Housing: Seriously Dude, Where's my inventory?
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 07/04/2012 - 9:53am (254 comments)
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where's my credit CR for inspiring you in the last thread?
...
I'm off to yacht with Koch
YouTube - Hunt for Red October: David H Koch takes his yacht for a spin in NY harbor
zero credit
Then you hear of neighborhoods where half the houses are owned by investment groups. Were any of those listed on the MLS?
Wobbling:
Romney: Health Care Mandate Is a Tax - The Daily Beast
It's in the new homes that weren't built after 2007.
KarmaPolice wrote:
Oh come on. Topic?
A very good analysis of what is happening, and has happened:
http://www.professorfekete.com/articles/AEFTheGoldProblemRevisited2.pdf
dude, like you wouldn't believe how many homes used to be listed for sale here, and they were all fishing for that person that would pay 40% over market value, and couldn't budge because they took out so many HELOCs, and eventually the 6%'ers got wise and shatcanned the listings, the end.
Re: "Since the NAR released their revisions for salesand inventory last year"
Stop right there: The model is unrealistic, distorted, fabricated, using smooth data to bias reality and hype total billshit for the sake of a consortium of F'ing crooks that want access to money they steal ... then again, maybe all the homes that have been sold for 65% off are gone ...
Rob Dawg wrote:
Nope.
Bought at the court house steps, cheap.
Sold to hedge funds in bulk, cheap.
I think a good number of people believe they are stuck for the duration & are acting accordingly. Buy Home Depot stock.
lawyerliz wrote:
Agree,
Although not sure about the Home Depot stock. Why fix up what is underwater?
Wait for the roof to go or the HVAC to die - then bail.
Rob, And they probably won't be listed for some time - probably years. That is a contributing factor to the decline in inventory.
Why would these investment groups sell when they are making 8%, 10% or more cash-on-cash after expenses? Either rents have to weaken, or prices rise significantly to motivate these cash flow investors.
screen writers guild
if I say Dude, who stole my Libor
and another writes Seriously Dude...
...
guess great minds think alike...
It's good to see nova's guest book has expanded significantly.
RATM wrote:
Would you put the link up please.
I left a note before, but would like to read the others.
The various 'Meskin cartels have scooped up a number of SFH here in 99'erville, in a there goes the neighborhood fashion.
Sold to hedge funds in bulk, cheap.
renter nation
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Astute and brief as usual. Thanks for all you do.
As we often point out rents depend on wages moreso than ROI. We need employment growth numbers and wages to hold rents at these levels.
It's off almost 70% in the east bay according to Greg Fielding and it's off about 35% here. And it's not just the number of homes, it's the number of homes priced too high. " We figured how much we needed to get" and that's the price. Some very nice places have had prices drop to nearly the clearing price and the sellers would likely take a reasonable offer, but it is case by case.
Inventory?
I found it dude!
Chinese-built ghost town in Angola - the first of many to come? - Boing Boing
Stephen Edward Campbell Guest Book: sign their guest book, share your condolences, or read their obituary at Demaine Funeral Home in partnership with the Dignity Memorial network
Rob Dawg wrote:
Almost none. They buy at auction or directly in bulk.
RATM wrote:
Thank you.
Buy low and rent high. That's American!
Robert Diamond = Beau Bumm-el
Update for Santa Barbara: No inventory, even though many homes were for sale that aren't anymore. All sales are typically below $600k (the low end, believe it or not) or above $2mil. Nothing in between, which is where the vast majority of homes are valued.
Friends bought an immaculate 4 br/3 bath, with detached 2 car and full size RV garage, 100% turnkey perfection for $235k last month.
I found a 2005 local newspaper that had it listed @ $595k, and it's been for sale ever since.
The CVBB is more akin to the shat hit the FAN states.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Which is why I advise people not to buy SFR here as income property and give them Josap's #. I don't think anyone has had the sense to call her yet. PDX works better than the Bay Area.
cheerio...
off to the Dog for a frosty Marg!
Please stop harshing my
with these stories.
How's this for a character? Known as "Mad Jack".
Jack Churchill - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Home depot & Lowe's has been very busy here. You intend to keep paying, but you are tired of your icky kitchen or bathroom, so you improve instead of selling. It happened in the 80s too. Although I regularly advise people along those lines.
And let me mention rotted houses again. No stats on that I guess. You would have to have someone moderated knowlegeable Go inside & look for leaks mold & other expensive stuff. Foundations electric.
Not done I suppose.
Jackdawracy wrote:
I am seriously considering a Victorville environs several acres property for "stuff." A place for projects while cash flowing by renting out the house and keeping the freestanding garage with upper apartment and barn.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Which is apparently what happened over at my friends sub/deli shop. Out of 3 spaces, she was the only one occupied and paying rent. It no longer cash flowed (for the landlord), plus he has a $520k loan on a house that is appraised for $185k. He has no paddle, and is trying to salvage something out of the mess.
