Chuckle chuckle. 20% drops dont seem so bad when the numbers are so much smaller. Hehehe. These dudes are so calm about it. How quaint. The best part was the , uh, I dont know what number we've fallen to.
vader, Asia looks OK - just off a little. I'm not making any dire predictons for tomorrow with this video, but I thought it was interesting.
I remember Black Monday very well - and Bill took it pretty calmly considering how other people were reacting that day. Ed Hart rambling on about technical indicators is pretty funny too.
This was long before program trades and eft. The swift sharp declines, if any, will be amplified. I think that the scope of this pending Black Monday...that I am reading in the blogs over the last 48hrs... might just not be realized. Some may just hang onto their coattails and sees where she flies. OTOH, it might be a sudden sharp drop with no subsequent volume.
I was around in 87. Thanks for the revisit! I recall no takers at any price!! Very scary indeed. At the time.
Really, what's the point in sleeping when you can just be completely zombified at the start of tomorrow's madness? So, a few stray mouseclicks on Etrade here, or there, never hurt anybody. Hehe. He. He.
Looks like I'm first on the "already slept" shift. Futures are moderately positive. After violating so much support on Friday, I estimate that we have another 1,000 pts down on the DOW down in the next few weeks.
There are at least three big risks for bottom caller---margin calls, selling in mutual fund retirement accounts and more bad news. Seems really likely that more companies will warn about hits from the credit crunch. It could be banks, stand alone lenders or hedge funds.
The FED can either keep their current outlook and say that inflation is the greater risk or say that economic slowdown is becoming a risk. This means that they could cut at the next meeting (in Sept.?). I don't see how either of these options do much for the Street.
everyone seems to be looking for the short-term answer to the markets, this is truly a fools game considering the leverage in the system.
The economic fundamentals cannot support the current level of leverage, the unwind will continue, and a Fed that has clearly been asleep at the wheel will eventually come to the realization that the current situation is beyond their control only when the recession is evident.
The question that should be on everyone's mind is how could so many "smart" people have missed the weakness? More and more I read countries outside of the US where their officials are quoted attempting to decouple their markets/declare a decoupling due to the inherent problems here. These officials understand the magnitude of the problems facing the US, problem is our officials are blind to the underlying fundamental weakness. There will be no decoupling, the US will lead the global economy, has for decades, and this will continue for the foreseeable future.
It ain't different, has never been different, and ain't different this time.
The subprime crisis and its implications for the rest of the economy are weighing on stocks,'' said Alexandre Iatrides, who helps manage about $5 billion in assets at Richelieu Finance in Paris.This is more than a market correction. You have to be really cautious.''
(end quote)
Week end of worry followed by day of panic. By the way, what day of week is it? The Mamas and Papas know:
Monday Monday, so good to me,
Monday Monday, it was all I hoped it would be
Oh Monday morning, Monday morning couldn't guarantee
That Monday evening you would still be here with me.
Monday Monday, can't trust that day,
Monday Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way
Oh Monday morning, you gave me no warning of what was to be
Oh Monday Monday, how yould cou leave and not take me.
Every other day, every other day,
Every other day of the week is fine, yeah
But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes
You can find me cryin' all of the time
Monday Monday, so good to me,
Monday Monday, it was all I hoped it would be
Oh Monday morning, Monday morning couldn't guarantee
That Monday evening you would still be here with me.
Every other day, every other day,
Every other day of the week is fine, yeah
But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes
You can find me cryin' all of the time
My thinking exactly but as put holder I must get the timing right as well.
As for CFC: does anyone know if they have 186B total funding of which 46B is short term does this means they have net 140B at their disposal even if wharehouse lines are cut ?
I think they originate about 3B per day - is that right. This number must be lower going forward.
So their point is "we have enogh liquidity" - right ?
Cramer's tirade on Friday is still getting attention, what should take place is pulling that blow-hard off of the mainstream media. He causes far more damage than good. The credit markets are currently pissing all over his wheaties and he goes ballistic, too funny, couple weeks prior he was naming lbo targets, what a complete and utter moron he is.
A non financial risk to the financial markets is panic and loss of confidence or even the realization of reality.
When things are frothy that loss is significant. We have the Bear guy firing his top lieutenant for what appears to be personal reasons and the bubble mouth piece panicing.
This is one of the most ironic news items ever to me:
"Cerberus named ex-Home Depot chief Nardelli to head its newly acquired Chrysler, marking a shift in the way the auto maker deals with changes sweeping the industry."
