There was a time when my Pivot Tables were feared throughout the industry, and my rate sheets were a thing of beauty.
Of course, it wouldn't be hard to put out rate sheets this week: type "no bid," copy to all cells. And stratifying the pools? Who needs pivot tables when you have six loans to look at . . .
Yal: There's some thinking that most of that was 401K buying. This is payday for a lot of folks (yesterday for me) and that 401K money comes out and has to go somewhere.
1440 was a key support level for many technicians. we could see a bounce in major indices from here. doesn't mean weak sectors (fin, HB's) have to follow.
Guessing at massive program trades kicking in - with a coincidental appearance of coordination - anyone with advancers/decliner stats and 52 week high/low stats throw please post.
There was a massive surge at around 30 minutes before the close (which failed to hold) and then I guess another one about 10 minutes later, which I wasnt watching. I have to check the volume spikes, but it was heavy enough to shut down my quote streamer at 1230pm.
As U.S. subprime securitizations from 2005 and 2006 are experiencing very high levels of delinquency and default due to the impact of an unfavorable home price environment on transactions with concentrations of high-risk mortgage products, Fitch Ratings has introduced new surveillance methodology designed to recognize the performance profile and distinct risks inherent in individual securities. Additionally, Fitch is providing greater transparency on a class-by-class level providing investors with a forward-looking forecast of mortgage default and loss.
There was a war going on all day in the market, why are you just looking at the last fifteen minutes?
Yes I still claim there is no coordination. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. I've been in the middle of markets like this (bonds, not stocks) and watched what happens on trading desks. I have never seen a trader who had time to "coordinate" much beyond his own sales force. I have also only rarely seen a trader stand up and say something like the following to the desk
Everybody listen up, we're taking this thing higher, I'll buy all the xyz you can get me, now get to it!
No reason a bunch of hedge funds can't coordinate to slam futures upward and cause a big short-covering rally. In fact, why would the NOT do this? They can make money on the way up, and on the way down. Volatility can be very profitable if you know it's coming.
With so much short interest out there, and a lot of it probably undercapitalized, I would expect a lot of this.
I think there's some remote possibility that we could see some monster short-squeeze that takes the Dow to new highs (though I think that would be highly unlikely, you have to anticipate anything).
You PPT guys, sheesh! So the market makers (and specialists) were overloaded with shares, and they knew an attack on the Yen at the end of the day would curb sell pressure. Thus they initiated a short squeeze to sell off their overloaded bags (need to empty-out/refresh before the next sell-off---tomorrow, probably). The day traders were screwed. Didn't even have to be pre-arranged. The traders know what is always needed during sell-offs.
I think the bigger scam of the day was the huge dump and buy on the homebuilders. This was a stop-buster, which exaccerbated selling into it with huge volume, then as suddenly it was pushed up. Total industry play, like a bk would be a surprise. The players who orchestrated this likely came from the investment banks/hedge funds that are suffering. That was pure market manipulation. Quickly obtained stolen cash to put the tiger at bay for a few more hours. Many more of these to come. Watch out.
Banker, I'm as skeptical of conspiracy theories as you are, but I remember listening to a tape of Enron traders doing exactly what you are describing. You know.
I agree that most mortgage/bond traders couldn't organize a trip to the men's room without a fight breaking out, but still . . .
BTW, any takers on WTF happened to close the market? I walk away from my computer for 20 minutes and we go from -20 pts to +150 to close.
To paraphrase the talking heads on CNBS it was a technical thing...
Supposedly there was a large number of traders holding orders to buy... waited to see how the end of the day shaped up... I guess order placing gets more 'visible' at the end -say 30 minutes before close.
When they saw there wasn't a huge wall of sellers (like the last few sessions)... they poured in and more followed, not wanting to be 'left behind'.
Ironically - they said it was a sign of 'fear' & not increased bullishness... else those orders would have been placed earlier during the day and been a non-event.
Sounds stupid to me - I'd rather have'm buy my shares at the bottom... but what do I know, I don't 'trade'.
There was a war going on all day in the market, why are you just looking at the last fifteen minutes?
Note that something similar happenend on the day before we had that 283 point rise. In fact bonds yields took of like a flock of birds before stocks really gained much ground after the initial impulse.
