When will the madness end? The SoCal housing market looks like a perpetual motion machine at this point, even as the Las Vegas and Boston (maybe others?) bubblettes are starting to deflate.
Maybe Didier Sornette is right... not before summer of 2006.
The local paper just had an article on the staggering rise of local home prices.
Median prices have skyrocketed from $245,000 to $330,000 since February. That's an astonishing 38.8% increase in FIVE MONTHS.
Where is this money coming from? Wages in Kern County aren't nearly so high to be supporting this kind of insane housing inflation. But obviously demand is still red hot. Is it because housing demand is more inelastic than commonly believed, or is it the work of speculators?
While the totals and averages look good, the real interesting story is in San Diego. Not sure how much of this is influenced by condo sales, but this is the same pattern they talk about in the Boston area - lower year over year sales, and declining year over year appreciation solidly in the single digits.
I couldn't care less. We sold in in the last 8 months for +20% to high mkt (>$600/'), put the $ in f mny mkt. (4.14 yield) & are living rent free (net all taxes). Plus, we have a pool & Pool & gardener services are included. We no longer think about prop. tax, we set aside no $ for maint. & we now own our weekends. While I empathise with those young new graduate Turks who've been left unable to buy, truth is, I believe in 5 (or maybe 10) years they'll have great choices @ reasonable prices. It's all about economics, & sanity.
CR - I have heard it put so many ways I can't tell you which one is gospel. The way I put it is how I've always heard it put. But 'yes' that is the guy.
I think this quote is like Dirksen's Law* in that it has passed into folk lore and in a few years it will become like Murphy's Law that no one will even know who Stein was, if he ever really said it or what he actually said... and if he every really lived.
The past becomes as unknowable as the future.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
*A billion here and a billion there, and soon you are talking about real money...
When will the madness end? The SoCal housing market looks like a perpetual motion machine at this point, even as the Las Vegas and Boston (maybe others?) bubblettes are starting to deflate.
Maybe Didier Sornette is right... not before summer of 2006.
It will go on as long as there is money to fund it.
But that is a function of the mood of the investor and who knows when panic will set in.
I'm from Bakersfield, California in Kern County.
The local paper just had an article on the staggering rise of local home prices.
Median prices have skyrocketed from $245,000 to $330,000 since February. That's an astonishing 38.8% increase in FIVE MONTHS.
Where is this money coming from? Wages in Kern County aren't nearly so high to be supporting this kind of insane housing inflation. But obviously demand is still red hot. Is it because housing demand is more inelastic than commonly believed, or is it the work of speculators?
Excuse me, my brain malfunctioned.
34.7% increase in five months. Needless to say, that is still a rediculous figure. I imagine it's in the realm of 45-50% for the year.
Here are some charts to go with the numbers.
While the totals and averages look good, the real interesting story is in San Diego. Not sure how much of this is influenced by condo sales, but this is the same pattern they talk about in the Boston area - lower year over year sales, and declining year over year appreciation solidly in the single digits.
Just keep repeating Stern's Law...
"Those things that can't last forever, don't."
Just wanted to thank you for sending me information on your blog site. I have linked to your blog.
dry fly, isn't it "Stein's Law"?
"If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." Economist Herb Stein
BTW, Herb Stein was Ben Stein's father. The elder Stein (1916-1999) was a well known and respected economist.
Best Regards!
Calculated, do visit Kentroversy's site. He is pretty good. I steered him here.
I couldn't care less. We sold in in the last 8 months for +20% to high mkt (>$600/'), put the $ in f mny mkt. (4.14 yield) & are living rent free (net all taxes). Plus, we have a pool & Pool & gardener services are included. We no longer think about prop. tax, we set aside no $ for maint. & we now own our weekends. While I empathise with those young new graduate Turks who've been left unable to buy, truth is, I believe in 5 (or maybe 10) years they'll have great choices @ reasonable prices. It's all about economics, & sanity.
CR - I have heard it put so many ways I can't tell you which one is gospel. The way I put it is how I've always heard it put. But 'yes' that is the guy.
I think this quote is like Dirksen's Law* in that it has passed into folk lore and in a few years it will become like Murphy's Law that no one will even know who Stein was, if he ever really said it or what he actually said... and if he every really lived.
The past becomes as unknowable as the future.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
*A billion here and a billion there, and soon you are talking about real money...