How Much Good Will QE3 Be? - MarketBeat - WSJ

June 15, 2012,

"...it’s hard to see how much of an effect a new Fed program will have on just the U.S. economy, forget a global economy being dragged down by the European crisis. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke himself alluded to this in his Congressional testimony earlier this month."

PS.

There is a Fed meeting in November after the election. Pencil in QE3 then.

Haralambos wrote:

The W, K and J codes have been reserved

Twenty six letters of the alphabet; twenty-eight (and counting) E.U. members. Something's gotta give.

Print, print, print.
Like it will help.

Might help Obama get through this by and get re-elected for the Obama supporters here and everywhere including the big investment banking circles who have done pretty well with him. Why mess up a good sure thing (for them) and the supporting blogs?

Markets Anticipate Euro Bailout and QE3 - TheStreet

06/15/12 -

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- "The U.S. capital markets are under the influence of expectations of additional money printing. A European bailout plan is on the table following the Greek elections this weekend. The Federal Reserve is expected to offer QE3 at their FOMC meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. In anticipation of more money printing, speculation is returning the markets for U.S. Treasuries, gold and crude oil, the euro versus the dollar, and the major equity averages."

I think they will wait until evidence is clear of a slowdown, just to cover their own and I think they realize it will not make much of a difference. It might blunt the major shocks but it will not fix the problem.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

It might blunt the major shocks but it will not fix the problem.

Don't think the goal is to fix the problem.

I took all the odds and ends pieces from the snapper that had too many bones to use for anything else and made fish stock. I then strained it all and picked the meat away from the bones. There was about 2 lbs of meat left in bits and pieces. I diced up some potatoes, celery, carrots, banana and green bell peppers and onion and threw them in the stock to simmer with a large can of diced tomatoes and a few bay leaves. I threw in a couple cups of dry white wine for good measure and let is simmer a bit longer. Fish chowdah....

our model points to a probability of easing of 75% at the June meeting.

does the ever publish its model ? or how its validated ? hey I publish mine, publish its results on a holdout set, describe the 10 or techniques used - the lot - it may not be as eye catching as these models -

Top 10 highest paid models of 2012 - Fashion Galleries - Telegraph

but hey publish and be damned damnit- or else I'd say their model is :

' do a little ass-kissing during our Weekend At Bernies' and repeat what the man told us to say.

Oh yeah, and some fresh sweet basil from the garden and a couple cloves of garlic. It's kind of a poor mans chowder that is actually thickened by the bits and pieces of fish.

aleister perdurabo quoted:

"the private sector is ever more challenged to overhaul its strategy and make its business models future proof."

There is no such thing.

Although the way our house wrens keep producing broods they may know something about the future that we don't.

Top 10 highest paid models of 2012

Think Miranda Kerr is worth it?

It's fact: print more dollars and there are more dollars. Inflate credit by lowering rates and there is more credit. More credit means more debt. The early banker at the discount window gets the bonus.

1 currency now -yogi quote:

One thing I could never figure out, is why the media is always quoting "Goldman analysts", in light of their feelings about all of us Muppets.

More credit means more debt.

Time for less of both. Ability to pay is a problem for many. duh

Buy buy buy.

Must eat before NBA circus. Later.

Baby boomers shouldn't expect large inheritances from their parents | Moneyland | TIME.com

"The Boston College Center for Retirement Research found that falling asset values has reduced projected inheritances for baby boomers by 13%. The Center for the Study of Aging at Rand Corp., a nonprofit, found that individuals have reduced their wealth transfer expectations by 19%. Even the affluent are pulling back."

It's a zero sum game. When someone loses, someone wins.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero–sum_game

more QE
yeah
YEAH

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

Inflate credit by lowering rates and there is more credit.

more credit than there would otherwise be surely ? cos hasn't the amount of credit declined- I swear I used to follow the numbers and this is so..