Again, somebody explain to my why big money speculators wouldn't do something like this.
bacon dreamz, some day, when all my relatives have entered the witness protection program and there is no one who can be hurt by it, I will reveal my own surname. Ahem.
"The subprime virus has gone global. Starting as a localised outbreak in the US market for risky subprime mortgages, it has spread into the supposedly safer Alt-A tier and even into prime mortgages. Meanwhile, it has crossed into other loan species particularly leveraged lending, where ballooning spreads have rattled the market and left banks holding big chunks of debt."
Could you dio it to a single security? Yup. But the whole DJIA? Nah, your dictum applies
I don't trade futures and know very little about the market, but I assume there are DJIA futures and given the huge amount of speculative capital out there combined with the leverage available to the futures market why couldn't a handful of big money speculators (with the help of their handy Blackberrys and iPhones) coordinate to "slam" the Dow upwards and trigger a big short-covering rally?
Again, if someone else won't do it, give me the money and I will.
The yen fell sharply at the end of the day and the Dow took off.
I regard that as nearly proof positive that the money that went into the market at the end was yen carry money.
These are very big boys. And please, please don't tell me that with a few hundred million dollars (borrowed of course) they can't buy a basket of stocks that corresponds to pretty much any index they choose. It happens all the time.
And, finally, if you're going to do yen carry, the last thing you want to do is hang around. You want to be in and out. Like today.
So, you generate some upward momentum, see if the suckers will come with you and then dump.
And you change it around so that it isn't too obvious. After all, schmucks like me aren't supposed to catch on.
Facts:
Buying a basket of stocks is a commonplace.
The yen carry can come up with hundredds of millions of dollars in a very, very short while: seconds.
This doesn't take more than five or six coordinated individuals, each with a few hundred million dollars in his gun.
I tell you right now, if interest rates are free somewhere on the globe, this stuff is going to go on in every "market" there is.
Tanta, under nerd in training question. What is the order of whackage? Lowest rated first sure but do they stop getting interest payments then lose principal until wiped out then proceed to the next highest rated and repeat or do returns stop entirely and then eat the principal going up or is there prorating?
arbo - you have links to the charts? Not challenging you or getting in your face or anything but it is an interesting theory and I'd love to see if it can stand up - can you post anything?
Robert Cote, first the excess spread takes it, then OC, then the subs, lowest to highest. so if u have 150 bps OC and 50 bps excess spread credit, the lowest sub can withstand 200 bps of losses before it gets whacked.
arbo-agreed. i must also reiterate that 1440 on the s&p was at the lower end of a major resistance zone. those same big guns believe that we will bounce from here and they use technicals as their guidance. i think they will be wrong here, though we may bounce in the shortterm, b/c we have never seen anything like this current credit freeze from the housing crisis.
There are some deal-specific variations, but basically losses are covered in order by:
Excess interest
Overcollateralization
Lowest tranche
n. Highest tranche
There will usually be a number of mezzanine tranches that accrue interest but aren't paid distributions during the initial years of the deal. So what happens is that cash interest is actually being applied to the senior notes as principal (it's called "turboing" them, or amortizing them faster than the underlying loans amortize, which builds up OC). If there is a true interest shortfall for any class that is eligible for distributions, then the pain goes from lowest to highest in priority.
The notion of a PPT directly manipulating the markets for non-economic, direct gain is unlikely. A review of trading activity during previous market tops/bottoms should provide some confirmation.
Don't forget loud-mouth Cramer bragging on YouTube about manipulating markets at his old hedge fund and how easy it was. It's really pretty simple - you just need enormous kahunas to do it. Can you imagine being one of the Citi traders that sold that $11B in Euro paper?
Also I'd point out that "manipulation" could easily be called a "bluff" for those that fall for the fantasy that trading is like casino games.
Don't forget loud-mouth Cramer bragging on YouTube about manipulating markets at his old hedge fund and how easy it was.
People here rip Cramer but his 'cow tipping' confessionals are some of the BEST videos... I watched a few and laughed by ass so hard my college age son had to come down to see what was up.
You have to know he's exaggerating... okay bull shitting... still if half of it is true you have to wonder about the markets.
speaking of cash flow waterfalls, it occurred to me that the losses coming on the 2006 vintage are like mighty salmon battling its way against the rapids so that they can mate with the investment grade bonds waiting upstream. Unfortunately, these salmon appear to be too muscly and powerful to make good sushi for me to eat. but don't worry people we can eat the salty roe and stop the disfigured spawn of 2006 salmon from ever entering the stream next year. does anybody have any soy sauce?
