Report: Greece's New Democracy projected to win, Expect to form government
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sun, 06/17/2012 - 11:56am (367 comments)
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Crisis over.
yeah right
until next week end same time
If all of us on this blog are supposed to stick to what we know why is Duke commenting on anything else than Starbucks Barrista work?
MattFea wrote:
Greeks agree to lend €100 billion to Spain to bail out their banks? That was easy.
gabyjan, exactly. This just buys a little more time for policymakers to waste. For Greece to stay in the euro long term, they need an official debt reduction. A little more inflation would help reduce the real debt load of Spain and Italy, but Greece is too far in debt.
CR:
I think you need to reconsider the definition of "kicking butt".
As far as traffic, sure, yellow journalism drives traffic. Making stuff up isn't my thing."
...
you're in the eyeball business aren't you CR?
...
yellow journalism is easy to spot. what's devilish is 'balanced reporting' that uses subtlety
to push their hidden agenda.
...
SYZRIA must be overjoyed. Great showing and frozen out. Every bad thing will be owned by the coalition government.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
you got some on your trousers
ask your NK super model GF to show you where
volker the viking wrote:
Duke, I'm not really in the "eyeball business". I wrote this blog for 2 1/2 years without ads. Back then I was just trying to express my concerns about the housing bubble - I was talked into taking ads by people in the comments.
It seems some people like my approach, so I've continued. I admit I'm pro-data / pro-facts, and will change my views / models based on new data. That is my agenda.
I had an email discussion with "Tyler Durden" several years ago. He thought we were on the "same team" (his words). I almost died laughing. "Same team"? I'm on the fact side of the equation; he isn't. I make fun of zero, but I think there is room for everyone.
Rob Dawg, yes. If Syriza had won, they would have to perform - and I think this is an impossible task unless the Europeans decide to reward ND / Pasok with some sort of debt reduction plan (perhaps disguised as stimulus).
It should be noted that the parties picked their slate which means there will be both unity and a number of people gaining governing experience that would not be electable in an individual candidate election.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
that's what she said
FLAME WAR!!!
wonder how many Ron Paul delegates will emerge
volker the viking wrote:
You've been watching too many Alien movies.
Good morning.
Electing a right wing government at this point certainly does not seem a win for the people of Greece.
Antipodes wrote:
Buys them a few weeks. Say.... three? G20 in Mexico City will probably find some way to reward them for saving the German banks.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
There is room to make fun of everyone? I heartily endorse this sentiment.
He thought we were on the "same team"
They always say that when they're intending to manipulate you.
And if you're on the same team, why doesn't he have you on his blog roll?
Antipodes, the Germans said today they'd accept some delays. But that is not enough.
Somehow they need to reduce the debt burden - and get a wage adjustment.
One way would be to repudiate all debt and go back to the Drachma. That is probably still the most likely course.
So what's the reaction in Greece?
CR writes: "I admit I'm pro-data / pro-facts, and will change my views / models based on new data. That is my agenda."
...
that seemingly is your approach but what happens when the data isn't really there... does one just much around in the swamp
until it arrives?
...
CR: "I had an email discussion with "Tyler Durden" several years ago. He thought we were on the "same team" (his words). I almost died laughing. "Same team"? I'm on the fact side of the equation; he isn't. I make fun of zero, but I think there is room for everyone."
...
Tyler wasn't that far off, after all, you are all up against the MSM who would smash you like a bug if they could unless they could use you as 'useful idiots'. The Hedge is a bit too free wheeling for my tastes but occasionally they score big, plus, they've got an anarchic flavor which can be amusing...
Who. Cares.
Not. Us.
A little more wage inflation would help reduce the real debt load of Spain and Italy
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
can they use you as an "useful idiot"?
Outsider wrote:
here is one perspective ...
yeah! how come?!
FLAME WAR!
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I disagree. Going back the Drachma would require action by Parliament, unlikely in a situation where the majority will be small and the overwhelming preference is to stay in the Euro. It may make sense economically but it's a disaster politically.
More likely is muddle through
.
JP, "If we couldn't laugh we would all go insane"
YouTube - Jimmy Buffett "Changes In Latitudes, Changes In Attitudes/Why Don't We Get Drunk" Live
CR
yes, you're right. ZH does seems to be on the short side of the market.
I do remember you called the bottom correctly in March '09 when the vast
majority on here said there was going to be another leg down...
sadly, I had some cash and didn't put it on your horse... learned my lesson
"With the Greek economy in free fall, this just buys a little time until the next review shows Greece is far short of the bailout goals."
Ah no.
Expect fierce laws on tax evasion and massive pension reform which will provide the impetus for France, Spain, and Italy to change.
RayOnTheFarm wrote:
A coalition of New Democracy, Syriza and PASOK might require that Venizelos accept the burden of being Prime Minister.
Rob Dawg wrote:
You must be depressed that Monday is not going to be the bloodbath that you had hoped.
Sad really....
its nap time so be good
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Yes, even political shills and no-nothings such as ZeroRight and Mish. The problem is that people actually believe their bilge.
So if the Greeks don't appear to be upset, I'm not upset either.
:carry on:
YouTube - Crosby Stills Nash - Carry On / Questions
Downstairs half bath being redone. We've bought most of the stuff. No tub. But I bet we'll be done before dawg!!,
later... walking over to Ikea...
they better not be out of that dollar cone of frozen yogurt again
or I might have to open up a can of hurt on 'em...
So the world banks are spending the weekend with their fingers on the PRINT button in case Greece votes out the euro. What happens to the markets when they don't?
