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Depressing news. It doesn't help that we were all sitting here on this blog last year watching all those ARM resets looming on the horizon.
Those storm clouds are huge and dark now and right overhead. And they're going to get us all wet eventually.
The foreclosure situation will only get marketedly worse going forward. With central banks selling over 32 billion in U.S. Treasuries over the past 2 weeks, an accelerated demise of the U.S.$ is on the immediate horizon. Buy only physical gold and silver to protect your wealth.
Fireworks
One of my favorite canaries in the coal mine; Sacramento has 25.3% of its' inventory listed as REO and priced approx 20% ($/sf) less than the competition. This is a leading area and this is the leading edge of their REO problem.
Enjoying my HB shorts today!
I don't have the full MBA report data yet for Q2, but using the # of mortgages serviced from Q1, that 0.65% of FC starts = 285,318 loans. FC inventory = 614,531 loans.
In the news conference, MBA economist Doug Duncan is saying that this is the story of seven states.
Michigan, Ohio and Indiana have rising foreclosures because the economies are bad.
"The other four states and the states that are driving up the national numbers today are California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona," where there are lots of non owner-occupied houses and people used ARMs for affordability.
"This is not really a national problem, but rather it's the story of seven states. The markets in other states are actually doing reasonably well and sometimes very well."
Robert: Are the REO's selling?
I like that way of looking at it, Holden. FC Rate Ex Most of the Population is pretty damn good, when you think about it.
Sorry this a bit OT, but from a macro place, not a bad one...
This is a very smart community, and the most knowledgeable on this stuff.
When should we go from "holy crap! this is serious" as we watch this train wreck with our popcorn, to how can we/can we even find a way to mitigate this major problem? Yeah we've had posts on it, but...
Can we even 1) separate the more "innocent" homeowners from the speculators/flippers and the greedy wall street players+ mortgage brokers from the players who weren't as guilty, and find a way to staunch this bleeding?
Personally, I hear the Bill Gross cry just as loudly as I think that in many ways this is all sorting itself out. all the toxic waste is poisoning the mortgage broker side as well as the MBS/CDO cap mkts side.
What gets tough, is how do we deal with the "residue" of all this that impacts real people in real ways? Do we collectively say, sucks for you, you shouldn't have done it in the first place?
When the crap that hit the wall slides down to the floor, there is still one hell of a nasty streak left behind.
Tanta
I was wondering when we might start to see the effects of delinquency and foreclosure on mortgage debt outstanding, especially in subprime non-agency MBS. When are loans that go delinquent and then enter foreclose removed from pools? Do the GSEs remove loans before for after non-agency MBS? At what point in the procedd do banks and thrifts write off bad loans?
(Actually, I asked a variant of this question before, and I apologize for raising the same subject again.)
:...a seasonally adjusted 0.65% of loans on one- to four-unit residential properties entered the foreclosure process during the period..."
How do you "seasonally adjust" homes in foreclosure?
Are the REO's selling?
Sacramento County:
Aug REOs 25.3% of sales
Aug REOs 16.2% of MLS inventory
So yes, they are selling better. It will be interesting to see how agressive the banks get when their inventory builds.
Moin,
Very reassuring that right now the loan loss reserves are at new lows....
for the fifth quarter in a row, reserves failed to keep pace with the increase in non-current loans. The industry's coverage ratio of reserves to non-current loans fell to the lowest level since the third quarter of 2002, while non-current loans posted the largest quarterly increase since the fourth quarter of 1990"
via Hussman
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: September 3, 2007 - The Problem With Financials
I was wondering when we might start to see the effects of delinquency and foreclosure on mortgage debt outstanding, especially in subprime non-agency MBS.
Well, remember that "outstandings" are net of new loans originated. You could see outstandings holding steady (instead of increasing, as they have over the last many years) as FCs more or less equal new originations and nobody else pays off loans, or something like that. It's a complicated set of numbers to wrap around.