Let's talk about the end of the day run .... First of all , that wasn't blind index (S&P ,DOW or Qs' ) buying to me. How did the lenders and builders do during the last hour ( let alone the last half hour of our trading session ? ) So , that wasn't it , right ? Second , it wasn't 401(k) money coming in.. could it be that targeted ? You had someone put together a basket of tech stocks and consumer related stocks and the bump that was desired was obtained... what does that mean ? Nothing really if you think about it. Does this board care about a slight bump in Apple , Google or Amazon, Procter /Gamble et al ? However , if you look at the HBs and Lenders , they didn't bounce during the last minute rally , which says alot to me. Just my humble opinion.
Follow up to my prior message ... look at GM , F and DCx charts for today and check out the last hour. Now , just on the basis of the sales numbers that came out today , tell me why someone got religion about these three stocks in the last hour of the day ? Haven't bothered to check but look at Apple , Amazon and Google .. anything there look familiar to you after looking at the charts for GM , F and DCX ? LOL
"The first is the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, which has come to play a pivotal role as a deliberative and coordinating body. Chaired by the Treasury Department, this cross-functional group of banking, securities, and commodities regulators has enhanced the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our nation's
financial markets and has helped maintain investor confidence.
Secretary Paulson has emphasized the important work of this group from his
earliest days on the job, and we at the OCC participate as the primary supervisor of the largest U.S. commercial banks that are the most active derivatives traders in the banking system." 11/10/2006
Comptroller Dugan Tells Bankers that Managing Risk in Derivatives Markets Is Essential to Maintain Public Confidence in Nation's Financial Institutions
There is a working group although I don't know if they are responsible for the move today or not. The market was over sold and ready to bounce regardless from what I could tell.
"LCR" is "Loss Coverage Ratio," or the BL divided by the expected lifetime losses for a given security. The Benchmark LCR here is specifically for seasoned securities (it is not identical to the benchmarks for new issues as it takes into account prepayments of the higher-rated classes). The benchmark LCR is the major factor in determining affirmation or downgrade of a given class.
What is seasoned, and what is affirmation? Thanks.
I was just pointing out that it's a synonym. Whether you believe they move the markets or not was imaterial; the point was that you can't 'not believe' in something that does indeed exist, in fact. It's sorta' like the terrorist thing... to some they're 'terrorists', to others 'insurgents', and still to others 'jihadists'. The fact is, there's a bunch of guys trying to F things up, and we pretty well know 'who they are'.
I concur with the definition you cited, and perhaps would grant them a little extra juice they may not discuss openly.
"Comptroller Dugan Tells Bankers that Managing Risk in Derivatives Markets Is Essential to Maintain Public Confidence in [the] Nation's Financial Institutions"
Hmmm... So where in the Constitution does it put the Federal Government in charge of the 'confidence in the nation's financial institutions'?
That very statement is proof enough of behind-the-scenes manipulation of what we call 'free markets'.
So where in the Constitution does it put the Federal Government in charge of the 'confidence in the nation's financial institutions'?
The constitution is a living document, which got flushed in the civil war. Living document means subject to change. It doesnt really mean jack in this day and age although politicians sight it when it suits their fancy. I truly doubt that many of them have read it.
poszi, you are quite right. The rating agencies refer to their process of monitoring existing deals as "surveillance." They have different methodologies for dealing with brand-new issues and "seasoned" issues. As a deal "seasons," it changes: the pool pays down, the bonds pay down, the OC and the excess can grow or shrink, actual losses can have occurred. (On a new issue those things are all still just projections.) So part of what you are doing in "surveillance" is measuring the actual performance against the original projections.
There are four possible outcomes of surveillance review: upgrade, affirmation (staying at the original rating), downgrade, and "watch" or "watch negative." Deals on a watch status are showing some kind of negative trend or troubling characteristic, which are not enough to downgrade them at the moment but which are enough to mean there is the potential for short-term negative action. So they go on a list for heightened review each month as the remittance reports come in.
Tanta, I din't know you could use a spreadsheet too. You are so multi talented, we don't know what to do with you.
There was a time when my Pivot Tables were feared throughout the industry, and my rate sheets were a thing of beauty.
