OT-While the DOW is oscillating wildly from positive to negative, the RE related stocks are suffering panic selling today. All of the numbers below are % declines data taken within the last 30 minutes.
Soooo.... OK to make an observation about the labor market now?
Challenger posted a whopping 198k new public sector job announcements in July. I have no idea where those jobs may have been announced, or how many would have been filled in early July. If even 25% of them were filled in early July, that would offset considerable weakness in private hiring. I would also note that ADP's only bad mismatch with the BLS private hiring series this year - mismatch in terms of the ADP hiring figure strengthening while the BLS figure weakened - was in June. If ADP was merely counting jobs in June that BLS counts in July, all is well.
By 6AM the Yen Carriers had loaded up on dollars they had bought with borrowed yen, driving the dollar up against the yen (check the charts).
The market opens and they buy across the board. The market responds and goes up further, because if there's one thing the looney tunes playing the market don't want, it's to be left behind.
So the market goes up, and the Yen Carriers sell into the rally until the market starts moving down. They let it fall a little and the move back in and repeat the process.
Look at the chart. It's all there, and believe me it isn't the Invisible Hand.
With leverage comes power. If you have infinite leverage, you have infinite power.
Stop and think about it: if you can borrow money for nothing, you are the richest man on earth. You can do anything you like.
As long as Japanese interest rates are zero, a bunch of aggressive, smart people are going to make billions and the average man is going to suck canal water up his ass.
Credit crunch will shred investment portfolios to ribbons.
When creditors led by Merrill Lynch forced a fire-sale of assets (of two Bear Stearns hedge funds in danger of collapsing), they inadvertently revealed that up to $2 trillion of debt linked to the crumbling sub-prime and Alt A property market was falsely priced on books The banks halted the sale before price discovery set off a wider chain-reaction.
Who now holds these risks ? The honest answer is that we do not know. (The Bank of International Settlements) said.
Wobbles are turning to fears This is how a credit crunch starts.
This is the big one: all investment portfolios will be shredded to ribbons, said Albert Edwards, from Dresdner Kleinwort.
Ya go get that $588 a month mortgage...things are just fine and dandy...while your at it buy an investment property to boot...you will be fine.....Burp!
arbo-i agree. this dow/sp manip presents great opportunities to short the diverging sectors like financial and anything RE in anticipation of the close.
You seem spot on for the antics of the market mechanics at work - do you think the selldown at the end of the day may be driven by sell orders to the mutual funds?
FYI, the decliners:advancers on NYSE during this rally is 2:1...
"Detumesce" means the testosterone has gone on vacation. Viagra prescription has run out. The young thing in the little black dress said "sorry, I have a boyfriend." No pistol in the pocket. Not happy to see anybody.
Mike M - "When does government become the country's largest employer?"
The federal government has been the largest employer in the US for decades. That's a major reason why we all work until mid-May to late-July each year to pay taxes.
Politics rules these days, more than ever. It is not allowed to have a 50,000 jobs figure. Too politically damaging. Next to certainty is a 100,000+ jobs figure, includiing more construction jobs added and the unemployment rate staying the same..oh yes, and lots of government contract jobs started a week before they conduct the count and lasting just a few days after the jobs count is completed. Bank on it. They don't care any more. Well past the point of commitment.
What happened to BZH? Down 25%
cal,
They are being investigated by the SEC.
I can't beleive the DOW is even able to keep its head above water with news coming out today and the end of yesterday.
It must be like the "patriot rally" that we saw after 9/11...
What is the good buying news today???
cal said,
"What happened to BZH? Down 25%"
SEC investigation and a BK rumour.
Fieldstone done?
Fieldstone status?
The SEC thing is "old news", the bankruptcy rumor is the driver. Lots of blood in the lender and homebuilder space today.
OT-While the DOW is oscillating wildly from positive to negative, the RE related stocks are suffering panic selling today. All of the numbers below are % declines data taken within the last 30 minutes.
Banks and lenders
IMB 10
DSL 4
Fed 4
Bkuna 7
NFI 34
Lend 21
RWT 8
Mortgage insurers (after yesterdays big declines)
MTG 14
RDN 20
PMI 6
Builders:
BZH 14
SPF 11
WCI 14
Hov 7
Perhaps Lend and NFI are getting near the tipping pt suffered by AHM.
CR, perhaps you've got a chart there to show us just how close the ADP and BLS private employment numbers are as of late. It'd help, methinks.
Oops...nevermind. It's in the article itself.
OT: What's the difference between a "thrift" and an REIT?
TIA.
IMB cutting subprime?
