If they took credit cards away from xmas shoppers like they took away mortgage financing. . .
Right now its a free fall on prices until some stable financing returns. No money, no buyers, the buyers who can know there's nobody behind them to buy when they sell. Complete consumer confidence screw up. An if nothing gets fixed, the write offs won't stop.
Kramer just did a great interview re: the PHeD academics.
Can we get a call in to the Bankerdome? I want to check if Banker thinks this is a "nothingburger". I can't seem to get a good nothingburger these days.
Banker is no longer emerging from the Bankerdome. I suspect he took a look at what was in his wallet;-}
So, how do we reliquify this mess?
Bueller?
Anybody?
I thought so. Ah well, get ready, get set, reflate with mucho dollars.
Or give me 50% discount on my '05 and '07 vintage mortgages commensurate with the current market value!!!
The race to BK will be on when the credit card shoe drops- that is the end for the average american, and they should not touch that retirement account.
I predict you will eventually see the "Homeowners Equity Loan Initiative" from the government. In order to reduce the unfair hardship visited on homeowners by the drop in their equity, the government program will provide long-term low/no interest loans against the equity they used to have, until they can get on their feet again (read, inflation can get everybody rightside up). HELI (maybe they'll call it a Program instead of an Initiative) will be immensely popular. The only question is whether they wait too long to put it into place.
Well, Merril had $15.8bn of CDO exposure at 9/30/07. Goldman Sachs forecasted a $6bn writedown. So, if it's another $4-$6 bn, Merrill will be down to about $4-$6bn. It can't go below zero. And I assume by now, with a GS trained CEO at the helm, they are now working to be flat or short on this sector.
The capital hole will soon be filled by a wealthy non-US investor.
Gee, so the extra-conservative writedowns last quarter (about a week after the last ones) weren't actually that conservative?
I wouldn't be surprised if mom wrote down even more just to ensure they won't have to come back a fourth time to the confessional. "Go and sin no more" isn't supposed to be an empty phrase.
The only thing that would REALLY surprise me would be if Charlie pumped out a higher volume of sweat on air.
If I recall correctly (and I don't mean to put words in anyone's mouth) Banker stated that if this credit crisis did not resolve within a month or two, we would see severe problems in the economy as a whole.
And that was back in August.
Is my memory correct? I don't see Banker post very often, is he still standing by that assessment? Have we passed the point of no return on starting a recession (whether we are in one now or not?
Pretty soon instead of erecting barriers to Chinese, and Singaporean, and Gulf emirate investments, we will be begging them to come and pay us something, anything, to haul away our garbage.
"Analyst predicts another $4-5bn write down at Merrill."
Presumably, this is in addition to the $7.9bn announced in Nov, 2006. That puts it to a maximum of 12.9bn. Which is close to the $15.8bn of CDO exposure. Of course what asset is being written down, it so fare speculation.
Also, Citigroup today also announced it may have to write off another $8bn to $11bn in mortgage-backed securities. This is in addition to the $11bn write off announced in Nov.
That would bring it a maximum of $22Bn.
A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money.
Is anyone keeping track of all this. Maybe an Asset-implode-o-meter? Or a loss-o-meter?
The pace at which these losses are mounting worries me.
At what point do people start saying, "We can't afford to lose all these companies. To save our economy we have to go ahead and let the Fed start monetizing bad loans at close to par value."
If that ever happens, we will have reached the point where "printing money" is considered an acceptable method for promoting economic growth.
It's worth noting that we went crazy insane out of control with the last such tool -- the Federal Reserve kept lowering interest rates to "promote economic growth" until we've basically bankrupted oursevles by convincing consumers to not only exchange their real wealth for fanatasy bubble wealth, but to aggressively borrow money and exchange their future real wealth for today's latest and greatest wealth illusion.
Now if the Fed couldn't control itself with the interest rates...
OT- but sobering
Airbus CEO: Credit Crisis Complicates Planned Plant Sale
Dow Jones 12/14/2007
Author: David Pearson
TOULOUSE, France (Dow Jones)--European jet maker Airbus' Chief Executive Thomas Enders said Friday that the global financial crisis has complicated the company's divestiture plan.
Enders said two factors are complicating negotiations with potential buyers for up to seven facilities in France, Germany and the U.K.: the "dramatic" weakening of the U.S. dollar since Airbus made its decision to sell the facilities at the start of the year, and the fact that financing has become more difficult due to the subprime credit crisis.
"Money has become less available than it has been. These are factors that are complicating the process," Enders said during a press conference.