Of course, it wouldn't be hard to put out rate sheets this week: type "no bid," copy to all cells. And stratifying the pools? Who needs pivot tables when you have six loans to look at . . .
Banker,
Do you still claim there is no coordination on the DJI ?
look at last 15 min of trading vs all day.
First the xls and now the ppt!
So a 20% loss would wipe out everything below A-? What would be the expected loss if one were silly enough to make 2nds the only collateral?
Yal: There's some thinking that most of that was 401K buying. This is payday for a lot of folks (yesterday for me) and that 401K money comes out and has to go somewhere.
No. I have my limits. ppt is one of them.
You give me a white board and a box of markers, or you get to stare at your fingernails while I talk. Those are your options. No slides.
BTW, any takers on WTF happened to close the market? I walk away from my computer for 20 minutes and we go from -20 pts to +150 to close.
Rotten fish alert.
Massive short covering?
Oh my Tanta, you sound like my wife. Her excel charts and piviot tables scare the life out of me. I guess working in corporate finance will do that.
Could be 401K distribution, though that seems too much, too fast. PPT is my bet. Can't let the DOW have too many down days - people might catch on!
1440 was a key support level for many technicians. we could see a bounce in major indices from here. doesn't mean weak sectors (fin, HB's) have to follow.
Guessing at massive program trades kicking in - with a coincidental appearance of coordination - anyone with advancers/decliner stats and 52 week high/low stats throw please post.
There was a massive surge at around 30 minutes before the close (which failed to hold) and then I guess another one about 10 minutes later, which I wasnt watching. I have to check the volume spikes, but it was heavy enough to shut down my quote streamer at 1230pm.
Fitch Affirms $20B & Downgrades $2.4B of U.S. Subprime RMBS; New 2005-2006 Surveillance Criteria
As U.S. subprime securitizations from 2005 and 2006 are experiencing very high levels of delinquency and default due to the impact of an unfavorable home price environment on transactions with concentrations of high-risk mortgage products, Fitch Ratings has introduced new surveillance methodology designed to recognize the performance profile and distinct risks inherent in individual securities. Additionally, Fitch is providing greater transparency on a class-by-class level providing investors with a forward-looking forecast of mortgage default and loss.
Just adding a link ...
Best Wishes.
bag holder:
AIG Subprime Debt May Cost $2.3 Billion, Analysts Say (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
small one.
Thanks, CR, I was waiting for something more link-friendly that the Fitch report.
Yal,
There was a war going on all day in the market, why are you just looking at the last fifteen minutes?
Yes I still claim there is no coordination. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. I've been in the middle of markets like this (bonds, not stocks) and watched what happens on trading desks. I have never seen a trader who had time to "coordinate" much beyond his own sales force. I have also only rarely seen a trader stand up and say something like the following to the desk
Everybody listen up, we're taking this thing higher, I'll buy all the xyz you can get me, now get to it!
Massive short covering?
No reason a bunch of hedge funds can't coordinate to slam futures upward and cause a big short-covering rally. In fact, why would the NOT do this? They can make money on the way up, and on the way down. Volatility can be very profitable if you know it's coming.
With so much short interest out there, and a lot of it probably undercapitalized, I would expect a lot of this.
I think there's some remote possibility that we could see some monster short-squeeze that takes the Dow to new highs (though I think that would be highly unlikely, you have to anticipate anything).
Banker,
I don't know how it is done but it sure looks cordinated.
My guess: pre-cordination plus a "timer" on program buying - or one massive buyer who does it all.
I don't buy the 401K buying - why wait for the end ? they know exactly how much money comes in for the 401K (give or take 1%)
You PPT guys, sheesh! So the market makers (and specialists) were overloaded with shares, and they knew an attack on the Yen at the end of the day would curb sell pressure. Thus they initiated a short squeeze to sell off their overloaded bags (need to empty-out/refresh before the next sell-off---tomorrow, probably). The day traders were screwed. Didn't even have to be pre-arranged. The traders know what is always needed during sell-offs.
I think the bigger scam of the day was the huge dump and buy on the homebuilders. This was a stop-buster, which exaccerbated selling into it with huge volume, then as suddenly it was pushed up. Total industry play, like a bk would be a surprise. The players who orchestrated this likely came from the investment banks/hedge funds that are suffering. That was pure market manipulation. Quickly obtained stolen cash to put the tiger at bay for a few more hours. Many more of these to come. Watch out.