When are loans that go delinquent and then enter foreclose removed from pools? Do the GSEs remove loans before for after non-agency MBS?
Nonagency MBS don't remove DQ loans from pools. The GSEs tend to remove them at 90 days down.
Loan balances on the total book don't reduce until the REO is sold (past-due loan amount reduced by sale proceeds).
At what point in the procedd do banks and thrifts write off bad loans?
It depends. A second lien holder will usually write off in 90 days or less, since recoveries are so low that it's too expensive to try to collect on those loans.
First lien lenders rarely "write off" a mortgage loan. They do "impair" them, so that the asset value is reduced on the balance sheet by the expected loss in FC. They also take them to "nonaccrual" after 90 days, so that the interest income on the loan no longer flows to the income statement (because it's unlikely ever to be collected).
But loan balance doesn't get written off (as opposed to written down) until the actual liquidation of the collateral.
This means that, yes, nonagency MBS carry REO as "assets."
How do you "seasonally adjust" homes in foreclosure?
If memory serves me correctly, it's mostly a matter of business days/holidays/short months in the period. There is some adjustment for seasonality of delinquency (like January, when the Christmas bills come due).
I like that way of looking at it, Holden. FC Rate Ex Most of the Population is pretty damn good, when you think about it.
Tanta | 09.06.07 - 11:07 am | #
I, too, like the attitude of "the dam broke and the town is mostly flooded, but that house on the hillside looks pretty dry!".
Anecdotal, but my elderly mother just sold her home in Portland, OR and the real estate agent was complaining about how inventory was rapidly building up in a market that was riding high but not supposed to have the negative impact of it neighbor to the south. I can foresee problems beginning to crop up in other regional markets that were erstwhile, "protected".
Tanta,
why does it say "second-lien"? i was expecting first-lien.
thanks!
- julia
I know it's not a significant milestone but Countrywide did pass $1 billion in foreclosures on about 2700 properties in California. I just have a problem processing how big that is given that we are still heading to the re-set peak.
I, too, like the attitude of "the dam broke and the town is mostly flooded, but that house on the hillside looks pretty dry!".
Seven states in trouble means that 43/50ths of the Senate has less reason to support a hare-brained bailout
Julia,
I don't know where you saw the "second-lien" wording, but it probly was a typo. Duncan said specifically that this delinquency survey covers only first-lien mortgages.
OT - with the USD going down, gold at 705, and oil back in the mid 70's, you can goodbye to a September rate cut
1. when a loan enters in foreclosure, are there any chances of the loan not to default? sorry for the stupid question, i guess what i would like to know is at which point during the foreclosure process does it become irreversible?
Basically the FC process is never "irreversible." There are some differences in state law that can make it easier or harder for people to get out of the process, and lenders can in some cases refuse to accept efforts to bring the loan current. But they never fail to accept a payoff, if you can find someone to refi the loan or buy your house.
The $64k question is, precisely, what the "FC turnover" rate is going to be soon. Historically no more than 50% of FC starts ended up as FC completions. But with falling home values, a credit crunch, etc., it's certainly possible for that rate to rise. It will never be 100%.
2. about the survey "covers over 44 million loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties, representing over 80 percent of all second-lien residential mortgage loans outstanding in the United States."
Holden's right, these are first liens. (You never want to include seconds in FC rates because you end up double-counting.) The 80% means that the MBA survey gets actual data from servicers on 80% of the loans out there, and extrapolates to the rest of them.
Those 7 states contain 90+ million people, or 30% of the U.S. population. Saying it's just a 7 state problem is misleading.
I'm sure that North Dakota and Wyoming are doing just fine.
With all that inventory maybe I should tell my 13 year old to buy a house now before she is priced out forever...truly pathetic.
HitTheBid | 09.06.07 - 11:08 am | #
I don't have a problem with the skidmark, if it reminds people that there is no such thing as a free lunch.