But yeah I wondered and really wonder where the hell is the money coming from as we visited the wineries - totally full - at per person 15 bucks, 12, 10 bucks for 5 or 6 sample tastings - stop off at 3 wineries x 3 people that's $101.. and the buffet at Pachanga casino - packed man.. packed. and this isn't yer 6 buck Stardust casino buffet . $29 a head !

But I got my money's worth - 34 oysters ! 15 king crab legs, and the list went on and on - wife was embarrassed - honestly J - I do feed him you know..

Just went outside for a minute.
113F
Not a bird anywhere to be seen.
Not a bug crawling anywhere.

The so-called discipline of economic behaviorialism, of which game theory, has moved on to more ambiguous pastures. They're playing with (f)MRI machines now. Please make a note of it.

CalculatedRisk wrote:

I think that puts the odds of QE3 very high.

If enough people believe, then the emperor is wearing clothes.

QE X is self-fulfilling prophecy. Are you reporting the odds as "facts" or do you have some skin in the game like the rest of us?
Everyone's job depends on an "agenda." ...

Tom Stone wrote:

It's foggy on the coast and 71 degrees here

I'll need to bring a coat if we vacation there.

Haralambos wrote:

For JP--pigged from the last thread

Thanks Haralambos. Checksum makes more sense.

YouTube - Yello You Gotta Say Yes To Another Excess

Do you think there is no impact on the economy? I think there has been a little ...

Sure. I don't know what Twist etc. have done for interest rates but there's no arguing with Japan-style ZIRP as a palliative to keep real estate at something close to the unaffordably high levels it reached last decade.

We've borrowed & spent $6T+ since 2009, right? That was also a pretty good palliative.

Lots of USD on this planet, and they all have to come back to us eventually. The inflationistas don't really understand that I gather.

CalculatedRisk wrote:

The FOMC has a dual mandate. As I noted, their inflation projections are below their target (would argue for more accommodation), and their unemployment rate projections are above their target (argue for more).

But its a triple mandate no ?

The Congress established three key objectives for monetary policy—maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates—in the Federal Reserve Act.[10]

2.7% 30 year Treasury yields is hardly moderate long-term interest rates is it ? its quite IMMODERATELY cheap !

But the dual mandate isn't to keep inflation at a target that they set ( it could then bloody be any old bloody number cdn't it ? ) -its STABLE prices.. i.e. 0 % by any normal use of the word stable..

maximum employment ? assuming these metrics conflict ( and I'm not sure they do ) - what's the published min-max function across those metrics then for this ?

They are blowing smoke in our muppet-like faces - its always all about the banks and the ELITE. that's all.

The bubbles will continue until the collapse of the political and monetary systems creating them.

If QE3 paid down the debts of J6P, the money would go to the banks anyway.
Sounds crazy, but it gets rid of debt, frees up funds for consumption and the banks get the money anyway.

Don't know what to tell everyone who has no debt, maybe just a nice check in the mail.

Rickkk wrote:

Baby boomers shouldn't expect large inheritances from their parents | Moneyland | TIME.com

There will be a transfer of wealth certainly -- from the boomer parents to the health care providers.

That's already begun awhile back and is full swing right now. Thus the incredibly high cost of health care.

The bubbles will continue until the collapse of the political and monetary systems creating them.

You mean right about now?

Comrade Troyski wrote:

Do we know why the economy is in "bad shape" now?

Start with the bullshit term "the economy". More gold toilets and jobs for servicing the elites.

Everyone up to date (or paid off) on their mortgage gets a check for 1% the value of their house.

Like I said about Spain, we too need wage inflation, not inflation per se.

I lack the rigorous model of the economy to know how wage inflation can be created.

Perhaps cost-push will work, like it did in the 1970s.

I doubt it though -- our economy wasn't so tightly integrated with third-world cheap-labor workforces larger than our own like it is now (the Chinese were still busy shooting at each other during Ford's inflation event).

I don't think our economy needs a $1 of growth from here. We need 100% redistribution -- from a lot of people, not just the 1%.

(The public pension BS is a pretty big problem along with everything else.)

