"Viscous?" You mean like sticky housing prices? The transport ton-miles rail and road have been bleak for 6 months at least. A favorite leading indicator of mine.
Sorry, Gary. I love Vikas Bajaj and everything, but I'm slumming today.
CNN:
And after two years of rapid-fire deal making, the buyout boom is facing a lull. As a debt crunch starts to squeeze private equity firms, the boost take-private deals have provided for stocks could start to crumble.
Pending home sales are suprisingly up according to NAR. Link to CNN article is below. Not kidding.
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index jumped 5 percent to 102.4 in June, the group announced Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the index would another slip 0.6 percent after a revised 3.7 percent drop in the May report.
I like Gary Shilling, and I think deflation is a distinct possibility, but my reasons are quite different than his. He claims cheap labor, techonology, and excess capacity overseas will be the causes of deflation. This may be true.
I think deflation is a possibility from the simple observation that asset busts and credit crunches have historically created strong deflationary forces (though not necessarily outright deflation). Since inflation is currently relatively low (if you believe all those government lies) then deflation could be a risk if asset prices continue to deteriorate and we have a major credit crunch.
Marc Faber makes a similar argument, but then he goes on to say that the government response to this will lead to hyperinflation.
You have to know how NAR works. You see, they revise down the prior month and then compare the current month to the newly revised number. Then, next month revise down this month, repeat endlessly!
Financial Entertainment Network reporterette declares credit has gone from plentiful to adequate. Tanta isn't the only comedien. Dupont makes Corian. Dow makes the Scrubbing Bubbles to clean those countertops. The stain must be contained.
I have been saying for months that the panic in housing would hit this fall, it looks like I was right. The problem is I don't want to be right, I wish I was wrong. I have two daughters, ages 17 and 11, and I do not want them to have to go through a depression. My mother and father survived the last depression, but it destroyed my fathers parents. John and Lucy lost 500 acres in northern California in the early 1930s and worked as hired help on the property they used to own. Can you say debt slave.
Yes, it is going to be a very bumpy ride, and you better get ready.
Trust me, the PUBLIC DOES NOT HAVE A CLUE, but the rest of you read Calculated Risk, Mortgage Implode, and many many more, so you have no excuse.
Oh, come on, Robert. Granite countertops don't ever stain. They don't ever crack, crunch, crumble, crater or craze. They are elegant monuments to the immortal soul of the American Dream.
Next thing you'll be telling me that people have to pay taxes and insurance every year.
CFC punched through 27, and according to the chart I'm looking at (1/1/2004 - today), there is a gap down to 25.50. Looks like someone rung the bellweather.
The subprime slime is oozing,'' said Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. in Springfield, New Jersey, who correctly predicted the recession in 2001.
But incorrectly predicted the recessions of 1998, 2001, 2004, etc.
Wonder if the mkts will figure this out- dusted off NAR quote from big picture on pendig sales:
"An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined and the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. There is a closer relationship between annual changes in the index and actual market performance than with month-to-month comparisons. As the relatively new index matures and seasonal adjustment factors are refined, the month-to-month comparisons will become more meaningful over time." (emphasis added)
and bigpicture comment:
Bloomberg notes that The existing-home sales report is based on a sample of about 40 percent of transactions in the multiple listing service used by real estate agents, while the pending-sales index [the one we are presently discussing] covers about 20 percent.
Gary,
Why always a political angle. I'm not talking Republican or Dem. The fear mongers talking about decline of western civilization "Depression" and "Runs on the bank", I would bet the majority of them are non US based. Just my opinion.
"Interesting article mentioning Paulson's reactivation of semi-shadowy PPT."
This is not "secret" or "shadowy",
It started when JP Morgan went to the floor in 1929 and bought a big block of US steel I think it was. Stopped the bleeding for that day but we all know how that turned out.
