Sounds like WAMU was having a tough time finding large enough OA's to finance. Glad they found a solution. Hope they were extra carefull in their underwriting on loans to purchase inflated assets.
Homeowners associations countywide are hit by foreclosure fallout and feeling the pinch of ...
By Lori Weisberg
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
November 1, 2007
San Diego County's mushrooming number of foreclosures is starting to hobble homeowners associations large and small as cash-strapped owners cease paying their monthly dues.
Can we revisit the discussion on OA mortgages at WaMu based on this?
I knew this was going to happen when WaMu fired its internal appraisers in 2006. Needless to say, I thought it was an exercise in plausible deniability.
I was biting my tongue yesterday wanting to post on that WaMu thread. Their problem is less the OAs than the inflated appraisals.
I heard about the change to outsourcing appraisals from an appraiser on Piggington's last year. And I knew immediately. Who in their right mind does this in that environment?
Well, I'm glad that WaMu decided to keep all of these "high quality" loans on their own books, rather than package and resell them....that might be unethical.
I think US is about to experience hyperinflation via proxy, unique type of situation. Dollar is now actually world pricing currency but nobody wants more dollars. Reserve status is going down to the toilet...
Most foreign producers/countries etc etc have up to their ears vast quantities of dollars and new ones are not wanted or welcomed.
So they continue quoting prices in dollars but demand payments via other currencies or gold/silver etc etc.
They do not really give a shit about the dollar price but they give a damn about the ratio between their own currency and dollar.
That quoting mechanism and saturated dollar market could easily lead to hyperinflation via exported commodities and raw materials inside the US. Even if FED does not print one single new dollar or tries to expand M3 in any other way!
Looks like we have finally found some scapegoats for the RE bust in a similar way as we did for the Nasdaq bust 2002. We can expect to get some high-profile courtroom shows and probably "guilty" sentences. Criminal behavior should be punished, also to deter future fraud cases. Then we'll be fine until the next RE boom.
Like I've been saying for over a year now, this is going to be a bonanza for lawyers.
Spitzer as NYAG was like a one man lawyer full employment act, and Cuomo looks to be filling those shoes now.
But before all the lawyer-haters start chirping: if the Federal government were not actively neglecting regulatory oversight for the past 7 years, we wouldn't be dealing with this.
The problem begins with an administration that sabotaged the public good for private gains. Chickens, meet roost.
Well, I guess they didn't want to make any questionable loans: "Let's make sure this sucker stinks."
Or maybe: "If we speed up we'll make it through that iceberg easily, Captain!"
CR,
First American is primarily a title insurance company, which is expanding into other services. If a WaMu exec actually said "if the appraisal issues are resolved and things are working well he would welcome conversations about expanding our relationship he meant that they had lots of ways of rewarding their lack of professional conscience. I can think of at least one federal law that might be violated thereby.
Mark
Looks like Cuomo is setting himself up to be the next GOTSONY after Spitzer gets plucked away to be USAG...
And if Spitzer's eyes are bigger and see's the AG job as a dead end, maybe a highly visible suit like this propels Mr. Cuomo to DOJ?
Assuming of course a prominent NY Dem becomes the next pres. I'm not ready to assume that is a 100% done deal but given the hypothetical it appears Mr. Cuomo's timing is pretty damn good.
It's obvious that the reason EA/FAF is the only named party in the suit is that WAMU wasn't stupid enough to admit to wrongdoing in it's own damn internal emails!! The AG probably can't build enough evidence that WAMU officials forced the inflated values then used those values illegally.
What a joke. I hope there's jail time for some of these yahoos...
Re: Ford sales numbers
Like the housing industry, the auto industry front loaded sales over the last 4 years and are paying heavy for it today and going forward. I talk to dealer owners everyday. They are hurting. Their saving grace is service. Service margin carries 90-100% of store expenses. You will see domestic stores reduced dramatically over course of 2-3 years. Chrysler 4500 dealers-Toyota 1900 dealers.
They opened to many franchises within one market area thus pushing sales down per store. Dealerships need sales to convert to service. More money made there than sale of vehicle.
Auto industy will take along time to recover. This will only enhance recession and home devaluation thru the next 2 years. Ford tech can earn 100K but based on hours sold in service. Serious trouble for all manufacturers including imports. Sales to service conversion is dropping without new customers backfilling service pipeline.
All the people I talk to in the industry are scared!
Housing and Auto business took todays sales away when they gave away credit at low rates. Last 5 years were greatest auto boom of all time. Look out below!!!!!!!!!!
Here is what will happen: there are criminal charges. They are likely investigating others, as in the insurance investigations under Spitzer.
Then, the class-action lawsuits will be filed against these parties, and similarly situated firms, alleging wrongdoing. The discovery alone will be mind boggling.
It's obvious that the reason EA/FAF is the only named party in the suit is that WAMU wasn't stupid enough to admit to wrongdoing in it's own damn internal emails!! The AG probably can't build enough evidence that WAMU officials forced the inflated values then used those values illegally.
The could also be leaning on the appraisers to turn states evidence against WaMu. I would but then I'm not a lawyer, don't even play one on TV though I think I could... Hey you folks over at Law-n-Order, call me... lets do lunch some day. Chao.
The could also be leaning on the appraisers to turn states evidence against WaMu.
For sure. By late 2006, there was no reason for WaMu to want inflated appraisals unless they needed to mask LTV losses. My guess: there are probably a dozen execs at WaMu lining up to give evidence in exchange for immunity.
Howls of derisive laughter. Now how many bagholders are going to sue WAMU for the full value of their now degraded cmo conduits that were stuffed with this pork?
I can hardly wait- the lawyers are truly going to feast on the mortgage industry- and it couldn't happen to nicer folks- including someone currently masquerading as a US ambassador. Club Fed in Nevada is going to fill up fast as the eternal damnation of cyberspace just doesn't seem to respond to a shredder like good ol' fashioned paper.
RTC is a' coming, and banker doesn't believe it! We sure forgot the reasons why the mortgage and financial industry used to be heavily regulated, now we get to pay again through the nose to fix what we broke.
Mozilo is a crook and I doubt that he will go to jail. Another toxic financial waste site is Citi Group put together by the biggest crooks of them all, Sanford Weill, comfortably retired. Free market has never been so free!
Jas
PS: Sold all the remaining Jan08 puts on C (toxic financial waste site) and still holding tons of Jan09 and Jan10 puts on Fraudentials and some recent tech high-fliers.
All the people I talk to in the industry are scared!
I just got word of a mfg company in Chicago - completely 'world class state of the art' - that closed recently. I worked with them about a decade ago and they told me to pound sand... they were 100% automotive and I don't do a lot of automotive... some but not 'too much'. Not enough for them it appears.
Anyway they wanted automotive or nothing - this was when gas was way below $2... close to $1... and everyone was buying the biggest earthmover SUV they could. Life was good if you walked the earth then (imagine a dinosaur pulling up next to you).
Anyway - guess what - I'm getting calls from those same kinda 'automotive supply chain addicts' asking if maybe I could help them find business that isn't like totally automotive.
I think they are too late. They had to be making that move & 're-structuring' appropriately a couple years ago at the latest.
There will be more failures & more angst in this sector.
At another company, capital markets would call down to prop valuation and overide the appraised values in the system with values the traders set, just to make their deals go more smoothly. Now, they are losing billions. So sad.
Can we revisit the discussion on OA mortgages at WaMu based on this?
I knew this was going to happen when WaMu fired its internal appraisers in 2006. Needless to say, I thought it was an exercise in plausible deniability.
I was biting my tongue yesterday wanting to post on that WaMu thread. Their problem is less the OAs than the inflated appraisals.
So . . . WaMu just started getting hinky appraisals in April 2006? That I doubt.
Either WaMu's internally-generated appraisals on the pre-April 2006 OAs are just as wretched as the ones it got from EA, in which case they just got cheaper (because outsouced) bad appraisals, or WaMu's internally-generated appraisals were better than EAs, in which case those loans with the biggest neg am balances (the oldest ones) had the best appraisals.
It's obvious that the reason EA/FAF is the only named party in the suit is that WAMU wasn't stupid enough to admit to wrongdoing in it's own damn internal emails!!
It won't take a rocket scientist to prove why WaMu wanted inflated values. Now that the indictments have begun, the rats will be crushing each other trying to jump ship.
On thing Enron taught us: it only pays to break the law if you're the first one to get a deal. All these WaMu department heads and VPs will be eying each other with suspicion when they pass in the halls. You better believe the smarter of these guys saved all the memos, presentations, and emails for a rainy day.
Either WaMu's internally-generated appraisals on the pre-April 2006 OAs are just as wretched as the ones it got from EA, in which case they just got cheaper (because outsouced) bad appraisals, or WaMu's internally-generated appraisals were better than EAs, in which case those loans with the biggest neg am balances (the oldest ones) had the best appraisals.
Yep, your OA post is still valid. Drumming up bogus numbers is a separate issue.
You know, my post yesterday wasn't really an attempt to defend WaMu's lending practices or OAs.
The fact is, if there is cold hard evidence that WaMu was shopping for inflated appraisals in 2006-2007, then there's excellent reason for the regulators to force them to go back through all 262,000 loans and "classify" the ones with bogus appraisals. That will force reserves up, because, as I argued yesterday, you do have to reserve more for "classified" loans.
But, as MOM says, if there's "deniability" regarding the pre-April 2006 appraisals, then this doesn't affect them.
Jas, I'm really surprised a guy who walks away from csco is playing the puts, when you should be liquid enough to be short outright and not have to worry about time premium and such.
OT, following up on the Jimmy Cayne story from last night we have this from Minyanville:
"Minyanville has compiled the following list of handy Bear Stearns pot-laced quips for your usage. Use them on your friends at Bear. Or just cut and past them into IM if it's easier.
Bear Stearns Announces Stock Spliff!
Cayne to Leave Bear Stearns After End of Quarter... Bag
Bear Stearns' Cayne Says Credit Markets Returning to NORML
Dude, Where's My CEO?
Thai Skunk Downgraded at Bear Stearns; Master Kush KC33 Raised to Strong Buy
Bear Stearns Quarterly Yield Now 28 Bong Hits
Analysts Dazed and Confused by Bear Stearns Quarter
Bear Stearns' Cayne Pitches One Hitter, Says Will Now "Only Smoke On Weekends"
Report: Bear's Cayne Feels Like Everybody in Board Room Looking at Him
Bear Stearns Announces Half Baked Plan to Exit Subprime Mortgage Business"
Did you ever think you'd see the day when banks were anxious to make bad loans, and working hard to do it?
Well, anybody with a couple of years or more in banking has seen some unspeakable loans get made.
The crashing irony of the thing is that in the bad old days, banks generally made bad loans locally. It was always some local developer who was best buddies with the VP of Deposit Ops, or some local builder who was deeply indebted to the bank on construction loans, so making the terrible take-out loans for the homebuyers was an exercise in moving bad debt from the commercial side to the residential RE side. Stuff like that.
Wide-scale intentional origination of trashy loans for one's own investment portfolio, without even the excuse of local politics and insider self-dealing? Beggars the imagination, doesn't it? Especially if you assume that WaMu securitized the best of the lot.
No way, I refuse to believe anything like this was happening.
Greenspan told us that house prices were rising because of immigration. And, big ben said there is no housing bubble and the rest of the world was saving too much making housing more valuable.
Can these two titans of finance and integrity possibly be wrong? or just pulling %^%# out of there asses to lull bulls? I think not.
The only lesson that most companies learned from Spitzer's Wall St. investigations was to DELETE ALL EMAILS (and save the damning conversations for the office watercooler or the local brothel; not for something that could potentially be saved)
It's sad to see that these guys didn't even learn that lesson...
Do you expect going forward more pressure on appraisers to "deflate" values or at least be more defensive than they are now? - Or is it all a matter of what gets accepted by investors at securitization (where we already see reduced risk appetite)?
Jas still has a fear (well justified in my mind) that the market will not reflect reality any time soon. The biggest lesson of the tech crash was that things take longer than you can believe, and that margin calls hurt when stuff barrels still higher before hurtling off a cliff. Check out CROX for a beauty of an example.
I still have the attitude that we will be printing at warp speed soon to keep the leaky boat afloat. BB proved that once again yesterday- Heonig has started worrying about the dollar, so we are probably done with drops unless some really big fish float to the surface and begin to stink. I note that nobody over $10 billion has gone under yet;-}
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- A U.S. magistrate on Friday rejected arguments by the Bush administration and urged a federal judge to order the White House to preserve copies of all its e-mails.
U.S. Magistrate Judge John M. Facciola said it is necessary to hold out the threat of a contempt-of-court citation to ensure that White House personnel safeguard backup tapes of electronic messages that may have been deleted.
Whether to issue the order is up to U.S. District Judge Henry Kennedy.
The Bush administration has 10 days to say why Kennedy should not order preservation of electronic communications by White House officials and aides.
Kennedy had referred the issue to the magistrate for a recommendation.
Facciola's report to the judge stems from a controversy dating back nearly two years over missing White House e-mails.
..."
I just got off the phone with an Appraiser friend after giving him the Link to this article.He HATES E-Appraise it with a passion,and hasn't had a job from WAMU since late 2005.Like a lot of honest Appraisers,he has been struggling because you don't get the Biz if you won't hit the number.I expect he might be picking up some Appraisal reviews soon...I wonder If the folks at First american were trying to upstage Bush,admitting to 262,000 felonies is up there with the FISA violations...
Do you expect going forward more pressure on appraisers to "deflate" values or at least be more defensive than they are now?
These suckers are in a real hard place... because they not only have to worry about pressure to inflate assessments... they have boomers inheriting property from the 'greatest generation' and pressuring for deflated assessments... so as to minimize estate taxes (state if not federal).
We are trying to gift some land to the state (for conservation) and getting an appraisal has been like pulling teeth. Because its an estate gift the appraisal firms are scared s-less... fearing they too will be drawn into a state-estate tax contest.
They are completely gun shy... Must have thought this would be a low stress way to make a big bucks. Ain't no such thing - if there is big money in something, stress will find it.
"I remember when they said hybrids wouldn't make sense unless gas was $3.00 a gallon. Hmmm."
In some ways they still may not make sense at that price, and I say that as a hybrid owner. The high-mileage hybrids: what they don't say is that you have to drive them very conservatively to get that great mileage. If you drive them like a typical gas-pump-stompin' Amurrican, the differential decreases. How many are willing to do that, even at $3/gallon?
Of course if gas goes to $6/gallon everyone will want one and they'll happily drive their hybrids as if they were 80-year-old grannies. For me, a hybrid is just an insurance policy against high prices, rationing, or worse.