Rob Dawg wrote:

There wil be no QE3.

I think as time goes on money printing will become more and more covert.

Currency debasement is the precursor to complete lawlessness -- at least when it concerns the elite.

It's not different this time.

When a company needs funds and does so by diluting shares, we don't say the firm is debasing its "currency." Yet we hear it all of the time for countries whose economies are imploding and whose central banks turn on the presses.

skk wrote:

But the dual mandate isn't to keep inflation at a target that they set ( it could then bloody be any old bloody number cdn't it ? ) -its STABLE prices.. i.e. 0 % by any normal use of the word stable..

I actually called the NYFed a couple of weeks ago and a staffer listened to me make that argument. He actually said,"2% every year IS a stable rate". I think I said that a million billion trillion every year is also stable, by that reasoning. You have to dumb it down a little for the Princeton types...

Whiskey wrote:

When a company needs funds and does so by diluting shares,

You can decide to buy or sell those shares.
Where do we get to decide what our currency is worth from day to day?

Comrade Troyski wrote:

Fed can't do unless it starts mailing debit cards directly to US households or otherwise enables the UST to slip money to the masses.

It's already doing that for 1/7 of the population.

I'd like in the mail.

that's what the 2% FICA cut is. Don't want to forget about that.

Pretty slick, the debt it's incurring doesn't even show up on the FRED charts I post.

It's already doing that for 1/7 of the population.

The Fed? How so?

JP wrote:

It's already doing that for 1/7 of the population.

How much of that is retirement or disability?
How many still qualify for SNAP when retired or disabled?
Is part of that the Fed paid extended unemployment?

Whiskey wrote:

When a company needs funds and does so by diluting shares, we don't say the firm is debasing its "currency." Yet we hear it all of the time for countries whose economies are imploding and whose central banks turn on the presses.

O come on.. the company sells shares - sells OWNERSHIP ( and future profits if the funds raised are UTILIZED properly )..

where's MY f'in stake that's the price/pleasure of acqueising to the central bank print ?

quite apart from 'where my CHOICE in participating in that print ? " If I don't rate a company's raising of funds by share capital issuance I don't have to buy at all ( the list is LONNngggggggg of the number of companies where I didn't participate in the call for new share capital )

So surely the analogy doesn't hold at all..

I see lots of double and triple dipping. Generally the same folks that want less gubmint and moar freedum.

ac wrote:

"unclear on the concept"

Google Image Result for http://www.brandchannel.com/home/image.axd%3Fpicture%3D2012%252F6%252Fkarl_marx_credit_card.jpg

"enables the UST" to keep funding food stamps, which is a debit card in the modern world

I don't think the Fed had done much to lower interest rates, actually. Exogenous events are driving that plunge -- too many trillions with no better place to go than USTs.

You can thank Uncle Al for that.

M3 Money Stock (DISCONTINUED SERIES) (M3) - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Tunnel time. Whiskey out.

Hi! My name is Mr. Market!

You'd better give me QE tomorrow or I'm going to be pissed! Really pissed!

You don't want to see me pissed!

Thanks! See you tomorrow!

mp wrote:

Hi! My name is Mr. Market!
You'd better give me QE tomorrow or I'm going to be pissed! Really pissed!

No QE3.
Not yet. It's not bad enough yet.
Mr. Market, you will just have to jump on the expectation, the rumors, the wishfull thinking of "experts".

CalculatedRisk wrote:

nomy is in better shape - the larger balance sheet will spill over into the economy. At the point the Fed will have to reduce the balance sheet and raise

Thanks for the concise answer. Appreciated.

1 currency now -yogi - I actually called the NYFed a couple of weeks ago

You are really going get put on some list for that move yogi.
And a set goal of 2% inflation is theft, and they need more to deal with the debt so you know it's a lie also.

skk wrote:

stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates

for all intents and purposes aren't those one and the same? deep data analysis might show otherwise, but in the big picture....

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

to dumb it down a little for the Princeton types...

