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The most important data point is 185K Completed New Homes for sale. This is the highest ever. The previous cycle high was 125K. This is not the total inventory of New Homes Completed for sale but those that were never sold.
Reuters just reported a 4.8% sale increase and medium price increase...let the party begin...We don't need no stinking disclosures..just SIGN!! DAMIT!!
OK, now compare what you wrote, Tanta, to the CBS marketwatch headline bulletins (below) on these same new home sales especially the first bulletin re: prices. If all you read were these bulletins, everything is on the up and up re: new home sales. That is not by accident IMO. Shameful on part of marketwatch.
U.S. Sept. median sales price up 5% in past year
10:00 AM ET, Oct 25, 2007 - 28 minutes ago
17.\tU.S. Sept. new-home inventory 8.3 months vs. 9 months
10:00 AM ET, Oct 25, 2007 - 28 minutes ago
18.\tU.S. new-home sales rise 4.8% after big downward revisions
10:00 AM ET, Oct 25, 2007 - 28 minutes ago
19.\tU.S. Sept. new-home sales 770,000 vs. 758,000 expected
10:00 AM ET, Oct 25, 2007 - 28 minutes ago
Interesting to see the markets knee jerk reaction to the "increase." However, if August had not been revised down so much, these new numbers would have been a decrease. At least, these results are not an excuse for another 0.5% cut.
I'm optimist about tech and will wait a little longer before buying housing puts again, probably until after the fed meeting. If we get another good pop in the builders then, that should be a good time to go short/buy puts.
"New single-family home sales rose to an annual rate of 770,000 from a revised rate of 735,000 in August, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting September sales to fall to an annual rate of 780,000 from the August previously reported rate of 795,000."
OK lets do the math, they used the revised August numbers divided by the raw Sept data, 770, 000 to arrive with the 4.8% rise in sales.
The way I see it is lets use the raw August data of 795,000 and Sept raw data of 770,000 and sales are 3.1% lower than last month.
Lets face it the majority own homes, so the majority want to see good news on housing, so the masses would click on the good headline apparently its got nothing to do with integrity, its all about add sales.
Looking at CR's charts, only the revision to the August figures stopped this from being the lowest monthly number (whether or not Seasonally Adjusted) for at least 5 years.
The media creates its own problem going forward, as the news becomes less favorable and the economic realities of day to day life impact more and more folks. The coming economic slowdown will come as a shock to many people who will be unprepared and probably stop spending on a dime.
Nice! Looks like manufacturing good news is simply a matter of revising the prior month below the current month. They can do that almost all the way down to zero.
The markets are in the grasp of the manipulators right now, folks, so be careful if you're invested. The "unexpected rise" is laughable, but it is sending the homebuilders higher.
Also, as an aside, yesterday dramatic rise in the S&P futures (which began shortly before a "rumor" was disseminated claiming the Fed would lower the discount rate today by 50 bps).
When stocks disengage from fundamentals, it is best to stand aside and wait for the pigmen to become exhausted. Then act.
A quick "non-stunning" (and if I say so myself, "non-ugly") note about CR in the headline: The stunning - but not surprising - downward revision to the August sales numbers was extremely ugly. This is the second report after the start of the credit turmoil, and, as expected, the sales numbers are very poor.
We, (damn near cognoscenti), understand that cancellations would affect those August sales stats...and so penciled them eva so lightly (just like the current ones...right, you dissonant cognoscentis with the pens?), but some of us (cutting edge cognos) are chomping at the bit to see these revisions built in...now that we have this pattern, this historical record, from which we could make more accurate entries...saving us the time of erasing the pen marks, you know? We can take the bad news easier than the damn eraserin, you know?
Alrighty then.
And then that slap back at AP in the comments: NO! The numbers are Horrible. There was no rebound. Geesh.
So the information tooling is more robust than we thought? The revisions deliberately delayed to give this impression to the cognoscenti challenged?
Thank you so much for your excellent graphics and analysis. I have found your site to be the best source of information on the health (orlack thereof) of my industry.
I am a little encouraged by the data on the homes available for sale (seems to be on the downtrend). With builders dropping prices and with the hoped for recovery in the mortgage market, we may be near a bottom. I can always hope.
hi
First, but so what?
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The most important data point is 185K Completed New Homes for sale. This is the highest ever. The previous cycle high was 125K. This is not the total inventory of New Homes Completed for sale but those that were never sold.
Jas
Oh my, look at AP leads this story:
New Home Sales Rebound in September
NO! The numbers are Horrible. There was no rebound. Geesh.
Best to all.
Reuters just reported a 4.8% sale increase and medium price increase...let the party begin...We don't need no stinking disclosures..just SIGN!! DAMIT!!
OK, now compare what you wrote, Tanta, to the CBS marketwatch headline bulletins (below) on these same new home sales especially the first bulletin re: prices. If all you read were these bulletins, everything is on the up and up re: new home sales. That is not by accident IMO. Shameful on part of marketwatch.
