had a announcement wed all hourly employees are getting a 11% raise. Works out to a little over 3.50 hr for me...Like i said,i am sorta torn on a weaker dollar...
Chris
Chris,
True. The lower dollar and disaster in leveraged trading carry the seeds of revival within them, just as a forest fire reseeds a new forest. It is painful, but it must happen. That's why I don't think the Fed is on the right path at the moment.
In a few years lot of US companies will have strong businesses in export trade.
"A few years ago i started a part time business selling certain american sourced used items mainly to europe."
Chris,
that may be the key. your company doesn't sound like it needs to buy expensive raw materials for manufacturing. in addition if ppl are dumping used items for cash that would also benefit you.
but in general our service based economy cannot be exported and many companies will be hit with higher raw material costs. what i think we're witnessing is the weakening of our economy from a weak dollar and the secondary side effects of certain businesses benefitting in the short run from that weak dollar. i don't think we can weaken our currency and expect it to lead to more prosperity.
Peter Schiff has talked extensively about this.
Idoc,
I almost fell over wed when we were told of the raises. Our company is a HUGE user of petroleum based products. It is our single largest expense. The only thing i can think of is our overseas income is strong enough to compensate for a weak dollar. From an inside view we,as a company,are making some very good moves to weather this downturn.
I will say this though...This years christmas season is looking to be very weak.
Chris
Cobra
i'm curious. what do u mean by american sourced used items?
Sat Dec 8, 7:51 AM ET
TEHRAN (AFP) - Major crude producer Iran has completely stopped carrying out its oil transactions in dollars, Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said on Saturday, labelling the greenback an "unreliable" currency.
"At the moment, selling oil in dollars has been completely halted, in line with the policy of selling crude in non-dollar currencies," Nozari was quoted as saying by the ISNA news agency.
"The dollar is an unreliable currency, considering its devaluation and the oil exporters' losses," he added.
Talk of gaming White House mortgage plan emerges
Experts worry borrowers may stop paying bills to qualify for reset freeze
A day after the White House unveiled a program to salvage the mortgage market, people are already talking about how borrowers might game the system.
How to game the White House mortgage program: stop paying bills - MarketWatch
Interesting but as somewhat of a contrairan I wonder if that is what our leaders are actualy anticipating. When other type loans eventualy get inclused in this cluster.
rebear, GS is mining gems from the bottom of the shitpile. A cave-in is inevitable.
Gaming the system is as American as apple pie. It would be a shame if only the Wall Street boys and Republican cronies could game the system. Let the games begi
Idoc,
I am a automotive junkyard scrounger. On my way home from work i pass 6 or so junkyards. I stop by a couple a days a week and see whats shown up. If you know what to look for you can make a mint selling online. I have been doing this off and on for damn near 20 years to make an extra buck.
The dawn of the interwebs really made it nice because i don't have to drag all my shit to automotive swap meets.
I will also say /cough/ Cash is nice /cough/.
Chris
James -
I'll assume your recent post was serious rather than sarcastic - let me know if I'm wrong. My firm is heavily invested in China and its been a great place to be - that country lives on exports right now although that is changing - but they were even more reliant on exports in the 99-02 period when their currency was much higher than today - and it did little to deter it. The US and Japan are by far China's biggest export markets - their currencies have been as week or weaker than China yet China's exports continue to grow - if you look at their currency changes compared to their export partners on a weighted average basis over the past few years I think you'll find that their currency weakness relative to their export partners isn't that great at all.
Glad to hear you're making money in Europe - too bad you dont go there - its a lovely place as is China.
Dont think my views of the US economy are as simplistic as you think. I've spent a lot of time investing and operating companies in it on a global basis for the past 2 decades. The businesses I am involved in now are all seeing business slow in the US and many are complaining about raw material inflation due to foreign demand that they cant pass through in the US markets since they are slowing.
I have been a bull for 90% of the past 20+ years. I am not one now. Credit contracts then business slows. This credit contraction is severe and spreading. Based upon what I have seen as an operator and investor I see a recession right around the corner. Regardless of what I think, earnings are not going to be good in Q4 or 2008 - and capital budgets are getting cut. You may not like hearing it but thats whats happening in the trenches.
Good luck with your investments.
Merrill Slashes Ratings on AMEX, Capital One and Discover to sell...
