Indexes gained sharply after the Fed detailed two moves to bolster markets: At least four auctions of $20 billion each of Fed funds, the first of which are scheduled for Dec. 17 and 20, along with the opening of swap lines with the European Central Bank to provide easier access to liquidity, an element of Tuesday's rate pronouncement that many investors and analysts considered lacking.
The measures were similar to those taken after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
So a 2% decline in stocks is equivalent to two planes crashing into the WTC and another 2 headed for pentagon + white house? WTF???
"Goldilocks was looking for a diamond bracelet from the Fed, a little pre-Christmas present," said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS. "Instead they got cheap rhinestones. She threw a tantrum yesterday and now the Fed shows up with a new box and says, 'Here's one you haven't opened yet honey.' "
probert: These measures weren't in response to the market going down yesterday. There has been tension on the rate at which banks lend to each other for over a month now. You can see that in the Libor 2M and 3M, and their spread over the Fed Funds rate.
OT, re the new CB auction: I keep thinking that this is not a liquidity crisis so much as it is a credit revulsion crisis. Adding more ways to increase liquidity is really not going to help.
Gold sure thought it was inflationary by this morning's price action.
What if the Fed holds the auction and nobody shows up?
Actually, forget that, they'll have at least one person showing up. Mozilo will be sitting in the front row clutching $50BB of trash Alt-A CDOs in his hands as "collateral".
28-day term? Perfect--just long enough to cash out the rest of the stock options before the company collapses.
I feel like Lt Dan in Forrest gump opn the mast. The PPT including the Fed is unloading every round of ammunition it can find and I am screaming, "Is that all you've got!!"
More liquidity injections from central banks globally! I'm beginning to think that buying gold jewelry for Christmas this year might amount to a 50% off sale compared to Christmas 08.
Countrywide is not a "depository institution". They are not eligible to use the new TAF. (If they were, they could just as easily use the discount window.)
This move is not as huge as it sounded at first. It is really identical to the discount window but with the Fed initiating the action. It may help stabilize the real banking system, but the credit problems go way beyond that.
If/when the Fed extends this facility to non-depository institutions, that will be huge news.
I give up. I do not even want to believe I have an iota of understanding of the credit and capital markets.
Even IF the house prices do not fall from the current levels, access to HELOCs resulting from increasing housing prices is gone. By some estimates, HELOC funding accounted for about 2% of consumer spending last year. All things being equal, if 2% of 70% (consumer spending contribution to GDP) drops, will it not be enough to call it a recession? The stock markets are cheering away to life-time highs, as if we were living in the best of times.
The party will not stop until a vast majority of population reach debt levels where their income does not cover the minimum possible interest payment.
Oh! That is wrong. A government co-ordinated cram down of sorts, with most foerign lenders holding the bag, should get the party roaring again.
I swear to God there must be a large whiteboard hanging in Ben's office gridded into squares M-F 8:30AM-6:00PM. The banks call up and ask if they can get a good square for when to release bad data. Ben says "Friday after the bell? A you sh¡tting me? Those squares are booked until Spring 2011. And don't even ask about the day before any Fed Meeting. Look Angelo, you gotta realize there are front line soldiers and there are generals. Get back to the front."
Nemo: "Countrywide is not a "depository institution". They are not eligible to use the new TAF."
I thought they had a banking arm? Although I'm not perfectly clear on which banks can borrow directly from the discount window and which can't. But it's widely speculated that CFC has been trying to move its toxic waste out of the lending arm and into the banking arm.
But even if not, I have to think that there are financial institutions out there who are taking a long, hard look at their deep piles of toxic waste and wondering to themselves if there's a way that they can package it as collateral for a loan from the Fed.
OT-
Warren Buffet raising money for Hillary Clinton in San Francisco. Includes his comments on mortgages. Looks like he is doing everything he can to get kicked out of the PPT, or Trilateral Commission or whatever Old Rich White Man Club is running the country these days.
Yes, but the toxic waste is held by the mortgage business, not the bank. Or something.
The point is that this new facility is only available to the same institutions that could already go to the discount window. If Countrywide can participate in these auctions, they could already go to the discount window. As far as I know, they aren't, so either they are ineligible or they have a cheaper source (FHLB).
Anyway, the good news is that this is not a bail-out. The bad news is that this is not a bail-out...