There are no "innocent" homeowners. There are people who assessed their potential risk/benefit (you can't decide to buy a home wthout assessing risk/benefit - otherwise, there would be no reason to confronted with the decision: the status quo would never be challenged), and decided to accept a deal that put them at their current disadvantage.
I work in the home building industry. For the past 3 years, I have warned my freinds and family NOT to get into this market (even going as far as simplifying the message to, "Buy low, sell high." How much simpler can it get?). Nonetheless, these people, with clear forewarning and plenty of data to back it up, decided that what the huckster was selling was a better bet.
The only way this mess will get cleaned up is to let it take its course. It's a bummer when the primary force driving the market seems to be gravity. On the other hand, hitting the ground will teach us quite a lesson. Something to warn the grandkids about.
when a loan enters in foreclosure, are there any chances of the loan not to default? sorry for the stupid question...
I've seen lots of stupid questions. That wasn't one of them.
Buy only physical gold and silver to protect your wealth.
Don't count on it desperate people do desperate things and your physical gold and silver will not stop a bullet or a bat...figuratively speaking of course.
Holden, here is the link
Delinquencies Increase in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey
you will see this paragraph (next to last):
The above data were obtained in cooperation with the Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBA), which produces the National Delinquency Survey (NDS). The NDS, which has been conducted since 1953, covers over 44 million loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties, representing over 80 percent of all second-lien residential mortgage loans outstanding in the United States. Loans surveyed were reported by approximately 120 lenders, including mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts.
Before you go thinking "It's just California" - California has the world's sixth largest economy and is a major portion of the U.S. economy. It is not "just California". What happens in California WILL effect the entire country.
if only somebody saw this coming.
What is the CA economy, something like 17% of the US economy or am I misremembering again?
CA. as well as FL. are toast
Oh one more thing with all the Soon to be Empty housing in CA & FL the homeless rate in these United States should drop considerably.
I know it's not a significant milestone but Countrywide did pass $1 billion in foreclosures on about 2700 properties in California. I just have a problem processing how big that is given that we are still heading to the re-set peak
OK, well, that's an average property value of 370,370.
CFC's entire servicing portfolio is about $1.43 trillion. If $1 billion of that is REO, it's 0.06%.
According to MBA there are 5,576,654 mortgages outstanding in CA as of Q2. That means that CFC's REO (2700 units) is equal to just under 5% of the total book for CA.
With some reasonable prepayment assumptions, around $73 billion in ARMs (Alt-A, subprime, and jumbo) should reset in Q3 this year. Projecting reset dollars out further than that runs into some interesting questions on prepayment projections, but I would not expect less than $70 billion per quarter for the next 18 months or so.
If CFC services 10% of those (its current servicing portfolio is about 10% of total outstandings), then CFC is looking at ~$7 billion a quarter in resets. If 2.50% of those FC, that's ~$175 million a quarter or ~$700 million a year.
All numbers = back of envelope, proceed with caution in quoting them.
Them Darn Texans screwed California again didn't they? Showed them pansy-ass democrats.
oil is up agian.
Texas Uber-alles
Texas Uber-alles
OT:
Is China quietly dumping US Treasuries?
Is China quietly dumping US Treasuries? - Telegraph
\t\t
It just keeps worse & worse
my bad
Is China quietly dumping US Treasuries? - Telegraph
And the most ridiculous item of the day:
Apparently the top lawyer from New Century is now in charge of Mortgage regulation for Nevada?
Business, financial, personal finance news - CNNMoney.com
Oh one more thing with all the Soon to be Empty housing in CA & FL the homeless rate in these United States should drop considerably.
That won't be an option until we start seeing tax lien sales and that takes 3 years at least. More like 5 in many places.
Surplus housing doesn't get efficiently reallocated and most certainly not in socially preferable fashion.
And yet the Stock Market chugs along hardly noticing the Foreclosures and inventory levels of housing...Who I repeat who is putting their money in stocks AT THE MOMENT.
so what are Tanta's prepayment projections?