Unintended Consequence #2819.
lawyerliz wrote:
hope you're not using RD Home Improvements, LLC
Now that Greece is no longer a grease fire, here is something really important:
Why our food is making us fat | Business | The Guardian
Quotable:
"Hank Cardello, the former head of marketing at Coca-Cola, tells me that in 1984, Coke in the US swapped from sugar to HFCS (In the UK, it continued to use sugar). As a market leader, Coke's decision sent a message of endorsement to the rest of the industry, which quickly followed suit. There was "no downside" to HFCS, Cardello says. It was two-thirds the price of sugar, and even the risk of messing with the taste was a risk worth taking when you looked at the margin, especially as there were no apparent health risks. At that time, "obesity wasn't even on the radar" says Cardello."
This may well be the worst case outcome for the US markets next week.
No certainty but the panic outflows from euroland slow down, and probably no money bazookas on either side of the pond.
volker the viking wrote:
Might as well build a coffin.
Global panic, over. Whew!
Now, no liquidity pump tomorrow. Gotta shed a few hundred fluff points, right?
nite thread:
At times reading thru these overnight threads one has to wonder what one person is behind many of these personas, or what team of persons, ideology, agenda.
Public opinion can be shaped thru anonymous messengers. To think that blogs are contra-propaganda may not be so accurate after all.
"Believe half of what you see, and only .0000001% of what you read in blog commentaries" - Outsider 5 a.m.
Ask a couple of questions and this is the reply... but good point and it holds for all the 'everything is ok' and 'it's getting better' commentary... if you have hard data about Fukushima Outsider, then post it instead of posting murky accusations...
Quotable:
"Another reason for optimism on the housing front is thatAmericans are forming households faster than new homes are being built,
Waitaminute! The HCN intelligentsia has said time and time again household formation was dead. This goes hand in hand with the spooky shadow inventory meme.
Housing Starts Probably Rose in May: U.S. Economy Preview - Bloomberg
Now, back to your regularly scheduled broadcast:
Rodney King dead at 47 - CNN.com
poic wrote:
He knows how to get rid of crabs too! Don't misunderestimate the duke...
merchants of fear wrote:
Only the easiest of prey are infected. Most likely the 50 percent who believe in a 10,000 year old Earth.
"later... walking over to Ikea...
they better not be out of that dollar cone of frozen yogurt again
or I might have to open up a can of hurt on 'em... "
My goto dish is their Swedish meatball plate
Nah viking, I'M USING SON OF lLIZ & credit card & willpower. If I WERE mrs. Dawg, I'd have hired someone to finish it by now. Then I'd be the ex-MRS Dawg!-
RockyR wrote:
drugs.
For 47 years old, he looks like hell.
Got back fine Tom. Thanks for the offer.
Tom Stone wrote:
Gasoline and an ice-pick?
poic wrote:
But how many grass fires did you start on the way home?
Greek drachma - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In November 1944, after Greece was liberated from Germany, old drachmae were exchanged for new ones at the rate of 50,000,000,000 to 1.
Imagine how many MEFO Bonds that would buy today ...
And, once again - NΔ is the banker-shill EPP affiliate. Of course they would win, or at least get a controlling chunk.
Bankerocracy is the "new democracy". They aren't even subtle.
Is democracy still functioning when 50% of Greeks have not voted for either of the two contending parties? #Greece2012
when the other 50% vote, sure!
This is just so awesome you guys:
Gawker
He was a fine, upstanding citizen KP. He was just misunderstood.
KarmaPolice wrote:
Goes hand in hand with the above
Why our food is making us fat | Business | The Guardian
K8ng ended up with a swimming pool? Success story??
RockyR wrote:
I admire the man for keeping his head when all about him were losing theirs. His words about getting along could not have been more poignant.
vtcodger posted this to show there are no unsafe levels of radioactivity in Tokyo to back Outsider's over-reaction on the subject of just asking about it:
Monitoring results of air dose rates at 5cm and 1meter above the ground all over Tokyo (2011/06/22)
Monitoring results of air dose rates at 5cm and 1meter above the ground all over Tokyo (2011/06/21)
Monitoring results of air dose rates at 5cm and 1meter above the ground all over Tokyo (2011/06/20)
Monitoring results of air dose rates at 5cm and 1meter above the ground all over Tokyo (2011/06/19)
Monitoring results of air dose rates at 5cm and 1meter above the ground all over Tokyo (2011/06/18)
Monitoring results of air dose rates at 5cm and 1meter above the ground all over Tokyo (2011/06/17)
Monitoring results of air dose rates at 5cm and 1meter above the ground all over Tokyo (2011/06/16)
Monitoring results of air dose rates at 5cm and 1meter above the ground all over Tokyo (2011/06/15)
Note: Notice the dates of the measurements.
Outsider laments the anonymity of blogs by posting this anonymous comment:
Public opinion can be shaped thru anonymous messengers.
Yes, Feckless. He will be missed.
2 minute moment of silence please.
MattFea wrote:
Great stuff there: "Corn became the engine for the massive surge in the quantities of cheaper food being supplied to American supermarkets: everything from cereals, to biscuits and flour found new uses for corn. As a result of Butz's free-market reforms, American farmers, almost overnight, went from parochial small-holders to multimillionaire businessmen with a global market."
If it could be proved that at that some point the food industry became aware of the long-term, detrimental effects their products were having on the public, and continued to develop and sell them, the scandal would rival that of what happened to the tobacco industry.
Eventually, the point will be reached when the cost to the NHS of obesity, which is now £5bn a year, outweighs the revenue from the UK snacks and confectionery market, which is currently approximately £8bn a year.
I can't tell if you're snarking, Rocky. I wasn't.
This suggests New Democracy will be able to form a government.
No, it doesn't.
Pasok Throws A Monkey Wrench Into Coalition Discussions | ZeroHedge
PASOK official Anna Diamantopoulou said that PASOK would not join a coalition government without SYRIZA.
PASOK considers citizens have downvoted the party’s policies therefore it can not join a pure ND-PASOK government.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: New Democracy Wins But May Be Unable to Form Coalition; Syriza Has Coalition Chances If New Democracy Fails
We are all in the year 2011 forever now.
