OT but speaking of confessionals the Countrywide CEO cashed $138 million worth of stock options before firm went down the tubes.

The 'tan man' is an unethical and despicable piece of shit that needs to go to jail.

I confess!

I lost the Sheriff!
But I did not lose the Deputy!

I Shot the Sheriff

I just put up some charts of natural gas on my homepage for those interested.

"including those underpinned by U.S. mortgages"
Humm Now the US is the whipping boy for every other country's write-downs. Time for US to mark to market or lose all confidence in our own market. LOL

The News Journal Wilmington, Delaware

An interesting follow-up on NetBank's closing quotes ING's CEO Arkadi Kuhlmann...

delawareonline.com | Wilmington | The News Journal

call me crazy, but i took the money out of ING after reading about the buyout. my main problem with internet banks is that i can't go to a branch to get my paper money if i need to. their security model is very sophisticated but convoluted, too.

i agree that Mozillo would be a nice poster child for the mortgage industry bashing, so can't blame GM from NYT for going a bit overboard. not all that Enron did was so bad after all, and i still think that accomplices (banks extending credit) got away with murder.

will UBS loss roil the markets tomorrow? sounds like they are leaking the story to test the public before making it official.

CNNMoney.com

Could they lose $900K?
When NetBank was shut the founders of a young software company worried they could be forced into a cash crisis. $1 million in NetBank...

Will NetBank's closing send a small firm into a cash crisis? - Sep. 29, 2007

gm | 09.30.07 - 6:32 pm |
"call me crazy, but i took the money out of ING after reading about the buyout. my main problem with internet banks is that i can't go to a branch to get my paper money if i need to. their security model is very sophisticated but convoluted, too."

How about this!

"Would you be prepared to keep your life savings in an account that could be frozen for up to 60 days if the bank thought its financial stability was threatened? After the events of last weekend, few would answer with an unequivocal "yes". However, that is exactly the position in which savers with internet bank Egg now find themselves."

"Money has this week been poring over the terms and conditions of many of the UK's most popular e-savings accounts and found that the banks have no liability if their website is brought down. Others have terms and conditions that allow them to shut down the website to halt mass withdrawals.

Egg, owned by the US giant Citibank, has a clause that allows it to stop customers removing money if it thinks its "financial stability" is threatened. It says: "In order for us to run our business lawfully and with prudent liquidity levels, in exceptional circumstances, we may need to suspend your right to take money out of an account for a period of up to 60 days."

This is a good read.

Hard-boiled Egg stuns savers |
Money |
The Guardian

"NetBank was one of several financial partners of the US Airways. The Tempe based airline offered promotions such as 4,000 miles to open a NetBank checking account, 4,000 miles for a money market account and 5,000 miles to deposit at least $15,000 into a NetBank CD...."

NetBank Fails, Assets Disgorged To FDIC, ING - The Consumerist

...the founders of a young software company...

Makes you wonder how many wealthy geeks have all their money in 'net banks, given their total faith in technology.

Topher,

The bank made the change last December

This might cause some to wonder if Egg or it's parent, Citibank, may have anticpated the turmoil now thrashing the financial markets. All I can say is.....hmmmmmmm...

Private student loan bubble could burst

The near doubling in the cost of a college degree the past decade has produced an explosion in high-priced student loans that could haunt the U.S. economy for years.

While scholarship, grant money and government-backed student loans -- whose interest rates are capped -- have taken up some of the slack, many families and individual students have turned to private loans, which carry fees and interest rates that are often variable and up to 20 percent.

Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor

FDIC's NetBank press release:

"The FDIC estimates the cost of this transaction to its Deposit Insurance Fund to be approximately $110 million."

FDIC: Press Releases - PR-81-2007 9/28/2007

From FDIC's internet site earlier this year:

"The FDIC's contingent loss reserve at year-end 2006, which covers anticipated losses from failures in 2007, was $111,000 million. However, the staff currently estimates that failures in 2007 will cost about $19 million. The projected contingent loss reserve at year-end 2007 (to cover 2008 failures) is $108 million. Therefore, the projected change in the contingent loss reserve and the cost of failures this year require only $16 million in 2007 loss provisions ($108 million + $19 million - $111 million). Projections for 2008 and beyond assume that losses from failures equal the balance of the contingent loss reserve at the start of each year."

