"The Handoff – Manufacuturing to Housing"
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 07/04/2012 - 1:36pm (328 comments)
![Syndicate content](/misc/feed.png "Comments for \""The Handoff – Manufacuturing to Housing"\""){kind=small}
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on one of the Amazon links below first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 21 members and 110 guests online.
Recent Recommendations
"The Handoff – Manufacuturing to Housing", Housing fumbles, and manufacturing recovers it.
Where is everybody? I leave to gas up the car and they aren't here when I get back.
ehp alert: comment at end of thread before last (the pun thread)
Seems like more of a reach-around than a handoff.....
Make that - Manufacturing to Multi-Family Housing...
You thought the reverse repo swap scam was only for emergencies?
Expanded Counterparties - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
I was about to say, I'm prepared for a fumble here...
Josap, pigged from above.
Best wishes, and I can understand. A good friend lives in Tempe, and we get the weather updates from her and follow your weather monsoons or no monsoons as well as dust storms (last summer) and the heat, not to mention the drought. We are in for a heat wave here in Thessaloniki soon. It will go to 100-105 for about a week starting on the weekend. It used to be dry heat 35 yrs ago, but it is now more humid. Not your temperatures, but it is still very uncomfortable for those of us that do not like or have ac.
Economic Depression: every time you think the economy is going to recover, even from very low levels that sit way below the all-time highs, it doesn't.
And housing will be no different. Once again, for a fifth year in a row, the mild seasonal strength enjoyed each Spring is about to give way to the post July 4th price cutting ritual. Not sure why the basic message never gets through: without a recovery in wages, and a deleveraging of household balance sheets, there simply can't be anything other than a slow oscillation around the bottom, in housing. It will go on like this for years. We will have multiple recoveries, occasionally punctuated by pocketed recoveries that are sustainable, say, in real estate near public transportation. Consoling oneself that RE in markets that have seen 60-80% price falls is now recovering is just that, self consolation.
No reason whatsoever to buy a house in the US.
G
Has anyone heard from Nanoo? I emailed her about nova but she hasn't replied. She hasn't posted since Saturday morning. Hopefully she's just on vacation or something...
I knew we had it in us to start buying homes on credit again
Spending my day listening to an Article 9 (Secured Transactions) lecture... hopefully I'll have a lot more to say here in HCN afterwards
Manufacturing is to housing as farming is to strip mining.
Things I'm learning: maybe we should go back to requiring personal collateral - as in, putting up a kid or servant to be turned over as a slave for the creditor in case of default. Oh, wait...
Rob Dawg wrote:
Actually farming is the original strip mining.
I'm not calling a bottom until I hear Sebastian is positive.
US Construction | Spending May 2012 | Residential Building
At least they are sort of kind of a little transparent about who they are sending trillions overseas to. A few months later. Sort of.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
CK I'm wondering if the bad weather last week-end came near NN. She has talked about tree's down in the past so if you know what part of Vermont she lives check last week-end weather.
poic wrote:
Even though he's been bearish lately, capitulation would have him being in utter, TEOTWAKI despair.
DUPLICATE
From Previous Thread:
Historically, residential construction has been a leading indicator for one reason--one--its sensitivity to Fed policy, meaning interest rates and, specifically, what people pay for their mortgages.
Mortgage rates are now at record lows. This is the prime time of the year. Why aren't the Toll brothers selling houses?
The Michigan survey shows house buying intentions down, consumer sentiment down. Meanwhile, disposable personal income has flatlined. PCE is down.
It seems appropriate now to remind everyone here of a very simple fact:
Housing did not lead the current expansion. It lagged. Massively.
It also seems appropriate now to remind everyone of something Paul McCulley said 8 years ago:
mp wrote:
Transfer payments don't buy houses.
Rob Dawg wrote:
'Bama gonna pay my mortgage!
Yeah, that could be. Usually she will say something if she's going to be offline for very long. I think they did get hit with that frontal system.
CR's article, " Residential Investment (new home construction) is now growing nearly 10% year-over-year while the manufacturing cycle is slowing."
This is a "dig in" construction phase. Expantion of Existing.
Bama gonna buy my SRS
//a man can hope
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Vermont Outage Map
Could be.
I just don't see it. Sorry.
In fact, I'd say the odds are between 50/50 and 60/40 that a downturn is already underway.
mp wrote:
Feels like a Downturn, since 2008.
volker not want to be alarmist
but y'all do know we are all screwed
I agree. It's just a technical point I'm making, that's all.
volker the viking wrote:
Story of my life.
I was walking around downtown SF and I'm blown away by the amount of large and small CRE construction going on. In a roughly four block radius around our apartment there's roughly 5 billion worth of projects either started already or slated to start this year.
Housing boom can only grow if income (false or real) is good add lending standards that are completely ignored. Bang you have the mess we are in.
Also, if Europe goes off, that will really suck all the air out of the room.
Drive by comments
Do police officers have rights and why did'nt the CEO do the whistler blowing thingy (only whimps get physically sick over emails?).
volker the viking wrote:
Course, fine thread or pipe?
mp wrote:
China and Germany collapsing at the same times make it 'interesting'.
The business cycle is a myth. There isn't one.
So far, and as it turns out, everyone who claimed decoupling from Europe has been wrong.
mp wrote:
Derivatives (!!!!!!) Bye, Bye
Five dead after German gunman 'took hostages when bailiffs arrived to evict him from his flat' | Mail Online
The 'bailiff's' unions are going to want more hazard pay. Or, you can hire someone to evict them.
Maybe the savvy bankers can carry out their own evictions, without help from the big government they hate so much.
New Particle Found, Consistent With Higgs Boson - WSJ.com
Relative Change of Manufacturing PMI Indexes for Selected Countries/Regions
Fire hazard? Strange never stop them in Texas....
