And lucky me because I was about to embark on a detailed analysis of LUM and RWT for potential investment when things get REALLY ugly. But now with filing and cc delays, it's a management thing. I don't want to go long this management team.
Uh, again, somewhat tell me what (super)Novastar saw today with their fresh eyes? Looks like they must be in another universe than the other shining object in the sky (LUM)
Off topic? Maybe. Bobblehead Cramer just called for the resignation of Poole. Can we demand equal time? I mean come on. Sure Cramer is irritainment writ large but calling for Fed resignations?
On topic. Luminent... since August 3...the mortgage industry...deteriorated significantly and in an unprecedented fashion.
Excuuuuse meeeee. It is Aug 6th and two of the last three days were a weekend. This isn't a freakin' meteor strike. These very things have happened before and are not unprecedented.
Thanks, CR. Was wondering if this was another AHM in the making and sure looks like it. Also wondering how much insider trading was done in the past few days?
Given the recent stress in the subprime market, investors should distinguish our asset management
business model from that of a subprime originator. We do not acquire subprime mortgage loans. We are
not a direct originator of mortgage loans and therefore we are not subject to early payment default claims.
We acquire mortgage loans exclusively from well-capitalized originators who meet our standards for
financial and operational quality. We maintain ample liquidity to manage our business and have largely
match-funded our balance sheet. During the last year, we have substantially reduced our reliance on shortterm
repurchase agreement funding. As such, we experienced no liquidity strains during the recent market
turmoil.
Now, I ask you, if LUM can't see 6 days into their own future,
how is it we are supposed to believe GDP projections, or spillover projections, or forward earnings projections, or anything out of anybody's mouth no matter how "in the know" they are.
but it looks to me that given the scale of the problem this will just be a drop in the big wide ocean
Absolutely. This isn't a "bailout," it's an attempt to be seen doing something. Unless I've lost my mind, which I have been in danger of all day for one reason or another, it'll be just like the big "bailout" issue we had back in June with Teh Subprime. The GSEs will pony up enough money to get some headlines, not enough to save any but the thin top slice of the Alt-A market. They'll also get to force through a few changes in their own underwriting guidelines without the CFCs and Indys bitching about it to their congresscritter, because the fact of the limited modified partial bailout thingie means the lenders have to act nice.
History doesn't repeat itself - at best it sometimes rhymes. - Mark Twain
I knew someone who once worked at Luminant (not the same company). Here's an article from 2001.
Once Heartily Jeered Luminant to Sell All Assets Newly-bankrupt Luminant Worldwide Corp. (Quote) -- the high-tech consulting firm held up for mockery by a writer who posed as a junior project manager at the company's New York City office and scribed a piece about his adventure for The New Yorker magazine -- agreed to sell its assets to rival Lante Corp. (Quote) Monday.
Houston-based Luminant, or what's left of it from restructuring and last week's filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, will receive about $3 million for its client relationships and contracts, intellectual property and software from Chicago's Lante.
In what is perhaps a bit of understatement, Luminant Chief Executive Officer Jim Corey said the high-tech consulting market "has been extremely difficult this year" and noted that business for such services slowed to a crawl after September 11th.
"This event, coupled with our thin cash position and heavy debt load made this asset sale the most prudent step for our creditors, clients, alliance partners and employees," Corey said.
Can history both repeat AND rhyme? Surely it is possible. Where's the New Yorker when we need it?
One year ago last week, Luminant drew jeers from hecklers after a story written by one Rodney Rothman, a former head writer of "Late Show With David Letterman", pegged the firm as a typical high-flying dot-com, replete with on-site massages, yoga and various other perks prevalent in New Economy businesses. Unfortunately for both Luminant and the high-brow literary magazine it appeared in, The New Yorker the story, while it detailed true occurrences and situations over a 17-day period, was rooted in deception; Rothman was not an employee of the firm, although he posed as a junior project manager.