And,

"Two-year stress event simulations were run based on data through December 31, 2006, affecting institutions specializing in residential mortgages, subprime loans, commercial real estate mortgages, commerical and industrial loans, and consumer loans. The results of each simulation, which were derived from historical stress events, demonstrate that banks are well positioned to withstand a significant degree of financial adversity. In no case did the stress simulation results raise significant concerns for the insurance fund. However, the effects were not evaluated beyond a two-year horizon. Also, the historical experience underlying the stress scenarios may be less applicable in the future, so conclusions drawn from the stress analyses should be treated with some degress of caution."

I CONCUR!

Topher, what you mention is exactly what happened in Argentina. The money was still showing in everyones accounts but there was a daily limit of how much could be removed for their accounts. All this while the Argentinian Peso devalued to 1/3.

FFDIC-

Soooo, NetBank alone cost $110M and total loss reserves for the year are $111M... no too reassuring. What are the implications here?

BTW, you are a great contributor to this blog, thanks!

While I'm at it, how big a loss is $2.6B for UBS? How big is that pool of assets that they've written down?

My favorite September editorial...

NY Times 9/30/2007
Things Go Better With Rules

EDITORIAL; Things Go Better With Rules - NY Times

that's how it should be done, isn't it? If something did not happen in last two years, there is very slim chance that it will happen now Smile

About insider selling-comment for km4

I am no fan of CFC or its CEO. However, there is nothing illegal or unethical about insider selling or cashing out stock options unless the CEO is misleading investors about the companies prospects, which in itself is illegal. Over the last several years, the SEC has upped the disclosure requirements for company officers selling stocks and/or cashing out options. I think that they now need to make disclosures in something like 6 days. A number of stock newsletters specialize in pointing out insider buying and selling to investors. There are also rules against insiders buying or selling during earnings season.

Lost in Translation
Yes, and there are still plenty of old FDIC farts making $150,000 plus who can recall the 80s horrors which makes this 2007 reporting even more stupid in my jaded eyes. Maybe a 26 year old contractor wrote it.

FFDIC: From the CNN Money link about a software startup with $1MM in deposits at Netbank:
He and his team - who formed the company after a subprime mortgage lender where they worked was sold - have built the 10-employee company's sales to more than $10 million since it was founded in 2000. Ironically, given that lenders' catering to subprime borrowers have led to a spike in home loan defaults, subprime lead generation software is among the services Applied Cognetics sells.

Bill Threatens Stock-Option Tax Break

Sen. Carl Levin wants financials and tax returns to show the same stock-option expenses.
Sarah Johnson, CFO.com
September 28, 2007
Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) introduced a bill Friday that would change the way companies deduct stock-option expenses on their tax bills. The legislation, his third try at such a bill, could have added momentum because of the recent regulatory focus on accounting for stock options. Lawmakers' concerns about the disparity between executive and worker pay could also move the bill further along.

Levin criticized the "growing chasm" between executive pay and that of the rank-and-file in a press release announcing his bill. He also called the current accounting standards and tax rules for stock options "off-kilter," claiming they have led to "huge tax windfalls for companies that pay their executives with large stock grants."
Bill Threatens Stock-Option Tax Break - - CFO.com

“Chancellor staged an embarrassing climbdown by pledging to guarantee only first £35,000 of savings held in British banks “

Alistair Darling will make the promise today as the first step in reforming the financial services compensation system in the wake of the Northern Rock bank affair.
It was the paucity of the current guarantee – which fully protects only the first £2,000 of savings and 90pc of the next £33,000 – that prompted the queues of savers at Northern Rock branches when it emerged the struggling bank had been forced to call on the Bank of England for help.
Before last week's Labour Party conference, Mr Darling said he was considering expanding the guarantee to cover the first £100,000 of deposits. "My job is to protect ordinary savers," he said. "So we need to strengthen protection for ordinary savers – to give them confidence, ensuring that their savings in a bank or building

Chancellor reconsiders savings pledge - Telegraph

The rest. Sorry got cut off.

to give them confidence, ensuring that their savings in a bank or building society are guaranteed."

