Holy hell that Cramer episode is some of the best TV ever...
This weekend is so important. Bernanke will definitely issue a statement is my guess, or send one of the Fed Governors to say something, otherwise the market will plunge on Monday.
"Cerberus guarded the gate to Hades and ensured that spirits of the dead could enter, but none could exit (additionally, no living person was to come into Hades)."
I remember Warren Buffett saying in 2003 something to effect "Hell is an easy place to enter but hard to exit."
Some of these money managers are so clueless- " The Subprime Thing" when are they gonna frikin "get it" its not a "subprime thing" is a frikin credit crunch you boneheads.
Pontic financing leading to a bridge to nowhere moment. I wonder how panic might look next monday when everyone tries something stupid at once.
Well...this could be the first war ended by a stockmarket crash followed by the housing market's descent into the abyss. Can't have that, can we? Warm up the rate cut helicopters!
I see no other course- of course metal are going to go up- but then who cares except the five remaining goldbugs left in the USA.
The real question is if the yen carry trade is going to reverse with lower rates here...is the cure going to be worse than the disease?
Someday this war's gonna end...
"Some observers think that the markets are exhibiting classic signs of a so-called "Minsky moment," when overleveraged borrowers must finally pay the piper for their euphoria. The result, they say, will be a credit shortage that could bring down even innocent bystanders in their wake. "
""The feeling I have today is that of watching a very slow motion train wreck," "
I have typed up and junked numerous posts/emails about how the CBNC anchors are behaving in this selloff phase ( mustn't mock the afflict as the Brit bawdy comedian Frankie Howard used to say ) over the last few days but today !
The disintegration of Erin Burnett is a sight ! Bob PISSani ( with a hat-tip for that name mock to Accidental Death of an Anarchist - Dario Fo) seems to have lost his ardor too..
Maria - well after the initial squeals of indignance and pumpup(sovereign funds anybody) - seems to be reverting to her prior professionalism - or perhaps she's the ultimate opportunist and after paying her dues to the bulls now goes where the wind blows..
As regards Cramer - well we know his favorite horse is HOOF Hearted ( try saying it ) - but his knowledge of the Russian revolution ( the 1802, 1905, 1917 versions ) saves him in my book. There's hope for him - in another life.
I don't usually have CNBC on but just happened to today when Cramer had his meltdown.
Gee, he's crying about the thousands of jobs to be lost (in the investment banking industry no doubt) and how tragic it was. Of course when the jobs are in other industries its all good...raising productivity and profits, and boosting stock prices don't ya know. God, he makes me wanna puke.
I bet Manhattan real estate prices are about to 'adjust'.
Randolph Duke: Exactly why do you think the price of pork bellies is going to keep going down, William? Billy Ray Valentine: Okay, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning, which means that everybody is waiting for it to hit rock bottom, so they can buy low. Which means that the people who own the pork belly contracts are saying, "Hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain't gonna f... my wife ain't gonna make love to me if I got no money!" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it. [on the ticker machine, the price keeps dropping] Randolph Duke: He's right, Mortimer! My God, look at it!
NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - C-BASS LLC, which issues and invests in home loans to less credit-worthy borrowers, said on Friday it has retained private equity firm Blackstone Group (BX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to help it obtain more capital.
C-BASS faces a liquidity crisis that has forced its two biggest investors, MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Radian Group Inc. (RDN.N: Quote, Profile, Research), to consider writing down more than $1 billion worth of their investment in C-BASS.
C-BASS said in a statement that it has been working with a number of investors to resolve its liquidity problems and create "a long-term partnership."
MGIC, the largest independent mortgage insurer, said on Monday that it could be forced to write down the entire value of a $516 million investment in C-BASS.
Radian, which is being acquired by MGIC, also owns a stake in C-BASS and faces a possible $518 million write-down.
MGIC and Radian provide insurance for residential mortgages. (Reporting by Ed Leefeldt)
Splat. Beeeg splat. What if mortgage insurance MGIC and Radian go bust? Ummmm PMI dead too?
Rate cut? Why? Rates are not the issue.
Prices are an issue. Lending standards are an issue. Incomprehensible dicing and redistribution of risk is an issue. Overbuilding of housing is an issue.
Rates are just fine.
Cutting rates just puts liquidity back in the hands of the people who have abused it and made all the above-listed problems.
CR I saw it, it is quite the rant about how the market can't take higher interest rates anymore, 'cause the housing market is starting to crack, and Cramer's take was darn near theatrical in nature.