Merrill Slashes Ratings on AMEX, Capital One and Discover -- Seeking Alpha
Anonymous | 12.08.07 - 12:31 pm | #
Could you make up a tag? I'd like to read your future posts within context! Thanks.
Stag Mark,
Awesome charts as usual.
"The word ugly does not do it justice."
I would therefore use fugly.
BTW, my Super Colander Tin Foil Hat is flashing red lights looking at the very choppy dollar action. If you have the time for it, one of your little chaos charts on dollar action would be interesting.
Cheers,
sdtfs -
sure - I'll go by "In the trenches"
"But it seems to me that the process of a servicer dealing with a borrower should be much less time-consuming at this point than at origination, when servicers had to deal with providing competing (and therefore multiple) quotes."
The company that originates the loan and the company that services it are often not the same, especially with securitised loans. Also, part of the problems being addressed by the plan, according to the ASF, is that borrowers may not want to speak to the servicer if they're having difficulty - this allows them to freeze the rates without explicit borrower consent, provided they make an effort to contact the borrower.
Sorry, dont have a homepage - my mistake...
"More Enhanced Cash Troubles: Columbia StratCash Halts Redemptions. Market rumors swirled Friday that the largest entrant in the "enhanced cash" space, Columbia's Strategic Cash had halted redemptions. Enhanced cash pools, or "3c-7" funds, are private placements available to only the largest qualified institutional investors. We've received no official word from Columbia yet, but multiple investors and sources tell Crane Data that redemptions have been frozen temporarily but may be made "in kind", and that the pool is beginning the process of winding down or liquidating. Over half of the pool, $21 billion, has been separated into a "StratCash 2" portfolio, perhaps signaling a very large "in kind" separation. Assets of the now 2 pools have not declined precipitously, contrary to some rumors. StratCash has been gradually declined from $40 billion to $33 billion over the past several weeks. Columbia parent Bank of America reportedly set aside $300 million to support the pool previously. As in Florida, we don't believe any investors have suffered losses to date, and the fund's NAVs have remained at $1.00 a share so far. StratCash becomes the latest enhanced cash product to retreat from the besieged sector. Federated returned investors' money in full from its small entrant last month, taking a $4.9 million loss, and GE Asset Management liquidated its GE Enhanced Cash at $0.96 cents on the dollar."
Crane Data Money Market Mutual Fund News and Intelligence
This pretty much sums up Columbia's position on the issues-
"Money market investing involves certain risks. An investment in the fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund."
Columbia Funds - Welcome
The subprime scapegoat is looking more and more like a non issue and more and more like politics.....but why? What is the motivation beyond the obvious bank bail out mentality here? Is America about to have a run on banks or will corporations dive in valuation without Bush & Paulson getting involved with market efficiency? Whats going on?
The lady doth protest too much, methinks". - (Act III, Scene II)!
There does seem to be a liquidity problem, a foreclosure problem, a dollar valuation issue, banking problems, oil problems, inflation/stagflation concerns, but yet, we have the President saying the economy is doing a heck of a great job, and then he pops up with Paulson, as if reading a script to say the subprime thing is under control............huh?
The lady doth protest too much, methinks". - (Act III, Scene II)
My take on this is Machiavellianism versus Shakespearian, i.e, I think this drama is based on the fact that The Fed, with the full blessing of The Senate, Congress and all these fine people like Bair, Helicopter Ben, Paulson, etc...... were having trouble modifying/privatizing Social Security, so they gave America a 900 page Pension Reform Act, which now links your pension to muni junk bonds and bogus subprime collateral!
August 2006 - Landmark pension reform legislation passed last night by Congress and expected to be signed by the President this month includes the most significant changes to the fiduciary provisions of ERISA since its enactment in 1974. The new legislation (the "Pension Reform Act") significantly relaxes the rules governing when asset-backed securities ("ABS"), including commercial mortgage backed securities ("CMBS") and collateralized debt obligations("CDOs"), may be offered to investors holding certain types of retirement plan assets. Absent an exception, issuers of ABS, CMBS and CDOs that are not structured as debt must comply with ERISA, including its stringent fiduciary and prohibited transaction rules -- which is not practical for most ABS, CMBS and CDO issuers. One regulatory exception (known as the "Significant Participation Exception") relied on by many issuers of either below-investmentgrade ABS, CMBS and CDOs or ABS, CMBS or CDOs that are not characterized as debt for tax (each of which typically cannot be characterized asdebt for ERISA purposes) applies if an issuer does not have "significant participation" by "benefit plan investors".