In case anyone is wondering who wrote that loan... it appears to be one of the farm credit banks.
poic wrote:
Got a place a couple doors down, still vacant after a year or so, last owner claimed BoA gave him 20K when he gave it back to them, yesterday a couple of guys on the roof. When it first went vacant, the swimming pool was cleaned and filled, now it's green. I think I'll trek down there and see what's up.
You can sense how important it is to re-bubble the Big Smokes in California, but the hinterlands don't matter this go round.
In some weird way I see a correlation between some magic stocks and some homes that are in the right markets, i.e., there are homes in Aspen that will most likely defy gravity and continue to climb in value; nonetheless, fewer and fewer buyers will be able to purchase magic assets that have infinite growth potential. This logic probably works on the down-side as well, i.e., if a reasonable home in an ok area is almost free or way below cost, someone will see that as an speculative opportunity with potential future cash flow.
The inventory of magic homes and stocks is not representative of the market or economy, thus hyping magic bubble-pumping stories seems somewhat off-balance and irresponsible:
Yes IBM will probably double its value by 2013 and yes, reindeer fly and the housing recovery is well under way for the 1% who can scoop up the misfortunes of their fellow human beings ...
International Business Machines Stock Chart | IBM Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance
Mazinga wrote:
I do. There's a frenzy on the low end here that concerns me. The mid and high ends are slow.
Tom Stone wrote:
Looking at diesel pusher motor homes, seem to be the same story. Folks must be buying down supporting the older inventory.
That's how we can get back at the bankers, drink ourselves to death!
Tom Stone wrote:
The frenzy here has moved up to the high -mid range. $250K, very nice homes in very nice suburban areas. These homes used to be $400K to $500K.
They want you to drink yourself to death on
bubble-pumping stories seems somewhat off-balance and irresponsible
gambling can be an addiction
-edited-
Doc Holiday wrote:
There are some of those in my area. No way you could reproduce what's there for the asking price. Most are priced $2MM and up...There are a few, a very few, in the $800k-$2MM range.
poic wrote:
All the
you want, while starving to death.
Mazinga wrote:
Several relatives in the area. You have the lay of the land. I would point out that in the rarefied atmosphere it is rare for the good listings actually make it into the public eye. Private placements and pocket listings.
These homes used to be $400K to $500K.
Like those prices were real.
Look you Kalifornians, 600k is not low end, unless the low end all make $100k plus. It may be there is actually no low end.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
With these houses people seem to be looking for some yield, any yield and a degree of safety. I am not comfortable with a gross return of $1600-$1800 a month for a $400k house.
There's a few homes for $100k here, with a dozen or so up to $200k.
Stuff that would be $600k in just an ok area in the City of Angles.
Tom Stone wrote:
That well may be the million dollar question, i.e., how much of a premium will [some] buyers be willing to pay to build new homes, while there is still a massive inventory that seems to (realistically) be going nowhere? I think there is a very wide gap between the low and high end with great excess at both ends -- and in-between that distortion is the reality of a Great Depression.
"Look you Kalifornians, 600k is not low end, unless the low end all make $100k plus. It may be there is actually no low end."
600k is probably mid-range for Fremont, ca. Median house hold income in 2009 for Fremont was a little over 100k.
lawyerliz wrote:
There's a place in escrow here, again. $65k. No well, too small a lot for septic, an "Abandoned" 800 sq ft structure full of mold with floors completely rotted out and lying on the ground. You CAN NOT get permits to repair or to build because you have to meet current code standards. And it's in escrow.
But, but isn't Aryanzona the land of the American (only) Dream?
great game, the crooks get to bring down the market, then buy cheap on taxpayer and federal dollar, then raise rents on people barely making it...
The sale of foreclosures to investment banks, hedge funds etc is criminal....
maybe they should clawback all the bonus's for AIG, FANNIE, FREDDIE and the rest of the criminals to pay for these properties and provide lower rents...
I'm sick of the game...fuck the crooked government, wall street and banks...
poic wrote:
Nuts!
merchants of fear wrote:
2nd basement, "De-leveraging" ... going down
Tom Stone wrote:
A tiny 10% drop in value is hardly unlikely for a conversion to rental. Even 20% cap rates and you still lose for a decade.
Doc Holiday wrote:
Doc, there's a glut of homes for sale in the $1MM-$2MM range in Sonoma County. Very few are truly "Fine Homes", one in five at most.
Tom Stone wrote:
the flipper shows are back on the tube!!!111!!!!
merchants of fear wrote:
Like the values of the stock market are real ... some Treasury yields are almost real ... and useful for valuing over-valued stocks, which have unrealistic yields ...
CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-No Index Chart - Yahoo! Finance
Maybe a neighbor wants to add some land to their parcel and garden.