Do you expect going forward more pressure on appraisers to "deflate" values or at least be more defensive than they are now?
Short answer, no. It's not that direct.
What happens first (and is already happening) is that maximum LTVs come down. You say to yourself, well shit, if all these appraisals are garbage, then I'm not going to lend more than 90% of value instead of 100% of value. That works out for a few days or so, until you find evidence that appraisals are still being inflated to hit the 90% number. So you contract further. Lather, rinse, repeat.
This goes on until you have a full-blown credit crunch, massive floods of REO, and therefore sales prices "reset" to sane by fire sales. Now the appraisers have a bunch of new numbers (closed sales) to work with. Eventually, everybody starts upping LTVs incrementally again, appraised values start creeping back up, and in a decade or so we go through the whole freaking mess again.
Nothing will change until appraisal due diligence/review practices change, along with industry commission structures, as far as I'm concerned. Until you cut the spiff you pay the mortgage salespeople and spend it on appraisal review, you're stuck in the dynamic forever.
And when a "reputable" national bank like WaMu can get away with outsourcing its appraisal function to some outfit like EA, we are not in the cultural environment in which you can expect voluntary upping of appraisal review expenses. Of course, it does sound like WaMu just gave OTS a major stick to beat it with . . .
As dryfly notes, consumers have to want honest appraisals, too. Until we can convince people that inflated appraisals are not helping them any, there's not much political will for forcing this situation to change.
At the old vehicle prices and compared to the then available competition for those hybrids that were subsidized by the manufacturers $3 gas made sense. Things change. With increases in conventional vehicle mpg and reduced subsidy it is now closer to $4 gas where hybrids make TCO sense. With more hybrids and a body of knowledge the cost to mfg is coming down which helps but perversely the demand curve shift makes it possible to pick up a gas guzzler cheap and thus negate any fuel economy advantage.
Of course if gas goes to $6/gallon everyone will want one and they'll happily drive their hybrids as if they were 80-year-old grannies.
Hybrids don't work for rural and far flung ex-urbans... folks who don't do a lot of short haul start-n-stop.
They are ass kick for suburban short haul commuters who mostly do start-n-stop (think of your typical congested freeway at RH).
They also aren't so hot for urban high density dwellers since they have mass transit available to them (and can rent a 'real car' for the occasional jaunt to the 'wilderness').
In short they really aren't much of a solution to the real problems we face - but a great marketing ploy.
Where I think hybrids will rock is for the power plants in city buses, delivery vehicles and such. They will employ clean burning diesels-electric hybrids and be quite efficient & surprisingly clean.
"Hybrids don't work for rural and far flung ex-urbans... folks who don't do a lot of short haul start-n-stop."
While I'm mainly a short-haul kinda guy, my hybrid routinely gets 51-52 mpg on 120 mile trips that involve traversing a couple of 1500-2000-ft mountain passes. And that's with the AC on. But you have to drive it like Grandma.
I do, however, agree with your central point: they aren't really society's answer. Come $6/gallon gas, though, they might be my answer.
I own a Honda Accord Hybrid V6 and under worst heavy traffic I get
23 MPG. On a trip to Vegas from LA
I got 33MPG. I love the car and hope that
congress makes it mandatory that all cars be Hybrid.
By the way 0-60 in 7 seconds( actual not printed BS in car mags). I have BMW's for lunch.
Investors are pulling BPOs (broker price opinions - where a realtor looks at recent sales and comes up with a value) and using these to discredit appraisals. It's a bit tragic that a licensed profession has become so comprimised as to allow this to happen.
Tanta on the 2 wamu scenarios, the latter is the more correct one IMO....
the older internal appraisals are the better ones... the ones with the biggest neg amort currently.
While I'm mainly a short-haul kinda guy, my hybrid routinely gets 51-52 mpg on 120 mile trips that involve traversing a couple of 1500-2000-ft mountain passes. And that's with the AC on. But you have to drive it like Grandma.
I drive Jetta turbo diesels w/ manual transmissions at 70-80 mph into prairie wind - punching it like the straight away at Daytona when passing farm vehicles... All of it with AC on and sun roof cracked... and I still get almost 50 mpg. If I drive like grandma I get slightly better than 50 mpg... screw grandma.
That has been my solution. I think it beats hybrids flat EXCEPT for start-n-stop. Diesels want to run, run, run. Star-n-stop, not so much. But that's not a problem out here on the prairie.
Tanta, your appraisal reset scenario doesn't work until REOs become such a large part of total sales that appraisers are forced to use them for comps.
Actually, the way it works is that the only appraisal assignment anyone is getting is to appraise REO, because those are the only happenin' kind of sales. You can use other REO for REO comps.
When the desperate sellers start listing for less than or the same as the REO, it won't matter.
And I love the typical financial scandal scape goat, witch hunt by another NY gov't employed Shyster looking to climb the slimmy political ladder. Yeah wow, EAppraieIT. Look at the biggi' I caught Maw!
In other news, no one at the IB's has had a Club Fed vacation in a VERY long time. Encon had quite a bit of help from War Shriek IB's setting up those off balance sheet entities. GRRRRR! I could go on but what's the point.
FWIW, the mileage advantage has been much greater for highway than city driving with my 2002 Civic hybrid, contrary to the early publicity. The hybrid is also quieter and heavier than an ordinary Civic, which makes it feel like a larger, more expensive car.
At the time I bought it the price was $20,000. The cost disadvantage calculation only works if you buy something significantly cheaper than $20,000, which rules out all but the cheapest new cars. Most people I know who have considered buying hybrids were not really considering a Hyundai Accent as the other alternative.
The cost differential is apparently even greater for used hybrids vs. other used cars, but that should tell you something about relative satisfaction with the car after purchase.
It's one thing to say we want inflated apprraisals, it's another thing to prove it happend, loan by loan, and that the borrower was injured...
He's probably going to try and prove 'the state' or even 'the public' was injured via the cost of foreclosures & such.
And if they show it was an ongoing 'process' they won't have to prove it loan by loan.
Revisit the tobacco cases - they didn't win because they showed each person died due to smoking - they proved it was an ongoing conspiracy sanctioned at the top and resulting in tangible damages to the 'state'.
This is initially more difficult to prove but actually easier to win in the end IF discovery backs up the 'conspiracy' meme. I bet it does.
Gentleman start your shredders... oh wait, too late for that? Oh well, cop a plea then instead.
I'll second dryfly's endorsement of hybrid buses and delivery vehicles. I have a college friend that is now a Civil Engineering Prof specializing in transportation (analyzing traffic flows, metering and sensors). He saying that what should be really interesting are when they apply hybrid technology to semi-trucks. If you separate the electrical generation from the electromotive driving wheels (think diesel trains) you can do electric handling and braking control systems and each trailer can have it's own set of driving wheels. All the rig has to do is provide electrical power and you can size it for the job and the cheapest fuel source available. You could also use small "tug" vehicle with a generator attached to move trailers around the yard and to local destinations.
The other big change will be the intelligent highway systems currently being designed (WiFi Plus Highway info/traffic flow/crash avoidance for the road).
Tanta - I agreed with your point regarding the accounting standards. But I also agree with Weil's concern, even though it's misdirected in its specifics.
I believe we are talking major regulatory failure. Guidelines for appraisals mandate independence. The banks I work for have to have board-approved appraisers and independent review for out of area appraisals. Does ANYONE believe that this WaMu arrangement meets that standard? The reason for having an in-house staff is that their interest is your interest. They do not need to hit the number to get your money!
When you are writing high numbers of loans with these risk factors and you go light on appraisals, you've completely screwed up your calculations for MI purposes as well.
I do believe that WaMu's earlier appraisals were of higher quality. But some of these suckers rolled over after recast, and my immediate reaction when I read the appraiser's post on Piggington was that the need to hit the numbers might account for the move.
Forgive the irate tone. I've been reviewing MBS remittance reports and docs, and I can only read so much of this crap without feeling the need to strip off my clothes, paint myself red and run through the center of town screaming "Run For Your LIVES!"
Continuing OT: I drove an 88 Saab 9000 Turbo and would consistantly get 33 Mpg on the freeway at 70 mph. Now this is a 1988 fullsize car that was heavy. I drove it until the little pieces of plastic got brittle that it was becoming a headache. Almost 300K miles and it ran like new.
Speaking of REOs, there are a couple of REO-specialist brokers across the street from the place where we eat breakfast three times a week. Business is not good.
Out of about 40 REO listings in the window over the past two or three months, two have been marked sold. Most of the rest have been marked down one or more times from the original ask. These are most of them marginal properties, probably from true sub-prime loans. A very few are top-of-the-line mini-manses, and those are the ones that have been selling.
"I believe we are talking major regulatory failure."
Nope, worked just the way it was intended by the Powers That Be on War Shreik. That is, the Regulators provide cover for the fraud going on behind the sceenes by publicly saying "Nothing to see here, move along". Now the regulators will work with their bosses, the regulated, and come up with necessary rule changes to help sweep it under the rug during the bail out.
"I can only read so much of this crap without feeling the need to strip off my clothes, paint myself red and run through the center of town screaming "Run For Your LIVES!"
... and First American's lead economist, Christopher Cagan Ph.D., for several years now has been propping up the housing markets by arguing the fundamentals have justified the rise in home price... Another NAR's DL.
"believe we are talking major regulatory failure. Guidelines for appraisals mandate independence. The banks I work for have to have board-approved appraisers and independent review for out of area appraisals. Does ANYONE believe that this WaMu arrangement meets that standard? The reason for having an in-house staff is that their interest is your interest. They do not need to hit the number to get your money!"
Yes, but some would argue the point that managing your own appraisal department is the furthest thing from an independent and unbiased arrangement.
Nope they didn't. Usually on Thursday you have 7 day, 14 day and the usual 1 day expiring repos ( repurchases ). These are transactions done 7, 14 days ago and replacing them is just maintaining the status quo - no adding/removing, just maintaining. And that's what they did - in fact there was 42.5B expiring today so net, net, they actually WITHDREW 1.5B. A site that keeps track of this is:
I've desk checked a few of their numbers and they've stacked in the past and once you regularly keep an eye on it, there's a certain easily followable rhythm to it.
Yeah, I know how the Fed spokesperson phrased it in that yahoo link but you really gonna believe that bunch ?
car mileage... 13 years ago I bought a Saturn SL1. It's rapidly approaching 200,000 miles. On my regular commute (about a 50-50 split highway/stop-and-go, NOT driving like granny) I get less than 30 mpg, I know something is wrong.
Question for anyone who might know the answer to this.
Assessed values where I live are based on "Fair Market Value" which relies heavily on comps. The assessed value of my house has increased dramatically the past few years and as a result my taxes have gone up quite a bit as well. For example they (county assessor)have a fair market value of $552k in 2007 and a fmv of $650k in 2009!!!
Could an argument be made that comps were overinflated via the actions of WAMU/First American/Eppraiser and if so are there any attorneys willing to start a class action....
Producer, at least the appraisers are paid regardless of whether they hit the number or not.
The truth is that no one can prevent an institution from committing suicide, but regulators can cut the losses to the taxpayers. I hope that WaMu does not fall into that category, but their fate is now going to be determined by home prices rather than their own actions.
The risk of making an internal appraisal department hit the numbers is that any one of those employees can tip off the regulators. It's a very dangerous thing to do because it comes straight back to you. If internal appraisals are managed independently from those who write the loans, it's pretty effective.
"I've desk checked a few of their numbers and they've stacked in the past and once you regularly keep an eye on it, there's a certain easily followable rhythm to it.
Yeah, I know how the Fed spokesperson phrased it in that yahoo link but you really gonna believe that bunch ?
-K
sk"
As I thought sk. More happy Bull (sh*t) to keep the markets all bubbly.
Where I think hybrids will rock is for the power plants in city buses, delivery vehicles and such. They will employ clean burning diesels-electric hybrids and be quite efficient & surprisingly clean.
Postal carriers on suburban or rural routes. Lots of stops (100-200 each per day). A postmaster told me that for each 1-cent increase in the cost of fuel, it costs USPS $7MM.
Since appraising is an opinion not a science, you will be hard pressed to prove fraud unless the comps were actually non-existent.
They won't have to. They show the intent was to defraud & cover up not that an actual loan was fraudulent. They show that via the email trail assuming (as the article suggests) it exists.
All they will have to do is show a few were CLEARLY fraudulent and that there was a process sanctioned from on high to make this happen. Even if the defense shows many others were not they will be faced with the paper trail showing management intent and a few examples with comps to back it up... tough to defend.
The key question is what do the emails say & how damning are they.
Producer, why do you think anyone has to prove harm to an individual borrower, or even a group of borrowers? The alleged conduct here is a violation of FIRREA. I don't recall anything in FIRREA hinging on proof of harm to any individual. The basis here seems to be collusion in violating federal regulations. The "harm to consumer" stuff is the AG's rhetorical flourish.
MOM, the trouble is that having staff appraisers only works if you're a local lender. You get no argument from me that it's the best way to manage appraisal risk, but how do you have 800 lb gorilla national lenders working with 8,000 brokers in 50 states without using fee appraisers? Whatsamadda, you hate capitalizm or something?
I'd say you need to give up the remittance reports and open up the Scotch. You might still lose your head, but you'll enjoy it more.
"The alleged conduct here is a violation of FIRREA. I don't recall anything in FIRREA hinging on proof of harm to any individual. The basis here seems to be collusion in violating federal regulations. The "harm to consumer" stuff is the AG's rhetorical flourish."
I understand that and I am not trying to be combative but I do not see anything here where anyone asked anyone to commit fraud, just to bring in favorable values -- which you can do as long as your opinion is based on real and true factors.
I do not see where he is suing for FIRREA violations, but for conspiracy to inflate values to the extent that it caused damage to the borrowers economic situation - foreclosure.
Producer, please double check the press release. Cuomo is suing for violation of state and federal regulations, not on behalf of home buyers. Under the law of most states, home buyers are not even entitled to rely on an appraisal that was done for the benefit of the lender.
Tanta, I know you've posted before on AVMs. Do you feel they've ever been worth anything to help determine collateral value? Do you think they have a future use?
"Where I think hybrids will rock is for the power plants in city buses, delivery vehicles and such. They will employ clean burning diesels-electric hybrids and be quite efficient & surprisingly clean."
I am a ASE Master tech for a well known multinational. Don't worry you have heard of us. We are currently running diesel/electric hybrids for pick up and delivery.
They do not work.
Well,o.k.,they work,but the milage increase is so tiny over the latest common rail/high boost diesels it would take us like 50 years to recoup the costs.