http://www.mayerbrown.com/cdo/publications/article.asp?id=2901&nid=3655
Who helped educate our simple minded government employees:
President Bush Signs Pension Reform Act
The Asset Managers Division is pleased to report that President George Bush signed the Pension Reform Act which modernizes the Employee Retirement Security Income Act (ERISA). Of particular note, the new pension legislation includes a prohibited transaction exemption for cross-trading between separate pension accounts held with the same money manager and boosts the
President Bush Signs Pension Reform Act; Cross Trading Exemption Included
President Bush this week signed the Pension Reform Act (H.R. 4), comprehensive pension legislation that represents a significant overhaul of the prohibited transaction provisions of the 32-year old Employee Retirement Security Income Act. H.R.4 is Public Law No: 109-280. The changes include a prohibited transaction exemption for cross-trading between separate pension accounts held with the same money manager and boost the level of ERISA assets that can be invested in investment vehicles such as hedge funds. Under the legislation, cross-trading would be allowed for private pension plans with at least $100M in assets, resulting in lower transaction costs for pension plans.
November 30, 2007 6:27 PM
29 C.F.R. sec. 2510.3-101(a) (2005). As a result, a person who exercises authority or control
respecting management or disposition of the assets of the entity or renders investment advice with respect
to the assets for a fee (direct or indirect) is a plan fiduciary.
Present Law
Present law provides statutory exemptions from the prohibited transaction rules for
certain transactions.136 Present law does not provide a statutory prohibited transaction exemption
for cross trades.
Explanation of Provision
The provision provides prohibited transaction exemptions under ERISA and the Code for
a transaction involving the purchase and sale of a security between a plan and any other account
managed by the same investment manager if certain requirements are met. These requirements
are-
the transaction is a purchase or sale, for no consideration other than cash payment
against prompt delivery of a security for which market quotations are readily
available;
the transaction is effected at the independent current market price of the security;
no brokerage commission fee (except for customary transfer fees, the fact of which is
disclosed) or other remuneration is paid in connection with the transaction;
a fiduciary (other than the investment manager engaging in the cross trades or any
affiliate) for each plan participating in the transaction authorizes in advance of any
cross-trades (in a document that is separate from any other written agreement of the
parties) the investment manager to engage in cross trades at the investment managers
discretion, after the fiduciary has received disclosure regarding the conditions under
which cross trades may take place (but only if the disclosure is separate from any
other agreement or disclosure involving the asset management relationship),
including the written policies and procedures of the investment manager;
each plan participating in the transaction has assets of at least $100,000,000, except
that, if the assets of a plan are invested in a master trust containing the assets of plans
maintained by employers in the same controlled group, the master trust has assets of
at least $100,000,000;
the investment manager provides to the plan fiduciary who has authorized cross
trading a quarterly report detailing all cross trades executed by the investment
manager in which the plan participated during such quarter, including the following
information as applicable: the identity of each security bought or sold, the number of
136 In addition, under ERISA section 408(a), the Secretary of Labor may grant exemptions with
respect to particular transactions or classes of transactions after consultation and coordination with the
Secretary of Treasury. An exemption may not be granted unless the Secretary of Labor finds that the
exemption is administratively feasible, in the interests of the plan and its participants and beneficiaries,
and protective of the r
Thomas Martin, president of the Homeowners Consumer Center, a Washington, D.C.-based consumer advocacy group, estimates that pension funds will take a $1 trillion hit from the devalued securities. 'This is going to be scary,' he said in an interview with Thomson Financial News. 'We think the Fed will have to step in and bail out at least the pension funds.'
The California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPers), the nation's largest public pension fund with more than $255 billion in assets, has a residential housing portfolio of about $2 billion. Spokesman Brad Pacheco said CalPers does not have any loss estimates yet. 'As far the subprime [issue] is concerned, we are watching this closely,' Pacheco wrote Thomson Financial in an e-mail.
Ratings agencies have many of these securities on watch-negative, and on Tuesday, Moody's downgraded more than 70 of Countrywide's Alt-A deals, which are deals rated just above subprime. Those are but a few of the hundreds of downgrades at the ratings firms on tens of billions of dollars' worth of bonds issued over the past several years. More will come as defaults rise on adjustable mortgages which will soon reset to unaffordable levels. And as defaults rise, investors are finding their CDOs have no collateral backing them.