We had a family member dating a princeton prof.

We always had to dumb down the conversations a bit when they were around...

whimsical comment about the Fed mailing debit cards was effectively already in progress.

No, that's thanks to the Pelosi-era stimulus legislation.

If I'm reading this right:

FRB: H.4.1 Release--Factors Affecting Reserve Balances--June 3, 2010 

the Fed has expanded its balance sheet $25B over the TTM, right?

Granted, I guess it can write off investment losses from that to make it look better, LOL.

Actual UST purchases look to be $90B. SNAP may be $80B, but the total fiscal deficit has been $1.4T over the TTM.

I'm thinking BIG balance cards

peak quarterly CMDEBT delta was +$313B in 3Q05.

$300B/100m households is $1000/mo.

That would just about do it.

But it should be understood that CMDEBT was over +$200B/qtr from 1Q02 through 3Q07.

That was the stealth stimulus of the Bush years.

Automation and third world labor have dealt a poor hand to j6p.
The only way to level the playing field is to charge for access to
the US market.

disposable income after the bills are paid and food is on the table.

aka "discretionary income".

this is why I rail at rent-seeking in land so much here. It's a primary imbalance in the system, many other problems -- like energy imports -- are rounding errors on this.

The only thing that rivals the land issue is our $8000/capita health expense, and I think land is a bigger impoverisher than that.

josap wrote:

Not yet. It's not bad enough yet.

didn't you write words to this effect last night?
I don't work with people I don't like
and I am very well paid...
...
interesting way you describe yourself...

justaskin wrote:

for all intents and purposes aren't those one and the same? deep data analysis might show otherwise, but in the big picture....

but if its so then lets have moderate long term interest rates then.. I pick the 4.5% 30 Year Treasuries as the number - target that then ( and that IS something that the Fed can do - just buy lots of 30 year Treasuries then ) and since interest rates and stable prices are the same for all intents and purposes - prices will reach the stability that equivalent to 4.5% 30 year treasuries - no ?

you cannot possibly be saying that the 3 objectives conflict are you

Comrade Troyski wrote:

Scarcity in this country is an artificiality -- our alleged $15.4T GDP is $50,000 per man, woman, and child. If that is not enough to live in complete luxury for all, what is the truth?

give the man a

QE3 as in $3k in your pocket for that " Thingamajig ", we know the drop is coming.

YouTube - Obama Economic Plan: Go Buy A Thingamajig

Evening Maryann...That Audience wants that $3k, look in the background, it looks like a Jerry Springer infomercial.

"Elite Agent Services" is now offering courses on how to make a "Hypnotic Listing Presentation" That shows agents how to hypnotize potential clients into saying YES! Only $250! Wow, this is even cooler than driving my business with facebook and that's WAY COOL!. I could, like, you know, become the Nostradamus of Real Estate!

‘the rich must religiously refrain from cutting down the workmen’s earnings, whether by force, by fraud, or by usurious dealing; and with all the greater reason because the laboring man is, as a rule, weak and unprotected, and because his slender means should in proportion to their scantiness be accounted sacred.’
Rerum Novarum, 1891 Rerum Novarum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Roman Catholic Church is influential in Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and the USA. The Holy Father doesn’t hesitate to speak out on issues that he feels are important, so you’d think that he might express an opinion on the austerity/bailout policy.

They have a hotline for reporting suspicions of ethical violations in banking. ("Anonymously", in theory.) So I reported that the Chairman of a large bank that received favorable treatment in obtaining tens of billions of dollars in discounted loans actually sits as a director of the very agency that awards the discounts.

Despite being mostly PHD Economists from elite universities, the young people at the Fed are not so dumb that they know they'd better answer the calls on the citizens' hotline. If not things just get hotter.

Celebrating Global Economic Statecraft Day | U.S. Department of State Blog

Till morning

yuan wrote:

the big lie is that redistribution is:

a) infective

You have a counterexample and time frame in mind? Redistribution is not sustainable. That's different from ineffective.

