ot joking about "fire sales"

but i'd be worried about upside down "owners" and other neer'do'wells lighting up houses to cut losses, afterall hard to spare resources to investagate arson i'd presume.

What are you doing with that flint and steel, little flipper boy?

Glad you're doing OK. Is that safe as in 'safe as long as the wind doesn't change'? Or is it 'safe because there's just not that much crap around that can burn'.

I suspect that the summer of '08 will have a lot of work for fire departments.

One of the Weather Channel weather disaster shows ran a worst-case scenario for San Diego last year: a combination of drought, dense forests full of dying trees, and Santa Ana winds sends a wildfire straight west through San Diego to the sea. I hope it doesn't get that bad. My best wishes to everyone down there.

As for gallows humor about the housing market: after the SF Bay papers ran stories on the overdue rupturing of the Hayward Fault, my first though was, "At least we've got lots of empty new homes ready in Modesto and Sacramento for the refugees...

Some insurers in rural AZ recommend this stuff.

Stops fires dead.

I didn't know Glenn Beck and the cast of Fox News had houses out there.

FFDIC,

Have any comment on the retirement of the OCC's chief national bank examiner, Wayne Rushton?

Just sayi

Clyde - where did you read that? Mr. Rushton has certainly earned his retirment as have all of the examiners who survived not only the S&L crisis but also the fucking government politics inside these regulatory agencies. You cannot imagine how bad it gets. Thanks.

--
Regrettably, we could have the worst of the four seasons in SoCal. To recap, the four seasons, in order, are:

Famine (lack of rains)
Fires
Floods and
Earthquakes

Fires are spitting into the winds as we speak.

Jas

Best wishes to all in California...

Glad to hear you are safe. It's a terrible time for a lot of people. Very dangerous and very unnerving.

So far not as bad as it could be. The last time the worst happened the next day. It started where there aren't too many houses, then spread to where there aren't too many houses but what there are are very expensive, then moved into the city proper. Right now we're still into the edge of the very expensive up in Rancho Santa Fe, but, as noted, there are still a few out lying subdivisions burning. Tomorrow will tell if we lose thousands of houses. It's hard to guess what this will mean for the housing market, if you lose the house without any equity, you really are only relieved of a potential debt, replacing everything isn't an attractive option.

BTW the wind gusting at 60 mph is spooky enough to discourage any but the most sociopathic from rson right now.

there will a healthy correction in CRE. No big bust expected:
I'm not thinking these fires are good for big ticket retail sales.

On commercial real estate:
Expired? .v=1

Have you seen the adds for retail commercial space? They aren't all empty yet, but they will be (notice given). Friends of my wife just narrowly avoided a layoff at a commercial RE title company. That market is weak and yet we aren't yet in a recession... hmmm.

Evidence points to a sharp drop in commercial real estate. Now is that a crash or a correction? I think that depends if its your commercial property or someone else's.

Got popcorn?
Neil

Anyone know of a current satellite link? I'm a little concerned about a nephew in LaJolla and another in Brentwood. Not having much luck with the telephone so far.

4runner,

Thanks. I appreciate that.

Thanks, JBR. They finally called back. I hear the winds are expected to drop late tomorrow. Let's hope for sooner.

Quincy...Boy could I add to your comment! Had a major disaster in 04 and my Insurer was, well, unfaithful beyond belief! Not only this, they told us our lives were second to mitigating the loss. NO respect for the vultures that served nay screwed us!

Take care CR. Having had a family house fire when younger, I would wish that fate on no one.

On a different topic, however. Has anyone posted on Roubini's comments on SIV's recently? I haven't seen anything.

RGE - The First Crisis of Financial Globalization and Securitization. And the Coming Generalized Credit Crunch

This in particular I thought interesting, the Fed's waiving of Reg W in some of the recent SIV liquidity rescues:

"Indeed the problem of the SIVs and conduits is the most serious manifestation of maturity mismatches and liquidity risk in the most recent market episode. And it is also the most serious manifestation of the banks’ gambling for redemption and moral hazard from the lender of last resort role of central banks.

