C-BASS Update: The July Margin Massacre

I guess there is no AHM news yet? I was looking through AHM news at yahoo and found:

Marathon plans new subprime fund: Hedge fund firm readies new vehicle to buy distressed mortgage assets

The new fund, the Marathon Distressed Sub-Prime Fund, will begin taking commitments from investors in August,
[...]
The new Distressed Sub-Prime fund will have some unusual features, including a defined investment period that ends in roughly two years. It will also take 20% of any profit, but Marathon will only get that fee once the investor gets the principal back, Richards explained. (Hedge funds usually charge so-called 20% performance fees every year).

So, a new fad begins?

I have to say that I was impressed that Marathon dubbed it the "Distressed Subprime Fund." Guess they learned something from Bear Stearns' marketing department (i.e., "High Grade" might come back to bite you).

"High Grade" might come back to bite you

Hmm, so they put in their warnings in the fund name itself?

Nice CYA.

Stock futures striking up the band for a frantic up day... another melt up in the works?

J&J to cut 4% of work force:

All right, it is starting. Remember, employment is a lagging indicator, it drops when economy is already in a sharp decline for a while.

No news yet on AHM. What I am expecting is that AHM got caught up in the same kind of margin squeeze that C-BASS did. The difference would be that C-BASS was at least braced for impact with the submerged portion of the iceberg (AHM, one suspects, was distracted by the shiny object), and C-BASS immediately fessed up to MGIC and Radian, who immediately fessed up to shareholders (with a worst-case confession). AHM has, apparently, tried to deny its way through the month of July and now has a little bit of a problem getting a report out.

Good news? Corporate Bond Risk Drops By Record, Halting Three-Day Rout

Credit-default swaps on 10 million euros ($13.8 million) of debt included in the iTraxx Crossover Series 7 Index of 50 European companies tumbled 75,000 euros to 388,000 euros, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The index jumped to as much as 507,000 euros yesterday, after rising for three days. The CDX North American Investment-Grade Index fell $9,000 to $63,000, Deutsche Bank AG prices show. The index traded at as high as $103,250 yesterday.

They credit GMAC's results and Sowood selling to Citadel....

Indy Mac earnings came out.

Earnings are down 57% from year ago. They made $0.60/share and are paying a dividend of $0.50/common share plus a preferred share dividend of $0.62/share. It doesn't seem like they'll have much left over. I think they'll be forced to cut their dividend.

"The CDX North American Investment-Grade Index fell $9,000 to $63,000, Deutsche Bank AG prices show. The index traded at as high as $103,250 yesterday"

PPT getting out the screwdriver to turn a few adjustment screws, and voila?

MGIC/Radian report they may write off $1BN on CBass

Quote of the Day (hat tip our informant "G")

"Sowood Funds Lose More Than 50% as Debt Markets Fall", by Jenny Strasburg and Katherine Burton, Bloomberg, July 31, 2007.

``It's mind-boggling,'' said Bradley Alford, a former investment manager at the Duke University endowment who runs Atlanta-based money-management firm Alpha Capital Management LLC. ``This last week, the velocity of losses has picked up dramatically. The models work when they look at history, but not when history is all new.''

"no change in the underlying fundamentals of our portfolio." That may be the 16th dumbest thing we have ever heard.

Journeyman, I'm not as optimistic as you are.

I believe that they got an actual margin increase. In other words, after having accounted for the deterioration of the portfolio as of the end of June, they're still having to bring those credit lines down even further.

If you assume they're lying here about that, you are underestimating the terror of a credit crunch.

"The models work when they look at history, but not when history is all new."

Reminds me of Yogi Berra's, "it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

The level of uncertainty is way up and that translates into perception of increased risk because no one wants to be left holding the bag; that means margin call.

As credit spreads increase what else can one do on deals already made at lower spreads except try to cash out (if that option is available)?

RW,
I agree with your comment, with the exception that I would say that the perception of the level of uncertainty has changed. The uncertainty has always been there, but people have been ignoring it because they saw others making a lot of money.

The demise or severe wounding of C-Bass may have significant repercussions for the mortgage market and residential real estate prices beyond the loss of a mere 1 Billion of corporate equity.

C-Bass was in a small niche called the “scratch and dent market”. Saul Sanders, who I originally met when he worked at Citicorp, started the business around 1995. A year or two after they started the company, I was running a mortgage warehouse (repo) operation. We had about 300 million of “Badly Dented Product” that was hard to get rid of at any price. C-Bass was virtually the only bidder-- they knew it but they offered a fair price (which of course included a healthy profit for them). They knew they could have ripped our face off but they didn’t. The reason was, I believe that first, Saul was a man of deliberation and integrity; and second he knew his business well enough that he could make a handsome, honest profit without the extra oomph.

I haven’t spoken to him in a loooong time, but My impression is he survived, grew and enjoyed a sterling reputation on Wall Street over the years. He was the one who provided liquidity for problem loans. Litton Servicing out of Texas added to operation. He made money because he knew how to resolve problems. So the industry in general, always knew they had a fair bidder to handle the problem loans and the real estate. With that player gone or severely cut back, a Significant amount of liquidity and expertise is withdrawn from the Marketplace in Exactly the area it is needed today. This is not a Hedge fund gone under, in my perception the Company added value and stability to the mortgage industry.

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