In defense of Mark Twain, there's no way he could have seen this coming. He died before we fell off the gold standard, lol.
if LUM can't see 6 days into their own future,how is it we are supposed to believe GDP projections, or spillover projections, or forward earnings projections, or anything out of anybody's mouth no matter how "in the know" they are.
Who the heck told you to "believe" any of that? The very best any of those projections/predictions are are highly educated, well thought out guesses based upon certain trends continuing and others changing. For Example, 2008 GDP projections are all over the place from the depression loons here and elsewhere to a recession this year to 2-3% real growth to Kudlow's we will go up forever and then some!
Literally my first day working on Wall Street 1985 here was the very first lesson I was taught.
Bill Wolfe holds up five years of projections by company xyz *
What do we know about these projections?...THEY ARE WRONG!
Do your homework, check managements' history etc. but don't take anybody's word for it. The best they are offering is an educated guess. Too much can change and no one can forsee the future. Buffet has made many bad investments in his career, even the very best screw up reasonably often.
"SAN FRANCISCO, CA., July 30, 2007/PRNewswire-FirstCall/ Luminent Mortgage Capital, Inc. (NYSE: LUM) announced today that its second quarter dividend payment of $0.32 per share, payable to stockholders on August 8, 2007, is secure and will not be canceled.
In addition, Luminent confirmed that as of July 30, 2007 it is in full compliance with all its financial covenants. Furthermore, Luminent confirmed that as of July 30, 2007 it had ample liquidity to manage its business."
This volatility is a perfectly designed attack on the retail investor, shaking out longs and shorts with violent swings both ways. I expect a 400pt day tomorrow. Which way, probably down but who knows. It depends on how many shorts were squeezed today.
Motherf*****. One of my hedge fund friends left a message on my answering machine yesterday that they were going to drive up CFC 10% today to blow out a bunch of the shorts and ride it up, and they wanted my help. I didn't get the message until just now. Apparently the only got it up 7% and I was the missing 3%.
I missed out on a guaranteed 10% return today. >:(
The raging lunatic monster Don Evans appeared on that liar Larry Kudlows show today and spewed lie after lie after lie.
Robert Cote | 08.06.07 - 8:02 pm | #
No me above. I sometimes catch the "smallest web show never watched" when Shiller or Rithholz are on but not recently.
"RC- so what really happened to snowflake? The FBI cash his last chit for him? I went to disneyland and missed his implosion."
you went over my head on that one, you'll have to provide an English interpretation.
Exurban Nation is in a quiet period pending material news. Casey Serin will not fade away quietly. Everything he touches goes bad. Aaron Krowne of M-Implode is begging for $50k in a legal fee defense fund after having paid $50k for Casey's website. Looking from a distance but not getting involved.
Fer crissakes AC, if you're gonna be an associate member of the PPT, ya gotta answer yer damned phone!
No way on the PPT part. We've got a special code. Once I get that text message on my iPhone that means the whole lot of us are going short. Every hedge fund in the the world all at once.
They're going to call it the "Great Blackberry Crash".
heyyy, that Archstone deal is for $15b - not some 500 million one ; and they've lowered the price once already AND reading between the lines both the funding and the setting up of property divestments for a quick buck seem to require a little spit and polish - stretching out all the way to Oct. at that.
This is real stuff by any stretch of the imagination.
I am a bit surprised that in your first days employment, that no one mentioned that fact that many projections are biased from officials in order to enhance their career, bonus or next job.
Over the last 72 hours I assumed that the credit cruch was widely known and that mort. companies have some visibility. [It has been on the cover of Mags for peets sake!] Come on, 8 days!
Supports my point - this is fast and furious and Mgmt is completely unaware of the depth of the hole.
So, everything is fine, right?
First!
And lucky me because I was about to embark on a detailed analysis of LUM and RWT for potential investment when things get REALLY ugly. But now with filing and cc delays, it's a management thing. I don't want to go long this management team.
Geez, insider information aint what it used to be.
probert, you can rarely be first with a post in full sentences.
I have a felling that waves are tsunami are getting really really close to our shores now.
