Countrywide Goes Thrifty

Wow. I guess this explains Merril's downgrade. They must have known about this.

Wow, thanks for more info fast, Tanta - for some reason, this is my favorite quote even though I have no idea what it means:

"For many years, Countrywide's liquidity management framework has focused on maintaining a diverse, multi-layered assortment of financing alternatives"

Next are the layoffs.

Let's not forget that until now CFC and IMB have been buyers in the 2ndry market and kept it alive - all that is gone.

By how much CFC biz will decline now - if they do 90% GSE - what adavantage do they have on others ? none. They were big in all types of non conventional loans.

so there will be intersting action today in the market. Will CFC Rise to $25 and fall to $15 on the same day ?

I don't know. covered 1/3 yeasterday kept 2/3.

So if I understand correctly this is the last cash they have ? all other sources have been either used or shut down ?

If I worked for Countrywide, I think I'd be sharpening up my resume.....

"For many years, Countrywide's liquidity management framework has focused on maintaining a diverse, multi-layered assortment of financing alternatives"

Translation: "Then some humorless punk at Merrill Lynch decided to call it "check kiting," so we're down to taking deposits at a flamin' bank like those old-economy dinos at Wells Freaking Fargo. If this keeps up you people will be getting Loan Committee Reports. Are you happy? Huh? Are you happy?"

Ow Tanta! Should not be ROTFL this early without coffee and calisthetics!

It's weird to be amused and scared at the same time..

Way down in the pre-market...

"...we now expect that 90 percent of the loans we originate will be GSE-eligible or will meet our Bank's investment criteria. "

When I first read that, I thought it sounded somewhat impressive, but now I realize they're saying that 10% will neither be eligible for the GSEs nor good enough for them to take a risk on...

It's not so much a move to quality as an acknowledgment of reality.

4 out of 5 applications will still be accepted?

"Furthermore, as a result of lessened liquidity for loans which are not eligible for delivery to the GSEs, Countrywide has materially tightened its underwriting standards for such loans, and, we now expect that 90 percent of the loans we originate will be GSE-eligible or will meet our Bank's investment criteria.

Doesn't Countrywide have a high perentage of Neagatively Amortizing Option ARM loans in their portfolio?

I beleive that they have been recognizing the negative amortization as income from these over the years.

I would venture to say that the market for these loans is not so hot right now.

If they ae forced to mark these loans to market they may be insolvent right now.

There is also a chance that they have been overstating income on these loans. Will they be force to restate prior earnings?

I wouldn't want to be their CPA firm right now.

I guess it was fun for them while it lasted.

A gentleman I talked to yesterday said that Countrywide was shut out of the Commercial Paper market.

His diagnosis of the current situation was that there was a flight from opacity: market participants are refusing to trade in anything that doesn't carry an open market value based on posted prices.

Civilians: back in the old S&L days, before the innovation of just typing some made-up numbers into a computer and getting back "sure, why not?", loans that didn't meet GSE eligibility standards or the bank's own written portfolio investment guidelines had to go to the "Loan Committee" for approval. These were actual officers sitting in actual conference rooms. The results of that decision were documented on this thing called a "Loan Committee Report" that had an officer's signature (in ink) on it. You put the LCR in the loan file where the regulators could see it. (That last part was occasionally unfortunate.)

aw, CFC is a fuddy duddy now? That's no fun.

this is scary. just frightening. I've been a bear but i'm just flat out scared.

Is this like the last line of credit avaiable for CFC ?

CFC has expenses of about $1B per month and have funded $39B in July (down 15% from month before)

so even if they cut orogionation by 70% this means they have one month worth of credit and they must sell those w/o a loss to keep going another month.....

Start looking at loan contract fine print for the words “first born…collateral”.

Countrywide is a very large servicer. Tanta, if you have the time and interest, what might be the practical effects of so large a servicer going into bankruptcy?

Not something I'm hoping for, but am wondering where some forks in the road lead.

How worried should I be that '40 of the World's Largest Banks' have agreed to give these guys $11.5 billion in an unsecured credit facility?

$11.5b here, $11.5b there and pretty soon you need a bigger container.

it looks like that line is in place to "support the liquidity of company's commercial paper program"

As of June 30, 2007, the Company had unsecured credit agreements (revolving credit facilities) with a
group of commercial banks permitting the Company to borrow a maximum total amount of $11.4 billion.
The primary purpose of these credit facilities is to provide liquidity support for the Company’s commercial
paper program.