One for Tanta:
Day of reckoning for derivatives has arrived
Jim Sinclair: Day of reckoning for derivatives has arrived | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
That won't be an option until we start seeing tax lien sales and that takes 3 years at least. More like 5 in many places.
3 years in FL, but if the property is in foreclosure, I would expect the servicer to keep paying the taxes. That way the property would go thru FC and avoid the tax lien/certificate sale.
so what are Tanta's prepayment projections?
Getting slower by the day.
"OT:
Is China quietly dumping US Treasuries?"
Interesting article. It's not clear that they are, even after having read the article: but the timing would be good. Apparently money has rushed into Treasuries from investors lately as a "safe haven." If China chose this moment to start tiptoeing out the door, it wouldn't be too noticeable. For a while.
Fed repos of 24.25b today are the most since pre-Turmoil Imelda.
OT - I don't know if anyone posted on this yet, I didn't see anything in the recent comments.
From Bloomberg - Analyst claims AAA rated CDPOs may have the same default rate as junk.
CPDOs Rated AAA May Risk Default, CreditSights Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
" Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Credit derivatives awarded the top ratings by Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's may be as vulnerable to default as high-risk, high-yield bonds, according to independent research firm CreditSights Inc.
Constant proportion debt obligations, known as CPDOs, use credit-default swaps to speculate that a group of companies with investment-grade ratings will repay their debt. An increase in credit rating cuts for investment-grade companies may cause losses that CPDOs would struggle to recoup, CreditSights said in a report entitled ``Distressed CPDOs: We're Doomed!''
``If you assume defaults and downgrades come in bunches rather than being evenly spaced out, CPDOs' default rates are more what you would expect for low junk ratings than for AAA,'' David Watts, a CreditSights analyst in London, said in a telephone interview yesterday.
Investors and lawmakers have criticized Moody's and S&P, the two biggest ratings firms, for assigning their top Aaa or AAA grades to securities including those backed by U.S. mortgages, and failing to issue downgrades before prices plunged. U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd last month said credit rating companies must explain why they assigned ``AAA ratings to securities that never deserved them.''
Felicity Albert, a spokeswoman at S&P, and Moody's spokesman James Overstall, both in London, declined to comment on the CreditSights report." . . .
can someone help me with a dumb question on how to read the Fed Funds Probability graph?
expectation numbers
if i look at the 9/5 graph and the yellow line representing 4.75% which intersects the right edge of the graph at approx. .43. This means if i'm correctly interpreting that the chances of the Fed reducing FFR 0.50% to 4.75% is approx. 43% right? why is Wall ST. saying its a virtual certainty the Fed will reduce rates? at 5.00% the chance of a 0.25% cut is 28% right?
Getting slower by the day.
can you give me that in SMM?
how about 100 PSA?
China sends us toxic toys. We send them toxic bonds.
We decry their lack of standards. They do the same.
We pull orders from China and buy from more reliable suppliers. They pull orders from us and buy from more reliable suppliers.
Who is operating from a position of strength? Which is more critical, bonds or toys?
4runner, "Seven states in trouble means that 43/50ths of the Senate has less reason to support a hare-brained bailout"
very good point. I hadn't thought of it in this way. The house may be population weighted but the senate could spoil any Schumer-led champagn bottle uncorking party.
From Builder Online. Some of the same builders whose companies created the excess inventory that helped push the housing industry into its current downturn are reportedly meeting today behind closed doors with Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke to discuss what can be done to prevent owners from losing their homes to foreclosure.
The actual agenda of the meeting, however, is not completely clear, as NAHB, which arranged this meeting through its High-Production Homebuilders Council, and spokespeople for several large home builders declined to answer questions about it.
[The] housing industry needs a psychological boost right now, Hovnanians chief Ara Hovnanian told CNBC.
Who is operating from a position of strength? Which is more critical, bonds or toys?
Well in the pron industry it would be the toys....sorry had to
how about 100 PSA?
