I agree Chuck. I think the IB's make so much money, billions of writedowns are just a temporary blip to earnings. At least that's what Wall Street is saying.
PPI was below expected for the month, but above 6% yoy.
core was of course excellent. what a surprise.
Retail numbers also looked good, unless you delve deeply into them.
And Bear Stearns released its writedown today, 1.4B if I recall correctly from memory. but they also are stating that the worst of the mortgage fiasco is behind them. (what about the rest of credit issues???)
If the commercial boom slows, there will be defaults. That is priced into nothing at this time and if it happens, it will be the BIG hit. Personally, I haven't seen any break in commercial construction yet. I do expect it, however.
If the commercial boom slows, there will be defaults.
I like Roubini & read his stuff but some times he frustrates me... says stuff like 'If it rains we'll get wet'. I think we know that - I guess I'd like more specifics. When, how bad & what will be the first signs.
Either that or just present more data and his take i=on what it means but then leave it 'open' enough to let us judge what comes next.
Frankly CR does a lot better job of this via his charts & such - you can argue about what they mean and what will happen next but they are what they are. I really appreciate that.
So here's a question. I have money in HSBC. Not a lot -- it is just my family's joint checking account (my Polish wife likes doing business with an international bank). Big money is elsewhere.
But a freeze on this account during a FDIC bailout would suck. Do we think HSBC has WAMU-level problems, or are they big enough to survive this?
They do have large sub-prime credit card exposure.
Of the 3.4 billion loss .7 was tied to sub-prime mtgs. The "unsecured consumer loans and CC debts. (This is actually the bigger story. It the unsecured Debt that's now become their problem.)
But... Bear Sterns and (yesterday) GS have now said the worst is behind us.
Stock market, with all the bad news, has been holding up amaazingly well.
I agree Chuck. I think the IB's make so much money, billions of writedowns are just a temporary blip to earnings. At least that's what Wall Street is saying.
PPI and retail numbers out.
PPI was below expected for the month, but above 6% yoy.
core was of course excellent. what a surprise.
Retail numbers also looked good, unless you delve deeply into them.
And Bear Stearns released its writedown today, 1.4B if I recall correctly from memory. but they also are stating that the worst of the mortgage fiasco is behind them. (what about the rest of credit issues???)
stock up 10% on the news.
rediculous.
Roubini The Next Shoe to Drop is CRE
"The financial markets massacre is just starting and a generalized liquidity and credit crunch will become full blown in the next few months".
What Roubini says.
If the commercial boom slows, there will be defaults. That is priced into nothing at this time and if it happens, it will be the BIG hit. Personally, I haven't seen any break in commercial construction yet. I do expect it, however.
Retail numbers also looked good, unless you delve deeply into them.
'Core' Retail? Isn't that a bit like 'Core' CPI or PPI?
If the commercial boom slows, there will be defaults.
I like Roubini & read his stuff but some times he frustrates me... says stuff like 'If it rains we'll get wet'. I think we know that - I guess I'd like more specifics. When, how bad & what will be the first signs.
Either that or just present more data and his take i=on what it means but then leave it 'open' enough to let us judge what comes next.
Frankly CR does a lot better job of this via his charts & such - you can argue about what they mean and what will happen next but they are what they are. I really appreciate that.
So here's a question. I have money in HSBC. Not a lot -- it is just my family's joint checking account (my Polish wife likes doing business with an international bank). Big money is elsewhere.
But a freeze on this account during a FDIC bailout would suck. Do we think HSBC has WAMU-level problems, or are they big enough to survive this?
No where close to WM.
They do have large sub-prime credit card exposure.
Of the 3.4 billion loss .7 was tied to sub-prime mtgs. The "unsecured consumer loans and CC debts. (This is actually the bigger story. It the unsecured Debt that's now become their problem.)
Hey, Sub-prime is under control.
Cheers