Uh, again, somewhat tell me what (super)Novastar saw today with their fresh eyes? Looks like they must be in another universe than the other shining object in the sky (LUM)
Off topic? Maybe. Bobblehead Cramer just called for the resignation of Poole. Can we demand equal time? I mean come on. Sure Cramer is irritainment writ large but calling for Fed resignations?
On topic. Luminent... since August 3...the mortgage industry...deteriorated significantly and in an unprecedented fashion.
Excuuuuse meeeee. It is Aug 6th and two of the last three days were a weekend. This isn't a freakin' meteor strike. These very things have happened before and are not unprecedented.
Thanks, CR. Was wondering if this was another AHM in the making and sure looks like it. Also wondering how much insider trading was done in the past few days?
You know - Inquiring Minds Want to Know!!
Jim Cramer also called for the immediate appointment of Casey Serin ("a man with vision") to the Fed BoG.
The most recent insider trades were market purchases in late June:
Insider Trading Sumary for Luminent Mortgage Capital Inc. (LUMCQ.PK): Three Months | Form4Oracle
From the LUM 2006 annual report:
Given the recent stress in the subprime market, investors should distinguish our asset management
business model from that of a subprime originator. We do not acquire subprime mortgage loans. We are
not a direct originator of mortgage loans and therefore we are not subject to early payment default claims.
We acquire mortgage loans exclusively from well-capitalized originators who meet our standards for
financial and operational quality. We maintain ample liquidity to manage our business and have largely
match-funded our balance sheet. During the last year, we have substantially reduced our reliance on shortterm
repurchase agreement funding. As such, we experienced no liquidity strains during the recent market
turmoil.
Noncontainment. Q.E.D.
Now, I ask you, if LUM can't see 6 days into their own future,
how is it we are supposed to believe GDP projections, or spillover projections, or forward earnings projections, or anything out of anybody's mouth no matter how "in the know" they are.
Tanta,
I know they are only rumors, but is there any way in which a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac bail out is good?
Ok, they can provide some liquidity, but it looks to me that given the scale of the problem this will just be a drop in the big wide ocea
YouTube -
Here is Jim Cramer pulling a LUM (at least it was 6 months and not 6 days for him).
but it looks to me that given the scale of the problem this will just be a drop in the big wide ocean
Absolutely. This isn't a "bailout," it's an attempt to be seen doing something. Unless I've lost my mind, which I have been in danger of all day for one reason or another, it'll be just like the big "bailout" issue we had back in June with Teh Subprime. The GSEs will pony up enough money to get some headlines, not enough to save any but the thin top slice of the Alt-A market. They'll also get to force through a few changes in their own underwriting guidelines without the CFCs and Indys bitching about it to their congresscritter, because the fact of the limited modified partial bailout thingie means the lenders have to act nice.
At least that's my theory.
The Dawg presumes to translate LUM:
We maintain ample liquidity to manage our business and have largely match-funded our balance sheet.
Our balance sheet is not fully match-funded.
During the last year, we have substantially reduced our reliance on shortterm repurchase agreement funding.
We are still exposed to short term repurchase agreements.
Luminent?
I have to laugh.
History doesn't repeat itself - at best it sometimes rhymes. - Mark Twain
I knew someone who once worked at Luminant (not the same company). Here's an article from 2001.
Once Heartily Jeered Luminant to Sell All Assets
Newly-bankrupt Luminant Worldwide Corp. (Quote) -- the high-tech consulting firm held up for mockery by a writer who posed as a junior project manager at the company's New York City office and scribed a piece about his adventure for The New Yorker magazine -- agreed to sell its assets to rival Lante Corp. (Quote) Monday.
Houston-based Luminant, or what's left of it from restructuring and last week's filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, will receive about $3 million for its client relationships and contracts, intellectual property and software from Chicago's Lante.
In what is perhaps a bit of understatement, Luminant Chief Executive Officer Jim Corey said the high-tech consulting market "has been extremely difficult this year" and noted that business for such services slowed to a crawl after September 11th.