Public pension fund's debt portfolios must, under federal guidelines, consist mostly of investment grade securities, meaning pension funds may be forced to realize the losses by selling any downgraded securities. Asked whether CalPers will have to sell any below-investment grade securities, Pacheco said, 'we do have options to deal with these, instead of selling.'
The lawsuits against money managers have been rolling in from angry investors and employees who have incurred losses because of lenders' risky involvement in the subprime market. Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) , Citigroup's (NYSE:C) 401(k) plan, State Street Corp. (NYSE:STT) , Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC) , and AIG (NYSE:AIG) are among those who have been sued.
In the suit against Citigroup, for instance, participants allege that the Citi plan breached fiduciary duties to employees by exposing them to the risky subprime market and by making off-balance sheet transactions.
And at least one pension fund, Teamsters Union Local 282, has filed a suit against Moody's for giving excessively high ratings to bonds backed by subprime mortgages.
Other large pension fund investments are being affected, even if they are not directly in the subprime market. Florida is reportedly planning to sell off about $2.2 billion in asset-backed commercial paper over the next several months. The securities have been downgraded because of concern over weakness stemming from the subprime meltdown.
The shock waves from the credit debacle are reaching overseas pension funds, such as Mexico's Afores. Like U.S. pension funds, Afores are also governed by strict asset allocation guidelines.
'We are a Mexican pension fund, so
Hedge fund central:
Gay porn star comes clean about link to murdered hedge funder Seth Tobias
BLS - Wages up 1/2% M/M. Is that a worrisome inflation reading, from the real ecomony? Is that suggestive to Ben, to lower radically, FF by 50bpts?
Dunno, but I think there may be some on the reserve board that may object. I think a hold or even rate hike is in order, until the effects of the 75bpts cut over the past couple of months show up in economic readings. Tough to slow down inflation once the psychology in entrenched.
Don't Cry For Me Argentina.
Anonymous,
If you are a woman, I'd give you a big kiss. Because I'm lazy I have not done the data search you did, but I've been harping on the ERISA situation for quite a while. You've brought into focus the finger pointing I've been doing, as in:
Look over there...ERISA!
Brilliant....
Cheers,
This shoe is out, is pension fund exposure the next (or one of the next)?
States' Investment Strategy Scrutinized
Saturday December 8, 6:21 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Many State Officials Have Explaining to Do About Exotic Investments Made on Wall Street
NEW YORK (AP) -- State treasurers from Florida to Maine to Montana have found themselves in the awkward position this past week of having to explain why they parked taxpayer money in some of the most opaque investments on Wall Street.
More than a dozen state-run cash pools that manage money for local governments have some exposure to mortgage-related and other high-risk holdings that roiled credit markets this past summer, according to rating agency Standard & Poor's.
[snip]
OMG- I forgot I was vested in the Western Confeence Teamster Pension. I wonder whether they're directly affected/infected? Wasn't counting on it, so it's more academic. What I liked was that it was "safe", reviewed by a judge because of all those LCN relationships. What is LCN you ask? I was puzzled too; until I saw La Cosa Nostra. I thought those names looked familiar.
Barely,
I'm looking for more dissent on the Fed.
The Bank of Japan came in for stinging criticism from Bernanke: he claims they made lame excuses for not adding liquidity in the 90's. If lowering rates didn't do the job, Bernanke argued, they should have bought debt directly. There was simply no excuse for failure to add liquidity.
Fast forward to today. 75bps of cuts and no liquidity added. Bernanke finds himself in exactly the same situation as the BOJ. If he's going to remain true to his convictions, then he has to cut deeper and faster, so he has time to resort to more extreme (buying mortgages outright) options.
Now fold in the rest of the FOMC. Mishkin is BB's alter ego, and Kohn seems somewhat convinced. But there's likely two votes on the board that don't see it Bernanke's way. If BB wants to stay true, he has to risk dissent. There is no other way, because there is NO EXCUSE for failure.
barely,
"I think a hold or even rate hike is in order"
Yep, but PV is not Fed Chairman...Bernutty is...sucks huh?
Cheers,
Hedge fund central:
Man, all the stereotypes about the industry are true apparently.