10:00 AM ET, Oct 25, 2007 - 28 minutes ago
17.\tU.S. Sept. new-home inventory 8.3 months vs. 9 months
10:00 AM ET, Oct 25, 2007 - 28 minutes ago
18.\tU.S. new-home sales rise 4.8% after big downward revisions
10:00 AM ET, Oct 25, 2007 - 28 minutes ago
19.\tU.S. Sept. new-home sales 770,000 vs. 758,000 expected
10:00 AM ET, Oct 25, 2007 - 28 minutes ago
Interesting to see the markets knee jerk reaction to the "increase." However, if August had not been revised down so much, these new numbers would have been a decrease. At least, these results are not an excuse for another 0.5% cut.
I'm optimist about tech and will wait a little longer before buying housing puts again, probably until after the fed meeting. If we get another good pop in the builders then, that should be a good time to go short/buy puts.
With all due respect to who ever reported sales were up...A home Burning to the ground does not Constitute a sale.
is it possible to get the new home sales (saar) chart but with the original numbers vs revised? just curious
Reuters:
Sales jump an unexpected 4.8%
"New single-family home sales rose to an annual rate of 770,000 from a revised rate of 735,000 in August, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting September sales to fall to an annual rate of 780,000 from the August previously reported rate of 795,000."
OK lets do the math, they used the revised August numbers divided by the raw Sept data, 770, 000 to arrive with the 4.8% rise in sales.
The way I see it is lets use the raw August data of 795,000 and Sept raw data of 770,000 and sales are 3.1% lower than last month.
Yes, CR. The CNN radio station just said the new home sales rebounded, and I said "That is a lie." People looked at me funny.
Lets face it the majority own homes, so the majority want to see good news on housing, so the masses would click on the good headline apparently its got nothing to do with integrity, its all about add sales.
Every day in every way . . .
Looking at CR's charts, only the revision to the August figures stopped this from being the lowest monthly number (whether or not Seasonally Adjusted) for at least 5 years.
Some rebound.
"OK lets do the math, they used the revised August numbers divided by the raw Sept data, 770, 000 to arrive with the 4.8% rise in sales."
Thats how you find 'bagholders' for your toxic sludge.
Create the news to create the bids to sell or short into...
TheFinancialNinja
This numbers are UGLY! Leave it to Industry and MSM that turns 10% Decline into 4% gain!
Housing Depression: New Home Sales - Turning UGLY numbers into Good!
The media creates its own problem going forward, as the news becomes less favorable and the economic realities of day to day life impact more and more folks. The coming economic slowdown will come as a shock to many people who will be unprepared and probably stop spending on a dime.
Nice! Looks like manufacturing good news is simply a matter of revising the prior month below the current month. They can do that almost all the way down to zero.
Formerly known as...
You are right but it gets more interesting if you subtract the revised number from Current month as it should!
770K - 60 = 710K !
As posted here
Housing Depression: New Home Sales - Turning UGLY numbers into Good!
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CNBC debating "Has housing bottomed?" based on the New Home Sales report. None of the three commentators are buying it.
Housing would not have bottomed until the Housing Market Index is above 50 for three months.
Jas
The markets are in the grasp of the manipulators right now, folks, so be careful if you're invested. The "unexpected rise" is laughable, but it is sending the homebuilders higher.
Also, as an aside, yesterday dramatic rise in the S&P futures (which began shortly before a "rumor" was disseminated claiming the Fed would lower the discount rate today by 50 bps).
When stocks disengage from fundamentals, it is best to stand aside and wait for the pigmen to become exhausted. Then act.
A quick "non-stunning" (and if I say so myself, "non-ugly") note about CR in the headline:
The stunning - but not surprising - downward revision to the August sales numbers was extremely ugly. This is the second report after the start of the credit turmoil, and, as expected, the sales numbers are very poor.
We, (damn near cognoscenti), understand that cancellations would affect those August sales stats...and so penciled them eva so lightly (just like the current ones...right, you dissonant cognoscentis with the pens?), but some of us (cutting edge cognos) are chomping at the bit to see these revisions built in...now that we have this pattern, this historical record, from which we could make more accurate entries...saving us the time of erasing the pen marks, you know? We can take the bad news easier than the damn eraserin, you know?
Alrighty then.
And then that slap back at AP in the comments:
NO! The numbers are Horrible. There was no rebound. Geesh.
So the information tooling is more robust than we thought? The revisions deliberately delayed to give this impression to the cognoscenti challenged?
Thank you so much for your excellent graphics and analysis. I have found your site to be the best source of information on the health (orlack thereof) of my industry.
I am a little encouraged by the data on the homes available for sale (seems to be on the downtrend). With builders dropping prices and with the hoped for recovery in the mortgage market, we may be near a bottom. I can always hope.
Sales were down roughly 40% from the peak, which was only two years ago. Did a single media outlet note that?