This test has been ongoing for 2 years. I will not even get into all the other related problems.
Hey,but the good news is i have never put brake pads on em...
I personally believe for short distance we will gradually move to 100% electric.
Chris
P.S.- I drive a 06 Vette and get damn near 30 interstate/20 city with it. I have a lead foot also...
WaMu Suspending Relationship with eAppraiseIT
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE:WM). We are surprised and disappointed by the allegations in the complaint related to eAppraiseIT. We are suspending our relationship with eAppraiseIT until we can further investigate the situation. We have absolutely no incentive to have appraisers inflate home values. In fact, inflated appraisals are contrary to our interests. We use third-party appraisal companies to make sure that appraisals are objective and accurate.
All well and good but be honest. 50 mpg diesel is "only" 43 mpg gasoline. [For the non-technonerdians; diesel has 15% more energy per gallon.]
Bob that's a PLUS for diesel not a minus. Diesel fuel 'costs less' to produce from an inputs basis than gasoline... it is a low draw off the fractionation process. Because it's lower down they don't have to reboil as much and so requires less energy to separate.
The current price is higher because of the recent low sulfer reqs AND lack of processing capacity. That will reverse eventually.
Plus as crude gets cruddier (as light sweet gets scarcer) it is even better - way more heavy and less light draws in the feedstock, advantage diesel. They will still have to crack but not as much.
Too bad they haven't figured out how to directly pour & burn 'coke' and we'd have it made...
And if they ever get better low cost super materials they could someday run 'adiabatic diesel' - run hot as hell with no radiator. That gives you something like 30% MORE efficiency. NOX issues but that too is probably solvable.
You can't run gasoline like that - pre-ignites, in effect 'diesels'.
"Producer, please double check the press release. Cuomo is suing for violation of state and federal regulations, not on behalf of home buyers. Under the law of most states, home buyers are not even entitled to rely on an appraisal that was done for the benefit of the lender."
E-Appraiseit! sued Pam Crowley for Defamation earlier this year seeking injunctive relief,and Anthony Merlo,President of E-appraiseit! testified.There is a pdf file of the deposition by Merlo at Pam's website "MortgageFraudWatchlist" for those with a taste for cheap humor.
===========================
As I thought sk. More happy Bull (sh*t) to keep the markets all bubbly.
Cheers,
Misean
Well, feeling less angst, a little more flush ( CROX became a CROCK yayyy and I didn't have to suffer the strum and drang to anything like the length of time that KrispyKreme did ), and since this is a new hobby horse of mine, I emailed the AP reporter of the story with the details and suggested a correction.
Telling reporters, POLITELY, about this sort of stuff CAN work - Last year I got so pissed with the way the +/- range and lack of statistical significance to the MoM home sales number out of the census.gov was being reported in the MSM, I sent out a few emails pointing it out - seemed to have worked too - I saw the statistical caveats turn up on CNBC amongst other places !
If USD keep falling, and hits 90-cents CAD ... they can sell all the Florida REO's to the Canadians that will be invading this winter.
Call me when Florida stops fisting out of state owners on property tax. This Canuck wouldn't buy anything in Florida, even a REO, for even 30 cents on the dollar until the citizens elect a legislature who will end the rape of non-Floridians.
Until then, they can keep their depreciating "assets".
I do not see where he is suing for FIRREA violations,
Well, the article says "Attorney General Cuomos investigation uncovered a series of e-mails between executives at EA, First American, and WaMu that show EA officials were willingly violating state and federal appraisal independence regulations."
What federal reg besides FIRREA do you think they've got in mind?
just to bring in favorable values IS a violation of FIRREA (as in USPAP, the standards authorized by the law).
"The State sues to redress injury to the State, and to its general
economy and residents, as well as on behalf of: (1) persons who obtained mortgages, home
equity loans, or refinanced their homes with WaMu and as to whose homes eAppraiseIT
conducted the real estate appraisal; and (2) persons who bought WaMu loans secured by
mortgages that were improperly appraised by defendants. The State seeks disgorgement,
restitution, damages including costs, and equitable relief with respect to defendants fraudulent,
deceptive, and otherwise unlawful conduct.
FACTUAL ALLEGATIONS
I. The Real Estate Mortgage Industry
A. Background
12. Most people interested in purchasing or refinancing a home (borrowers) seek a
financial institution (a lender) to lend them money on the most favorable repayment terms
available. Traditionally the lender, as part of agreeing to loan the funds, wanted to ensure that
the borrower was able to repay the loan and that the loan was adequately collateralized in case"
So they are suing for injury to specific homeowners and disengorgement.
--
"Jas, I'm really surprised a guy who walks away from csco is playing the puts, when you should be liquid enough to be short outright and not have to worry about time premium and such."
confused,
Shorting is a tricky game. I have learned to do both. I sell some naked calls too. Use all the tools at your disposal.
I have been doing LEAPS, long as well as short, since they were first introduced in late 1980s. I have discovered that I am not good at timing the turns in the stocks, or the indexes, and LEAPS give one time. My target for long-term puts is 10X from their lows (they were at a loss six months ago) and I think that that goal would be exceeded.
Lawsuit filed against CFC 10/31 alleging securities fraud in connection with Series A and B Senior Convertible Debentures. Unfortunately, I don't have a link, but I'm sure someone here can provide.
I personally believe for short distance we will gradually move to 100% electric.
You could be right on that. The problem is the batteries - you can carry a load or you can carry the batteries but not both. If they get that solved then electric rocks.
Plus you still have to generate the electricity somewhere - west coast people just LOVE electric... their pollution falls in New England and Canada. They might not love it so much when its used to make Beijing 'clean'.
And the trouble with fuel cells is also the 'fuel'. How do you make enough hydrogen? No clean way to get there soon either.
That is why HB-diesel makes sense IF the vehicles are appropriately engineered (not just slapping jerry-rig compromises onto existing platforms). The electromotive example Andrew pointed out has real promise.
Your source seems to have some additional details. The press release CR posted says this:
"Attorney General Cuomos lawsuit seeks to end the illegal relationship between First American and EA and WaMu. It also seeks penalties and disgorgement from First American and EA. The lawsuit alleges that First American and EA violated appraiser independence laws, which regulate the conduct of real estate appraisers."
I am not a New York lawyer, but I will be surprised if Cuomo can extend this to get any recovery for home buyers except in very unusual circumstances.
Entwistle & Cappucci LLP and Susman Godfrey LLP Announce Class Action Lawsuit Against Countrywide Financial Corporation
11:08a ET October 31, 2007 (Business Wire)
Pursuant to Section 21(D)(a)(3)(A)(i) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), Entwistle & Cappucci LLP ("Entwistle & Cappucci") (http://www.entwistle-law.com), a prominent New York law firm with a specialty in complex securities litigation, and Susman Godfrey LLP ("Susman Godfrey"), a nationally prominent firm with a specialty in complex commercial litigation, hereby give notice that they have filed a class action complaint for violations of the federal securities laws and California state law against Countrywide Financial Corporation ("Countrywide" or the "Company") (NYSE:CFC), Angelo R. Mozilo, David Sambol and Eric P. Sieracki in the United States District Court for the Central District of California, Western Division. The lawsuit is brought on behalf of all persons or entities who purchased Countrywide Financial Corporation Series A Floating Rate Convertible Senior Debentures Due 2037 (the "Series A Debentures") and/or Countrywide Financial Corporation Series B Floating Rate Convertible Senior Debentures Due 2037 (the "Series B Debentures") (collectively, the "Debentures") from May 17, 2007 through and including August 9, 2007 (the "Class Period"). No class has yet been certified in this action.
The complaint alleges that the Defendants issued a series of materially false and misleading statements and omitted material facts concerning the Company's lending practices and internal controls. In this regard, Countrywide allegedly misrepresented its position in the mortgage market by stating that the current downcycle in the housing market would actually place the Company in a "superior competitive position" based on the strength of its "capital liquidity positions, superior business model, and best in class workforce." The complaint further alleges that the Defendants falsely assured investors that Countrywide employed exacting loan underwriting and origination practices to ensure creditworthiness of loan applicants; implemented internal controls to anticipate appropriate loan loss reserves for any negative changes in the credit and housing markets; and maintained actual reserves to adequately meet such market downturns. Moreover, the complaint alleges that the Company's statements were materially false and misleading because Defendants, in fact: (i) did not follow Countrywide's reportedly strict underwriting and loan-origination practices; (ii) made a material portion of the Company's loans with little, if any, supporting documentation, such that Countrywide had no way of confirming the creditworthiness of many loan applicants; (iii) mischaracterized "low documentation" and "no documentation" loans as "prime loans;" (iv) failed to maintain adequate loan loss reserves; and (v) impro
So they are suing for injury to specific homeowners and disengorgement.
Producer, this complaint does not appear to be alleging any specific fact about any specific appraisal.
It alleges that the relationship/structure of the agreement between and among the parties violates NY and Federal law regarding appraisal independence.
(The NY law in question incorporates USPAP, so it's basically the same grounds as FIRREA.)
SK, I know you checked this out, but there's another article on the Fed $41B injection on CNN/Money. Seems they claim it came from the NY Fed in three actions. Could there be something to it?
"...
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which carries out the central bank's open market operations, moved Thursday to inject $41 billion in temporary reserves into the U.S financial system. It was an action designed to ensure that the markets - which have suffered through a period of turbulence over the last few months - functions smoothly. The cash infusion came in three separate operations.
..."
Separately, dryfly, I've been hearing rumors that some car makers have been looking at "gas diesels" recently (GM?). Gas engines that use direct injection like true diesels and can take advantage of the higher compression ratios for improved efficiency over a pure gasoline engine, while running on the more available and cleaner burning gasoline. Oh, and a problem with most adiabatic engines I've heard of is that they tend to require use of high temp ceramics (as opposed to aluminum or iron) so as not to melt.
Tanta - but if you have staff appraisers, they do the review as well. Can't let the loan officers do it.
Scotch is out. This ain't SF and I'm middle-aged, I can't afford to find myself doing a Lady Godiva in the Deep South. Even if I didn't get arrested someone would take pictures.
"HI, GUYS! CAN YOU DO ANYTHING ABOUT NAR'S PRESS RELEASES? WE THINK THOSE SHOULD BE ILLEGAL, TOO. THANKS!"
LOL. Might be a lawsuit about those one day, too. It's nice to know that at least there's a litigation boom in the works. One growth industry we can count on, I guess.
Oh, and a problem with most adiabatic engines I've heard of is that they tend to require use of high temp ceramics (as opposed to aluminum or iron) so as not to melt.
Yup - advanced materials is the key. But that's either a problem or an opportunity - depending if you're with the folks thinking up the solution or paying sufferin' with the problem.
I wonder if any of those laid off RE agents in Cali know anything about ceramics or cermet composites? I've got it from reliable sources that some of them know all about bio-materials, especially 'implants'. One can only hope.
"That is why HB-diesel makes sense IF the vehicles are appropriately engineered (not just slapping jerry-rig compromises onto existing platforms). The electromotive example Andrew pointed out has real promise."
Dryfly,
The said trucks were the latest in technology and actually bought in volume. Heck reading your posts i am going to bet you work with a lot of the suppliers of the components. I actually had huge hopes that they would save us money/fuel.
A basic 16k gvw truck is running about 60k. We average 12-13 mpg on the 06's. I heard a rumor the hybrids were just north of a 100k. The last download i did showed 13.6 mpg. Same types of usage.
Most people do not understand how efficient most newer engines are...
dryfly - "The problem is the batteries - you can carry a load or you can carry the batteries but not both. If they get that solved then electric rocks."
The train history my Civil Engineering Prof friend tried to beat into me is coming back to haunt me it seems. Most times in the past (trains and trollys) this was solved by not using batteries and picking up power from beside the road way or from overhead lines. In the olden days trolly companies used to strap on gas generators to move their cars over rail lines that didn't have power available, making them look functionally just like hybrids or electromotive diesel trains.
Having worked at Honeywell for my sins in the past, I also know that there are also extremely funky things that can be done with electric control systems and control laws. Honeywell just did them for things like fighters and rockets. However, the concept is valid and even currently being used in the "electronic stability control" features of modern cars (just not directly and mainly via the anti-lock brakes and electronic control of the gas engine). Want a sports car (Tesla) or grocery getter that is faster than gas and can out corner/drive better than you? Make it an electric all-wheel drive.
Andrew at Honeywell? Our paths probably crossed... I was the geeky looking engineer trying to look 'salesmanlyish' in the lobby. I'm sure I was the only one that ever fit THAT description.
But we should never forget that Andrew Cuomo is an acorn that fell far from his dad's tree. He's a ruthlessly ambitious publicity hound with a jaundiced eye on the White House.
He's a snake, but snakes ain't all bad--sometimes they catch rats!
"A basic 16k gvw truck is running about 60k. We average 12-13 mpg on the 06's. I heard a rumor the hybrids were just north of a 100k. The last download i did showed 13.6 mpg. Same types of usage. Most people do not understand how efficient most newer engines are..." - Chris
Chris, that has always been a problem with technology. As dryfly will probably attest, in many cases it is not that we can/can't do something technically. It is really more of a cost/effectiveness issue. There's an old saying that farmers usually painted barns red because that was the cheapest paint and red was the cheapest paint because the hardware people sold so much of it.
Gas Direct Injection. I really have not kept up with this technology much and i really need to. We have reached the limit of pulse width control on the current range of electronic injectors.
The current high pressure diesel injectors run upwards of 30k psi(Not a typo!) These can be modulated multiple times per firing cycle. It gives incredible control of the fuel curve with very little waste.
My understanding was OEM's wish to use this technology to get much better control of the gasoline fueling cycle.
but there's another article on the Fed $41B injection on CNN/Money. Seems they claim it came from the NY Fed in three actions. Could there be something to it?
The CNN story is the same AP news story that was in the biz.yahoo link. I agree there were 3 actions - you can see them yourself at: Temporary Open Market Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
And you can see that the repos were a 1day of 12B, 7day of 8B and a 14day of 21B.
To understand that, think of it as running hard to stand still - if they don't do ANOTHER 1 day repo tomorrow of 12B, today's 1 day repo will expire and that's a withdrawal of 12B. And, all other things being equal, if they don't do another repo of 8B in 7 days time, today's 7 day will expire and that would be a withdrawal of 8B.. and so on.
Similarly to see the impact of their handiwork today, you have to consider the expiration of the impact of their handiwork in the past 1 day, 7 day , 14 days.
That website I've mentioned, its not mine, keeps track of all this.