Well, first it was just too hot, then too cold, then just right.
Bernanke has to sip the porridge that Greenspan left for him.
The only problem I see with letting the markets fall is that it does nothing for the underlying mortgage market lockup that is occuring with fantastic speed. That is going to destroy house prices just like 20% down will make the housing market lock up until REOs force it to face reality. One of these factors would probably allow orderly adjustments, but both will cause a panic that is too damaging to the financial system in this country.
Saw it Lama- I just didn't believe he would come out and say that the fed should provide liquidity through the discount window. Unless things are really much worse than the Mainstream Financial media has let on...in that case, he just might be right.
That should scare all of us right down to our financial boots. The DISCOUNT WINDOW- which has been closed for years.
Maybe selling everything and sitting on a pile of Jas cash wouldn't be the worst thing to do...but getting a bit more liquid would probably be good too. Deleveraging is going to be ugly for the private equity folks.
After all, who knows how many loans are out there secured by a trading strategy that purports to be LTCM market neutral.
Asking the Fed to cut rates is kind of paradoxical when the Fed has been on record for quite some time warning everyone about protracted periods of miserly risk premiums and the loving kindness of history.
So why should the Fed act to cut rates? They already acted, what you see now is what they said was coming.
I guess that you young guys weren't around in 1987 to watch the DOW lose 22% in ONE DAY - today's equivalent about 3000 DOW points - on it's way to a 38% loss in a matter of days.
Just relax everyone, this too shall pass. We haven't had a 10% correction in the S&P 500 in so long people forget what it feels like - and we aren't even to 10% yet. A 20% correction at this point in the cycle would be quite normal. Just relax.
The bad players perhaps including Bear Sterns will be gone and many others chastized. It will be a good to great buying opportunity.
The point is the investment bankers have been very very bad. As a society, we don't want them to get away with running to moma Fed every time they get into trouble. The excesses have been incredible. They were barely touched by the dot-com bubble that they created.
This is smelling more and more like the early 1990's with the S&L crisis. A bunch of banks and other insitutions will be gone, others forced to merge, and enough feedback into the real economy to cause a recession, but not a depression. Eventually there will be some great values in the financial sector, but at a minumum need to wait a few months. Not even close to half of the bag holders have been identified. Wait to find out who holds most of the crap. Then somewhere around Holloween will be a good time to buy. The market might be down another 10% overall from here, with much more damage in the finaicial sector, but the U.S. will survive. Fortunately the rest of the world is still growing nicely, so favor companies that get lots of their earnings from abroad (or just go and buy in the overseas markets). Energy is still a great long term play, because there is no way the Saudi's and the rest of the gulf states have anywhere near the amount of reserves they claim.
SWEET! I bought some JPM puts a few weeks ago hoping they would get a nice shiny pier. I just hope Chrysler melts down before January 2009. Given the experience I had with a Chrysler product five years ago, that should be no problem.
Just relax everyone, this too shall pass. We haven't had a 10% correction in the S&P 500 in so long people forget what it feels like - and we aren't even to 10% yet. A 20% correction at this point in the cycle would be quite normal. Just relax.
The bad players perhaps including Bear Sterns will be gone and many others chastized. It will be a good to great buying opportunity.
Tennis_8
Hey, Tennis old buddy is this that HUGE move you were referring to a week or so ago. Oh that's right, you said it would be up. So how's that call working out?
I can't wait until Cerberus brings over those Cherry Autos from China and sells them their Chrysler dealers. The timing of this introduction of chinese autos into the American market could not be worse if they tried. Who in their right mind would want to buy a cheap piece of junk from China in the middle of a depression. By 2009 there will be so much corn being consumed by E85 plants that people will have a hard time putting food on their family. GWB 2000
Kevin, I'll let you know in a couple months. I'm not a trader so short term corrections actually don't phase me.
I always expect an emotional 10% correction to begin any day and at this late stage of the cycle, a rapid (3 to 4 month)20% correction can be expected as in 1998, 1999, etc.
"I always expect an emotional 10% correction to begin any day and at this late stage of the cycle, a rapid (3 to 4 month)20% correction can be expected as in 1998, 1999, etc."
"My comment was about what is actually going on in the equities market where the public is quite bearish, as are advisers and (as I posted yesterday from Bloomberg) are short sellers (3.3% of total equities sold short - the highest since 1931)."
"This is the best possible background for a hugh move in the stock markets."