Rob Dawg wrote:
No kidding.
I'm not snarking, per se. It's sad, but unsettling at the same time?
More this: now, for the second most important story of the day:
'The Sandusky 8' describe seduction, molestation and betrayal - CNN.com
household formation is consumption, not production.
there needs to be a surplus somewhere else to support it.
Unemployment Rate - 20 to 24 years, Men (LNS14000037) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
demographically, and not counting immigrants, the age 22-32 population is now 42M, up from 37M of the early 2000s.
from here this population will be smoothly rising to ~50M by 2050.
So there is great demand for new housing baked into the cake.
Balancing this, the baby boom will start dying off in greater numbers around now, too, as they entire their 60s and 70s.
Next, New Democracy will refuse to form a new government because it did not win by a clear majority.
Surprise! Nobody wants to run into a burning Parthenon.
Antipodes wrote:
Not rightestest wing though so its all relative.
Plus they get to form a coalition with PASOK which is supposedly 'socialist' [kind of 'inconceivable']. So who knows.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Ya that will make those Germans happy.
and to think; this from an otherwise thoughtful man
Sometimes actually knowing a bit about a subject can be something of a handicap. - vtcodger
There was some updated stuff too you provided. Tokyo is safe supposedly. Thank you.
Are there more people dropping off the SS rolls than are going onto them each year now ?
what happened in Japan, cesium-wise, was roughly equivalent to a couple of bad above-ground tests we did in the 1950s.
what got dumped into the ocean during the emergency was probably worse than what got released via the various plumes.
The Tokyo area did dodge a bullet when the prevailing winds took the two major blow-ups' debris clouds out to sea.
Hey, dryfly, if the Germans want their European empire, they need to step up and pay for it!
Is the drinking water safe there without a shadow of a doubt?
Does the government there possess accurate information on radiation readings, and would they be motivated to share those readings with the public if they were too high for comfort?
Should I find something more productive to do? - Outsider
FU scumbag.
poic wrote:
Good to hear, and you are welcome.
RockyR wrote:
Ya Empires don't pay for themselves...
Wow. Ing must be profiling HCN. Two different banner ads in the past few minutes. The second one has a
.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
What soaked up into the ground directly in the area of the 'burn through' is probably worse yet. Or at least as bad since concentrated.
Feckless Ness wrote:
It's not HCN they're profiling...
The are a few ironies, the most obvious being the neo-fascists with the psuedo-swastika logo are probably the only ones with a coherent understanding of what sovereignty is and isn't.
merchants of fear wrote:
What's the problem, merchants? Her concerns sound valid to me.
Feckless Ness wrote:
If there's a calving glove on that fist someone's going to have an exciting afternoon...
dryfly wrote:
if not already, a dead zone will soon split the island nation in two
dryfly wrote:
Don't forget this:
UW-CIMSS "TCTrak" Tropical Cyclone Tracker for StormY 05W
most certainly. There were 3.6M people born 62 years ago, plus all the legalized immigrants we got since then (who offset the native-born not enrolled in FICA or have died to some extent).
Peak birth year was 1957, 1957+62 = 2019, and there were 4.4M births during the peak boom years.
I don't know how that translates into new claims, but going with 50% . . . 4.4e6x0.5/12 is 180,000 new jobs a month to outnumber new claims in 2019.
3.6M*50%/12 is 150,000 new jobs per month.
volker the viking wrote:
Is it in danger of capsizing, like Guam?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Then they're idiots, 'cuz I'm cuckoo for credit unions.
Tom Stone wrote:
LOL -
Very subtle color scheme and emblem, guys...
wait, wait... maybe the big banker-controlled party can make a coalition with them? has europe tried that one before?
I'm not aware of any breach of the concrete pad. I expect the RPV itself resembles swiss cheese on the bottom but AFAIK all that crap was contained in the drywell and torus, plus whatever leaks/diversions they had into the adjoining buildings basements.
Antipodes wrote:
ap - at this point it doesn't matter - its all out there and going where its gonna go. Just a matter of when.
Tom Stone wrote:
Feckless Ness wrote:
You're web searches say something different.
greenchutes wrote:
Guys in Iran gonna love that - maybe take the heat off Tehran for a few years.
LOL. How Bush's grandfather helped Hitler's rise to power | World news | The Guardian
If there are more people dropping off the rolls each year than are being added,
shouldn't the pressure on SS be lessening ?
Feckless Ness wrote:
Don't know the gender of Outsider. I took some crap for asking if the water is safe right now in Tokyo.
Here was Outsider's response:
At times reading thru these overnight threads one has to wonder what one person is behind many of these personas, or what team of persons, ideology, agenda.
Public opinion can be shaped thru anonymous messengers. To think that blogs are contra-propaganda may not be so accurate after all.
"Believe half of what you see, and only .0000001% of what you read in blog commentaries"
Then vtcodger posted some data about radioactivity in Tokyo some of which was a year old but there was updated stuff too... showing safe levels... and apparently the govt. source is to be trusted... and it's completely safe in Tokyo it is indicated I think but I don't see the harm in asking...
Comrade Troyski wrote:
There was a lot of discussion about that early on - it was believed to have been compromised - only question was how badly and how much went down there. No one knew then nor know now.
That isn't all bad either as it migrates slowly and easily 'vitrified' later.
So austerity wins out in the Greek election, but it's taking water over the side elsewhere.
(Reuters) - French President Francois Hollande's Socialists won an absolute parliamentary majority on Sunday, strengthening his hand as he presses Germany to support debt-laden euro zone states hit by austerity cuts and ailing banks.
French Socialists win absolute parliament majority
| Reuters
Sebastian
Doc Holiday wrote:
What happened?