P.S. I assume you meant ineffective and not infective like you wrote. If not, very funny.

Tom Stone wrote:

How much extra are the thermal sights?

Standard with the urban loiter package. Specify Northeastern Green (Albany) or Southwestern Dun (Phoenix) camouflage option.

They have a hotline for reporting suspicions of ethical violations in banking.

The line must be busy a lot.

arthur_dent wrote:

When you shrink the value of a meter, everything grows in length.

In Borscht Belt terms, it's about parallel parking in inches. Whoever has the gold makes the rules, but the handy guy who calibrates the scales is a good person to know also.

josap wrote:

We talked about the "stimulus" of people staying rent free in houses in foreclosure for years.
What happens when all those people have to pay rent? Sure they are paying rent, going to the investor, who pays the bank on the loan.

More important is what happens when the banks who have been reporting those payments and penalties as current revenue reconcile to books at disposition.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Redistribution is not sustainable.

redistribution is an essential part of market capitalism. you can't have a market if someone can "make" the market.

the concentration of wealth and capital in the usa has created a system where an entrenched elite increase their wealth via wage arbitrage without sharing the gains in productivity. this does not end well.

Tom Stone wrote:

90-95 in Sonoma, 80-85 in Sebastopol and 60 degrees on the coast

Yep, layers.

I just want to stand in cold air. Outside cold air.

No, but I can't get him on the phone. I don't think he plays squash, and I don't have a billion dollars to deposit with him.

yuan wrote:

a system where an entrenched elite increase their wealth via wage arbitrage without sharing the gains in productivity. this does not end well.

Ends just fine for the elite.
The main street worker has global competition for those wages. There are fewer jobs done by humans due to technology.
People on main street know this. And most in the western world aren't going hungry - yet.

skk wrote:

Comrade Troyski wrote:
Scarcity in this country is an artificiality -- our alleged $15.4T GDP is $50,000 per man, woman, and child. If that is not enough to live in complete luxury for all, what is the truth?
give the man a (cigar)

That's not income, is it? Isn't that what we produce? Workers wages are much less, no? And don't Investors get a big part of it too without working at all? I'm asking...

volker quit jogging

kept spilling my beer

traderwalt wrote:

Isn't that what we produce? Workers wages are much less, no?

It couldn't all go to wages.
Have to cover capital expenses, reserves, taxes.
Also need to do the numbers by working age, not count kids and elders.

QE3 will be in the Mittens Budget, not O's ... ... thus open for adjustment by GOP, just as with TARP l

Also See Ot: A Pension Battle Erupts in San Jose With Cops and Firefights at Center - WSJ.com

The city had a $115 million deficit in the latest fiscal year, San Jose's 10th year in a row in the red. Pensions were the biggest drain, says the mayor's office. Of the $79 million in increased costs, retirement expenditures accounted for $58 million.

==> A new, supplemental poverty measure introduced by the Census Bureau last November nearly doubled the official estimate of Americans over 65 living in poverty, to 15.9%, mainly due to medical costs not counted in the official numbers. More than 34% were either poor or near-poor—defined as having family income less than twice the poverty line. Half of all retirement-age persons who were no longer working—that is, who were receiving Social Security—had total yearly income of less than $16,140—only a fraction more than the federal minimum wage.

... the U.S. faces a “retirement income deficit” of $6.6 trillion—larger than Social Security’s projected 75-year shortfall and five times the size of the current-year federal deficit. The Retirement Income Deficit is a new measure unveiled in fall 2010 by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

Doc Holiday wrote:

who were receiving Social Security—had total yearly income of less than $16,140—

too much to qualify for food stamps.

Sunday Night: Asian Stocks and US Futures Up

josap wrote:

Ok, someone is getting way more than their share.

Thanks, Rajesh and josap

josap wrote:

Weather Forecast Phoenix Area, AZ | Phoenix Area Weather | Wunderground

Phx. check the 10 day.

Ooof. Steal your breath heat.