Yet the £35,000 guarantee that comes into effect today means only an extra £3,300 of savers' money is protected.

OT:
Chancellor reconsiders savings pledge

By David Litterick and Edmund Conway
Last Updated: 12:29am BST 01/10/2007

The Chancellor has staged an embarrassing climbdown by pledging to guarantee only the first £35,000 of savings held in British banks and building societies rather than the £100,000 he originally suggested.

Chancellor reconsiders savings pledge - Telegraph

WTF ? The whole thrust of Labour was that they were competent, adult, serious - this whipsawing really damages the government's cred. Anyway doesn't he know that a election was in the offing ? Well, it isn't now..

-K

my main problem with internet banks is that i can't go to a branch to get my paper money if i need to.

Is State Farm Bank considered an internet bank ?

I am aware that some helpful services are provided to customers of SFB by the local SF agents ( stuff like filling out the paperwork to open accounts / CDs / etc ).

So USB is writing off that much, what will Citi do? That junk this Q(I guess all the PE deals got pushed back to keep them off the 10k), PE next Q (based off 1st Data price) could be a $1-3 billion loss.

If you're gonna lose, lose big I guess

Continued robust growth in emerging markets points to persistent upward pressure on commodity demand and, hence, commodity prices. For the industrialised world, inflationary pressures may therefore remain elevated even if growth is slowing. Whereas in the late 1990s US growth was strong but inflation was low, there's now the risk that growth weakens with inflation remaining stickily high. What, then, should central banks do? Cut interest rates in the hope that inflation eventually subsides? Or leave rates unchanged, risking a collapse in economic activity?

For the Federal Reserve, rapid rate cuts might eventually have to be the order of the day. Politically, it's difficult to imagine US policymakers presiding over rising unemployment and shrinking economic activity, whatever the rate of inflation. The story, though, might not end there. Falling US interest rates would make the control of inflation even more difficult within the emerging world, eventually increasing the temptation to "go it alone" and leave the dollar to its own destiny. Might this lead to a dollar collapse, a loss of US monetary credibility and the end of an economic pax Americana?

Perhaps this is a fairy-tale too far. I sense, though, that recent events are not a one-off, a repeat of LTCM. Instead, the story unfolding is one full of sub-plots, geographical intricacies and economic dependencies. It may finish happily ever after. But it might, instead, end up like one of those novels from my namesake, a horrific mixture of weak growth, sticky inflation and, ultimately, a loss of confidence in the dollar's status as a reserve currency.

Stephen King: The great American economic horror story -
Business Comment, Business - The Independent

No kidding.

UBS went kitchen sink rather than the smoke and mirrors GS and BSC went for earlier in September.

Commodity boom?

Not necessarily.

Ethanol Boom Runs Out of Gas
By Lauren Etter and Ilan Brat
Word Count: 1,161 | Companies Featured in This Article: Archer-Daniels-Midland, VeraSun Energy

Ethanol's frenzied growth over the past year is coming to a halt -- at least for now.

The price of ethanol has fallen by 30% over the past few months as a glut of the corn-based fuel looms, while the price of ethanol's primary component, corn, had risen. That's squeezing ethanol companies' profits and pushing some ethanol plants to the brink of bankruptcy.

Financing for new ethanol plants is drying up in many areas, and plans to build are being delayed or canceled across the Midwest, as investors increasingly decide that only the most-efficient ethanol plants are worth their money.

link

Ethanol boom fades as oversupply depresses prices

"EVADA, Iowa: The ethanol boom of recent years — which spurred a frenzy of distillery construction, record corn prices, rising food prices and hopes of a new future for rural America — may be fading.

Only last year, farmers here spoke of a biofuel gold rush, and they rejoiced as prices for ethanol and the corn used to produce it set records.

But companies and farm cooperatives have built so many distilleries so quickly that the ethanol market is suddenly plagued by a glut, in part because the means to distribute it have not kept pace. The average national ethanol price on the spot market has plunged 30 percent since May, with the decline escalating sharply in the last few weeks.