So it looks like they're "tightening" so that "90 percent of the loans we originate will be GSE-eligible or will meet our Bank's investment criteria."

Does anybody know how that compares to their prior lending practices???

Also:
If Countrywide becomes a bank, then are they not part of the system that the Fed is forced to support????

Yesterday I listened to interviews with old Fed Reserve Board members. They said that the Fed must always look to save banks, but that the investing market is a different matter, only to be approached if it causes "systemic risk".

On the run up the banks were often locked out due to banking regulations... allowing schmucks like Countrywide to flourish... now the SHTF and Countrywide converts to a bank. hmm....

I bought some puts on FED after reading some comments on CR. After reading their 10Q again, I'm glad I did. I'm convinced they're already bankrupt. They just haven't realized the numbers yet. I can't believe they're doing share buybacks.

What stood out to me was they have about $90million in cash and have negative amortization assets of just over $260million. I think all their mortgages are in So Cal. What I believe is going to be the epicenter of the ARM resetting armageddon. I doubt the $260million in neg am is actually worth anything.

I have no doubt they're bankrupt. I just wonder if management will be jailed for the stock purchases. AKA Enron.

I feel bad for those who have savings in FED.

"Sambol concluded. "With these changes, we believe we are well-positioned to "leverage" opportunities presented by a consolidating industry."

Some people never learn isn't "leverage" what got them into this mess?

CFC was down to $17.60 in pre market and now seems like $19.40.

I still can not understand the news. The way I know CFC any kind of news they have hides something that in 24-48 hours would make us realize this was just the first part of something much worse.

Countrywide is a very large servicer. Tanta, if you have the time and interest, what might be the practical effects of so large a servicer going into bankruptcy?

Not something you care to imagine.

They are too big to fail as a servicer. This has been allowed to happen, and it's a huge problem for the mortgage industry. Those of us who have been wringing our hands over the "800 pound gorilla" servicer for about ten years have been laughed at.

CFC services 1 out of every 10 mortgage loans in this country. First, you'd have to find somebody else with the capacity to absorb $1.43 trillion in servicing, and can do that fast and accurately on an "emergency substitute servicer" basis. Uh.

Second, you'd have to break that portfolio into Baby Bell chunks so that it could be absorbed by a bunch of substitute servicers. Uh.

So you'd just look for someone who can "invest" in CFC Servicing Inc. to keep the servicing platform going until we get a plan. Uh.

Wonder which banks are involved. Can they back out? Do they have to loan money to CFC? I would think they would be looking for an escape hatch.

If Countrywide becomes a bank

They are a federal savings bank. Have been one for quite a while. They just didn't limit their lending operations to what the bank could fund, so they were kind of a hybrid depository-mortgage banking operation.

They report to the OTS.

Stiles?

I used to play polo in college with a dude named Stiles, have been thinking a lot about him him recently.

Go Dawgs

Effective Fed Funds below target rate.

Bloomberg.com refer=home

Yal-

Companies don't tap lines of credit such as these unless they really, really need to. It's kind of like giving a heart patient a huge dose of adreneline - a last ditch effort which is often hopeless and carries a large chance of side effects in the case of survival.

Gives them a bit of time, but also signals they are in desparate straights. If they survive, I imagine their cost of funding will go way up.

Maybe Banker can chime in with better insight.

Effective Fed Funds below target.

Good link

- Bloomberg.com

exactly, they're too big to fail as a servicer, but who's going to step in and stop them from failing? Not their lenders.

Wonder which banks are involved. Can they back out? Do they have to loan money to CFC?

All the big money center banks

No

Yes

Moral: don't co-sign a loan if you don't feel like making the payments

Tanta, that line is called a "revolver" because CFC has a gun pointed at the banks head to give them their loan.

Why does that make me think of a certain scene in Blazing Saddles?

As of June 30, 2007, the Company had unsecured credit agreements (revolving credit facilities) with a
group of commercial banks permitting the Company to borrow a maximum total amount of $11.4 billion.
The primary purpose of these credit facilities is to provide liquidity support for the Company’s commercial
paper program.

Maybe I missed it but is there any mention of the terms of the revolver - ie what rate are they getting charged to borrow LIBOR + PRIME/2 squared or what....