Colorado Wildfires 2012: Fire Department Says Fireworks 'Not Worth The Risk' This 4th Of July (PHOTOS, VIDEO)
Exactly. No decoupling.
poic wrote:
I wonder how this is going to square with the faith-based community?
TJ and The Bear said: "Even though he's been bearish lately, capitulation would have him being in utter, TEOTWAKI despair."
Whose capitulation? Bulls? Bears? About what? The economy, housing, the stock market?
Myself, I'm not doing anything that will result in utter despair, so I really don't understand what you're saying.
Sebastian
KarmaPolice wrote:
I think the String Theorists are safe in their delusion.
If this truly is a cyclical inflection point, you've got about a month in which to confirm it and get your alpha.
Otherwise, you're going to pay for it.
Have a great day.
mp wrote:
For me it's only the end of another (Fed-inspired) cyclic bull in terms of the greater secular bear. But hey, it's always been a depression in my book.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: France to Set Top Marginal Tax Rate at 75%, Permanently Increase Wealth Taxes, Hike Surcharges on Banks and Energy Companies; Further Tax Hikes Next Year; France Poised to Implode
UPDATE 4-Spain opens fraud case on ex-Bankia chief Rato
| Reuters
Happy 4th Of July !!
Later
CK has been noting, volker too, that dozens of bank execs were bailing out over the last several months
then one after another gets caught up in an inquiry
Barclay's the latest
maybe he needed some White House cuff links
the story builds, has legs
the meme is banks are corrupt
end game bitchez
holocaust holiday
Joey Chestnut again crowned champ of Coney hot dog contest | NJ.com
The San Jose, Calif. native ate his way to a sixth straight win at the Fourth of July hot dog eating contest at Coney Island on today, tying his personal best in a sweaty, gag-inducing spectacle.
the picture or the winner looks like
emergency hotdog wrote:
I thought that Rick Perry was the champ?
A Children’s Treasury of Rick Perry Deep-Throating Corndogs
volker the viking wrote:
unprecedented. finally something totally new1
Second and more importantly ... is the transition from manufacturing to housing as a major economic driver.
That doesn't make sense. Unless the # of rentiers are going to be driving the economy. What does housing produce? Debt.
I can see housing as an indicator. But as a driver?
:fiscal cliff:
Rajesh wrote:
To conclude that the Higgs Boson disproves theism you would have to begin with atheism as a premise, so that the broken syllogism would run: God does not exist, the Higgs Boson exists, therefor God does not exist. In colloquial speech, this is known as "chasing your own tail." In electronics it is called "noise."
Oh god. Just make it go away.
BBC News - The view from bankrupt Californian city of Stockton
NASCAR, obesity, and a mayor who owns a ballon shop.
People get the government they deserve™
France headed for depression. Plan accordingly.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Here let me help:
Religion is a fairytale. Just like Greek/Egyptian gods, sea monsters, and Santa Claus.
RockyR wrote:
France has been heading for a depression since the 18th Century.
invest how you see fit, KP.
Excuse me. Nessie lives.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lochnessmonster.jpg
KarmaPolice wrote:
On the authority of an anonymous poster on a blog? Can you write me privately and tell me why you are sure that religion is a fairy tale? Do you have empirical proofs, a strong feeling about it, experimental data? Or just mental data? Come, tell us. Tell me.
I think the separation of church & blog is guaranteed by the Constitution.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
you're that lonely?
That is actually being taught in some Louisiana schools, it somehow proves intelligent design...or some such nonsense. Our tax dollars at work.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Do you believe in the resurrection of the dead and immaculate conception?
If so, don't email me.
you stay the hell out of the Louisiana school curriculums
believing that religion is a fairy tale is just like believing its not. that's the thing about religion.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
If it is all the same to you I would prefer it was just you and not us. He's run out of ways of demanding attention and just looking for new buttons to push.
YouTube - Mel McDaniel - Louisiana Saturday Night
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Texans: Dinosaurs, Humans Walked the Earth at Same Time — Public Education | The Texas Tribune
Quotable:
"Prindle says the results recall a line from comedian Lewis Black. "He did a standup routine a few years back in which he said that a significant proportion of the American people think that the 'The Flintstones' is a documentary," Prindle says. "Turns out he was right. Thirty percent of Texans agree that humans and dinosaurs lived on the earth at the same time."
RockyR wrote:
... and fiat currencies. You either have faith or you don't.
Rob Dawg wrote:
That's a mighty big
Outsider wrote:
yes, obviously. where was the drywall made? lumber doesn't 2x4 itself. paint. toilets. plumbing. a/c. insulation. ducting. wire. flooring. roofing. care to produce any of those yourself? no? maybe because it's to labor intensive? much of that stuff is produced by people right here in the usa.
We are all slugs now!
"Outsider wrote:
Wed, 07/04/2012 - 3:31pm
I think the separation of church & blog is guaranteed by the Constitution."
Blog rules clearly state separation is required at all times except M,W,F 9pm-10pm PST.
KarmaPolice wrote:
As for the resurrection of the dead, please describe for us what it was like to die.
Can you define the Immaculate Conception without consulting wiki?
Yeah, but someone with a job and the ability to pay has to buy the end product. And therein lies the rub.
volker has arrived
I don't anyone wants drywall from China now.
i've heard the tripe here about dinosaurs and people coexisting. I've heard it new England, too. 30 pct of the population has an iq below 85 or so no matter where you go.
I, for one, believe in carbon dating.
Blog rules clearly state separation is required at all times except M,W,F 9pm-10pm PST.
Midnight to 1 a.m. ET works for me.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Do you read that, KP? But I'm willing to listen to you - privately. Let's not hijack the thread.
"RockyR wrote:
Wed, 07/04/2012 - 3:27pm
invest how you see fit, KP."
Some people see the gluten free donut. Others see the hole. A select few see just the gluten.