As Einstein said,
"Bodies in motion tend to stay in motion, bodies at rest tend to stay at rest" (probably not an exact quote but close:)
re: PPT
i find it fascinating how the financials and HB's are disintegrating yet the Dow/sp continue to stay aloft. IMHO it can only be the PPT trying to prevent a panic via the headline numbers.
slow, i recalled our discourse the other day re depressions, and took that statement as a shot.
i'm sure there are plenty of people overseas rooting against the us economy, but that's neither here nor there. it doesn't change objective reality.
and the reality is, there are disturbing parallels between our economy today and the economy at that time. and this time, not only the populace, but also the government is up to its eyeballs in debt.
i find it fascinating how the financials and HB's are disintegrating yet the Dow/sp continue to stay aloft. IMHO it can only be the PPT trying to prevent a panic via the headline numbers.
Time for sector rotation from SKF and SRS to TWM or to ultra short consumer stocks ?
From a technical point of view, if the S&P 500 falls through 1450 in a meaningful way, the next support is at 1375, which means it would have broken through not only the 50-day MA, but the 200-day MA as well. Not good.
The S&P looks better, from a technical standpoint, than the Dow 30. The Dow doesn't look happy at all.
The thing at the BSC fund yesterday was a run on them.
It's only one data point. Should expect more in the future (how much more who knows, not me). But it is to early t o say the run on the hedgies has started
sloooowwwwwmotion said: " Major Rumour floating around about an Investment Bank selling Bund to cover margin calls. Not good."
Oh, it gets worse than that. According to my derivatives-analyst source, Merrill-Lynch is rumored to have cut off all warehouse loans to all mortgage originators.
slow, I'm hoping for a depression, and I'm an ex-Navy guy living in California.
A depression is the only sure-fire way to purge the money-induced silliness from our society: Hummers, $100MM baseball contracts, ridiculous asset inflation (homes, stocks).
A depression now results because Alan G. did not let us have our recessions in the mid '90s and early '00s.
Oh, it gets worse than that. According to my derivatives-analyst source, Merrill-Lynch is rumored to have cut off all warehouse loans to all mortgage originators.
Who was it here that was throwing up in their mouth last week? I'm gonna need some Listerine.
And, the '01 recession does not count, IMO, as a real recession, as personal consumption only fell in three of the nine months of the recession (and only 0.2% from peak); in the '90-'91 recession, real personal consumption fell for five straight months (and was off 0.7% from peak).
What do they say about stopped clocks being correct twice a day?
I have no scoop, this is all conjecture. Each of those companies are the kinds of companies that can support high levels of debt. They are reliable cash generating machines. I suspect that the banks will be happier about owning debt in those than they are about Chrysler. But they will still take major earnings hits if they close them.
Having said that, I thought the idea of the banks paying the breakup fee on TXU was an inspired idea.
My guess? Everyone holds on tight on all these deals until after Labor Day and hopes for the best in the market.
One thing folks forget about the high yield market is that when no deals get done a tremendous amount of cash gets built up from interest payments received so time alone can sometimes cure market problems.
It is hard to believe we are watching so many companies disintigrate.
Why is this so hard to believe? Once home prices got out of hand and the cheap credit dried up, their business model became "no longer operative", to borrow a phrase from CR. Some of them also tried to "diversify" into morgage lending during the runup which is now blowing up in their faces. Mix in a bit of Enron-style corruption, and you've got the perfect storm.
I think phase II of the housing downturn will include a public homebuilder shakeout from which maybe 3-5 survivors will emerge. Beazer may be the first to be eliminated, although today's rumor should perhaps be discounted.
You can't "run" on a drive-in bank, you gotta do a 'drive'... and that means you need to be able to afford the gas. The banks are safe.
Since railroads are losing money and can say they are hauling less gyp board, steel, lumber, brick, cement... then obviously commercial construction is not making up the missing volume of residential. Also obviously, residential builders are not hiring the same number of people to install less material. Stuff just does not add up here. It is time to clearly conclude that you cannot trust the underlying statistical reports. Maybe they are rigged, maybe they are misguided - it doesn't matter; they do not add up.
Banker-appreciate your insights as well as your guesses. personally, i don't see how they get done with the current velocity of credit contraction. i've been amazed at the rate of hedge fund implosions occurring almost daily. the mkt can't withstand this much longer. but then again, there's the PPT! sorry, had to throw that in there!
It is time to clearly conclude that you cannot trust the underlying statistical reports. Maybe they are rigged, maybe they are misguided - it doesn't matter; they do not add up
The unadjusted establishment number is pretty close to the sunsequent BED data; it's the "seasonal adjustments" and "birth/death" aspects that queer the number, as often happens at inflection points.
