I think the jump in "month of supply" will be sharper.
I have been looking the last few weeks on many for sale homes in the internet. It is amzing how many of them, as seen by the inside photos, are empty.
I am guessing that some of those that the photos don't show them as empty are by now empty as well. There must be millions of empty homes in the country and this will not change soon.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, yesterday said the value of its collateralized debt obligations, securities backed by bonds and loans, dropped $1.56 billion, or 29 percent, to $3.79 billion in the second quarter.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, yesterday said the value of its collateralized debt obligations, securities backed by bonds and loans, dropped $1.56 billion, or 29 percent, to $3.79 billion in the second quarter. Goldman's fixed-income revenue fell 24 percent because of home loan delinquencies, the New York-based firm bank said in its quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
GS paid 16.5 MM in bonuses for 2006 and earned 9.5 MM in profits. So they can swing a loss of 1.5 MM and still have plenty left over. The equity markets are doing great, so I imagine GS is still doing very well there. This is more a harbinger; GS is doing the proverbially right thing that every trader is supposed to do, mark his book to his best estimate of correct value. Others will now have to follow.
It's estimated at about 2 Trillion, but the extent of the losses cited shows that the estimate is lacking. I think the growth of derivatives based on, correlated with or aligned with subprimes moves the real number up to at least double that.
There is also the reality of a vastly overstated commercial risk-layered market. Some of GS' writedowns probably stem from that.
Just looking at the "notational values" line on banking reports is enough to make a person such as myself pop a sweat.
Hello everyone. I've been lurking this great blog since I found it a couple of weeks ago. Definitely a cut above the other housing blogs.
I have a question about an issue that I saw blogged about a lot a few months ago re: IRS form 1099 (?) and so-called "jingle mail," where the FB sends the lender the keys along with a deed in lieu of foreclosure on the negative equity house he just vacated.
The example I heard was the FB took out a million and the lender sells it for 800. The lender writes off the 200 and sends the FB a 1099 for the 200. The FB then has to pay taxes (how much?) on the 200. I'll also assume the FB did a HELOC and bought cars, jewelry and vacations with the illusory equity. Well, I think we all know a vacation can't be repo-ed...but the cars and jewelry can. Anybody know how all this works? Who gets first crack at the personal property? How is it disposed of? TIA.
Is my buddy screwed by his dad and broker friend here in MD ????
His dad owes 0 on the home, 20 years old and vacant. Broker is golfing buddy. Broker hires Dad and "lets his loan to his son be the first one he does"
email from friend:
"we close at the end of the month. we ended up getting a VA loan for $417k $400k to my dad for the house, and @ $15k for closing. my dad is taking out a home equity loan for $25k to pay for all the remodeling we've done. so we will pay on the mortgage and the equity loan. the reason for that was the 80/20 loan we were going to do had a higher rate for the "20" portion and my dad was able to get the home equity loan at 5.9% rather than us pay 9 or 10% for the second loan."
"nonetheless, we're still going to have our target pymt of no more than $3300 between the two loans. the appraisal that was done yesterday should come in a little over $500k (hopefully $525k) and we will refinance in the next 6-12 months. "
"the appraisal was done by some guy that Dads mortgage and finance sent out. the reason XXXX told him we needed the appraisal to be at or above $500k was because that will be the appraised amount used for any subsequent refi's. "
San Diego County is the national laboratory for credit: its home price to income ratio (above 10) virtually ensures that every "affordability" credit innovation is rolled out there first. So how is the county fairing post credit-tightening in subprime and alt-a?
Sales
Jim the Realtor tells us pendings are down to 2300 currently. That's roughly 1000 (given fallouts) existing SFR closings in each of the next two months, down from 1500 pace this spring. A 33% drop-off during a normal seasonal pick-up.