I for one welcome the new leaders of our financial system:
The plot thickened when a flamboyant character named Bill Ash claimed Filomena Tobias confessed she lured her coked-up hubby to his death by coaxing him into the pool with the promise of sex with Tiger.
StratCash 2" portfolio, perhaps signaling a very large "in kind" separation. Assets of the now 2 pools have not declined precipitously, contrary to some rumors. StratCash has been gradually declined from $40 billion to $33 billion over the past several weeks. Columbia parent Bank of America reportedly set aside $300 million to support the pool previously.
Connect the dots.
StratCash = funding from Bank of America.
1st Marblehead = securitization via Bank of America (mainly).
Bank of America seems to be pulling back.
Anonymous says:
James -... My firm is heavily invested in China and its been a great place to be - that country lives on exports right now although that is changing - but they were even more reliant on exports in the 99-02 period when their currency was much higher than today ... The US and Japan are by far China's biggest export markets - their currencies have been as week or weaker than China yet China's exports continue to grow...
Glad to hear you're making money in Europe - too bad you dont go there -
What on earth are you talking about "their currency higher than today"???. The yuan has been tied to the dollar since 1995 at 8.28/$; it was revalued to 8.11/$ in 2005 and now is in a managed float and trades at about 7.414/$. As for the yen since the yuan has been tied to the dollar until recently it fluctuated vs the yen as did the dollar.
I used to live in Europe, so I really don't need to "go there."
Why do you always spell weak as "week"? A week has seven days; weak is the opposite of strong.
The Bank of Japan came in for stinging criticism from Bernanke: he claims they made lame excuses for not adding liquidity in the 90's. If lowering rates didn't do the job, Bernanke argued, they should have bought debt directly. There was simply no excuse for failure to add liquidity.
Fast forward to today. 75bps of cuts and no liquidity added. Bernanke finds himself in exactly the same situation as the BOJ. If he's going to remain true to his convictions, then he has to cut deeper and faster, so he has time to resort to more extreme (buying mortgages outright) options.
I think Ben is simply naive.
He's apparently mystified by the BoJ's reluctance to, in effect, hand out wealth. This makes me think he's just an "Ivory Tower" academic with no "street smarts".
Talking about helicopter drops is all well and good, but the second he actually makes a concrete proposal to start taking the wealth of politicians, fund managers, businessmen, etc. and "dropping it out of helicopters", he might start to understand the BoJ's reluctance.
People who came to power by spending all their life's effort and resourcefulness to accumulate wealth may have something to say about it when some nerd academic comes to take it from them and hand it out to people who bought stuff they couldn't afford because they didn't spend all their life working and understanding the world the lived in.
Don't cry for me Argentina? That gives me an idea. Let's replace Bernanke with Marcos Victorica (a real economist).
Heck my main job is with a multinational and we just had a announcement wed all hourly employees are getting a 11% raise. Works out to a little over 3.50 hr for me...Like i said,i am sorta torn on a weaker dollar...
Chris
cobradriver
cobradriver,
There is no data set that is more mean-reverting over time than currencies. That's because currency imbalances tend to correct themselves, with a few exceptions, such as corrupt third-world countries.
Wise companies and people don't get dependent on their currency windfalls. So, try to bank a little of that extra cash while you can.
Despite all the hot air, currency gains aren't a positive for U.S. corporate earnings. They help some companies and hurt others, and when the trend reverses it will be vice versa. The problem is when investors start to believe currency gains are propping up earnings and the markets. They are bound to be disappointed. Currency changes are like the wind, fluctuating, sometimes powerful but ultimately not very consequential.
Assets of the now 2 pools have not declined precipitously, contrary to some rumors. StratCash has been gradually declined from $40 billion to $33 billion over the past several weeks.
I guess a about billion a week(?) isn't precipitously.
The exposure of pension funds to the mortgage meltdown is serious, and ultimately a lot of it will fall upon the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., which insures pensions. The PBGC is vastly underfunded to handle a serious pension crisis.
The PBGC can, should and probably will sue the ratings agencies to recover. But even if they obtain most of the ratings agencies' assets and drive them out of business, it may be a drop in the bucket.
Some pensioners may get short changed.
James, Can't resist:
"Why do you always spell weak as "week"? A week has seven days; weak is the opposite of strong."