"We're in the final stages. We're working as hard as possible to bring (the negotiations) to a conclusion as soon as possible," Enders said.
Enders was speaking as Airbus delivered its 5,000th aircraft, to Australia's Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN.AU) at its Toulouse plant, in southern France.
Airbus is a unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. NV (5730.FR).
A hard-charging John Thain is shrinking bonuses at Merrill Lynch (MER - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) as the new chief executive tries to repair what the departed CEO Stanley O'Neal set asunder.
CNBC reports that bonuses at the firm will probably be significantly slashed in order to manage the billions in projected losses resulting from bad bets on mortgage securities.
Merrill Lynch selects Jacksonville for 800 new jobs, mostly from the Northeast, with an average salary of $67,000 and invests $25 million total Jacksonville employment grows to 2,700...
2005
Merrill Lynch expands its Jacksonville center with 800 new jobs and $25 million total Jacksonville employment grows to 2,500
...
2004
Merrill Lynch Credit Corporation adds 150 jobs in Jacksonville
FINANCIAL FLORIDA
One Tampa City Center Suite 2760 Tampa, FL 33602-5816
813-228-0652 info@financialflorida.com"
just read that consumer spending staying up because people are going into their 401k accounts. Record number of hardship withdrawals occuring.
Look out beloooow.....__
Oh, again I have to say this: inflating away the problem won't work unless we see wage inflation, and wage inflation is the one type of inflation that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent. So, I don't think that'll work, unless they let it all go Weimar, in which case we're all hosed.
1st !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And when do we start to see the 13th floor diving begin?
I hate when that happens.
the line at the confessional really starts growing around this time of week
Tulsa Time,
Might be a good idea to look up before walking under a tall bank building.
If they took credit cards away from xmas shoppers like they took away mortgage financing. . .
Right now its a free fall on prices until some stable financing returns. No money, no buyers, the buyers who can know there's nobody behind them to buy when they sell. Complete consumer confidence screw up. An if nothing gets fixed, the write offs won't stop.
Kramer just did a great interview re: the PHeD academics.
Can we get a call in to the Bankerdome? I want to check if Banker thinks this is a "nothingburger". I can't seem to get a good nothingburger these days.
$6 billion? That's only $1 per person in the blast zone.
So when do we get the FSOA (fire sale of assets)? I'll tell you when, when hell freezes over, that's when.
Note: Apologies to the Mogambo for stealing his style.
Banker is no longer emerging from the Bankerdome. I suspect he took a look at what was in his wallet;-}
So, how do we reliquify this mess?
Bueller?
Anybody?
I thought so. Ah well, get ready, get set, reflate with mucho dollars.
Or give me 50% discount on my '05 and '07 vintage mortgages commensurate with the current market value!!!
The race to BK will be on when the credit card shoe drops- that is the end for the average american, and they should not touch that retirement account.
Someday this war's gonna end...
AllenM -
I predict you will eventually see the "Homeowners Equity Loan Initiative" from the government. In order to reduce the unfair hardship visited on homeowners by the drop in their equity, the government program will provide long-term low/no interest loans against the equity they used to have, until they can get on their feet again (read, inflation can get everybody rightside up). HELI (maybe they'll call it a Program instead of an Initiative) will be immensely popular. The only question is whether they wait too long to put it into place.
Well, Merril had $15.8bn of CDO exposure at 9/30/07. Goldman Sachs forecasted a $6bn writedown. So, if it's another $4-$6 bn, Merrill will be down to about $4-$6bn. It can't go below zero. And I assume by now, with a GS trained CEO at the helm, they are now working to be flat or short on this sector.
The capital hole will soon be filled by a wealthy non-US investor.
The trade is to buy.
Gee, so the extra-conservative writedowns last quarter (about a week after the last ones) weren't actually that conservative?
I wouldn't be surprised if mom wrote down even more just to ensure they won't have to come back a fourth time to the confessional. "Go and sin no more" isn't supposed to be an empty phrase.
The only thing that would REALLY surprise me would be if Charlie pumped out a higher volume of sweat on air.
interested -
Huge holiday sale on falling knives. Buy up.
maybe these writedowns should start having a "Category" attached to them, and maybe even be named for posterity's sake, like:
Costliest U.S. Hurricanes : Weather Underground
.
This article mentions the writedowns:
Merrill Employees Facing Cutbacks in Bonuses - CNBC
If I recall correctly (and I don't mean to put words in anyone's mouth) Banker stated that if this credit crisis did not resolve within a month or two, we would see severe problems in the economy as a whole.
And that was back in August.