Banker, I'm as skeptical of conspiracy theories as you are, but I remember listening to a tape of Enron traders doing exactly what you are describing. You know.
I agree that most mortgage/bond traders couldn't organize a trip to the men's room without a fight breaking out, but still . . .
BTW, any takers on WTF happened to close the market? I walk away from my computer for 20 minutes and we go from -20 pts to +150 to close.
To paraphrase the talking heads on CNBS it was a technical thing...
Supposedly there was a large number of traders holding orders to buy... waited to see how the end of the day shaped up... I guess order placing gets more 'visible' at the end -say 30 minutes before close.
When they saw there wasn't a huge wall of sellers (like the last few sessions)... they poured in and more followed, not wanting to be 'left behind'.
Ironically - they said it was a sign of 'fear' & not increased bullishness... else those orders would have been placed earlier during the day and been a non-event.
Sounds stupid to me - I'd rather have'm buy my shares at the bottom... but what do I know, I don't 'trade'.
There was a war going on all day in the market, why are you just looking at the last fifteen minutes?
Note that something similar happenend on the day before we had that 283 point rise. In fact bonds yields took of like a flock of birds before stocks really gained much ground after the initial impulse.
Again, somebody explain to my why big money speculators wouldn't do something like this.
It's exactly what I'd do if I were teh rich.
oh aren't u all so mature ignoring my joke about that woman's name on the last thread. bastards. mortgage trader's would laugh at my jokes...
"LCR" is "Loss Coverage Ratio," or the BL divided by the expected lifetime losses for a given security."
Is that expected lifetime losses as a percentage?
traders, not trader's. whatever. ur all still bastards.
Tanta,
Could you dio it to a single security? Yup. But the whole DJIA? Nah, your dictum applies
most mortgage/bond traders couldn't organize a trip to the men's room without a fight breaking out, but still . . .
Again, somebody explain to my why big money speculators wouldn't do something like this.
Too risky in a credit impaired world.
bacon dreamz, some day, when all my relatives have entered the witness protection program and there is no one who can be hurt by it, I will reveal my own surname. Ahem.
From Lex at the FT
"The subprime virus has gone global. Starting as a localised outbreak in the US market for risky subprime mortgages, it has spread into the supposedly safer Alt-A tier and even into prime mortgages. Meanwhile, it has crossed into other loan species particularly leveraged lending, where ballooning spreads have rattled the market and left banks holding big chunks of debt."
lama, yes.
Could you dio it to a single security? Yup. But the whole DJIA? Nah, your dictum applies
I don't trade futures and know very little about the market, but I assume there are DJIA futures and given the huge amount of speculative capital out there combined with the leverage available to the futures market why couldn't a handful of big money speculators (with the help of their handy Blackberrys and iPhones) coordinate to "slam" the Dow upwards and trigger a big short-covering rally?
Again, if someone else won't do it, give me the money and I will.
Tanta, is it "Bouffant"?
Banker,
The yen fell sharply at the end of the day and the Dow took off.
I regard that as nearly proof positive that the money that went into the market at the end was yen carry money.
These are very big boys. And please, please don't tell me that with a few hundred million dollars (borrowed of course) they can't buy a basket of stocks that corresponds to pretty much any index they choose. It happens all the time.
And, finally, if you're going to do yen carry, the last thing you want to do is hang around. You want to be in and out. Like today.
So, you generate some upward momentum, see if the suckers will come with you and then dump.
And you change it around so that it isn't too obvious. After all, schmucks like me aren't supposed to catch on.
Facts:
Buying a basket of stocks is a commonplace.
The yen carry can come up with hundredds of millions of dollars in a very, very short while: seconds.
This doesn't take more than five or six coordinated individuals, each with a few hundred million dollars in his gun.
I tell you right now, if interest rates are free somewhere on the globe, this stuff is going to go on in every "market" there is.
Tanta, under nerd in training question. What is the order of whackage? Lowest rated first sure but do they stop getting interest payments then lose principal until wiped out then proceed to the next highest rated and repeat or do returns stop entirely and then eat the principal going up or is there prorating?
arbo - you have links to the charts? Not challenging you or getting in your face or anything but it is an interesting theory and I'd love to see if it can stand up - can you post anything?