Excessive profits made by cigarette manufacturers need to be capped
Profits Up at Cigarette Firms Despite Anti-Tobacco Drive | The Jakarta Globe
Australia's Cigarette Manufacturers Generate Huge Profits
sporkfed wrote:
There are fewer people paying into SS while ever greater numbers are getting benefits out.
Now they tell us...
Greek election results unlikely to slow crisis - CBS News
Feckless Ness wrote:
I read Outsider's comments as sarcasm... like isn't there a better way to spend your time than asking if the water is safe in Tokyo... I don't see the big problem in asking this question...
y'all can make fun, but the situation is deadly serious in Japan, and soon, sooner than any seem willing to accept, it will be visited upon us all
Sebastian wrote:
Mish was saying this was a bigger deal than the Greek election. (Cue for Mish haters to dispense their hate.)
Greece left to fend for itself as companies head for exit door - The Economic Times
Last time PASOK would not join a coalition that did not include SYRIZA. What has changed?
Hahahaha, get some more austerity bitches. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ecofin/131027.pdf
Yalt wrote:
Precisely. ND wasn't able to form a coalition before, and now they're weaker.
Doing some research I see 60.7M SS beneficaries for Dec 2011:
Number of people receiving Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, or both, December 2011 | Intellectual Takeout (ITO)
May 2012 shows 61.6M, for an increase in 900,000 beneficiaries.
Monthly Statistical Snapshot, February 2011
May 2012 jobs came in at 133M.
Dec 2011 was 132.2M, for an increase of 800,000 jobs.
All Employees: Total nonfarm (PAYEMS) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
note that PAYEMS actually counts jobs, not employees. This was a surprise to me not too long ago.
Yalt wrote:
More votes for Syriza. If ND fails, Syriza and the rest can just step right in. Then the real fun begins.
After Greece, The Pain in Spain Remains - MarketBeat - WSJ
June 17, 2012, 3:56 PM
" No matter what the electoral outcome in Greece, sophisticates know the markets have already moved on to fix their fire on the next gorilla in the Euro group: Spain. "
Greek election results unlikely to slow crisis - CBS News
"...the issue of whether the Greeks remain in the euro is now a secondary concern. Its importance has been entirely eclipsed by the increasing danger of Spain's economic collapse."
But where can I find the numbers ? I want to know how many drop off the rolls versus how many are added.
Could be that fewer are paying in but just maybe more are dropping off the rolls.
merchants of fear wrote:
Outsider is a gentle, self-deprecating soul. FWIW, I have a completely different take on her response.
Rickkk wrote:
From the article...
That would be where? Spain? Italy? France?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
It's not really about ND at this point--the only open question is whether PASOK is now willing to join without support. As far as I know that was always the only question in this election--I'm having trouble figuring out how SYRIZA could form a government either, even if they'd won.
Final
Germany 2
Denmark 1
yay
volker the viking wrote:
vtcodger provided a link for this but it needs to be translated:
results of detection of radioactive material on foodstuffs which distributed in Tokyo / day in japanese only
I think, at this phase in the game, the bankers and their EPP minions are strictly interested in just keeping the EMU whole. They know that any kind of deficit targets are a farce, and, really have been for the better part of the decade. Even the krauts didn't bother keeping within the bounds of the old G&SP.
MattFea wrote:
SYRIZA "and the rest"? They would never invite GD and I doubt PASOK would accept an invite. That would send us back to the ballot box to do it all over again.
greenchutes wrote:
But they were a special case - the job creators of Old Europe.
merchants of fear wrote:
I hate agreeing with anybody, but I can certainly see his point.
When Sarkozy was still in office, France and Germany as the two largest economies in the Eurozone were pretty much shoulder-to-shoulder in support of austerity. Now, not only Germany has lost its biggest ally on this issue but France is liable to start sliding down the slippery slope of easy money, too.
Sebastian
Yalt wrote:
Good thing that couldn't happen...
German foreign minister: Greece could get more time to cut debt
| Reuters
:9iron:
Feckless Ness wrote:
Ok I'll take your word for it... I had some heat from outsider, paradise lost, and justaskin in the past... about this or that... the idea is why worry or look into things too deeply and if you do... you're part of some blog conspiracy... don't you see their paranoia and profiling...
greenchutes wrote:
Deficit targets are just a tactic. a means to an end. What they want is massive privatization of public assets, destruction of the safety net, lower wages, at-will employment,
Sebastian wrote:
Fore! Playing through!
Mish-desired austerity is the path to high-Gini banana republics of haves and have-nots.
Mixed-economy democratic socialism as practiced by Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway is the way to go.
Whether or not a "New Left" France can get there from here is something I do not have the knowledge to make any judgment on.
dryfly wrote:
why not?
Sure, on an ideological level, but the FIRE sector (and the pols they own 100% of here and there) at a certain point need to accept a lack of progress in their larger agenda when issues of basic self-preservation arise.
merchants of fear wrote:
Or tongue-in-cheek teasing.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
How would you get that in the U.S. that's subverted and captured?
Feckless Ness wrote:
Ok is there an icon for that? Maybe we need one. LOL.
BBC News - Greece election: pro-bailout right to attempt coalition
17 June 2012 - 16:07 ET
"If the projections from the interior ministry are proved correct, New Democracy should be able to build a majority coalition with the socialist Pasok, benefiting from a rule which gives the leading party 50 extra seats in the 300-seat chamber.
But the BBC's Matthew Price, in Athens, says the government will be relatively weak and will still seek to renegotiate the terms of the bailout. The election was the second in six weeks, called after a 6 May vote proved inconclusive.
On that occasion, each of the main parties tried but failed to form a coalition government. And so this second election in two months, seen as the most important in Greece's modern history, is going to go right down to the wire.
For now, the politicians are watching and waiting and probably biting their nails. Whoever wins, however narrowly, gets an extra 50 seats in parliament. It could be the decisive difference.