RockyR wrote:
Are you a smart guy versus the dumb guys?
pavel, I honestly have no idea!
RockyR wrote:
We'll take your word for it, your eminence.
Some people see the gluten free donut. Others see the hole. A select few see just the gluten.
And some see nothing, thanks to the modern miracle of technological features.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
You are the theologian, you tell us. You have built your entire life around this story. Surely you have studied this as oppose to simply listening to someone with a calling.
funny, pavel. TJ got it. surprised you didn't.
hmm...
Forget where you came from, your here, deal with that.
KarmaPolice wrote:
I am not a theologian. Write privately if you wish to continue.
RockyR wrote:
I'm one of the dumb ones.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
As much as the Dawg would like to think that he is the hall monitor, he is not.
Please feel free..
I could describe the Immaclate Conception, but I don't wanna.
Outsider wrote:
and why work when it's so much easier and logical to get snappy and collect food stamps than to bust ass in the sun and earn a pay check. point taken.
And yet France will, mysteriously, be just fine...
if you need proof of God, pavel, you don't have much faith.
i'll leave it at that.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Nooooo......you don't say?
KarmaPolice wrote:
Don't troll this up. Write privately.
RockyR wrote:
Did I say I was looking for proof?
problem with tax increases to pay down deficits is that they are just like spending cuts. austerity if you do, austerity if you don't... or something like that.
see volker's note about being screwed.
lawyerliz wrote:
RockyR wrote:
i bet that you won't.
emergency, I am in no way dissing the construction industry. I just don't think that buying and selling housing makes an economy. People buy homes when they have enough money, as the result of an economy that works. I'm all for the spinoff jobs from the construction industry, and how they do contribute to the economy, but to drive it?
i said I would leave it at that pavel and I meant it.
check your anger.
Dialog is when 2 or more people talk & have a slight chance at least of convincing each other of their posotion. Not possible with Pavel. If you back him into a corner he'll say it's a mystery. It's just the way it is.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Oh no. Please use this forum. How much can one drone on about housing and the "euro-crisis"?
lawyerliz wrote:
Depends upon what your definition of "is" is.
lawyerliz wrote:
Or it's Gods work at hand....
lawyerliz wrote:
Would you please write my posts for a while? You seem to know how I do them anyway.
if you don't like it, KP, I will be MORE than happy to show you the door.
Speaking of anger some guy just walked past me dropping f
s and doing the Hitler salute.
KarmaPolice wrote:
Write.
How much can one drone on about housing and the "euro-crisis"?
Okay, now it's getting personal.
"if you don't like it, KP, I will be MORE than happy to show you the door."
Behind door #2 is a years supply of free gluten bread!!
RockyR wrote:
What would you like to talk about?
housing and the euro crisis.
it's flash fiction
short story at best
I should have checked to see whether that guy had a
t-shirt on.
housing and the euro crisis.
Score! I was going to tell you to say that.
I should have checked to see whether that guy had a
t-shirt on.
Was he hunched over a mobile device?
Seeing a very large Croc too damm close will make you believe dinosaurs still exist.
KarmaPolice wrote:
Convince me that God does not exist. In a private communication.
Ewww... now that's a penance only Bob 'I-didn't-know-what-was-going-on' Diamond deserves..
~splat
Kauai_Kahuna wrote:
They predate the dinosaurs. A very old life form, and very successful.
No, he kept on raising his arm to do the hitler salute. I didn't see a phone in his hand.
RockyR wrote:
Groan.
Oh well....I have to go make a blue Jello salad with Cool Whip and maraschino cherrys.
Toodles!
Housing is mostly consumption unless we start putting it on boats and shipping it to our trading partners.
Tho to the extent that housing investment facilitates worker efficiency it is capital accretion, but for the general case the stock we've built up since the 1960s is perfectly performant in the housing good department (outside of energy efficiency, but we don't have to rebuild to improve that).
Land is a particularly special form of capital. Try living without it! Yet our modern economics is completely ignorant of its importance.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
in a recovered memory session with my psychiatrist I remembered this same conversation with my priest
Apologies for getting caught up in this - but I will not let slurs against faith, even if they are off topic, pass without comment. Anyone who writes such slurs should know that.
Not if they come from people with money coming out of their ass already.
But, yeah, Clinton's tax rates in 2013 + the 2% FICA thing would boof J6P pretty bad.
The $1000/child tax credit is a greatly underappreciated "growth" engine. Growth in rents mainly, but growth nonetheless.
No, he kept on raising his arm to do the hitler salute. I didn't see a phone in his hand.
Well, if you strike up a conversation with him, make sure you tell him what an excellent blog KD runs.
ciao.
LOL. Don't get nutjobs started on their "faith".
YouTube - Gotta Have Faith
RockyR wrote:
I'm pretty sure that at least one poster believes himself to be T. Rex. In truth, he's merely diplodicus, thinking that his stomping around with a small brain is terrifying and meaningful.
So yeah, count me among those believing that dinosaurs and people coexist.
Outsider wrote:
interesting. kind of a catch-22 and a chicken and egg thingy... housing is important. it's labor intensive work. lots of people needed. everybody needs a place to live.
what drives an economy? :beards:?
Comrade Troyski wrote:
You can't tax the job creators ! They're
funding the political whorescreating the jobs.~splat
So I go to yesterday's post to see evidence for this and yesterdays post just asserts this is so.. so an assertion about a prior assertion ??
Where is the pickle ?
as befits a true American - I'm working on the 4th July - putting together my pressie and getting some inspiration about introducing Customer Experience Analytics ( yeah analytics not just graphs, or research notes ) by starting with .. never mind analytics lets talk customer experiences FURST .. and busy mashing bits from this vid
YouTube - Give em the Pickle by Bob Farrell - Customer Service Training Video
Unlike the Duke I won't be posting it.. OTOH, my mash-ups are nevah gonna up to
quality.