Does he always? Or perhaps a typo. I suppose you're perfect but sometimes in the blogging realm, people miss type. Teh is common for the. If that's your bitch then you're a wanker.
Cheers,
people miss type. Teh is common for the. If that's your bitch then you're a wanker.
Yeah, take it from one who advertised a bride for sale in Brooklyn
rich,
Well your close...
Drop meet ocean.
Cheers,
stdfs,
A Bride???? I wouldn't sell one of those...
I'm sure it was a bridge.
Cheers,
Oh yes and your just above to rich should be you're...
Cheers,
"The PBGC is vastly underfunded to handle a serious pension crisis"
It's an epidemic of leverage and cheerful optimism, or lack of discipline that allowed the charade. It's a game that works until it stops, just like the mortgage calamity. That is what out fragile house-of-cards economy was built on. An ever increasing load of leverage built on an eroding capital base.
Doesn't take much for the whole mess to collapse. Equities are at the top of the tower and have a long drop ahead.
ac,
You're right. I think that's why BB will run into trouble with the Fed Bank Presidents like Poole, Fisher, Plosser. Even Bies, an uber-dove, is more practical then academic. None of these folks is scholar of the Great Depression, and some, especially Fisher, have said or implied that extreme measures (1% FF rate) led us to this current juncture. Sure they want to be seen as proactive, but that's why they went along with the last two cuts, and probably a gradualist approach of more (25bps a meeting). BB will have to deal with their dissent somehow.
James, Can't resist:
"Why do you always spell weak as "week"? A week has seven days; weak is the opposite of strong."
Does he always? Or perhaps a typo. I suppose you're perfect but sometimes in the blogging realm, people miss type. Teh is common for the. If that's your bitch then you're a wanker.
Cheers,
Misean | 12.08.07 - 2:08 pm | #
It doesn't seem to be a typo since he keeps doing it. And he has no clue re the yuan over the past 12 years although he says he is involved in business in China. I....well...I am not impressed to be nice about it.
And in YOUR case..."miss type"??!!
Shouldn't you at least be politically correct and write "Ms. type"? LOL.
ac: "People who came to power by spending all their life's effort and resourcefulness to accumulate wealth may have something to say about it when some nerd academic comes to take it from them and hand it out to people who bought stuff they couldn't afford because they didn't spend all their life working and understanding the world the lived in.
actaully , those peopel are very happy that ben will drop dollar from the sky since he will do it in a way that they will be the only one to get the flying notes....
James,
"Shouldn't you at least be politically correct and write "Ms. type"?"
Nope, Ms. is used for a marriage neutral women who doesn't want her marital status known. Further, miss was used as a verb, not a noun. From dictionary.com:
Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) - Cite This Source - Share This
miss1 /mɪs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[mis] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
verb (used with object)
1.\tto fail to hit or strike: to miss a target.
2.\tto fail to encounter, meet, catch, etc.: to miss a train.
3.\tto fail to take advantage of: to miss a chance.
4.\tto fail to be present at or for: to miss a day of school.
5.\tto notice the absence or loss of: When did you first miss your wallet?
6.\tto regret the absence or loss of: I miss you all dreadfully.
7.\tto escape or avoid: He just missed being caught.
8.\tto fail to perceive or understand: to miss the point of a remark.
verb (used without object)
9.\tto fail to hit something.
10.\tto fail of effect or success; be unsuccessful.
noun
11.\ta failure to hit something.
12.\ta failure of any kind.
13.\tan omission.
14.\ta misfire.
Verb phrases
15.\tmiss out, Chiefly British. to omit; leave out.
16.\tmiss out on, to fail to take advantage of, experience, etc.: You missed out on a great opportunity.
Idiom,
I'm sorry if you did not know the function of the word miss in my previous post. I'll try to be clearer in the future. However, I will NOT diagram sentences for you. That's your homework.
Cheers,
barely,
"The PBGC is vastly underfunded to handle a serious pension crisis"
This is the pot on the back burner that is about to boil. ERISA on this stuff is freaking me out, and yet nobody is looking at it.
Elephant Resting In Sitting Area...but invisible...or something.
Cheers,
Nothing on Iran's decision (a good move for them, IMHO) to drop the dollar altogether?
This is HUGE. It's been coming for a while, but George et al have shat the bed so good, they've finally pulled the trigger.
Bye bye, US $.