Or to put that in terms relevant to the current off-topic (sorry for the thread hijack folks), we've been able to do Hybrids since approximately 1901. But they all died horrible deaths (GM's EV1 of the 1990's anyone?) until recently when they suddenly gained acceptance. Critical mass and general acceptance are key.
Yeah dryfly, Honeywell. I was the geeky looking grad student at the Camden Research Center that they were using as an Igor/lab rat for the Boeing 777 control system. They didn't let me come out into the lobby (or light) often.
Any and all types of cycles. The hybrids actually didn't do well on the 200 mile a day routes (We had to try). They actually did the best when used around town(again...duh).
Most days,100 plus starting cycles with less that 50-75 miles.
These were true diesel/generators,batteries and dual rear electric drive motors.
Should i even tell about the particulate traps that were used ??? Alot of people buying 07's are going to be in for a rude awakening when the warranty runs out...
Cobradriver - thanks. Yes, that makes sense. I've read other places that serial hybrids haven't been cost effective so far in mixed cycles, but only in pure urban cycles. For parallel hybrids (like the Prius setup) in large vehicles the picture is even more mixed.
I have a feeling I am on thier list of appraisers that won't "play Ball". Otherwise, beyond some questionable reconsideration of value requests, EA has been pretty much above water. Now if they didn't pay slave fees, they may be a decent company.
"The current high pressure diesel injectors run upwards of 30k psi(Not a typo!) These can be modulated multiple times per firing cycle. It gives incredible control of the fuel curve with very little waste.
My understanding was OEM's wish to use this technology to get much better control of the gasoline fueling cycle." - Chris
It also gives them control over the engine noise and pollution output. I understand this has been where they have been making inroads on making cars like dryfly's TDI Jetta acceptable to both the public and the EPA. No more knockin' or smoking. For the record Chris I've been a car nut since highschool and an old 53 Ford flathead came my way. To my surprise I've currently got a 98 dodge truck with the Cummins diesel (inherited from brother after his wife objected - she didn't object to his TDI Jetta).
On the relative long haul efficiency of hybrids over diesels - it stands to reason, the diesels is a dedicated single mover/power source system and can be designed simpler, lighter and more efficient at constant speed than the multiple power source hybrid. The main advantage of the hybrid is the ability to scavenge, store, and reuse power in getting the vehicle moving again that would otherwise be lost to heating up the brakes. They have other advantages (like allowing the heat engine/generator to run at their most efficient speed and/or where the batteries can be precharged off the outlet before driving), but mainly they just store otherwise lost braking power like a spring would and allow you to release it again when the red light turns green, smoothing out the power demand from the heat engine.
Should i even tell about the particulate traps that were used ??? Alot of people buying 07's are going to be in for a rude awakening when the warranty runs out...
Let me guess, our metal loving friends who populate this blog are gonna be 'specially happy, right?
Seems "Filters require more maintenance than catalytic converters. Engine oil ash builds up on the surface of the inlet face of the filter, and will eventually clog the pores. This increases the pressure drop over the filter, which when it reaches 100 inches of water or higher is capable of causing engine damage. Regular filter maintenance is a necessity."
In other words, you get a high tech version of the potato up the tail pipe until you replace it. Oh boy.
In other words, you get a high tech version of the potato up the tail pipe until you replace it. Oh boy.
Also explains why refineries had to 'clean up their act' wrt diesel fuel. Used to be diesel was the crudest crud you could pour & burn... so long as water wasn't included. Not any more.
"Separately, dryfly, I've been hearing rumors that some car makers have been looking at "gas diesels" recently (GM?). Gas engines that use direct injection like true diesels and can take advantage of the higher compression ratios for improved efficiency over a pure gasoline engine, while running on the more available and cleaner burning gasoline."
It's called HCCI (homogeneous charge compression ignition). It works only with a warm engine at part load, it runs as a spark ignition motor otherwise.
On diesels, I'm making 11.1 MPG as of the last report (Sterling 32K GVWR MBE 900 250 horse), fleet goal is 9.37. May not seem like much of a gap but that's 18%, or 25 gallons a week ($75.00) on the 1525 miles I run each week. Make it by running the speed limit and not idling more than necessary. A diesel might save you money versus a gas engine running 80, but keep the RPMs and the speed down and it will do even better.
Even if all the automakers switch to diesels or hybrids next year it will take years for the fleet to be replaced. Drivers can change their behavior today. But of course everyone will keep the pedal to the metal flying down the road with their yellow ribbon sticker on the trunk lid.
It's OK though, America's stupidity keeps me in a job: I deliver auto parts.
Don, that was part of the push behind the 55mph speed limit change in the 70's during the last crisis and, as I understand it, was more about aerodynamics than engine speed.
Aerodynamic drag is an exponential force, the faster you got the higher it is and it increases at an ever increasing rate. I understand WWII fighter pilots used to ask folks at home to send them cans of auto wax so that they could reduce that last Nth degree of drag and speed their planes up, increasing their chances of survival. Heck, my winter beater Jeep Cherokee will get 20 mi/gal if I keep it under 60mph on the freeway. But anything over 65 and the mileage drops like a rock and I'm lucky to get 15 mi/gal at 75mph. Don't ask about city stop and go driving. So, if you really want to increase mileage in a given vehicle, reduce your top speed and aerodynamic drag, and don't jackrabbit off the line in stop and go.
Oh, also. Each Gas and Diesel engine has a certain rpm that they are most efficient at. This is another one of the advantages of a true electromotive system (diesel train and some new hybrids). By storing energy and moderating the power demand from the heat engine, it can keep the heat engine (turbine, gas engine, diesel, etc.) running at a near constant speed and near where it is in its most efficient operating condition, regardless of how much you are jumping up and down on the pedal.
About the ceramics, US ceramic companies have been trying to hit this home-run from the get-go. They run out of venture capital and fail. Or a new CEO kills off the project because it is more than a decade away from being ready.
The Japanese ceramic companies (mostly Kyocera) are working on the smaller things to get longer lasting ceramics, and selling those smaller things as they go. So they make ceramic scissors and knives, among other things to build the skill and expertise to make longer lasting ceramics.
If ceramic engine blocks are even practical (and I'm not all that certain that they will be, for starters one would need a new engine cycle as I don't believe that ceramic engines can work with Otto/Diesel cycles, perhaps the direction that HCCI is going), they will come from Japan. Because of our short attention cycles in the US, we don't engage in long term planning. And as is brutally visible in the software development industry, our longer term (longer than 1 financial quarter) planning is piss poor as well. Many people like to pretend that we have innovation in the US - we don't and we can't because it will be smothered by mismanagement.
I used to work for GM, and the understanding that I got about why the EV-1 was withdrawn from the market was that CA wanted direct electrical connections for the recharging. The EV1 used an inductive paddle.
Inductive paddles -
Pros: no chance of electrical shock if recharging in the rain
Cons: loses energy when recharging.
Direct connection -
Pros: Only resistive loss when recharging (warm wires).
Cons: Dangerous when wet. While there are waterproof electrical connectors (most of the connectors under the hood are waterproof), waterproof connectors are only rated for very few insertion/removal cycles: many of the ones under the hood of your car are only rated for 5-15 connect/disconnect cycles.
The complaint filed today by the New York Attorney General against First American and our eAppraiseIT subsidiary has no foundation in fact or law. We are dismayed by any impact these specious allegations may have on our company, on our many employees and on our valued customer, Washington Mutual. The Attorney Generals allegations, largely based on a handful of e-mails that have been taken out of context, or mischaracterized, and an incomplete review of the facts, belie our record of compliance with applicable law. The program called into question today by the Attorney General has been vetted and approved by the federal regulator responsible for oversight of such programs. We welcome the opportunity to now present all the facts before an impartial third party. In that presentation, we will demonstrate the appropriateness of our appraisal practices in the state of New York and we will vigorously defend the reputation of Washington Mutual and the reputation we have labored more than 100 years to build.
If all Mario Jr. has is a couple of emails, then he needs to ask his mentor , Spitzer, for some advice.
Oh, heck, and I thought he was going to save us from this housing crisis.
I used to work in Risk Management for the old MCI (pre-Worldcom) and we hammered people about the emails...the stuff NEVER goes away and it'll come back like Jacob Marley.
The sad thing is that the way EA conducts business is far more reliable and above water than the product produced when mortgage brokers have ordering power of appraisals.
Dry Fly - Where do you live? I just made my last big fishing trip of the year last weekend and now it will be just reading blogs about the subprime debacle until march, except for waterfowl hunting...the pleasures of being underemployed
Who didn't know this was going on? Wake up!
crispy,
But that is the whole courtroom dilemma writ large - the difference between knowing and proving it!
The surprise is that they left such beautiful evidence behind.
Sounds like WAMU was having a tough time finding large enough OA's to finance. Glad they found a solution. Hope they were extra carefull in their underwriting on loans to purchase inflated assets.
and would have gotten away with it, if not for those pesky emails..
Why is Wamu not named in this?
Shocked I tell you:-) Wake up America!
Redneck High cue
I'm last in my hood
Is there enough copper in vacants
to make my monthly
I cant make mortgage
if my bank shuts down today
out of sight and mind
Or was this done to make loans on WAMU's books have a lower LTV?
It's one thing to have losses, it's quite another when the lawyers start getting involved.
Salt, meet wound.
Ford Oct. U.S. sales fall 9.5%
Ford Oct. U.S. sales fall 9.5% - MarketWatch
and the blaming game starts...
Ironic how they waited past Halloween to start the witch hunt.
Unpaid dues
Homeowners associations countywide are hit by foreclosure fallout and feeling the pinch of ...
By Lori Weisberg
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
November 1, 2007
San Diego County's mushrooming number of foreclosures is starting to hobble homeowners associations large and small as cash-strapped owners cease paying their monthly dues.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20071101-9999-1n1dues.html
Can we revisit the discussion on OA mortgages at WaMu based on this?
I knew this was going to happen when WaMu fired its internal appraisers in 2006. Needless to say, I thought it was an exercise in plausible deniability.
I was biting my tongue yesterday wanting to post on that WaMu thread. Their problem is less the OAs than the inflated appraisals.
I heard about the change to outsourcing appraisals from an appraiser on Piggington's last year. And I knew immediately. Who in their right mind does this in that environment?
Let me try that link again:
Page not found
and the blaming game starts...
The whole RE industry is based on a scam a lie and fraud.
Well, I'm glad that WaMu decided to keep all of these "high quality" loans on their own books, rather than package and resell them....that might be unethical.
Ford Oct. U.S. sales fall 9.5%
IIS 7.5 Detailed Error - 400.0 - Bad Request
dist=hplatest
REBear
housing recession,us auto recession, flyover usa recession, wall street recession by feb 15, refinery recession, ...
besides appl and goog, where is the ecomony rockin?
Thanks Crispy just what I was going to ask...
Note to self: When committing felony fraud, don't use email.
I think US is about to experience hyperinflation via proxy, unique type of situation. Dollar is now actually world pricing currency but nobody wants more dollars. Reserve status is going down to the toilet...
Most foreign producers/countries etc etc have up to their ears vast quantities of dollars and new ones are not wanted or welcomed.
So they continue quoting prices in dollars but demand payments via other currencies or gold/silver etc etc.
They do not really give a shit about the dollar price but they give a damn about the ratio between their own currency and dollar.
That quoting mechanism and saturated dollar market could easily lead to hyperinflation via exported commodities and raw materials inside the US. Even if FED does not print one single new dollar or tries to expand M3 in any other way!
MOM, don't hold back!
I'd say that together they make the perfect storm - particularly if you throw in falling house prices, legal action, etc.
And a lot of those mortgages are low-doc/no-doc. Someone, I think it was bacon dreamz, posted the stats yesterday.
Looks like we have finally found some scapegoats for the RE bust in a similar way as we did for the Nasdaq bust 2002. We can expect to get some high-profile courtroom shows and probably "guilty" sentences. Criminal behavior should be punished, also to deter future fraud cases. Then we'll be fine until the next RE boom.
O-Joe
When given all of today's fine news, a "data driven" Fed will have to keep cutting.
Upside to every cut getting smaller and smaller.
How much money will be injected now?
If these guys hadn't been so stupid as to leave a beautiful email evidence trail they would never have been caught. The other 99.9% can rest easy.
Like I've been saying for over a year now, this is going to be a bonanza for lawyers.
Spitzer as NYAG was like a one man lawyer full employment act, and Cuomo looks to be filling those shoes now.
But before all the lawyer-haters start chirping: if the Federal government were not actively neglecting regulatory oversight for the past 7 years, we wouldn't be dealing with this.
The problem begins with an administration that sabotaged the public good for private gains. Chickens, meet roost.
Neal,
I agree, after cutting yesterday and pumping in $41 billion, the stock market has given up just about all of its gains today.
Regards,
Well, I guess they didn't want to make any questionable loans: "Let's make sure this sucker stinks."
Or maybe: "If we speed up we'll make it through that iceberg easily, Captain!"
CR,
First American is primarily a title insurance company, which is expanding into other services. If a WaMu exec actually said "if the appraisal issues are resolved and things are working well he would welcome conversations about expanding our relationship he meant that they had lots of ways of rewarding their lack of professional conscience. I can think of at least one federal law that might be violated thereby.
Mark
Looks like Cuomo is setting himself up to be the next GOTSONY after Spitzer gets plucked away to be USAG...
And if Spitzer's eyes are bigger and see's the AG job as a dead end, maybe a highly visible suit like this propels Mr. Cuomo to DOJ?
Assuming of course a prominent NY Dem becomes the next pres. I'm not ready to assume that is a 100% done deal but given the hypothetical it appears Mr. Cuomo's timing is pretty damn good.
An appraiser on Lansner's blog used to frequently post about things such as these. For example,
Subprime ‘cesspool’ should dull economy, Pimco says - Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register
Mr. Cuomo's timing is pretty damn good.
How good does your timing have to be when they throw you a softball pitch like this?
Lets see:
88% Wamu OA low/no doc
60% of Wamu OA (and 60% of HE) in Ca & Fla
Now appraisal fraud
So that's why Wamu is down 2 points today.
It's obvious that the reason EA/FAF is the only named party in the suit is that WAMU wasn't stupid enough to admit to wrongdoing in it's own damn internal emails!! The AG probably can't build enough evidence that WAMU officials forced the inflated values then used those values illegally.
What a joke. I hope there's jail time for some of these yahoos...
Re: Ford sales numbers
Like the housing industry, the auto industry front loaded sales over the last 4 years and are paying heavy for it today and going forward. I talk to dealer owners everyday. They are hurting. Their saving grace is service. Service margin carries 90-100% of store expenses. You will see domestic stores reduced dramatically over course of 2-3 years. Chrysler 4500 dealers-Toyota 1900 dealers.
