You should turn this into a year end contest- find the worst housing call of 2007 by someone who should have known better.
But I think the winner will have to be Bernake: "Our assessment at this point ... is that this looks to be a very orderly and moderate kind of cooling," Bernanke said. (ok, that was 2006, so I already violated my rules, but you get the point)
link: USATODAY.com - Bernanke: Housing market is headed for a soft landing
Whiff of panic.
I like that. I guess since the WSJ has now said it, Banker will of course decide to retreat once again into the Bankerdome;-}
Well, now. I sort of sit here with my wheels spinning rapidly inside my head trying to decide what course to take with my meager funds. Do I run down to the bank and get some Swiss Francs? Canadian Dollars? Do I run down to the local coin dealer and get a bag of silver pre64 junk? Do I just stick my money in a cd at the credit union?
What to do? As this get's wierder and wierder I am starting to get the feeling that the first to panic will survive and devil take the hindmost.
Dummmm Dummmm, the thudding of the helicopters is starting up in the moist and heavy air.
Ok- here is a April 2007 Bernanke quote:
Given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, Bernanke said.
Six months after saying the slowdown in U.S. housing sales was just about to be over,'' Lewis said today at an industry conference in New York that fourth-quarter profit will bequite disappointing'' and predicted a `challenging'' 2008 with higher writedowns for securities tied to the mortgage market.
Man, how come he gets what he wants for christmas and I don't!! Or maybe he won't either because we all know this is all contained to housing, nothing more.
Do I run down to the bank and get some Swiss Francs? Canadian Dollars?
AllenM
OTonOT - Norwegian kroner would have been good yesterday - the central bank just raised interest rates by .25% to 5.25% today. THEY have their head screwed on. Like Ms. Kuvaas, the mayor of Narvik said:
"Just because we live this far north people think we are stupid"
Well so much for Mr. Lewis' prescience - he should have been reading this blog or his bank's analyst group. But if he's just now coming to grips with a housing outlook that'll keep rippling another 2-4 years (or more?) he's just put another moose on the table (actually just the moose's, ahem, leave behinds) to with housing is not our only asset class that'll be subject to these little upsets. This seems to me like the mortgage related instruments are just part of a much large pond of structured debt. And there are a lot more boulders waiting to be pushed in.
For my musings, inexpert as they are, try this: http://tinyurl.com/2avnzp
Oh for stable time - hexx with this interesting stuff.
British authorities could have prevented the run on Northern Rock by having a formal system in place to protect depositors, the City's top watchdog, the Financial Services Authority (FSA), claimed today.
Callum McCarthy, the FSA's chairman, told MPs that a US-style scheme that guaranteed savers' funds could have helped to shore up confidence in the stricken mortgage lender and possibly called a halt to the first run on a bank in the UK for 141 years.
Speaking before the powerful Treasury Select Committee, Mr McCarthy said that formal depositor protection "undoubtedly could have been a real help in preventing the retail run".
We also think Bank of America will need to write down its subprime [collateralized debt obligation] exposure by at least another $2 billion in 2008 (even after a $3 billion subprime CDO write-down in the fourth quarter)," the analysts wrote.
Severely shaken investors Tuesday staged a heavy stocks sell-off while funneling large amounts of money into Treasurys. However, Wednesday's bold central bank plan was viewed by investors as a tacit admission by the Fed that small rate reductions would not be enough to bring back to life financial markets paralyzed by subprime fears
I told you, I told you I told you...no economy with the power to print money has ever failed to print more while trying to get itself of debt since Croesus added nickel to his silver coins.
Yes..housing going to take off again, but bread is going to cost $12.50 per loaf.
The crunch comes a few years down the road when inflation has raised the effective minimum wage to $50 per hour and part-time McDonald burger flippers can afford $500,000 houses...oops..now they're 3,000,000 houses..and guess what...the SIV's are saved, foreclosures gone, life is good.
God bless William Jennings Bryan and his Cross of Gold.
"Archstone-Smith (NYSE:ASN) today announced that it has signed a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by a partnership sponsored by Tishman Speyer and Lehman Brothers (including its Private Equitygroup), (the Partnership), in a transaction valued at approximately $22.2 billion, including the assumption and refinancing of Archstone-Smiths outstanding debt and excluding transaction costs.
The transaction is being financed by equity provided by Tishman Speyer with the balance of the debt and equity capital provided and arranged by Lehman Brothers Inc. and Bank of America."
As I understand it, these loans to Tishman-Speyer are still on the books, and they paid a sub-5% cap rate to acquire Archstone-Smith. Anyone think this one might go bad? Perhaps, but it appears that Macklowe and Maguire might go first.....
fnordst
You should turn this into a year end contest- find the worst housing call of 2007 by someone who should have known better.
But I think the winner will have to be Bernake: "Our assessment at this point ... is that this looks to be a very orderly and moderate kind of cooling," Bernanke said. (ok, that was 2006, so I already violated my rules, but you get the point)
link: USATODAY.com - Bernanke: Housing market is headed for a soft landing
Market no likey-like something in the past few minutes. Anyone know what it was? Bueller?