Is my memory correct? I don't see Banker post very often, is he still standing by that assessment? Have we passed the point of no return on starting a recession (whether we are in one now or not?
I think we have.
Pretty soon instead of erecting barriers to Chinese, and Singaporean, and Gulf emirate investments, we will be begging them to come and pay us something, anything, to haul away our garbage.
US Edition - Financial News Online
"Analyst predicts another $4-5bn write down at Merrill."
Presumably, this is in addition to the $7.9bn announced in Nov, 2006. That puts it to a maximum of 12.9bn. Which is close to the $15.8bn of CDO exposure. Of course what asset is being written down, it so fare speculation.
Also, Citigroup today also announced it may have to write off another $8bn to $11bn in mortgage-backed securities. This is in addition to the $11bn write off announced in Nov.
That would bring it a maximum of $22Bn.
A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money.
Is anyone keeping track of all this. Maybe an Asset-implode-o-meter? Or a loss-o-meter?
The pace at which these losses are mounting worries me.
At what point do people start saying, "We can't afford to lose all these companies. To save our economy we have to go ahead and let the Fed start monetizing bad loans at close to par value."
If that ever happens, we will have reached the point where "printing money" is considered an acceptable method for promoting economic growth.
It's worth noting that we went crazy insane out of control with the last such tool -- the Federal Reserve kept lowering interest rates to "promote economic growth" until we've basically bankrupted oursevles by convincing consumers to not only exchange their real wealth for fanatasy bubble wealth, but to aggressively borrow money and exchange their future real wealth for today's latest and greatest wealth illusion.
Now if the Fed couldn't control itself with the interest rates...
ac, stop Weimaring.
The answer to that is: Not for quite a while.
But someday.
As for this current fiasco. Well, I note that nobody seemed to draw the conclusions from SCA and ACA about who should be bringing out the dead.
Amazing that AGO would hop aboard the bus sailing off of the cliff- doesn't anyone beyond Krugman read CR?
Expired
Frickin' Idjits.
More things to short- or are they counting on BB to bail them out too?
Mervyn is going to let them swing for stuff like this.
Someday this war's gonna end...
OT- but sobering
Airbus CEO: Credit Crisis Complicates Planned Plant Sale
Dow Jones 12/14/2007
Author: David Pearson
TOULOUSE, France (Dow Jones)--European jet maker Airbus' Chief Executive Thomas Enders said Friday that the global financial crisis has complicated the company's divestiture plan.
Enders said two factors are complicating negotiations with potential buyers for up to seven facilities in France, Germany and the U.K.: the "dramatic" weakening of the U.S. dollar since Airbus made its decision to sell the facilities at the start of the year, and the fact that financing has become more difficult due to the subprime credit crisis.
"Money has become less available than it has been. These are factors that are complicating the process," Enders said during a press conference.
"We're in the final stages. We're working as hard as possible to bring (the negotiations) to a conclusion as soon as possible," Enders said.
Enders was speaking as Airbus delivered its 5,000th aircraft, to Australia's Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN.AU) at its Toulouse plant, in southern France.
Airbus is a unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. NV (5730.FR).
Company Web site: Airbus - Welcome to Airbus.com!
umm....did we miss a sign of the apocalypse?
A hard-charging John Thain is shrinking bonuses at Merrill Lynch (MER - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) as the new chief executive tries to repair what the departed CEO Stanley O'Neal set asunder.
CNBC reports that bonuses at the firm will probably be significantly slashed in order to manage the billions in projected losses resulting from bad bets on mortgage securities.
Now this is getting serious.
The heck with the bonuses. What about the jobs?
"RECENT FINANCIAL SERVICES RELOCATIONS & EXPANSIONS
2006...
Merrill Lynch selects Jacksonville for 800 new jobs, mostly from the Northeast, with an average salary of $67,000 and invests $25 million total Jacksonville employment grows to 2,700...
2005
Merrill Lynch expands its Jacksonville center with 800 new jobs and $25 million total Jacksonville employment grows to 2,500
...
2004
Merrill Lynch Credit Corporation adds 150 jobs in Jacksonville
FINANCIAL FLORIDA
One Tampa City Center Suite 2760 Tampa, FL 33602-5816
813-228-0652 info@financialflorida.com"
just read that consumer spending staying up because people are going into their 401k accounts. Record number of hardship withdrawals occuring.
Look out beloooow.....__
"Nobody could have predicted this."
Oh, again I have to say this: inflating away the problem won't work unless we see wage inflation, and wage inflation is the one type of inflation that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent. So, I don't think that'll work, unless they let it all go Weimar, in which case we're all hosed.