Elect Republicans, and this is what you get. Remember the lesson. They've managed to nearly destroy our standing in the world in 7 short years.
Linkee:
Emptywheel » Breaking: Persians Still Better at Chess than Americans
Re: Anonymous,
If you are a woman, I'd give you a big kiss. Because I'm lazy I have not done the data search you did, but I've been harping on the ERISA situation for quite a while. You've brought into focus the finger pointing I've been doing, as in:
Look over there...ERISA!
Brilliant....
Cheers,
Misean | 12.08.07 - 1:15 pm | #
Im not a women but thanks anyway.
This is the next shoe to drop and it will impact a lot of people that have no clue that they are buying worthless derivatives with pensions!
And some rock blogging while I'm at it.
YouTube - Silver Haired Trio - Baby Elephant Walk
Cheers,
Economists were able to create a perfect free market in a rat lab. The experiment was terminated when the rats sold the lab and fired the staff.
Anonymous | 12.08.07 - 3:12 pm |
Your info is too good to get lost in the noise. Give us a handle. Please.
Cheers,
Alphabeta,
ROFL,
Cheers,
I'm sorry if you did not know the function of the word miss in my previous post. I'll try to be clearer in the future. However, I will NOT diagram sentences for you. That's your homework.
Cheers,
Misean | 12.08.07 - 2:58 pm | #
You protest too much to be believed. You meant to say "mistype" but screwed it up and now you give me umpteen lines of excuses for your error. You can miss a target but you can't miss type since you cannot use a verb to modify another verb. You might have missed a key on your keyboard but you didn't say that. You can't diagram your sentence since you don't know how.
Misean: If you are eager to defend Anonymous, why don't you defend his statements on the yuan and its value?
James,
Jezus H Christ! You don't know snarky from reality? Get a life man. I'm just farting around.
As to anon...which one? That is why I asked for a handle.
Take a chill pill dude...I'm assuming you're a dude...so don't get churlish...
I was willing to give you the benefit of the doubt but you really are a pri...
Cheers,
James -
Sorry for the mispelling - I'm not a very good typist or speller for that matter. Thank you for making my point on the yuan (oops, almost typed "juan"). You were the one who originally said China has been been doing great with a "weak" currency. My point was that their currency hasn't been weak at all when compared to their major trade partners. Your most recent post further underscores that - which leads me to believe that your first post was an error and that now you agree with me that China's currency has actually been pretty strong when compared to its major trading partners. Also, dollar adjust the yuan since 1995 to see how its performed before you say it was so weak in 99-03 - compare it to the Euro.
Not sure any of it matters, but the "weak" dollar isn't helping matters for any business that is concentrated on the US. The "weak" dollar helping exports argument is somewhat misleading - our biggest exports are food and our junk - which we need to live and make our own metals and paper related products. That was my only point. You think a "weak" dollar is good for the US - I couldn't disagree more. If its so great, why doesnt everyone just shoot for a "weak" currency and why would China feel compelled to continue to strengthen theirs?
The weak dollar just helps the big US based multinationals artificially prop up earnings from foreign currency profits translating into higher dollar profits - irrespective of any nominal growth. That will go the other way in the not too distant future.
Pardon any typos or ms. spellings...
James,
If you need the last few letters to make sense of my last post, they are ck.
Cheers,
A little rock bloging..
This is fun...well respectively,
YouTube -
Cheers,
While looking at pension fund potential problems, remember that many discount rate asumptions currently do not reflect reality in the markets and will need to be adjusted in Q1.
Meaning with the filing of the 10K's.
Man, this place looks like a dive bar at 8:00 am today.
Gary: And you like it...
Banker,
How are you ?
the best increase here : http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ximpim.pdf is in creal and melons.
Not the mark of a great industrial nation... or did I miss something (too many lines for a dyslectic guy)
People who came to power by spending all their life's effort and resourcefulness to accumulate wealth may have something to say about it when some nerd academic comes to take it from them and hand it out to people who bought stuff they couldn't afford because they didn't spend all their life working and understanding the world the lived in.
ac, a large fraction of the wealthy and powerful accumulated wealth through the finance industry, especially in the last decade. Since many of them are the first in line when the fed hands out money, I doubt it they'll complain much.
Best,
oops...if they'll complain much.
OT; But who cares right its Saturday..