They opened to many franchises within one market area thus pushing sales down per store. Dealerships need sales to convert to service. More money made there than sale of vehicle.
Auto industy will take along time to recover. This will only enhance recession and home devaluation thru the next 2 years. Ford tech can earn 100K but based on hours sold in service. Serious trouble for all manufacturers including imports. Sales to service conversion is dropping without new customers backfilling service pipeline.
All the people I talk to in the industry are scared!
Housing and Auto business took todays sales away when they gave away credit at low rates. Last 5 years were greatest auto boom of all time. Look out below!!!!!!!!!!
I would hope for criminal as well as civil charges. Sending "snakes in suits" to jail does more to deter future fraud than just fining companies.
How good does your timing have to be when they throw you a softball pitch like this?
Which would you rather be? Good or lucky?
but remember: say "no" to cram downs...
Here is what will happen: there are criminal charges. They are likely investigating others, as in the insurance investigations under Spitzer.
Then, the class-action lawsuits will be filed against these parties, and similarly situated firms, alleging wrongdoing. The discovery alone will be mind boggling.
Excuse me; I meant government charges, not criminal. Private lawsuits will follow on the official suits.
It's obvious that the reason EA/FAF is the only named party in the suit is that WAMU wasn't stupid enough to admit to wrongdoing in it's own damn internal emails!! The AG probably can't build enough evidence that WAMU officials forced the inflated values then used those values illegally.
The could also be leaning on the appraisers to turn states evidence against WaMu. I would but then I'm not a lawyer, don't even play one on TV though I think I could... Hey you folks over at Law-n-Order, call me... lets do lunch some day. Chao.
I love it. All the Sh!!t accomulated for the past years are slowly surfacing.
The discovery alone will be mind boggling.
A la tobacco lawsuits. Get the stuff unsealed and voilà.
The could also be leaning on the appraisers to turn states evidence against WaMu.
For sure. By late 2006, there was no reason for WaMu to want inflated appraisals unless they needed to mask LTV losses. My guess: there are probably a dozen execs at WaMu lining up to give evidence in exchange for immunity.
So it goes...
My guess: there are probably a dozen execs at WaMu lining up to give evidence in exchange for immunity.
Book'em, Dan-O.
Hey you folks over at Law-n-Order, call me... lets do lunch some day. Chao.
i believe you mean "chow". philistine.
Howls of derisive laughter. Now how many bagholders are going to sue WAMU for the full value of their now degraded cmo conduits that were stuffed with this pork?
I can hardly wait- the lawyers are truly going to feast on the mortgage industry- and it couldn't happen to nicer folks- including someone currently masquerading as a US ambassador. Club Fed in Nevada is going to fill up fast as the eternal damnation of cyberspace just doesn't seem to respond to a shredder like good ol' fashioned paper.
RTC is a' coming, and banker doesn't believe it! We sure forgot the reasons why the mortgage and financial industry used to be heavily regulated, now we get to pay again through the nose to fix what we broke.
Someday this war's gonna end...
--
First American is a small potato.
CountryFried Financial: "Toxic waste, finger lickin' good
CFC
Mozilo is a crook and I doubt that he will go to jail. Another toxic financial waste site is Citi Group put together by the biggest crooks of them all, Sanford Weill, comfortably retired. Free market has never been so free!
Jas
PS: Sold all the remaining Jan08 puts on C (toxic financial waste site) and still holding tons of Jan09 and Jan10 puts on Fraudentials and some recent tech high-fliers.
All the people I talk to in the industry are scared!
I just got word of a mfg company in Chicago - completely 'world class state of the art' - that closed recently. I worked with them about a decade ago and they told me to pound sand... they were 100% automotive and I don't do a lot of automotive... some but not 'too much'. Not enough for them it appears.
Anyway they wanted automotive or nothing - this was when gas was way below $2... close to $1... and everyone was buying the biggest earthmover SUV they could. Life was good if you walked the earth then (imagine a dinosaur pulling up next to you).
Anyway - guess what - I'm getting calls from those same kinda 'automotive supply chain addicts' asking if maybe I could help them find business that isn't like totally automotive.
I think they are too late. They had to be making that move & 're-structuring' appropriately a couple years ago at the latest.
There will be more failures & more angst in this sector.
At another company, capital markets would call down to prop valuation and overide the appraised values in the system with values the traders set, just to make their deals go more smoothly. Now, they are losing billions. So sad.
i believe you mean "chow". philistine.
You don't like my Hollywood translation? See if I ever invite YOU to any parties...
In other news,
The sun rises in the east and sets in the west.
Having diareah in this weather sucks.
The Pope is, stubbornly, STILL Catholic.
It's bright and sunny in So-Cal today.
More breaking news in the next hour.
Cheers,
It's "Ciao!" Are there no Italians here to set the record straight?
Can we revisit the discussion on OA mortgages at WaMu based on this?
I knew this was going to happen when WaMu fired its internal appraisers in 2006. Needless to say, I thought it was an exercise in plausible deniability.
I was biting my tongue yesterday wanting to post on that WaMu thread. Their problem is less the OAs than the inflated appraisals.
So . . . WaMu just started getting hinky appraisals in April 2006? That I doubt.
Either WaMu's internally-generated appraisals on the pre-April 2006 OAs are just as wretched as the ones it got from EA, in which case they just got cheaper (because outsouced) bad appraisals, or WaMu's internally-generated appraisals were better than EAs, in which case those loans with the biggest neg am balances (the oldest ones) had the best appraisals.
No?
everyone was buying the biggest earthmover SUV they could.
I remember when they said hybrids wouldn't make sense unless gas was $3.00 a gallon. Hmmm.
It's obvious that the reason EA/FAF is the only named party in the suit is that WAMU wasn't stupid enough to admit to wrongdoing in it's own damn internal emails!!
It won't take a rocket scientist to prove why WaMu wanted inflated values. Now that the indictments have begun, the rats will be crushing each other trying to jump ship.
On thing Enron taught us: it only pays to break the law if you're the first one to get a deal. All these WaMu department heads and VPs will be eying each other with suspicion when they pass in the halls. You better believe the smarter of these guys saved all the memos, presentations, and emails for a rainy day.
Looks like a nor'easter is brewing.
there are probably a dozen execs at WaMu lining up to give evidence in exchange for immunity.
What about those that got laid off at CW, Wa Mu, ...?
It's "Ciao!" Are there no Italians here to set the record straight?
BD is right - it's supposed to be 'chow'... as in 'Do lunch, right'?
Anyway Cuomo is occupied & doesn't have time to correct my spelling.
Either WaMu's internally-generated appraisals on the pre-April 2006 OAs are just as wretched as the ones it got from EA, in which case they just got cheaper (because outsouced) bad appraisals, or WaMu's internally-generated appraisals were better than EAs, in which case those loans with the biggest neg am balances (the oldest ones) had the best appraisals.
Yep, your OA post is still valid. Drumming up bogus numbers is a separate issue.
You don't like my Hollywood translation? See if I ever invite YOU to any parties...
hey! i want to come to your parties. i'll even bring good chow. will spam do?
have your people call my people. ciao.
Tanta-
Did you ever think you'd see the day when banks were anxious to make bad loans, and working hard to do it?
You know, my post yesterday wasn't really an attempt to defend WaMu's lending practices or OAs.
The fact is, if there is cold hard evidence that WaMu was shopping for inflated appraisals in 2006-2007, then there's excellent reason for the regulators to force them to go back through all 262,000 loans and "classify" the ones with bogus appraisals. That will force reserves up, because, as I argued yesterday, you do have to reserve more for "classified" loans.
But, as MOM says, if there's "deniability" regarding the pre-April 2006 appraisals, then this doesn't affect them.
Jas, I'm really surprised a guy who walks away from csco is playing the puts, when you should be liquid enough to be short outright and not have to worry about time premium and such.
OT, following up on the Jimmy Cayne story from last night we have this from Minyanville:
"Minyanville has compiled the following list of handy Bear Stearns pot-laced quips for your usage. Use them on your friends at Bear. Or just cut and past them into IM if it's easier.
Bear Stearns Announces Stock Spliff!
Cayne to Leave Bear Stearns After End of Quarter... Bag
Bear Stearns' Cayne Says Credit Markets Returning to NORML
Dude, Where's My CEO?
Thai Skunk Downgraded at Bear Stearns; Master Kush KC33 Raised to Strong Buy
Bear Stearns Quarterly Yield Now 28 Bong Hits
Analysts Dazed and Confused by Bear Stearns Quarter
Bear Stearns' Cayne Pitches One Hitter, Says Will Now "Only Smoke On Weekends"
Report: Bear's Cayne Feels Like Everybody in Board Room Looking at Him
Bear Stearns Announces Half Baked Plan to Exit Subprime Mortgage Business"
have your people call my people. ciao.
I'll have them get right after it... Mr. Pancetta. harrumph
Did you ever think you'd see the day when banks were anxious to make bad loans, and working hard to do it?
Well, anybody with a couple of years or more in banking has seen some unspeakable loans get made.
The crashing irony of the thing is that in the bad old days, banks generally made bad loans locally. It was always some local developer who was best buddies with the VP of Deposit Ops, or some local builder who was deeply indebted to the bank on construction loans, so making the terrible take-out loans for the homebuyers was an exercise in moving bad debt from the commercial side to the residential RE side. Stuff like that.
Wide-scale intentional origination of trashy loans for one's own investment portfolio, without even the excuse of local politics and insider self-dealing? Beggars the imagination, doesn't it? Especially if you assume that WaMu securitized the best of the lot.
No way, I refuse to believe anything like this was happening.
Greenspan told us that house prices were rising because of immigration. And, big ben said there is no housing bubble and the rest of the world was saving too much making housing more valuable.
Can these two titans of finance and integrity possibly be wrong? or just pulling %^%# out of there asses to lull bulls? I think not.
The only lesson that most companies learned from Spitzer's Wall St. investigations was to DELETE ALL EMAILS (and save the damning conversations for the office watercooler or the local brothel; not for something that could potentially be saved)
It's sad to see that these guys didn't even learn that lesson...
Tanta,
Do you expect going forward more pressure on appraisers to "deflate" values or at least be more defensive than they are now? - Or is it all a matter of what gets accepted by investors at securitization (where we already see reduced risk appetite)?
O-Joe
Jas still has a fear (well justified in my mind) that the market will not reflect reality any time soon. The biggest lesson of the tech crash was that things take longer than you can believe, and that margin calls hurt when stuff barrels still higher before hurtling off a cliff. Check out CROX for a beauty of an example.
I still have the attitude that we will be printing at warp speed soon to keep the leaky boat afloat. BB proved that once again yesterday- Heonig has started worrying about the dollar, so we are probably done with drops unless some really big fish float to the surface and begin to stink. I note that nobody over $10 billion has gone under yet;-}
Someday this war's gonna end...
Unfortunately lune, the Whitehouse seems to have been paying attention to the email deletion mantra.
CNN.com - Page not found
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- A U.S. magistrate on Friday rejected arguments by the Bush administration and urged a federal judge to order the White House to preserve copies of all its e-mails.
U.S. Magistrate Judge John M. Facciola said it is necessary to hold out the threat of a contempt-of-court citation to ensure that White House personnel safeguard backup tapes of electronic messages that may have been deleted.
Whether to issue the order is up to U.S. District Judge Henry Kennedy.
The Bush administration has 10 days to say why Kennedy should not order preservation of electronic communications by White House officials and aides.
Kennedy had referred the issue to the magistrate for a recommendation.
Facciola's report to the judge stems from a controversy dating back nearly two years over missing White House e-mails.
..."
So, does having "Risk Management, Mortgage Industry, 2005-2007" on your resume the sign of a crook, or the sign of poor cassandra?
I'll have them get right after it... Mr. Pancetta. harrumph
that's doctor mr. pancetta, if you don't mind.
bristles in his britches
I just got off the phone with an Appraiser friend after giving him the Link to this article.He HATES E-Appraise it with a passion,and hasn't had a job from WAMU since late 2005.Like a lot of honest Appraisers,he has been struggling because you don't get the Biz if you won't hit the number.I expect he might be picking up some Appraisal reviews soon...I wonder If the folks at First american were trying to upstage Bush,admitting to 262,000 felonies is up there with the FISA violations...
Do you expect going forward more pressure on appraisers to "deflate" values or at least be more defensive than they are now?
These suckers are in a real hard place... because they not only have to worry about pressure to inflate assessments... they have boomers inheriting property from the 'greatest generation' and pressuring for deflated assessments... so as to minimize estate taxes (state if not federal).
We are trying to gift some land to the state (for conservation) and getting an appraisal has been like pulling teeth. Because its an estate gift the appraisal firms are scared s-less... fearing they too will be drawn into a state-estate tax contest.
They are completely gun shy... Must have thought this would be a low stress way to make a big bucks. Ain't no such thing - if there is big money in something, stress will find it.
"I remember when they said hybrids wouldn't make sense unless gas was $3.00 a gallon. Hmmm."
In some ways they still may not make sense at that price, and I say that as a hybrid owner. The high-mileage hybrids: what they don't say is that you have to drive them very conservatively to get that great mileage. If you drive them like a typical gas-pump-stompin' Amurrican, the differential decreases. How many are willing to do that, even at $3/gallon?
Of course if gas goes to $6/gallon everyone will want one and they'll happily drive their hybrids as if they were 80-year-old grannies. For me, a hybrid is just an insurance policy against high prices, rationing, or worse.
Per today's WSJ :
"State prosecutors say they can't charge or subpoena the bank [Wamu] because it is federally regulated".
I bet a plane load of examiners is on their way to Wamu's Seattle headquarters as we blog. The regulators can apply criminal sanctions when warranted.
Do you expect going forward more pressure on appraisers to "deflate" values or at least be more defensive than they are now?
Short answer, no. It's not that direct.
What happens first (and is already happening) is that maximum LTVs come down. You say to yourself, well shit, if all these appraisals are garbage, then I'm not going to lend more than 90% of value instead of 100% of value. That works out for a few days or so, until you find evidence that appraisals are still being inflated to hit the 90% number. So you contract further. Lather, rinse, repeat.
This goes on until you have a full-blown credit crunch, massive floods of REO, and therefore sales prices "reset" to sane by fire sales. Now the appraisers have a bunch of new numbers (closed sales) to work with. Eventually, everybody starts upping LTVs incrementally again, appraised values start creeping back up, and in a decade or so we go through the whole freaking mess again.