"This event, coupled with our thin cash position and heavy debt load made this asset sale the most prudent step for our creditors, clients, alliance partners and employees," Corey said.
Can history both repeat AND rhyme? Surely it is possible. Where's the New Yorker when we need it?
One year ago last week, Luminant drew jeers from hecklers after a story written by one Rodney Rothman, a former head writer of "Late Show With David Letterman", pegged the firm as a typical high-flying dot-com, replete with on-site massages, yoga and various other perks prevalent in New Economy businesses. Unfortunately for both Luminant and the high-brow literary magazine it appeared in, The New Yorker the story, while it detailed true occurrences and situations over a 17-day period, was rooted in deception; Rothman was not an employee of the firm, although he posed as a junior project manager.
In defense of Mark Twain, there's no way he could have seen this coming. He died before we fell off the gold standard, lol.
Avg Joe,
if LUM can't see 6 days into their own future,how is it we are supposed to believe GDP projections, or spillover projections, or forward earnings projections, or anything out of anybody's mouth no matter how "in the know" they are.
Who the heck told you to "believe" any of that? The very best any of those projections/predictions are are highly educated, well thought out guesses based upon certain trends continuing and others changing. For Example, 2008 GDP projections are all over the place from the depression loons here and elsewhere to a recession this year to 2-3% real growth to Kudlow's we will go up forever and then some!
Literally my first day working on Wall Street 1985 here was the very first lesson I was taught.
What do we know about these projections?...THEY ARE WRONG!
Do your homework, check managements' history etc. but don't take anybody's word for it. The best they are offering is an educated guess. Too much can change and no one can forsee the future. Buffet has made many bad investments in his career, even the very best screw up reasonably often.
wtf?
"SAN FRANCISCO, CA., July 30, 2007/PRNewswire-FirstCall/ Luminent Mortgage Capital, Inc. (NYSE: LUM) announced today that its second quarter dividend payment of $0.32 per share, payable to stockholders on August 8, 2007, is secure and will not be canceled.
In addition, Luminent confirmed that as of July 30, 2007 it is in full compliance with all its financial covenants. Furthermore, Luminent confirmed that as of July 30, 2007 it had ample liquidity to manage its business."
unbelievable
Rob Dawg:
We hate you Cramer
Oh yes we do
We hate you Cramer
And this is true
When you are with us
P-U!
Oh Cramer, we hate you.
We love you Dr. Poole
Oh yes we do
We love you Dr. Poole
And we'll be true.
When Cramer calls you, say
F-U!
Oh, Dr. Poole, we love you.
Youngsters: There's this really old musical called "Bye Bye Birdie" . . .
I believe this is fast moving market?
I just need a nice hurricane to lift my natural gas investments and I can go home for the year.
As for this panic, I don't think there will be more this week- but by October we may see some spectacular stuff.
Someday this war's gonna end...
This volatility is a perfectly designed attack on the retail investor, shaking out longs and shorts with violent swings both ways. I expect a 400pt day tomorrow. Which way, probably down but who knows. It depends on how many shorts were squeezed today.
RC- so what really happened to snowflake? The FBI cash his last chit for him? I went to disneyland and missed his implosion.
He did mirror the dying days of the greatest real estate market of my lifetime;-}
Well, time to start saving my pennies to get 20% down for my 100x rent flophouses that I intend to buy next year.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Allen-
"RC- so what really happened to snowflake? The FBI cash his last chit for him? I went to disneyland and missed his implosion."
you went over my head on that one, you'll have to provide an English interpretation.
With more bloodletting ahead, any thoughts on buying SRPIX?
sorry rc- RC was short for Robert Cote- he chronicled Casey Serin's fall from grace in a free for all blog at exurban nation.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Allen- no problem
you might find this interesting, look at the advance/decline for 8-03 and 8-06.
