NAHB: Builder Confidence Falls to Record Low in September
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 09/18/2007 - 9:00am (70 comments)
in
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wow first
Does this mean we've hit bottom?
Hmmm one wonders who might play connect the dots with this and the foreclosure spike in August...one wonders...
Interesting article on going cold turkey on financial addiction:
Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs - Cold turkey for financial addiction
Well... if you can't sell the inventory you have it kind of makes sense to stop building.
The market coming back to balance != the first seal of the apocalypse.
20 IS ZERO
Really the scale goes from 20-80, considering some are always optimists and some are always pessimists.
Seen 20% mortgage rates, wasn't like this.
Also interesting book some of y'all might wanna check out:
America's Suicidal Statecraft
The Self Destruction of a Superpower
Amazon.com: America's Suicidal Statecraft: The self-destruction of super power (9781419638190): James Cumes: Books
"We are now at or near to the bottom." Grape Kool-Aid. Yum. Yum.
Have the homebuilders tried slapping some nobel prize winning economists on this problem?
I suggest two. It seems to me they have a long term capital management problem on their hands.
Good news and bad news.
The Grape Kool-Aid is out!
There's plenty of Raspberry Reaction left though!
Seriously, that's a flavor, lol.
Hmmm... lets see
Ara Hovnanian says we're near a bottom.
Lehman Bros say the credit crisis is largely behind us.
VS .
Homebuilders index at historic lows.
If you believe the homebuilders index is a forward looking guage, then, Lehman Bros and Ara are full of "HorseHockey". If not, any chance they are right. I'm in HorseHockey camp.
--
Further corroboration that the economy may have entered the recession and it may be worse than the 1980-82 Double Dip recessions.
Jas
Interesting that the graphic shows the low in builder confidence towards the end of a recession. We don't have one right now nor does ECRI forecast one.
Makes me even more sure we won't have one at this point.
O-Joe
This is just the beginning. Check this out for reset hell coming:
Trading Stocks, Indexes, Sectors with Kaltbaum
O-Joe : that's a charming analysis. Unfortunately, the takeaway is that we have much lower to go in the NAHB, not that we aren't going to have a recession. But you keep trying, otherwise, you might have to change your name.
what's with the horsehockey analogy... that you don't want to be riding the horse when he steps out onto the ice?
OT- Just too evil not to bring up,
"Bankrupt Melville-based American Home Mortgage is attempting to seize as much as $27 million that employees had set aside from their paychecks as retirement savings, and if it is successful, the workers may never see the money again."
Anybody can run a company into the ground, but it takes a true bastard to condemn him/herself to hell in the process. I can only assume these folks live in well protected houses and are devout atheists.
I mean Jesus.
Inside scoop from a close friend. 9 houses have sold in Las Vegas so far this month. That is right 9!!!
A local market analysts commenting on today's trading volume.
"Trading volume is considerably lighter than normal. Possibly related to today's Fed meeting and traders wanting to wait for the decision before making any big trades".
Gee, you think??? Where do they find these guys????
But I thought Hovanian just showed everyone the silver bullet?
"Makes me even more sure we won't have one at this point."
LMAO keep 'em coming O-Joe !
The data being this bad this early in the housing bust only shows how much WORSE it will become. Duh!
Inside scoop from a close friend. 9 houses have sold in Las Vegas so far this month. That is right 9!!!
Ministry of Truth | 09.18.07 - 1:41 pm |
your BS'in us , right...
LOL... it's a good one of true
really roflmao
Calculated Risk
Well?
Are you ready for the panic?
Nothing you have seen in your life has a chance of helping understand what is coming.
We are less than 30 days away.
9 in Vegas seems implausible. I mean parents "sell" to children, long term deals finally go through, etc etc.
With a population that large 9 just can't cover the outlier sales. I'm sure whatever numbers he/she saw don't tell the whole story.
Metrics Wonk,
You may want to read the entire article. That line you quoted is misleading.
The retirement "savings" in question weren't the contributions of run-of-the-mill workers. It was pay that people making more then $200k per year had set aside in a trust owned by the company to lower their tax liability.
American Home Mortgage isn't screwing Joe Sixpack out of a pension, they're screwing wealthy tax dodgers out of money they tried to shelter.
Well, knock me over with a feather.
I bet 20 is not the floor.
gng, it seems pretty clear they misconstrued the fund to their employees given the past behavior. They bad actors whether it be on the front end or the back.
Next up Benny and the Bubble Blowers.
Starring: Currency Debasement, Raging Inflation, Wealth Illusion, and Moral Hazard.
I wonder if the Fed's models include political variables (e.g. iran bombing). If oil goes into triple digits, any easing is going backfire.
Metrics,
Granted on the bad actor status but please also grant the point that is isn't the working stiff getting the shaft here, it's the guys who are much more used to being the shaftor than the shaftee.
A reading of 20 is like the SATs. You get that many points for handing the form in. Areading of below 20 and Ara and Angelo's faces will be on milk cartons.
hmmm at 197 visitors about 25 minutes out or so...I will go with 257
Next post up with mandatory Fed abuse in 20 minutes? 294 visitorsfor 25bp. 320 visitorsfor 50bp and 349 (new record) for the OMG events of 0 or 75bp.