"The end of the ethanol boom is possibly in sight and may already be here," said Neil E. Harl, an economics professor emeritus at Iowa State University who lectures on ethanol and is a consultant for producers. "This is a dangerous time for people who are making investments."

While generous government support is expected to keep the output of ethanol fuel growing, the poorly planned overexpansion of the industry raises questions about its ability to fulfill the hopes of President George W. Bush and other policy makers to serve as a serious antidote to the nation's heavy reliance on foreign oil."

Link

also

Study: Ethanol Boom Could Bust

So we've got no reserves whatsoever for the next bank to fail....

And there will be another.

Maxed Moma-
Actually hon the FDIC does have reserves for the future but they are not unlimited reserves as we all know. Congress will have to ponie up funds at come future point just as they did when Wild Bill Siedman was chairman in the 80s and the fund basically ran out of money.

I think the SEC might be interested in how LEH, GS, and BSC came up with their valuations in light of UBS's large write-down.

Of course, the SEC doesn't know for sure that their positions are similar, but smoke and fire and all that.

Financial Times.com

US court to rule on third-party liability

"Professor Donald Langevoort of Georgetown University Law Center, who calls the case the "Roe v Wade" of securities law says the court could choose a middle path between shareholders and companies."
FT.com / US & Canada - US court to rule on third-party liability

Ethanol's frenzied growth over the past year is coming to a halt -- at least for now.

Hey vader, about f****** time.

Not all grain ethanol production is a 'total waste'... just most of it. I could go into a bunch of techy details but suffice it to say almost all the recently built small 'dry grind' plants are a waste. Larger wet mills with co-gen facilities waste little of the food value of the grain and extract the lower nutritional value starch for ethanol (or HFCS sweeteners).

Someday biofuels (& more importantly 'bio-feedstocks' for polymers & chemical reagents) will 'make cents'... but only when they economically crack low cost cellulose and that is a long way off.

I've watched these plants being built and wondered what the heck are they thinking... now I know, they weren't.

I know this one will disappoint Tanta, but seems like Paul Krugman is also 'bought out by the CFC shorts'.

Economist's View: Paul Krugman: Enron's Second Coming?

Oh my !!! Here is an extract from Krugman's article, where he cited GM's article:

"At this point it appears that Mr. Mozilo achieved the rare feat of victimizing three distinct groups.

First were the borrowers. As The Times’s Gretchen Morgenson reported in August, Countrywide often led customers to “high-cost and sometimes unfavorable loans” that, among other things, generated “outsize fees to company affiliates providing services on the loans.”"

All I can say is CFC shorts are looking good for monday morning. Poor Tanta Sad

dryfly

yep.

Latest National Geographic Article claims that for every one unit of energy put into corn ethanol you got 1.3 out.

Sugar Cane by comparison is 1 in 8 out.

Also Corn releases a lot of CO2 in to the air, and uses fertilizer in the corn production as well as gas to produce.

National Geographic - 404 Error - Page Not Found

"Biofuels as currently rendered in the U.S. are doing great things for some farmers and for agricultural giants like Archer Daniels Midland and Cargill, but little for the environment. Corn requires large doses of herbicide and nitrogen fertilizer and can cause more soil erosion than any other crop. And producing corn ethanol consumes just about as much fossil fuel as the ethanol itself replaces. Biodiesel from soybeans fares only slightly better. Environmentalists also fear that rising prices for both crops will push farmers to plow up some 35 million acres (14 million hectares) of marginal farmland now set aside for soil and wildlife conservation, potentially releasing even more carbon bound in the fallow fields. "

My poll for September has closed. Charts and predictions of doom and gloom won out (a special doom and gloom chart was prepared in its honor). October's poll is now open.

I would have course offered up a more specific version of doom and gloom had I known of UBS's troubles.

(Who would have thought doom and gloom would have beaten out smoke and mirrors? Oh the humanity!)

FFDIC - you don't think that Netbank is going to tip over the next one? Which makes it all the more likely that the next one tips over? From where I sit, it's looking like a debacle (and I'm here on the ground with the rest of flyover country).

Once the strategy of forced sales failed, this was bound to happen. I cannot see any way that the Netbank failure doesn't result in the slinky having been released on the top stop. The whole industry has been living in a cloud of complacency, but big Netbank depositors will lose money.