So people are still willing topay 5xs income & someone will lend to them to do so? ** **** **
YouTube - Max Romeo - Warning Warning / Version
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yes, the good houses magically show up as sales...never listed. Most of the bid wars that we have gotten into involved competing with buyers who happen to be real estate agents. Go figure.
House hunting in Santa Barbara feels like Glengarry Glen Ross.
"Show me the good leads!"
Doc Holiday wrote:
Very few.
The cost to buy and fix to your liking is less.
Good bones and floor plan, then make it your own.
"Eric wrote:
Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:26am
Tom Stone wrote:
There's a frenzy on the low end here that concerns me.
the flipper shows are back on the tube!!!111!!!!"
You saw outsider on TV?
Like the values of the stock market are real ...
we have a doubter here who can see
noted
Rob Dawg wrote:
Pointing that out cost me three deals this year. They all bought through someone else. One commented on my negative attitude. Looks in wallet, looks in mirror, sighs.
"So inventory might still increase a little over the next month or two, but the forecasts for a "surge" in inventory this summer were incorrect"
Gee, I thought there was going to be a tsunami? No "surfs up" for the doomers.
Jackdawracy wrote:
Mostly for the government looking for media time.
And the over 60 midwest white transplants.
Tom Stone wrote:
I believe that, and I also believe that for every nice home [like those] that do exist -- the people proximate to those properties are trapped in a liquidity freeze, and they are probably currently praying that they can keep employed -- or doing what they can do to pay the rent [for the next
yearmonth +/-]...lawyerliz wrote:
Liz, the land value is at most $5k less the cost of removing the hazardous structure.
Underwater Dogs Part II | The Big Picture
(not about real estate).
Will truth telling get you in trouble with the NAR?
"So people are still willing topay 5xs income & someone will lend to them to do so? ** **** **"
There's a very large populations of Indians/Asians in Fremont who can afford very large down payments.
lawyerliz wrote:
If they can originate and dump the loan on someone else plate, why should they care ?
Close the deal, make the commission, "next please !"
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
And taking out the small investors.
I think in areas with large rental investments the rents may drop big time due to increased supply.
I haven't seen it yet, but the game has just started.
lawyerliz wrote:
Nuzflash for LL, summer isn't hot and winter isn't cold.
CA defies the laws of nature, don't it?
Doc Holiday wrote:
I am in a weird market. It's the wine country and the demand for the fine stuff is world wide. About half the high end sales are all cash, and that has been true for decades.
Whiskey wrote:
No. They don't care about small fry, and I am a small frog in a small pond.
poic wrote:
'Merikin Way!
He who blows the most smoke wins in sales today.
Tom Stone wrote:
Yep. I've told several people to short sale rather than rent the property out.
And more clients would be good, but ......
Anak wrote:
10 AM in July, 60 degrees. WTF?
Instead of the "media" having an interest in pumping housing recovery stories, the "media" should be focused on questioning why there has been so little done to investigate corruption and put vast amounts of bankers in prisons, electric chairs, guillotines, against walls or hanging by their throats along with their corrupt families ...
The reason "we" have a country, is because "we" shed "our" blood for freedom -- so why are "we" in a position today to help pump up another round of bullshit recovery stupidity and help the bankers fuck us all over again and again...
Tom Stone wrote:
Puts head on pillow and sleeps righteously.
Anyway, this is precisely why we haven't really fixed the market. There still hasn't been a capitulation moment to cleanse the old ideas that failed so spectacularly so very recently.
sdtfs wrote:
It's 80 in Phx.
josap wrote:
But. I am in the game for the long term. And I am old enough to know that if I avoid knowingly doing bad deals and I am persistent it will pay off (Soon would be nice).
My principal to keep honest & still make money is to tell them stuff they don't want to hear once or twice (on transactional stuff) and then shut up. If it goes bad I say I told you so. I am neither theirmother nor their priestess.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Unconventional Oil is NOT a Game Changer | Energy
Principle.
the "media" should be focused on...
lawyerliz wrote:
Once or twice is all it takes. Most agents talk PITI and treat all of them as though they were fixed costs. I talk about PITIMM (Management and Maintenance) and explain how the costs can vary. They go elsewhere.
lawyerliz wrote:
"I am neither their mother nor their priestess."
"Morality, like art, means drawing a line someplace."
Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900)
"Hi gov't, is that inventory in your pants or are you just happy to see me?"
so why are "we" in a position today to help pump up another round of bullshit recovery stupidity and help the bankers fuck us all over again and again...
listen we hear you... we'll take another 5% off the price to make it up to ya
lawyerliz wrote:
That's what we're doing. Now that the bathrooms are done, we'll probably renovate the kitchen next year (granite counter, new cabinet doors or refacing).