Signed: The Doom & Gloomers
Yahoo! News - Not Found
Working Group on Plan Asset Rules, Exemptions, and Cross Trading
Meeting of August 11, 2006
Agenda
Official Transcript
Statement by Gary Glynn, U.S. Steel and Carnegie Pension Fund, representing the Committee on Investment of Employee Benefit Assets
Statement by Alan Wilmit, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., representing the Securities Industry Associatio
Bank Lawyer's Blog
Much Ado About Squat 12/7
It's all about Tanta's initial reaction to the New Hope Plan! "Is it possible to be in lust with a woman's mind? I think so. If Tanta's married, I sure hope she cheats."
Bank Lawyer's Blog: FDIC
Cessation Agreements
The Government proposes to allow a simpler alternative to an Approved Withdrawal Arrangement a Cessation Agreement. This will be an arrangement whereby the debt payable by a withdrawing employer is reduced but a guarantor gives the trustees a long-term guarantee. The key proposals are as follows:
The debt due from the withdrawing employer will be the Cessation Agreement Share. This will be the employers share of the total deficit on the Pensions Act 2004 funding basis (or, if the scheme has not yet moved onto the Pensions Act funding basis, the PPF valuation basis), the share being calculated by reference to liabilities attributable to the employer.
The amount to be guaranteed by the guarantor will be calculated much as under the existing Regulations as to Approved Withdrawal Arrangements, on either a fixed or a floating basis.
The Cessation Agreement will not need to be approved by the Regulator.
However, the trustees will be able to enter into the Agreement only if they are satisfied that the remaining employers' ability and willingness to fund the scheme is not adversely affected, and that the guarantor's assets are such that the guarantor is "likely to pay" the guaranteed amount.
More rumbling over at the Big Picture about mortgage securitizers needing to show documentation that they actually own the mortgages they say they own.
See here
Tanta was commented there too.. If we're lucky, she and Barry will get into a blog war about debtor's privacy rights..
ac, most wealth is inherited wealth. you don't work all your life for an inheritance.
But they'll still scratch and fight for every last nickel, I'll grant you that.
Permanent Republican Minority!
CR,
I nominate the following video for an upcoming Video of the Day.
The people at VERSUS have updated their Malay Ride holiday song.
If you haven't heard it, it is worth a listen! The upbeat song (with its dire lyrics) is sure to appeal to even the most deeply sarcastic amongst us. I can't stop listening to it, lol. sigh
(Thanks for the words of encouragement to all those who appreciate the charts I make.)
As James and anyone else who turned 18 since 2002 knows, the stock market goes up forever, you just have to believe. Where is James? I miss his childish and petulant banter... tugging at the forelock and all that.
"I'm just farting around."
You're telling me?! The stink is unbearable. LOL. Now snark that!
China's currency has actually been pretty strong when compared to its major trading partners.."!!!!
You mean like the Euro? Or the Pound? Geez, why don't you read Brad Setser's blog and learn something? Almost every trading partner of China complains about how weak the RMB is. Can't you follow the news?
Of course the weak dollar helps US exports. As the dollar has dropped our exports have risen. Almost all our major exporters like a weak dollar. You simply don't know what you are talking about. Sad.
Misean, et. alia:
Why don't you do some reading and learn something?? Like this:
FT.com / US & Canada - Weak dollar boosts US exports
Not knowing what you are talking about has never been "attractive" even if you just "fart around" because you can't crap straight. LOL
The ONLY way the US can reverse the balance of payments deficit (and it will HAVE to be reversed eventually) is to export more and that can happen ONLY if the dollar drops drastically in value or other currencies RISE against it, which is in essence the same thing. This will be painful since it means the US will have to EARN its way instead of just issuing worthless pieces of paper to the world; it will have to cut consumption and work to produce things for others to buy. You may know something about real estate. You know very little about international trade.
If Tanta's married, I sure hope she cheats."
I think you're out of luck. She's got way too much confidence and integrity to "cheat". Even if there were some arrangement I'm sure it's carefully spelled out with exceptions noted in the footnotes or addenda, with places for initials on pages 3 through 8.
And I'm sure it's possible to fall in love with a woman's mind,...more than that, this deponent saith not.
RE: Big Picture
If the dollar hadn't dived, maybe they could've outsourced the backtracking of the slice n dice.
Hey James
Pretend you retired 7 years ago with a 50K fixed pension. Still like a week dollar?