There are a few things that we know for sure:
1. the fed will pump money as the only way out
2. there is a plunge protection team for the markets
3. the credit availability/greed was foolish and 2 million homes will get foreclosed
4. 3/4 of our economy runs on consumers
Based on these things we know:
1) inflation will be attempted, probably beyond reasonable before they realize the futility (this means that prices will skyrocket for food, energy, while many assets will be left behind). It is already exponential!
2) the market will not crash as they will print any amount of money necessary, some small areas will get hit hard, others will be pumped up by the PPT. So betting against the broad market would probably be foolish.
3) The poor will be hurt the most, although many middle class will be brought lower.
4) your savings will become worthless as the money flow progresses through the system and if everyone realizes this it will cause hoarding and precious metals will soar as a wealth protection play.
5) other commodities will also soar, but I expect that the developing world commodities will fall when sales of their luxury (meaning you don't NEED them) products die. so you will have to pick and choose the correct commodities here, probably more food/energy related as opposed to steel, concrete.
Good luck to us all, the central banks and politicians have buried us!
CR & Tanta, there are two good articles in the NYT this morning: check out the David Leonhardt column as well as the Bajaj piece.
I'll also note that arbogast's 7:06am prediction from last night's thread proved to be correct.
Mortgage insurance. Wow.
There's a biggy.
I don't even begin to understand it, but I bet there's billions to be lost right there.
If correct means correct for 30 seconds, I'll take the credit.
I think the Yen carriers were trying to create the illusion of momentum in the morning so they could unload some road kill on the man in the street.
Problem is, there has to be honor among thieves: everyone has to agree not to sell into the rally before it takes hold.
Well, these thieves have some real problems. Those BMW's don't run on air.
Gary Shilling, Dr. Deflation hisself!
"Viscous?" You mean like sticky housing prices? The transport ton-miles rail and road have been bleak for 6 months at least. A favorite leading indicator of mine.
Sorry, Gary. I love Vikas Bajaj and everything, but I'm slumming today.
CNN:
And after two years of rapid-fire deal making, the buyout boom is facing a lull. As a debt crunch starts to squeeze private equity firms, the boost take-private deals have provided for stocks could start to crumble.
Oh, snap! And crackle! And pop!
Why stocks can shake off mortgage meltdown - Aug. 1, 2007
Put your helmets on boys and girls. It's about time for today's version of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.
Robert, I'm still trying to figure out how Dow can be suffering when all the countertops were supposed to be granite.
The recent stuff was granite veneer.
Granite veneer over what? Dow makes particleboard?
Here's the roller coaster we're on. (I think this was posted before)
Home Prices as a roller coaster How does it end?
The counter comments are hysterical...
Pending home sales are suprisingly up according to NAR. Link to CNN article is below. Not kidding.
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index jumped 5 percent to 102.4 in June, the group announced Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the index would another slip 0.6 percent after a revised 3.7 percent drop in the May report.
Pending home sales index points to more sales ahead - Aug. 1, 2007
Gary Shilling, Dr. Deflation hisself!
I like Gary Shilling, and I think deflation is a distinct possibility, but my reasons are quite different than his. He claims cheap labor, techonology, and excess capacity overseas will be the causes of deflation. This may be true.
I think deflation is a possibility from the simple observation that asset busts and credit crunches have historically created strong deflationary forces (though not necessarily outright deflation). Since inflation is currently relatively low (if you believe all those government lies) then deflation could be a risk if asset prices continue to deteriorate and we have a major credit crunch.
Marc Faber makes a similar argument, but then he goes on to say that the government response to this will lead to hyperinflation.
You have to know how NAR works. You see, they revise down the prior month and then compare the current month to the newly revised number. Then, next month revise down this month, repeat endlessly!
Works great for keeping those headlines upbeat!
Financial Entertainment Network reporterette declares credit has gone from plentiful to adequate. Tanta isn't the only comedien. Dupont makes Corian. Dow makes the Scrubbing Bubbles to clean those countertops. The stain must be contained.
Forgot to mention the other great NAR public relations strategy- when the y/y numbers look bad, just ignore them, go with the month over month.