Real estate is a very poor long term investment due to its very low liquidity, especially at times when high liquidity is needed the most. I am amazed by everyone crying over not being able to purchase a home -- why would you want to? So there were a lot of imprudent people out there -- they did not hurt you unless you let them. There are many types of investments out there. Think for yourselves. Take the money you save from renting and use it to build real wealth with interest that will pay for your rent and utilities too. Live rent free. Find the best FDIC insured assets or use Treasury direct for safe rent free living. Renters can use the time they save by not having to do home repairs or maintainence to study the stock market and familiarize themselves with industries and with technical trading. Use a smaller part of your assets in the stock market. Be glad that you are prudent. Recognize that Shiller is right -- housing has never been a good investment. Real estate is a trap, especially when it looks its best!
Yes we have been watching that and the outstandings for some time here - which declined for the 17th straight week last week - and the decline in ABCP for the month of November was only outpaced by the kickoff month of August.
"The general purpose is to provide cash to the money market to get through the end of the year and perhaps beyond..."
Oh dear, I hate to break it to them but the end of the year is less than three weeks away. What then?
And it gets worse:
"The Bank of England, as part of the coordinated action of worldwide central banks, expanded the range of securities it will take as collateral against funds at three-month maturities. For the first time, it will accept bonds issued by sovereign nations rated Aa3/AA- or above; bonds by G10 government agencies guaranteed by national governments rated AAA; conventional AAA debt issued by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, the Federal National Mortgage Corporation and the Federal Home Loan Banking system; and AAA-related U.K., U.S. or European asset-backed securities backed by credit cards and U.K. or European residential mortgage-backed securities"
Great, so we're taking all the crap now. I'd love to know how that was decided. Sheesh.
confused said: "I give up. I do not even want to believe I have an iota of understanding of the credit and capital markets.
Even IF the house prices do not fall from the current levels, access to HELOCs resulting from increasing housing prices is gone. By some estimates, HELOC funding accounted for about 2% of consumer spending last year. All things being equal, if 2% of 70% (consumer spending contribution to GDP) drops, will it not be enough to call it a recession? The stock markets are cheering away to life-time highs, as if we were living in the best of times...."
Things are considerably easier to understand if you step back and take a longer view, as day-to-day activity is almost entirely noise without any order to it. MSM news accounts (and often the blogs written as responses to them) typically just add to the confusion.
Your mention of HELOC-based spending drying-up as a result of no-longer increasing house prices is a great example of the simplistic, one-dimensional view being flogged right now.
What about people like me, of whom there are millions, who have considerable home equity that they've never touched, or only withdrawn sparingly? Even if the price that my home could fetch did fall, I'd still have a lot of equity I could pull out and spend if I wanted/needed to.
As to recessions, let me put your mind at ease.
At the end of a business cycle (just prior to recession), the economy is growing at an unsustainably-high pace that will result in high inflation. The Fed deliberately attempts to choke-off that growth with aggressive tightening.
Q: Does that "fit" with the current situation? Has the economy been growing at the upper limits of its capacity? Has the Fed been aggressively tightening in response to that condition?
Just because the media makes a big deal about an issue doesn't make it a big issue. Just because they give an idea a lot of airtime or column-inches doesn't make it true.
Maybe they should just accept everything as collateral, print everyone a pile of $100,000 Wienmarks, dollars, pesos, or whatevers, and call it a day since everyone will be rich. That's about the level of stupidity I see from the clowns running this show.
Good to see the Fed's actions have had an effect - import prices up 11% since last year, inflation up 2.7% this past month, oil prices heading back up, gold going up, etc. Yep, the Fed is doing SOMETHING, for sure!
The perils of asset economies and the games of musical chairs are in theathers everywhere in the Western Hemisphere. This spectacle has been rated AAA by our best rating agencies.
"Has the Fed been aggressively tightening in response to that condition?"
Sebastian | 12.12.07 - 12:00 pm
Why yes, they have.
Rate hikes started June 2004, continued up through June 2006, stayed flat for over a year until the FFR cut in September 2007.
I don't count the Discount Rate cut in August because the lower rate could still be considered "punitive".
In the Open Market Committee's statements, any rate cuts since 2006 have been attributed to the self-induced crisis of the U.S. commercial banking system and its threat to the economy, not to the usual economic weaknesses.