"Not if they come from people with money coming out of their ass already."
//dons Nobel prize hat.
If we cut taxes on gluten they'd have more money coming out of their asses.
ah well
what IS the equation f(x1,x2,x3.. xn ) = Y for Housing anyways ? anybody even SEEN a model like that ?
Did everyone check out the whipsaw action in the Spanish 10y today?
time'sup
skk wrote:
What? The icons aren't good enough? You want reflexive continuous computable as well?
skk wrote:
familyblog
Speaking of gluten one is no longer supposed to feed the swans bread at lake Oseola in orlando. Bad for them.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
The EITC has been helpful too. Sometimes people use it to pay debt (or make a lump sum payment to decrease the prinicipal), some use it to pay their property taxes, others to buy clothes for their kids. Low income workers generally have considerable pent up consumption and not much opportunity to unpent.
Okay now some idiot is walking by exploding firecrackers.
poic wrote:
In Taiwan, they like to shoot fireworks at each other.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
At Cocoa village waiting for music & fireworks. Very busy. Had to park far away.
I coulda bin a thelogian!
I coulda been a mid level manager
Rob Dawg wrote:
You know.. instead of farting about for two years developing a fast algo for optimal train travel in India between any a and any b ( not just the 5 major hubs that all the hoity poity travel between ) out of which I didn't earn a single paisa, nor a Rupee, nor even an ANNA .. - I shd have had a bash at this..
yeah yeah coulda, woulda, shoulda,
Outsider wrote:
the erection of buildings is not industry? what age are we in now? sort of post-industrial. we need access to information more than access big angry machines. local economies huh? even if everything you are touching right now as made locally i bet that the raw materials and/or capital to produce it came from far, far away.
lawyerliz wrote:
How about a few Liberal Lies!?
Graph of the Day: Greenland Reflectivity Anomaly, June 2012
"I coulda been a mid level manager"
You coulda rode the short bus too. I've seen setting the bar low, but you take the cake.
There is no "it".
Low income workers generally have most of their disposable income sucked out of their paycheck running the rent-gauntlet that is our modern economy.
I didn't realize I had it so good in the 1980s. Rent was $400/mo in 90024. No car but gas was $1/gallon for people who drove. Health care at one of the finest teaching hospitals paid for by the taxpayers of the great state of California. The rentman couldn't catch me!
In 1991 I moved to a nicer apartment in 90025. $700/mo. Inflation calculator says that should be $1100 today, but actually it's $1700. And even with LA's "rent-control" I'd be paying $1600/mo or so after 20 years. Gas is ~$4/gallon but wages sure as hell haven't gone up 4X since 1990. Health care, LOL.
Then on top of all this we've got the baby boom turning 60 and 70 now. God help the lower quintiles. I don't see how they make it this century. The center-right and beyond are going to gut them and the activist left might as well be a forgotten fable, no longer in living memory.
lawyerliz wrote:
you're making me hungry!
It's OK Mish, the leading bankers and billionaires will all move here. They will be bidding for your house, also.
it's like I'm being pestered on a bus by a handicapped type
not saying you are, what with a;ll your athletic prowess, I'm sure you're the very picture of a modern major general
but you're not real good at this
TJ is Mish!?
well fuck him then
volker the viking wrote:
Reagan riding a dinosaur----
Confirmation that Jesus probably rode one.
http://boingboing.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ronald_reagan_riding_a_velociraptor_by_sharpwriter-d55rsh7.jpg
Very 4th appropriate.
Spain to unveil new austerity steps soon: sources
| Reuters
Digging holes and then filling them up is technically industry, too.
The important thing is wealth accretion. Most of our consumer economy is bullshit consumption, people stuffing their faces for no reason.
I walked into a new Panera yesterday and just walked right TF out. $7 for a
ing lunch that I can make in a toaster oven for $2 or so.
New buildings that don't work towards reducing our $50B/mo trade deficit are wealth consumption. We've already got the consumption thing locked down, we've proven we know how to do that. We've got to figure out how to actually produce (hard, tradable) wealth again.
KarmaPolice wrote:
gadddd - HCNers are good - I've waiting and waiting ala Estrada ( ex-Filipino president ) to have somebody call it the GOD particle so that I can riposte with .. godDAMN particle more like - for its elusive nature and expensive search process... ( besides that was what Higgs - an athiest wanted to call it ) - but this is the closest I can get to a comment to respond to in that vein.
So isn't somebody going to ask me about Filipino President Estrada ?
I doubt it
Comrade Troyski wrote:
One small problem:
Enough fossil fuels to fry us all | Energy Bulletin
BBC News - Ex-France Telecom chief Lombard probed over suicides
Comrade Troyski wrote:
nobody lives in a filled hole.
the hard, tradable, wealth nut thing is a tough nut to crack. especially when the leaders of industry are willing to bankrupt any business here in the us to extract a few dollars for themselves.
Well higgs boson is supposed to be The ground of being, right. Reminds me of M - Morley & ether /aether, but really I haven't kept up.
"Melting of the current Greenland ice sheet would result in a sea-level rise of about 6.5 meters"
Wow. Maui would get a lot smaller. Not to mention coastal CA real estate! My poor Santa Cruz!
Geology is wrong ---shows all that imaginary stuff that happened more than 10k years ago.
what will they do LeGarde for ? dominatrix who accidentally kills a client ( ala CSI - Las Vegas -
otherwise ) -
in the wake of CSK and his high class prostitution ring ( procurement, not just frequenting ) and dropped rape charges, we have this..
Fraud trial for Rodrigo Rato over Bankia collapse - Telegraph
Rodrigo Rato, the former head of the International Monetary Fund, is to face trial for alleged fraud in connection with the spectacular collapse of Spanish lender Bankia.