Nothing will change until appraisal due diligence/review practices change, along with industry commission structures, as far as I'm concerned. Until you cut the spiff you pay the mortgage salespeople and spend it on appraisal review, you're stuck in the dynamic forever.
And when a "reputable" national bank like WaMu can get away with outsourcing its appraisal function to some outfit like EA, we are not in the cultural environment in which you can expect voluntary upping of appraisal review expenses. Of course, it does sound like WaMu just gave OTS a major stick to beat it with . . .
As dryfly notes, consumers have to want honest appraisals, too. Until we can convince people that inflated appraisals are not helping them any, there's not much political will for forcing this situation to change.
At the old vehicle prices and compared to the then available competition for those hybrids that were subsidized by the manufacturers $3 gas made sense. Things change. With increases in conventional vehicle mpg and reduced subsidy it is now closer to $4 gas where hybrids make TCO sense. With more hybrids and a body of knowledge the cost to mfg is coming down which helps but perversely the demand curve shift makes it possible to pick up a gas guzzler cheap and thus negate any fuel economy advantage.
Tanta, your appraisal reset scenario doesn't work until REOs become such a large part of total sales that appraisers are forced to use them for comps.
OT, following up on the Jimmy Cayne story from last night
Yeah, smoking pot was bad,he should of been smoking crack like the rest of them.
More news,
Moody's and other bond rating firms colluded with IB's to rate toxicd CDO's AAA.
More breaking news later.
Cheers,
Of course if gas goes to $6/gallon everyone will want one and they'll happily drive their hybrids as if they were 80-year-old grannies.
Hybrids don't work for rural and far flung ex-urbans... folks who don't do a lot of short haul start-n-stop.
They are ass kick for suburban short haul commuters who mostly do start-n-stop (think of your typical congested freeway at RH).
They also aren't so hot for urban high density dwellers since they have mass transit available to them (and can rent a 'real car' for the occasional jaunt to the 'wilderness').
In short they really aren't much of a solution to the real problems we face - but a great marketing ploy.
Where I think hybrids will rock is for the power plants in city buses, delivery vehicles and such. They will employ clean burning diesels-electric hybrids and be quite efficient & surprisingly clean.
Senior' Blumenthal (CT) jumping on this?
"Hybrids don't work for rural and far flung ex-urbans... folks who don't do a lot of short haul start-n-stop."
While I'm mainly a short-haul kinda guy, my hybrid routinely gets 51-52 mpg on 120 mile trips that involve traversing a couple of 1500-2000-ft mountain passes. And that's with the AC on. But you have to drive it like Grandma.
I do, however, agree with your central point: they aren't really society's answer. Come $6/gallon gas, though, they might be my answer.
More breaking news later.
Ya I s'pose next we'll learn bankers 'n brokers still fall to earth from ledges in the presence of GRAVITY.
The world truly is a wonder.
I own a Honda Accord Hybrid V6 and under worst heavy traffic I get
23 MPG. On a trip to Vegas from LA
I got 33MPG. I love the car and hope that
congress makes it mandatory that all cars be Hybrid.
By the way 0-60 in 7 seconds( actual not printed BS in car mags). I have BMW's for lunch.
Investors are pulling BPOs (broker price opinions - where a realtor looks at recent sales and comes up with a value) and using these to discredit appraisals. It's a bit tragic that a licensed profession has become so comprimised as to allow this to happen.
Tanta on the 2 wamu scenarios, the latter is the more correct one IMO....
the older internal appraisals are the better ones... the ones with the biggest neg amort currently.
While I'm mainly a short-haul kinda guy, my hybrid routinely gets 51-52 mpg on 120 mile trips that involve traversing a couple of 1500-2000-ft mountain passes. And that's with the AC on. But you have to drive it like Grandma.
I drive Jetta turbo diesels w/ manual transmissions at 70-80 mph into prairie wind - punching it like the straight away at Daytona when passing farm vehicles... All of it with AC on and sun roof cracked... and I still get almost 50 mpg. If I drive like grandma I get slightly better than 50 mpg... screw grandma.
That has been my solution. I think it beats hybrids flat EXCEPT for start-n-stop. Diesels want to run, run, run. Star-n-stop, not so much. But that's not a problem out here on the prairie.
Tanta, your appraisal reset scenario doesn't work until REOs become such a large part of total sales that appraisers are forced to use them for comps.
Actually, the way it works is that the only appraisal assignment anyone is getting is to appraise REO, because those are the only happenin' kind of sales. You can use other REO for REO comps.
When the desperate sellers start listing for less than or the same as the REO, it won't matter.
This is going to be tougher to prove/ litigate than you think.
It's one thing to say we want inflated apprraisals, it's another thing to prove it happend, loan by loan, and that the borrower was injured...
And I love the typical financial scandal scape goat, witch hunt by another NY gov't employed Shyster looking to climb the slimmy political ladder. Yeah wow, EAppraieIT. Look at the biggi' I caught Maw!
In other news, no one at the IB's has had a Club Fed vacation in a VERY long time. Encon had quite a bit of help from War Shriek IB's setting up those off balance sheet entities. GRRRRR! I could go on but what's the point.
Cheers,
Dryfly,
All well and good but be honest. 50 mpg diesel is "only" 43 mpg gasoline. [For the non-technonerdians; diesel has 15% more energy per gallon.]
FWIW, the mileage advantage has been much greater for highway than city driving with my 2002 Civic hybrid, contrary to the early publicity. The hybrid is also quieter and heavier than an ordinary Civic, which makes it feel like a larger, more expensive car.
At the time I bought it the price was $20,000. The cost disadvantage calculation only works if you buy something significantly cheaper than $20,000, which rules out all but the cheapest new cars. Most people I know who have considered buying hybrids were not really considering a Hyundai Accent as the other alternative.
The cost differential is apparently even greater for used hybrids vs. other used cars, but that should tell you something about relative satisfaction with the car after purchase.
i'll even bring good chow. will spam do?
have your people call my people. ciao.
bacon dreamz
Spam? Ouch! You have to bring this or you better look into a name change.
OT
Fed Pumps $41B Into US Financial System
Expired
It's one thing to say we want inflated apprraisals, it's another thing to prove it happend, loan by loan, and that the borrower was injured...
He's probably going to try and prove 'the state' or even 'the public' was injured via the cost of foreclosures & such.
And if they show it was an ongoing 'process' they won't have to prove it loan by loan.
Revisit the tobacco cases - they didn't win because they showed each person died due to smoking - they proved it was an ongoing conspiracy sanctioned at the top and resulting in tangible damages to the 'state'.
This is initially more difficult to prove but actually easier to win in the end IF discovery backs up the 'conspiracy' meme. I bet it does.
Gentleman start your shredders... oh wait, too late for that? Oh well, cop a plea then instead.
I'll second dryfly's endorsement of hybrid buses and delivery vehicles. I have a college friend that is now a Civil Engineering Prof specializing in transportation (analyzing traffic flows, metering and sensors). He saying that what should be really interesting are when they apply hybrid technology to semi-trucks. If you separate the electrical generation from the electromotive driving wheels (think diesel trains) you can do electric handling and braking control systems and each trailer can have it's own set of driving wheels. All the rig has to do is provide electrical power and you can size it for the job and the cheapest fuel source available. You could also use small "tug" vehicle with a generator attached to move trailers around the yard and to local destinations.
The other big change will be the intelligent highway systems currently being designed (WiFi Plus Highway info/traffic flow/crash avoidance for the road).
If USD keep falling, and hits 90-cents CAD ... they can sell all the Florida REO's to the Canadians that will be invading this winter.
"OT
Fed Pumps $41B Into US Financial System
Expired? .v=2
eltyra"
The problem with this is that the lazy press never subtracts out the repos that are simply being rolled over. Till I know that this is a yawner.
In other news it's almost noon in So-Cal and I'm getting hungry.
Cheers,
Tanta - I agreed with your point regarding the accounting standards. But I also agree with Weil's concern, even though it's misdirected in its specifics.
I believe we are talking major regulatory failure. Guidelines for appraisals mandate independence. The banks I work for have to have board-approved appraisers and independent review for out of area appraisals. Does ANYONE believe that this WaMu arrangement meets that standard? The reason for having an in-house staff is that their interest is your interest. They do not need to hit the number to get your money!
When you are writing high numbers of loans with these risk factors and you go light on appraisals, you've completely screwed up your calculations for MI purposes as well.
I do believe that WaMu's earlier appraisals were of higher quality. But some of these suckers rolled over after recast, and my immediate reaction when I read the appraiser's post on Piggington was that the need to hit the numbers might account for the move.
Forgive the irate tone. I've been reviewing MBS remittance reports and docs, and I can only read so much of this crap without feeling the need to strip off my clothes, paint myself red and run through the center of town screaming "Run For Your LIVES!"
Continuing OT: I drove an 88 Saab 9000 Turbo and would consistantly get 33 Mpg on the freeway at 70 mph. Now this is a 1988 fullsize car that was heavy. I drove it until the little pieces of plastic got brittle that it was becoming a headache. Almost 300K miles and it ran like new.
Speaking of REOs, there are a couple of REO-specialist brokers across the street from the place where we eat breakfast three times a week. Business is not good.
Out of about 40 REO listings in the window over the past two or three months, two have been marked sold. Most of the rest have been marked down one or more times from the original ask. These are most of them marginal properties, probably from true sub-prime loans. A very few are top-of-the-line mini-manses, and those are the ones that have been selling.
I bought the Hybrid car because I'd
rather give my money to Honda as oppossed to war-mongering, murderous,
oil companies. Long term, it is cheaper.
"He's probably going to try and prove 'the state' or even 'the public' was injured via the cost of foreclosures & such.
And if they show it was an ongoing 'process' they won't have to prove it loan by loan."
Love to see how he makes that connection.
Since appraising is an opinion not a science, you will be hard pressed to prove fraud unless the comps were actually non-existent.
MOM,
"I believe we are talking major regulatory failure."
Nope, worked just the way it was intended by the Powers That Be on War Shreik. That is, the Regulators provide cover for the fraud going on behind the sceenes by publicly saying "Nothing to see here, move along". Now the regulators will work with their bosses, the regulated, and come up with necessary rule changes to help sweep it under the rug during the bail out.
"I can only read so much of this crap without feeling the need to strip off my clothes, paint myself red and run through the center of town screaming "Run For Your LIVES!"
ROTFL!
Cheers,
... and First American's lead economist, Christopher Cagan Ph.D., for several years now has been propping up the housing markets by arguing the fundamentals have justified the rise in home price... Another NAR's DL.
"believe we are talking major regulatory failure. Guidelines for appraisals mandate independence. The banks I work for have to have board-approved appraisers and independent review for out of area appraisals. Does ANYONE believe that this WaMu arrangement meets that standard? The reason for having an in-house staff is that their interest is your interest. They do not need to hit the number to get your money!"
Yes, but some would argue the point that managing your own appraisal department is the furthest thing from an independent and unbiased arrangement.
It's sort of like managing your own underwriting
Re: Appraisers hitting the numbers or not being invited back...same thing has happened in the arbitration business
Consumer advocates slam credit-card arbitration | csmonitor.com
Remember, the customer is always right.
RE:
Fed Pumps $41B Into US Financial System
eltyra
Nope they didn't. Usually on Thursday you have 7 day, 14 day and the usual 1 day expiring repos ( repurchases ). These are transactions done 7, 14 days ago and replacing them is just maintaining the status quo - no adding/removing, just maintaining. And that's what they did - in fact there was 42.5B expiring today so net, net, they actually WITHDREW 1.5B. A site that keeps track of this is:
The Slosh Report
I've desk checked a few of their numbers and they've stacked in the past and once you regularly keep an eye on it, there's a certain easily followable rhythm to it.
Yeah, I know how the Fed spokesperson phrased it in that yahoo link but you really gonna believe that bunch ?
-K
car mileage... 13 years ago I bought a Saturn SL1. It's rapidly approaching 200,000 miles. On my regular commute (about a 50-50 split highway/stop-and-go, NOT driving like granny) I get less than 30 mpg, I know something is wrong.
Question for anyone who might know the answer to this.
Assessed values where I live are based on "Fair Market Value" which relies heavily on comps. The assessed value of my house has increased dramatically the past few years and as a result my taxes have gone up quite a bit as well. For example they (county assessor)have a fair market value of $552k in 2007 and a fmv of $650k in 2009!!!
Could an argument be made that comps were overinflated via the actions of WAMU/First American/Eppraiser and if so are there any attorneys willing to start a class action....
Said tongue in cheek but not really...
And this is shocking...next someone might say Oil shot up to $96 a barrel this morning...Oh thats right it did ....nothing to see here move on.
Producer, at least the appraisers are paid regardless of whether they hit the number or not.
The truth is that no one can prevent an institution from committing suicide, but regulators can cut the losses to the taxpayers. I hope that WaMu does not fall into that category, but their fate is now going to be determined by home prices rather than their own actions.
The risk of making an internal appraisal department hit the numbers is that any one of those employees can tip off the regulators. It's a very dangerous thing to do because it comes straight back to you. If internal appraisals are managed independently from those who write the loans, it's pretty effective.
"I've desk checked a few of their numbers and they've stacked in the past and once you regularly keep an eye on it, there's a certain easily followable rhythm to it.
Yeah, I know how the Fed spokesperson phrased it in that yahoo link but you really gonna believe that bunch ?
-K
sk"
As I thought sk. More happy Bull (sh*t) to keep the markets all bubbly.
Cheers,
Where I think hybrids will rock is for the power plants in city buses, delivery vehicles and such. They will employ clean burning diesels-electric hybrids and be quite efficient & surprisingly clean.
Postal carriers on suburban or rural routes. Lots of stops (100-200 each per day). A postmaster told me that for each 1-cent increase in the cost of fuel, it costs USPS $7MM.
Where is that little pump monkey Sebastian to explain all of this?
LMFAO!!!
The NY AG is visiting these blogs right now (from my IP hits)
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!
So is First American - HI
for some reason i can't help but think back to the cash-out vs purchase money risk-modeling problems of yore...wait, what does "yore" mean?
Since appraising is an opinion not a science, you will be hard pressed to prove fraud unless the comps were actually non-existent.
They won't have to. They show the intent was to defraud & cover up not that an actual loan was fraudulent. They show that via the email trail assuming (as the article suggests) it exists.
All they will have to do is show a few were CLEARLY fraudulent and that there was a process sanctioned from on high to make this happen. Even if the defense shows many others were not they will be faced with the paper trail showing management intent and a few examples with comps to back it up... tough to defend.
The key question is what do the emails say & how damning are they.