How about
< 20 CPR?
haha, you've been screwed by the 'less than' thingy! that happened to me before i couldn't figure out how to use a 'less than sign + 3'!
how about for option arms? same?
I'm sure that North Dakota and Wyoming are doing just fine.
LOL. I'm sure they are.
Just to give you an idea - a few years ago (I think it was 2003) I was looking at data regarding the number of regular SFH selling for over $1MM. It was just as the bubble started and people were beginning to notice appreciation rates... I think there was something like 10K-15K homes in California selling that year for a million or more... maybe I got a zero misplaced, maybe it was only a 1000-1500... I can't remember. Anyway, quite a few and growing in numbers. Meanwhile according to the data I saw there weren't any SFH selling for a million dollars anywhere that year in North Dakota... NOT ONE. Farms - oh ya, a 20000 acre wheat farm with a house will cost ya... or land with mineral rights still attached the same... but no SFH that year over a million dollars.
Now the population of ND is only about a 640k so in one respect that isn't so strange... but compare a similar sized city in California or in the Tide Water or near NYC... my guess is there would be more than a few million plus home sales in that same period.
Now Wyoming is different - there are two Wyomings... Jackson Hole-Yellowstone and all the rest. There are plenty of million dollar places near JH & Teton Village... not so many near Laramie or Sheridan.
But the 'Seven State Model' has some validity but only if you look at the relative market size & demographics.
Yes, I got hosed by the less than again. I'm not proud.
I don't know about OAs. They've certainly been prepaying like little hotcakes, but I don't know how close we are to mostly the icky CLTV ones left.
They aren't in any reset danger, anyway.
Recast? That will suck. But I don't think most of them will start sucking until around late Q1 or Q2 08.
why is Wall ST. saying its a virtual certainty the Fed will reduce rates?
idoc,
you are right.
chances of the Fed reducing FFR
0.25% to 5% = 28%
0.50% to 4.75%= 43%
0.75% to 4.50%= 10%
1.00% to 4.25%= 8%
if you add them up:
prob of the Fed reducing FFR
between 0.25% and 1% = 89%
mkt is believing/hoping that there's about 10% prob that the FFR will keep the rates the same (at 5.25%), ie: no change of a hike.
representing over 80 percent of all second-lien residential mortgage
Julia - I think you have spotted a typo. My old MBA surveys say 44 million "first liens". D-squared will not be pleased.
On the Countrywide REO stats discussed above, just remember that is current for-sale inventory assigned out to realtors. Not REO's it already was able to unload and not REO's yet to be assigned out to a realtor. The significant fact is that inventory is growing far quicker than they can unload the properties.
Wall street may like it, but your purchasing power is going down the tubes...
Help? Can anyone help me out on the symbol for the dollar/yen? I know it was mentioned a few weeks back, but I can't find the darn thing. Thanks
1.00% to 4.25%= 8%
People think there's an 8% chance that the Fed will light up a giant neon sign saying "We're screwed, dump the dollar."?
No matter what the Fed announces, the market movements will be most exciting.
JMF-
Do not promote Dr. Hussman. He is too good of a secret to share.
If China chose this moment to start tiptoeing out the door, it wouldn't be too noticeable. For a while.
You might not see it in treasuries but you would see it in RMB:USD... they can't fix the de facto peg & continue to run a huge CAD unless they buy assets denominated in USD... else the RMB explodes.
And while the RMB continues to head up at a measured pace it is far from spiking upward (at least through today). In fact, in the last few weeks the USD has actually strengthened a little against the RMB.
So if they are selling treasuries, what are they buying to keep the RMB:USD in line? RMBS? Equities (if so through whom)?
yes, the question is how many of them will be around for the big recast, which will certainly suck. Moody's has a nice chart showing the amount of payment shock at recast depending on the amount of
teasing...1Q08 sounds a little early for the sucking...
how do you insert a less than in the comments?