Well, they never listen to me. You are too con vincing.
lawyerliz wrote:
She's right. $500k is low end. About 1/4 mile from me, $655k will buy you an 1800 sq ft SFR on a 5000 sq ft lot right next to the railroad tracks.
" is that (hidden) inventory in your pants or are you just happy to see me?""
adornosghost wrote:
Pretty much everything has become disconnected and warped as to real value. Casino rules apply.
Rickkk wrote:
"Yes to both if you are a hedge fund. Stick your hand down our pants if you want hidden inventory really cheap. Don't worry, we won't tell."
What's a $666k SFH in the Big Smokes of the Golden State worth if we don't get a winter again?
This is the go-to guy to pray for:
Ullr- Really the God of Snow? – Brittany's Blog
lawyerliz wrote:
Thanks, I think. Those years managing property in oakland may have had an effect.
Jackdawracy wrote:
A bunch after The Big One. Beach front is expensive.
merchants of fear wrote:
Yah, well, a few moments of passion ... it makes me feel like an American:
Hope ya'll have a happy 4th, I have a heat wave here at 62 F and need to soak up the sun:
YouTube - Sheryl Crow " Soak Up The Sun "
And by the way, if you need inventory come here and help us out:
We have shitloads of homes for sale and nothing is moving, except the homes on the hill, which are higher priced:
LOL.. one F'ing view on youtube: YouTube - Bell Hill Acreage
Actually, this is about right we have about 1400 homes for sale here and maybe 10 have sold in the last 6 months ... great recovery here...
Tom Stone wrote:
Leaves a stain.
Feckless Ness wrote:
Be nice or I'll send you a listing showing what you can buy here for $650k. Still Cali and as nice a climate.
You can't make a Malibu out of Azusa's here.
lawyerliz said: "I think a good number of people believe they are stuck for the duration & are acting accordingly."
Usually we discuss housing in terms of it being a pure dollars-and-cents investment. We never seem to discuss housing from a "human" standpoint, as a place to live. That's a powerful aspect of the housing market that isn't given enough weight, IMO.
My wife and I, as well as our boomer and retiring-boomer friends/co-workers, aren't stuck where we are. We are where we want to be. We don't want to sell our homes, even if prices improve. We maintain and upgrade our homes for our own comfort and convenience, not because we want them to look good for potential buyers.
"Home prices only go up" has been de-bunked, but "I'll always need a place to live" remains true and always will. A lot of people would rather own than rent, for reasons beyond and more important to them than cost.
Sebastian
Doc Holiday wrote:
Recovery. Rest before sales.
but the game has just started
Elvis wrote:
Lines in the face and a first rate "Death Stare".
If it is that horrible, I say I won't represent you. Go somewhere else. Happens once every 5 or 10 years. Happened last fall.
buyer came back & is closing a nicer cheaper hose at a lower rate.
Sebastian wrote:
Yes, that is the post-price collapse, regret mantra. "Dammit I love it here."
We never seem to discuss housing from a "human" standpoint, as a place to live.
Word
Sebastian wrote:
And those are valid reasons. Failing to take a realistic view of what you can afford is the problem.
Good morning!
Whole neighborhood just smells like melting asphalt.
Jackdawracy wrote:
But you can make an Atlantis out of Malibu.
Eric wrote:
Have you changed your underwear lately?
Sebastian wrote:
Very true.
Boomers are staying in or moving to their last homes. Living in the places they want to be with a life style they can afford in retirement. However they may be the last generation to have the ability to do so in large numbers.
Student debt will stop home buying.
Lack of stable employment will stop home buying.
Lower wages will stop home buying, or lead to a lower standard of housing.
There has been a shift, not a blip. A very long term, multi-generational shift.
robj wrote:
"Home depot & Lowe's has been very busy here. "
Never accept or sign-off on anything from Lowe's unless you look it over carefully first. Someone took a hammer to the fancy convection oven/microwave they delivered. I asked the drivers to take the damaged product back, they refused. I spent the next month threatening the manager of Lowes with Internet spam images directed to other Lowes managers across North America, showing the crap he delivered. The microwave door was not even attached. Although I paid Lowes, they said they were not responsible for the severe damage.
They count on people being too busy or tired to fight back. Ignore their B.S. Long story short, I got a replacement. It's worth it to fight back, otherwise you are screwed.
merchants of fear wrote:
Au contraire Merchant. At least in Chinese, "good price" literally is always perceived to be from the seller's pov. Therefore high.
China is a nation of merchants, after all.
josap wrote:
They will find a way to extend credit to the next generation, kind of like share holders in a corp.
Elvis wrote:
I go commando.
"Malibu: A Way Of Life"
Scene on the rear echelon of vehicles there...
Anak wrote:
I thought it was a nation of potential railroad workers.
Heavy thunderstorm. Down to upper 70s I'd guess. Sitting on the back porch.