We're on track for around 840 in June compared to a 600 pace in the prior months and 400 in Jan/Feb, 12 at the trough and 589 at the prior 90's peak. A doubling this year, and a (again) 33% pick-up in June. At over 800, that's roughly 33% (again!) of monthly existing home sales for the county. Only most of them haven't hit the MLS yet: the banks/servicers are holding back, which means they may flood the market at some point this summer.
Inventory
Inventory is roughly flat with last year. Listings have dropped off dramatically. IMO, this means move-ups are canceling their plans given the difficulty of selling. As sales continue to fall, months of inventory will rise even while inventory remains constant. The wildcard is how much additional foreclosure inventory will come one this summer.
Bottom-line: Foreclosures have accelerated, as one would expect. If they reach 1000/mo. in the coming months, that will likely equal 40% of existing sales. One would expect much more discounting were that to happen. For SD prices to reach peak affordability index levels, they would have to fall by another 40% (assuming no income growth).
CR, did you see ADP's very strong June employment forecast at as cited by Bloomberg?
150,000 total new jobs, with:
" Today's report showed a gain of 163,000 jobs among service industries. Employment at goods-producing companies, which include manufacturers and construction firms, dropped 13,000.
Payrolls at companies employing more than 499 workers fell by 4,000 last month. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, added 63,000 jobs and small companies increased payrolls by 91,000."
This is more in line with the ISM reports. However, once again the initial claims came out higher, and now continuing claims (both SA and NSA) are running about 100,000 over the last year.
As with everything else, employment data is confusing.
Not that I have anything against exotic dancers, the profession, I am sure, has a long and noble history, but this collision (maybe collusion) of journalism and mortgage brokering, makes for a heady brew:
Covered,
1099-C is issued for forgiveness of debt. If the mortgagor (bank) wrote down the morgage with the mortgage holder, the mortgage holder will get a 1099. If the bank resold the mortgage for less than the balance or had to revalue it for GAAP purposes, that's the bank's problem.
Lance,
I don't know about the property, so I can't say if he's getting hosed. One thing, though. Why not borrow the 20% from his father? Why not borrow the whole 100%?? Your friend will likely get a better rate, will keep his tax deduction for interest, and dad will get the same if not better interest than CD rates.
housingtracker.net's latest figures shows week-over-week inventory up between 1 and 2.2 percent in most of the CA, FL, and Pacific NW markets that it tracks -- and in Ohio, for some reason.
Based on the public MLS websites for Monmouth County NJ, at the end of May 07 listings (8331) were 7.9% higher than May 06 (7720). During the month listings grew by about 5 percent (7923) on May 1.
I don't have sales numbers so I don't have a month's supply measurement.
Prices here rose considerably during the boom, and while median income is about twice the national average, the median home price is more than that, with existing SFH's median around $500K and new coming in at $780K in O6.
1099-C is issued for forgiveness of debt. If the mortgagor (bank) wrote down the morgage with the mortgage holder, the mortgage holder will get a 1099. If the bank resold the mortgage for less than the balance or had to revalue it for GAAP purposes, that's the bank's problem.
How does the gov't feel entitled to any money, if the bank can't collect on it?---
CR, did you see ADP's very strong June employment forecast at as cited by Bloomberg?
ISM services also came out very strong. This is consistent with the torrents of easy money flowing into US business in conjunction with recent rapid rise in stock prices.
Alas, most of these companies ultimately service the consumer somewhere down the chain, so when the capacity and supply they're building up runs headlong into a consumer hobbled by a credit crunch, things could get nasty.
Joe Six Pack, alas, cannot issue junk bonds. At least not yet.
Kett82:
She was 22 and tired of exotic dancing for a living.... "All along I feel like they were just screwing me over and they knew what they were doing," Thomas said...."And they don't have no idea the work that comes behind it."
"How does the gov't feel entitled to any money, if the bank can't collect on it?---"
The government feel entitled to the money becuase they view it as income. And government can collect better than the bank becuase they have already set up IRS to tap into everyone's salary etc. Bank is a business entity and they weight the pro and con of collecting debt. Government doesn't have this kind of rule, they just keep trying to collect until the person die. IRS win probably 99% of the time.
