Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy, the biggest contributor to global growth, expanded 11.5 percent in the third quarter, adding pressure for faster currency appreciation and higher borrowing costs to curb inflation.
The increase in gross domestic product from a year earlier matched the median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and compared with an 11.9 percent gain in the second quarter, the fastest pace in 12 years. The statistics bureau released the figures in Beijing
The central bank may raise interest rates immediately,'' said Wang Qing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.We expect the yuan to appreciate more quickly over the next three months as part of measures to cool the economy.''
The CSI 300 fell 4.6 percent at the 3 p.m. close of trading. The yuan rose to close at 7.4820 versus the dollar from 7.4926 yesterday, heading for the biggest weekly gain in five weeks.
So it's a bet that the fed lowers a quaretr at least thereby killing the dollar...
I'll take the over. While Elvis may well be right that there is as much as a 4m dwelling unit surplus they won't all go to foreclosure. Then again some 4-6% of all homes are owned by people who cannot afford them. Barring the hand of socialism those will change hands somehow over the next few years as well. I'm taking the over because everything I've seen tells me that Congress and the Fed are going to make things worse and all the old timers and experts don't understand the psychology of this new debtor class. These new style debtors aren't even going to try to honor their obligations.
--
"Between 2001 and 2007, roughly 4M more homes were built than justified by the fundamentals."
Wait a minute, are you suggesting that CR's estimate of demand during this period, 1.7M annual rate, is way off base by at least 500K a year? This is because the average units completed were below 1.7M annual rate.
A rough estimate is that for every 2% drop in home prices there are 1M home owners who get below water. This is not a linear relationship, but a 10% drop in home prices, nationally, definitely would put more than 5M under water and at least 2.5M would Walk Away! If prices drop 20% then we can expect 5-8M foreclosures.
It is all about price drops and not about the labels of the mortgages.
HAHAHAHAH!!!!! More spin...I think ill refi right now....oh wait, there is no lenders...and the Employees were all let go...Oh well back to my Aroma Theripy.
it's best to think of those 2m people not as victims, but as heros who sacrificed themselves to allow the other x% to achieve the dream of homeownership, without which it's probably not worth living anyways. i salute you, poor people...now stop sleeping on my f'ing stoop!
Policymakers have been encouraging lenders to use loan modifications to help homeowners who are facing foreclosure. Although many lenders have claimed publicly that they are doing just that, a survey by the California Reinvestment Coalition says otherwise.
Counseling agencies labeled 13 lenders/servicers as 'difficult to work with in trying to keep borrowers in their homes'. Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual, and Wells Fargo were named most frequently (5 times each). Citibank was considered to be the lender most willing to work with delinquent borrowers.
Foreclosure 19
Short Sale 11
Forbearance Agreement 8
Loan Refinance 1
Loan Modification 1
Like it or not, Humans are self interested. Debtors in the past were not constrained by high minded morals, but by the fact that legit folks would not lend to folks who either had a history of not paying or were unable to pay.
Sans that, it was the pawn shop in the undesirable part of time or undesirable men who knee capped past due folks.
Reminds me of a video I saw one about men's long hair, which in the 60-70s was considered less than moral on men. The reason was that in War I and II time, soldiers were close cut and so anyone that had long hair was avoiding the military. As folks had relatives in the war, long hair came to be immoral. The adults of the 1960s grew up in those eras learned that 'morality' and reacted on a conditionslost past.
Likewise, morality about paying is not moral, but a measure of the difficulty of getting debt. If I can borrow $10,000 from fly by nite lenders and not pay it back then get another 10 grand from Dewey Cheatem and Howe when that runs out, what is the big deal?
Beats starving or waiting for that Big Screen TV.
More over in the good old days, folks were encouraged to save by our betters. Now a days you see ads for getting into debt or buy this that and the other. Society sets morals and todays society says that debt is a very good thing and if you get in trouble, no biggie.
Now if I can remember when I hid those 20 or so Credit cards the CC Cos sent me when my Credit report went bad because their metrics indicate that I am a lamb for the slaughter, I will max those puppies out.
Instead of falling 15k to 780k as expected new home sales "rose" 35k to 770k.
Go figure.
New single-family home sales rose to an annual rate of 770,000 from a revised rate of 735,000 in August, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting September sales to fall to an annual rate of 780,000 from the August previously reported rate of 795,000.
Does that number include the pending wave foreclosures from option ARM resets, or have they not even started factoring that in yet? If not, then this could all go from closet schadenfreude to outright panic. Guess that's stating the obvious, but the numbers are starting to be mind-blowing.
"The Joint Economic Committee estimates that the lost of real estate wealth just from foreclosures on subprime loans will be about $71 billion. An additional $32 billion would be lost because foreclosed homes tend to drive down the prices of other houses in the neighborhood. "
So where did this lost real estate wealth come from? Is it the lost downpayments? Because, those being foreclosed on, by definition, didn't have wealth, they had debt. Got to pay the house off to have wealth in it or at least have some equity. Market prices go up and down so price movement equity is only wealth if sell out before it declines. Seems to me the people losing wealth are the investors who bought this junk. Are we to cry real tears for them?