We are improving 'cause we want to. Doing stuff we always wanted to. Don't want to move, but it would be nice to get the money back. Of course I have share bathroom colors to the dismay of all you beigies.
Eric wrote:
Hu doesn't. He wears underwear made out of US dollars. He has so many he doesn't know what else to do with them.
Tom Stone wrote:
Tom, have you had any NLP training?
Beiges, we don't got to show you no 'steeenken beiges
Rickkk wrote:
Appliances aren't generally from the store's stock, but directly from a warehouse. Ours come from out of LA,
Well, how's the verdict on Bob Diamond's iMaginot Line defense, did it pass muster?
I stand corrected.
Eric wrote:
That's a improvement from the aftermath of Saint Partrick's Day
Elvis wrote:
Peasants aspiring to bricklayers to merchants. To savvy, finally.
You know, not so different from our ancestors.
Feckless Ness wrote:
No, but I have heard it works well. I don't want bad deals.
Real Estate Market Report: Slow and Steady Is Winning -- Daily Intel
Tom Stone wrote:
Intriguing answer.
Happy 4th of July to all...
I have to void comments in a post about bankers reeking havoc on the little people....
Peasants aspiring to bricklayers to merchants. To savvy financial to outsourced layers to peasants perspiring
Feckless Ness wrote:
"She's right. $500k is low end. About 1/4 mile from me, $655k will buy you an 1800 sq ft SFR on a 5000 sq ft lot right next to the railroad tracks. Be nice or I'll send you a listing showing what you can buy here for $650k. Still Cali and as nice a climate."
My spread is about $550K , 4,000 sq ft finished, French Bungalow, pie-shaped builders lot, backs on to a green-belt. Close to farms, farmers markets / live theatre / universities / high-tech companies, and minutes from a ski hill. I'm licensed as a B&B, and hope to clear a 4-5% return once operational, before I run out of working capital to bring things up to code. I'm glad I took my Dad's advice and bought a bungalow, the price has doubled since I bought it. No bubbles up here yet.
Yes, you nailed it. I'm toasted.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
I think that we should celebrate all the draft dodgers out there in the spirit of democracy:
Mitt Romney, Dick Cheney, Ted Nugent, Rush Limpballs, etc....
About 77 degees or less.
Tom Stone wrote:
I'm taking it now from a dear friend who's a master trainer and practitioner. Her husband's been a CRE broker for 30 years - he's also a master practitioner. Great guy, very ethical - you'd like him. Retired sheriff's deputy. Anyway, he outperforms most of his RE colleagues, and he credits NLP.
Rickkk wrote:
Discount rate for HCNers?
Nlp? And I confess I've never been sure what a bungalow is.
Was in a gaggle of 50 year olds when we were in Catalina, and over the fire, I said "We really grew up/lived in the best of all times, no wars for us to be involved in as adults, half of the world had neutered itself vis a vis communism, etc."
Everybody nodded in approval...
Naturally.
The news about Nova was very sad.
To Nova,
. You will be missed.
Jackdawracy wrote:
The Good Earth - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
And you thought that Scientologists were spooky:
CONFIRMED: Romney Family Had Ann Romney's Atheist Father Posthumously Baptized Into The Mormon Church - Business Insider
69°. The arborists cleared/thinned the pines and olive trees yesterday. Time to plant some perennials and poison some crabgrass.
I think it's Filipino.
I get no kick from shoving abstract notions and symbols back and forth across cyberspace. Physical is different.
YouTube - The Making of Mr Peanut
Have a great 4th, all.
lawyerliz wrote:
Search results for "French bungalow" were somewhat arbitrary. Here are California bungalows:
french bungalow - Google Search
(ignore the link name)
Adios Hominems, be safe but not necessarily sane.
Anak wrote:
Small market. Reputation is critical.
josap said: "Student debt will stop home buying.
Lack of stable employment will stop home buying.
Lower wages will stop home buying, or lead to a lower standard of housing.
There has been a shift, not a blip. A very long term, multi-generational shift."
Well, this is one of those rhetorical arguments (I sometimes refer to) that sound logical, even bullet-proof, but don't have much to back them up, respectfully.
For example, student debt, lack of stable employment and lower wages weren't the reasons widely given for the housing bust. Those arguments were things like home prices that were unaffordable (priced too high), NINJA loans, over-building beyond the demands of household creation, and the get-rich-quick illusion of rising home prices forever.
Those factors have been and are being wrung out of the system now. Prices have dropped dramatically, loan standards have tightened, new homes are being built at a sharply lower pace, and nobody believes they're going to get rich in real estate.
The housing market has downsized, if you will, to a level more appropriate to the economic conditions.
IMO.
Sebastian
Time to run, later.
I can smell RAIN!!!!!
Would love to have a normal monsoon season.