But the winner still needs to put together a coalition government which is strong enough to last - and that may not be so easy.
'Every vote counts'
This time round, New Democracy could also invite a small left-wing party, Democratic Left, to join the coalition to reflect some of the anti-bailout feeling in the country, says the BBC's Mark Lowen in Athens....
Several smaller anti-bailout parties are expected to get between 13 and 21 seats."
23% unemployment that is in free fall. national assets being auctioned off at firesale prices. pensions cut by 60%.
Feckless Ness wrote:
If officials everywhere incl. the U.S, are lying about, minimizing, or underestimating the dangers of Fukushima and the open air fuel rods there, will you reconsider how serious this is?
greenchutes wrote:
Last time it took a decade of horrific depression and six years of shattering world war to reach that point. What's different this time--what or who is threatening their existence? They seem quite firmly in control.
merchants of fear wrote:
Interesting read:
Greece wants the euro but doesn't want the austerity. How much longer can this go on? – Telegraph Blogs
French Socialists Win Absolute Majority in Parliament - Bloomberg
socialism est arrivé!
http://www.fukushihoken.metro.tokyo.jp/shokuhin/ryuutuu/files/120612.pdf
is a list of measured foodstuffs in the May-June period.
it's not worth much proving food was safe, but what it lists is Bq/kg of stuff.
"検出せず" means no measurable radiation detected.
The highest detection was 95 Bq/kg for 大豆 -- fermented soybans aka "natto".
Bananas come in at ~130 Bq/kg thanks to their potassium isotope.
New Democracy
How were the votes counted?
Fukushima Reactor 4 poses massive global risk | CTV News
Sunday June. 17, 2012
"It is no exaggeration to say that the fate of Japan and the whole world depends on No. 4 reactor," Murata said in a recent letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon..."
Rob Dawg wrote:
Shrewd comment.
I read now that PASOK has refused to join any coalition that does not include SYRIZA. Some kind of hammerlock on the political process in Greece.
merchants of fear wrote:
I think it's deadly serious. There's also nothing I can do about what's happening in Japan. When the debris field hits my area, I'll go out and help clean it up. I welcome your suggestions for personal action.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Thanks.
You also say: it's not worth much proving food was safe, but what it lists is Bq/kg of stuff.
merchants of fear wrote:
I do not believe the official line and have no way to judge just how serious the problem is. Nothing I can do about it. It may be a persistent long term threat or it may go KABLOOOIE! and render the US west coast uninhabitable while poisoning most of the Pacifif Ocean. I have my Iodine tabs and will watch and wait.
Rickkk wrote:
That story is dated a month ago.
yeah, what I meant is if you only measure safe stuff, you'll get safe results.
Plus IIRC it's not actually possible to really detect radiation of foodstuffs, you just can't point a geiger counter at something and then assume it's safe to eat.
Feckless Ness wrote:
This debris you are picking up? Radioactive? Do you need protection to pick it up?
It's not just about what's 'happening in Japan'... this is an international public health issue.
Yalt wrote:
"Seem" is the right word. They can't stop swimming and eating and have few if any restraints.They are already starting to eat each other and will take themselves down, with lots of collateral damage.
Feckless Ness wrote:
"That story is dated a month ago."
The half-life of the fuel rods lasts a tad longer than a month.
- NY Times
May 26, 2012
"Fourteen months after the accident, a pool brimming with used fuel rods and filled with vast quantities of radioactive cesium still sits on the top floor of a heavily damaged reactor building, covered only with plastic."
Yalt wrote:
From what I just read, not a thing.
Tom Stone wrote:
Some advocate painting the soles of the feet with iodine. Not tinted.
merchants of fear wrote:
They should outsource the clean up to Halliburton.
Demographics,
, and their own inability to actually practice banking without being spoonfed fake money and taking it straight to the casino.,
Tom Stone wrote:
Maybe nothing bad will happen. It often does not.
I welcome your suggestions for personal action.
Find out what the trustworthy and reliable facts are first?
Outsider doesn't seem to think that is very important.
Feckless Ness wrote:
I will take reasonable precautions when I can but I refuse to live in fear. Once I have done what I can about a particular situation I move on, I have a life to live and prefer to be happy.
Tom Stone wrote:
Yes, that seems far more likely than that they will suddenly see the threat and voluntarily relinquish their considerable temporary advantages.
Protective effect of ginseng on radiation-induced ... [Cancer Biother Radiopharm. 1996] - PubMed result
merchants of fear wrote:
With numbers.
No. The tsunami wiped out about 300km of Japanese coastline here and there.
The Fukushima event was about 100m of that.
Thanks to the favorable winds (away from Tokyo), the ensuing reactor explosions did actually manage to dump fallout direcly ONTO the disaster areas and floating debris, but it wasn't that much fallout compared to the quantity of debris and all this crap has had more than a year to settle out and drop to the bottom of the ocean.
The lightweight contaminants have short half-lives and are all gone now. The plutonium and cesium are very heavy and if washed into the ocean will tend to settle to the bottom quickly, AFAIK.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
A Geiger counter would not detect an embedded alpha emitter.
Tom Stone wrote:
OK, so the prevailing winds will send most of it over the Pacific Ocean ? How about SK/DRPK and the PRC. They are over there in the same immediate neighborhood. Do they have no exposure (once again, due to the winds) ?
Opera lovers. Die Fledermaus.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I do what I can, that's all I can do. The measured radiation in local Kelp beds caused me to eliminate a few things from my diet.I see plenty of people playing god and haven't seen anyone be successful at it.
Tom Stone wrote:
Yeah but why support nukular power and nuke weaponry at this point?
Iran should give it up. And other nations too.
RayOnTheFarm wrote:
Sure they do. What's an appropriate response? One that is practicable?