"Has the Fed been aggressively tightening in response to that condition?"
Sebastian | 12.12.07 - 12:00 pm
Why yes, it has, actually.
Regular rate hikes starting June 2006 through June 2006, stayed flat until the Fed Funds Rate cut in September 2007.
In Open Market Committee's statements, the rate cuts since Sept 2007 were due to the self-induced crisis in the U.S. commercial banking system, and not to the usual economic weaknesses.
So the Fed having to create this new facility is bullish, and not the result of any big deal that the simple minded MSM and blogosphere is incomprehensibly lathered up about?
"The Bank of England, as part of the coordinated action of worldwide central banks, expanded the range of securities it will take as collateral against funds at three-month maturities. For the first time, it will accept bonds issued by sovereign nations rated Aa3/AA- or above; bonds by G10 government agencies guaranteed by national governments rated AAA; etc."
Witness the free fall of ratings over the last couple of months, basing a decision on them does not inspire confidence.
sebastian, "As to recessions, let me put your mind at ease.:)"
So, it's al just media hype? The consumer still has legs then, and we should assume growth will resume?
LOL! I'm still bracing for the soft landing, now characterized by MS as a mild recession.
We have an unstable economy, all predicated upon credit expansion, that shut down this year. I am expecting a US led recession that deepens considerably as the global slump, more pronounced in emerging markets, gets progressively worse. Nasty once the olympics are over in China.
psychodave said: "...Rate hikes started June 2004, continued up through June 2006, stayed flat for over a year until the FFR cut in September 2007."
Technically speaking, there were rate "hikes" beginning in June, 2004. However, those "hikes" weren't actually "tightening", but take-backs of the excess stimulus of extremely low rates from when the Fed was "fighting" the recession. This is what happens subsequent to every recession.
Understanding this difference (between letting up on the gas and slamming down on the brakes) is crucial to understanding where we are in the economic cycle, and the reason why there are going to be a lot of people (CR included) who are going to be surprised by what comes next for the economy, the stock market and the housing market. The bears are expecting dramatically-worse conditions just when things are getting ready to improve.
barely said: "So, it's all just media hype? The consumer still has legs then, and we should assume growth will resume?"
You tell me. If there's going to be a recession, is it going to be in the newspapers before the fact? Are the President, the Fed, the money-center banks, the brokerage houses, the homebuilders, etc., even going to be mentioning it, much less forecasting it?
CR: What about a thread discussing the new Fed & foreign central bank credit facility announced today?
Well, I never!
Financial institutions declaring unexpected losses--who has ever heard of such a thing?
Why, if one more financial institution declares unexpected losses, I might have to start saying that we're in the middle of a crisis.
U.S. Stock Market Report - CNBC
Indexes gained sharply after the Fed detailed two moves to bolster markets: At least four auctions of $20 billion each of Fed funds, the first of which are scheduled for Dec. 17 and 20, along with the opening of swap lines with the European Central Bank to provide easier access to liquidity, an element of Tuesday's rate pronouncement that many investors and analysts considered lacking.
The measures were similar to those taken after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
So a 2% decline in stocks is equivalent to two planes crashing into the WTC and another 2 headed for pentagon + white house? WTF???
From same link:
MMI Alert!!!
"Goldilocks was looking for a diamond bracelet from the Fed, a little pre-Christmas present," said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS. "Instead they got cheap rhinestones. She threw a tantrum yesterday and now the Fed shows up with a new box and says, 'Here's one you haven't opened yet honey.' "
So now it's a bracelet.
Today's big yen dump and equity pump feels manipulated and desperate.
Every time the Fed "injects liquidity," it tanks the yen and juices stocks, but only temporarily.
It also pushes up oil and gold, and those increases stick.
probert: These measures weren't in response to the market going down yesterday. There has been tension on the rate at which banks lend to each other for over a month now. You can see that in the Libor 2M and 3M, and their spread over the Fed Funds rate.
OT, re the new CB auction: I keep thinking that this is not a liquidity crisis so much as it is a credit revulsion crisis. Adding more ways to increase liquidity is really not going to help.
Gold sure thought it was inflationary by this morning's price action.
And in the "you get what you deserve" category, we have oil prices starting to go vertical again:
Jan 2008 Crude
What if the Fed holds the auction and nobody shows up?