Meanwhile, UBS upgraded Merrill Lynch to buy from neutral, saying the fallout from the mortgage and credit businesses is mostly discounted in the broker's valuation. Merrill Lynch shares rose 1.8% in pre-open moves while TD Ameritrade , also upgraded by UBS, rose 3%.
If there is a dramatic move down, the most notable difference will be the networks will almost immediately have special market-crash graphics splashing across the screens. The TV coverage will be much more entertaining.
I suspect "Neutron-Lite" Bob was brought in to take out big chuncks of cost and headcount based on his experience working at Jack Welsh's GE. I worked in GE Power Systems when Nardelli was the head and I was very unimpressed. He was basically a "make the numbers" one-trick pony - but that may be what is wanted.
The FED cares about the dollar because if the dollar drops, the price of all imported goods will increase and the FED will have a problem concealing or ignoring it.
Asia markets for the sleep impaired.
Major World Indices - Yahoo! Finance
Chuckle chuckle. 20% drops dont seem so bad when the numbers are so much smaller. Hehehe. These dudes are so calm about it. How quaint. The best part was the , uh, I dont know what number we've fallen to.
vader, Asia looks OK - just off a little. I'm not making any dire predictons for tomorrow with this video, but I thought it was interesting.
I remember Black Monday very well - and Bill took it pretty calmly considering how other people were reacting that day. Ed Hart rambling on about technical indicators is pretty funny too.
Best Wishes.
When it looks like a megaphone?
Geoff, the numbers do seem small. I liked how Bill stumbled over a few of the numbers too ... "off thirty .. uh, 376 points"
The advance / decline numbers were pretty wild too.
Best Wishes.
Also, Ed Hart talked about the other things that were going to get hit - cars, condos, etc. - and none of that happened. The economy was fine.
Best to all.
This was long before program trades and eft. The swift sharp declines, if any, will be amplified. I think that the scope of this pending Black Monday...that I am reading in the blogs over the last 48hrs... might just not be realized. Some may just hang onto their coattails and sees where she flies. OTOH, it might be a sudden sharp drop with no subsequent volume.
I was around in 87. Thanks for the revisit! I recall no takers at any price!! Very scary indeed. At the time.
Is tomorrow Black Monday?
yea nothing black on Asia, yet.
like I said for the sleep impaired.
Barley, I don't think so - there is nothing to suggest a big down move tomorrow.
Sleep well!
No sleep til Crooklyn!!!
Really, what's the point in sleeping when you can just be completely zombified at the start of tomorrow's madness? So, a few stray mouseclicks on Etrade here, or there, never hurt anybody. Hehe. He. He.
Uh, ok, Im off to bed.
DX took a very good swing at 80 in the last few minutes...
INO Equities Stocks Indexes - U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX) Price Chart and Quote
No Black Monady.
Fed could not care less about the US $.
Fed care about:
Will a rate cut now add stability ?
I am not so sure.
The chinese are celebrating the last frifay market plunge in US with a 1.2% surge in the Shanghai index.
Within a stone throw from the 5000 marks. Long live the Olympics
Looks like I'm first on the "already slept" shift. Futures are moderately positive. After violating so much support on Friday, I estimate that we have another 1,000 pts down on the DOW down in the next few weeks.
There are at least three big risks for bottom caller---margin calls, selling in mutual fund retirement accounts and more bad news. Seems really likely that more companies will warn about hits from the credit crunch. It could be banks, stand alone lenders or hedge funds.
The FED can either keep their current outlook and say that inflation is the greater risk or say that economic slowdown is becoming a risk. This means that they could cut at the next meeting (in Sept.?). I don't see how either of these options do much for the Street.
Bill,
London is remarkably resilient... It opened down but is now 3pts up. It mustn't expect a bad day when New York opens.
Though it does look likely that the US$ will enter free fall this week and hopefully we will eventually get a breakthrough of $700 in gold.
Then we will know we are on our way!
Countrywide: Net Available Liquidity $186.5B At Jun 30 >CFC
Expired
notice the date: June 30th.
wonder what do they have left by July 30th and by Aug 15th ?
yal-
everyone seems to be looking for the short-term answer to the markets, this is truly a fools game considering the leverage in the system.
The economic fundamentals cannot support the current level of leverage, the unwind will continue, and a Fed that has clearly been asleep at the wheel will eventually come to the realization that the current situation is beyond their control only when the recession is evident.