Feels like Arizona here 100+ no rain for weeks.
It seems appropriate now to remind everyone here of a very simple fact:
Housing did not lead the current expansion. It lagged. Massively.
It also seems appropriate now to remind everyone of something Paul McCulley said 8 years ago:
Have a great day.
Those are houses. What makes them bungalows? A hipped roof?
Sebastian wrote:
The old factors are pretty much gone.
The new factors will determine the future.
Stockton Bankruptcy The Result Of 15-Year Spending Binge
07/04/2012
46 and foggy
lawyerliz wrote:
The typical CA bungalow has a front porch, columns, lap siding, double-hung windows, and characteristic wood trim around doors, windows, and interior built-ins.
Edit: also, wood floors, often a brick or stone fireplace, and a raised foundation.
No let up in gloom for Europe’s big economies - The Globe and Mail
Jul. 04 2012, 11:12 AM EDT
"All of Europe’s biggest economies are in recession or heading there and there is little sign things will improve soon, surveys showed on Wednesday, backing a growing view the region’s major central banks are poised to ease policy this week.
Business surveys covering thousands of companies suggested the euro zone economy contracted again between April and June, and that Britain’s mild recession extended into a third straight quarter....
The latest round of gloomy data will solidify expectations the Bank of England will start another round of quantitative easing (QE) asset purchases when it meets on Thursday.
“The sharp deterioration in June’s U.K. CIPS services survey seals the deal for more QE tomorrow,” said Vicky Redwood, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics. “If we are right in thinking that the surveys have underestimated the impact of June’s extra bank holiday, the economy is actually probably still in recession.”
Faced with a struggling economy, the BoE is expected to flood markets with another 50-billion pounds of cash this week, on top of the 325-billion pounds it has already pumped in, according to a Reuters poll taken last week.
News from Asian PMIs on Wednesday was fairly mediocre too. China’s developing service sector grew at its slowest pace in 10 months in June, hit by new order growth pushing the PMI down by over two points to 52.3 from 54.7 in May."
No let up in gloom for Europe's big economies
| Reuters
B of E flooding cash where? Banks? Creating more dead electrons? Gosh, that has been shown to really work ----not!
French Bungalow. Tuscan Villa. English Muffin.
josap wrote:
Texas Farmers Watered Crops Knowing They Wouldn't Grow — Water Supply | The Texas Tribune
english muffin - Google Search
adornosghost wrote:
If you don't do the work of expecting a crop, the insurance does not cover crop failure.
burnside wrote:
Lol. California Rambler.
adornosghost wrote:
Historic drought causes big drop in Texas portion of Ogallala aquifer
josap wrote:
Yep, Kafka would be blushing.
adornosghost wrote:
Nothing to do with overdrafting or poor management. Nope.
I don't think they even have water meters on farm wells here.
Lots of empty houses in my neighborhood but no inventory for sale, at least according to redfin. In fact, the house next door has now been vacant for 18 months. They tried to short sell it but nothing closed as of now.
This is a lower end, outer SF bay area track built in the 1950s. Given the ones that have closed this year, the bottom was maybe two years ago. Maybe half the peak but up 10% from the bottom. They're probably selling for ~200+X monthly rent.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Fossil water, fossil topsoil, all we be gone soon as agriculture continues its biocide and ectocide of anything it touches,.
Sermon # 1547:
Where is my F'ing Inventory Dude?
I'm so very, very F'ing sorry to not have made the connection between panning for
and data mine stories, used to help pump up the gold mine news. I do see the housing bubble like a Gold Rush, whose day is done, yet the con artists and pumpers from the bubble days still hope to lure people to places where they too can feel lucky and enter into a time of prosperity -- no it's not too late to buy into any bubble, in fact, being late is even more logical, because most of the suckers have been wiped out and your odds of hitting the big time are better than ever! News stories are nothing more or less than gold panning, i.e., looking for a few traces of a trend and then stringing together the notion that a trend is in place; that helps set-up the on-going stories about manufactured trends.
Each pan of gold in the river is a data-set, and every flake that looks like gold is part of the unfolding story that gathers momentum, making the con-job easier to swallow.
The reality here is to look at your own data set, versus the data set that is being extrapolated to fit a story being told bet someone else; your data set is your experience at the casino, your experience with the river and your pan; if your story seems to match the stories being hyped in the media, your a winner -- if your plate is empty, your obviously just one of many suckers that fell for the bullshit.
Well, maybe the sun will come out here soon, but it struck me that in my area, we have zero good news on a recovery, so it makes me wonder why the gold rush is always happening somewhere else? I guess it just makes a good story for someone?
California Gold Rush - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Because the gold in the California gravel beds was so richly concentrated, the early forty-niners simply panned for gold in California's rivers and streams, a form of placer mining.[70] However, panning cannot take place on a large scale, and industrious miners and groups of miners graduated to placer mining "cradles" and "rockers" or "long-toms"[71] to process larger volumes of gravel.