For other parties, it's a cash flow issue. FDIC 2nd qtr report. Sept 28th is the date the payments are due from institutions.

Dryfly,

I frequently talk with an investment banker who is trying to raise money for a cellulosic ethanol plant which uses a bacterium to convert wood to hydrocarbons. Whether his plan works well and is economic remains to be seen, but the future is not quite so distant.

Most of the corn grown in America feeds livestock and poultry, I believe. The distillers’ grain that is left over from corn distillation to ethanol can be fed to cattle and the CO2 can be captured and sold to soft drink and beer breweries if any are in the neighborhood.

Entrepreneurs will invent new “lights and whistles” to use any energy that more efficient processes save. Consequently, the demand for energy in advancing societies always increases over the long term. Sad but true.

-from UBS press release-

"Where possible, holdings are marked at the quoted market price. For most sub prime holdings, this is not possible. Valuations therefore mostly use models with observable inputs, where possible, and level 3 valuation models otherwise."

Ethanol Boom Runs Out of Gas

Anyone who follows any of the ethanol wall street pump and dump story stocks could have told you that about, Oh a year ago. Nice to see that the financial news media has noticed and were on top of that.

"I frequently talk with an investment banker"

Don't walk, RUN!

dryfly wrote
... but only when they economically crack low cost cellulose and that is a long way off.

I hope not so long. We (my company and associates) are on our way to achieve that goal. In my opinion, four-five years should be enough. But there are still some "ifs" on our way.

"In my opinion, four-five years should be enough. But there are still some "ifs" on our way."

7 years is the estimates I've seen, maybe the extra couple of years are for the "ifs".

Citigroup sees 60 pct drop in Q3 net income

CEO Charles Prince said in a statement the decline had been driven "by weak performance in fixed-income credit market activities, write-downs in leveraged loan commitments, and increases in consumer credit costs."

Among the principal culprits for the warning were $1.4 billion in pre-tax write-downs on funded and unfunded leveraged loan commitments.

Citi also said it was taking $1.3 billion in pretax losses on the value of subprime mortgage-backed securities it had warehoused to repackage into collateralized debt obligations, and leveraged loans it had planned to repackage into collateralized loan obligation securitizations.

Expired

Kevin: 7 years is the estimates I've seen, maybe the extra couple of years are for the "ifs".

Our role in the project is to solve one of those "ifs" and rigth now it looks like it will be possible very soon.

"Our role in the project is to solve one of those "ifs" and rigth now it looks like it will be possible very soon."

Cool sooner the better.

"Soooo, NetBank alone cost $110M and total loss reserves for the year are $111M... no too reassuring. What are the implications here?"

Deb:
I think FFDIC's post said that the loss reserves of the FDIC were $110,000M, not $110M.

Still, a sizeable chunk, but not the whole shebang.

oops:

meant FDIC's loss reserves were $111,000M not $111M (with Netbank costing $110M)

So to jump-start holiday shopping, the world's largest retailer began cutting prices on toys in its stores on Sunday, September 30, and will be introducing special price cuts on hot toys each week during October.

"It's a little bit earlier and a little bit deeper," Laura Phillips, Wal-Mart's chief toy officer, said of the timing of this year's holiday toy promotions and the size of the price reductions.

Wal-Mart rolls out early holiday toy push
| Reuters

Is that good?

Speaking to journalists in Malta, Trichet referred specifically to comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and said he was not speaking about the last statement by Group of Seven industrialised nations.

"I have said, and I repeat, that I've noted with extreme attention that the U.S. Treasury Secretary and ... the Federal Reserve have said a strong dollar is in U.S. interests," Trichet said.

ECB's Trichet-notes U.S. support for strong dollar
| Reuters

Say what you mean and mean what you say Hank & Benny. Not sure but I think Trichethe just called them a bunch of liars.

"The Treasury Secretary today reiterated America's strong-dollar policy" has for a very long time been understood to mean "the US government said again today that it wants the dollar to depreciate asap", and traders have then sold it accordingly.

"Not all grain ethanol production is a 'total waste'... just most of it."

