But despite a slight slowdown in sales and rent increases, industrial real estate should remain strong next year, with continued low vacancies
Not surprising given the trend of the dollar. I assume 'industrial' in this context means unspecialized light industrial space, which is usually an empty box with a lot of power and a/c.
OC and IE ain't nothing compared to Florida, especially southwest, as CobraDriver can attest. There's so much vacant commercial RE in the Port Charlotte area (and to the north and south of it) you wouldn't believe it. Residential, of course, is a disaster. It looks like what I imagine Michigan and Ohio must look like right now. In terms of the chronology of this mess, I'd say OC is 1 year behind FL, and IE is maybe 6 months behind.
LA, I have no idea. Maybe it's just different there.
And, the O/T followup - so, who is going to shore up the collateral? Borrow money to repay losses from borrowed money?:
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The part of the Bank of England's balance sheet that would register any loans to distressed U.K. mortgage lender Northern Rock PLC ( NRK.LN) fell GBP1.16 billion in the week to Dec. 12, figures from the central bank indicated Thursday
And O/T folowup #2 (Interesting, in that he will not be personally accountable for any losses, now.):
Northern Rock PLC's chief executive will step down immediately rather than in February as planned, the troubled mortgage lender said Thursday.
A financial settlement with Adam Applegarth, who has been with the company for 24 years, will be "substantially less than the amount which he would otherwise have been due on termination," Northern Rock said.
In November, Northern Rock had said Applegarth would remain with the company for three months to oversee a strategic review
How can you foresee it when you can't yet see it? You know, it's so contained that you gotta look awfully hard, and as you know, we don't have the resources for that sort of undertaking.
The language used to describe these executive terminations is always the same (so civil):
Northern Rock PLC's chief executive will step down immediately
This one British in stating that his obscene compensation will be "less"...not troubling to state the exact figures...so UK.
I do get the visual that executive activity is described in detail by "stepping up" and "stepping down".
There will be no recessions, depressions, hyperinflations, or anything else. Everything will be perfect according to the Spin we'll be getting. Inflation is contained, the economy is "strong," and the stock market has reached a permanently high plateau.
My gut is telling me that Conway is underestimating the effect this will have on CRE vacancies. The F/C, REO and NOD rate in the IE close-in to L.A. is just apocalyptic and shows no signs of abating.
Take all of the SG Valley in the IE and just write it off. Bad. Very bad.
Somehow, this needs to be spun and repackaged as sub-prime.
Immediately.
Sub-prime is contained.
The containment is spreading.
But despite a slight slowdown in sales and rent increases, industrial real estate should remain strong next year, with continued low vacancies
Not surprising given the trend of the dollar. I assume 'industrial' in this context means unspecialized light industrial space, which is usually an empty box with a lot of power and a/c.
OC and IE ain't nothing compared to Florida, especially southwest, as CobraDriver can attest. There's so much vacant commercial RE in the Port Charlotte area (and to the north and south of it) you wouldn't believe it. Residential, of course, is a disaster. It looks like what I imagine Michigan and Ohio must look like right now. In terms of the chronology of this mess, I'd say OC is 1 year behind FL, and IE is maybe 6 months behind.
LA, I have no idea. Maybe it's just different there.
(Formerly Lee Helm)
O/T but worth noting:
UK bank writedowns £2bn in a week
US Edition - Financial News Online
Formerly Lee - How tacky.
And, the O/T followup - so, who is going to shore up the collateral? Borrow money to repay losses from borrowed money?:
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The part of the Bank of England's balance sheet that would register any loans to distressed U.K. mortgage lender Northern Rock PLC ( NRK.LN) fell GBP1.16 billion in the week to Dec. 12, figures from the central bank indicated Thursday
CNNMoney.com: 404 Page Not Found
And O/T folowup #2 (Interesting, in that he will not be personally accountable for any losses, now.):
Northern Rock PLC's chief executive will step down immediately rather than in February as planned, the troubled mortgage lender said Thursday.
A financial settlement with Adam Applegarth, who has been with the company for 24 years, will be "substantially less than the amount which he would otherwise have been due on termination," Northern Rock said.
In November, Northern Rock had said Applegarth would remain with the company for three months to oversee a strategic review
Northern Rock CEO Departs Early
No one could have foreseen this.
How can you foresee it when you can't yet see it? You know, it's so contained that you gotta look awfully hard, and as you know, we don't have the resources for that sort of undertaking.
The language used to describe these executive terminations is always the same (so civil):
Northern Rock PLC's chief executive will step down immediately
This one British in stating that his obscene compensation will be "less"...not troubling to state the exact figures...so UK.
I do get the visual that executive activity is described in detail by "stepping up" and "stepping down".
There's just too many people not expecting a recession next year, for there not to be a recession next year.
Formerly Lee - How tacky.
I agree. It is a bit of a reach
That's what you get in boom times
"office vacancies high" in one paragraph followed by "continued low vacancies" in the next paragraph. Stellar reportage.
There will be no recessions, depressions, hyperinflations, or anything else. Everything will be perfect according to the Spin we'll be getting. Inflation is contained, the economy is "strong," and the stock market has reached a permanently high plateau.
My gut is telling me that Conway is underestimating the effect this will have on CRE vacancies. The F/C, REO and NOD rate in the IE close-in to L.A. is just apocalyptic and shows no signs of abating.
Take all of the SG Valley in the IE and just write it off. Bad. Very bad.
If the Casden Forecast does not expect a Recession. Then it will be an awfull surprise for them.
They did not see the downturn in So. CA Housing in 2005 either.
Are the driving down the road looking backwards, just not seeing what is ahead?