In Alameda County, 21.4 <a href=http://www.mlive.com/business/ambizdaily/bizjournals/index.ssf?/base/abd-3/118940641443180.xml">percent of the 4,864 properties on the multiple-listing service as of Sept. 3 were in foreclosure, owned by a bank or in negotiations between the buyer and the seller to accept an amount less than face value as payoff of their mortgage, known as a short sale, according to Movoto, a real estate research firm and brokerage based in Redwood City.
In Contra Costa County, 29.6 percent of the 6,365 properties listed were distressed, and 29 percent of 2,403 Solano County properties were posted because sellers are in distress, Movoto found.
I'm just waiting for NAR to spin lower sales as meaning lower foreclosures.
The backdrop for the August job loss is the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. Millions of low- and moderate-income homeowners are now looking at the resetting of interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages to levels that they cannot afford. While the Fed chairman and other leading economists assured the public that the problems would be restricted to the subprime segment of the housing market, this assertion was always ridiculous on its face.
With 4 months to go, the picture for 2007 is more or less clear - although there is still potential for nasty surprises, I think CR's forecast will hold. What's more interesting is housing in 2008. NAR forecasts 6.27, but I think the housing will be more depressed next year than now.
Abe, NYC, I agree - housing in 2008 will be worse than 2007 by every significant measure: sales, prices, employment, starts, RI, construction spending - you name it.
The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
Do you really expect them to predict anything that would discourage buyers of RE?
We all know that the "Association" is there to promote only the positive. Anyone who believe different, I have some swampland that I will be glad to sell you. The NAR predicts that tighter lending standards will be extraordinarily good for swampland! Buy now! The extremely high inventory means that you have many choices!
Don't be so hard on the NAR's economists. They aren't any worse than anyone else. When it comes to predictive accuracy, the average economist makes Bill O'Reilly look like a fountain of perspicacity.
What housing slump? David Lereah said "All Real Estate is Local".
It must be good in his neighborhood.....NOT
Perhaps the buyers are still waiting on the sidelines.....NOT
Sales are at a stand still here in Bow,NH. 12 lot subdivisions with only 3 homes built and no buyers for the other lots , but yet a new development is being roughed in down the street. A sheetload of empty condos next to ones just sprouting from the ground.
Soooooo many trusted what David & Co. preached and they are paying for it now. My nephew does construction north of Boston and he says they stopped building condos and are putting up apartment buildings now. Lower rents coming?
Ah, yes, one reason I made sure that my mortgage did not include escrow for p.tax & ins. The other is that I could better manage investment return on the funds until the payments were due.
Not suprising that their forecasts continually revise... they base their analysis on touchy-feely things like "all RE is local" and "American Dream" and "location, location, location".
Vast majority of Realtwhores are completely clueless about finance in general and RE fianance in particular. So not surprising they would be side-swiped by credit mkt fundamentals' impact on prop values (or any kind of analysis that involves, like, y'know numbers and stuff).
BTW - if someone has or knows where to find that episode of the Simpsons where Marge becomes a RE agent, sells that murder mansion, gold jacket, etc. please do share a link.
I wasn't a big Simpsons watcher but that episode was epic. They must've hired someone from the biz to consult because it was spot-on. Hilarious!
Well at least they are consistent in their wrongness.
NAR, uv bn pwn3d!1!!!
Hilarious headlines. Has anyone run a regression on NAR and the actual numbers?
That would be a great thing for the press to point out in the opening paragraph of further NAR pronouncements.
In Alameda County, 21.4 <a href=http://www.mlive.com/business/ambizdaily/bizjournals/index.ssf?/base/abd-3/118940641443180.xml">percent of the 4,864 properties on the multiple-listing service as of Sept. 3 were in foreclosure, owned by a bank or in negotiations between the buyer and the seller to accept an amount less than face value as payoff of their mortgage, known as a short sale, according to Movoto, a real estate research firm and brokerage based in Redwood City.
In Contra Costa County, 29.6 percent of the 6,365 properties listed were distressed, and 29 percent of 2,403 Solano County properties were posted because sellers are in distress, Movoto found.
I'm just waiting for NAR to spin lower sales as meaning lower foreclosures.