Producer, why do you think anyone has to prove harm to an individual borrower, or even a group of borrowers? The alleged conduct here is a violation of FIRREA. I don't recall anything in FIRREA hinging on proof of harm to any individual. The basis here seems to be collusion in violating federal regulations. The "harm to consumer" stuff is the AG's rhetorical flourish.
MOM, the trouble is that having staff appraisers only works if you're a local lender. You get no argument from me that it's the best way to manage appraisal risk, but how do you have 800 lb gorilla national lenders working with 8,000 brokers in 50 states without using fee appraisers? Whatsamadda, you hate capitalizm or something?
I'd say you need to give up the remittance reports and open up the Scotch. You might still lose your head, but you'll enjoy it more.
pump monkey Sebastian
The NY AG is visiting these blogs right now (from my IP hits)
HI, GUYS! CAN YOU DO ANYTHING ABOUT NAR'S PRESS RELEASES? WE THINK THOSE SHOULD BE ILLEGAL, TOO. THANKS!
"The alleged conduct here is a violation of FIRREA. I don't recall anything in FIRREA hinging on proof of harm to any individual. The basis here seems to be collusion in violating federal regulations. The "harm to consumer" stuff is the AG's rhetorical flourish."
I understand that and I am not trying to be combative but I do not see anything here where anyone asked anyone to commit fraud, just to bring in favorable values -- which you can do as long as your opinion is based on real and true factors.
I do not see where he is suing for FIRREA violations, but for conspiracy to inflate values to the extent that it caused damage to the borrowers economic situation - foreclosure.
Producer, please double check the press release. Cuomo is suing for violation of state and federal regulations, not on behalf of home buyers. Under the law of most states, home buyers are not even entitled to rely on an appraisal that was done for the benefit of the lender.
Tanta, I know you've posted before on AVMs. Do you feel they've ever been worth anything to help determine collateral value? Do you think they have a future use?
pump monkey Sebastian
Has a nice ring to it.
OT
Why was CROX up that high anyway?
They are shoes...with holes in them!!!
"Where I think hybrids will rock is for the power plants in city buses, delivery vehicles and such. They will employ clean burning diesels-electric hybrids and be quite efficient & surprisingly clean."
I am a ASE Master tech for a well known multinational. Don't worry you have heard of us. We are currently running diesel/electric hybrids for pick up and delivery.
They do not work.
Well,o.k.,they work,but the milage increase is so tiny over the latest common rail/high boost diesels it would take us like 50 years to recoup the costs.
This test has been ongoing for 2 years. I will not even get into all the other related problems.
Hey,but the good news is i have never put brake pads on em...
I personally believe for short distance we will gradually move to 100% electric.
Chris
P.S.- I drive a 06 Vette and get damn near 30 interstate/20 city with it. I have a lead foot also...
WaMu Suspending Relationship with eAppraiseIT
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE:WM). We are surprised and disappointed by the allegations in the complaint related to eAppraiseIT. We are suspending our relationship with eAppraiseIT until we can further investigate the situation. We have absolutely no incentive to have appraisers inflate home values. In fact, inflated appraisals are contrary to our interests. We use third-party appraisal companies to make sure that appraisals are objective and accurate.
We have no further comment at this time.
News
All well and good but be honest. 50 mpg diesel is "only" 43 mpg gasoline. [For the non-technonerdians; diesel has 15% more energy per gallon.]
Bob that's a PLUS for diesel not a minus. Diesel fuel 'costs less' to produce from an inputs basis than gasoline... it is a low draw off the fractionation process. Because it's lower down they don't have to reboil as much and so requires less energy to separate.
The current price is higher because of the recent low sulfer reqs AND lack of processing capacity. That will reverse eventually.
Plus as crude gets cruddier (as light sweet gets scarcer) it is even better - way more heavy and less light draws in the feedstock, advantage diesel. They will still have to crack but not as much.
Too bad they haven't figured out how to directly pour & burn 'coke' and we'd have it made...
And if they ever get better low cost super materials they could someday run 'adiabatic diesel' - run hot as hell with no radiator. That gives you something like 30% MORE efficiency. NOX issues but that too is probably solvable.
You can't run gasoline like that - pre-ignites, in effect 'diesels'.
Okay back on topic, to crooks and fraudsters...
"Producer, please double check the press release. Cuomo is suing for violation of state and federal regulations, not on behalf of home buyers. Under the law of most states, home buyers are not even entitled to rely on an appraisal that was done for the benefit of the lender."
Oh, ok I will re-check.
Thanks.
E-Appraiseit! sued Pam Crowley for Defamation earlier this year seeking injunctive relief,and Anthony Merlo,President of E-appraiseit! testified.There is a pdf file of the deposition by Merlo at Pam's website "MortgageFraudWatchlist" for those with a taste for cheap humor.
===========================
As I thought sk. More happy Bull (sh*t) to keep the markets all bubbly.
Cheers,
Misean
Well, feeling less angst, a little more flush ( CROX became a CROCK yayyy and I didn't have to suffer the strum and drang to anything like the length of time that KrispyKreme did ), and since this is a new hobby horse of mine, I emailed the AP reporter of the story with the details and suggested a correction.
Telling reporters, POLITELY, about this sort of stuff CAN work - Last year I got so pissed with the way the +/- range and lack of statistical significance to the MoM home sales number out of the census.gov was being reported in the MSM, I sent out a few emails pointing it out - seemed to have worked too - I saw the statistical caveats turn up on CNBC amongst other places !
-K
If USD keep falling, and hits 90-cents CAD ... they can sell all the Florida REO's to the Canadians that will be invading this winter.
Call me when Florida stops fisting out of state owners on property tax. This Canuck wouldn't buy anything in Florida, even a REO, for even 30 cents on the dollar until the citizens elect a legislature who will end the rape of non-Floridians.
Until then, they can keep their depreciating "assets".
I do not see where he is suing for FIRREA violations,
Well, the article says "Attorney General Cuomos investigation uncovered a series of e-mails between executives at EA, First American, and WaMu that show EA officials were willingly violating state and federal appraisal independence regulations."
What federal reg besides FIRREA do you think they've got in mind?
just to bring in favorable values IS a violation of FIRREA (as in USPAP, the standards authorized by the law).
"The State sues to redress injury to the State, and to its general
economy and residents, as well as on behalf of: (1) persons who obtained mortgages, home
equity loans, or refinanced their homes with WaMu and as to whose homes eAppraiseIT
conducted the real estate appraisal; and (2) persons who bought WaMu loans secured by
mortgages that were improperly appraised by defendants. The State seeks disgorgement,
restitution, damages including costs, and equitable relief with respect to defendants fraudulent,
deceptive, and otherwise unlawful conduct.
FACTUAL ALLEGATIONS
I. The Real Estate Mortgage Industry
A. Background
12. Most people interested in purchasing or refinancing a home (borrowers) seek a
financial institution (a lender) to lend them money on the most favorable repayment terms
available. Traditionally the lender, as part of agreeing to loan the funds, wanted to ensure that
the borrower was able to repay the loan and that the loan was adequately collateralized in case"
So they are suing for injury to specific homeowners and disengorgement.
Too much Cuomo going on here...
--
"Jas, I'm really surprised a guy who walks away from csco is playing the puts, when you should be liquid enough to be short outright and not have to worry about time premium and such."
confused,
Shorting is a tricky game. I have learned to do both. I sell some naked calls too. Use all the tools at your disposal.
I have been doing LEAPS, long as well as short, since they were first introduced in late 1980s. I have discovered that I am not good at timing the turns in the stocks, or the indexes, and LEAPS give one time. My target for long-term puts is 10X from their lows (they were at a loss six months ago) and I think that that goal would be exceeded.
Jas
Lawsuit filed against CFC 10/31 alleging securities fraud in connection with Series A and B Senior Convertible Debentures. Unfortunately, I don't have a link, but I'm sure someone here can provide.
The NY AG is visiting these blogs right now (from my IP hits)
Etslay eepkay ethay otpay eferencesray onway ethay ownday-olay
I personally believe for short distance we will gradually move to 100% electric.
You could be right on that. The problem is the batteries - you can carry a load or you can carry the batteries but not both. If they get that solved then electric rocks.
Plus you still have to generate the electricity somewhere - west coast people just LOVE electric... their pollution falls in New England and Canada. They might not love it so much when its used to make Beijing 'clean'.
And the trouble with fuel cells is also the 'fuel'. How do you make enough hydrogen? No clean way to get there soon either.
That is why HB-diesel makes sense IF the vehicles are appropriately engineered (not just slapping jerry-rig compromises onto existing platforms). The electromotive example Andrew pointed out has real promise.
Your source seems to have some additional details. The press release CR posted says this:
"Attorney General Cuomos lawsuit seeks to end the illegal relationship between First American and EA and WaMu. It also seeks penalties and disgorgement from First American and EA. The lawsuit alleges that First American and EA violated appraiser independence laws, which regulate the conduct of real estate appraisers."
I am not a New York lawyer, but I will be surprised if Cuomo can extend this to get any recovery for home buyers except in very unusual circumstances.
Here's the text of the release re: CFC:
Entwistle & Cappucci LLP and Susman Godfrey LLP Announce Class Action Lawsuit Against Countrywide Financial Corporation
11:08a ET October 31, 2007 (Business Wire)
Pursuant to Section 21(D)(a)(3)(A)(i) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), Entwistle & Cappucci LLP ("Entwistle & Cappucci") (http://www.entwistle-law.com), a prominent New York law firm with a specialty in complex securities litigation, and Susman Godfrey LLP ("Susman Godfrey"), a nationally prominent firm with a specialty in complex commercial litigation, hereby give notice that they have filed a class action complaint for violations of the federal securities laws and California state law against Countrywide Financial Corporation ("Countrywide" or the "Company") (NYSE:CFC), Angelo R. Mozilo, David Sambol and Eric P. Sieracki in the United States District Court for the Central District of California, Western Division. The lawsuit is brought on behalf of all persons or entities who purchased Countrywide Financial Corporation Series A Floating Rate Convertible Senior Debentures Due 2037 (the "Series A Debentures") and/or Countrywide Financial Corporation Series B Floating Rate Convertible Senior Debentures Due 2037 (the "Series B Debentures") (collectively, the "Debentures") from May 17, 2007 through and including August 9, 2007 (the "Class Period"). No class has yet been certified in this action.
The complaint alleges that the Defendants issued a series of materially false and misleading statements and omitted material facts concerning the Company's lending practices and internal controls. In this regard, Countrywide allegedly misrepresented its position in the mortgage market by stating that the current downcycle in the housing market would actually place the Company in a "superior competitive position" based on the strength of its "capital liquidity positions, superior business model, and best in class workforce." The complaint further alleges that the Defendants falsely assured investors that Countrywide employed exacting loan underwriting and origination practices to ensure creditworthiness of loan applicants; implemented internal controls to anticipate appropriate loan loss reserves for any negative changes in the credit and housing markets; and maintained actual reserves to adequately meet such market downturns. Moreover, the complaint alleges that the Company's statements were materially false and misleading because Defendants, in fact: (i) did not follow Countrywide's reportedly strict underwriting and loan-origination practices; (ii) made a material portion of the Company's loans with little, if any, supporting documentation, such that Countrywide had no way of confirming the creditworthiness of many loan applicants; (iii) mischaracterized "low documentation" and "no documentation" loans as "prime loans;" (iv) failed to maintain adequate loan loss reserves; and (v) impro
Etslay eepkay ethay otpay eferencesray onway ethay ownday-olay
Sorry.
Hopefully they saw Tanta's NAR request!
November's not starting off so good for the financial markets.
So they are suing for injury to specific homeowners and disengorgement.
Producer, this complaint does not appear to be alleging any specific fact about any specific appraisal.
It alleges that the relationship/structure of the agreement between and among the parties violates NY and Federal law regarding appraisal independence.
(The NY law in question incorporates USPAP, so it's basically the same grounds as FIRREA.)
SK, I know you checked this out, but there's another article on the Fed $41B injection on CNN/Money. Seems they claim it came from the NY Fed in three actions. Could there be something to it?
Business, financial, personal finance news - CNNMoney.com
"...
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which carries out the central bank's open market operations, moved Thursday to inject $41 billion in temporary reserves into the U.S financial system. It was an action designed to ensure that the markets - which have suffered through a period of turbulence over the last few months - functions smoothly. The cash infusion came in three separate operations.
..."
Separately, dryfly, I've been hearing rumors that some car makers have been looking at "gas diesels" recently (GM?). Gas engines that use direct injection like true diesels and can take advantage of the higher compression ratios for improved efficiency over a pure gasoline engine, while running on the more available and cleaner burning gasoline. Oh, and a problem with most adiabatic engines I've heard of is that they tend to require use of high temp ceramics (as opposed to aluminum or iron) so as not to melt.
Etslay eepkay ethay otpay eferencesray onway ethay ownday-olay
BONGWATER. THEY WERE DRINKING BONGWATER, MR. CUOMO. WE INSIST YOU INDICT WAMU FOR DRINKING BONGWATER.
Tanta - but if you have staff appraisers, they do the review as well. Can't let the loan officers do it.
Scotch is out. This ain't SF and I'm middle-aged, I can't afford to find myself doing a Lady Godiva in the Deep South. Even if I didn't get arrested someone would take pictures.
"HI, GUYS! CAN YOU DO ANYTHING ABOUT NAR'S PRESS RELEASES? WE THINK THOSE SHOULD BE ILLEGAL, TOO. THANKS!"
LOL. Might be a lawsuit about those one day, too. It's nice to know that at least there's a litigation boom in the works. One growth industry we can count on, I guess.
money to Honda as oppossed to war-mongering, murderous,
oil companies. Long term, it is cheaper.
because honda's arguably a better car, not because your necessarily saving that much fuel
Predictably, the Seattle PI has the story on its front page, but the Seattle Times has it on their business page. Here's the PI link:
"WaMu accused of strong-arming appraisers to inflate home values"
WaMu faulted on home loans
Oh, and a problem with most adiabatic engines I've heard of is that they tend to require use of high temp ceramics (as opposed to aluminum or iron) so as not to melt.
Yup - advanced materials is the key. But that's either a problem or an opportunity - depending if you're with the folks thinking up the solution or paying sufferin' with the problem.
I wonder if any of those laid off RE agents in Cali know anything about ceramics or cermet composites? I've got it from reliable sources that some of them know all about bio-materials, especially 'implants'. One can only hope.
"That is why HB-diesel makes sense IF the vehicles are appropriately engineered (not just slapping jerry-rig compromises onto existing platforms). The electromotive example Andrew pointed out has real promise."