Tennis_8 | 07.15.07 - 12:08 pm | #
Fair enough Tennis, but on 7/15 you were pretty damn bullish and the bears were right. I'm always hedged and have been making money on this sell off, I also dont short individual stocks. The S&P is going to 1415 minimum and I see 1288 as a distinct possibility IMHOP.
Would you like to tie me up with some of your ties, Ty?
And Cramer's head explodes while yelling at Poole and Bernanke for a rate cut.
This is getting really funny!
Going to be rate cuts to 3.25% to save the mortgage market.
Bounce to be followed by slow grinder market to bring down P/E until real profits can be made buying stocks.
Bonds going to jump again- but only ones that really are AAA.
Commodities to the moon.
Bought some more natural gas futures today. Hurricanes or a cold winter, I don't care which comes first.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Holy hell that Cramer episode is some of the best TV ever...
This weekend is so important. Bernanke will definitely issue a statement is my guess, or send one of the Fed Governors to say something, otherwise the market will plunge on Monday.
Black Monday?
Ron Insana was just on CNBC he is the only one that is not being an actor. Everyone else acting like everything is ok (talking their book).
Ron Insana,
"We are whistling past the graveyard"
Classic.
Cerberus per Wikipedia:
"Cerberus guarded the gate to Hades and ensured that spirits of the dead could enter, but none could exit (additionally, no living person was to come into Hades)."
I remember Warren Buffett saying in 2003 something to effect "Hell is an easy place to enter but hard to exit."
Some of these money managers are so clueless- " The Subprime Thing" when are they gonna frikin "get it" its not a "subprime thing" is a frikin credit crunch you boneheads.
Pontic financing leading to a bridge to nowhere moment. I wonder how panic might look next monday when everyone tries something stupid at once.
Well...this could be the first war ended by a stockmarket crash followed by the housing market's descent into the abyss. Can't have that, can we? Warm up the rate cut helicopters!
I see no other course- of course metal are going to go up- but then who cares except the five remaining goldbugs left in the USA.
The real question is if the yen carry trade is going to reverse with lower rates here...is the cure going to be worse than the disease?
Someday this war's gonna end...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economic-katrina-about-overtake-financial/story.aspx?guid={2C57B7C4-AAEC-490A-AE79-B65E9F5FBCBC}&siteid=yahoomy
"Economic Katrina"
"Some observers think that the markets are exhibiting classic signs of a so-called "Minsky moment," when overleveraged borrowers must finally pay the piper for their euphoria. The result, they say, will be a credit shortage that could bring down even innocent bystanders in their wake. "
""The feeling I have today is that of watching a very slow motion train wreck," "
They ALMOST sound negative!
"Slow motion train wreck," indeed.
The Epicurean Dealmaker: Marks in the Sand
The Epicurean Dealmaker: Like I Said
The Epicurean Dealmaker: The Great Chain of Being
I have typed up and junked numerous posts/emails about how the CBNC anchors are behaving in this selloff phase ( mustn't mock the afflict as the Brit bawdy comedian Frankie Howard used to say ) over the last few days but today !
The disintegration of Erin Burnett is a sight ! Bob PISSani ( with a hat-tip for that name mock to Accidental Death of an Anarchist - Dario Fo) seems to have lost his ardor too..
Maria - well after the initial squeals of indignance and pumpup(sovereign funds anybody) - seems to be reverting to her prior professionalism - or perhaps she's the ultimate opportunist and after paying her dues to the bulls now goes where the wind blows..
As regards Cramer - well we know his favorite horse is HOOF Hearted ( try saying it ) - but his knowledge of the Russian revolution ( the 1802, 1905, 1917 versions ) saves him in my book. There's hope for him - in another life.
-K
I don't usually have CNBC on but just happened to today when Cramer had his meltdown.
Gee, he's crying about the thousands of jobs to be lost (in the investment banking industry no doubt) and how tragic it was. Of course when the jobs are in other industries its all good...raising productivity and profits, and boosting stock prices don't ya know. God, he makes me wanna puke.
I bet Manhattan real estate prices are about to 'adjust'.
After such a bodacious day, it's time for a beer. What the hell, it's time for two beers, maybe three.
Get ready for Monday.
Randolph Duke: Exactly why do you think the price of pork bellies is going to keep going down, William?
Billy Ray Valentine: Okay, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning, which means that everybody is waiting for it to hit rock bottom, so they can buy low. Which means that the people who own the pork belly contracts are saying, "Hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain't gonna f... my wife ain't gonna make love to me if I got no money!" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it.