Actually, forget that, they'll have at least one person showing up. Mozilo will be sitting in the front row clutching $50BB of trash Alt-A CDOs in his hands as "collateral".
28-day term? Perfect--just long enough to cash out the rest of the stock options before the company collapses.
SALLIE MAE SAYS WOULD-BE ACQUIRERS HAVE WALKED AWAY
"SALLIE MAE SAYS WOULD-BE ACQUIRERS HAVE WALKED AWAY"
why wouldn't they? the us govt. has a magic wand.
The problem with government is politics.
Trade deficit unexpectedly increased in Oct.
Import prices increase by largest amount in 17 years.
So much for exports helping GDP.
(marketwatch)
a,
Of course I am aware of this. I'm just poking fun at how the wall street crowd views these Fed actions.
The dollar is flat, but the Yen is in a nosedive.
Do we really need the Yen carry trade back?
Does that make things better?
I feel like Lt Dan in Forrest gump opn the mast. The PPT including the Fed is unloading every round of ammunition it can find and I am screaming, "Is that all you've got!!"
probert: OK sorry. Irony doesn't travel well on the Internet.
ac,
Check the 1 day on the buck. Something hinkey happened at 9am.
Cheers,
More liquidity injections from central banks globally! I'm beginning to think that buying gold jewelry for Christmas this year might amount to a 50% off sale compared to Christmas 08.
I don't know how reliable forclosures.com is, but from marketwatch:
U.S. foreclosures up 31.8% in November from previous month
That's hideous if true.
Check the 1 day on the buck. Something hinkey happened at 9am.
I saw that, but just assumed it was related to the Fed anouncement.
Not sure how to interpret it just now.
Peripheral Visionary --
Countrywide is not a "depository institution". They are not eligible to use the new TAF. (If they were, they could just as easily use the discount window.)
This move is not as huge as it sounded at first. It is really identical to the discount window but with the Fed initiating the action. It may help stabilize the real banking system, but the credit problems go way beyond that.
If/when the Fed extends this facility to non-depository institutions, that will be huge news.
I give up. I do not even want to believe I have an iota of understanding of the credit and capital markets.
Even IF the house prices do not fall from the current levels, access to HELOCs resulting from increasing housing prices is gone. By some estimates, HELOC funding accounted for about 2% of consumer spending last year. All things being equal, if 2% of 70% (consumer spending contribution to GDP) drops, will it not be enough to call it a recession? The stock markets are cheering away to life-time highs, as if we were living in the best of times.
The party will not stop until a vast majority of population reach debt levels where their income does not cover the minimum possible interest payment.
Oh! That is wrong. A government co-ordinated cram down of sorts, with most foerign lenders holding the bag, should get the party roaring again.
ac | 12.12.07 - 11:06 am | #
Whoa, ac! Considering foreclosure lags NODs by several months, and ARM resets haven't peaked yet, this roller coaster started like a bullet train!
I swear to God there must be a large whiteboard hanging in Ben's office gridded into squares M-F 8:30AM-6:00PM. The banks call up and ask if they can get a good square for when to release bad data. Ben says "Friday after the bell? A you sh¡tting me? Those squares are booked until Spring 2011. And don't even ask about the day before any Fed Meeting. Look Angelo, you gotta realize there are front line soldiers and there are generals. Get back to the front."
ac, I hope that you enjoyed your one day of confidence in Ben and the Fed.
May you have learned your lesson, and never be fooled again.
The Fed and Bernanke are schmucks and criminals; criminal that they try to save their banks while raising prices for everyone else.
Import prices up 11.4% YOY, the highest YOY increase since the series began in 1982.
U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
Schmucks and criminals.
Nemo: "Countrywide is not a "depository institution". They are not eligible to use the new TAF."
I thought they had a banking arm? Although I'm not perfectly clear on which banks can borrow directly from the discount window and which can't. But it's widely speculated that CFC has been trying to move its toxic waste out of the lending arm and into the banking arm.
But even if not, I have to think that there are financial institutions out there who are taking a long, hard look at their deep piles of toxic waste and wondering to themselves if there's a way that they can package it as collateral for a loan from the Fed.