There will be no "run on the banks" duh.
There will be no "depression" duh
Wishful thinking by non patriots.
A severe credit crunch- probably.
Recession- probably.
I have been saying for months that the panic in housing would hit this fall, it looks like I was right. The problem is I don't want to be right, I wish I was wrong. I have two daughters, ages 17 and 11, and I do not want them to have to go through a depression. My mother and father survived the last depression, but it destroyed my fathers parents. John and Lucy lost 500 acres in northern California in the early 1930s and worked as hired help on the property they used to own. Can you say debt slave.
Yes, it is going to be a very bumpy ride, and you better get ready.
Trust me, the PUBLIC DOES NOT HAVE A CLUE, but the rest of you read Calculated Risk, Mortgage Implode, and many many more, so you have no excuse.
Oh, come on, Robert. Granite countertops don't ever stain. They don't ever crack, crunch, crumble, crater or craze. They are elegant monuments to the immortal soul of the American Dream.
Next thing you'll be telling me that people have to pay taxes and insurance every year.
Maybe just an old-fashioned run on hedge funds?
(not sure why this was not included in previous post)
From Yahoo,
U.S. Crisis Sends World Markets Tumbling
Decouple yeah right.
If we catch a cold the rest of the world will get the flu. "Global growth" is from the US buying things.
CFC punched through 27, and according to the chart I'm looking at (1/1/2004 - today), there is a gap down to 25.50. Looks like someone rung the bellweather.
The subprime slime is oozing,'' said Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. in Springfield, New Jersey, who correctly predicted the recession in 2001.
But incorrectly predicted the recessions of 1998, 2001, 2004, etc.
BSC hedge funds go BK (lifted from Implode o Meter for those to busy hitting refresh in Haloscan)
Link
I'm glad to see a reasonable NY open this am. Hopefully, it will remain reasonable.
The Asian markets were terrible last night and the European open was nasty.
slooowww learner,
I see. Patriots like you only acknowledge the possibility of a recession.
Anyone who considers a depression to be a real and disturbing possibility is a "non patriot".
Your neuron firing pattern must resemble a bug zapper in Antarctica.
Wonder if the mkts will figure this out- dusted off NAR quote from big picture on pendig sales:
"An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined and the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. There is a closer relationship between annual changes in the index and actual market performance than with month-to-month comparisons. As the relatively new index matures and seasonal adjustment factors are refined, the month-to-month comparisons will become more meaningful over time." (emphasis added)
and bigpicture comment:
Bloomberg notes that The existing-home sales report is based on a sample of about 40 percent of transactions in the multiple listing service used by real estate agents, while the pending-sales index [the one we are presently discussing] covers about 20 percent.
The Big Picture
A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government: Edward Abbey
And I'm short the dollar too.
Anybody found a bigger container yet. When you do, send it to Paulson.
Another bad day for housing.
Check out prices on BZH, HOV, RDN,
ABK amd MBI.
It is hard to believe we are watching so many companies disintigrate.
Gary,
Why always a political angle. I'm not talking Republican or Dem. The fear mongers talking about decline of western civilization "Depression" and "Runs on the bank", I would bet the majority of them are non US based. Just my opinion.
What's up with that Bizzzie Homes???
theroxylandr said,
What's up with that Bizzzie Homes???
SEC investigation and probably a BK rumor floating about.
Kevin,
I love Ed Abbey and hayduke.
You would not believe how many survey stakes I have took out......
I agree with sloooowwwwwmotion, the banks are DEFINITELY safe.
See this article:
Market Factors: No Run On US Banks or Check Cashing Outlets Foreseen in Global Market Turmoil
OK, that's pretty funny.
I agree with sloooowwwwwmotion, the banks are DEFINITELY safe.
See this article:
http://market-factors.blogspot.c...ck- cashing.html
M-F | Homepage
That is funny. Maybe there will be a "run" on the check cashing outfits and pawn shops.
Monday view: Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown - Telegraph
Interesting article mentioning Paulson's reactivation of semi-shadowy PPT.
Well there will be a few run on hedge funds I expect.
Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys!
"Interesting article mentioning Paulson's reactivation of semi-shadowy PPT."