[on the ticker machine, the price keeps dropping]
Randolph Duke: He's right, Mortimer! My God, look at it!
TANTA-
CBASS liquidity problems!!!!
UPDATE 1-C-BASS retains Blackstone to seek more capital
| Reuters
(Recasts, adds background on companies)
NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - C-BASS LLC, which issues and invests in home loans to less credit-worthy borrowers, said on Friday it has retained private equity firm Blackstone Group (BX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to help it obtain more capital.
C-BASS faces a liquidity crisis that has forced its two biggest investors, MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Radian Group Inc. (RDN.N: Quote, Profile, Research), to consider writing down more than $1 billion worth of their investment in C-BASS.
C-BASS said in a statement that it has been working with a number of investors to resolve its liquidity problems and create "a long-term partnership."
MGIC, the largest independent mortgage insurer, said on Monday that it could be forced to write down the entire value of a $516 million investment in C-BASS.
Radian, which is being acquired by MGIC, also owns a stake in C-BASS and faces a possible $518 million write-down.
MGIC and Radian provide insurance for residential mortgages. (Reporting by Ed Leefeldt)
Splat. Beeeg splat. What if mortgage insurance MGIC and Radian go bust? Ummmm PMI dead too?
There will be no residential mortgage market.
Banker- do you smell the fear and panic now?
Someday this war's gonna end...
DenverKen- "Gee, he's crying about the thousands of jobs to be lost (in the investment banking industry no doubt) and how tragic it was. "
Hey, Jimbo, what goes around comes around.
AllenM, here is the video of Cramer:
Video - CNBC.com
Best to all.
Rate cut? Why? Rates are not the issue.
Prices are an issue. Lending standards are an issue. Incomprehensible dicing and redistribution of risk is an issue. Overbuilding of housing is an issue.
Rates are just fine.
Cutting rates just puts liquidity back in the hands of the people who have abused it and made all the above-listed problems.
CR I saw it, it is quite the rant about how the market can't take higher interest rates anymore, 'cause the housing market is starting to crack, and Cramer's take was darn near theatrical in nature.
Well, first it was just too hot, then too cold, then just right.
Bernanke has to sip the porridge that Greenspan left for him.
The only problem I see with letting the markets fall is that it does nothing for the underlying mortgage market lockup that is occuring with fantastic speed. That is going to destroy house prices just like 20% down will make the housing market lock up until REOs force it to face reality. One of these factors would probably allow orderly adjustments, but both will cause a panic that is too damaging to the financial system in this country.
Someday this war's gonna end...
wally, exactly. This is a classic credit crunch with credit being restricted for non-price reasons.
BEst Wishes.
Today was definitely a Col. Mortimer Market Moment. It's time to load up "For A Few Dollars More."
Wow today was worse than I thought. Market data on Yahoo says 2331% of NYSE stocks were down.
With the demise of the newspaper biz, how am I gnna get my hoover blankets?
I guess I could sew a quilt from New Century share certificates
"otherwise the market will plunge on Monday"
Good, the sooner the gap on SPY chart at 128.87 gets filled the better.
That's a long way down look out below.
Gap at 142.46 will fill easy next week IMHOP.
AllenM,
Your employer may be blocking videos from CNBC. Mine is. @#%&*!!
Well, CR, here comes the global credit crunch.
Saw it Lama- I just didn't believe he would come out and say that the fed should provide liquidity through the discount window. Unless things are really much worse than the Mainstream Financial media has let on...in that case, he just might be right.
That should scare all of us right down to our financial boots. The DISCOUNT WINDOW- which has been closed for years.
Maybe selling everything and sitting on a pile of Jas cash wouldn't be the worst thing to do...but getting a bit more liquid would probably be good too. Deleveraging is going to be ugly for the private equity folks.
After all, who knows how many loans are out there secured by a trading strategy that purports to be LTCM market neutral.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Lower rates WILL NOT HELP
cdo,cdo,cds market's are anout to implode
counter parties won't pay...
Jimmy crack Cayne spent all day in the cane field to sugar coat that release today
Rate cut? Why? Rates are not the issue.
Absolutely. Pricing of risk is the issue.
Asking the Fed to cut rates is kind of paradoxical when the Fed has been on record for quite some time warning everyone about protracted periods of miserly risk premiums and the loving kindness of history.
So why should the Fed act to cut rates? They already acted, what you see now is what they said was coming.