Dave - perhaps this:
USDJPY=X: Summary for USD/JPY- Yahoo! Finance
"The delinquency rate for mortgages on one- to four-unit proprieties was 5.12% in the second quarter, up from 4.84% in the first quarter and 4.39% a year ago."
If these are multi-unit attached they should be propinquities.
I think the market for proprieties is actually ebbing right now. Has been for a long time.
My 401k plan does. Where should that money go otherwise?
This is the only home for sale on my street at the moment. It was first listed about 3-4 months ago at $519,000, then $489,000 and now $469,000. The long time owner an elderly widow isn't desperate to sell. There is probably no debt on this property. It is 8 miles from downtown Dallas (short commute). I consider it a good buy in the close in Dallas market for a family home.
Search Results - Dallas Real Estate
Foreclosures Are Just a Seven State Problem.
The seven states (Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada) represent 30% of the US population and close to 40% of the residential real estate by dollars.
The first three are due to poor economies and the last four due to the bubble. I think that all the seven states are either in a recession already or will soon be.
Jas
Have I finally managed to add substantive value to these discussions? Let's see.... < ....
Now, will Haloscan let me share the answer with the world, or must it remain a secret?
The answer is (drum roll) to use an ampersand followed by lt. You can read more than you ever wanted to know about it here: Page Not Found
Thanks, F. Frederso
Forbes.com
FDIC expects 1.5 million borrowers to have problems paying mortgage
(insider FDIC talk: Bank closings to being at year end unless runs come sooner)
FDIC expects 1.5 mln borrowers to have problems paying mortgage UPDATE - Forbes.com
That looks like a great place FF...
whaddya think the monthly landscape maintenance runs?
im a city dude, no clue..
Does anyone see a volatility contraction set-up in the chart of FXY (Japanese Yen)?
AZ tax revenues are down, Sales taxes from contractors are down 5% MoM.
It's not a recession in AZ yet, but is trending that way.
My 401k plan does. Where should that money go otherwise?
How about in your mattress...but even that does not seem like a good place, fed lowers and good by dalla.
And yet the Stock Market chugs along hardly noticing the Foreclosures and inventory levels of housing...Who I repeat who is putting their money in stocks AT THE MOMENT.
Bfatz | 09.06.07 - 12:57 pm |
Maybe you have'nt noticed the BIS report's--- peruse at your lesure..
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0709.pdf
pg 14 , huge defence of market
and this report
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qa0709.pdf
starting around page 100
With a straight face, come back and tell me someone(groups) don't have a DIAL on this market...Equites are the SIDESHOW...
FFDIC:
Any names for the end of the year list?
Called_Bluff
A Mexican crew charges me $30 weekly and my corner yard is almost 1/2 acre. Taxes are high: Mine: $8,000 annual. This property taxes: $12,000 annual (low HOA dues).
Everyone talks about the impending resets -- is there a solid data source that quantifies this? I know much of the financial press sticks to inflammatory comments, with no specific data behind it. Call me old fashioned, but I like to look at numbers (if available).
Hapsburger,
Cannot provide names due to ongoing litigation and possibly increased public panic. Review your deposit insurance coverage. If $100,000 in multiple banks make sure banks are not affiliated by ownership and keep track of total deposit coverages if your bank is bought or sold. Call FDIC if unsure. Never trust what the banker says.
JL,
Clink on No. 1 at the following link. You'll have to fill in some info and then you'll see Chris Cagan's most recent study.
http://ss142.fusionbot.com/cgi-bin/ss_query?sitenbr=128375742&keys=cagan&search.x=0&search.y=0
My article about it is here:
Formula for foreclosure: resets, no equity (Page 1 of 4)
Correction: the Contractors sales tax decline in AZ was 5% YoY, not MoM
Holden -- thanks.
I see some chatter that this is a 7-state problem.
Here is a nice little ditty from my neck of the woods
ArkansasBusiness.com - Ark. Business online media newspaper Arkansas News ebusiness research journal
20 million in foreclosures from a small bank getting started here. When it hits Arkansas it isn't contained.