Citigroup alone accounted for 25% of all SIV assets ($400 billion) given its $100 billion (now down to $80 billion given a partial disposal of assets) in seven SIVs. Such banks played a dangerous game of regulatory arbitrage by creating risky off-balance sheet SIVs, loaded with risky assets and funded with the most short term asset backed CP in order to avoid the Basel capital charges for similar on balance sheet assets. The whole point of bank capital regulation is that banks that get the lender of last resort support of the central banks need to have enough capital to avoid the gamble for redemption games of playing at a casino with the money of depositors. But banks first avoided those capital charges by creating the off-balance sheet SIVs with lower capital charges and then, when the roll-off of the liabilities of such SIVs occurred amply relied on the Fed’s lender of last resort lending – and on explicit Fed bending of strict rules on how much the banks could re-lend to their affiliated and SIVs – to avoid the losses that they would have incurred by their reckless creation of illiquid SIVs. Specifically, the Fed played a major role in this SIV mess by providing regulatory forbearance to Citigroup and other banks by allowing them to breach the rule on how much they could relend to their broker dealer and SIV affiliates of the funds lent by the Fed during the August and September liquidity crunch. Formally, Fed's decide to waive Section 23A of the Federal Reserve Act (Reg W) and allow Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, Wachovia to make large loans to their broker dealer units. As Chris Whalen clearly put it:

Section 23A is one of the most important parts of the Federal Reserve Act. It prohibits "covered transactions" with any one affiliate of a Fed member bank in excess of 10% of the bank's capital and surplus, and up to 20% in aggregate for all bank affiliates. The purpose of the section is to protect the capital of the bank, even if that means allowing non-bank units or the parent holding company to be decapitalized or even fail in a "market resolution."…. The Fed's August 20, 2007 letter to BAC [Bank of America] allows the lead bank to extend up to $25 billion in collateralized loans to affiliates, an amount equal to 30% of the

CR, I've been thinking about your predicament and just bottom-line it for us...worst case scenario.

Even if you burned up in a fire and lost all your worldly possessions, the blog would go on, right?

I mean, everything's all backed up?

Here is the (financial) irony...For homeowners in SoCal, if you leave your home your homeowners policy is perhaps void. Read the fine print, as the insured you have to take all measures to mitigate the loss. By abandoning your home, you have breached the contract of insurance and coverage may not apply. Keep copies of your evac orders - who gave them when, take pics, and then grab as much as you can of valuable, personal items and stay out of harms way.
Been there done that. Sad memories.

Manatory yes. But in the eyes of the insurer, if life loss is less than property, you die and the house maybe stands.
We were told that in our case, our property damages were unknown but that our lives were scheduled at 2k each so staying was the right thing to do for the insurer and so we were instructed. The claims manager also TOLD us that our lungs were not covered so not to bother filing.

I suppose those whose homes are underwater will be lucky to have the fire take care of the problem for them; and stick the insurance company with the bill, if the house is in fact still insured. Or won't insurance companies insure houses in the fire area anymore?

Most policies I've seen either insure for 'replacement cost' or 'estimated appraised value'... both less some predetermined deductible.

So if the buyer bought well north of current appraised value or replacement cost - well that homeowner is likely to be screwed.

I could be wrong but that's my (lame) understanding. Any insurance adjusters in the house?

Lost in Translation: Mozilo versus Greenburg - what a fight

O please someone write the scenario!

Wonder if FEMA will do a better job in SD than they did in NOLA. In this case most of the people affected are white, so the response from Bush and Co is likely to be better. On the other hand, CA will alomost surely go for the Democrats in 08, which might cause them to drag their feet. Plenty of trailers still sitting and doing nothing in Arkansas, perhaps they will ship them out there.