OT-
Warren Buffet raising money for Hillary Clinton in San Francisco. Includes his comments on mortgages. Looks like he is doing everything he can to get kicked out of the PPT, or Trilateral Commission or whatever Old Rich White Man Club is running the country these days.
link:
Mortgage crisis perplexes even shrewd investor Warren Buffett
Peripheral Visionary --
I thought they had a banking arm?
Yes, but the toxic waste is held by the mortgage business, not the bank. Or something.
The point is that this new facility is only available to the same institutions that could already go to the discount window. If Countrywide can participate in these auctions, they could already go to the discount window. As far as I know, they aren't, so either they are ineligible or they have a cheaper source (FHLB).
Anyway, the good news is that this is not a bail-out. The bad news is that this is not a bail-out...
The Federal Reserve exists only to manipulate and interfere with the natural and rational flow of capital.
Because of this fundamental flaw inherit in their very existence, their actions will always be futile and counterproductive to the common good.
Spending eternity treating symptoms instead of preventing the disease is surely the best way of wasting everyone's time and money.
Blame only yourselves for allowing it to continue.
Real estate is a very poor long term investment due to its very low liquidity, especially at times when high liquidity is needed the most. I am amazed by everyone crying over not being able to purchase a home -- why would you want to? So there were a lot of imprudent people out there -- they did not hurt you unless you let them. There are many types of investments out there. Think for yourselves. Take the money you save from renting and use it to build real wealth with interest that will pay for your rent and utilities too. Live rent free. Find the best FDIC insured assets or use Treasury direct for safe rent free living. Renters can use the time they save by not having to do home repairs or maintainence to study the stock market and familiarize themselves with industries and with technical trading. Use a smaller part of your assets in the stock market. Be glad that you are prudent. Recognize that Shiller is right -- housing has never been a good investment. Real estate is a trap, especially when it looks its best!
Trade deficit unexpectedly increased in Oct.
Import prices increase by largest amount in 17 years.
Taking out oil, the trade deficit decreased and import prices were only up 3.0%.
Check out the spreads on commercial paper:
FRB: Commercial Paper Rates and Outstandings
ABCP spread is almost 2% above AA nonfinancial. In the past it has historically been around 0.2%.
Will,
Yes we have been watching that and the outstandings for some time here - which declined for the 17th straight week last week - and the decline in ABCP for the month of November was only outpaced by the kickoff month of August.
"Fed, top central banks move to ease market stress"
Fed, top central banks to flood markets with cash - MarketWatch
"The general purpose is to provide cash to the money market to get through the end of the year and perhaps beyond..."
Oh dear, I hate to break it to them but the end of the year is less than three weeks away. What then?
And it gets worse:
"The Bank of England, as part of the coordinated action of worldwide central banks, expanded the range of securities it will take as collateral against funds at three-month maturities. For the first time, it will accept bonds issued by sovereign nations rated Aa3/AA- or above; bonds by G10 government agencies guaranteed by national governments rated AAA; conventional AAA debt issued by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, the Federal National Mortgage Corporation and the Federal Home Loan Banking system; and AAA-related U.K., U.S. or European asset-backed securities backed by credit cards and U.K. or European residential mortgage-backed securities"
Great, so we're taking all the crap now. I'd love to know how that was decided. Sheesh.
Mike,
gosh that's a relief - good thing nobody is impacted by that silly old oil price!
sterl,
Is Angelol going long the pound now?
confused said: "I give up. I do not even want to believe I have an iota of understanding of the credit and capital markets.
Even IF the house prices do not fall from the current levels, access to HELOCs resulting from increasing housing prices is gone. By some estimates, HELOC funding accounted for about 2% of consumer spending last year. All things being equal, if 2% of 70% (consumer spending contribution to GDP) drops, will it not be enough to call it a recession? The stock markets are cheering away to life-time highs, as if we were living in the best of times...."
Things are considerably easier to understand if you step back and take a longer view, as day-to-day activity is almost entirely noise without any order to it. MSM news accounts (and often the blogs written as responses to them) typically just add to the confusion.
Your mention of HELOC-based spending drying-up as a result of no-longer increasing house prices is a great example of the simplistic, one-dimensional view being flogged right now.
What about people like me, of whom there are millions, who have considerable home equity that they've never touched, or only withdrawn sparingly? Even if the price that my home could fetch did fall, I'd still have a lot of equity I could pull out and spend if I wanted/needed to.
