Contained

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“Finally — some good news for the housing market”

David Rosenberg, ML, 11/07/07:

“Finally — some good news for the housing market -- The inventory levels seem to have leveled off or even come down a tad. According to ZipRealty, the number of active listings in the 18 major cities polled fell 1.4% in October m/m. While still up 18% y/y, this is still a light at the end of the tunnel. See page D2 of the WSJ for more.”

Only for the ignorant.

Has Mr. Rosenberg checked to see that inventories for resale homes start falling some time during October because of seasonality? For example, the resale inventory in Santa Clara county fell less than for the same period in 2006 and 2005. I am sure that it is a nationwide phenomenon.

Jas

I am hearing of alot of people who are facing resets not even bothering to re-list their house. They can see the comps and forclosures in their area (or at least the realtors can) and they know that they can't refi and can't sell to cover their loan. Why bother to list?

Also, realtors aren't accepting new listing that aren't priced very low since it's a cost at this time in time and advertising.

The listing levels are comprised of a higher percentage of stressed and bank owned property.

We're seeing the bottom now. It's all roses and chocolates from here.

But Countrywide will be profitable next quarter! They said so, so it must be true.

I am sure that WaMu sinned less than some others, but its problem is that it is still here to get kicked around and blamed for the mess. Bigger sinners are either bk or (like First Franklin) part of another ship now.

Wamu should be very scared once the consumer class action starts. Jury's don't like to award "containable" verdicts.

Only for the ignorant.

Has Mr. Rosenberg checked to see that inventories for resale homes start falling some time during October because of seasonality? For example, the resale inventory in Santa Clara county fell less than for the same period in 2006 and 2005. I am sure that it is a nationwide phenomenon.

Last year Mr. Rosenberg was forcasting a hard landing for the US economy, but not until the second half of 2007.

Time will tell if he's right or not, but his forecasts have been a hell of a lot better than other bears as far as I can tell.

Fannie Mae and Freddi Mac issues are big news for several reasons.

First, their losses on loans are hidden or discounted. They don't go bankrupt like the 179 other lenders. In other words, losing $ loans are still being handed out and there are investors still willing to fund them. Problems in their house may decrease investor enthusiasm and raise rates.

The non-conforming loans have become a much larger part of the continuing business of the existing still surviving brokers. As countrywide has said, they are barely surviving on doing loans under $417,000 since their is still money to fund them. There has been a major drive to raise this limit to help in high priced markets. Who is gonna let them take on more loans when their are issues with the ones they are taking. It takes the hope away from anyone who thought Fannie and Freddi were gonna come to the rescue.

Damn, I covered my WM shorts too early. But I am still short on FNM.

"Collusion" , that word sounds so nice.

Heard somewhere on the streets of DC:

Attention Plunge Protection Team! S&P 1490 has been breached, this is not a drill, I repeat, this is not a drill!