Still in Toronto visiting w/ old classmates.
Hot, 92, right now.
We ate outside - way to hot for me. But the food was awesome.
Saw Warhorse - stellar production.
Saw the Picasso exibit for the second time - bonus.
Heading home the day after tomorrow.
Last I heard Yerp was still there and alive,
Including all that water where it isn'tsupposed to be.
Tilt-ups are similar wastes of energy.
Don't get me wrong, I love new housing construction, since it is the only thing that can lower if not eliminate ground rents short of weird taxation regimes that I really have yet to figure out on my own.
But housing has to follow jobs. That it led jobs in the previous decade was just an artifact of the Great Mortgage Credit Bubble.
FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
shows rate drops 2000-2003 from 8%+ to ~5%+ got the party started (the 2001-2003 tax cuts also helped), then momentum of the market (and new, improved suicide loans) kept the party going right through 2007.
This was a $7T cash injection right into the middle quintiles, yet NOBODY (outside of Keen) really gets it yet. They kinda do, but the words come out wrong. Eg:
Brad DeLong: Olivier Blanchard and His Team Talk Sense: Economists Squarely in the Bagehot-Minsky-Kindleberger Tradition Watch
and my comment on that post.
Just for you guys, a handy dandy new link to calculate your scrap precious.
Scrap Gold Calculator (Live Gold Price) - GoldCalc.com
Doin' up some crap for teh 'bay.
Too many bills, not enough pay- time to move some merchandise!
Someday this war's gonna end...
this heat is tiring...
but at least I got my tent pitched today in Red Hook....
10' x 10' x 11' ...
**SWEET! **
my last patriotic plug... I was looking for the better vid mash
with way groovier music... oh well
YouTube - July 4th Fireworks seen from the Rooftops of Brooklyn NYC
...
vodka time
The erection of factories to build gold toilets for yachts is industry. The erection of superior housing for the working class is welfare.
Saw Warhorse - stellar production."
really?
I downloaded it and couldn't keep my eyes open
**Spielberg's a miserable hack... **
Hey skk, what about President Estrada?
30 pct of the population has an iq below 85 or so no matter where you go.
I think it's more that 30 percent of the population has IQ's outside of the 85 - 115 range. Roughly 15% above, and 15% below. Plus or minus one SD = 68% of the distribution, i.e., within the normal range.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Comments like this only belittle you, not the object of your derision.
1 Currency
you see Bill Gates on Charlie Rose the other night...
had some interesting things to say about the 'free market'
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
link?
RockyR wrote:
That sure is a funny looking bell curve you got there, boy. Sure hope you can play banjo.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
heyyy.. that's not bad.. did you overlay the fireworks on the skyline then ?
Also. with the blurriness of the buildings on the skyline, it comes across as a Lowry painting to me - or do I mean somebody else - anyway what I call primitive art ..
Nice.
emergency hotdog wrote:
Pretty soon everyone will have a laptop and a phone. Better bomb some cities.
No, I can't watch him suck up to billionaires. Gates is probably more interesting than Dimon, though.
probably true. I just get tired of the bullshit and vent here. The Republicans capturing the fundies in the 1980s has basically destroyed my country, giving them the bodies in Congress and the EV margin to take the WH to push all their destructive policies.
For whatever Japan's faults, their nutball contingent is only 4% in their lower House.
New Komeito Party - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Meanwhile here in November the Christofascists are only 3 states away from the White House. Plus they already have the House and can quite possible retake the Senate. They don't ~quite~ have the SCOTUS, thanks to Kennedy's "western libertarianism" but they're aiming to fix that. We traded two non-insane conservatives in Bush's 2nd term for only 1 non-insane new conservative.
Lawrence v. Texas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
emergency hotdog wrote:
missing
emergency hotdog wrote:
Filled hole? Why, you were lucky!
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
at lastt..
NOT SAFE FOR WORK NSFW NSFW.. Stop right here
so President Estrada was in a restaurant and despite beckoning the waitress repeatedly she ignored him so eventually he complains to the manager :
From the authorized sayings of :
You can't beat a solid gold toilet for hard, tradeable wealth. Unique, stylish... yet also functional, with intrinsic value.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
the hot blonde who sold it to me put her hand on my arm and said that i could take a shit in it. i bought six even though i only needed four.
meh. I certainly don't remember the statistical breakpoints for sigma. it's something I can reference when I need to, which is hardly ever.
my point being that there are 30% of people with low functioning cerebrums everywhere. myself included
Let 'em have the mess. We are going to be sitting here waiting for big change for a long time.
But it will come along, when most of us have given up on it happening.
Meanwhile, we must sit through the European debacle, and then maybe we can concentrate on our messes.
I think CR's turnover to housing is kind of funny, because demographics are going to keep housing down for a long time. Especially big houses.
But whatever, we sit here and fulminate, waiting.
Someday this war's gonna end...
meh. I certainly don't remember the statistical breakpoints for sigma. it's something I can reference when I need to, which is hardly ever.
my point being that there are 30% of people with low functioning cerebrums everywhere. myself included.
You might be an excellent dancer, or off the charts at being patient with children. Or super at delaying gratification.
Im off.
Early evening activities.
ps - Who in their right mind would download a broadway production to view it on a flat screen...most of the dazzel was the acting from the seated area...Warhorse was awesome!
i'm sure of those folks in the country who think Jesus rode a dinosaur are excellent dancers. I am not one of them.
Or the President of the Phillipines.
interesting article. looks like things are going to get a lot warmer whether we like it or not:
NOVA | What Triggers Ice Ages?
it's something I can reference when I need to, which is hardly ever.