Whiff of panic.
I like that. I guess since the WSJ has now said it, Banker will of course decide to retreat once again into the Bankerdome;-}
Well, now. I sort of sit here with my wheels spinning rapidly inside my head trying to decide what course to take with my meager funds. Do I run down to the bank and get some Swiss Francs? Canadian Dollars? Do I run down to the local coin dealer and get a bag of silver pre64 junk? Do I just stick my money in a cd at the credit union?
What to do? As this get's wierder and wierder I am starting to get the feeling that the first to panic will survive and devil take the hindmost.
Dummmm Dummmm, the thudding of the helicopters is starting up in the moist and heavy air.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Ok- here is a April 2007 Bernanke quote:
Given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, Bernanke said.
link: Bernanke Believes Housing Mess Contained - Forbes.com
hmmm...I think I'm starting to see the fnords between the lines...
rt
Six months after saying the slowdown in U.S. housing sales was just about to be over,'' Lewis said today at an industry conference in New York that fourth-quarter profit will bequite disappointing'' and predicted a `challenging'' 2008 with higher writedowns for securities tied to the mortgage market.
Lewis pulled a Paulson!
"We need a deal to go bad"
Man, how come he gets what he wants for christmas and I don't!! Or maybe he won't either because we all know this is all contained to housing, nothing more.
Do I run down to the bank and get some Swiss Francs? Canadian Dollars?
AllenM
OTonOT - Norwegian kroner would have been good yesterday - the central bank just raised interest rates by .25% to 5.25% today. THEY have their head screwed on. Like Ms. Kuvaas, the mayor of Narvik said:
"Just because we live this far north people think we are stupid"
And they aren't.
-K
Well so much for Mr. Lewis' prescience - he should have been reading this blog or his bank's analyst group. But if he's just now coming to grips with a housing outlook that'll keep rippling another 2-4 years (or more?) he's just put another moose on the table (actually just the moose's, ahem, leave behinds) to with housing is not our only asset class that'll be subject to these little upsets. This seems to me like the mortgage related instruments are just part of a much large pond of structured debt. And there are a lot more boulders waiting to be pushed in.
For my musings, inexpert as they are, try this:
http://tinyurl.com/2avnzp
Oh for stable time - hexx with this interesting stuff.
"dummm dummmm the thudding of the helicopters is starting up in the moist and heavy air."
I love the smell of printers ink in the morning. It smells like victory.
Sweet! I've seen my first fnord of the holiday season.
Nice.
FDIC: Error 404 - Page Not Found
British authorities could have prevented the run on Northern Rock by having a formal system in place to protect depositors, the City's top watchdog, the Financial Services Authority (FSA), claimed today.
Callum McCarthy, the FSA's chairman, told MPs that a US-style scheme that guaranteed savers' funds could have helped to shore up confidence in the stricken mortgage lender and possibly called a halt to the first run on a bank in the UK for 141 years.
Speaking before the powerful Treasury Select Committee, Mr McCarthy said that formal depositor protection "undoubtedly could have been a real help in preventing the retail run".
When you open your mouth a lot, eventually you get certain things right.
We also think Bank of America will need to write down its subprime [collateralized debt obligation] exposure by at least another $2 billion in 2008 (even after a $3 billion subprime CDO write-down in the fourth quarter)," the analysts wrote.
"When you open your mouth a lot, eventually you get certain things right."
And sometimes people just quit listening.
Severely shaken investors Tuesday staged a heavy stocks sell-off while funneling large amounts of money into Treasurys. However, Wednesday's bold central bank plan was viewed by investors as a tacit admission by the Fed that small rate reductions would not be enough to bring back to life financial markets paralyzed by subprime fears
Doc, ya need to go back on your meds.
I told you, I told you I told you...no economy with the power to print money has ever failed to print more while trying to get itself of debt since Croesus added nickel to his silver coins.
Yes..housing going to take off again, but bread is going to cost $12.50 per loaf.
The crunch comes a few years down the road when inflation has raised the effective minimum wage to $50 per hour and part-time McDonald burger flippers can afford $500,000 houses...oops..now they're 3,000,000 houses..and guess what...the SIV's are saved, foreclosures gone, life is good.
God bless William Jennings Bryan and his Cross of Gold.
I am not worried. The FDIC has $51 billion to cover all of the nation's "insured" deposits plus Bair is in charge now.
"Archstone-Smith (NYSE:ASN) today announced that it has signed a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by a partnership sponsored by Tishman Speyer and Lehman Brothers (including its Private Equitygroup), (the Partnership), in a transaction valued at approximately $22.2 billion, including the assumption and refinancing of Archstone-Smiths outstanding debt and excluding transaction costs.
The transaction is being financed by equity provided by Tishman Speyer with the balance of the debt and equity capital provided and arranged by Lehman Brothers Inc. and Bank of America."
As I understand it, these loans to Tishman-Speyer are still on the books, and they paid a sub-5% cap rate to acquire Archstone-Smith. Anyone think this one might go bad? Perhaps, but it appears that Macklowe and Maguire might go first.....
Amazing! I thought this had ended with Enron.