Arbo,
they don't even have to do it..
the code goes
if "yen" < "dollar"
then
buy spy,qqqq,dia
else
endif
Homeowners say lenders should be more forgiving
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Whaaa! it's not my fault, it's not fair, Whaaa! You knew I couldn't pay it back when you lent it to me. Whaaaaa
Robert Cote, first the excess spread takes it, then OC, then the subs, lowest to highest. so if u have 150 bps OC and 50 bps excess spread credit, the lowest sub can withstand 200 bps of losses before it gets whacked.
arbo-agreed. i must also reiterate that 1440 on the s&p was at the lower end of a major resistance zone. those same big guns believe that we will bounce from here and they use technicals as their guidance. i think they will be wrong here, though we may bounce in the shortterm, b/c we have never seen anything like this current credit freeze from the housing crisis.
Tanta, is it "Bouffant"?
I wish.
What is the order of whackage?
There are some deal-specific variations, but basically losses are covered in order by:
n. Highest tranche
There will usually be a number of mezzanine tranches that accrue interest but aren't paid distributions during the initial years of the deal. So what happens is that cash interest is actually being applied to the senior notes as principal (it's called "turboing" them, or amortizing them faster than the underlying loans amortize, which builds up OC). If there is a true interest shortfall for any class that is eligible for distributions, then the pain goes from lowest to highest in priority.
too slow, Bouffant!
Yeah, I had to organize a trip to the ladies' room in there.
..the expected lifetime losses for a given security.
Well that's the tricky part, isn't it. Or, the cockroaches are in the details.
Especially female mortgage traders...
The notion of a PPT directly manipulating the markets for non-economic, direct gain is unlikely. A review of trading activity during previous market tops/bottoms should provide some confirmation.
Banker,
Rember there are only 30 stocks in the dow and points are heavily weighted toward high market cap....
So one would just have to buy shit loads of GM to move the avg. up. Once the desks see the move they follow and boom fat rally.
I'm definitly know conspiracy theorist but it is pretty easy to move "market cap" weighted indices.
Caveat for the term "easy" above- you have to have big money.
Yep - nobody would EVER manipulate a market....
Finextra: Citi bond traders indicted over 'Dr Evil' trade
What's next...nobody would ever trade on inside info?
Former Goldman Sachs economist jailed - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
The Indiana Law Blog: Ind. Gov't. - Goldman Sachs's Conflicts of Interest Convulse Chicago, Indiana
Don't forget loud-mouth Cramer bragging on YouTube about manipulating markets at his old hedge fund and how easy it was. It's really pretty simple - you just need enormous kahunas to do it. Can you imagine being one of the Citi traders that sold that $11B in Euro paper?
Also I'd point out that "manipulation" could easily be called a "bluff" for those that fall for the fantasy that trading is like casino games.
Don't forget loud-mouth Cramer bragging on YouTube about manipulating markets at his old hedge fund and how easy it was.
People here rip Cramer but his 'cow tipping' confessionals are some of the BEST videos... I watched a few and laughed by ass so hard my college age son had to come down to see what was up.
You have to know he's exaggerating... okay bull shitting... still if half of it is true you have to wonder about the markets.
Can you imagine being one of the Citi traders that sold that $11B in Euro paper?
OPM - you think they even thought much about it? I kinda doubt it.
On the other hand, my guess is they will be focused more attentively on their trial.
Tanta,
Do you 'believe in' the President's Working Group on Financial Markets?
That's the PPT.
Respectfuly,
Dave S.
speaking of cash flow waterfalls, it occurred to me that the losses coming on the 2006 vintage are like mighty salmon battling its way against the rapids so that they can mate with the investment grade bonds waiting upstream. Unfortunately, these salmon appear to be too muscly and powerful to make good sushi for me to eat. but don't worry people we can eat the salty roe and stop the disfigured spawn of 2006 salmon from ever entering the stream next year. does anybody have any soy sauce?
Let's talk about the end of the day run .... First of all , that wasn't blind index (S&P ,DOW or Qs' ) buying to me. How did the lenders and builders do during the last hour ( let alone the last half hour of our trading session ? ) So , that wasn't it , right ? Second , it wasn't 401(k) money coming in.. could it be that targeted ? You had someone put together a basket of tech stocks and consumer related stocks and the bump that was desired was obtained... what does that mean ? Nothing really if you think about it. Does this board care about a slight bump in Apple , Google or Amazon, Procter /Gamble et al ? However , if you look at the HBs and Lenders , they didn't bounce during the last minute rally , which says alot to me. Just my humble opinion.