This is not "secret" or "shadowy",
It started when JP Morgan went to the floor in 1929 and bought a big block of US steel I think it was. Stopped the bleeding for that day but we all know how that turned out.
As Einstein said,
"Bodies in motion tend to stay in motion, bodies at rest tend to stay at rest" (probably not an exact quote but close:)
re: PPT
i find it fascinating how the financials and HB's are disintegrating yet the Dow/sp continue to stay aloft. IMHO it can only be the PPT trying to prevent a panic via the headline numbers.
mf, that is damn funny.
slow, i recalled our discourse the other day re depressions, and took that statement as a shot.
i'm sure there are plenty of people overseas rooting against the us economy, but that's neither here nor there. it doesn't change objective reality.
and the reality is, there are disturbing parallels between our economy today and the economy at that time. and this time, not only the populace, but also the government is up to its eyeballs in debt.
We have much to be worried about.
Gary,
I agree.
i find it fascinating how the financials and HB's are disintegrating yet the Dow/sp continue to stay aloft. IMHO it can only be the PPT trying to prevent a panic via the headline numbers.
Time for sector rotation from SKF and SRS to TWM or to ultra short consumer stocks ?
From a technical point of view, if the S&P 500 falls through 1450 in a meaningful way, the next support is at 1375, which means it would have broken through not only the 50-day MA, but the 200-day MA as well. Not good.
The S&P looks better, from a technical standpoint, than the Dow 30. The Dow doesn't look happy at all.
Another Col. Mortimer moment?
Major Rumour floating around about an Investment Bank selling Bund to cover margin calls. Not good.
"Major Rumour floating around about an Investment Bank selling Bund to cover margin calls. Not good."
depends on who u ask. sharks smell blood in these situations and will attack that IB mercilessly. know the name of that bank?
Any one have any insight into the BZH default rumors?
Jason-during times like these, short them and ask questions later.
"As Einstein said,
"Bodies in motion tend to stay in motion, bodies at rest tend to stay at rest" (probably not an exact quote but close:)"
sloooowwwwwmotion
It was Galileo who said this, but it is an integral part of Newton's mechanics and Einstein's theory of relativity.
Anyways it is a true principle of nature.
I was going to make a comment that was counter to the counter comments, but I got confused.
CORRECTION. At 1475, the S&P 500 would just touch the 200-day MA.
Okay, no run on the banks. How about a run on the hedgies? Already started, you say?
The thing at the BSC fund yesterday was a run on them.
It's only one data point. Should expect more in the future (how much more who knows, not me). But it is to early t o say the run on the hedgies has started
Viscous cycle... Is that a cycle that goes slower and slower until it just stops completely?
thats sounds kinda kinky to me
LBO will stop, which will create the floor under existing debt. Then will see.
idoc,
Yeah it has a ton of kinks...
sloooowwwwwmotion said: " Major Rumour floating around about an Investment Bank selling Bund to cover margin calls. Not good."
Oh, it gets worse than that. According to my derivatives-analyst source, Merrill-Lynch is rumored to have cut off all warehouse loans to all mortgage originators.
Don't go by me, though: I just make it all up.
Sebastia
Ahhhh good 'ol volatility is back in equities ....
"But incorrectly predicted the recessions of 1998, 2001, 2004, etc."
Didn't we have a recession in 2001? Lasted most of the year, as I recall.
slow, I'm hoping for a depression, and I'm an ex-Navy guy living in California.
A depression is the only sure-fire way to purge the money-induced silliness from our society: Hummers, $100MM baseball contracts, ridiculous asset inflation (homes, stocks).
A depression now results because Alan G. did not let us have our recessions in the mid '90s and early '00s.
Oh, it gets worse than that. According to my derivatives-analyst source, Merrill-Lynch is rumored to have cut off all warehouse loans to all mortgage originators.
Who was it here that was throwing up in their mouth last week? I'm gonna need some Listerine.
And, the '01 recession does not count, IMO, as a real recession, as personal consumption only fell in three of the nine months of the recession (and only 0.2% from peak); in the '90-'91 recession, real personal consumption fell for five straight months (and was off 0.7% from peak).
You can borrow my Listerine, but I only have one pair of brown pants and I'm already using them.
