"reconcile our wounded innocence with our seasoned vigilance"
I love that line, too. (as does Hiding in NM, I see).
Trust us, we're the Pros from Dover, but we were completely surprised by this... that is a tough position to be in.
"[B]y God we weren't going to stop issuing more of it until the rating agencies told us what we already knew. It's not like we're going to do anything based on our own analysis."
"Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit."
ABX indices melting as we speak.....ABX BBB- 07-2 last quoted at 45 1/2 mid.....other tranches taking similiar beatings ...there are alot of hedges being established as some participants expect the bear stearns pricing tonight aftr the close. some sales might be in anticipation of the inaugaration of trading of 07-2 product later this weeek. whatever the case it is ugly....
Don't worry about the rising stock market. It's happening for a load of reasons, including a weakening dollar and still low interest rates.
Bond traders must be smoking crack thinking the Fed is going to decrease rates. Once they get the complete picture, the bond market will sell-off causing the stock market to break it's blow-off top and the dollar may rally some to support it's low support level.
NEW YORK(Dow Jones)--Even with the absence of negative subprime-related headlines that have roiled the markets in the past few weeks, the index based on subprime mortgages is hitting new lows on Monday.
The riskiest tranche of the current index, the BBB- of the ABX.HE 07-1, touched 45 cents on the dollar in morning trade, according to Alex Pritchartt, a trader at UBS.
"The stuff is a lot softer," Pritchartt said. "Sellers want to offset risk and sell the stuff."
Trading volume is up but is not unusually heavy, he noted.
The ABX index series is linked to 20 subprime home equity loans through a basket of credit default swaps. The index is often used to place bets on the slowdown in the housing market and to express views on how poorly the subprime sector is likely to perform.
Those who expect the deterioration of subprime mortgage loans to lead to defaults buy protection on the index. Such buying pressures the index wider.
Last week, as ratings agencies downgraded or put on watch more than a thousand mortgage bonds, the index became volatile and moved into record low territory.
Some hedge fund managers who trade the index say they expect the value of the lower tranches of the index to go as low as zero. They also point to the fact that the higher tranches of the most recent index based on loans made in the second half of 2006 are coming under pressure.
A new index, based on loans made in the first half of 2007, is due to launch on July 19.
"The 07-2 will trade below par on July 19," said Andrew Lahde, managing partner of Lahde Capital Management, a hedge fund in Santa Monica, Calif. "The single-A tranche is trading at about 70 cents on the dollar whereas it had been 90 cents on the dollar just a month ago."
i work in the bond market and have access to dealer quotes.....there is no transparency intra day other than dealer quotes...the bid offer spread is very wide.....but real!!
Shortbuster,
in case you didn't see it, i posted about you in the Stockpuppets thread on Saturday. the "short" of it is i think you're a hedge fund manager with an attitude. please correct me if i'm wrong.
The Zimbabwe model suggests this market will explode to 20k and higher still - an engineered madness that cannot be stopped. Like a jumbo jet having run out of fuel mid-flight over a vast ocean, fully-loaded with the blood and treasure of an empire, it careens in silence and darkness with all aboard praying for not one, but three miracles - that it may reach land, that it land, and that it may land safely. Like a catchy pop tune, I just can't get it out of my head: YouTube
- Housing Bubble: Market Crashing? Yes, In Slow Motion. [itulip's crash video]
Where do you get the real-time ABX? I've been looking around and Markit only seems to update at EOD.
On the CFC issue, somebody bought a monster put for the July $30 last week (13,000 contracts.) So this is either one heck of a speculative die toss, or somebody knows something. That would be basically a 8% haircut with 5 trading days left to put these in the money.
Observing a very strange phenomenon in the Shanghai Stock market. It seems that when US stocks is up overnight, the Shanghai index is most down and vice versa.
It seems that the there is a invisible hand, sending a subtle message that China stock market is independent of the US market and running very much on its own momentum.