Didn't mean to poke at you, Rocky. It's rare that I get a chance to correct someone about statistics. Usually it's the other way around, with a stats guru of mine shaking his head at my ignorance. I have to explain the standard distribution 3-4 times a week, usually to explain to kids with learning problems that their 130 IQ actually means they're really smart.
lawyerliz wrote:
Or a great runner just unfamiliar with the concept of hurdling ( or lane discipline ) - expect to see more of these type of vids as the Olympics loom :
YouTube - Chinese Hurdle Fail...or Maybe Win?
Look in lane 2 . I'm not vouching for this ok ? it could be a spoof.
Still tops.
Watch Videos Online | Jimi Hendrix - Star Spangled Banner | Veoh.com
I notice that the topic of Social Security is suddenly coming up in places where I don't expect to see it, and today the opinion columnist for the LATimes business section wrote about it:
The young don't buy into propaganda of war between generations - latimes.com
Anyone happen to know which pressure group is pushing this new meme modification drive?
poic wrote:
OMFG-
I'm going to have to adjust my thinking about this. Big heavy thing floating around,...but in the lab instantly decaying,...but interacting with different particles to give them mass. Hmmph, but basically only interacting 1/134th at most, and yet if you accelerate that proton, it still retains the mass, no matter how far away from that Higgs,...very strange. Wait, during acceleration it gains mass, so interacts more strongly with the Higgs field, or multiple Higgs fields?,...wow.
sm_landlord wrote:
I used up my quota of free LA Times articles, so what does it say?
demographics are actually going to favor housing. The baby boom fully replaced itself with Gen Y, and on top of that we've got tens of millions of immigrants needing housing.
Peak (native-born) boomer (age 26-35) was 1989, at 42.0M.
This bottomed in 2006 at 33.2M.
Currently we're at 36M.
By 2030 we'll be at 40M, 2050 we'll exceed the boomers, finally.
Not counting all the immigrants in the above, of course.
azurite wrote:
Excerpt:
Now that really looks like an organized meme campaign to me, designed to refute what seems to be common knowledge or at least accepted wisdom.
A 130 IQ and a learning disability?
interesting...
You have any good literature on this subject? Seriously, no hidden attack or ulterior motive - genuine interest.
{Purple Haze unfortunately clipped.}
azurite wrote:
Money quote:
Draw conclusions on your own.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Still, some nice footage there. Thanks.
sm_landlord wrote:
Maybe they've just seen what happens to 401Ks.
azurite wrote:
there's a browser solution for that ( and other solutions ) - what do you want to know - this ?
Not that I support the other side - the Alan Simpson piece of shits.
I've solved global warming: massive mirrors in the desert... or floating on the relatively dark ocean
Just a Krugman-style opinion column defense of Social Security against the right's bullshit attacks.
For every one of these you'll find 100 Koch-funded attacks from the other side.
Funny thing is I tend to agree with the doomers on this. The $2.6T SSTF is going to go pretty quick even if we can get the 1% to cough that money back up this decade and next (something they're not going to go along with w/o a fight).
Solar powered water fountains on barges in the Gulf of Mexico would fight global warning and protect the coast against hurricanes.
we could make it a jobs program.
mp would be proud.
@rajesh -
ie rightwing bullshit
i'm not sure your idea would help global warming, Rajesh. the water cycle being neutral and all... not to mention the extra water vapor adding to greenhouse gas.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
My observation is that most people under 40 have bought into the idea that SS is not going to be there for them, and that's what I think this campaign is really addressing. Maybe it's the AARP pushing it, I don't know.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
there's no SSTF damnit - so the fight is basically we paid taxes for the current oldies on the next lot has to pay taxes for us. that's all there is to it. yer can't dress mutton as lamb - not even with a few trillion of credits.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Competing realities. Most people are not going to be able to save for a 'comfortable' retirement and I think everyone would like a safety net. We [boomers] may have successfully co-opted the next generations into our Ponzi,...because there's no other game around.
edit: that 'we' is the boomer gen, not yours
Americans Support Cutting The Deficit, But Not Cutting Specific Programs | The Big Picture
BBADs.
QED.
Americans don't understand what cutting the deficit will mean right now.
RockyR wrote:
The size of the droplets produced by the fountain matter. If they are correctly sized, they reflect more light incoming light. If the fountain creates bigger droplets, then the droplets mostly prevent heat from leaving which makes the green house effect worse.
We need bright clouds, not dark clouds.
Yes, most people are clueless.
What % could tell you how much is in the trust fund, where that money came from, and where it is now, and what the Greenspan Commission was all about?
As per your link, Cato et al have flooded the zone with bullshit.
Bush came within a filibuster away of dismantling Social Security ("as we know it").
The program itself is fine (for the foreseeable future). Everything else is
ed.
RockyR wrote:
Things were pretty good the last time the deficit was declining.
oh wow, ok. of course, in that heat, some will evaporate. but, I grock your thinking about albedo now.
mirrors and fountains.
I think that's right from the film. But they cut the last PH.
Pennebaker butchered a masterpiece editing "Jimi Plays Berkeley". Criminal...
A 130 IQ and a learning disability?
interesting...
You have any good literature on this subject? Seriously, no hidden attack or ulterior motive - genuine interest.
Hey Rocky,
No problem. It's probably about half the kids I see fit that profile. Very bright, articulate, but it doesn't come out in their academic work. Which means I see a lot of kids with dyslexia, or what the schools like to call (for no reason) specific learning disability. I had a kid in last week with a verbal IG of 150 who couldn't write a decent sentence despite being in the 5th grade. Yikes. There are also kids with atypical neurological issues, say a kid with a high IQ but really, really slow. So we see that A LOT. High verbal and abstract reasoning scores, super low processing speed. You could certainly make an argument that slow processing in fact might augment creative thinking, or deeper thinking. Which is why maybe we should be circumspect when we try to speed them up with meds. There's an excellent book by the Eide couple, name escapes me, but it recently was published about dyslexia.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Pre-Bush era taxes helped that a little bit.