Maybe, dryfly, but when are held over a barrel by a cartel on oil prices, I say we burn food in our cars until they are willing to pay equally for that it as for oil.

I just want to know why that report is dated Oct. 2? Reporting from the future...wow.

(Also, from a couple of days ago, Thanks for the information, Steve!)

Best regards,

OT but as the details come out about GM/UAW agreement, I'm wondering about one thing.

Media has assumed Ford and Chrysler will do a similar deal. But over $4 billion of the VEBA funding is from GM convertible bonds. At worst, these bonds coulddilute common stockholders and even become semi-death spiral.

With Ford's credit rating, can they afford to match this deal? Chrysler is alreaady leveraged and has no public securities to match.

From UAW perspective, doesn't it sound desperate to fund health care liabilities with employer security convertible bonds? Isn't that like funding pension plans with CDOs?

What will the funding of this VEBA look like after a deep recession? I think the answer is "bail out."

The toy retailers are hoping for the Halloween and Easter candy effect. They place product so early in the store in the full knowledge that much of the product will be eaten or misplaced by the time Halloween and Easter roll around. Closer to the holiday a second wave of buying begins. It works for candy, why wouldn't it work for toys?

Aren't recessions supposed to happen after a war, not during a war. The government is pumping money into the economy during this war and we are still having economic problems. I hate to see what will happen when we bring the boys home.

It is going to be interesting to see if the early Christmas sales prove to be a good thing. This may be the last Christmas with cheap Chinese toys.

"It's a little bit earlier and a little bit deeper," Laura Phillips, Wal-Mart's chief toy officer, said of the timing of this year's holiday toy promotions and the size of the price reductions.

Thats going to be an ugly move. WM dropped layaway last season, so its a "show me the money" kind of thing. IMHO, they are trying to stab the life out of TRU and KM (Target being a toy retailer, but not as big as the others). TRU and KM will have little choice but to respond in kind.

Yesterday I peeked into a TRU and made a quick assessment on their stock levels going into this holiday period... from what I saw, they must be expecting huge sales this year.

Which lead me to wonder...

Is CC balance-transfer the new MEW ?

wally

The problem is that there are much much better ways than grain ethanol, but some corporations with lots of political clout are blocking them.

Sugar cane is the best at the moment, at nearly 8 times more efficient than corn. Roll that around in your head, you want to burn grain so that some corporate CEO can have his bonus?

Nothing to do with national security all to do with corporate profits.

When it comes to price cuts, 'earlier and deeper' is usually not a good sign.

I just hope they hold off on the damn Christmas music until after Thanksgiving.

The citi article reads as if they're using First Data pricing (1 cent loss) to shift some PE losses to the just ended FY, and I guess in this enviornment it's a smart thing to do.

But the PE hasn't fixed itself & neither has every other SIV they infected themselves with. The upcoming Q should be interesting for citi, maybe after xmas a bottom forms.

  • going forward on the most recent batch of PE deals, you could see BofA face some additional exposure for esoteric reasons.

I forgot, I started writing the last post while an oompah bad was playing "Happy Days are her again" in the only empty tent @ stuttgart's wesen fest.

My irony meter exploded.

The one extra bit in in Citigroup's announcement was at the end:

Citigroup moved its earnings release date to Oct. 15 from Oct. 19. [i.e., from Monday to Friday]

I guess they are still reporting BEFORE the market opens, though....

sorry: I guess my coffee didn't kick in: they've moved up the date from Friday (19) to Monday (15)...

I'm sure citi will report 9am Hawaii time.

Equities are so disassociated from reality right now I wouldn't be surprised to see citi dump then rally into their statement.

Most banks' pain hasn't even started, the upcoming Q should be a bottom for euro banks, Q1 or Q2 for US banks depending on accounting

my understanding is that the market is up today because the news (UBS and Citi) is worse than anybody expected. this is good news because its so bad its got to be the bottom. this market is totally screwed.

While it seems clear that UBS needs to shake up its management, overall their Board of Directors are quite experienced and capable, as can be seen in this interactive IntellectSpace Knowledge Map The page cannot be found . With this experience UBS should be able to bounce back from this loss.

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