As to recessions, let me put your mind at ease.
At the end of a business cycle (just prior to recession), the economy is growing at an unsustainably-high pace that will result in high inflation. The Fed deliberately attempts to choke-off that growth with aggressive tightening.
Q: Does that "fit" with the current situation? Has the economy been growing at the upper limits of its capacity? Has the Fed been aggressively tightening in response to that condition?
Just because the media makes a big deal about an issue doesn't make it a big issue. Just because they give an idea a lot of airtime or column-inches doesn't make it true.
Sebastia
Maybe they should just accept everything as collateral, print everyone a pile of $100,000 Wienmarks, dollars, pesos, or whatevers, and call it a day since everyone will be rich. That's about the level of stupidity I see from the clowns running this show.
Good to see the Fed's actions have had an effect - import prices up 11% since last year, inflation up 2.7% this past month, oil prices heading back up, gold going up, etc. Yep, the Fed is doing SOMETHING, for sure!
The perils of asset economies and the games of musical chairs are in theathers everywhere in the Western Hemisphere. This spectacle has been rated AAA by our best rating agencies.
"Has the Fed been aggressively tightening in response to that condition?"
Sebastian | 12.12.07 - 12:00 pm
Why yes, they have.
Rate hikes started June 2004, continued up through June 2006, stayed flat for over a year until the FFR cut in September 2007.
I don't count the Discount Rate cut in August because the lower rate could still be considered "punitive".
In the Open Market Committee's statements, any rate cuts since 2006 have been attributed to the self-induced crisis of the U.S. commercial banking system and its threat to the economy, not to the usual economic weaknesses.
"Has the Fed been aggressively tightening in response to that condition?"
Sebastian | 12.12.07 - 12:00 pm
Why yes, it has, actually.
Regular rate hikes starting June 2006 through June 2006, stayed flat until the Fed Funds Rate cut in September 2007.
In Open Market Committee's statements, the rate cuts since Sept 2007 were due to the self-induced crisis in the U.S. commercial banking system, and not to the usual economic weaknesses.
Seb,
We missed you yesterday!
So the Fed having to create this new facility is bullish, and not the result of any big deal that the simple minded MSM and blogosphere is incomprehensibly lathered up about?
"The Bank of England, as part of the coordinated action of worldwide central banks, expanded the range of securities it will take as collateral against funds at three-month maturities. For the first time, it will accept bonds issued by sovereign nations rated Aa3/AA- or above; bonds by G10 government agencies guaranteed by national governments rated AAA; etc."
Witness the free fall of ratings over the last couple of months, basing a decision on them does not inspire confidence.
sebastian, "As to recessions, let me put your mind at ease.:)"
So, it's al just media hype? The consumer still has legs then, and we should assume growth will resume?
LOL! I'm still bracing for the soft landing, now characterized by MS as a mild recession.
We have an unstable economy, all predicated upon credit expansion, that shut down this year. I am expecting a US led recession that deepens considerably as the global slump, more pronounced in emerging markets, gets progressively worse. Nasty once the olympics are over in China.
psychodave said: "...Rate hikes started June 2004, continued up through June 2006, stayed flat for over a year until the FFR cut in September 2007."
Technically speaking, there were rate "hikes" beginning in June, 2004. However, those "hikes" weren't actually "tightening", but take-backs of the excess stimulus of extremely low rates from when the Fed was "fighting" the recession. This is what happens subsequent to every recession.
Understanding this difference (between letting up on the gas and slamming down on the brakes) is crucial to understanding where we are in the economic cycle, and the reason why there are going to be a lot of people (CR included) who are going to be surprised by what comes next for the economy, the stock market and the housing market. The bears are expecting dramatically-worse conditions just when things are getting ready to improve.
Sebastia
barely said: "So, it's all just media hype? The consumer still has legs then, and we should assume growth will resume?"
You tell me. If there's going to be a recession, is it going to be in the newspapers before the fact?
Are the President, the Fed, the money-center banks, the brokerage houses, the homebuilders, etc., even going to be mentioning it, much less forecasting it?
Sebastia
and the reason why there are going to be a lot of people (CR included) who are going to be surprised by what comes next for the economy
He was right on target with his housing forecast...