Dean Baker summarizes the subprime problems are contained nonsense:
London Times
Squeeze hit Golden Key (SIV)gets a $1.5 bn helping hand from BarCap
Barclays Capital injects $1.5bn into Golden Key - Times Online
Wheat Rises to Record $9 a Bushel on Crop Concerns
Red Skelton - Texas Real Estate
YouTube
- Broadcast Yourself.
allow me to be the first, with a double-digit forecast at the peak-
Corporate default rate drops in August, but Moody’s sees a spike - Financial Week
With 4 months to go, the picture for 2007 is more or less clear - although there is still potential for nasty surprises, I think CR's forecast will hold. What's more interesting is housing in 2008. NAR forecasts 6.27, but I think the housing will be more depressed next year than now.
NAR = No accountability rendered.
Just like current administration.
Idiots !
And to think I wanted to revise my 4.9mm number downward. What was I thinking? /sarcasm
I'd love to see a study on why certain groups somehow fail to see obvious macro hanges in market conditions.
Abe, NYC, I agree - housing in 2008 will be worse than 2007 by every significant measure: sales, prices, employment, starts, RI, construction spending - you name it.
Best to all.
CR- you taking the over or under on the HY default rate?
I'll name it -- Misery.
This reminds me of all the spin by the Great Decider on why we went into Iraq and why we are still there.
At least with the NAR its just mostly amusing - since most of collateral damage to naive and gullible people has only been financial.
-K
The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
Do you really expect them to predict anything that would discourage buyers of RE?
We all know that the "Association" is there to promote only the positive. Anyone who believe different, I have some swampland that I will be glad to sell you. The NAR predicts that tighter lending standards will be extraordinarily good for swampland! Buy now! The extremely high inventory means that you have many choices!
Mark
Integrity my man, Integrity!!
People believe that Gold, Platinum & etc. are the most scarce commodity in the world, BUT they are wrong, the most scarce commodity is INTEGRITY.
Scientist believe that universe revolves around sun, BUT they are wrong, the universe always has and will revolve around MONEY.
I rest my case.
Do you really expect them to predict anything that would discourage buyers of RE?
Phase Two: NABREAB - National Amalgamated Brotherhood of Real Estate Agents & Brokers. Otherwise known as 'The Brotherhood'.
I'm waiting for the NAR to hire Al Gonzales as chief spokesman in an effort to restore credibility.
Don't be so hard on the NAR's economists. They aren't any worse than anyone else. When it comes to predictive accuracy, the average economist makes Bill O'Reilly look like a fountain of perspicacity.
What housing slump? David Lereah said "All Real Estate is Local".
It must be good in his neighborhood.....NOT
Perhaps the buyers are still waiting on the sidelines.....NOT
Sales are at a stand still here in Bow,NH. 12 lot subdivisions with only 3 homes built and no buyers for the other lots , but yet a new development is being roughed in down the street. A sheetload of empty condos next to ones just sprouting from the ground.
Soooooo many trusted what David & Co. preached and they are paying for it now. My nephew does construction north of Boston and he says they stopped building condos and are putting up apartment buildings now. Lower rents coming?
When it comes to predictive accuracy, the average economist makes Bill O'Reilly look like a fountain of perspicacity.
Bill O'Reilly would be all over you if you said that too his face. He would tell you he does wear deodorant and an anti-perspicacity too.
WSJ
Mortgage Lender's Bankruptcy May Threaten Thousands of Homeowners (Any comment from NAR?)
Mortgage Lender's Bankruptcy May Threaten Thousands of Homeowners - WSJ.com
Ah, yes, one reason I made sure that my mortgage did not include escrow for p.tax & ins. The other is that I could better manage investment return on the funds until the payments were due.
Real Estate may be local, but the reduction in available credit due to tighter lending standards and BK lenders is nationwide
Not suprising that their forecasts continually revise... they base their analysis on touchy-feely things like "all RE is local" and "American Dream" and "location, location, location".
Vast majority of Realtwhores are completely clueless about finance in general and RE fianance in particular. So not surprising they would be side-swiped by credit mkt fundamentals' impact on prop values (or any kind of analysis that involves, like, y'know numbers and stuff).
Most Realtwhores are freakin' pathetic.
lol dryfly.
also, are there any earlier 'it'll get better soon' quotes from the NAR/David Lereah ?
BTW - if someone has or knows where to find that episode of the Simpsons where Marge becomes a RE agent, sells that murder mansion, gold jacket, etc. please do share a link.
I wasn't a big Simpsons watcher but that episode was epic. They must've hired someone from the biz to consult because it was spot-on. Hilarious!
"In the long run we are all dead" - J M Keynes
I'll go with Clubber Lang's forecast from Rocky III:
"Prediction? Pain ..."
"The comedians at"
I vote for that to be the standard intro whenever you intro these guys. Love it!