The bank receives a tax deduction for the write-down of debt. The borrower gains from the write-off and is taxed.
lama | 07.05.07 - 11:29 am
lama,
that's the way I understand it. Going further, is the borrower taxed at normal long term, short term capital gains rates or is the gain taxed as income? Does it depend on whether or not the property was a primary residence or an income investment? And as to any tangible personal property bought with the gain, is it seizable to satisfy a tax lien? (my guess would be yes.) Sorry for the multiple questions, but it seems like the hypothetical borrower here would fit the profile of a lot of real people facing some tough times.
Lehman cuts off Option One.
"In a late Tuesday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, H&R Block said Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) did not renew a "warehouse" facility with the subprime unit, Option One Mortgage Corp., after it expired June 28.
The facility provided at least $1 billion of borrowing capacity, according to regulatory filings. Its non-renewal left Option One with $8 billion of committed borrowing capacity and $2 billion of uncommitted capacity, H&R Block said.
Cerberus Capital Management LP, the private equity firm that agreed in April to buy Option One, required the unit to maintain at least $8 billion of warehouse capacity through the closing date, expected in October."
Have you checked out interest rates today? Currently the 10 yr yield is up 7 bps. I wonder if it's related to the BOE raising rates 25bp.
More M&A announcements and very strong jobs and economic data I think are the primary culprits. Plus the stock market is trying to break out into a meltup again. BOE doesn't help.
Covered,
The forgiveness of debt is ordinary income subject to state and federal, but not social security tax (unearned income).
Usually, the purchase of RE and financing of RE are completely separate for tax treatment purposes. The issue becomes complex when there is seller financing or related parties in the transactions. Rather than write a book here, I can tell you the most common exceptions to the above rule are "Installment Sales" and "Wrap-around mortgages" which can play with the basis in the property. Maybe you can Google those. Both are more common in commercial RE deals....but, these are interesting times, so who knows going forward??
BTW, there's a muse about tax accountants. Whatever your question, the answer is "that depends". The reason for "that depends" is the 100,000 tax code that is supposed to cover every topic, address every special interest group and close all loopholes forseen or that people have succesfully exploited.
So, be careful about running too far with any tax info you hear from me or anyone else. Every situation required individual analysis (thank God, I wouldn't want to have to work for a living).
these are interesting times, so who knows going forward??
lama | 07.05.07 - 12:17 pm | #
Indeed. I hear ya about writing a book here. Some very complex issues that have to be dealt with, sooner or later. I think that's prolly why we're all here. Just glad I sold in '05 and don't find myself an unlucky FB. Even if they eventually find redemption, I seriously doubt the personal grief will have been worth it.
Cheers.
Well my buds uncle owns the exact same house down the street , he has already reodled, has had it listed for 459K for 3 months. The 459K is the largest asking price in that neighborhood. His dad is not above taking 3 ysp on his own son. Broker friend says even with DC area housing downturn and record high inventory, and no sales movement, this house will be worth over 500K "i gaurantee it" in a subdivision that is so old it has true aluminum siding and detererorrating houses..... He also think s that his broker will refi with a 6-12 month appraisal. With all the new regs, wouldn't the refi lender send its own appraisor...and wouldnt VA send an appraisor out as well????? Notice they havent closed or locked in yet...
Just have the broker friend put that guarantee in writing and your friend should be all set. Otherwise, according to CR's article here, your friend could also consider purchasing one of the other 4,999,999 homes currently for sale.
I think these numbers coupled with those from the latest MBA study that showed 2006 originations to be even more heavily-skewed to subprime lending point to further pain for the housing market and inventory.
If we know that 2006 relied heavily on subprime originations for volume (supposedly a portion of that from first time homebuyers and homebuyers of dubious credit risk); and we know that most of that subprime money is now gone - then it is easy to see how inventory will continue to pile up with no ability for the lending industry to keep up the artificial demand any longer.