NYXdata > Home
The raging lunatic monster Don Evans appeared on that liar Larry Kudlows show today and spewed lie after lie after lie.
risk-
This one shows real internal stresses nicely:
NYXdata > Home
Note how things went south from the 24th of July- now we have a ton of shorts to work off.
Someday this war's gonna end...
ForeclosureS.com July 2007 Report: Houses Lost up 27% Over June
News
If I short LUM should I feel bad for slumming?
Motherf*****. One of my hedge fund friends left a message on my answering machine yesterday that they were going to drive up CFC 10% today to blow out a bunch of the shorts and ride it up, and they wanted my help. I didn't get the message until just now. Apparently the only got it up 7% and I was the missing 3%.
I missed out on a guaranteed 10% return today. >:(
Fer crissakes AC, if you're gonna be an associate member of the PPT, ya gotta answer yer damned phone!
The raging lunatic monster Don Evans appeared on that liar Larry Kudlows show today and spewed lie after lie after lie.
Robert Cote | 08.06.07 - 8:02 pm | #
No me above. I sometimes catch the "smallest web show never watched" when Shiller or Rithholz are on but not recently.
"RC- so what really happened to snowflake? The FBI cash his last chit for him? I went to disneyland and missed his implosion."
you went over my head on that one, you'll have to provide an English interpretation.
Exurban Nation is in a quiet period pending material news. Casey Serin will not fade away quietly. Everything he touches goes bad. Aaron Krowne of M-Implode is begging for $50k in a legal fee defense fund after having paid $50k for Casey's website. Looking from a distance but not getting involved.
Fer crissakes AC, if you're gonna be an associate member of the PPT, ya gotta answer yer damned phone!
No way on the PPT part. We've got a special code. Once I get that text message on my iPhone that means the whole lot of us are going short. Every hedge fund in the the world all at once.
They're going to call it the "Great Blackberry Crash".
WSJ: A Delay Call for Key Buyout, Archstone
Archstone is a major component of the DJ real estate index which SRS goes double inverse on.
A Delay Call for Key Buyout, Archstone - WSJ.com
heyyy, that Archstone deal is for $15b - not some 500 million one ; and they've lowered the price once already AND reading between the lines both the funding and the setting up of property divestments for a quick buck seem to require a little spit and polish - stretching out all the way to Oct. at that.
This is real stuff by any stretch of the imagination.
-K
did u notice they said it was the deterioration in market conditions SINCE AUGUST 3 that caused this?
cough, cough don't sue cough, cough
sorry, i think LUM had something in its throat...
and u guessed it, that thing caught in its throat was the chicken bone of the mortgage market: leverage.
btw, why would anyone with experience in the mortgage industry lever way up with warehouse/repo financing? those guys will kill u to save a dime.
warehouse lender: "i only hit you because i love you, baby, come back....i love you!"
mortgage REIT: "well...maybe...he does treat me right most of the time..."
Banker
I am a bit surprised that in your first days employment, that no one mentioned that fact that many projections are biased from officials in order to enhance their career, bonus or next job.
Vader,
My post was not meant to be all inclusive. But in point of fact sandbagging is much more common that heroic assumptions.
Over the last 72 hours I assumed that the credit cruch was widely known and that mort. companies have some visibility. [It has been on the cover of Mags for peets sake!] Come on, 8 days!
Supports my point - this is fast and furious and Mgmt is completely unaware of the depth of the hole.
CEO: Hi Marge got the numbers
Marge: Sure do! Gunna have a Q as expected
CEO: Issue a Press Release, Marg. All is well here!
CEO: How did the Press Release go, Marg?
Marg: Very well, sir.
CEO: Good Mard. Did you ask Peter to pick up my suit?
Marg: Sorry sir some problems at the cleaners, it seems as though company card was not approved.
CEO: Not approved?
Marg: Yes sir we are in hawk for billions and there is no more credit.
CEO: Shit, and I was hoping to waer that suit to the Board Meeting. Oh well.
I am very glad I stayed out of the fun today - wanted to "put" a lot on the table and, had of I done that, I would nave been roasted.