The question that should be on everyone's mind is how could so many "smart" people have missed the weakness? More and more I read countries outside of the US where their officials are quoted attempting to decouple their markets/declare a decoupling due to the inherent problems here. These officials understand the magnitude of the problems facing the US, problem is our officials are blind to the underlying fundamental weakness. There will be no decoupling, the US will lead the global economy, has for decades, and this will continue for the foreseeable future.
It ain't different, has never been different, and ain't different this time.
Plunge day!!!
Bloomber, this morning:
(quote)
The subprime crisis and its implications for the rest of the economy are weighing on stocks,'' said Alexandre Iatrides, who helps manage about $5 billion in assets at Richelieu Finance in Paris.This is more than a market correction. You have to be really cautious.''
(end quote)
Week end of worry followed by day of panic. By the way, what day of week is it? The Mamas and Papas know:
Monday Monday, so good to me,
Monday Monday, it was all I hoped it would be
Oh Monday morning, Monday morning couldn't guarantee
That Monday evening you would still be here with me.
Monday Monday, can't trust that day,
Monday Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way
Oh Monday morning, you gave me no warning of what was to be
Oh Monday Monday, how yould cou leave and not take me.
Every other day, every other day,
Every other day of the week is fine, yeah
But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes
You can find me cryin' all of the time
Monday Monday, so good to me,
Monday Monday, it was all I hoped it would be
Oh Monday morning, Monday morning couldn't guarantee
That Monday evening you would still be here with me.
Every other day, every other day,
Every other day of the week is fine, yeah
But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes
You can find me cryin' all of the time
Risk C,
My thinking exactly but as put holder I must get the timing right as well.
As for CFC: does anyone know if they have 186B total funding of which 46B is short term does this means they have net 140B at their disposal even if wharehouse lines are cut ?
I think they originate about 3B per day - is that right. This number must be lower going forward.
So their point is "we have enogh liquidity" - right ?
RiskC:
This is for you:
Friday's Action Was A Much-Needed Dose of Reality -- Seeking Alpha
You may have read it already (Hack for what I know you may have written it..
yal-
cannot take credit for that one, but, agree.
Cramer's tirade on Friday is still getting attention, what should take place is pulling that blow-hard off of the mainstream media. He causes far more damage than good. The credit markets are currently pissing all over his wheaties and he goes ballistic, too funny, couple weeks prior he was naming lbo targets, what a complete and utter moron he is.
A non financial risk to the financial markets is panic and loss of confidence or even the realization of reality.
When things are frothy that loss is significant. We have the Bear guy firing his top lieutenant for what appears to be personal reasons and the bubble mouth piece panicing.
Not a good thing.
This is one of the most ironic news items ever to me:
"Cerberus named ex-Home Depot chief Nardelli to head its newly acquired Chrysler, marking a shift in the way the auto maker deals with changes sweeping the industry."
Regards,
Nardelli seems like a terrible choice to me...
U.S. stock futures rise amid Merrill Lynch upgrade
Meanwhile, UBS upgraded Merrill Lynch to buy from neutral, saying the fallout from the mortgage and credit businesses is mostly discounted in the broker's valuation. Merrill Lynch shares rose 1.8% in pre-open moves while TD Ameritrade , also upgraded by UBS, rose 3%.
Europe was down a bit
Major World Indices - Yahoo! Finance
Futures Link for the few who do stream it here.
Major U.S. Indices - Yahoo! Finance
If there is a dramatic move down, the most notable difference will be the networks will almost immediately have special market-crash graphics splashing across the screens. The TV coverage will be much more entertaining.
"Nardelli seems like a terrible choice to me..."
Next, they'll probably name Nardelli's buddy, Larry Johnston, to some position ....
I suspect "Neutron-Lite" Bob was brought in to take out big chuncks of cost and headcount based on his experience working at Jack Welsh's GE. I worked in GE Power Systems when Nardelli was the head and I was very unimpressed. He was basically a "make the numbers" one-trick pony - but that may be what is wanted.
Nc Jim,
I was trying to make sense of Nardelli and all I could think was that Cerberus believes Chrysler can be saved through cost-cutting alone.
I don't know, it seems to me their cars stink and designs have to be improved as well.
The FED cares about the dollar because if the dollar drops, the price of all imported goods will increase and the FED will have a problem concealing or ignoring it.
cwd:
no no no. thats what theory tells you. it hasn't shown up just yet has it?
and the dollar is down what, 40% from its high's in the 1.20's?
The Dow should fall like that more often. It's amusing and makes for great clips on YouTube.