Bank closings to being at year end unless runs come sooner
Is that FY or calendar year? FY for a lot of banks is Sept. 30
Alec,
It has more to do with beefing up FDIC staffing after 10 years of downsizing the agency. They simply are not ready to begin closings unless a run forces their hand.
FFDIC- wanna bet they don't start closing a lot of banks for a couple of years- first we have to go through many steps of deciding those commercial loans will never be paid back, and those spec flipper developer loans won't either. Then we have to decide how much the "impaired collateral" is worth, and by then the executive running them will have cooked the books long enough to get a couple more bonuses.
You used to work in government- we all knew half of Texas was insolvent in 1986, but did the FDIC actually start closing many banks then? Nope, they let them live to provide zombie high CD rates to savvy under 100K borrowers, who got those nice 14% cd returns when they finally got their money....
Someday this war's gonna end...
how do you insert a less than in the comments?
Space . . . the final frontier.
AllenM,
Makes sense to me. I'm only reporting 'insider' talk which usually has some truth to it. You also can factor in the election which impacts Fed agencies one way or another (more at FDIC).
Hapsburger,
Further on names. It's difficult even for FDIC to know because of several factors: Bank directors inject last minute capital to save banks, banks merge with healthy bank, bank substantially complies with C&D order (difficult to do in most cases)politics saves bank due to insider connections and bank's size makes it impossible to close.
Space . . . the final frontier.
thanks
how many ears does captain kirk have?
three. the left ear, the right ear, and the final front-ear!
ahahaha...oh, mercy!
FFDIC, not saying that they might not have to close a few (one in florida comes to mind) sooner rather than later, and given that they haven't closed anybody over $100 million in a dog's age they would have to staff up to do darn near anything.
Someday this war's gonna end...bankers should start emptying their desks so when the closure happens they don't lose any personal items;-} Sealed desks, ya' know!
AllenM
Yeah, and cork backed rulers great for spanking. Tanta loves hers.
Coast gets $75 million boost | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader
"When it hits Arkansas it isn't contained." Agree. Many other states do not (yet) have the depressed economies of the rust belt or the housing affordability issues of California, but a high percentages of recent originations are subprime and alt-A. They may never make the top 10 list foreclosure rate list, but things are not all good.
< → <
The "lt" is for "less than". In HTML the < starts tags, e.g. <i ..., so everything up until the next > will be considered HTML code, not text by the browser. & is used to start entities, and there are quite a few of them (including the ampersand itself, &&, and arrows →, the greek alphabet, α → α, etc.)
MarketWatch
New Foreclosures set record - highest in 55 year history
New foreclosures set record in latest MBA survey - MarketWatch
Dave,
Yen ETF ticker is FXY
if only somebody saw this coming.
dc1000 | 09.06.07 - 12:39 pm | #
LOL.
Does this mean that what happens in: Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, stays in: Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.
Just curious.
What about Georgia? I thought they were shooting up there as well, and Colorado.
Next up, maybe look to the mid-Atlantic region, Bal'more, Prince George's County in Maryland, southern and the outer suburbs of Northern Virginia. I read that 40+% of mortgages written in 2006 in West Virginia option ARMs.
I live in Indiana and was rather surprised by some information recently published in our newspaper. Adjusted for inflation, the medium income in Indiana was down 10% between 2000 and sumer 2007. This might explain why there are so many foreclosures. I guess that this results is largely due to the loss of manufacturing jobs. Probably Michigan and Indiana are a little worse.
Correction: That should be "Probably Michigan and Ohio are a little worse (than Indiana).
CNNMoney.com
A $200,000 loss and happy with it
Century 21 CEO's home is worth 15% less...
