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Nouriel is a breath of fresh air in financial reporting. I hope he never loses that academic quality.
I saw that video a while back. Greenspan very masterfully dodges the "hit on savers from interest rate cuts" question.
Lowe's sees yearly EPS at low end, slightly below prior view
The Federal Reserve Board
Legal Interpretations
Federal Reserve Act
2007 Letters (23A Exemptions)
Here
From Mad-Eye's recent survey of subprime loan servicers:
In addition, although some subprime servicers have recently begun to make outbound calls to borrowers that will experience reset in the near future, the majority of large servicers continue to rely on more passive letter-based contact with borrowers. This is of particular concern given the potential size of the problem - some servicers reported that they could experience in a given quarter interest rate resets on loans which constitute up to 15% of their portfolio during the period from late
2007 to early 2008. In addition, data from a limited subset of servicers indicated that for loans that were current prior to reset and were not modified, the average delinquency rate after reset was in the 5% to 15% range. However, these results are for loans that were made in early 2005. Those loans were of generally higher
quality than loans that were issued later in 2005 and in 2006 and had greater refinancing opportunities as they were not as impacted by the negative home price environment.
Based on the survey results, Moody's is concerned that the number of modifications that will be performed in the future by subprime servicers on loans facing reset may be lower than what will be needed to significantly mitigate losses in subprime pools backing rated securitizations. In light of this risk and the current performance
of the collateral, Moody's expects further negative rating activity on subprime residential mortgage backed
securities issued in late 2005 and in 2006.
my memory is hazy but i think i read something this morning that quoted a dude from Litton saying that most servicers are not at all set up to deal with this issue and are scrambling to do so too late, and even though their servicing costs are up, Litton is moving people to the mod squad rather than laying off.
"We read the writing on the wall 12 to 18 months ago," Ross [Litton dude]said. If servicers did not have a loan modification plan in place 12 months ago, they could face internal pressure, since it takes approximately one year to implement that type of strategy, he added.
Roubini said that housing prices would need to fall 50% in order to reach historic price-rent ratios.
This, to me, is the single biggest factor that will lead to a massive drop in real housing prices.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
September 2007
"The production index dipped from 21.6 to 4.5."
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, September 2007 - Economic Data - FRB Dallas
i read an article on Bloomberg about an hr ago that said CFC had performed about 25000 loan modifications. CR any comment?
actually its 35000 home loan mods.
"Roubini said that housing prices would need to fall 50% in order to reach historic price-rent ratios."
How about if rents double?
Has anything interesting been happening to the owner-equivalent rent component of the CPI?
CNBC's commentator is priceless at the end of the interview. She sees bad news for holders of those homebuilder stocks. No comment about any other vested interest: homeowners, construction jobs, land owners, home loan origination and servicing industry, etc.
Moody's Rates Standard Pacific Debt 'Junk'
Expired
Some ABX deterioration in some of the BBB's today with new lows, modest deterioration in others and recovery in the A's and up...
Was that debt by Standard Pacific some of the 'death spiral' convertables?
Here's what it said:
"Home builder Standard Pacific Corp. Monday said it intends to offer $100 million of convertible senior subordinated notes due 2012. The company plans to enter into convertible note hedge transactions that are intended to reduce the potential dilution of the stock upon conversion of the notes. Also, Standard Pacific said it intends to enter into a share lending agreement with an affiliate of Credit Suisse. The builder said its board has eliminated the quarterly cash dividend, resulting in savings of about $10 million annually...
"convertible note hedge transactions that are intended to reduce the potential dilution of the stock upon conversion of the notes"
What in the hay is that? It almost sounds like the company is shorting its own stock.
Death spiral with short hedge??
"How about if rents double?"
Uh yeah, how about if salaries and wages double along with rents? I better go demand that I get my 100% raise right now.
Buy now or be priced out forever...ahaha right sure.
It's sad that a comedian conducted a better interview than just about anyone else who has had the chance.
Billy Hill,
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: AUGUST 2007
Within shelter, the indexes for rent and for owners' equivalent rent each rose 0.2 percent; while the index for lodging away from home, declined 0.6 percent.
Motel 6 is going to need more than a "We'll leave the light on for you" ad campaign to pull out of this one it seems.
Don't worry though, assuming Accor still owns the chain that is.
Accor Profits Bounce As It Unloads Hotels
Don't worry though, assuming Accor still owns the chain that is.
They do & Red Roof too.
NY Times
The Loan That Keeps on Taking
Too bad Tanta has gone to bed tonite. Maybe she will hack at this tomorrow.
The Loan That Keeps On Taking - NY Times