"The old American Dream . . . was the dream of the Puritans, of Benjamin Franklin's "Poor Richard" . . . of men and women content to accumulate their modest fortunes a little at a time, year by year by year. The new dream was the dream of instant wealth, won in a twinkling by audacity and good luck. [This] golden dream . . . became a prominent part of the American psyche only after Sutter's Mill.
"When we were doing the Trio album, I asked Linda and Emmy what it meant, and they didn't know. So we called Neil Young, and he didn't know. We asked him, flat out, what it meant, and he said, 'Hell, I don't know. I just wrote it. It just depends on what I was taking at the time. I guess every verse has something different I'd taken.' "
Also see: YouTube - Neil Young & Crazy Horse: Clementine [Official Video]
The words are those of a bereaved lover singing about his darling, the daughter of a miner in the 1849 California Gold Rush. He loses her in a drowning accident, though he consoles himself towards the end of the song with Clementine's "little sister".
Historically, residential construction has been a leading indicator for one reason--one--its sensitivity to Fed policy, meaning interest rates and, specifically, what people pay for their mortgages.
Mortgage rates are now at record lows. This is the prime time of the year. Why aren't the Toll brothers selling houses?
The Michigan survey shows house buying intentions down, consumer sentiment down. Meanwhile, disposable personal income has flatlined. PCE is down.
Sounds like a conundrum.
adornosghost wrote:
Texas should be a good place to grow Palmer amaranth and pigweed. All Roundup resistant and ready!
KarmaPolice wrote:
Borlaug and Haber sealed our fate.
HABER & BOSCH - Haber-Bosch process
mp wrote:
We're on "Mysterious Conundrum Version 3.0" at this point. Soon, I expect an upgrade to version 4.0.
The more the government fiddles with the economy, the more mysterious and "conundrummy" things seem to get.
adornosghost wrote:
Monoculture ag and wiping out the interstitial micro-ecologies is going to bite us in the ass someday.
sm_landlord wrote:
Group of elite's seeing who will be the last one, in a global game of musical chairs.
Rob Dawg wrote:
It is happening right now.
Odd.
I hear no fireworks.
In years past; they'd be going off all day.
HomeGnome wrote:
Probably got outsourced offshore. It works for Mittens!
Mystery Bermuda-based company and other undisclosed Romney assets hint at larger wealth - The Washington Post
HomeGnome wrote:
Turn up your hearing aid.
Antipodes wrote:
What?
HomeGnome wrote:
TURN UP YOUR HEARING AID.
Antipodes wrote:
Thank you, sonny.
adornosghost wrote:
Not good news. Where are you seeing it? Don't get me wrong. It is coming and it will be bad and we can only hope the first warning shots are in time to change our ways. That said I've not seen it yet.
adornosghost wrote:
"We don't grow food, we grow crap"
~ Farmer - King Corn.
Well, my hearing aid is on "11" and I still don't hear any fireworks.
It's raining.
When I was younger it always rained for the first monsoon rain on the 4th of July.
Our neighbors and we have been outside - getting wet. Desert people love to get wet from the water falling from the sky.
HomeGnome wrote:
Be careful: someone might drop a pin and blow out what remains of your hearing.
josap wrote:
NWS Jackson, Mississippi - Lightning Awareness
I don't hear any fireworks, either.
josap wrote:
Now you have those damn misters dripping and spitting. It isn't even a dry heat anymore.
Antipodes wrote:
Calculated Risk:
economics and financegreyhound and horse racing blog with a focus onhousing marketmicro market speculation.... This decline in active inventory remains a huge story (for a select few )
Tom Stone wrote:
A friend of mine thought the same thing, except he thought it about 5 years ago.
"Job losses are mounting as a result of falling demand, as companies seek to reduce costs and prepare for the possibility that worse is to come," added Williamson.
--Reuters
Political and social consequences. But I think there are even more serious focii -war and environmental stress.
Antipodes wrote:
10 January 1920 or do you have a more definitive date? Do the natives have a different view?
picosec wrote:
Ouch!!
Time to go see friends for the holiday.
L8er
HomeGnome wrote:
YouTube - Kiss - I Love It Loud
Chris
pavel.chichikov quoted:
"The Economic Costs of Fear" by J. Bradford DeLong | Project Syndicate
Tom Stone wrote:
I have a friend (wow, that's TWO friends) who is buying a 3/2 SFH in Davis CA. Nice place but I think she seriously overpaid. Asking was $460k, I don't know what she's paying but she bought very quickly.
Zillow has it at $312k.
Might be another instance of prices being set at the margin.