I told you around 11am that a Greek debt deal was near, and nobody listened. Typical.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Funny. All elections are valid. All nukes are safe. Trust the banks. Good time to buy a house. Etc. I get it.
If something happens you will have to accept a statistical risk, most of which is probably that of growing children, including those in the womb. How much risk - you'd have to ask experts in nuclear medicine, epidemiology and health statistics.
Tom Stone wrote:
Hippie Liberal.
I gather that Mr. "Durden" doesn't think much of himself.
merchants of fear wrote:
4th generation reactors are a lot better than coal and there ain't many other alternatives. I have never been in favor of nuclear bombs, but liked the neutron bombs as the best bad choice. Clean nukes beat dirty ones. And yes, of course we should all be rational and live in happy harmony...will you hold YOUR breath? I don't have the lung capacity.
merchants of fear wrote:
Yeah, don't be a grump.
Feckless Ness wrote:
Hippie liberal NRA life member.
Paul Craig Roberts--Gold and Silver Suppression Signals Desperation. | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Comrade Troyski wrote:
"The lightweight contaminants have short half-lives and are all gone now. The plutonium and cesium are very heavy and if washed into the ocean will tend to settle to the bottom quickly, AFAIK."
FUKUSHIMA PRIMED FOR WORLD WIDE DISASTER
"The father of Health Physics, Dr. Karl Morgan stated, “There is no safe level of exposure and there is no dose of radiation so low that the risk of a malignancy is zero ~ All this said, there is no way we can avoid Cesium-137 in our food chain. It’s already here and will continue to accumulate until they are able to stop the leak at Fukushima. In the short term Iodine-131 is a concern, but with healthy eating and higher levels of iodine in your diet, you should be able to avoid some of these risks. I believe it’s important that we pay attention to the levels of Strontium-90 and Cesium-137 in the years to come.” See report: Radiation 101 | Nuclear Energy | Health | Cancer | Fukushima | radiationfears.com
Karl Z. Morgan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
merchants of fear wrote:
I see no reason to fudge the tally of an election in which neither side can form a government and thus it doesn't matter who wins.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Pro-industry paid experts or 'independant' experts?
KING ARAGORN
Who are the elves who forged the ring
That Sauron would have worn?
Would they make another such
To please King Aragorn?
The elves are working even now
In suburbs dawn till night,
Lights go on and never dim,
Nor were the stars so bright
They fashion rings to bring the dark
Such is their dirty work,
Renegades who once were light
Who now in towers lurk
Orcs are elves deformed and bent
Though some devise and figure,
They can work such theorems out
With cleverness and rigor
Who would wear that mighty ring,
Such power and refrain
From sealing them inside their labs,
King Aragorn remain?
Pavel
June 17, 2012
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Right, believe in our higher powers:
energy is wealth. We're losing $300B dollars of wealth with our energy imports.
that's $200/mo per household. Hmm, compared to the waste in our health sector and the trillions in rents being taken in housing, that's peanuts, LOL.
I am now officially anti-nuke : )
Yalt wrote:
So why the big market scare about which side won?
Took a phone survey this a.m. Do I have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
Is it more important to:
Do I lean more toward:
How would I vote on a ballot proposition to allow payroll deductions for political purposes? This seemed to be the crux of the call.
The surveyor sounded like a native Chinese speaker. They are getting some weird accent-reduction training over there to disguise the outsourcing, but it just gives them bizarre speech habits.
Iodine 131 has a half-life of 8 days.
Like I said yesterday, the above-ground testing in Nevada did a much worse number on this country than what Fukushima has done to the Japanese, thus far at least.
merchants of fear wrote:
Drama sells. Eyeballs on ads.
merchants of fear wrote:
Is that what it was about? I thought it was about the simple fact of holding an election, which would remove the mirage that a government was possible.
participated in a focus group with a similar theme. The $100 and free Subway was nice.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Yeah - I had a voicemail to come do that.
mp wrote:
perhaps you should try watching the movie Fight Club by director David Fincher
Tyler Durden is played by Brad Pitt...
merchants of fear wrote:
You can't run it up if you first don't run it down. Sheeesh.
Feckless Ness wrote:
I no longer take surveys. The ability to coordinate tiny datums has gotten so powerful only a few answers have you pegged and cross-indexed. The questions you were asked were as part of the push to get a CA tax increase this November.
In case it's not already posted: The leader of Greece's center-right, pro-bailout New Democracy party claimed "a victory for all Europe" after a first-place showing in Sunday's parliamentary elections, promising that unpopular austerity measures "will bring the country back to prosperity."
Greek New Democracy leader hails 'victory for all Europe' - CNN.com
So of the two possibilities:
1. The market rallies because New Democracy wins, and Greece stays in the Euro, or
2. The market rallies because New Democracy lost, Greece leaves the Euro, therefore the central bank will flood the markets with free money,
it looks like #1 is the answer for tomorrow.
I just blackened some Snapper. It was a mix of Red and Vermilion Snappers. Super tasty and light. I mixed the seasoning up myself so it was extra heavy on the heat! Got me sweating now, NOM.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
I think that is absolutely true - with the caveat 'so far'. The reactors had a lot of radioactive material in it - a lot more than a few bombs. But we blew off more than 'a few'. Straight up into the air near where the jet stream crosses - with the thermonuclear bombs generating sufficient heat to push it 'stratospheric'. For like a decade one after an other.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I thought so too, until the last question. It was the only one where they gave any background info, pro & con statements, etc. Maybe I'm wrong.
Banner ad now says Mitt Romney will "restore the promise of America." Has anyone ever run a more vague campaign? I wonder how his wife ever got him to commit.
Feckless Ness wrote:
Coke is it!
Edit: dryfly wins.