Mortgage Grapevine: Just got off the phone with my Indymac Rep. Bye Bye Subprime
CFC to follow?
Soooo.... OK to make an observation about the labor market now?
Challenger posted a whopping 198k new public sector job announcements in July. I have no idea where those jobs may have been announced, or how many would have been filled in early July. If even 25% of them were filled in early July, that would offset considerable weakness in private hiring. I would also note that ADP's only bad mismatch with the BLS private hiring series this year - mismatch in terms of the ADP hiring figure strengthening while the BLS figure weakened - was in June. If ADP was merely counting jobs in June that BLS counts in July, all is well.
Yep, 100k from government and guesstimates of new businesses. Sounds about right. When does government become the country's largest employer?
Mike M - "When does government become the country's largest employer?"
When the rest of the country's businesses offshore it or hire illegals
I will explain what the market is doing.
By 6AM the Yen Carriers had loaded up on dollars they had bought with borrowed yen, driving the dollar up against the yen (check the charts).
The market opens and they buy across the board. The market responds and goes up further, because if there's one thing the looney tunes playing the market don't want, it's to be left behind.
So the market goes up, and the Yen Carriers sell into the rally until the market starts moving down. They let it fall a little and the move back in and repeat the process.
Look at the chart. It's all there, and believe me it isn't the Invisible Hand.
With leverage comes power. If you have infinite leverage, you have infinite power.
Stop and think about it: if you can borrow money for nothing, you are the richest man on earth. You can do anything you like.
As long as Japanese interest rates are zero, a bunch of aggressive, smart people are going to make billions and the average man is going to suck canal water up his ass.
S&P Teleconference transcript on ratings actions:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/media/Transcript_072507.pdf
Slides (look how bad the 2006 vintage is!):
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/media/Teleconference_final_072507.pdf
"Ratings On 10 Cash Flow, Hybrid CDO Deals Put On Watch Neg; $1.025 Billion In Notes Affected"
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.article/3,1,1,0,1148446336040.html
Various Rating Actions Taken On U.S. Synthetic CDO Transactions
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.article/3,1,1,0,1148446296306.html
If I'm right, the market will detumesce at the end of the day.
These guys do not want to be long overnite.
arbogast,
So why dont we reprice all the ARM's into Japanese Yen and have the rates reset to zero? That should take care of the housing porblem. (sarcasm)
Credit crunch will shred investment portfolios to ribbons.
When creditors led by Merrill Lynch forced a fire-sale of assets (of two Bear Stearns hedge funds in danger of collapsing), they inadvertently revealed that up to $2 trillion of debt linked to the crumbling sub-prime and Alt A property market was falsely priced on books The banks halted the sale before price discovery set off a wider chain-reaction.
Who now holds these risks ? The honest answer is that we do not know. (The Bank of International Settlements) said.
Wobbles are turning to fears This is how a credit crunch starts.
This is the big one: all investment portfolios will be shredded to ribbons, said Albert Edwards, from Dresdner Kleinwort.
Ya go get that $588 a month mortgage...things are just fine and dandy...while your at it buy an investment property to boot...you will be fine.....Burp!
arbo-i agree. this dow/sp manip presents great opportunities to short the diverging sectors like financial and anything RE in anticipation of the close.
What is "detumesce" ?
and can any one guess if this market is ready for another big bounce or not ?
many things looks to me like they are over sold - but maybe for a reason...
arbo,
You seem spot on for the antics of the market mechanics at work - do you think the selldown at the end of the day may be driven by sell orders to the mutual funds?
FYI, the decliners:advancers on NYSE during this rally is 2:1...
Yal,
"Detumesce" means the testosterone has gone on vacation. Viagra prescription has run out. The young thing in the little black dress said "sorry, I have a boyfriend." No pistol in the pocket. Not happy to see anybody.
Hope that helps.
Mike M - "When does government become the country's largest employer?"
The federal government has been the largest employer in the US for decades. That's a major reason why we all work until mid-May to late-July each year to pay taxes.
Politics rules these days, more than ever. It is not allowed to have a 50,000 jobs figure. Too politically damaging. Next to certainty is a 100,000+ jobs figure, includiing more construction jobs added and the unemployment rate staying the same..oh yes, and lots of government contract jobs started a week before they conduct the count and lasting just a few days after the jobs count is completed. Bank on it. They don't care any more. Well past the point of commitment.
Thanks for the explnation.
"sorry, I have a boyfriend." - heard this too many times....
But found 'The One' and I am happily married now.....
"sorry, I have a boyfriend."
That's nice... where is he now?
"If I'm right, the market will detumesce at the end of the day.
These guys do not want to be long overnite."
wicked, arbo.