Rob Dawg wrote:
06 February is Waitangi Day. Maori have a different view of the Treaty of Waitangi than the European settlers.
Waitangi Day - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
josap wrote:
I was sort of surprised that he was able to short sale an investment 4-plex. Didn't lose much more than his down payment, but that still hurt.
He has another 4-plex in Tucson that is cash flowing but has lost a lot of its value.
I beginning to understand the problem:
Fireworks Fail: the ultimate video compilation - Boing Boing
sm_landlord wrote:
Reports of gift card payments feed growing accusations of vote-buying in Mexico’s election - The Washington Post
Refreshingly out in the open manipulation of votes.
Max Keiser Goes BALLISTIC on Barclays/Libor | The Big Picture
Max Keiser dares to speak truth to talking head media whores (around 7 m mark).
Its time to go all Arnaud Amalric on those bankster sociopaths.
Rush Limbaugh: 'When women got the right to vote is when it all went downhill' - Orlando liberal | Examiner.com
Here, hold my beer.
KarmaPolice wrote:
Pill Boy is a hoot!
If MSLSD had Rush as a special guest I would watch that!
Tom Stone wrote:
PDX...where the young go to retire.
Many homes in PDX are loaned by people scraping by on the droppings and scraps of trustafarians and bobos.
yuan wrote:
It's around 12:00 where he blows up. Classic.
adornosghost:
Rob Dawg wrote:
Monoculture ag and wiping out the interstitial micro-ecologies is going to bite us in the ass someday.
It is happening right now.
This month's Atlantic mag. has a great story about the 'broken heartland' that revolves around the drawdown/disappearance of the Oglala water aquifer, and how the states on the range are abandoning ag or changing their habits. A upbeat, but doomer article involving face-face interactions with the residents/farmers.
The Great Plains will be the great plains again, where the deer and buffalo play.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
And that will sequester a huge amount of carbon, as perennial grasses take over, and ecosystems adjust to the ecocide of its agricultural past, and billions of pounds of high quality protein will be wandering around again.
adornosghost:
and billions of pounds of high quality protein will be wandering around again.
Have they figured out how to rid buffalo of brucellosis yet?
I won't eat buffalo until I'm SURE that the problem is more than 'contained'.
adornosghost wrote:
I look forward to when technology makes fences obsolete.
Land of the Free & Home of the Brave:
Is American Medicine a War Crime | Veterans Today
JimPortlandOR wrote:
I eat buffalo regularly (even jerky)---
And I'm normal, can't you tell?
Bernanke – My Goal is to Wreck Social Security
http://goo.gl/pJUJr
einhorn takes third
Esfandiari Wins Record $18.3 Million in World Series of Poker - Bloomberg
The regattas will continue until morale improves.
And I'm normal, can't you tell?
normal, average, whatever. Their is no normal anymore, especially at HCN
I'm sure Mittster thinks he's normal, or Jamie Dimon, but we both know that they are freaks.
adornosghost wrote:
Hey ... where's my gift card? I'll vote in Mexico's election.
Ben Bernanke Is Bankrupting The Social Security Trust Fund - Business Insider
Anybody can be normal but where's the fun in that?
We can expect this and MORE if the Banksters continue the destruction of The United States social fabric. I do not condone it just can see it taking place. Sad that it will just be news articles to read, the guilty will get away scott free as always.
'You want my home, it will cost you your life'
Five dead after German gunman 'took hostages when bailiffs arrived to evict him from his flat' | Mail Online
JimPortlandOR wrote:
yeah, and where you live will become an eden. mainly because it is perfect. perfectly sustainable. you provide all of your own food locally, yes? all of your fuel, power, etc..., is local, yes? you get a lot of rain. big deal. it will never be swamped by well armed, well trained, hungry people who are there to take your shit while the deer and buffalo play on the plains. sure, the great plains will be people-free great plains again and the himalayas will erode to foothills. is there an etf for that?
Church vs beer: using Twitter to map regional differences in US culture | News | guardian.co.uk
I'm in a more
county but prefer 
km4:
Church vs beer: using Twitter to map regional differences in US culture | News | guardian.co.uk
I'm in a more (beer) county but prefer (wine).
I wonder how they rated references to church key?
My county is deep red, no surprise there.
Best wishes, and I can understand. A good friend lives in Tempe, and we get the weather updates from her and follow your weather monsoons or no monsoons as well as dust storms (last summer) and the heat, not to mention the drought. We are in for a heat wave here in Thessaloniki soon. It will go to 100-105 for about a week starting on the weekend. It used to be dry heat 35 yrs ago, but it is now more humid. Not your temperatures, but it is still very uncomfortable for those of us that do not like or have ac.
deleted for the pig
A long, slow, walk back: Model "T" Stock Trends: A Brick By Brick Housing Recovery
how's it hangin'?
The 'bailiff's' unions are going to want more hazard pay. Or, you can hire someone to evict them.