Feckless Ness wrote:
I sure HOPE not.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I no longer take free surveys. If somebody is willing to pay, I'll certainly provide some opinions. There are lots of folks who want codgerly opinions. I will provide them for cash or goodies. Even a free ice cream cone will get you a few opinions. Of course I have no compunction with lying to survey takers.
I think Romney's campaign slogan should be:
Day one: Boom, baby, Boom!
So why the big market scare about which side won?
You can't run it up if you first don't run it down. Sheeesh.
Tell Yalt.
Feckless Ness wrote:
It is common to put in a control question to verify that you aren't messing with them.
Day Two: "Ow!"
Message to the BBC and assorted international media on this Greek Election Day:
good luck with that.
There won’t be a third round of elections, at least not all that soon
I sit corrected. NEW SCRIPT.
I thought it was about the simple fact of holding an election, which would remove the mirage that a government was possible.
I think it's about a bunch of unpayable bad debt (excessive risky loans) and a lot of collateral to be collected sooner or later.
So the Greek election didn't change anything. I guess the Euro depression will continue on the same course and speed.
It wasn't going to change anything either way, it could only have sped up the end of Greece in the EZ.
Rob Dawg wrote:
You're right! They played me like a piano. But Jerry's not getting his tax increase.
Feckless Ness wrote:
Why are you so sure? I'll probably vote for it.
merchants of fear wrote:
Drama sells. Eyeballs on ads.
Right. That too.
Let's get to the bottom of all these lending schemes and scams.
So there's responsible parties discovered to pay damages.
He says it will be a "government of national unity", which means he thinks SYRIZA will agree to join the coalition. That seems unlikely to me but what do I know. Anybody seen Haralambos lately?
Feckless Ness wrote:
The increase doesn't stand a chance in hell. What frosts me are the false "polls" being floated that show it close but passing.
JP wrote:
Sandals in the Stadium When Pigs Fly
Not exactly, since I will be watching on tv next Friday, I think, as Greece plays Germany. One of the sports folks commenting on the matches tonight said that on Friday Greece would show Germany what they can do when they form a government. Sorry to all that I have nothing new or interesting to add. I have no idea how long this new government process might take or how long Greece has until the situation is clearer about the medium-term or even the short-term effects for the austerity, euro exit, more can-kicking, or boots in the streets again.
Local data points trivia: our week at the seaside led me to believe that traffic was off over last summer. The fellow we rented from has eight units in villas (actually duplexes with three bedrooms). There were nine of us including two young children and an extended family from Bulgaria in the adjoining one. Family members were in and out for a couple of days each from Bulgaria. The owner of the places, a Greek, had studied with a couple of brothers from the Bulgarian folks when they were all in the US. The Greek fellow gave a few folks a ride back to Thessaloniki and said he had no bookings for July and August this year yet. Over the last five years he was fully-booked during this period. Be well all.
Good time to buy a house. Etc. I get it.
you had better or you will be called unamerican
If you are a renter, you are 'UnAmerican'?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Actually - a lot of 'controls' and then look for correlation with results from other data points. A well designed survey is not 'one survey' but a mix of similar questions with controls they can then correlate against. That is why you see so much polling with stuff like ...
"Will you vote for Obama or Romney"
Then later
"On a scale of one to five rate how strongly you agree with this statement... 'Obama is doing a good job on the economy?'" ...
The two heavily correlate - if they start seeing divergence something is up.
Haralambos wrote:
which speaks to short-term confidence, as in there isn't much.
Sorry to all that I have nothing new or interesting to add.
Can the accumulated Greek debt be paid? What is the status on the ability and willingness to pay off the debt?
"On a scale of one to five rate how strongly you agree with this statement... 'Obama is doing a good job on the economy?'"
How do you think Obama is doing?
Anybody seen Haralambos lately?
Look above.
Yalt wrote:
To surveyors. I say, I charge x dollars an hour. If you wish to talk to me send me a check for y dollars for 6 minutes. Or, I say you have my phone number, what is yours?
How about Germany and Greece play for it, winner take all ?
Wouldn't that send the ratings through the roof.
merchants of fear wrote:
Badly.
RayOnTheFarm wrote:
merchants of fear wrote:
i wouldnt be suprised if it didnt happen but i really lighted all of the sentence
gabyjan wrote:
And here I read it as 'If you are a rentier are you UnAmerican?" ... Hell no then you are on of the job creators!
I'm glad to see your priorities are straight and you're watching the football. There is no reason to sacrifice the pleasures that remain.
merchants of fear wrote:
only as good as he's allowed.
Oh hell. Did I get myself into trouble again?
Where's that Merchant of Fear?
MOF, if you come back around here, I wasn't at all diminishing the safety concerns of the drinking water in Tokyo. If you go back thru my posts (don't do that - they're boring) - you'll find I am an ardent opposer of nuclear plants. I hate anything nuclear and I feel like Japan is compromised health-wise. (will I get in trouble for saying that too?)
I was just commenting in general, thinking maybe the socratic method would get us further in our thinking than blasting each other, and the "should I find something more productive to do" was pointed at myself in even making comments.
So relax. I'm just as conspiracy theoried as anyone else here.
lawyerliz wrote:
Ah, well. Chinese manufacturing is down. Chinese call centers picking up the slack.
"We're polling for YOU, America!"
See The Folly of Energy Independence:
The Folly of Energy Independence - Gal Luft & Anne Korin - The American Interest Magazine
No Chinese calls yet. Await them eagerly. I will asks about politis. . .
merchants of fear wrote:
I am sure others on this thread know better than I do. The debt can be paid and many folks are willing to pay their fair share for it and are already doing so. The "can" above and "ability and willingness" in your question is the key. I believe it **could **be paid, if Greece managed to collect even 50% of it taxes that are evaded. The key issues to unlock are corruption at the highest levels of government, massive tax evasion by many in the liberal professions (doctors, lawyers, civil engineers and many others), businesses that collect 23% VAT and do not pay it to the state, and hundreds of years of autocratic governance under the Ottomans then their Greek replacements.
what the
does this question even mean, really.