America has always had a bumper crop of sheeples.
yeah, I really need to understand what happened in the 1995-2000 period.
How much of it was just Windows 95 finally displacing the total crap that was DOS and Windows 3?
And what was the Internet's effect?
Mostly though I think this:
FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
giving us a rush of "good times" without having to pay for the downside, which was the eventual loss of our mfg jobs.
All Employees: Goods-Producing Industries (USGOOD) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Rajesh wrote:
If you're spraying seawater, what will happen with the salt?
I still remember Congress asking Greenspan if paying off the national debt would cause problems for the Federal Reserve conducting monetary policy.
Thank goodness, we averted that disaster.
sdtfs wrote:
Some of it will provide condensation nuclei for clouds, the remainder will fall back into the ocean.
Saw Moonrise Kingdom with Mrs. Robj. Highly recommended--even liked Bruce Willis in this one.
My view of the SSTF is it represents the tax cuts the non-FICA payers got, from 1983 or whenever the Greenspan Commission's recommendations became tax law.
The SSTF is simply the $1.5T+ of FICA overpayments 1989-2010, plus another trillion or so of accrued interest.
The "next lot" most certainly does not have to pay this back. If we just raise income taxes on current FICA payers to pay off the SSTF, then the whole Greenspan Commission thing will constitute a $2.5T+ scam on the middle class.
"The 1%" have to pay these trillions back. Technically, the 10% actually, since that's where the FICA cut-off is, but the 1% have benefitted the most from the give-away tax regime we've had lo these 30 years.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Boy, that is the $64 trillion question.
And how much of that positive effect is being undone by spam and advertizing?
What has it done to political awareness and discussion?
How has it changed the way we work, what new businesses has it enabled, which has it killed, etc.
Now that its power is more fully appreciated, how is it being used?
KidPsych wrote:
Maybe. I've got a friend who's intelligent, yet slow processing. I've always said I'd finish any test faster than he would, but he's more likely to get the answers right.
For those who want to note - what's happening to America this 4th July - the search for the Higgs boson is a timely story.. Some will note that I noted that the Tevatron lot ( Americans) did a spoiler on the boson story a couple of days ago - doing a FURST so to speak - what I omitted was -
So tell me they are building one, or even plans for building one, that beats the LHC, in the USA ?
( the USA is not a full member of CERN .. )
But the US based lot are pretty good at doing verbal FURSTS ! - reminds me of England in the 60s and listening to people talk about the 50s and the decay in science.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Nice correction. yup I was off base - except that how do you chase after money from those from 1983 - correctly identifying them - yeah I'm in with yer plan of course.
Rocky, another profile I see a lot are boys especially with high abstract reasoning scores and much lower verbal IQ. Kids who can build a catapult from seeing a picture but can't write well and likely had a lot of trouble reading. You certainly could imagine a school system that was different - okay kids, here are some random parts, build something. They'd do just fine and the kids with the high verbal scores would be labeled learning disabled.
I'm bored. I'M SUPPOSED TO BE LISTENING to an outdoor concert & the people around me have not shut up for one single instant. I am talking about geezers through middle age to young adults to kids. Not the slightest idea that they are supposed to shut up while the music plays.
dats because GDP was growing faster than the deficit, rob, cart and horse and all.
GDP today being propped up by the deficit... And printing. Different times.
lawyerliz wrote:
The musicians must need bigger amps, with volume controls that go to 11.
lawyerliz wrote:
You're channeling my youngest when we went to the Austin Music festival 4 years back. His number 1 set was Arcade Fire and two pretty girls about his age started yacking and yacking and talking to friends on their cellphones. He's very low key but I thought he was going to shove their cell phones down their mouth and make them swallow them. After five minutes, we moved off to a safe distance out of range.
Just sock the 1% with it. They've got the money, and then some.
$2.6T over 20 years is $130B/yr, a bit more than what the Bush rate reductions gave them.
Of course we need much higher taxation across the board. The 2-10% have to kick in some of their surplus to pay for the wars we wanted.
We need to raise taxes on the masses to pay for their future Medicare costs.
We should raise FICA for everyone so we get a better retirement payout, too.
Taxes, taxes, taxes. If I were running things, our tax burden would look like Denmark's.
Denmark Has Developed World's Highest Tax Burden, Reports OECD | Tax Foundation
But we're not going to do that. We're going to "broaden the base" if the Republicans take the whole show this year. If not, who knows.
Just a return to the Clinton tax regime would be a win for most people, since the Bush cuts gave away a lot to the top 5%.
KidPsych - fascinating. Thank you for sharing this. I am going to keep your anecdote for future "use" with someone.
Here's another SS piece that has popped up recently:
Writing Off The Elderly - PaulCraigRoberts.org
It seems that someone as decided that it's time to re-run the debate.
FTA:
what's the masses ? you sound like that 9 9 9 guy - he too wanted taxes on the masses - where do your masses start ?
I read the LHC has 2000+ full-time staff. Seems like a pretty colossal misallocation of working capital, but what do I know.
Physicists make a great bomb 70 years ago and they get a blank check forever I guess.
I'd put the money in PV, eh, and I don't mean Palos Verdes.
My son didn't want to learn anything they had to teach --much of which he needed to learn. Now they are playing loudspeaker music which just sounds like thump thump thump. I'd move someplace better but there is no such place.
Not doing this next year. Not fun.
skk, if you have to ask...
T-shirt: I paid payroll taxes and all I got was this lousy Aircraft Carrier.
aircraft carriers don't taste very good
Comrade Troyski wrote:
ahhhh.. I see where you are coming from.
Sigh.
Perhaps we can live on the carrier & use the runways for gardens
Everyone. Taxes are just too low across the board, and this is feeding the parasites.
O.C. apartment rents up 4.6% in year - Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register
I think my thesis that "all taxes come out of rents" is pretty solid.