For the record, the Shanghai index is down over 2% today...
The American consumers is 20% of the Global economy.
The main driver to why I have been bearish on stocks (Admittedly much too early), was my belief that the US consumers contributed over 40% of the profit of listed companies worldwide.
True enough, there are over 1 billion people in China and 600 million in India, a large part of their income goes to basic essentials which does not contribute very much to the profit of listed co. like Microsoft, HP or FedEx etc.
Rice, pork and cooking oil and other grains, gasoline are what they consume which is seeing significant inflation.
The Chinese are using alot of pirated software, CDs and counter fit "Ralph Lauren", "Coach", "Gucci" and others.
The exceptions would be fast food chain like Macdonald, KFC, Burger King and maybe even Starbucks.
i work in the bond market and have access to dealer quotes.....there is no transparency intra day other than dealer quotes...the bid offer spread is very wide.....but real!!
jsquaredone | 07.16.07 - 12:07 pm | #
you're right. i apologize. i really am curious about that guy though.
it really does look like i'll be right about this HB squeeze though and what really gets me worked up is all the innocent investors who get hurt by these manipulations. many of you don't believe markets are manipulated but all you have to do is float a rumor and actually believe and follow Cramers script. the only ones who can take advantage of this is hedge funds or prop desks, not any of us. that makes it unfair. i really am for the little guy even though i personally have more resources than average.
I find the mistakes in this post troubling. There will be no talk of "seasoned vigilance" for the foreseeable future.
We're into "wounded innocence" 24-7. We were had plain and simple, those crafty mortgage brokers in cahoots with the bond rating agencies hoodwinked us. Why just the other day I saw them twisting another banker's arm. Twisting it hard, I swear.
Oh, also, what's this talk of Martha's Vinyard. It's the Hamptons, silly.
I'm more inclined to think that there are a couple of "mortgage guys" who are sitting on some uncomfortable chairs in some upper-floor conference rooms across from some accounting guys who have that look on their sour little faces
It's when those uncomfortable chairs in conference rooms are secret conference rooms somewhere in Eastern Europe that we know that the crash is about to happen.
It bears repeating,
"I'm shocked! Shocked, to find out that there is GAMBLING going on in this establishment!"
"Your winning sir."
"Thank you."
Wonderful juxtaposition!
"reconcile our wounded innocence with our seasoned vigilance".
Thanks Tanta
oh my poor HOV, down 4.32%
"reconcile our wounded innocence with our seasoned vigilance"
I love that line, too. (as does Hiding in NM, I see).
Trust us, we're the Pros from Dover, but we were completely surprised by this... that is a tough position to be in.
the Dow is desperately trying to hit 14,000 to generate more headlines and pull everyone into the party
"[B]y God we weren't going to stop issuing more of it until the rating agencies told us what we already knew. It's not like we're going to do anything based on our own analysis."
Sound bankers to the end.
"Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit."
Gordon Gekko
idoc,
The market will not crash until the retail investors have been fleeced.
somebody call Shortbuster and tell him to give Buffett a microphone. my added shorts on BZH from Friday are going in the wrong direction.
I smell fear an Malox.
Art (Gekko) imitates life (Boesky):
"I think greed is healthy. You can be greedy and still feel good about yourself"
Quoted from a speech given at Cal Berkeley in 1986 by Ivan Boesky.
For those who don't recall, Boesky later cut a plea bargain for his crimes and was sentenced to 3+ year along with a $100 million fine.
idoc,
The market will not crash until the retail investors have been fleeced.
I think this is correct, but if people start to expect a "summer melt-up" that blows out all the small-time shorts, then it may well not happen.
If the liquidity in corporate credit dries up, then it's just a matter of time until stocks get hit, but often times these things end in a spike.
My thinking is that the more obvious the direction of the market, the more dangerous it gets.
If you see a pile of 20 dollar bills in the middle of the floor just begging to be taken, that's when you really have to worry.