Subprime-related debt made up about 45 percent of the collateral backing the $375 billion of CDOs sold in the U.S. in 2006, data compiled by Moody's Investors Service and New York- based Morgan Stanley show.
I think the jump in "month of supply" will be sharper.
I have been looking the last few weeks on many for sale homes in the internet. It is amzing how many of them, as seen by the inside photos, are empty.
I am guessing that some of those that the photos don't show them as empty are by now empty as well. There must be millions of empty homes in the country and this will not change soon.
Bond Risk May Soar in Europe on Subprime Losses, UniCredit Says - Bloomberg.com
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, yesterday said the value of its collateralized debt obligations, securities backed by bonds and loans, dropped $1.56 billion, or 29 percent, to $3.79 billion in the second quarter.
Bumping to this threas as I think it is important
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, yesterday said the value of its collateralized debt obligations, securities backed by bonds and loans, dropped $1.56 billion, or 29 percent, to $3.79 billion in the second quarter. Goldman's fixed-income revenue fell 24 percent because of home loan delinquencies, the New York-based firm bank said in its quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Bond Risk May Soar in Europe on Subprime Losses, UniCredit Says - Bloomberg.com
REBear | 07.05.07 - 2:52 am | #
Is this Goldman news an earthquake ?
29%, 24% sounds a lot.
rebear- sorry for the double post...
btw, china stock market goes no where for two month:
| Charts - Yahoo! Finance
down the last two days:
| Charts - Yahoo! Finance
That's OK yal. No bonuses at GS this time?
GS paid 16.5 MM in bonuses for 2006 and earned 9.5 MM in profits. So they can swing a loss of 1.5 MM and still have plenty left over. The equity markets are doing great, so I imagine GS is still doing very well there. This is more a harbinger; GS is doing the proverbially right thing that every trader is supposed to do, mark his book to his best estimate of correct value. Others will now have to follow.
Cioffi's Hero-to-Villain Hedge Funds Masked Bear Peril in CDOs - Bloomberg.com
I wonder how many more hedge redumptions we don't hear about ?
To add about GS: Actually the change in value may not be due to a remarking. GS may just have got rid of some of its sludge and so it has less.
GS may just have got rid of some of its sludge and so it has less.
To who???
subprime is how big?
"Subprime is how big"
It's estimated at about 2 Trillion, but the extent of the losses cited shows that the estimate is lacking. I think the growth of derivatives based on, correlated with or aligned with subprimes moves the real number up to at least double that.
There is also the reality of a vastly overstated commercial risk-layered market. Some of GS' writedowns probably stem from that.
Just looking at the "notational values" line on banking reports is enough to make a person such as myself pop a sweat.
Hello everyone. I've been lurking this great blog since I found it a couple of weeks ago. Definitely a cut above the other housing blogs.
I have a question about an issue that I saw blogged about a lot a few months ago re: IRS form 1099 (?) and so-called "jingle mail," where the FB sends the lender the keys along with a deed in lieu of foreclosure on the negative equity house he just vacated.
The example I heard was the FB took out a million and the lender sells it for 800. The lender writes off the 200 and sends the FB a 1099 for the 200. The FB then has to pay taxes (how much?) on the 200. I'll also assume the FB did a HELOC and bought cars, jewelry and vacations with the illusory equity. Well, I think we all know a vacation can't be repo-ed...but the cars and jewelry can. Anybody know how all this works? Who gets first crack at the personal property? How is it disposed of? TIA.
Check out this site for the latest on subprime news.
Subprime News
CR,
are you considering adjusting your peak estimate upwards?
how to move a house 101:
Is my buddy screwed by his dad and broker friend here in MD ????
His dad owes 0 on the home, 20 years old and vacant. Broker is golfing buddy. Broker hires Dad and "lets his loan to his son be the first one he does"
email from friend:
"we close at the end of the month. we ended up getting a VA loan for $417k $400k to my dad for the house, and @ $15k for closing. my dad is taking out a home equity loan for $25k to pay for all the remodeling we've done. so we will pay on the mortgage and the equity loan. the reason for that was the 80/20 loan we were going to do had a higher rate for the "20" portion and my dad was able to get the home equity loan at 5.9% rather than us pay 9 or 10% for the second loan."