Note to the Times, you can't lose something you never had.
It seems that those of us who didn't buy into the scam are at stealing this "wealth". If we'd only buy a house or two each all of this "wealth" would be saved. We are very selfish. We should cry later.
The $32 billion "loss of real estate wealth" is a fiction. This is not (for the most part) the "empty houses bring down the neighborhood" effect, but they are measuring the fact that foreclosures provide market data (comps) to the rest of the neighborhood and banks. If I thought my house was worth $600K, but a foreclosed home next door sells for $500K, the foreclosure has not caused me to lose $100K -- it has just revealed the true market price.
This "lost wealth" due to foreclosures is a number that has been created by the interest groups behind a bailout to try to justify government intervention as being for the common good.
Do these higher September sales numbers factor in next month's downward revision to the September numbers so they can claim higher sales in October, too?
They'll "revise" from 770K for Septermber down to 720K (which would be a fall from August) so that October's 730K looks good, until that gets revised to 690K, etc.
GD, there is a real component to the "lost wealth" from houses in neighborhoods that see a lot of foreclosures, whatever "a lot" turns out to be. Whatever the public safety profile of the neighborhood had been, it deteriorates after some proportion of houses become vacant. The esthetics of the neighborhood generally become worse. Demand for the public services that affect these matters is more likely to be insufficiently met as overall tax receipts for the city or town decline. All such factors represent real losses to the remaining homeowners against which the value of their houses have to be measured. They are not just perceptions, and because they are physical changes in the situation, they are not merely market mark-downs either.
taken!
Between 2001 and 2007, roughly 4M more homes were built than justified by the fundamentals. My guess is 2M foreclosures might be too light.
It's starting to sound like Marc Faber around here.
When things are good, they are not as good as they seem.
And when things are bad, they are not as bad as they seem.
(I hope.)
I'll ready to do my part to help. Price those houses were they should be and I'll buy. I'm a prime customer with tons of cash. Keep me in mind.
ooo, should have been "I'm ready" not "I'll ready" prime yes but my engrish is not great.
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy, the biggest contributor to global growth, expanded 11.5 percent in the third quarter, adding pressure for faster currency appreciation and higher borrowing costs to curb inflation.
The increase in gross domestic product from a year earlier matched the median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and compared with an 11.9 percent gain in the second quarter, the fastest pace in 12 years. The statistics bureau released the figures in Beijing
The central bank may raise interest rates immediately,'' said Wang Qing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.We expect the yuan to appreciate more quickly over the next three months as part of measures to cool the economy.''
The CSI 300 fell 4.6 percent at the 3 p.m. close of trading. The yuan rose to close at 7.4820 versus the dollar from 7.4926 yesterday, heading for the biggest weekly gain in five weeks.
So it's a bet that the fed lowers a quaretr at least thereby killing the dollar...
Hank Reardo
I'll take the over. While Elvis may well be right that there is as much as a 4m dwelling unit surplus they won't all go to foreclosure. Then again some 4-6% of all homes are owned by people who cannot afford them. Barring the hand of socialism those will change hands somehow over the next few years as well. I'm taking the over because everything I've seen tells me that Congress and the Fed are going to make things worse and all the old timers and experts don't understand the psychology of this new debtor class. These new style debtors aren't even going to try to honor their obligations.
--
"Between 2001 and 2007, roughly 4M more homes were built than justified by the fundamentals."
Wait a minute, are you suggesting that CR's estimate of demand during this period, 1.7M annual rate, is way off base by at least 500K a year? This is because the average units completed were below 1.7M annual rate.
Jas
Bill Fleckenstein called the the coming economic wave a "firestorm." That sounds about right to me.
A rough estimate is that for every 2% drop in home prices there are 1M home owners who get below water. This is not a linear relationship, but a 10% drop in home prices, nationally, definitely would put more than 5M under water and at least 2.5M would Walk Away! If prices drop 20% then we can expect 5-8M foreclosures.
It is all about price drops and not about the labels of the mortgages.
Jas
How many in a 'shitload'?
HAHAHAHAH!!!!! More spin...I think ill refi right now....oh wait, there is no lenders...and the Employees were all let go...Oh well back to my Aroma Theripy.
September new homes sales rose 4.8 percent
| Reuters
it's best to think of those 2m people not as victims, but as heros who sacrificed themselves to allow the other x% to achieve the dream of homeownership, without which it's probably not worth living anyways. i salute you, poor people...now stop sleeping on my f'ing stoop!
very telling article:
IamFacingForeclosure.com - Article: Survey Suggests Lenders are Not Working to Prevent Foreclosures
Policymakers have been encouraging lenders to use loan modifications to help homeowners who are facing foreclosure. Although many lenders have claimed publicly that they are doing just that, a survey by the California Reinvestment Coalition says otherwise.
Counseling agencies labeled 13 lenders/servicers as 'difficult to work with in trying to keep borrowers in their homes'. Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual, and Wells Fargo were named most frequently (5 times each). Citibank was considered to be the lender most willing to work with delinquent borrowers.