Century 21 CEO one of the homeowners hurt by market downturn - Aug. 27, 2007
CR,
Let me start by stating my bias . . . I personally am positioned to take advantage of a recession. I've moved move of my personal assets out of equities into cash/cash-equivilents, etc. in order to buy distressed real estate during this downturn. In addition, I have some long-dated puts I purchased in February (including CFC). But, I have to admit, something is not sitting right with me. I think it's your paragraph that says
"The first graph shows the YoY change in real residential investment (RI) since 1948. The general rule is that RI is falling before a recession, usually by more than 10% YoY in real terms."
You start your argument with a correlation that implies a causal relationship between residential real estate investment and recessions. But is this correlation really causality? Isn't residential RE only 5% of GDP? So what if residential investment declines even by 50% . . is that enough to take the leap from correlation to causality?
And the most ridiculous item of the day:
Apparently the top lawyer from New Century is now in charge of Mortgage regulation for Nevada?
My goodness yes. And not just any lawyer from their staff, but the reg&leg affairs counsel:
Back in the 1980s S&L debacle this kind of thing was not unheard of. One case that's been told in several accounts of that era involved the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, which then was the main thrift regulator (now replaced by the Office of Thrift Supervision).
First of all, the FHLBB chairman, Ed Gray, was appointed early in Reagan's administration precisely because he was an old thrift hand and Reagan crony, and so expected to be a light touch. But Gray underwent such a major conversion to the cause of thrift re-regulation that he winds up as one of the good guys in that sorry tale. An all-out campaign of public disparagement and private lobbying opposition against him ensued, which resulted finally in the appointment of Danny Wall to the chairmanship.
Wall had been a chief author of the Garn-Germain bill that deregulated the thrifts, i.e. that caused much of the worst trouble, in the first place. Then Wall brought in as his chief advisers the two top thrift lobbyists who had worked so hard to get rid of Gray. THe magnitude of extra taxpayer costs that the ensuing bottlenecks and ill-considered "forbearance" remedies produced have probably not been fully assessed, but are probably substantial. For instance, one of Wall's first acts as chairman was to forestall actions that would have shut down Charles Keating's Lincoln S&L, well over a year before it actually happened. Keating used the extra time to make yet more bad ADC loans.
One account where the authors detail the story is Big Money Crime. Since [much too] little has been written since then on the S&L story and its sequel, the references in that book list most of the other sources; most of them also come up on the Amazon pages. The book there by Black, one of the top FHLBB regulators, also talks about the losses from poor regulation.
Oh by the way, both Black and Calavita, Pontell, and Tillman mention another personage who in February 1985 performed $40,000 worth of lobbying services on behalf of Charles Keating's request for an exemption from existing rules against direct investments, like ADC loans, by S&L. By the time Keating's ADC loans et cetera had at last sunk Lincoln Savings into the nearest sinkhole, the lobbyist, Alan Greenspan, had been appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Oh pd130 you are bringing back a flood of Neil Bush memories...
Trust or Hustle: The Bush Record
Bush, George W. and Family Financial Misconduct, major media articles
Hush! Lest thou bring down the Flies of Orestes!
Oh, [ahem, ahem] excuse me, that just slipped out. I see many minds are turning in the same direction:
we all knew half of Texas was insolvent in 1986, but did the FDIC actually start closing many banks then? Nope, they let them live to provide zombie high CD rates to savvy under 100K borrowers, who got those nice 14% cd returns when they finally got their money....
I was hired by FDIC in October 1986 and promptly sent to a bank closing north of Houston without much in the way of training. The bank president cried like a baby in his plush office. I was trained for that having lost my own bank job six months earlier - I gave him a little pep talk. Houston did come back strong but it took many years and mucho heartache.
Thanks for the link, sort of. In all seriousness, even just reading about this stuff makes me feel a bit sicktry reading about the role of Congress without being driven to your wits' end.
Still, more people should try to be a bit educated to these knaves' doings; it might not help, but ignorance is getting us nowhere at all. The Pizzo, Fricker, Muolo book is a particularly juicy read, maybe with the Touch of Evil, Anatomy of a Murder, or Twin Peaks score playing in the background.