"nonetheless, we're still going to have our target pymt of no more than $3300 between the two loans. the appraisal that was done yesterday should come in a little over $500k (hopefully $525k) and we will refinance in the next 6-12 months. "
"the appraisal was done by some guy that Dads mortgage and finance sent out. the reason XXXX told him we needed the appraisal to be at or above $500k was because that will be the appraised amount used for any subsequent refi's. "
San Diego County is the national laboratory for credit: its home price to income ratio (above 10) virtually ensures that every "affordability" credit innovation is rolled out there first. So how is the county fairing post credit-tightening in subprime and alt-a?
Sales
Jim the Realtor tells us pendings are down to 2300 currently. That's roughly 1000 (given fallouts) existing SFR closings in each of the next two months, down from 1500 pace this spring. A 33% drop-off during a normal seasonal pick-up.
bubbleinfo.com » Page not found
Prices
The SD Case-Shiller index is down 7% from the peak.
Foreclosures
This site tracks SD foreclosures
InnoVest's Foreclosure Forum
We're on track for around 840 in June compared to a 600 pace in the prior months and 400 in Jan/Feb, 12 at the trough and 589 at the prior 90's peak. A doubling this year, and a (again) 33% pick-up in June. At over 800, that's roughly 33% (again!) of monthly existing home sales for the county. Only most of them haven't hit the MLS yet: the banks/servicers are holding back, which means they may flood the market at some point this summer.
Inventory
Inventory is roughly flat with last year. Listings have dropped off dramatically. IMO, this means move-ups are canceling their plans given the difficulty of selling. As sales continue to fall, months of inventory will rise even while inventory remains constant. The wildcard is how much additional foreclosure inventory will come one this summer.
Bottom-line: Foreclosures have accelerated, as one would expect. If they reach 1000/mo. in the coming months, that will likely equal 40% of existing sales. One would expect much more discounting were that to happen. For SD prices to reach peak affordability index levels, they would have to fall by another 40% (assuming no income growth).
CR, did you see ADP's very strong June employment forecast at as cited by Bloomberg?
150,000 total new jobs, with:
" Today's report showed a gain of 163,000 jobs among service industries. Employment at goods-producing companies, which include manufacturers and construction firms, dropped 13,000.
Payrolls at companies employing more than 499 workers fell by 4,000 last month. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, added 63,000 jobs and small companies increased payrolls by 91,000."
This is more in line with the ISM reports. However, once again the initial claims came out higher, and now continuing claims (both SA and NSA) are running about 100,000 over the last year.
As with everything else, employment data is confusing.
Dear All and maybe Tanta, especially:
Not that I have anything against exotic dancers, the profession, I am sure, has a long and noble history, but this collision (maybe collusion) of journalism and mortgage brokering, makes for a heady brew:
'Straw buyer' deals fuel tidal wave of foreclosures | StarTribune.com
Tanta hope you are doing well,
Best regards,
Covered,
1099-C is issued for forgiveness of debt. If the mortgagor (bank) wrote down the morgage with the mortgage holder, the mortgage holder will get a 1099. If the bank resold the mortgage for less than the balance or had to revalue it for GAAP purposes, that's the bank's problem.
Lance,
I don't know about the property, so I can't say if he's getting hosed. One thing, though. Why not borrow the 20% from his father? Why not borrow the whole 100%?? Your friend will likely get a better rate, will keep his tax deduction for interest, and dad will get the same if not better interest than CD rates.
housingtracker.net's latest figures shows week-over-week inventory up between 1 and 2.2 percent in most of the CA, FL, and Pacific NW markets that it tracks -- and in Ohio, for some reason.