Remember NASDAQ 3500. It was clear that those stocks were grossly overvalued and would probably drop by half. Alas, nothing's easy in the markets.
"The market will not crash until the retail investors have been fleeced"
=
"The housing market will not slow down until unemployment goes up"
ABX indices melting as we speak.....ABX BBB- 07-2 last quoted at 45 1/2 mid.....other tranches taking similiar beatings ...there are alot of hedges being established as some participants expect the bear stearns pricing tonight aftr the close. some sales might be in anticipation of the inaugaration of trading of 07-2 product later this weeek. whatever the case it is ugly....
Can you say "lock-up" in the MBS market? Still contained, just a bigger container required.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=64a409e7-6d35-4e74-92a2-1a51580b10fc
"However, they also say that construction employment may already have fallen by 160,000 jobs below what's being reported in the current payroll data."
jsquaredone where do get the real time abx data?
Don't worry about the rising stock market. It's happening for a load of reasons, including a weakening dollar and still low interest rates.
Bond traders must be smoking crack thinking the Fed is going to decrease rates. Once they get the complete picture, the bond market will sell-off causing the stock market to break it's blow-off top and the dollar may rally some to support it's low support level.
Just off the wires (well 5 mins ago)
NEW YORK(Dow Jones)--Even with the absence of negative subprime-related headlines that have roiled the markets in the past few weeks, the index based on subprime mortgages is hitting new lows on Monday.
The riskiest tranche of the current index, the BBB- of the ABX.HE 07-1, touched 45 cents on the dollar in morning trade, according to Alex Pritchartt, a trader at UBS.
"The stuff is a lot softer," Pritchartt said. "Sellers want to offset risk and sell the stuff."
Trading volume is up but is not unusually heavy, he noted.
The ABX index series is linked to 20 subprime home equity loans through a basket of credit default swaps. The index is often used to place bets on the slowdown in the housing market and to express views on how poorly the subprime sector is likely to perform.
Those who expect the deterioration of subprime mortgage loans to lead to defaults buy protection on the index. Such buying pressures the index wider.
Last week, as ratings agencies downgraded or put on watch more than a thousand mortgage bonds, the index became volatile and moved into record low territory.
Some hedge fund managers who trade the index say they expect the value of the lower tranches of the index to go as low as zero. They also point to the fact that the higher tranches of the most recent index based on loans made in the second half of 2006 are coming under pressure.
A new index, based on loans made in the first half of 2007, is due to launch on July 19.
"The 07-2 will trade below par on July 19," said Andrew Lahde, managing partner of Lahde Capital Management, a hedge fund in Santa Monica, Calif. "The single-A tranche is trading at about 70 cents on the dollar whereas it had been 90 cents on the dollar just a month ago."
You can't make stuff like this up.
I think I get it, finally...
1 in 12 Workers Admits Using Drugs
They all work on Wall Street.
i work in the bond market and have access to dealer quotes.....there is no transparency intra day other than dealer quotes...the bid offer spread is very wide.....but real!!
btw, effectivly CFC issued a warning today...
Shortbuster,
in case you didn't see it, i posted about you in the Stockpuppets thread on Saturday. the "short" of it is i think you're a hedge fund manager with an attitude. please correct me if i'm wrong.
Rosneft Pulls $2B Euro Issue Due To Mkt Conditions - Report
Last update: 7/16/2007 11:48:05 AM
KKR Cancels $1.4 Billion Sale of Loans for Maxeda LBO (Update4) - July 16 (Bloomberg)
Astroc cancels 20 pct of 930 mln eur syndicated loan
07.13.07, 6:17 AM ET (Forbes)
who/waht is "shortbuster" - would love to hear more what he/she has to say and what you think about it.
if jsquaredone is accurate, i suspect ppl are expecting bad news from BSC
Yal,
go to Stock puppet thread and see my posts.