Captain, there are 10 pirate ships on the horizon!
Bring me my brown pants!
You can borrow my Listerine, but I only have one pair of brown pants and I'm already using them.
No worries, the Bankerdome has an entire Pamperpantry.
Banker-u made a great call on DCX. what do u think about FDC, TXU, and AT?
I've tried my best to wrap my quiver of tentacles around the concept of a viscous cycle. It's a completely rigidulous idea.
idoc,
What do they say about stopped clocks being correct twice a day?
I have no scoop, this is all conjecture. Each of those companies are the kinds of companies that can support high levels of debt. They are reliable cash generating machines. I suspect that the banks will be happier about owning debt in those than they are about Chrysler. But they will still take major earnings hits if they close them.
Having said that, I thought the idea of the banks paying the breakup fee on TXU was an inspired idea.
My guess? Everyone holds on tight on all these deals until after Labor Day and hopes for the best in the market.
One thing folks forget about the high yield market is that when no deals get done a tremendous amount of cash gets built up from interest payments received so time alone can sometimes cure market problems.
Sorry I have no insight here, just guessing.
When did JPMChase's previous quarter end, June 30?
Banker,
I appreciate your comments in this forum, educated guess or hard data regardless. I have learned a lot.
Cheers...
It is hard to believe we are watching so many companies disintigrate.
Why is this so hard to believe? Once home prices got out of hand and the cheap credit dried up, their business model became "no longer operative", to borrow a phrase from CR. Some of them also tried to "diversify" into morgage lending during the runup which is now blowing up in their faces. Mix in a bit of Enron-style corruption, and you've got the perfect storm.
I think phase II of the housing downturn will include a public homebuilder shakeout from which maybe 3-5 survivors will emerge. Beazer may be the first to be eliminated, although today's rumor should perhaps be discounted.
You can't "run" on a drive-in bank, you gotta do a 'drive'... and that means you need to be able to afford the gas. The banks are safe.
Since railroads are losing money and can say they are hauling less gyp board, steel, lumber, brick, cement... then obviously commercial construction is not making up the missing volume of residential. Also obviously, residential builders are not hiring the same number of people to install less material. Stuff just does not add up here. It is time to clearly conclude that you cannot trust the underlying statistical reports. Maybe they are rigged, maybe they are misguided - it doesn't matter; they do not add up.
Banker-appreciate your insights as well as your guesses. personally, i don't see how they get done with the current velocity of credit contraction. i've been amazed at the rate of hedge fund implosions occurring almost daily. the mkt can't withstand this much longer. but then again, there's the PPT!
sorry, had to throw that in there!
Our creditors have much to be worried about. In 1929, we were the creditors.
Sebastian said: Don't go by me, though
You don't have to worry about that around here. Your comments are well understood to be shameful shilling of one kind or another.
It is time to clearly conclude that you cannot trust the underlying statistical reports. Maybe they are rigged, maybe they are misguided - it doesn't matter; they do not add up
The unadjusted establishment number is pretty close to the sunsequent BED data; it's the "seasonal adjustments" and "birth/death" aspects that queer the number, as often happens at inflection points.
dotcom-u bust me up! LOL!!
There are a few things that we know for sure:
1. the fed will pump money as the only way out
2. there is a plunge protection team for the markets
3. the credit availability/greed was foolish and 2 million homes will get foreclosed
4. 3/4 of our economy runs on consumers
Based on these things we know:
1) inflation will be attempted, probably beyond reasonable before they realize the futility (this means that prices will skyrocket for food, energy, while many assets will be left behind). It is already exponential!
2) the market will not crash as they will print any amount of money necessary, some small areas will get hit hard, others will be pumped up by the PPT. So betting against the broad market would probably be foolish.
3) The poor will be hurt the most, although many middle class will be brought lower.
4) your savings will become worthless as the money flow progresses through the system and if everyone realizes this it will cause hoarding and precious metals will soar as a wealth protection play.
5) other commodities will also soar, but I expect that the developing world commodities will fall when sales of their luxury (meaning you don't NEED them) products die. so you will have to pick and choose the correct commodities here, probably more food/energy related as opposed to steel, concrete.
Good luck to us all, the central banks and politicians have buried us!