Follow up to my prior message ... look at GM , F and DCx charts for today and check out the last hour. Now , just on the basis of the sales numbers that came out today , tell me why someone got religion about these three stocks in the last hour of the day ? Haven't bothered to check but look at Apple , Amazon and Google .. anything there look familiar to you after looking at the charts for GM , F and DCX ? LOL
Dave S.
"The first is the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, which has come to play a pivotal role as a deliberative and coordinating body. Chaired by the Treasury Department, this cross-functional group of banking, securities, and commodities regulators has enhanced the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our nation's
financial markets and has helped maintain investor confidence.
Secretary Paulson has emphasized the important work of this group from his
earliest days on the job, and we at the OCC participate as the primary supervisor of the largest U.S. commercial banks that are the most active derivatives traders in the banking system." 11/10/2006
http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2006-121a.pdf
Comptroller Dugan Tells Bankers that Managing Risk in Derivatives Markets Is Essential to Maintain Public Confidence in Nation's Financial Institutions
There is a working group although I don't know if they are responsible for the move today or not. The market was over sold and ready to bounce regardless from what I could tell.
Tanta,
"LCR" is "Loss Coverage Ratio," or the BL divided by the expected lifetime losses for a given security. The Benchmark LCR here is specifically for seasoned securities (it is not identical to the benchmarks for new issues as it takes into account prepayments of the higher-rated classes). The benchmark LCR is the major factor in determining affirmation or downgrade of a given class.
What is seasoned, and what is affirmation? Thanks.
probert,
I'm not an expert but I'm learning here quite a lot
"Affirmation" is confirmation of the rating. In other words leaving the rating without change.
"Seasoned" securities are "not fresh" securities, after some time from the issue. But I'm not sure by how much.
Kevin,
Yeah... Those are the guys.
I was just pointing out that it's a synonym. Whether you believe they move the markets or not was imaterial; the point was that you can't 'not believe' in something that does indeed exist, in fact. It's sorta' like the terrorist thing... to some they're 'terrorists', to others 'insurgents', and still to others 'jihadists'. The fact is, there's a bunch of guys trying to F things up, and we pretty well know 'who they are'.
I concur with the definition you cited, and perhaps would grant them a little extra juice they may not discuss openly.
Enjoy the discussion here! It's very insightful.
Dave S.
BTW...
I do not have Mesothelioma.
And whatever asbestos I've been exposed can't even compare to my habit of two packs of Camels a day.
Just a thought.
"Comptroller Dugan Tells Bankers that Managing Risk in Derivatives Markets Is Essential to Maintain Public Confidence in [the] Nation's Financial Institutions"
Hmmm... So where in the Constitution does it put the Federal Government in charge of the 'confidence in the nation's financial institutions'?
That very statement is proof enough of behind-the-scenes manipulation of what we call 'free markets'.
We're being gamed. All of us.
So where in the Constitution does it put the Federal Government in charge of the 'confidence in the nation's financial institutions'?
The constitution is a living document, which got flushed in the civil war. Living document means subject to change. It doesnt really mean jack in this day and age although politicians sight it when it suits their fancy. I truly doubt that many of them have read it.
poszi, you are quite right. The rating agencies refer to their process of monitoring existing deals as "surveillance." They have different methodologies for dealing with brand-new issues and "seasoned" issues. As a deal "seasons," it changes: the pool pays down, the bonds pay down, the OC and the excess can grow or shrink, actual losses can have occurred. (On a new issue those things are all still just projections.) So part of what you are doing in "surveillance" is measuring the actual performance against the original projections.
There are four possible outcomes of surveillance review: upgrade, affirmation (staying at the original rating), downgrade, and "watch" or "watch negative." Deals on a watch status are showing some kind of negative trend or troubling characteristic, which are not enough to downgrade them at the moment but which are enough to mean there is the potential for short-term negative action. So they go on a list for heightened review each month as the remittance reports come in.
Do you guys ever sleep?
I get to sleep between diaper changes.
lama, LOL. But don't remind me about diapers... I'll soon have to buy them again.