I presume they are moving their mortgage operations to the FSB because those loans can be used for Home Loan Bank advances, while loans in the non-depository can't? Gets back to the question I've been asking since last week. If mortgages aren't liquid, why aren't the Home Loan Banks providing the liquidity? That's been there job for more than 70 years.

OT, but this is where the action is.

Yesterday was an important deadline day for requests for fund withdrawals. Question: Do ‘requests for withdrawal’ numbers have to be filed for public record by funds or can those numbers be held close to the chest of fund management? And if those numbers must be publicly stated, how soon must those numbers released? The same day, 48 hours, 1 week, 30 days…?

Not one for conspiracies, but maybe there really is something to be said for the non regulated financial industry being closed up. I mean what a better way for us to go back to central banking. Then we can rebuild, regulate, etc. And the local ass (broker) that worked for the builder, cant make this crap up in the first place....Kudlow had some great banter last night with Shilling et al. Banks are fine, investemnets gone in the financial sector but they creaqted the bed now they must lay in it. Other than that market is contained.

What say ye? I kinda like it. Those of us old school loan committee types saw this coming for years...couldnt compete with it...gave them enough rope...

you've lost me, that's before my time, just like magnetic tapes and "LCRs"

Thank you, Tanta. The servicing piece sounds like it could be a headache if Countrywide were to go under.

Anonymous 8:34, not a polo player.

OT: Dollar has fallen a lot against the yen in the last couple of days...

a "headache"? more like a knife wound in the belly.

CFC now around $18.50 up and down. Yahoo has a one year target of $36. LOL.

Countrywide's CDS up 250bps.

"Furthermore, as a result of lessened liquidity for loans which are not eligible for delivery to the GSEs, Countrywide has materially tightened its underwriting standards for such loans, and, we now expect that 90 percent of the loans we originate will be GSE-eligible or will meet our Bank's investment criteria."

Of course they skipped the caveat that this means 90% of their customer base will no longer be eligible for loans.

Fog a mirror/read between the lines of a CFC press release.

Scared and amused is right. Mostly amused for me though, scared for friends and family.

If I worked for Countrywide, I think I'd be sharpening up my resume.....

If you've been working for cfc , you should be ready to retire... they printed cash for 5 straight years

I think the YEN is the best indication of Hedge funds redemptions requests. Yen has been the life blood of the Hedgies.

stiles,

Good that would mean your Dad is locked up ala enron, et al.

glad to hear it

New operating environments require new terminology. Some modest suggestions:

Capital Detests Opacity
Collateral Damage, Organized
Countrywide Doesn't Operate
Concentrated Disaster Obfuscation

Mix and match the above with the posts since last night to discover the individual muses for Hours of Fun.

I presume they are moving their mortgage operations to the FSB because those loans can be used for Home Loan Bank advances

Bingo!

From the dreaded Merrill downgrade:

"Investors are concerned that the capital markets could reduce exposure to the mortgage sector for an extended period, possibly reducing CFC’s ability to rollover its medium-term notes leading to its recently issued converts being put back at par. Should the secondary markets remain largely closed to CFC, then it
clearly would have longer-term earnings challenges and would potentially need to consider strategic options to finance its operations as most bank. This would lead to a more aggressive move to integrate its lending operations with its bank, in our opinion, thus tapping the FHLB advance system more fully and the federally insured
deposit system. This type of environment would obviously be a stressful scenario for most financial institutions, though we think CFC has the operations in place to better leverage its banking assets."

CFC will not be going BK anytime soon...and you better hope they don't as that would mean some very terrible thinks for the US and world economies.

CFC has about $190bn in liquidity sources before having to tap the Fed Funds market. A tax payer bailout (unfortunately) would be attempted DC before CFC would have to go BK.

Do you Eeyores really want CFC to go BK?!?!?!

I think the YEN is the best indication of Hedge funds redemptions requests.

I think you're right. except I would replace the word 'is' with 'will be'. The current redemption request can be filled over the next 90 days, so where the yen is at the end of September will be a good tell.

Do you Eeyores really want CFC to go BK?!?!?!

Not particularly. On the other hand, do you Piglets really want to negotiate with hostage takers?