Based on the public MLS websites for Monmouth County NJ, at the end of May 07 listings (8331) were 7.9% higher than May 06 (7720). During the month listings grew by about 5 percent (7923) on May 1.
I don't have sales numbers so I don't have a month's supply measurement.
Prices here rose considerably during the boom, and while median income is about twice the national average, the median home price is more than that, with existing SFH's median around $500K and new coming in at $780K in O6.
Zip Realty doesn't cover the NJ markets... But I do.
Northern NJ - via GSMLS (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties) - Collectively the NJ side of the NYC metro area:
YOY Change in Inventory:
May 2006 - 19,208
May 2007 - 22,310
16.1% Increase
MOM Change in Inventory:
April 2007 - 20,857
May 2007 - 22,310
7% Increase
For those interested, Northern NJ Sales and Inventory data can be found here:
http://www.njrereport.com/files/SalesInvOverlay.xls (Large file warning)
For those familiar with the area, Morris is included as well, my mistake.
jb
Lindsey, where can I find that public MLS data? Can it be broken down by town? thanks
1099-C is issued for forgiveness of debt. If the mortgagor (bank) wrote down the morgage with the mortgage holder, the mortgage holder will get a 1099. If the bank resold the mortgage for less than the balance or had to revalue it for GAAP purposes, that's the bank's problem.
How does the gov't feel entitled to any money, if the bank can't collect on it?---
CR, did you see ADP's very strong June employment forecast at as cited by Bloomberg?
ISM services also came out very strong. This is consistent with the torrents of easy money flowing into US business in conjunction with recent rapid rise in stock prices.
Alas, most of these companies ultimately service the consumer somewhere down the chain, so when the capacity and supply they're building up runs headlong into a consumer hobbled by a credit crunch, things could get nasty.
Joe Six Pack, alas, cannot issue junk bonds. At least not yet.
More on this later.
Does anyone regularly track household formation numbers ?
Kett82:
She was 22 and tired of exotic dancing for a living.... "All along I feel like they were just screwing me over and they knew what they were doing," Thomas said...."And they don't have no idea the work that comes behind it."
....much irony in this little piece
"How does the gov't feel entitled to any money, if the bank can't collect on it?---"
The government feel entitled to the money becuase they view it as income. And government can collect better than the bank becuase they have already set up IRS to tap into everyone's salary etc. Bank is a business entity and they weight the pro and con of collecting debt. Government doesn't have this kind of rule, they just keep trying to collect until the person die. IRS win probably 99% of the time.
Hey folks trouble brewing for Moody, S&P and Fitch
Ohio's attorney general is investigating the role that credit-rating agencies like Moody's played in rubberstamping dicey bonds, report Fortune's Katie Benner and Adam Lashinsky.
Joe Six Pack, alas, cannot issue junk bonds. At least not yet.
ac: interesting business idea! I am sure it would be highly endorsed by the auto companies!
Called_Bluff,
The bank receives a tax deduction for the write-down of debt. The borrower gains from the write-off and is taxed.
here is the link :
AG investigating credit agencies role in subprime losses - Jul. 5, 2007
Uh-oh, forget about Joe Sixpack junk bonds for the nonce. This article about an iPhone dying after only 4 days made me fear for AC's sanity!!
The bank receives a tax deduction for the write-down of debt. The borrower gains from the write-off and is taxed.
lama | 07.05.07 - 11:29 am
lama,
that's the way I understand it. Going further, is the borrower taxed at normal long term, short term capital gains rates or is the gain taxed as income? Does it depend on whether or not the property was a primary residence or an income investment? And as to any tangible personal property bought with the gain, is it seizable to satisfy a tax lien? (my guess would be yes.) Sorry for the multiple questions, but it seems like the hypothetical borrower here would fit the profile of a lot of real people facing some tough times.
Have you checked out interest rates today? Currently the 10 yr yield is up 7 bps. I wonder if it's related to the BOE raising rates 25bp.
Lehman cuts off Option One.