I think the 2% FICA cut just went right into higher rents and other COLA rises.
Now, if I were REALLY running things, I'd institute a land value tax first and foremost. But that's not even on the table.
The return to Clinton rates certainly is. In fact, it's the default position now.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
The US superconducting supercollider that was to be build (in Texas, I think) was shut down, and Congress made sure that the holes were filled in so that it could not be restarted.
Edit: Here's the story, courtesy of Wikipedia:
Superconducting Super Collider - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Comrade Troyski wrote:
You could do worse. Prices are climbing at the moment. There will be flipping, I'm sorry to say.
Just got home from the BBQ.
I mentioned the absence of fireworks this year and quite a few folks agreed with me.
Low Key celebration this year? Or is it something deeper?
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Wow.. I really see where you are coming from now..
Help me understand this - since when too low they feed the parasites, how will increasing them mitigate, eliminate that issue ?
sm_landlord wrote:
Maybe "accepted wisdom" since I don't think that the meme re: oldsters intentionally screwing youngsters is accurate. There's been some pushback re: Social Security in particular by Donald Cay Johnston (columnist, if I remembered his name correctly), Dean Baker (whose wife receives Social Security disability benefits, btw) and NOSSCR (National Organization of Social Security Claimants' Representatives). Wouldn't surprise me if NAMI, among others, isn't playing a role as well, because sometimes SSDI, SSI or adult disabled child benefits is the only way some people w/mental illness will be able to survive and/or live a semi-independent life.
There's also a growing number of grandparents who are raising their grandchildren. According to the census 2.4 million families are headed by a grandparent w/one or more grandchildren living with them. Increasing Numbers of Grandparents Raising Grandchildren - Twin Falls Relationship | Examiner.com Sure doesn't seem like older people turning their backs on younger people.
As for the "selfish" baby boomers, so many of the ones I know continue to help their kids financially as much as they can, if their children--or grandchildren--need help. Whether it's the adult children moving back in with them, or needing help w/their mortgage, help dealing with medical debt, whatever.
HomeGnome wrote:
Haven't heard anyone blame the Blue State anti-patriots, probably because I don't travel in Red State circles.
Rajesh wrote:
how so?
I drive past it in Wauxahachie, every time I check on the Aged Ps.
It's odd, Ness.
Usually every Cracker Jack Redneck is lighting off anything they can get their hands on.
This time last year was insane...this year....nothing to speak of really.
My dogs are thankful.
that would be curious if it's coordinated.
I see the media as 90% owned by big money, with marginal people like Krugman kept around for the semblance of legitimacy.
(Plus Krugs himself was much more center-right when he was hired for that matter)
The SSTF is in fact the core of the debate. I'll know I've been screwed if there's still $2T+ in it when it's my time to retire in the 2040s (since I'm Gen X and the SSTF was designed to cover the boomer retirement surge).
$2.6T over 20 years is $130B/yr. That's what this is all about. Who's gonna pay that, if anyone.
The Kochs et al sure as hell aren't if they can help it, and just 1% of 1% of that $2.6T is $260M of funding to bullshit people about it.
azurite wrote:
The fountains pull cool water from the depths and which then mixes with the warm surface water, thus making less heat energy available for the hurricanes as they move through the Gulf. Katrina strengthen to Cat 5 when it moved over a warm loop current.
HomeGnome wrote:
I'm checking in from a Peet's. There are new homes being built and selling in Western Sonoma County. Several big builder restarted subdivisions and are building out one or two at a time. There are also a few custom homes and a few spec built homes. If they are appropriately priced they sell quickly. Not much in the way of local fireworks last night or this morning, a real blessing considering the fire danger.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
My usual question is: what corporate pension plan (excluding the BK proof plans the upper upper management design for themselves) is in better shape?
Comrade Troyski wrote:
You, me, all of us. My bet is that it get inflated away, thus reducing real SS payouts which are indexed to a substitution-based CPI.
Rajesh wrote:
That hot pool that curls around Cuba heats them up fast, once the surface temps heat up, which probably will occur in a couple weeks. NOAA has a graph somewhere of current surface water temps, but I'm not motivated enough to look for it.
Tom Stone wrote:
It's kinda dry here but I doubt the Cracker Jacks care about that.
Everyone that I asked about the fireworks this year agreed.
It's just....odd.
You're not working are you, Tom?
robj wrote:
Come on, Big Shot.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
care to layout that thesis for me ? a quick search in this thread didn't find anything.
Iran says it will destroy U.S. bases within ‘minutes’ if attacked | News | National Post
All I can say is "all taxes come out of rents" again.
ATCOR: All Taxes Come Out of Rents
is all over the place but the basis of this argument.
People think rising home values and even rents are a good thing, but they're not, not when we're running a $1.5T/yr deficit.
The whole system is just on tilt, since 2002 or whenever.
FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
is the basic shape of the problem. We've borrowed $10T against our houses and if the collateral drops more from here much of that $10T is going to go poof, taking out people's savings and pensions.
U.S. munis face $2 trillion in unfunded pension costs
| Reuters
Everything is just insanely out of kilter. I think I know where we need to be but I certainly don't know how to get there from here.
A whole bunch of people are fighting the last war.
Daily Kos: Chained CPI - Killing Social Security Slowly
Back to housing, I mentioned previously that I did not see much for sale in my middle-class nabe.
So today, I drove through the more expensive nabe a few blocks away. For Sale signs everywhere. A quick look at Zillow confirms that asking prices are all well into seven figures.
Maybe the sellers are expecting a wave of rich French people escaping the new tax regime.
robj wrote:
Better plan would be to grab the cells, toss them as far away as possible. Result: they run to retrieve cellphones & w/luck, never return & irritate who knows how many people while chasing their phones, you & family stay in place, get to listen to concert in peace.