Heheh, I have a below market rate home equity line of credit with CFC, I think I will do my part to add to their squeeze by maxing it out! Lets hope they can fund me.

jt, I think most posters recognize that a Countrywide bankruptcy would have a wider, negative impact on the economy and many individuals. So, I don't think many are hoping it will happen.

However, the ramifications of bankruptcy need to be considered. The discussion helps identify what "very terrible things" might occur as well as the advantages and disadvantages of a limited (or not so limited!) bailout.

Oh, snap, JT. Tanta pwned u. Sick burn.

Rusty,

Investing in CFC shorts would be nasty.

Bacon dreamz, you've never seen Blazing Saddles?

Stop at the video store on the way home from work, hon. It's a classic.

We don't need no steenkin' Federal Home Loan Bank.

CFC has about $190bn in liquidity sources before having to tap the Fed Funds market.

A few things....
Where did you get this information?

CFC can access money for loan origination, but that's different from running out of money for operations. They can't tell the providers of liquidity that the money will be used for loans and then use it to pay for their employee salaries.

The problem is lenders, like CFC, can't sell their mortgages and have to eat them. Imagine that. CFC is stuck with the crap they tried to sell to some unsuspecting SOBs. It's kind of like if GM complained about their empoyees having to drive Buicks.

I too heard a CFC employee say last week that they had a 50 billion line to tap (quoting Mozilo) if necessary.

CFC has about $190bn in liquidity sources before having to tap the Fed Funds market. A tax payer bailout (unfortunately) would be attempted DC before CFC would have to go BK.

Do you Eeyores really want CFC to go BK?!?!?!
jt | 08.16.07 - 8:49 am | #

these continous arguments tht something is too big to fail....

is BOGUS !!!!!!

the flip side is there too big to support

Okay, I will go get Blazing Saddles. Sounds like it would go well with chipped beef for dinner?

Sounds like it would go well with chipped beef for dinner?

Oh no. No no no. You must have pork and beans.

alright, that also makes sense. cowboy food. i don't know what chipped beef is anyways, unless it's like corned beef.

Hey, I didn't get a harrumph outta that guy.

I wonder if someone with very deep pockets will swoop in and buy CFC before bankruptcy? Maybe if they could somehow lose the REO portfolio?

I guarantee Warren B. is looking at opportunities, they have piles of cash and a large, safe cash-flow.

It seems ridiculous to be talking about CFC going bankrupt when it (appears) to be doing worse than FED, DSL and all the little banks tied up in Florida real estate. If things are bad enough for CFC to go under, wouldn't dozens and dozens of smaller players be toast?

p.s. "video store"? is that like where you get "magnetic tapes"?

Chipped beef on toast (aka S*** on a Shingle) is more appropriate for Biloxi Blues.

"This market is going down like free beer - we continue to have concerns on the credit side of the balance sheet, with Countrywide tapping an entire credit line to shore up its business,I would say if there had been a day when we're trying to price in worst-case scenario, this might be it." said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.

Cheers!

Hello from the Netherlands,

I never post, but really like to read the postings on this great blog (maybe the best of all).

But since nobody mentions the share uy back for 4B a couple of months ago I feel obliged to mention it. This makes them no less than scamsters in my opinion

CFC STANBIC HOLDINGS LTD (CFC): News & Press Releases - BusinessWeek

lol, should be Dutch renter

dutch renter,

FirstFed, a smaller Alt-A/option ARM lender, is running a buyback right now, they just expanded it.

Does anyone know the banks that are on the hook for this money? I know there were a handful that had gone in on the credit line.

It would be interesting to see who is on the hook potentially.

Bob_in_MA, did you see this?

FED moves in with mother-in-law, money saved:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={FD600BDA-1C55-4DF4-A583-FA0D5367F7D9}&siteid=nbs&symb=

As Desi Arnaz used to say....

"you've got some 'xplainin' to dooooooooo"

The European Commission said today it will investigate the ratings given to bonds backed by subprime US home loans. "The securitised subprime mortgage market would not have grown to the extent that it did without the favourable ratings given by some agencies," one official in Brussels said. Barney Frank, Democrat chairman of the US House financial services committee, thinks the agencies have "not done a good job" and says he will also investigate.

Bush would say the rating agencies have done a heck of a job.

So break this down for a former History major if you don't mind.