"In a late Tuesday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, H&R Block said Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) did not renew a "warehouse" facility with the subprime unit, Option One Mortgage Corp., after it expired June 28.
The facility provided at least $1 billion of borrowing capacity, according to regulatory filings. Its non-renewal left Option One with $8 billion of committed borrowing capacity and $2 billion of uncommitted capacity, H&R Block said.
Cerberus Capital Management LP, the private equity firm that agreed in April to buy Option One, required the unit to maintain at least $8 billion of warehouse capacity through the closing date, expected in October."
MxeOutMA1A
ip pOs+ig on tehg iPhone® ri9(t now
it"s gre^t!!!1111
Have you checked out interest rates today? Currently the 10 yr yield is up 7 bps. I wonder if it's related to the BOE raising rates 25bp.
More M&A announcements and very strong jobs and economic data I think are the primary culprits. Plus the stock market is trying to break out into a meltup again. BOE doesn't help.
Covered,
The forgiveness of debt is ordinary income subject to state and federal, but not social security tax (unearned income).
Usually, the purchase of RE and financing of RE are completely separate for tax treatment purposes. The issue becomes complex when there is seller financing or related parties in the transactions. Rather than write a book here, I can tell you the most common exceptions to the above rule are "Installment Sales" and "Wrap-around mortgages" which can play with the basis in the property. Maybe you can Google those. Both are more common in commercial RE deals....but, these are interesting times, so who knows going forward??
BTW, there's a muse about tax accountants. Whatever your question, the answer is "that depends". The reason for "that depends" is the 100,000 tax code that is supposed to cover every topic, address every special interest group and close all loopholes forseen or that people have succesfully exploited.
So, be careful about running too far with any tax info you hear from me or anyone else. Every situation required individual analysis (thank God, I wouldn't want to have to work for a living).
these are interesting times, so who knows going forward??
lama | 07.05.07 - 12:17 pm | #
Indeed. I hear ya about writing a book here. Some very complex issues that have to be dealt with, sooner or later. I think that's prolly why we're all here. Just glad I sold in '05 and don't find myself an unlucky FB. Even if they eventually find redemption, I seriously doubt the personal grief will have been worth it.
Cheers.
lama,
Well my buds uncle owns the exact same house down the street , he has already reodled, has had it listed for 459K for 3 months. The 459K is the largest asking price in that neighborhood. His dad is not above taking 3 ysp on his own son. Broker friend says even with DC area housing downturn and record high inventory, and no sales movement, this house will be worth over 500K "i gaurantee it" in a subdivision that is so old it has true aluminum siding and detererorrating houses..... He also think s that his broker will refi with a 6-12 month appraisal. With all the new regs, wouldn't the refi lender send its own appraisor...and wouldnt VA send an appraisor out as well????? Notice they havent closed or locked in yet...
Just have the broker friend put that guarantee in writing and your friend should be all set. Otherwise, according to CR's article here, your friend could also consider purchasing one of the other 4,999,999 homes currently for sale.
did we merge with Ben's Bubble Blog?
Joe Mortgage,
I collect the data from three public MLS sites
You can find them here:
Monmouth Real Estate - Find Homes in Monmouth at REALTOR.com
I do have the information broken down by region going back to Sept. 05, but I have not kept it by town.
I think these numbers coupled with those from the latest MBA study that showed 2006 originations to be even more heavily-skewed to subprime lending point to further pain for the housing market and inventory.
If we know that 2006 relied heavily on subprime originations for volume (supposedly a portion of that from first time homebuyers and homebuyers of dubious credit risk); and we know that most of that subprime money is now gone - then it is easy to see how inventory will continue to pile up with no ability for the lending industry to keep up the artificial demand any longer.
2006 was a last gasp.
This quote...wow...45%:
Subprime-related debt made up about 45 percent of the collateral backing the $375 billion of CDOs sold in the U.S. in 2006, data compiled by Moody's Investors Service and New York- based Morgan Stanley show.