I guess that you young guys weren't around in 1987 to watch the DOW lose 22% in ONE DAY - today's equivalent about 3000 DOW points - on it's way to a 38% loss in a matter of days.
Just relax everyone, this too shall pass. We haven't had a 10% correction in the S&P 500 in so long people forget what it feels like - and we aren't even to 10% yet. A 20% correction at this point in the cycle would be quite normal. Just relax.
The bad players perhaps including Bear Sterns will be gone and many others chastized. It will be a good to great buying opportunity.
Tennis- "I guess that you young guys weren't around in 1987 to watch the DOW lose 22% in ONE DAY.."
I was around for the Penn-Central bankruptcy, and was there for the end of go-go days. Is that good enough?
Forces leading to a good old fashioned 80's style recession:
6 Feedback to economy of high energy costs.
10 Some countervailing help domestically from weak dollar
mp - We are approximately the same age.
We had 20% drops in 1998 and 1999 as well and the markets recovered in 3 to 4 months.
This type of thing is to be expected.
The point is the investment bankers have been very very bad. As a society, we don't want them to get away with running to moma Fed every time they get into trouble. The excesses have been incredible. They were barely touched by the dot-com bubble that they created.
Tennis, I agree, but I think we've got a different set of fundamentals at work here.
But the Long Term Capital, the Asian currency crisis and the Russian bond defaults weren't exactly a cake walk for many players.
In any case the FED shouldn't intervene any time soon - maybe it will have to later - but not because Crammer and his buddies are hurting.
I agree. Fed intervention is the last thing you want to see right now.
This is smelling more and more like the early 1990's with the S&L crisis. A bunch of banks and other insitutions will be gone, others forced to merge, and enough feedback into the real economy to cause a recession, but not a depression. Eventually there will be some great values in the financial sector, but at a minumum need to wait a few months. Not even close to half of the bag holders have been identified. Wait to find out who holds most of the crap. Then somewhere around Holloween will be a good time to buy. The market might be down another 10% overall from here, with much more damage in the finaicial sector, but the U.S. will survive. Fortunately the rest of the world is still growing nicely, so favor companies that get lots of their earnings from abroad (or just go and buy in the overseas markets). Energy is still a great long term play, because there is no way the Saudi's and the rest of the gulf states have anywhere near the amount of reserves they claim.
SWEET! I bought some JPM puts a few weeks ago hoping they would get a nice shiny pier. I just hope Chrysler melts down before January 2009. Given the experience I had with a Chrysler product five years ago, that should be no problem.
Just relax everyone, this too shall pass. We haven't had a 10% correction in the S&P 500 in so long people forget what it feels like - and we aren't even to 10% yet. A 20% correction at this point in the cycle would be quite normal. Just relax.
The bad players perhaps including Bear Sterns will be gone and many others chastized. It will be a good to great buying opportunity.
Tennis_8
Hey, Tennis old buddy is this that HUGE move you were referring to a week or so ago. Oh that's right, you said it would be up. So how's that call working out?
Damn,
I spend the day helping a buddy move and I miss all the good stuff!
I can't wait until Cerberus brings over those Cherry Autos from China and sells them their Chrysler dealers. The timing of this introduction of chinese autos into the American market could not be worse if they tried. Who in their right mind would want to buy a cheap piece of junk from China in the middle of a depression. By 2009 there will be so much corn being consumed by E85 plants that people will have a hard time putting food on their family. GWB 2000
Kevin, I'll let you know in a couple months. I'm not a trader so short term corrections actually don't phase me.
I always expect an emotional 10% correction to begin any day and at this late stage of the cycle, a rapid (3 to 4 month)20% correction can be expected as in 1998, 1999, etc.
"I always expect an emotional 10% correction to begin any day and at this late stage of the cycle, a rapid (3 to 4 month)20% correction can be expected as in 1998, 1999, etc."
"My comment was about what is actually going on in the equities market where the public is quite bearish, as are advisers and (as I posted yesterday from Bloomberg) are short sellers (3.3% of total equities sold short - the highest since 1931)."
"This is the best possible background for a hugh move in the stock markets."
Tennis_8 | 07.15.07 - 12:08 pm | #
Fair enough Tennis, but on 7/15 you were pretty damn bullish and the bears were right. I'm always hedged and have been making money on this sell off, I also dont short individual stocks. The S&P is going to 1415 minimum and I see 1288 as a distinct possibility IMHOP.