Foreclosure 19
Short Sale 11
Forbearance Agreement 8
Loan Refinance 1
Loan Modification 1
Vr,
Hank
Obviously, the Bush administration numbers are taking into account the $100 billion bail-out.
Shitload?
Thats a US southern measurement
metric equivalent is "assload"
Hank
Robert Coté
Like it or not, Humans are self interested. Debtors in the past were not constrained by high minded morals, but by the fact that legit folks would not lend to folks who either had a history of not paying or were unable to pay.
Sans that, it was the pawn shop in the undesirable part of time or undesirable men who knee capped past due folks.
Reminds me of a video I saw one about men's long hair, which in the 60-70s was considered less than moral on men. The reason was that in War I and II time, soldiers were close cut and so anyone that had long hair was avoiding the military. As folks had relatives in the war, long hair came to be immoral. The adults of the 1960s grew up in those eras learned that 'morality' and reacted on a conditionslost past.
Likewise, morality about paying is not moral, but a measure of the difficulty of getting debt. If I can borrow $10,000 from fly by nite lenders and not pay it back then get another 10 grand from Dewey Cheatem and Howe when that runs out, what is the big deal?
Beats starving or waiting for that Big Screen TV.
More over in the good old days, folks were encouraged to save by our betters. Now a days you see ads for getting into debt or buy this that and the other. Society sets morals and todays society says that debt is a very good thing and if you get in trouble, no biggie.
Now if I can remember when I hid those 20 or so Credit cards the CC Cos sent me when my Credit report went bad because their metrics indicate that I am a lamb for the slaughter, I will max those puppies out.
Another minor correction:
Those figures will cause a decline of $917 million in lost property tax revenue to state and local governments...
Child's play.
you guys are forgetting one
the 'buttload'
you guys are forgetting one
the 'buttload'
And BOS - Big Ol' Shitload. That one's for you textaholics.
If M.Perry forecasted 2M foreclosures in Oct.06, why he cannot steer Indymac from the bad loans and now IMB has fallen 70%??
It is nice to see the optimism and general attitude of "things are not as bad as others think" coming from the White House.
Hilarious Bacon Dreamz!
Had an MI Rep stop by today. He was complaining about how much money the company was losing on the levels loans. Definitely not happy with the poor.
very telling article:
<link to iamfacingforeclosure.com>
Whoa. Did Casey sell the site to someone? This looks like someone is trying to make a respectable site on the ashes of his blog.
As residential and commercial values decline,Iwould expect local govs to offset lower assessments with higher tax rates.
What a difference a revision makes.
Instead of falling 15k to 780k as expected new home sales "rose" 35k to 770k.
Go figure.
New single-family home sales rose to an annual rate of 770,000 from a revised rate of 735,000 in August, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting September sales to fall to an annual rate of 780,000 from the August previously reported rate of 795,000.
Does that number include the pending wave foreclosures from option ARM resets, or have they not even started factoring that in yet? If not, then this could all go from closet schadenfreude to outright panic. Guess that's stating the obvious, but the numbers are starting to be mind-blowing.
"The Joint Economic Committee estimates that the lost of real estate wealth just from foreclosures on subprime loans will be about $71 billion. An additional $32 billion would be lost because foreclosed homes tend to drive down the prices of other houses in the neighborhood. "
So where did this lost real estate wealth come from? Is it the lost downpayments? Because, those being foreclosed on, by definition, didn't have wealth, they had debt. Got to pay the house off to have wealth in it or at least have some equity. Market prices go up and down so price movement equity is only wealth if sell out before it declines. Seems to me the people losing wealth are the investors who bought this junk. Are we to cry real tears for them?
Note to the Times, you can't lose something you never had.
It seems that those of us who didn't buy into the scam are at stealing this "wealth". If we'd only buy a house or two each all of this "wealth" would be saved. We are very selfish. We should cry later.
The $32 billion "loss of real estate wealth" is a fiction. This is not (for the most part) the "empty houses bring down the neighborhood" effect, but they are measuring the fact that foreclosures provide market data (comps) to the rest of the neighborhood and banks. If I thought my house was worth $600K, but a foreclosed home next door sells for $500K, the foreclosure has not caused me to lose $100K -- it has just revealed the true market price.
This "lost wealth" due to foreclosures is a number that has been created by the interest groups behind a bailout to try to justify government intervention as being for the common good.
Do these higher September sales numbers factor in next month's downward revision to the September numbers so they can claim higher sales in October, too?
They'll "revise" from 770K for Septermber down to 720K (which would be a fall from August) so that October's 730K looks good, until that gets revised to 690K, etc.
GD, there is a real component to the "lost wealth" from houses in neighborhoods that see a lot of foreclosures, whatever "a lot" turns out to be. Whatever the public safety profile of the neighborhood had been, it deteriorates after some proportion of houses become vacant. The esthetics of the neighborhood generally become worse. Demand for the public services that affect these matters is more likely to be insufficiently met as overall tax receipts for the city or town decline. All such factors represent real losses to the remaining homeowners against which the value of their houses have to be measured. They are not just perceptions, and because they are physical changes in the situation, they are not merely market mark-downs either.
Florida short sales are a part of the short sales in the entire area of foreclosure.