The Zimbabwe model suggests this market will explode to 20k and higher still - an engineered madness that cannot be stopped. Like a jumbo jet having run out of fuel mid-flight over a vast ocean, fully-loaded with the blood and treasure of an empire, it careens in silence and darkness with all aboard praying for not one, but three miracles - that it may reach land, that it land, and that it may land safely. Like a catchy pop tune, I just can't get it out of my head: YouTube
- Housing Bubble: Market Crashing? Yes, In Slow Motion. [itulip's crash video]
jsquaredone,
Where do you get the real-time ABX? I've been looking around and Markit only seems to update at EOD.
On the CFC issue, somebody bought a monster put for the July $30 last week (13,000 contracts.) So this is either one heck of a speculative die toss, or somebody knows something. That would be basically a 8% haircut with 5 trading days left to put these in the money.
Shortbuster,
time to engineer another short squeeze on CFC!
Sorry, meant to say 18% haircut not 8%.
Observing a very strange phenomenon in the Shanghai Stock market. It seems that when US stocks is up overnight, the Shanghai index is most down and vice versa.
It seems that the there is a invisible hand, sending a subtle message that China stock market is independent of the US market and running very much on its own momentum.
For the record, the Shanghai index is down over 2% today...
We are leaving in interesting time.
They all work on Wall Street.
Not all them I know a couple that work in nuclear power plants.
The American consumers is 20% of the Global economy.
The main driver to why I have been bearish on stocks (Admittedly much too early), was my belief that the US consumers contributed over 40% of the profit of listed companies worldwide.
True enough, there are over 1 billion people in China and 600 million in India, a large part of their income goes to basic essentials which does not contribute very much to the profit of listed co. like Microsoft, HP or FedEx etc.
Rice, pork and cooking oil and other grains, gasoline are what they consume which is seeing significant inflation.
The Chinese are using alot of pirated software, CDs and counter fit "Ralph Lauren", "Coach", "Gucci" and others.
The exceptions would be fast food chain like Macdonald, KFC, Burger King and maybe even Starbucks.
i work in the bond market and have access to dealer quotes.....there is no transparency intra day other than dealer quotes...the bid offer spread is very wide.....but real!!
jsquaredone | 07.16.07 - 12:07 pm | #
idoc,
You are coming off a little obsessed. Drop Shortbuster. (S)he doesn't matter.
ams16,
you're right. i apologize. i really am curious about that guy though.
it really does look like i'll be right about this HB squeeze though and what really gets me worked up is all the innocent investors who get hurt by these manipulations. many of you don't believe markets are manipulated but all you have to do is float a rumor and actually believe and follow Cramers script. the only ones who can take advantage of this is hedge funds or prop desks, not any of us. that makes it unfair. i really am for the little guy even though i personally have more resources than average.
idoc
Your emotions are going to get your head handed to you, be careful. Im not long or short just and this is just an observation.
Tanta has quite the wit, wouldn't want to be on her bad side.
I find the mistakes in this post troubling. There will be no talk of "seasoned vigilance" for the foreseeable future.
We're into "wounded innocence" 24-7. We were had plain and simple, those crafty mortgage brokers in cahoots with the bond rating agencies hoodwinked us. Why just the other day I saw them twisting another banker's arm. Twisting it hard, I swear.
Oh, also, what's this talk of Martha's Vinyard. It's the Hamptons, silly.
I'm more inclined to think that there are a couple of "mortgage guys" who are sitting on some uncomfortable chairs in some upper-floor conference rooms across from some accounting guys who have that look on their sour little faces
It's when those uncomfortable chairs in conference rooms are secret conference rooms somewhere in Eastern Europe that we know that the crash is about to happen.
"We're the Pros from Dover..." Oh, my gosh. Dolly Parton once sang a song about a fellow from Dover.
Omri-
That's funny, the ABX has just fallen off The Cliffs of Dover. Look at the pretty rubble.
Tanta,
You crack me up.