Countrywide said they had Scrooge McDuck sized piles of cash last week, more than enough to keep making loans and to pay anyone who needed to be payed. Now they borrow 11.5 billion.

Were they lieing or did things really go that bad that quickly?

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded the senior debt ratings of Countrywide Financial on Thursday and said that it may lower them again to below investment grade. Moody's, a leading rating agency, said it downgraded Countrywide Financial's senior debt ratings to Baa3 from A3. Baa3 is the lowest investment-grade rating. All of Countrywide's ratings remain under review for further downgrade, Moody's noted. "The downgrade of Countrywide's ratings reflects significant diminution in the company's liquidity and debt market access due to the stresses being experienced in a wide array of single-family mortgage markets -- stresses that have caused Countrywide to fully draw its committed back-up bank lines," Philip Kibel, a Moody's analyst, said.

I think, from their June 10Q CFC had 8.1 billion of uninsured 90%+ LTV loans on the books, up from 7.3 billion in March. That sounds like a lot of high risk lending during those 3 months - I wonder if they had intended to sell it and couldn't?

Bush would say the rating agencies have done a heck of a job.

Isn't this the same line he used in describing the FEMA guy in the New Orleans muck up.

I'm a Regular Joe (without an MBA, so excuse the ignorance) with good income, FICO of 750, shopping for mortgage, went with broker (loan will be through Suntrust), and now the Countrywide rep keeps calling and saying, "Please, I want your business. Let me run some more numbers." Would someone please tell me how stupid going with Countrywide for my home loan would be on a scale of 1 to 10? (And provide the reasons why so I can get this guy off my phone?)

Where oh where are the regulators we pay with our huge taxes, bank fees and interest? Not to mention blood, sweat & tears.

Tell me again why the Tan Man and all of his buddies were selling so much CFC stock over the last year?

Oh, yeah, 'retirement planning'. I'm sure that it didn't have anything to do with all the downgrades and 'bankruptcy' talk the last few days. Mere coincidence.

Tanta,

I did see it, but I don't understand why they'd issue a press release about it.I remember when the dot-com implosion was happening. One of the BIG (at the time) search engines was Excite (they almost bought me out.) As their stock was falling like a rock, they issued a new press release seemingly every day about nothing at all. One, seriously, was about how the Excite headquarters was one of the biggest single customers of one particular kind of yuppie soda! That's really true, but I didn't think to save it...

Do the thrift regulators not have any say about something like using cash for a share buy-back during a liquidity crunch? Doesn't it just seem patently absurd?

rcryan,

Sorry, Just got back from throwing up.

Gives them a bit of time, but also signals they are in desparate straights. If they survive, I imagine their cost of funding will go way up.
Maybe Banker can chime in with better insight.

How about I second your analysis. One minor additional thing. In this world, if I were anyone who relied on funding I'd be worried that if I didn't use it I'd lose it, soi I'd draw down on every nickle I could find at this point.

I'm curios about a couple of things.

How strict are the GSE standards? (ie. do they require down payments and low payment to income ratios, do they allow loans over 415K-Jumbo, do they allow neg-am, ARM etc...)

If 90% of future originated loans must meet GSE req's, what percentage of the loans funded over the last 3 years would have been rejected for not meeting those criteria? (ie. how much loan volume will they lose since it seems much of their loan volume over the last few years would not have met GSE standards)

Why is CFC too big to fail? Right now the industry is getting in a liquidity trap. CFC funded 38B of loan last month. Question here is how many previous loans has they been able to securitize? And what is the situation with their warehouse line now (did their lender raise the margin, pull any line?). Asset doesn't really matter if they cannot convert to cash in this environment. Right now we know that they get shut out of the CP market as of yesterday and draw down all their credit line today. The next step will depend on what happen to their warehouse loan and if they need to sell asset to raise money quick.. This is not very different that NEW, AHM, IMH and countless other mortgage lenders went through in the last 5 months becuase of EPD problem and need to raise cash fast. They all get into a situaion where the lender raise their margin and pull warehouse line. Some come through and other don't... Remember CFC expanded their operation (buying loans and funding more loans) since the subprime melt down starting March until July... There is a lot of loans that they need to securitize. They came out and said that they have enough cash for 08.. So will see..

Per bankrate.com, CFC's bank is offering the highest interest rate on $50,000+ savings account. Wouldn't want to deposit much more than that with them. Wink

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