Thanks gng for the AHM clarification, just shows there's two sides to every story. The headline sure made it appear that the average employee was getting screwed. I suspect the employees that sheltered their money knew the risks...but now are claiming they didn't.
Remember that to get to most new home developments these days, you drive past hundreds of the homes these guys built in 2005/2006 plastered with "For-Sale- REDUCED AGAIN!" and "Bank Owned Oppourtunity" signs out front. I am shocked that any potential buyer passes through that gauntlet and makes it to the model homes.
energy - If the current administration has taught me anything it's that you should never grant points in the face of overwhelming evidence. Otherwise the terrorists win.
"The data being this bad this early in the housing bust only shows how much WORSE it will become. Duh!"
inOrlando:
By the time the home builder confidence was this low in 1991, the RTC was buying out foreclosures left and right to prevent a REAL financial panic and meltdown of the RE market.
This time around, there isn't even a need for a government RTC. The only thing going on rioght now is private salvage buying by homevestors etc. If there isn't even a need for RTC, there is no real cause for fear. And even the 1990s downturn with RTC was still relatively mild in terms of financial panics this country has seen so far.
Why worry now?
O-Joe
Robert,
I like your book there, sir!
Well, I called 19 last month . . . looks like I'm out a can of Spam.
Ahh crap I read "making more than 200,000" per year as "more than 20,000" per year.
Well ok... but hey mister moneybags from monopoly doesn't deserve to get scammed either. Heh, but yeah if you make in excess of 200k a year and 36k is "integral" to your retirement plans then you really need to stop getting a new Beamer every other year.
Anything below 20 is Chicago casting negative votes.
Get ready to party like it's 1998 guys!!!
BAILOUT! BAILOUT! BAILOUT...
O-Joe I try not to tease bulls when I'm bearish. But basing the current outlook on "hey, can't be worse than the 90's right?" kind of overlooks the whole "Hmm this internet thing sounds kinda cool, maybe we should get a PC?" economic explosion that took place.
The New Economy is dead and buried.
Next post up with mandatory Fed abuse in 20 minutes? 294 visitorsfor 25bp. 320 visitorsfor 50bp and 349 (new record) for the OMG events of 0 or 75bp.
Wheres the 'raise 25bp' choice ?
Suicidal, but boy would it earn respect in certain circles.
RayOnTheFarm, they'd have to give him a Secret Service detail.
Lyon,that isn't a silver bullet,it's a suppository.
Wow, economics as a spectator sport, what a brave new world.
OMG , the FED did what?
Y.S.Wayne | 09.18.07 - 1:48 pm | #
You make it sound like a blockbuster movie premier.
But I totally agree.
Good seat check
Bucket of buttered popcorn check
Large soda check
Large German Shepard to watch property - check
sdtfs,
LOL some of us are this geeky all of the time, welcome to the neighborhood [twitch, twitch]
o-joe, even a meteor striking the earth would make you even more sure we won't have a recession.
I should have completed the quotation, What a brave new world with such people in it!
World Economy at `Scariest Point Since Depression,' Says Penner
By David M. Levitt and Bryan Keogh
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The world economy ``is probably at its scariest point since the Depression'' as fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis crimps access to credit, said Ethan Penner, a pioneer of the $600 billion commercial mortgage-backed securities market in the early 1990s.
``We're probably at the closest point to a big meltdown, a depression-type meltdown than we have been in our lives,'' said Penner, 46, now a principal at real estate fund management firm Lubert-Adler Partners LP in Philadelphia, during a speech at a Real Estate Media Inc. conference in New York.
[snip]
bail out
I feel we all should be in Time Square watching a ball drop.
50 basis point cut
that is what the dow is saying alrighty!
I haven't had a chance to watch this yet, so I admit I don't know his full position, but has anyone seen the Jim Rogers video on Bloomberg.com.
The title made me laugh:
Rogers Says U.S. in Recession, Fed Should Raise Rates
Any chance that bow tie is on too tight, Jim?
The Fed site has crashed. Can anyone post the FOMC statement if they got it?
1/2 point!
Do their opinions still count if their co. is bk?
U.S. Federal Open Market Committee Statement: Text - Bloomberg.com
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 4-3/4 percent.
Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Todays action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year. However, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Developments in financial markets since the Committees last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; Eric Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 50-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 5-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Cleveland, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.
Getting back to the NAHB chart, I would've thought 2002 - 2005 would've shown a bigger upswing than what's shown here?
How can core inflation improve when there is nothing in it?
Is it just me or does it look like the crack is wearing off rather soon as SPX tops out at 1505 and can't push higher?
Oil $90 Gold $800 this week?
Feds keeps the bullshit flowing...
Lower interest rates to keep creating and selling the American Dream so more middle class citizens can buy more stuff and get deeper into debt.
Crony capitalism is alive and well !
If you consider every dollar as a share of USA, Inc., your investment just tanked.
Many people around the world will be arriving to this conclusion.
All the Fed did was lowered the burn rate of carrying junk on the books.
Devaluing the dollar will only make that junk less moveable. And now long rates
for all are headed up to price in the devaluing dollar.
The credit crunch just got worse.
The banks just bought some time.
Wow....440 Visitors?