The electorate has to decide which direction this country moves in, left or right. This sandbagged center-right stuff ain't working.
The Bush good times came thanks to households borrowing 20% of their wages:
Graph: Household Sector: Liabilities: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding (CMDEBT)/Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements (A576RC1) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
so of course when that failed everything collapsed.
The underlying problems are not being talked about -- the serial (R) shithead debates didn't mention trade once.
$600B/yr is a massive flow out of this economy. It's great for the 1% but a shitty deal for the 99% over the long run.
US International Trade Data - Foreign Trade - US Census Bureau
Taxes to GDP are ~25%, about half of Denmark and the other not-imploding eurosocialist states.
We're going to have to start growing up here someday.
So what did we learn from the Gr. elections?
People want to stay in the Euro, and will accept but not like the austerity. But those people are mostly over 40 or in biz. The youngers will try to escape, further underming the tax base, and the olders think they have protected their assets, but the evidence is that they probably never can meet the debt burden even with major growth (which appears very unlikely given the perceived relocatability of the youngers.
Forming a government that is credible to Greeks and the rest of the world is going to be very difficult, perhaps impossible.
I think the EU/EMU will try to trap/prevent the greeks from leaving their country, causing major harm to the EMU and further degradation of other economies.
sporkfed wrote:
Anyway,
is my prediction for tomorrow.
Men have died and worms have eaten 5hem, but not for love. I FORGET WHO.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
+10 for your analysis.
So will the Greeks start putting their euros back in the bank tomorrow?
Outsider wrote:
In which country?
Outsider wrote:
Ummm, no.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Adblock plus is free and effective. Who requested ads? Are they still commenting?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Self-serving "admission", inadmissible....sorry.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
It was recomended so Bill could have an income from the site to pay for the site.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Imagine if we locked Okies in Oklahoma circa 1930s? Californians would have been in favor of that - Oklahomans not so much. Who guards the borders?
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
You mean on this blog? I haven't seen anything terribly offensive here - although they do seem to follow me around the Net. I went to a walk-in medical clinic in February, and got those for a while
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
Sounds about right to me.
Who guards the borders?
Poseidon?
Governments come and go, but football lasts.
Outsider wrote:
Tiresias?
Outsider wrote:
You don't care about journalist slant? Everyone talks his book. You do. I do. CR does.
Argos?
Outsider wrote:
Good one. The results mean they have more reason every day to continue to vote with their feet and transfers.
Haralambos wrote:
Who uttered a terrible warning to Creon.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
It was that or some kind of paid subscription like access - the band width cost was significant.
I remember the discussions as they were unfolding - it was also on a rather shaky blog service - the comments were crashing all the time.
It was easy to keep 'free' the first few years when no one was here but that changed as the crisis went from 'theoretical' to 'actually happening'. Early threads there would be like eight total comments over two days.
So Venizelos and Fotis seem to be arranging terms for a 4-party cabinet. Have you heard anything from Tsirpas to indicate that he'd bargain for a cabinet office?
One would hope he and his mentors have thought out how to spend SYRIZA political capital, as it were, on a vulnerable but popular dossier, say, health and human services --or the Gr. equivalent.
Greek election despatch: no panic, no fear, no hope - Telegraph
Winning!
Tom Stone wrote:
Don't worry Mr. Stone as you are in a Nuclear Free Zone.
Mary wrote:
What about changing the Greek alphabet to Fraktur?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Runes...
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Is like spanking the monkey....?
dryfly wrote:
Made in China.
I remember reading in the comments here or another blog that the Greeks were
saving their euros and putting all purchases on the credit card. Sounds like they
are getting ready to default on a personal basis if not on a national basis.
merchants of fear wrote:
Tebowing...
Mary wrote:
Sorry, Mary, I have no idea. At this point it seems that much is up in the air. The foreign press loves to speculate as does the domestic press here--pretty much the same the world over in my experience (not that I am all that cosmopolitan). I think there will be a lot of horse-trading and posturing. My uneducated take is that at some point the Germans will say, "Take a hike." When I say "uneducated," I am not being falsely modest. I just do not know enough to say with any confidence.
See, I just bought a waist pack, and just now I see an ad for a waist pack at the bottom of the screen.
Uncanny.
merchants of fear wrote:
Are negative numbers infinite?
Outsider wrote:
Actually your a paragon of rationality compared to most.
Mr Slippery wrote:
Haralambos wrote:
Ditto.
Sometimes ordinary humans really rise to the occasion. Max Yasgur ["I'm a farmer....] just about stole the show at Woodstock.
Only because I only speak about 1% of my mind.
josap wrote:
Yes, I am one who encouraged him. And Ad Block works just fine...
I'm voting for whoever it is that promises me a jetpack.
"Eric wrote:
Sun, 06/17/2012 - 3:03pm
sez: +60, bitchez."
It could higher or lower by tomorrow's open.
Outsider wrote:
So where in the Eastern Block did you live?
JimPortlandOR wrote:
That most of the financial/politically learned individuals are mental lightweights.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
When they finally realize it is far cheaper to bailout their own banks then it is to bail out the whole of Club Med.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Well that's what you are hoping for.
"I'm voting for whomever it is that promises me a jetpack."
Try adblock plus. Then random ads don't pop up in the discussion.
dryfly wrote:
The first hundred comment thread shocked me. It was like being on HBB, with the exception of the quality.
Tom Stone wrote:
He & HCN is one of the few sites I turn ad block off - so the revenue clicks through.
Woman calls husband in Moscow at his office, late 80s.
-You'll never guess what I read in the papers today. It's amazing. People can say anything now.
-Really? What was it?
-Later. I can't tell you over the phone.