Dryfly,
The said trucks were the latest in technology and actually bought in volume. Heck reading your posts i am going to bet you work with a lot of the suppliers of the components. I actually had huge hopes that they would save us money/fuel.
A basic 16k gvw truck is running about 60k. We average 12-13 mpg on the 06's. I heard a rumor the hybrids were just north of a 100k. The last download i did showed 13.6 mpg. Same types of usage.
Most people do not understand how efficient most newer engines are...
Chris
dryfly - "The problem is the batteries - you can carry a load or you can carry the batteries but not both. If they get that solved then electric rocks."
The train history my Civil Engineering Prof friend tried to beat into me is coming back to haunt me it seems. Most times in the past (trains and trollys) this was solved by not using batteries and picking up power from beside the road way or from overhead lines. In the olden days trolly companies used to strap on gas generators to move their cars over rail lines that didn't have power available, making them look functionally just like hybrids or electromotive diesel trains.
Having worked at Honeywell for my sins in the past, I also know that there are also extremely funky things that can be done with electric control systems and control laws. Honeywell just did them for things like fighters and rockets. However, the concept is valid and even currently being used in the "electronic stability control" features of modern cars (just not directly and mainly via the anti-lock brakes and electronic control of the gas engine). Want a sports car (Tesla) or grocery getter that is faster than gas and can out corner/drive better than you? Make it an electric all-wheel drive.
Andrew at Honeywell? Our paths probably crossed... I was the geeky looking engineer trying to look 'salesmanlyish' in the lobby. I'm sure I was the only one that ever fit THAT description.
Cobradriver - what is the duty-cycle for these vehicles? 5 miles between stops, lots of idling, etc.? Thanks.
I hope the evildoers receive their just rewards.
But we should never forget that Andrew Cuomo is an acorn that fell far from his dad's tree. He's a ruthlessly ambitious publicity hound with a jaundiced eye on the White House.
He's a snake, but snakes ain't all bad--sometimes they catch rats!
"A basic 16k gvw truck is running about 60k. We average 12-13 mpg on the 06's. I heard a rumor the hybrids were just north of a 100k. The last download i did showed 13.6 mpg. Same types of usage. Most people do not understand how efficient most newer engines are..." - Chris
Chris, that has always been a problem with technology. As dryfly will probably attest, in many cases it is not that we can/can't do something technically. It is really more of a cost/effectiveness issue. There's an old saying that farmers usually painted barns red because that was the cheapest paint and red was the cheapest paint because the hardware people sold so much of it.
dryfly, you're right about diesels in the city. My Golf TDI gets horrible mileage unless I go out of town (I live in LA).
Then again, I am using way less oil than any other driver on the road... I run on biodiesel!
--Andrew | 11.01.07 - 4:02 pm |,
Gas Direct Injection. I really have not kept up with this technology much and i really need to. We have reached the limit of pulse width control on the current range of electronic injectors.
The current high pressure diesel injectors run upwards of 30k psi(Not a typo!) These can be modulated multiple times per firing cycle. It gives incredible control of the fuel curve with very little waste.
My understanding was OEM's wish to use this technology to get much better control of the gasoline fueling cycle.
Off to google !!
Chris
=================
re: Andrew
but there's another article on the Fed $41B injection on CNN/Money. Seems they claim it came from the NY Fed in three actions. Could there be something to it?
The CNN story is the same AP news story that was in the biz.yahoo link. I agree there were 3 actions - you can see them yourself at:
Temporary Open Market Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
And you can see that the repos were a 1day of 12B, 7day of 8B and a 14day of 21B.
To understand that, think of it as running hard to stand still - if they don't do ANOTHER 1 day repo tomorrow of 12B, today's 1 day repo will expire and that's a withdrawal of 12B. And, all other things being equal, if they don't do another repo of 8B in 7 days time, today's 7 day will expire and that would be a withdrawal of 8B.. and so on.
Similarly to see the impact of their handiwork today, you have to consider the expiration of the impact of their handiwork in the past 1 day, 7 day , 14 days.
That website I've mentioned, its not mine, keeps track of all this.
The Slosh Report
-K
Or to put that in terms relevant to the current off-topic (sorry for the thread hijack folks), we've been able to do Hybrids since approximately 1901. But they all died horrible deaths (GM's EV1 of the 1990's anyone?) until recently when they suddenly gained acceptance. Critical mass and general acceptance are key.
Yeah dryfly, Honeywell. I was the geeky looking grad student at the Camden Research Center that they were using as an Igor/lab rat for the Boeing 777 control system. They didn't let me come out into the lobby (or light) often.
F. Frederson | 11.01.07 - 4:20 pm |
Any and all types of cycles. The hybrids actually didn't do well on the 200 mile a day routes (We had to try). They actually did the best when used around town(again...duh).
Most days,100 plus starting cycles with less that 50-75 miles.
These were true diesel/generators,batteries and dual rear electric drive motors.
Should i even tell about the particulate traps that were used ??? Alot of people buying 07's are going to be in for a rude awakening when the warranty runs out...
Chris
Lawyers need this boon. Lot of lawyers out of work after tort reform laws passeed. This definitely could be the next wave. Which makes me happy.
signed,
the guy in his 3rd year of law school
WaMu to borrowers: please rip us off!
W.C. Varones Blog: You know it's gonna get stranger...
Cobradriver - thanks. Yes, that makes sense. I've read other places that serial hybrids haven't been cost effective so far in mixed cycles, but only in pure urban cycles. For parallel hybrids (like the Prius setup) in large vehicles the picture is even more mixed.
Wikipedia's page on GDI is a good starting point: Gasoline direct injection - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I have a feeling I am on thier list of appraisers that won't "play Ball". Otherwise, beyond some questionable reconsideration of value requests, EA has been pretty much above water. Now if they didn't pay slave fees, they may be a decent company.
SEC EYES GOLDMAN SACH'S GOOD FORTUNE - NYPOST.com
take a look at more corruption
"The current high pressure diesel injectors run upwards of 30k psi(Not a typo!) These can be modulated multiple times per firing cycle. It gives incredible control of the fuel curve with very little waste.
My understanding was OEM's wish to use this technology to get much better control of the gasoline fueling cycle." - Chris
It also gives them control over the engine noise and pollution output. I understand this has been where they have been making inroads on making cars like dryfly's TDI Jetta acceptable to both the public and the EPA. No more knockin' or smoking. For the record Chris I've been a car nut since highschool and an old 53 Ford flathead came my way. To my surprise I've currently got a 98 dodge truck with the Cummins diesel (inherited from brother after his wife objected - she didn't object to his TDI Jetta).
On the relative long haul efficiency of hybrids over diesels - it stands to reason, the diesels is a dedicated single mover/power source system and can be designed simpler, lighter and more efficient at constant speed than the multiple power source hybrid. The main advantage of the hybrid is the ability to scavenge, store, and reuse power in getting the vehicle moving again that would otherwise be lost to heating up the brakes. They have other advantages (like allowing the heat engine/generator to run at their most efficient speed and/or where the batteries can be precharged off the outlet before driving), but mainly they just store otherwise lost braking power like a spring would and allow you to release it again when the red light turns green, smoothing out the power demand from the heat engine.
re: Fed tomo
Temporary Open Market Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2nd item 7 day repo has 20B MBS innit
what kinda MBS ?
wooley bugger | 11.01.07 - 4:45 pm | #
wooley bugger... lol. Nice handle.
I've been waiting for some one to drop in with the handle 'bead headed nymph'... But maybe Maria Bartiromo already owns that one?
Should i even tell about the particulate traps that were used ??? Alot of people buying 07's are going to be in for a rude awakening when the warranty runs out...
Let me guess, our metal loving friends who populate this blog are gonna be 'specially happy, right?
..and EXACTLY why doesn't RICCO apply here?
He may also be referring to this in addition to the metal costs dryfly.
Diesel particulate filter - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Seems "Filters require more maintenance than catalytic converters. Engine oil ash builds up on the surface of the inlet face of the filter, and will eventually clog the pores. This increases the pressure drop over the filter, which when it reaches 100 inches of water or higher is capable of causing engine damage. Regular filter maintenance is a necessity."
In other words, you get a high tech version of the potato up the tail pipe until you replace it. Oh boy.
In other words, you get a high tech version of the potato up the tail pipe until you replace it. Oh boy.
Also explains why refineries had to 'clean up their act' wrt diesel fuel. Used to be diesel was the crudest crud you could pour & burn... so long as water wasn't included. Not any more.
Continuing OT:
"Separately, dryfly, I've been hearing rumors that some car makers have been looking at "gas diesels" recently (GM?). Gas engines that use direct injection like true diesels and can take advantage of the higher compression ratios for improved efficiency over a pure gasoline engine, while running on the more available and cleaner burning gasoline."
It's called HCCI (homogeneous charge compression ignition). It works only with a warm engine at part load, it runs as a spark ignition motor otherwise.
On diesels, I'm making 11.1 MPG as of the last report (Sterling 32K GVWR MBE 900 250 horse), fleet goal is 9.37. May not seem like much of a gap but that's 18%, or 25 gallons a week ($75.00) on the 1525 miles I run each week. Make it by running the speed limit and not idling more than necessary. A diesel might save you money versus a gas engine running 80, but keep the RPMs and the speed down and it will do even better.
Even if all the automakers switch to diesels or hybrids next year it will take years for the fleet to be replaced. Drivers can change their behavior today. But of course everyone will keep the pedal to the metal flying down the road with their yellow ribbon sticker on the trunk lid.
It's OK though, America's stupidity keeps me in a job: I deliver auto parts.
Don, that was part of the push behind the 55mph speed limit change in the 70's during the last crisis and, as I understand it, was more about aerodynamics than engine speed.
Aerodynamic drag is an exponential force, the faster you got the higher it is and it increases at an ever increasing rate. I understand WWII fighter pilots used to ask folks at home to send them cans of auto wax so that they could reduce that last Nth degree of drag and speed their planes up, increasing their chances of survival. Heck, my winter beater Jeep Cherokee will get 20 mi/gal if I keep it under 60mph on the freeway. But anything over 65 and the mileage drops like a rock and I'm lucky to get 15 mi/gal at 75mph. Don't ask about city stop and go driving. So, if you really want to increase mileage in a given vehicle, reduce your top speed and aerodynamic drag, and don't jackrabbit off the line in stop and go.
Oh, also. Each Gas and Diesel engine has a certain rpm that they are most efficient at. This is another one of the advantages of a true electromotive system (diesel train and some new hybrids). By storing energy and moderating the power demand from the heat engine, it can keep the heat engine (turbine, gas engine, diesel, etc.) running at a near constant speed and near where it is in its most efficient operating condition, regardless of how much you are jumping up and down on the pedal.
But I agree with you, the quickest way to conserve fuel and increase mileage is to change people's driving habits.
Plus $3 fuel will probably start doing that..
@Andrew. Also, you might want to look at HCCI about the "gas diesel" thing you were talking about.
Homogeneous charge compression ignition - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
About the ceramics, US ceramic companies have been trying to hit this home-run from the get-go. They run out of venture capital and fail. Or a new CEO kills off the project because it is more than a decade away from being ready.
The Japanese ceramic companies (mostly Kyocera) are working on the smaller things to get longer lasting ceramics, and selling those smaller things as they go. So they make ceramic scissors and knives, among other things to build the skill and expertise to make longer lasting ceramics.
If ceramic engine blocks are even practical (and I'm not all that certain that they will be, for starters one would need a new engine cycle as I don't believe that ceramic engines can work with Otto/Diesel cycles, perhaps the direction that HCCI is going), they will come from Japan. Because of our short attention cycles in the US, we don't engage in long term planning. And as is brutally visible in the software development industry, our longer term (longer than 1 financial quarter) planning is piss poor as well. Many people like to pretend that we have innovation in the US - we don't and we can't because it will be smothered by mismanagement.
I used to work for GM, and the understanding that I got about why the EV-1 was withdrawn from the market was that CA wanted direct electrical connections for the recharging. The EV1 used an inductive paddle.
Inductive paddles -
Pros: no chance of electrical shock if recharging in the rain
Cons: loses energy when recharging.
Direct connection -
Pros: Only resistive loss when recharging (warm wires).
Cons: Dangerous when wet. While there are waterproof electrical connectors (most of the connectors under the hood are waterproof), waterproof connectors are only rated for very few insertion/removal cycles: many of the ones under the hood of your car are only rated for 5-15 connect/disconnect cycles.
For TOMO
Total goes -$1.5b (from $48.5b)
but and that's the most important for the trend
7 days is up $2b
14 days is up $2b
The 1 month repo average is around $38b for october against $35b for sept and 24$ for Aug so the printing press is in good shape
The complaint filed today by the New York Attorney General against First American and our eAppraiseIT subsidiary has no foundation in fact or law. We are dismayed by any impact these specious allegations may have on our company, on our many employees and on our valued customer, Washington Mutual. The Attorney Generals allegations, largely based on a handful of e-mails that have been taken out of context, or mischaracterized, and an incomplete review of the facts, belie our record of compliance with applicable law. The program called into question today by the Attorney General has been vetted and approved by the federal regulator responsible for oversight of such programs. We welcome the opportunity to now present all the facts before an impartial third party. In that presentation, we will demonstrate the appropriateness of our appraisal practices in the state of New York and we will vigorously defend the reputation of Washington Mutual and the reputation we have labored more than 100 years to build.
If all Mario Jr. has is a couple of emails, then he needs to ask his mentor , Spitzer, for some advice.
Oh, heck, and I thought he was going to save us from this housing crisis.
I used to work in Risk Management for the old MCI (pre-Worldcom) and we hammered people about the emails...the stuff NEVER goes away and it'll come back like Jacob Marley.
The first freeway-legal ZEV (Zero Emissions Vehicle) being delivered to customers in the United States:
Nothing found for Time-off Local-happenings Freeway-legal-zero-emission-vehicles-are-available-in-los-angeles
the collusion is widespread in the Real estate industry.
Watch trail lawyers swoop in and attack the REIC
Talk is that pressure to force appraisers to report stable neighborhood value in declining neighborhood markets is the new ploy.
If all Mario Jr. has is a couple of emails, then he needs to ask his mentor , Spitzer, for some advice.
LOL... Producer. It's what they say or don't say, eh? And who sent them to whom.
The sad thing is that the way EA conducts business is far more reliable and above water than the product produced when mortgage brokers have ordering power of appraisals.
Dry Fly - Where do you live? I just made my last big fishing trip of the year last weekend and now it will be just reading blogs about the subprime debacle until march, except for waterfowl hunting...the pleasures of being underemployed